MARKETING RESEARCH ESSENTIALS WITH DATA ANALYSIS IN EXCEL AND SPAA McDaniel │ Gates │ Sivaramakrishnan │ Main Chapter Ten: Primary Data Collection: Experimentation and Test Marketing LEARNING OBJECTIVES Chapter Ten: Primary Data Collection: Experimentation and Test Marketing • • • • Understand the nature of experiments Explain the requirements for proving causation Describe the experimental setting Explain experimental validity and discuss how researchers control for extraneous variables that might affect validity • Compare types of experimental designs • Understand test marketing • Explain the limitations of experimentation in marketing research What Is an Experiment? • Independent Variable: – • Dependent Variable: – • Sales, Customer Satisfaction Treatment: – • Price, Packaging, Distribution, Product, Advertising Independent variable manipulated to measure its effect on the dependent variable Extraneous Factors: – Things you do not control, such as the weather Demonstrating Causation • Determine whether a change in one variable likely caused an observed change in another • Causal relationships must show three things: 1. Concomitant variation 2. Appropriate time order of occurrence 3. Elimination of other possible causal factors Demonstrating Causation • Concomitant Variation: – A statistical relationship between variables • Appropriate Time Order of Occurrence: • Change in an independent variable occurred before an observed change in the dependent variable • Elimination of Other Possible Causal Factors: – No other independent variables are causing the change Experimental Setting • Laboratory: – Experiments conducted in a controlled setting • Field: – Tests conducted outside the laboratory in an actual environment, such as a marketplace Experimental Validity • Internal Validity: – The extent to which competing explanations for the experimental results observed can be ruled out. • External Validity: – The extent to which causal relationships measured in an experiment can be generalized to outside persons, settings, and times. Extraneous Variables • History: – Intervention, between beginning and end of experiment, of outside variables that might change the dependent variable • Maturation: – Changes in subjects occurring during the experiment not related to the experiment but which might affect subjects’ response to the treatment factor • Instrument Variation: – Changes in measurement instruments (e.g., interviews or observers) that might affect measurements Extraneous Variables • Selection Bias: – Systematic differences between the test group and the control group due to a biased selection process • Mortality: – Loss of test units / subjects during the course of an experiment • Testing Effect: – An effect that is a by-product of the research process • Regression to the Mean: – Tendency of subjects with extreme behaviour to move toward the average for that behaviour during the course of the experiment Controlling Extraneous Variables • Randomization – The random assignment of subjects to treatment conditions to ensure equal representation of subject characteristics • Physical Control – Holding constant the value or level of extraneous variables throughout the course of an experiment • Design Control – Use of experimental design to control extraneous causal factors • Statistical Control – Adjusting for effects of extraneous variables by adjusting the value or the dependant variable for each treatment condition Experimental Treatment and Effects • Experimental Design – A test in which the researcher has control over and manipulates one or more independent variables • Treatment Variable – The independent variable that is manipulated in an experiment • Experimental Effect – The independent variable that is manipulated in an experiment Experimental Terms • Test Group – Group is exposed to manipulation (change) of independent variable • Control Group – Group in which the independent variable is not changed – Group is used for comparison • Experimental Group – Effect of the treatment variable on the dependent variable Experimental Notation • “X” = Independent Variable: – Exposure of an individual or group to experimental treatment – Variable is something the researcher can change – Goal is to test if the change in the independent variable will cause a change in the dependent variable • “O” = Dependent Variable: – A variable the researcher cannot change directly – Test to see if changing the independent variable will result in changes to the dependent variable. – The dependent variable is “dependent” upon what the researcher does with the independent variable Selected Experimental Designs O = The Measurement of the Dependent Variable X = The Manipulation / Change of Independent Variable E = Experimental Effect: Change in Dependent Variable due to Change in the Independent Variable One-Shot Case Study Design • X O1 Change the independent variable, then measure the change in the dependent variable to see if there was, in fact, a change in the dependent variable that the researcher might conclude resulted from the change in the independent variable Selected Experimental Designs O = The Measurement of the Dependent Variable X = The Manipulation / Change of Independent Variable E = Experimental Effect: Change in Dependent Variable due to Change in the Independent Variable One-Group Pre-Test–Post-test Design • O1 X O2 Same as one-shot design except measure the dependent variable before the change in the independent variables. The researcher is establishing a benchmark from which to gauge the change. Selected Experimental Designs O = The Measurement of the Dependent Variable X = The Manipulation / Change of Independent Variable E = Experimental Effect: Change in Dependent Variable due to Change in the Independent Variable Before and After with Control Group Design Experimental Group: Control Group: O1 O3 X O4 O2 A true experimental design that involves random assignment of subjects or test units to experimental and control groups and pre- and post-measurements of both groups. Selected Experimental Designs O = The Measurement of the Dependent Variable X = The Manipulation / Change of Independent Variable E = Experimental Effect: Change in Dependent Variable due to Change in the Independent Variable After-Only with Control Group Design Experimental Group: Control Group: X O1 O2 Subjects in the experiment are randomly assigned to experiment and control groups. No pre-measurements of the dependent variable are taken. Quasi-Experiments • Interrupted Time-Series – Research in which repeated measurement of an effect “interrupts” previous data patterns • Multiple Time-Series: – Interrupted time-series design with a control group Test Markets: Types • • • • Standard Scanner Controlled Simulated (STM) Test Markets: Costs • Direct Costs: – – – – Advertising expenses Syndicated research Coupons, sampling, POP materials Trade allowances • Indirect Costs: – – – – Diversion of activity from existing products Possible negative impact of test failure Possible negative trade reactions Competition becomes aware of new product idea Six Steps in a Test Market Study 1. Define the Objective: – What do you hope to learn? – What are the characteristics of the people / products of interest? 2. Select a Basic Approach: – Simulated, controlled, scanner, or standard test? 3. Develop Detailed Test Procedures: – Generate a full marketing plan – Determine positioning approach Six Steps in a Test Market Study 4. Select the Test Market: – – – – – Market should not be over tested Should have little media spillover Demographics should be similar to your target population Market should be large enough to provide useful results Distribution and other patterns should be similar to the nation 5. Execute the Plan: – Determine length of time of test – Finalize the parties involved 6. Analyze the Results: – Use qualitative and quantitative techniques when possible Limitations of Experimental Research • High Cost: – Is the research affordable? – Will the research be beneficial and help solve problems? – Has a cost and benefit analysis been done? • Security Issues: – Particularly critical with field experiments – The competition might be “tipped-off” – Are the data and findings secure? • Implementation Problems: – People who unwittingly get caught in the experiment – Outside factors unnaturally affecting the experiment – Participants who intentionally try to skew the results Copyright Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of this work beyond that permitted by Access Copyright (the Canadian copyright licensing agency) is unlawful. Requests for further information should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons Canada, Ltd. 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