Geological Society of America
Joint Annual Meeting/October 7, 2008/Houston
INTELLECTUAL ATROPHY THEORY
APPLIED TO THE GLOBAL WARMING
PSEUDOCONTROVERSY: A CASE STUDY
OF SCIENTIFIC STAGNATION
presented by
George T. Stone
Milwaukee Area Technical College
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“The greatest tradition is
change.”
--Frank Lloyd Wright
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“The very essence of science
is change.”
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Science
“Science is best defined as a careful,
disciplined, logical search for knowledge
about any and all aspects of the universe,
obtained by examination of the best
available evidence and always subject to
correction and improvement upon
discovery of better evidence.”
-- James Randi
Founder of the James Randi Educational Foundation
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Responsible skeptic v. ostensible skeptic
As predators keep prey alert and adaptable, so
skeptics keep scientists honest. Skeptics play an
essential role in the process of science.
Responsible skeptics, that is.
A responsible skeptic plays by the rules of
science, ever striving for objectivity and rigor.
Alas, the ostensible skeptic interprets these rules
loosely and may deem a foul ball fair, straying
into the field of dreams and pseudoscience.
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Atrophy
(Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary)
Etymology
Late Latin atrophia
from Greek atrophos: ill fed
from a- + trephein: to nourish
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Intellectual atrophy
(W. T. Wu/Nanjing University letters, 1936)
Intellectual atrophy describes an
immutable and closed mindset
which denies itself the nourishment
of new knowledge in order to
preserve a revered or cherished
paradigm.
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Conceptions of an orderly world
“Ideas without precedent are
generally looked upon with
disfavor and men are shocked if
their conceptions of an orderly
world are challenged.”
-- J. Harlen Bretz
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Scientific stagnation
Scientific stagnation develops
when the nourishing oxygen of
discovery in an open intellectual
system is excluded, resulting in
conceptual stasis.
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Confirmation bias
(from Wikipedia/the free encyclopedia)
Confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a
tendency to search for or interpret
information in a way that confirms one's
preconceptions and avoids information and
interpretations which contradict prior beliefs.
Confirmation bias is mother’s milk to
ostensible skeptics and is symptomatic of
scientific stagnation.
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History of science
The history of science is replete with
examples of scientific stagnation
when new evidence and new ideas
threatened to perturb and oxygenate
the comfortable quietude of long-held
concepts.
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Perturbers of scientific stagnation
James Hansen
F. Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina
Harry Hess
Guy Callendar
J. Harlan Bretz
Alfred Wegener
Albert Einstein
Svante Arrhenius
Charles Darwin
Louis Agassiz
James Hutton
Galileo Galilei
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History of global-warming science
1827:
Joseph Fourier explains “greenhouse effect”
1862-3:
John Tyndall publishes experimental
data documenting infrared absorption
by H2O and CO2
1895:
Svante Arrhenius calculates that doubling
C02 in the atmosphere would raise Earth’s
surface temperature 5 to 6oC
1938:
Guy Callendar concluded that CO2 from the
combustion of fossil fuels is changing
Earth’s climate
1988:
James Hansen testifies before Congress;
presents GISS projections of global warming
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The greenhouse effect and global warming
Now, the discoverers and documenters
of the greenhouse effect and global
warming clearly perturbed the resourcefriendly paradigm of planetary immunity
to human activity.
And ostensible skeptics and true
believers charged onto the playing field.
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Example of non-science
When the state of a system is a function of
multiple independent variables, it is naïve at
best and dishonest at worst to attribute cause
and effect to only two variables while ignoring
the relevant impact of a third (or more).
For example: concluding that the thermal
properties of CO2 were inoperative simply
because the dimming impact of aerosols
temporarily masked the greenhouse effect.
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Another example of non-science
If a well-defined, longer-term trend (say, multi-decadal)
exhibits short-term fluctuations (say multi-annual), it
would be unjustified – indeed, disingenuous – to
conclude on the basis of a fluctuation that the longterm trend did not continue or was invalid.
These examples are not hypothetical; they represent
two of many ploys that have been used in the guise of
science by ostensible skeptics to create the perception
of controversy. Such fallacies do not constitute
science and contrive only pseudocontroversy.
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Science, credibility, and public policy
The effectiveness of science in informing public
policy derives from its credibility -- and also,
unfortunately, from its political convenience.
We can control credibility; it derives from integrity.
And integrity is the duty of science, as it is for all
scholarship. As scientists, it is our duty to demand
integrity and rigor in our research and in our
education of students and the public at large.
Pseudoscience and rigorless disinformation should
not be granted legitimacy-by-association in a forum
of scientific research or on the stage of scholarship.
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Understanding global warming
(James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
“Understanding the nature and
causes of climate change is
essential to crafting solutions
to our current crisis.”
-- Tipping Point: Perspective of a Climatologist
(2008–2009 State of the Wild)
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CO2 rises exceed worst-case scenarios
(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences/May 22, 2007)
 The world's recent carbon
dioxide emissions are
growing more rapidly than
even the worst-case climate
scenario used by the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
 C02 emissions from fossil
fuels increasing at 3 times
the rate of the 1990’s
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CDIAC & EIA data compared to IPCC
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CO2 emissions accelerate in 2007
(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008)
atmospheric CO2 increase (ppm/yr)
1970-1979
1980-1989
1990-1999
2000-2007
2007
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1.3
1.6
1.5
2.0
2.2
CO2 emissions accelerate in 2007
(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008)
 the growth rate of emissions continued to accelerate,
through 2007, bringing atmospheric CO2 to 383 ppm
 anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been growing four
times faster since 2000
 "This new update of the carbon budget shows the
acceleration of both CO2 emissions and atmospheric
accumulation are unprecedented and most astonishing
during a decade of intense international developments
to address climate change.”
-- Pep Canadell, Executive Director Global Carbon Project
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2007 land temperature warmest on record!
(National Climatic Data Center/January 15, 2008)
For 2007:
 the global land surface temperature ranked
warmest on record
 the Northern hemisphere land and land +
ocean surface temperature ranked second
warmest on record
 the combined global land + ocean surface
temperature ranked fifth warmest on record
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The greatest challenge of human history
We now face what may well be the most
daunting challenge in human history:
anthropogenic greenhouse warming.
The magnitude and immediacy of this
challenge is staggering and not yet
fully grasped by many.
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“We have a very brief window of opportunity”
(James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies)
“We have a very brief
window of opportunity to
deal with climate change . . .
no longer than a decade at
the most.“
If the world continues with
"business as usual,"
temperatures will rise by 2 to
3o Celsius (3.6 to 7.2o F) and
"we will be producing a
different planet"
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Einstein’s wisdom
(Sandra Postel/October 5, 2008)
“You can’t solve a
problem with the same
mindset that created the
problem.”
-- Albert Einstein
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A call to duty!
As geoscientists -- with expertise in
climate change and energy
resources -- it is our professional
duty to demonstrate leadership in
preparing policy makers and the
public to deal with the greatest
challenge of human history!
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We can do it!
Si se puede!
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(AP photo courtesy of Dan Crosbie/Canadian Ice Service)
Thanks for your attention!!
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