Pricing of MAXL treaties Conference R in Insurance – 29/06/2015 Indra LOLJEEH – Technical Advisor Analytics at QBE Re – li@qbere.com Agenda • Reminder about reinsurance treaties • MAXL treaties • Pricing of MAXL treaties • Structure of the pricing program • Conclusion 2 Agenda • Reminder about reinsurance treaties – Reinsurance basic treaties – Aggregate clauses in reinsurance • MAXL treaties • Pricing of MAXL treaties • Structure of the pricing program • Conclusion 3 Traditional reinsurance Quota share (QS) Stop loss (SL) Surplus (SP) Excess of loss (XL) 4 Quota-Share • Quota share (QS) Stop loss (SL) Surplus (SP) Excess of loss (XL) Cession rate: πΌπ = πΌ for all risks π 5 Surplus • Cession rate: πΌπ ≠ πΌ for all risks π • πΌπ = max 0,1 − π ππΌπ where π is called the surplus line Surplus 3 lines of 2 10 8 6 Reinsured 4 Retention 2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Risk number 6 Excess of loss • • • Notation: C xs D π original claim amount π π ππππ = min πΆ, max 0, π − π· π π ππ‘ = π − π π ππππ Excess of loss 5xs5 and 10xs10 45 40 Claim amount • 35 30 25 Retention 20 15 Layer 2 10 Layer 1 5 Retention - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Claim 7 Stop loss • • • • Notation: C xs D π = π1 + … + ππ π π ππππ = min πΆ, max 0, π − π· π π ππ‘ = π − π π ππππ Quota share (QS) Stop loss (SL) Surplus (SP) Excess of loss (XL) 8 Aggregate clauses in reinsurance • AAD: Aggregate Annual Deductible • AAL: Aggregate Annual Limit • Link with Stop-Loss treaties • ο¨ These elements are the basis of most currently existing reinsurance structures 9 Agenda • Reminder about reinsurance treaties • MAXL treaties – Concept of MAXL treaties – Illustration/Example • Pricing of MAXL treaties • Structure of the pricing program • Conclusion 10 Concept of MAXL treaties • Multiline: – Reinsurance treaty covering several lines of business at the same time – Common protection for several portfolios • Aggregate – Structure that contains aggregate clauses (MAAD/MAAL) – These clauses are applied on a global level • eXcess of Loss – Non-proportional structure – Protection against medium/high claims 11 MAXL Example 12 MAXL Example Eligible Claim Activity Interior Priority 13 Advantages of such structures • Improved protection against medium sized claims – Towards frequency – Towards changes in legislation • Protection of insurer’s global results • Can cover several lines of business at the same time • Cheaper than lower XL cover • Optimization of the reinsurance structure (Solvency II) 14 Agenda • Reminder about reinsurance treaties • MAXL treaties • Pricing of MAXL treaties – Collective risk model / Monte-Carlo methods – Problems inherent to MAXL treaties ο§ Correlations ο§ Lines of business (ST/LT) ο§ Time – What R brought to us • Structure of the pricing program • Conclusion 15 Theory behind the pricing of MAXL • Collective Risk model: Independency between frequency and severity – Determination of the loss distribution of the eligible layers – Determination of the frequency distributions • Aggregation of the loss distributions – Use of copulas – Dependency structure between the lines of business ? – Dependency above thresholds ? – Long tail vs. Short tail businesses ? • Use of Monte-Carlo simulations – Simulation for each line of business – Aggregation to obtain aggregate loss distribution 16 Problems inherent to such methods • Time-consuming process ο¨ Need for an efficient software • Many underlying structures possible ο¨ Need for program flexibility • Still some developments needed for the copula part ο¨ Need for a modular program • Difficult to take account of some distributions (CAT Softwares) 17 Problems inherent to such methods • Time-consuming process ο¨ Need for an efficient software • Many underlying structures possible ο¨ Need for program flexibility • Still some developments needed for the copula part ο¨ Need for a modular program • Difficult to take account of some distributions (CAT Softwares) R is our savior !!! 18 Agenda • Reminder about reinsurance treaties • MAXL treaties • Pricing of MAXL treaties • Structure of the pricing program • Conclusion 19 Structure of the pricing program 1 - Inputs Excel Template 1/2 - Margin distribution by LoB 1 - Inuring layers 1 - Dependency structure between risks 1 - MAXL Program 3 - Monte-Carlo Simulations 4 - Calculation of eligible losses R tool 5 - Aggregation per LoB 6 -Global aggregation Outputs Excel Template PDF Report 7 - Results by alternative Global report 20 Global distribution Average STD CoV VaR 99,5% 12.511.322 7.147.174 57,13% 39.272.602 RP 3 14.220.596 5 17.613.749 10 21.887.814 21 Agenda • Reminder about reinsurance treaties • MAXL treaties • Pricing of MAXL treaties • Structure of the pricing program • Conclusion 22 Advantages of R in our case • Ideal for simulation based tools • Simplification of the audit process • Program easy to modify and improve • Packages already existing • Possibility for further analysis on data – Graphs – Sensitivity analysis – Reporting 23 Questions? 24