2012-2013 NFL PREVIEW
by Bodio the VEGAS Butcher
Divisional Overview:
NFC (with Projected Record)
NFC North:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
Green Bay Packers 12-4
Chicago Bears 10-6
Detroit Lions 8-8
Minnesota Vikings 5-11
I expect Packers to once again be one of the best teams in the NFC. This was a #1 offense
last year and there’s no reason not to expect another stellar year from Rodgers and Co.
Plenty of weapons, cohesive O-line (albeit an average unit), and one of the best QB’s in the
game running the show. Defensively, you can expect an improvement. Packers have plenty
of quality playmakers and it’s not often you go from being the 2nd best D in ’09 and ’10
seasons to bottom-5 with a similar personnel. Pass-rush was a major issue as Matthews
was double teamed often and the team lacked another quality rusher to take the pressure
off. Of course this was addressed in the offseason via the draft and I expect this talented
unit to closer resemble the 2010 version. It doesn’t hurt having to play the 2nd weakest
schedule in the NFL.
Da Bears were one of the better teams in the NFC last year prior to Cutler and Forte going
down with injuries. Healthy entering this season, expect Chicago’s offense to be better than
in years past. Brandon Marshall gives them a legitimate #1 WR and his familiarity with
Cutler will go a long way. Michael Bush will improve Chicago’s success in short-yardage, an
area they struggled with in the past. And the hope is that the O-line will continue
improving, though it will remain an area of concern. Chicago still has a top-5 defense and
the best ST’s in the league, so even slight improvements on offense should put this team into
the upper echelon in the conference. Throw in the weakest schedule in the league and
Chicago should be battling the Packers for the division title.
Detroit will be a good team once again with dynamic playmakers on offense and a stout
front-4 on defense. Unfortunately for them, their schedule is slightly more difficult than
Chicago’s. By finishing 2nd last year, they’ll play both Philadelphia and Atlanta this season,
both teams that I consider stronger than Detroit. The Bears will face Dallas and Carolina. In
any case, last year the Lions were 0-6 against teams with a record above .500. Now you can
see why having to face two additional teams that I project to make the playoffs (PHI + ATL)
could be problematic for Detroit’s post-season chances. Still, this is a good squad and even
though they’re not ‘elite’ they’ll be a tough out each week.
Vikings are the weakest team in the division and clearly in a rebuilding mode. Adrian
Peterson is coming off an ACL injury so it’ll take him some time to get it going this year. I do
like that they improved their O-line, which should help Ponder’s development, but this team
still lacks a true #1 WR. Defensively you can’t get much worse as Minnesota was the worst
pass-D in the league last year. Injuries played a part of course so expect some improvement
but it will take some time for the young guys in the secondary to develop. Expect another
mediocre year for the Vikes, but this team is trending in the right direction.
NFC East:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
Philadelphia Eagles 10-6
New York Giants 8-8
Dallas Cowboys 7-9
Washington Redskins 4-12
With a very talented team and the easiest schedule in the division (17th overall) maybe 2012
will be the year of the ‘Dream Team’. This is a quality squad with plenty of playmakers on
offense, a defense that finally figured ‘IT’ out in the second half of last year, and specialteams that were uncharacteristically below average (expect big improvement). As long as
Vick can stay healthy for the majority of the season there’s no reason why this team
shouldn’t win this division.
Giants were the first team in history with a negative point-differential during the regular
season to win a Super Bowl. They also barely made the playoffs as they clinched the WildCard on the last week of the season. So, what to expect of this team in 2012? Are they the
average team that we saw during the regular season or the juggernaut that won the last 6
games of the year in a very dominant fashion? Was their Super Bowl win justified or was it
just ‘luck’ due to a short-4 game sample size in the playoffs? Honestly, I think the G-men are
somewhere in between. Remember, they dealt with a lot of injuries throughout the regular
season and probably over-achieved slightly in the playoffs. Still, this is a very good team.
Their D-line is awesome, their secondary is healthier, and Eli changed his name to Elite
Manning last year. The problem though is a brutal schedule. Instead of playing Detroit and
Arizona (Philly’s two in-conference opponents who finished in the same place within their
respective divisions last year), New York will face off against San Francisco and Green Bay,
in addition to playing NFC South and AFC North of course, two of the toughest divisions in
the NFL. And it’s a given that these NFC East opponents beat up on one another each year. I
like the talent the Giants have but when you have such a brutal schedule along with
standard regression closer to their 2011 season-long performance, a repeat Super Bowl
appearance is highly unlikely.
Dallas was an ‘average’ team last year. They had playmakers on offense (Romo, Bryant,
Witten, etc.) but a poor offensive line. They had a solid front-7 on defense, but a very poor
secondary, one of the worst in the league. So what will be different this year? Dallas signed
Brandon Carr from the Chiefs and moved down in the draft to select Morris Claiborne (LSU
playmaker). Carr is definitely an upgrade but we need to remember that Claiborne is a
rookie and chances are he won’t have much of an impact (typically it takes a few years for
CB’s to play at a high level after getting drafted early). Still, the secondary should overall be
better. As for the O-line, Dallas didn’t do much to upgrade that area. Reports out of
preseason indicate that the O-line has played poorly and is a work in progress. Romo
staying upright for the whole season could be an issue. At the same time, his supporting
staff seems to be made out of glass as Bryant, Witten, and Austin have already dealt with
injuries, and DeMarco Murray has always been susceptible to injuries even back in his
college days. Throw in a brutal schedule (#2 hardest) and I don’t like Dallas’ chances of
even repeating their 8-8 mark from 2011. Take a look at their schedule, as they only have 2
‘gimmes’: Tampa and Cleveland at home. Even their two games against Washington will be
in weeks 12 and 17, with RGIII having three full months to get acclimated to the pro-game.
Washington went ‘all in’ by drafting Robert Griffin III this year and even though I think he’ll
be a great player, it’s hard to expect a “Cam Newton” type of a rookie season. I think we all
got ‘spoiled’ last year, but expecting similar performances by Luck, RGIII, and Russell Wilson
is just unrealistic. Who knows, it might happen, as all three are extremely talented, but it’s
still highly unlikely. Even Newton was only 6-10 last year, with 4 of those wins coming in
the last 6 weeks of the season; so don’t expect ‘immediate’ results. In any case, as good as
RGIII CAN be, his team overall is nothing special. His O-line is average, his primary
receivers Garcon and Morgan aren’t very good, and his running backs are mediocre. On the
defensive side, Washington’s strength is in the front-7, but their secondary is atrocious.
When you have Brandon Meriweather as your projected starter at safety, you know you
have issues. This Redskins team could be similar to Carolina last year with an exciting
offense due to a rookie QB but a mediocre D. I think 6-10 is the ceiling for this team, but I’d
be surprised if this team wins that many games.
NFC South:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
Atlanta Falcons 11-5
New Orleans Saints 10-6
Carolina Panthers 8-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-10
I’m pretty high on the Falcons this year. This team began its transformation to a pass-first
offense last season, and I expect them to improve further upon their 11th overall (8th
passing) offensive ranking. Atlanta realized that to win a championship you must have a
strong vertical passing game in today’s NFL and I like what this team has done over the
years to improve in that area. Julio Jones and Roddy White are as good of a 1-2 punch as
you can get at WR and Matt Ryan has shown solid improvement in each of his NFL seasons.
What I like most about Atlanta is the fact that they’ve improved their secondary. Trading
for Asante Samuel, gives the Falcons three starting-quality corners, with Robinson and
Grimes being the other two. In a league dominated by the Packers, Saints, and Patriots, you
can never have too many quality corners at your disposal. This 8th ranked defense should
be just as good, if not better, and with an 18th ranked schedule I expect the Falcons to
overtake the division in 2012.
It wasn’t an easy off-season for the Saints. The ‘bounty scandal’ was a public nightmare.
Their head-coach will be suspended for the full year. And their franchise QB held out for a
while in a contract dispute. ‘Distractions’ aside, this is still one of the best teams in the
league. Drew Brees has been paid and is ready to ‘rock’. Most of his weapons are back, he
has a terrific O-line, and New Orleans will continue to have one of the best home-field
advantages in the entire league. The issue for New Orleans will be their defense (pretty
mediocre last year) and the 7th most difficult schedule. With a number of players suspended
to start out the year (Will Smith being the key guy), it might take some time to develop ingame cohesiveness. Bottom line is that New Orleans will still be one of the best teams in the
NFC, but there are a number of factors (SOS, improved teams in the division, Sean Payton’s
absence, suspensions, defense) that will keep them from being a true contender.
Can we expect a similar year from Newton as last season? No, a drop off is to be expected.
But was 2011 a fluke? Absolutely not. I’m a believer, and I think Newton is the real deal.
Expect another strong season from him. So even if an offensive decline is inevitable, why
am I predicting a 2 game improvement for this team? Well, their defense can’t get much
worse. Last year this was the worst defense in the league as injuries to key defensive
players and lack of depth were the primary reasons for that ranking. Remember, Panther’s
D was average in 2010, so return to at least a league-average ranking in 2012 is very
reasonable. Combine an improved D with an efficient offense, plus a 10th hardest schedule
and a .500 season is easily within reach.
The Bucs were absolutely terrible last year, as the team seemed to quit in the later parts of
the season. Naturally the head coach was fired, a new regime was put in place, and better
players were infused into the roster. I like the additions of Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks,
Dallas Clark, and Doug Martin on offense. Josh Freeman had a very solid 2010 season so
you can expect him to be closer to that level, than to his atrocious 2011 performance.
Overall I like the offense to improve. Defensively, there’s still a ton of question marks here.
This was the 31st ranked unit for a reason and I’m not sure how much they’ll improve this
year. A healthy McCoy on the DLine will help but there isn’t a lot of ‘quality’ in the
secondary besides Talib, who seems to be wearing out his welcome. Expect Bucs to be
involved in a number of higher scoring games but wins will be hard to come by this season.
NFC West:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
San Francisco 49ers 9-7
Seattle Seahawks 9-7
Arizona Cardinals 5-11
St Louis Rams 5-11
The Niners should once again take this division, easily one of the worst ones in the NFL. Of
course I don’t think they’ll be as dominant as last year. Out of division games against @ GB,
DET, @ NYJ, BUF, NYG, CHI, @ NO, @ NE won’t be easy. Furthermore, I don’t expect this
offense to be as ‘efficient’ as they were in 2011. Alex Smith is still a pretty mediocre QB,
who was aided by a very ‘lucky’ INT-rate last year. The run game has gotten a bit older with
Gore and Jacobs being past their primes. Rookie LeMichael James is more of a 3rd down
back, and if this San Fran run-game can’t at least keep the defenses honest, then Smith is
going to experience a larger regression than even I expect. Finally, I want to point out that
San Fran’s O-line is fairly mediocre, and this unit better hope not to catch an ‘injury’ bug
after being relatively healthy all of last year. It’s clear that for San Fran to continue to be
successful they’ll rely on their top D and 2nd ranked ST’s. Niners remind me a bit of Chicago
Bears: great defense and special-teams, with mediocre offense. The difference though is
that Cutler is a much better QB than Smith and Bears’ running game is stronger. In any case,
San Fran should still win this division, as their schedule overall isn’t too terrible, and if they
could at least go .500 against the 8 teams I listed above, a return trip to the playoffs should
be in the cards.
Of course the Seahawks will have something to say about San Fran winning the West. I
really like this team. I think Russell Wilson has a chance to be a stud in year 1. Out of all the
rookie QB’s, I think he has the greatest chance to come close to Cam Newton’s production
from 2011. The only reason he slipped to the 3rd round in the draft was his height, but his
accuracy, arm strength, decision-making, and poise are on the same level (if not better) as
Luck and RGIII. Russell is around the same height as Drew Brees, so clearly he’s not the
only ‘short stack’ to line up behind center this year. In any case, Wilson will have an
improving and young O-line in front of him, a number of solid receivers to throw to
(Edwards, Rice, Miller, Tate, Baldwin), a strong running game, and most importantly a top10 defense. That’s something that even Cam Newton didn’t have last year. If Wilson can
have a season close to Newton’s AND with a real defense behind him, a winning record and
a chance to compete for the playoffs is not out of the question. I like Seattle to make a lot of
‘noise’ this season.
Two things you need to know about the Cardinals this year: John Skelton is a starter and
their O-line will be just as bad as last year. Those two things will prevent this team from
being very competitive on a consistent basis. They had a bottom-10 defense last year even
though you can expect Peterson to improve and their D-line will continue to be very good.
Still, I just don’t see this team doing much this season. If they don’t beat Seattle in week 1,
an 0-3 start is very likely, with a brutal second half schedule: @ GB, BYE, @ ATL, STL, @
NYJ, @ SEA, DET, CHI, @ SF. Last year Arizona went 7-2 to close out the season after a 1-6
start. The score differential in eight of those last 9 games was within 6 points, with Arizona
going 7-1 in the process. Chances are that the Cardinals won’t have the same record in close
games this season and a decline of 3 wins from a mediocre 8-8 campaign is very realistic.
Over the past two years, Bradford has been one of the worst QB’s in the NFL statistically. I
know his O-line stunk and he had weak receiving core to throw to, but still that does not
excuse his mediocre performance. Good QB’s would be average with poor supporting casts.
Bradford was far from it. His O-line will continue to be a work in progress as will his
receiving core, but it’s on Bradford to make that jump and prove that he could be a quality
QB at this level. Can he do it? I don’t think so, but then again you never know. Third year
could be the charm, but if Brandford once again has a completion % below 55% with a
mediocre PY/A of around 6.0, it will be time for the Rams to move on from this experiment.
One thing that I like about the Rams this year is their defense. Fisher did a good job of
acquiring young talent and bringing in veterans like Cortland Finnegan to shore up the D.
Their front 4 has a ton of potential, with a stud LB in Lauinaitis playing behind them.
Overall St Louis still has a long way to go, but Fisher has them going in the right direction.
They should improve on last year’s record but anything greater than 5 wins would be a
surprise.
AFC (with Projected Record)
AFC East:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 9-7
Buffalo Bills 9-7
Miami Dolphins 4-12
In the NFC there are 4 or 5 teams that are ranked fairly close to one another and will battle
to get to the Super Bowl. In the AFC, there is one truly dominant team this year and it’s the
New England Patriots. The offense should be ‘ridiculous’ once again, especially with an
addition of Brandon Lloyd to stretch the field vertically. The ST’s will be very solid. And
you can expect improvements on defense. Last year New England’s defense was ravaged
with injuries throughout the season, which was part of the reason why this team was 2nd to
last in overall defensive rankings. The second reason was the lack of quality talent, which
the Pats addressed with two picks of defensive players in the 1st round. Throw in the fact
that they have the 5th easiest schedule this year and I’d be surprised if NE is not the top seed
in the AFC.
Jets are going back to what worked for them in the past: running the ball and, of course
playing top-5 defense. They have an excellent offensive line, a big runner in Shonn Greene,
and of course Tebow to run the Wildcat and score TD’s in short-yardage scenarios. The
defense was once again awesome in 2011 (#2 overall) with excellent Special Teams (#4).
Jet’s passing game is a question mark and if Sanchez could somehow keep teams ‘honest’,
Jets could be very dangerous this season. I think for the first time in a while this team is
flying under the radar a bit, but I like their chances of being a very tough out each week.
No team in the league will make greater improvements defensively than the Bills.
Remember how the Texas went from 31st to a top-6 defensive squad last year? I think Bills
have a chance to do the same thing this year. They have stud DT’s, solid young secondary,
and by signing the best DE on the market in Mario Williams, Buffalo should have an
excellent pass-rush this season. Throw in the fact that Buffalo plays the 4th easiest schedule
(check out this 6 game stretch towards the end of the season: MIA, @ IND, JAC, STL, SEA, @
MIA) and it’s easy to expect this unit to be top-10 this year. Offensively, Buffalo started out
‘hot’ but cooled off after week 8 last saeason, supposedly due to Fitzpatrick playing with
undisclosed injuries. If he’s healthy, Buffalo should be able to improve on their 16th
offensive ranking. Improved offense and a possibility of a very stout defense = first
potential playoff berth in 12 years.
Miami will be the worst team in the division, and most likely the whole AFC. Drafting
Tannehill that early was a ‘reach’ and now they’re going to start the rookie right away.
Their best receiving options are Bess and Hartline, two mediocre players. Plus you can
expect Reggie Bush to regress back to the mean, as he’s coming off a ‘career’ year (career
year by his standards but still nothing special) and him staying healthy for a full season
again is highly unlikely. The strength of this team is the defense, but Miami traded away
their top CB in Vontae Davis, and failed to improve the unit much in the off-season. This
could be a very miserable year for Miami.
AFC North:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
Baltimore Ravens 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cincinnati Bengals 8-8
Cleveland Browns 3-13
The loss of Suggs is pretty big and with both Lewis and Reed getting up there in age, expect
the overall defense to decline a bit for the Ravens. At the very least they won’t repeat as the
#1 D again this year. It doesn’t help that they have a very tough schedule. So why do I have
them winning the division still? I think their offense will improve. I might be one of the few
people that actually think Flacco is a decent NFL quarterback. With Torrey Smith taking
another step-up in his development and with superstar in Rice to take the pressure off, I
expect a big year from Flacco as the offense should improve. At the very least, expect
Ravens O to carry this team in a few more games this year, as the defense takes a bit of step
back.
I loved Pittsburgh last year and had the OVER 10.5 wins as one of my futures plays in 2011
but I’m not so high on ‘em this season. There are just way too many factors that are NOT in
their favor. I’ll just list them all:
i) New offensive coordinator with a new system in place. The fact that Pittsburg’s best
offensive player, Mike Wallace, held out most of the training camp does not bode well for
them. Typically players are slow to pick things up and/or are injury risks after missing the
preseason.
ii) The O-line was going to have two solid rookie starters this year, but unfortunately for
Pittsburgh one of them was placed on IR. The other one…well, he’s a rookie. That ties in to
the fact that Roethlisberger gets pounded every single year as he just loves to hold on to the
ball. He’s already reported to have had various small injuries (rotator cuff, ankle sprain) in
TC and if he continues to get hit during the season, chances are that he’ll miss some time.
Remember, he’s getting older with each passing year.
iii) Running game is a question mark. Mendenhall is coming off an ACL injury so who
knows when he’ll be back to 100% (probably next year). Redman and Dwyer are
replacement-level players.
iv) Transition to younger players on defense. This is actually a good thing, but you can
expect a bit of a drop-off in the short-term as the younger guys get used to starting.
I think if Pittsburgh goes 9-7, they’ll have a successful year and will have a chance to either
win the division or make it in as a wild-card. (Week 1 game @ Denver is very important!)
I expect a slight drop-off for Cincy. They were a bit lucky to get 9 wins last year as their
schedule was very soft. Keep in mind that Cincy won 0 games last season against ‘playoff’
caliber teams and though they have a few cup-cakes on the schedule once again (CLE, JAX,
MIA) it won’t be as easy as last year. Dalton is still a question mark for me. He doesn’t have
a strong arm, and his receiving options are pretty limited. Once AJ Green gets double/triple
teamed who is going to step up? BenJarvus Green Ellis is a mediocre running back.
Basically, he’s another Cedric Benson who doesn’t fumble the ball. Defensively, this unit
was 17th last year (below average) but with a tougher schedule this season I don’t see them
improving much there if at all. Yes, 8-8 seems about right for this team.
Cleveland is going to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. They are starting a
29-year old rookie at QB. Their receiving core is terrible. And they have the 5th toughest
schedule. When the rest of the league is trying to figure out ways to implement strong
passing attacks, Cleveland is moving back in time by trying to instill an offense around a
‘workhorse’ RB. It’s going to be a long rebuilding process for this team…
AFC West:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
Kansas City Chiefs 9-7
Denver Broncos 8-8
San Diego Chargers 7-9
Oakland Raiders 6-10
Kansas City will have their best defensive player back this year (Berry), their best offensive
weapon (Charles), their starting QB (Cassell), and their dynamic TE (Moeaki). That’s a lot of
talent coming back to a team that went 3-2 to end their season while playing inspired D for
Romeo Crennel. Chiefs improved their O-line, brought in Peyton Hillis, and will have the
easiest schedule in the division. As long as Cassell could revert back to his 2010 form,
Chiefs should be in a hunt for the division title. Of course that’s a pretty big ‘if’. Even if he’s
subpar again, KC will rely on strong D and dynamic running game to win games. Anything
Cassell provides will be a bonus and will make this team that much better.
He’s back!! Yes, Manning is back but I wouldn’t get too excited. First of all, taking a year off
from football is never easy. I know Manning is in a different category from an average NFL
player, but after that long of an absence, expecting him to be at his MVP form right away is
unrealistic. Plus remember that he’s had serious neck surgeries, is reporting to lack some
arm-strength, is getting acclimated to new scheme/receivers, and will now play most of his
games outdoors instead of in a climate-controlled environment of a dome. That’s a lot of
changes. Manning will be good but for Denver to make the playoffs he must be great, and I
just don’t know if that will happen this year. Bronco’s D was average in 2011 (#18 overall).
What’s interesting is that they were actually 13th against the run but chose not to retain
either of their starting DT’s. Their pass D was and will be a liability as Champ Bailey is way
past his prime, and there just isn’t much quality in the secondary. Of course having stud
pass-rushers in Dummervil and Miller will make any D look better than it really is, and as
long as those guys are healthy, Denver should be at least at a league-average ranking. Still,
league-average defensively and with a ton of changes on offense, combined with the most
brutal schedule in the NFL and I have a hard time seeing Denver in the playoffs this season.
Chargers are another team with a ton of question marks. Vincent Jackson is gone, Gates is
another year older, Matthews is already injured, O-line is mediocre (LT Gaither is already
out for week 1), secondary is very soft, and Rivers’ QB rating was below 100 for the first
time in the last 4 years. Throw in the fact that Norv Turner is a pretty poor game-manager
and I just don’t see this Chargers team having a great year. Of course, I won’t count out
Rivers until I see a decline in performance two years in a row (I’ll give him a pass), so who
knows; maybe this San Diego team has a 10-6 season in them and a playoff berth. I doubt it
though.
Oakland’s skill position players all have injury concerns as neither Palmer, McFadden,
Moore, or Heyward Bay seem to stay healthy for extended periods of time. If the ‘injury
bug’ avoids Oakland this year, they could be competitive in this weak division. There isn’t
much depth on this team so staying healthy is crucial. Defensively they should improve
from their 27th ranking last year, but not enough to become a playoff team. I’d be very
surprised if the Raiders are over .500 this year.
AFC South:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
Houston Texans 9-7
Tennessee Titans 8-8
Indianapolis Colts 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12
Houston is still the best team in the division but the Titans aren’t too far off. Still, I think the
Texans will once again repeat as champs. There are a number of ‘risks’ though. Andre
Johnson is getting up there in age and can’t ever seem to stay healthy. Owen Daniels is over
30 also, and there’s just not a lot of receiving depth on this team. Schaub is coming off a
season-ending injury, and health is a concern with him as well. You can expect their D to
take a step back a bit, as you just don’t go from 31st overall in 2010 to #6 in 2011 and
remain there the following year. Texans will be good defensively but a normal regression is
to be expected. I don’t think this team has what it takes to compete for the Super Bowl
though. Strong running game and good D will get you into the playoffs, but I’m just not sure
that’s enough to win a title in today’s NFL.
I like the Titans this year. Locker has a ton of ‘big play’ potential and the Titans have
surrounded him with a number of quality weapons (Britt, Cook, Washington, Wright,
Johnson). Of course it would help if he can improve on his mediocre completion percentage,
but I guess as long as he makes big plays that lead to scores, who cares that his accuracy is
Tebow-esque. Defensively the Titans should once again be at least average (were 15th last
year). They have a pair of excellent safeties and a potentially improved pass-rush with the
signing of Wimbley. If the offense takes a big step forward, league-average defense could be
enough to get this team to the playoffs.
Peyton Manning went 3-13 as a starter in his first year in the NFL, so giving Luck 5 wins I
his first season is huge. I do think the kid has what it takes to be a great starter in the NFL,
and I expect him to have success this year. It’ll help that he’s facing MIN, JAX, CLE, and MIA
at home this season. Indy’s defense will still be very mediocre so hard to envision them
winning many games against ‘playoff’ caliber opponents. Expect the management to
address defense in the off-season.
I think the Jags will be in the ‘basement’ this year. I just don’t think Gaebert is the answer.
Sure it was his first year and he had no receivers to throw to, but the kid just looked clueless
out there. He did not look like an NFL starter to me. Maybe a 3rd stringer at best. Then
again, with Blackmon and Robinson added to the team, maybe he’ll improve. I doubt it
though. Maurice Jones Drew is an injury risk, due to a high number of carries over the years
as well as his holdout. They’ll ease him into game-action early in the season. Defensively,
Jacksonville ranked 5th last season. They went from being one of the worst in 2010 to top-5
last year (similar to Houston). What’s even more impressive was that they had a ton of
injuries in their secondary but still managed to hold their own with 4th and 5th stringers.
Expect their D to regress a bit but this will still be the strength of the team in 2012.
2012-2013 Projected Playoffs and Super Bown Winner:
NFC:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
#5:
#6:
Packers
Falcons
Eagles
49ers
Bears
Saints
Wild Card Round:
Eagles over Saints
Bears over 49ers
Divisional Round:
Bears over Packers
Falcons over Eagles
NFC Championship:
Falcons over Bears
AFC:
#1:
#2:
#3:
#4:
#5:
#6:
Patriots
Ravens
Texans
Chiefs
Jets
Bills
Wild Card Round:
Bills over Texans
Chiefs over Jets
Divisional Round:
Patriots over Bills
Ravens over Chiefs
AFC Championship:
Patriots over Ravens
Super Bowl:
Patriots over Falcons
Futures plays for 2012-2013 season:
Here are my futures plays:
#1: Atlanta Falcons to make the playoffs -140 (1 Unit)
#2: Atlanta Falcons to win NFC South conference +105 (1 Unit)
I love the Falcons this year. New Orleans should have a bit of a ‘down’ year by their
standards and the Saints have a much tougher schedule. Panthers are a year away.
#3: Broncos will NOT make the playoffs -120 (1/2 Unit)
The O/U is 8.5 on the Broncos, as the number unfortunately dropped from 9. I think
Denver might be able to win 9 games and still miss the playoffs so I’ll avoid playing
the total. Like I’ve mentioned in my Broncos overview: brutal schedule,
questionable secondary, and a big unknown with Peyton Manning.
#4:
#5:
#6:
#7:
Dallas Cowboys UNDER 8.5 +140 (1/2 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals UNDER 6.5 -105 (1/2 Unit)
Washington Redskins UNDER 6.5 +100 (1/2 Unit)
Miami Dolphins UNDER 6.5 -130 (1/2 Unit)
Cowboys have a brutal schedule in a tough division, with a mediocre O-line, and still
a ton of questions in their secondary. All of Romo’s weapons are huge injury risks,
including him. Just don’t see this team winning 9 games this year.
Arizona has a mediocre QB and terrible O-line. They have a brutal stretch this year
and won’t go 7-1 in close games this season.
Cam Newton had a ‘sick’ year last year, put up a ton of points, and played with a
terrible defense. His team went 6-10 that year. RG III has a ton of potential, but
chances of him repeating a Newton-like season are slim. That type of a performance
from a rookie is once in a lifetime type of a deal. Besides, Washington does not have
a strong running game like Newton had last year. So why exactly is their season
total listed at 6.5?
Tannehill is not ready to be an NFL QB. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a Gaebertlike season as his WR’s might be even worse than Jags’ in 2011. Throw in the fact
that neither Reggie Bush nor D. Thomas are even close to MJD’s level at RB, and I
just don’t see how this offense will move the chains. Also, remember that Jags had
the #5 pass D last season. Well, Dolphins traded away their top corner in Davis and
their secondary is a big question mark. I think Miami will be lucky to get 4 wins.
#8: New England Patriots to make it to the Super Bowl +250 (1 Unit)
Simply the BEST team in the NFL this year. Unlike the NFC, the Pats are truly the
‘cream of the crop’ in their conference.