The Services Sector in the Philippine System of National Accounts (PSNA) By MARIA FE M. TALENTO Division Head, Economic Statistics Office International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 1 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Outline of Presentation I. Current PSNA II. Scope/Coverage of the Services sector III. Sources of Data IV. Estimation Methodology V. Issues/Concerns International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 2 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Current PSNA Measurement of GDP: 3 approaches • Production Approach, GDP (P) • Expenditure Approach, GDP (E) • Income Approach, GDP (I) (compiled annually) International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 3 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Current PSNA • Quarterly & Annual estimates: the PSNA compilation uses the production & expenditure approaches • Both sides of the accounts are estimated independently • GDP growth rate is based on the production accounts • Constant Price estimates: uses the fixedbased year method International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 4 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Scope of the Services sector • • • Transportation, Communications and Storage - Land transport - Water transport - Air transport - Storage and Services Incidental to Transport - Communication Trade - Wholesale - Retail Finance - Banks - Non-banks International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 5 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Scope of the Services sector • • • - Insurance Ownership of Dwellings and Real Estate - Ownership of Dwellings - Real Estate Private Services - Educational - Medical and Health - Business - Recreational - Hotel and Restaurant - Others Government Services International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 6 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Main Source of Data Census/Surveys from National Statistics Office - Census of Philippine Business & Industry (CPBI) - Annual Survey of Philippine Business and Industry (ASPBI) - Quarterly Survey of Philippine Business and Industry (QSPBI) - Quarterly Labor Force Survey (LFS) International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 7 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Other Sources of Data • Administrative-based data Quarterly Financial Reports from - Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for key players of the Services sectors TCS: - Department of Trade and Communications (data on the Metro Rail Transit; Light Rail Transit Authority, Philippine National Railways; Megatren International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 8 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Administrative-based Data - Civil Aeronautics Board (for local airlines) ODRE: - National Disaster Coordinating Council (report on Damages of totally destroyed houses) indicator for housing reductions - National Statistics Office (approved building permits for residential construction) indicator for housing additions International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 9 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Administrative-based Data FINANCE: - Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (consolidated income and expense statements of all banks) - Insurance Commission (income and expense statements of private life and non-life insurance companies) - Commission on Audit (COA) (financial reports of Government Financial Corporations and the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 10 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Administrative-based Data PRIVATE SERVICES: - Department of Tourism (hotel occupancy rate) International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 11 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Administrative-based Data GOVERNMENT SERVICES: - Dept. of Budget and Management (actual cash disbursement; budget of expenditure and sources of financing)-Quarterly - Commission on Audit (annual financial report for national and local gov’t ) - Social Security System and the Government Service Insurance System (GSIS) (annual financial reports) International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 12 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Other Sources of Data • Industry Associations Private Services: - Business Processing Association of the Philippines (BPAP) (data on revenues and employment of Business Processing Outsourcing (BPO) companies • Report of Private Companies - Revenue of Selected Fast-Food Chains International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 13 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology (excluding Ownership of Dwellings & Gov’t services) Annual Estimates: GVA at Current 1. Organized sector: GVAO = GO – II where: GO = Gross Output II = Intermediate Input International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 14 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology Annual Estimates : GVA at Current 2. Unorganized sector: GVAU = GVAES * (ELFS - EASPBI) where: GVAES = GVA per employee of small establishments from the ASPBI ELFS = Number of employed persons from the Labor Force Survey (LFS) EASPBI = Number of employed persons from the ASPBI International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 15 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology Annual Estimates – GVA at Current Prices of Services: GVAt = GVA Organized + Unorganized International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 16 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Constant Price Estimation -Single deflation using appropriate price indices by sector GVA K = GVA k( O+U ) IPIN ij where: IPINij = IPIN i(j-1) x Inflation Rate International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 17 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Current Price Estimation In the absence of annual surveys, use: Extrapolation using output indicator (Gross Revenue from QSPBI) year-on-year growth GVAij = GVAi(j-1) x QSPBI(gr) ij where: i = ith quarter j = jth year QSPBI(gr) = Revenue ij / Revenue I(j-1) International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 18 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Constant Price Estimation TCS: CPI for transportation, CPI for communication and CPI for storage Trade: Wholesale - Wholesale Price Index Retail - Retail Price Index Finance, Real Estate and Private Services : - CPI all items International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 19 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology Ownership of Dwellings: Annual Estimates : starts at GVA Constant GVAk = GVAk (previous year) * trend of Housing Stocks where: Housing stock (in sq/m) = housing stock of the previous year + housing additions – housing reductions International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 20 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology Housing additions = housing additions of the previous year * trend of the building permits (floor area) Housing reductions = number of totally damaged houses * 15 sq/m (15 sq/m represents the average size of housing units that are most susceptible to total damages) International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 21 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology Annual Estimates : GVA Current GVAt = GVAk * IPINt where: IPINt = IPINt-1 * trend of CPI for rentals International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 22 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology Government Services: Annual Estimates : GVA at Current GVA = CE + CCA + IT where: CE = compensation of employees CCA = Depreciation IT = Indirect Taxes International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 23 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Estimation Methodology Government Services: Annual Estimates: GVA at Constant prices GVAk = GVAt average earnings index where: average earnings index = total compensation divided by the number of gov’t employees International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 24 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD Issues/Concerns A. Data Problems • Time lag and consistency of survey results B. Coverage Issue Emerging Industries Births and deaths of establishments C. Measurement Problems (Methodological) • Measuring Quality Change the case of high technology services International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 25 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD THANK YOU International Workshop From Data to Accounts: Measuring Production in National Accounting Beijing, China 26 MFM Talento/ 8-10-June 2009 Republic of the Philippines NATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD