Chapter Topics Aggregate Output The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #1 Aggregate Output Aggregate Output (national income and product accounts, or NIPA) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The value of the final goods and services produced in an economy during a given period Y = C + I + G + X - Im Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #2 Aggregate Output Defining GDP: Three Approaches 1) Final good 2) Value added 3) Income Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #3 Aggregate Output GDP: The final goods approach Firm 1: Steel Company Revenues from sales Expenses (wages) Profit What is GDP? $100 $80 $20 $310 or $210 Firm 2: Car Company Revenues from sales Expenses Wages Steel purchases Profit Blanchard: Macroeconomics $210 $170 $70 $100 Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book $40 Slide #4 Aggregate Output Two Firm Example GDP ($210) Value added steel ($100) value added cars ($110) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #5 Aggregate Output Defining GDP GDP from the income side GDP (income) indirect taxes labor income capital income Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #6 Aggregate Output Income (steel) Income (car) Labor = $80 Labor = $70 Capital = $20 Capital = $40 $100 $110 GDP (income) $100 $110 $210 Compared to: GDP (value added - -$210) value added steel ($100) value added car ($110) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #7 Aggregate Output Nominal & Real GDP GDP = Price x Quantity of final goods produced If price increases and quantity remains constant, the $ value of final output increases. But real output hasn’t changed. Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #8 Nominal and Real U.S. GDP, 1960-1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #9 Aggregate Output Observations Real GDP = value of final goods in constant prices The increase in real GDP is less than nominal GDP when prices are rising More variation in real GDP than nominal GDP Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #10 Aggregate Output Synonyms for GDP Accounting Real GDP GDP in terms of goods GDP in constant dollars GDP adjusted for inflation GDP in 1992 dollars Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #11 Aggregate Output Technical Notes: For the Course GDP -- refers to real GDP Yt -- real GDP in year t $GDP -- nominal GDP $Yt = nominal GDP in year t Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #12 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The Unemployment Rate number unemployed (U ) Unemployme nt Rate (u ) labor force (L) Labor Force (L ) employed (N ) unemployed (U ) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #13 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Counting the Unemployed Current population survey 60,000 households monthly Employed -- job holders Unemployed Blanchard: Macroeconomics -- job seekers Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #14 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Counting the Unemployed 1998 N 131.4 U 6.2 6.2 (U ) u 4.5% 131.4 (N ) 6.2(U ) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #15 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Macro Terms Unemployed and Discouraged Workers labor force (L) Participation Rate adult population (16 ) Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #16 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Unemployment and Economic Activity Okun’s Law High output growth -- reduces unemployment Low output growth -- increases unemployment Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #17 Change in the U.S. Unemployment Rate versus U.S. GDP Growth 1960 - 1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #18 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The Inflation Rate A sustained rise in the price level Two Measures of the Price Level GDP Deflator Consumer Blanchard: Macroeconomics Price Index (CPI) Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #19 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The GDP Deflator Average GDP price of final goods produced deflator in year t = Pt nominal GDPt $Yt Pt Real GDPt Yt Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #20 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The GDP Deflator Pt is an index number • P1993 = 102.6 (1992 = 100) Index numbers are used to measure rate of change over time Pt Pt - 1 Rate of inflation %Pt Pt - 1 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #21 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The GDP Deflator $Yt Pt Yt $Yt Pt Yt Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #22 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Average prices of goods consumed The CPI is not equal to the GDP deflator Some final goods are sold to business, government, and foreigners Some consumer goods are imported Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #23 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables Steps in Calculating the CPI 1) Consumer expenditure survey to determine a market basket of items 2) Bureau of labor statistics (BLS) field workers price the items monthly (85 cities, 22,000 stores) 3) A base period is chosen, currently 1982-84 4) End 2001 CPI = 177.4 (1982-84 = 100) A basket of goods that cost $100 in 1982 – 84 cost $177.40 at end of 2001. The price of the representative consumer good increased by 77.4% over this period. Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #24 Inflation Rate, Using the CPI and the GDP Deflator, 1960, 1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #25 Change in the U.S. Inflation Rate versus the U.S. Unemployment Rate, 1970-1998 Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #26 The Other Major Macroeconomic Variables The Phillips Curve Low unemployment --inflation rate increases High unemployment -- inflation rate decreases Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #27 The Central Question of Macroeconomics What determines the level of aggregate output? Demand? Supply? Government, education, and savings? • Short-run (a few years) demand • Medium-run (10+ years) supply • Long-run (50+ years) government, education, savings Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #28 A Road Map The Central Question of Macroeconomics What determines the level of aggregate output? Short-run (a few years) -- demand Medium-run (10+ years) -- supply Long-run (50+ years) -- government, education, savings Blanchard: Macroeconomics Chapter 2: A Tour of the Book Slide #29