Finance 30210: Managerial Economics Strategic Pricing Techniques Recall that there is an entire spectrum of market structures Market Structures Perfect Competition Monopoly Many firms, each with zero One firm, with 100% market share market share P = MC Profits = 0 (Firm’s earn a P > MC Profits > 0 (Firm’s earn reasonable rate of return on invested capital) excessive rates of return on invested capital) NO STRATEGIC NO STRATEGIC INTERACTION! INTERACTION! Most industries, however, don’t fit the assumptions of either perfect competition or monopoly. We call these industries oligopolies Oligopoly Relatively few firms, each with positive market share STRATEGIES MATTER!!! Wireless (2002) US Beer (2001) Music Recording (2001) Verizon: 30% Cingular: 22% AT&T: 20% Sprint PCS: 14% Nextel: 10% Voicestream: 6% Anheuser-Busch: 49% Miller: 20% Coors: 11% Pabst: 4% Heineken: 3% Universal/Polygram: 23% Sony: 15% EMI: 13% Warner: 12% BMG: 8% Market shares are not constant over time in these industries! Airlines (1992) Airlines (2002) American 21 United 20 15 Delta Northwest Continental 11 US Air 9 14 American 19 United 17 15 Delta Northwest 11 Continental 9 SWest 7 While the absolute ordering didn’t change, all the airlines lost market share to Southwest. Another trend is consolidation Retail Gasoline (1992) 9 Shell Chevron 8 8 8 Texaco Exxon Amoco 7 7 Mobil 5 5 4 4 24 Exxon/Mobil Shell 20 BP/Amoco/Arco 18 Chev/Texaco 16 10 6 BP Citgo Marathon Sun Phillips Retail Gasoline (2001) 7 Total/Fina/Elf Conoco/Phillips The key difference in oligopoly markets is that price/sales decisions can’t be made independently of your competitor’s decisions Monopoly Q QP Your Price (-) Oligopoly Q QP, P1 ,...PN Your N Competitors Prices (+) Oligopoly markets rely crucially on the interactions between firms which is why we need game theory to analyze them! Continuous Choice Games Consider the following example. We have two competing firms in the marketplace. These two firms are selling identical products. Each firm has constant marginal costs of production. What are these firms using as their strategic choice variable? Price or quantity? Are these firms making their decisions simultaneously or is there a sequence to the decisions? Cournot Competition: Quantity is the strategic choice variable There are two firms in an industry – both facing an aggregate (inverse) demand curve given by p P 120 20Q D Q Total Industry Production Q q1 q2 Both firms have constant marginal costs equal to $20 From firm one’s perspective, the demand curve is given by P 120 20q1 q2 120 20q2 20q1 Treated as a constant by Firm One Solving Firm One’s Profit Maximization… MR 120 20q2 40q1 20 100 20q2 q1 40 100 20q2 q1 40 In Game Theory Lingo, this is Firm One’s Best Response Function To Firm 2 q2 If firm 2 drops out, firm one is a monopolist! P 120 20q1 MR 120 40q1 20 q1 2.5 0 q2 0 q1 2.5 q1 100 20q2 q1 40 What could firm 2 do to make firm 1 drop out? q2 P 120 205 20 MC q2 5 q1 0 q2 0 q1 2.5 q1 P 120 20Q q2 100 20q2 q1 40 P 120 204 40 q2 5 q1 0 Firm 2 chooses a production target of 3 3 1 Firm 1 responds with a production target of 1 q2 0 q1 2.5 q1 1 401 201 20 2 403 203 60 The game is symmetric with respect to Firm two… P 120 20Q q2 100 20q1 q2 40 P 120 203 60 q1 0 q2 2.5 Firm 2 responds with a production target of 2 q1 5 q2 0 Firm 1 chooses a production target of 1 q1 1 601 201 40 2 602 202 80 Eventually, these two firms converge on production levels such that neither firm has an incentive to change 100 20q2 q1 40 q2 100 20q1 q2 40 100 201.67 1.67 40 Firm 1 We would call this the Nash equilibrium for this model q2* 1.67 Firm 2 q1* 1.67 q1 Recall we started with the demand curve and marginal costs P 120 20Q MC 20 q1* q2* 1.67M P 120 20(3.33) $53.33 1 53.331.67 201.67 $55.66 2 53.331.67 201.67 $55.66 The markup formula works for each firm P 120 20q2 20q1 86.6 20q1 MC $20 Q* 1.67 M P 86.6 20(1.67) $53.33 Q P 1 53.33 1.6 P Qi 20 1.67 MC p 1 1 $20 $53.33 1 1 1.6 Had this market been serviced instead by a monopoly, P 120 20Q MC $20 Q* 2.5M P 120 20(2.5) $70 Q P 1 70 1.4 P Q 20 2.5 MC p 1 1 $20 $70 1 1 1 .4 Had this market been instead perfectly competitive, P 120 20Q MC $20 Q* 5M P 120 20(2.5) $20 MC p 1 1 $20 $20 1 1 P 120 20Q MC $20 Monopoly Q* 2.5M P $70 LI .71 HHI 10,000 2 Firms Q 3.33M q 1.67 P $53 LI .62 HHI 5,000 Perfect Competition Q* 5M P $20 LI 0 HHI 0 Recall, we had an aggregate demand and a constant marginal cost of production. P 120 20Q MC $20 Monopoly Q* 2.5M P $70 LI .71 HHI 10,000 CS = (.5)(120 – 70)(2.5) = $62.5 p $120 $62.5 $70 D What would it be worth to consumers to add another firm to the industry? 2.5 Q Recall, we had an aggregate demand and a constant marginal cost of production. P 120 20Q MC $20 Two Firms CS = (.5)(120 – 53)(3.33) = $112 p Q 3.33M q 1.67 P $53 $112 $53 LI .62 HHI 5,000 D 3.33 Q Suppose we increase the number of firms…say, to 3 P 120 20q1 q2 q3 P 120 20Q Demand facing firm 1 is given by (MC = 20) P 120 20q2 20q3 20q1 MR 120 20q2 20q3 40q1 20 q1 100 20q2 20q3 40 The strategies look very similar! With three firms in the market… P 120 20Q MC $20 CS = (.5)(120 – 45)(3.75) = $140 Three Firms p qi 1.25M Q 3q 3.75 P $45 LI .55 HHI 3,267 $140 $45 D 3.75 Q Expanding the number of firms in an oligopoly – Cournot Competition P A BQ MC c Ac qi ( N 1) B N A c Q ( N 1) B A N P c N 1 N 1 N = Number of firms Note that as the number of firms increases: Output approaches the perfectly competitive level of production Price approaches marginal cost. Increasing Competition 6 80 70 5 60 4 50 3 40 30 2 20 1 10 0 0 Number of Firms Firm Sales Industry Sales Price Increasing Competition 300 250 200 150 100 50 Num ber of Firm s Consumer Surplus Firm Profit Industry Profit 97 93 89 85 81 77 73 69 65 61 57 53 49 45 41 37 33 29 25 21 17 13 9 5 1 0 The previous analysis was with identical firms. P 120 20Q MC $20 100 20q2 q1 40 100 20q1 q2 40 Suppose Firm 2’s marginal costs increase to $30 q2 Firm 1 q2* 1.67 50% Firm 2 q1* 1.67 50% q1 P 120 20Q MC $30 q2 Suppose Firm 2’s marginal costs increase to $30 P 120 20q1 20q2 MR 120 20q1 40q2 30 90 20q1 q2 40 If Firm one’s production is unchanged 90 201.67 q2 1.41 40 q2* 1.67 1.41 Firm 2 q1* 1.67 q1 90 20q1 100 20q2 q2 q1 40 40 Q 1.33 1.83 3.16 P 120 203.16 $56.8 1 56.81.83 201.83 67.34 q2 2 56.81.33 301.33 35.64 Firm 1 HHI 42 2 582 5128 LI .65 q2 1.33 42% Firm 2 q 1.83 * 1 58% q1 Firm 2’s market share drops Firm 1’s Market Share increases The previous analysis (Cournot Competition) considered quantity as the strategic variable. Bertrand competition uses price as the strategic variable. p Should it matter? P* D Q* P 120 20Q Industry Output Q Just as before, we have an industry demand curve and two competing duopolies – both with marginal cost equal to $20. Firm level demand curves look very different when we change strategic variables Bertrand Case Quantity Strategy Q 6 .05 P P 120 20q2 20q1 p p1 120 20q2 p2 D q1 If you are underpriced, you lose the whole market At equal prices, you split the market D q1 If you are the low price you capture the whole market Price competition creates a discontinuity in each firm’s demand curve – this, in turn creates a discontinuity in profits if p1 p2 0 6 .05 p1 1 p1 , p2 ( p1 20) if p1 p2 2 ( p 20)(6 .05 p ) if p p 1 1 2 1 As in the cournot case, we need to find firm one’s best response (i.e. profit maximizing response) to every possible price set by firm 2. Firm One’s Best Response Function Case #1: Firm 2 sets a price above the pure monopoly price: p2 pm p1 pm Case #2: Firm 2 sets a price between the monopoly price and marginal cost pm p2 20 p1 p2 Case #3: Firm 2 sets a price below marginal cost 20 p2 p1 p2 Case #4: Firm 2 sets a price equal to marginal cost c p2 p1 p2 c What’s the Nash equilibrium of this game? Monopoly Q* 2.5M P $70 LI 2.5 HHI 10,000 2 Firms Q 5M q 2.5 P $20 LI 0 HHI 5,000 Perfect Competition Q* 5M P $20 LI 0 HHI 0 However, the Bertrand equilibrium makes some very restricting assumptions… Firms are producing identical products (i.e. perfect substitutes) Firms are not capacity constrained An example…capacity constraints Consider two theatres located side by side. Each theatre’s marginal cost is constant at $10. Both face an aggregate demand for movies equal to Q 6,000 60 P Each theatre has the capacity to handle 2,000 customers per day. What will the equilibrium be in this case? Q 6,000 60 P If both firms set a price equal to $10 (Marginal cost), then market demand is 5,400 (well above total capacity = 2,000) Note: The Bertrand Equilibrium (P = MC) relies on each firm having the ability to make a credible threat: “If you set a price above marginal cost, I will undercut you and steal all your customers!” 4,000 6,000 60P P $33.33 At a price of $33, market demand is 4,000 and both firms operate at capacity With competition in price, the key is to create product variety somehow! Suppose that we have two firms. Again, marginal costs are $20. The two firms produce imperfect substitutes. p p1 40 q1 2 80 Example: p1 p2 40 q2 80 p2 40 p 80 q1 1 .0125 p1 D q1 Recall Firm 1 has a marginal cost of $20 1 ( p1 20) p2 p1 40 80 Firm 1 profit maximizes by choice of price p1 30 .5 p2 Each firm needs to choose price to maximize profits conditional on the other firm’s choice of price. p2 Firm 2 sets a price of $50 Firm 1’s strategy D $30 Firm 1 responds with $55 p1 With equal costs, both firms set the same price and split the market evenly p1 30 .5 p2 p2 30 .5 p1 p2 Firm 1 Firm 2 $60 $30 $30 $60 p1 q1 .50 p1 $60 q2 .50 p2 $60 Monopoly Q* 2.5M P $70 LI .71 HHI 10,000 2 Firms P $60 LI .66 HHI 5,000 Perfect Competition Q* 5M P $20 LI 0 HHI 0 Suppose that Firm two‘s costs increase. What happens in each case? p1 p2 40 2 ( p2 20) 80 Bertrand p2 Firm 2 $30 p1 With higher marginal costs, firm 2’s profit margins shrink. To bring profit margins back up, firm two raises its price Suppose that Firm two‘s costs increase. What happens in each case? p2 With higher marginal costs, firm 2’s profit margins shrink. To bring profit margins back up, firm two raises its price Firm 1 Firm 2 p1 A higher price from firm two sends customers to firm 1. This allows firm 1 to raise price as well and maintain market share! Cournot (Quantity Competition): Competition is for market share Firm One responds to firm 2’s cost increases by expanding production and increasing market share Best response strategies are strategic substitutes Bertrand (Price Competition): Competition is for profit margin Firm One responds to firm 2’s cost increases by increasing price and maintaining market share Best response strategies are strategic complements Bertrand p2 Cournot q2 Firm 1 Firm 1 Firm 2 Firm 2 p1 q1 Stackelberg leadership In the previous example, firms made price/quantity decisions simultaneously. Suppose we relax that and allow one firm to choose first. P 120 20Q MC 20 Both firms have a marginal cost equal to $20 Firm 1 chooses its output first Firm 2 chooses its output second Market Price is determined Firm 2 has observed Firm 1’s output decision and faces the residual demand curve: P 120 20q1 20q2 q2 q2 5 q1 0 MR 120 20q1 40q2 20 100 20q1 q2 40 q2 0 q1 2.5 q1 Knowing Firm 2’s response, Firm 1 can now maximize its profits: P 120 20q2 20q1 100 20q1 q2 40 P 70 10q1 MR 70 20q1 20 q1 2.5 Firm 1 produces the monopoly output! q1 2.5 100 20q1 q2 1.25 40 Q 3.75 P 120 203.75 $45 1 452.5 202.5 62.50 2 451.25 201.25 31.25 2 Firms Monopoly Q* 2.5M P $70 LI .71 HHI 10,000 Q 3.75M q1 2.5 (67%) q2 1.25 (33%) P $45 LI .55 HHI 5,587 Perfect Competition Q* 5M P $20 LI 0 HHI 0 Sequential Bertrand Competition We could also sequence events using price competition. p2 p1 40 q1 80 p1 p2 40 q2 80 Both firms have a marginal cost equal to $20 Firm 2 chooses its price first Firm 2 chooses its price second Market sales are determined Recall Firm 1 has a marginal cost of $20 p2 p1 40 1 ( p1 20) 80 p2 30 .5 p1 From earlier, we know the strategy of firm 2. Plug this into firm one’s profits… .5 p1 70 1 ( p1 20) 80 Now we can maximize profits with respect to firm one’s price. Sequential Bertrand Competition p1 $80 p2 $70 q1 .38 q2 .62 2 Firms Monopoly Q* 2.5M P $70 LI .71 HHI 10,000 q1 .38 Perfect Competition q2 .62 Q* 5M P $75 LI .73 HHI 5,288 P $20 LI 0 HHI 0 Cournot vs. Bertrand: Stackelberg Games Cournot (Quantity Competition): Firm One has a first mover advantage – it gains market share and earns higher profits. Firm B loses market share and earns lower profits Total industry output increases (price decreases) Bertrand (Price Competition): Firm Two has a second mover advantage – it charges a lower price (relative to firm one), gains market share and increases profits. Overall, production drops, prices rise, and both firms increase profits.