Ken Cordell (USDA Forest Service)a,
Vanessa Lane (Univ. of Georgia)b,
& Gary Green (Univ. of Georgia)c
aPioneering
Research Scientist
USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Athens, GA.
bPostdoctoral Research Associate & cAssociate Professor
UGA, Warnell School of Forestry Resources, Athens, GA.
Introduction
 Review population & demographic trends & futures of the
three major countries of the North American (NA)
Continent
 Overview research on linkages between population
demographics & environmental values, attitudes &
behaviors
 Based on projections of population growth &
demographic change, speculate about possible challenges
for natural resources & wildlife conservation education
Overview
 NA includes Mexico, the United
States & Canada (not Greenland)
 Together, a total area of almost 8.5
million mi2
 Combined population ~ 460 million
 Growth ~1%/yr, = ~4.6 million/yr
 6% of annual world growth
North America
Mexico & U.S.
Mexico: pop’n ~113 million
 Economy dependent on oil, gas, & agriculture
 GDP per capita < $9,000 U.S.
 Literacy rate = 92%
Galleristny.com
United States: pop’n ~ 312 million
 Major industries = oil, gas, steel, motor
vehicles, aerospace, electronics, & chemicals
 Total land area ~ 3.8 million mi2, 3rd largest in
world
 GDP per capita > $36,000
 Literacy rate = 97%
Globalmotors.net
Canada
Canada: pop’n ~ 32 million
 Economy dependent on manufacturing
and agriculture
 80% of trade is with U.S.
 GDP per capita = $29 - $30,000
 Literacy rate = 97%
World Context
 World pop’n may ≥ 9.2 billion by
2075, then slowly decline
 By 2050, world pop’n projected
to grow from 7 to 8.9 billion, a
28% increase in < 40 years
 Average annual growth rate over
first half of 21st Century will be
0.77%, lower than 1.76% seen
from 1950-2000
Newint.org
 Less developed regions will
be ~99% of growth
Population Trends in North America
600
Canada
United States
Mexico
North America
Millions
500
400
300
200
100
0
1950
2000
2050
Demographic Trends in Mexico
 Increasing Urbanization –






Esp. Large Cities
33% under 15 yrs of age
Increasing net migration
Decreasing fertility rates
Decreasing family size
Increasing literacy & education
More women in workforce
u.arizona.edu
www-cs-faculty.stanford.edu
Demographic Trends in US
 Increasing urbanization
 Increasing immigration
 Greater diversification of population
 Hispanics, Latinos, Asians
 Increasing population growth
 Increasing cohorts of 44-54, 55-65,
65+
 More women in workforce
digital.library.unt.edu
Demographic Trends in Canada
 Increasing urbanization
 Increasing ethno-cultural diversity of population
 Increasing net immigration
 Decreasing family size
 More women in workforce
 Increasing cohorts of 45+
canada0123.com
Linkages Between Environmental
Values, Attitudes, & Beliefs
Five Critical Factors:
1. Shifting demographics
2. Aging population
3. Increasing education level
4. Increasingly urban population
5. Increasing internet & social media
mayflowerpark.com
How will these factors affect public values, attitudes, beliefs, &
even behaviors toward environmental issues?
Factor 1: Shifting Demographics
 Between 2040-2050, combined size of minority
populations will be the majority in NA
 Two main groups:
 Asians: (esp. Chinese & Korean) fastest growing group
in Canada, second fastest in U.S.
 Hispanics/Latinos: 21-31% of U.S. pop’n by 2050.
Granger Wootz
Factor 1: Shifting Demographics
Asians (Chinese, Koreans):
 More collective society than Whites
 Pro-environmentalists tend to have
“altruistic” or “egoistic” environmental
concerns
 Dominant philosophy emphasizes
harmony with nature
 May be more willing to adapt to
American environmental attitudes than
Hispanics or Blacks
 Social/environmental values may
homogenize with Whites over time
Marketplace.org
soenyun.com
Factor 1: Shifting Demographics
Hispanics/Latinos:
 More collective society than
Whites
 Pro-environmentalists have
“altruistic” concerns
 “Human-in-nature” view
 Generally answer polls in a more
pro-environmental manner
 Social/environmental values may
homogenize with Whites over
time, depending upon immersion
www.reclink.us
hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu
Factor 2: Aging Population
 Conservatism positively correlated with
increasing age
 Babyboomer generation more utilitarian,
but more conservative resource use,
e.g. “frugal”
Seniorcitizens-inc.org
 Environmental issues of lower priority than
others, such as economy & health care
 Less use of wilderness areas, more
emphasis on easy access recreation
Outdoorafro.com
Factor 3: Increasing Education
 Education is positively correlated
with environmental concern
 Higher education linked with
increased income
 Higher education linked with
biospheric & altruistic
environmental values
 More women attaining higher
degrees
Factor 4: Increasingly Urbanized
 Youth becoming less environmentally
friendly, (e.g. “Nature Deficit Disorder”)
 Increasingly separated from nature
 May be more supportive of preservation
than conservation
 Limited exposure to nature may limit
understanding of environmental
processes
 Future funding through hunting/fishing
licenses & taxes may be limited
Salon.com
japantimes.co.jp
Factor 5: Internet & Social Media
 NA alone accounts for 56% of
all Internet resources
 Social media probably most
influential factor of future
change
 Youth spend considerable time
using digital devices
 Social media critical tool for
future successful environmental
education, campaigns
Digitaljournal.com
One of the favorite outdoor activities of
today’s youth is using electronic devices
Outdoor Activity
Just playing or hanging out
Part.
(%)
84.0
Biking, jogging, walking,
skate boarding, etc.
79.9
Use e-devices, listen to
music, or watch movies
Playing or practicing team
sports
65.3
49.8
Source: National Kids Survey, USFS & UGA
Environmental Attitude Changes
 Hispanic/Latino & Asian growth may increase altruistic values
 Acculturation, higher incomes, & more consumptive lifestyles
may create more egoistic values
 Women modern roles may increase biospheric & altruistic values
 Moderated by aging population & associated greater
conservatism
 Young people less oriented to environmental issues
 Unclear how social networking will affect environmental attitudes
 May result in greater support & political push for issues
In Summary
 Long-term trends associated with cultural & ethnic-racial
demographic changes may in the net be less pro-environmental
 Gender, education, urbanization, aging, & generational trends
may make society somewhat less pro-environmental
 Net effect of above factors may be overcome by internet & social
media connectivity
 Rise in environmental concern and support by increased internet
& social media connectivity among people in NA & globally
 http://warnell.forestry.uga.edu/nrrt/nsre/NAWNRC.html