The Services Sector in the Philippine System of National Accounts

advertisement
The Services Sector in the
Philippine System of National
Accounts (PSNA)
By
MARIA FE M. TALENTO
Division Head, Economic Statistics Office
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
1 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Outline of Presentation
I. Current PSNA
II. Scope/Coverage of the Services sector
III. Sources of Data
IV. Estimation Methodology
V. Issues/Concerns
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
2 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Current PSNA
Measurement of GDP: 3 approaches
• Production Approach, GDP (P)
• Expenditure Approach, GDP (E)
• Income Approach, GDP (I) (compiled
annually)
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
3 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Current PSNA
• Quarterly & Annual estimates: the PSNA
compilation uses the production &
expenditure approaches
• Both sides of the accounts are estimated
independently
• GDP growth rate is based on the
production accounts
• Constant Price estimates: uses the fixedbased year method
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
4 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Scope of the Services sector
•
•
•
Transportation, Communications and Storage
- Land transport
- Water transport
- Air transport
- Storage and Services Incidental to Transport
- Communication
Trade
- Wholesale
- Retail
Finance
- Banks
- Non-banks
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
5 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Scope of the Services sector
•
•
•
- Insurance
Ownership of Dwellings and Real Estate
- Ownership of Dwellings
- Real Estate
Private Services
- Educational
- Medical and Health
- Business
- Recreational
- Hotel and Restaurant
- Others
Government Services
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
6 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Main Source of Data
Census/Surveys from National Statistics
Office
- Census of Philippine Business & Industry
(CPBI)
- Annual Survey of Philippine Business
and Industry (ASPBI)
- Quarterly Survey of Philippine Business
and Industry (QSPBI)
- Quarterly Labor Force Survey (LFS)
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
7 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Other Sources of Data
• Administrative-based data
Quarterly Financial Reports from
- Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC) for key players of the Services sectors
TCS:
- Department of Trade and Communications
(data on the Metro Rail Transit; Light Rail
Transit Authority, Philippine National
Railways; Megatren
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
8 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Administrative-based Data
- Civil Aeronautics Board (for local airlines)
ODRE:
- National Disaster Coordinating Council
(report on Damages of totally destroyed
houses) indicator for housing reductions
- National Statistics Office
(approved building permits for residential
construction) indicator for housing additions
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
9 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Administrative-based Data
FINANCE:
- Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
(consolidated income and expense
statements of all banks)
- Insurance Commission
(income and expense statements of private
life and non-life insurance companies)
- Commission on Audit (COA)
(financial reports of Government Financial
Corporations and the Government Service
Insurance System (GSIS)
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
10 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Administrative-based Data
PRIVATE SERVICES:
- Department of Tourism
(hotel occupancy rate)
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
11 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Administrative-based Data
GOVERNMENT SERVICES:
- Dept. of Budget and Management
(actual cash disbursement; budget of expenditure
and sources of financing)-Quarterly
- Commission on Audit
(annual financial report for national and local gov’t )
- Social Security System and the Government Service
Insurance System (GSIS)
(annual financial reports)
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
12 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Other Sources of Data
• Industry Associations
Private Services:
- Business Processing Association of the
Philippines (BPAP)
(data on revenues and employment of
Business Processing Outsourcing (BPO)
companies
• Report of Private Companies
- Revenue of Selected Fast-Food Chains
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
13 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology
(excluding Ownership of Dwellings & Gov’t services)
Annual Estimates: GVA at Current
1. Organized sector:
GVAO = GO – II
where: GO = Gross Output
II = Intermediate Input
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
14 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology

Annual Estimates : GVA at Current
2. Unorganized sector:
GVAU = GVAES * (ELFS - EASPBI)
where:
GVAES = GVA per employee of small establishments from
the ASPBI
ELFS = Number of employed persons from the
Labor Force Survey (LFS)
EASPBI = Number of employed persons from the ASPBI
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
15 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology

Annual Estimates – GVA at Current Prices of
Services:
GVAt = GVA Organized + Unorganized
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
16 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Constant Price Estimation
-Single deflation using appropriate price
indices by sector
GVA K =
GVA k( O+U )
IPIN ij
where:
IPINij
= IPIN i(j-1) x Inflation Rate
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
17 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Current Price Estimation
In the absence of annual surveys, use:
Extrapolation using output indicator (Gross
Revenue from QSPBI) year-on-year growth
GVAij = GVAi(j-1) x QSPBI(gr) ij
where:
i = ith quarter
j = jth year
QSPBI(gr) = Revenue ij / Revenue I(j-1)
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
18 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Constant Price Estimation
TCS: CPI for transportation, CPI for
communication and CPI for storage
Trade:
Wholesale - Wholesale Price Index
Retail
- Retail Price Index
Finance, Real Estate and Private
Services : - CPI all items
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
19 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology
Ownership of Dwellings:
Annual Estimates : starts at GVA Constant
GVAk = GVAk (previous year) * trend of
Housing Stocks
where:
Housing stock (in sq/m) = housing stock of the
previous year + housing additions – housing
reductions
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
20 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology
Housing additions = housing additions of the
previous year * trend of the building permits
(floor area)
Housing reductions = number of totally damaged
houses * 15 sq/m
(15 sq/m represents the average size of housing
units that are most susceptible to total damages)
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
21 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology
Annual Estimates : GVA Current
GVAt = GVAk * IPINt
where:
IPINt = IPINt-1 * trend of CPI for rentals
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
22 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology
Government Services:
Annual Estimates : GVA at Current
GVA = CE + CCA + IT
where:
CE = compensation of employees
CCA = Depreciation
IT = Indirect Taxes
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
23 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Estimation Methodology
Government Services:
Annual Estimates: GVA at Constant prices
GVAk = GVAt
average earnings index
where:
average earnings index = total compensation divided
by the number of gov’t
employees
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
24 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Issues/Concerns
A. Data Problems
•
Time lag and consistency of survey results
B. Coverage Issue
Emerging Industries
Births and deaths of establishments
C. Measurement Problems (Methodological)
•
Measuring Quality Change
the case of high technology services
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
25 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
THANK YOU
International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting Beijing, China
26 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009
Republic of the Philippines
NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD
Download