Moving Past the “Wall” of the
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
Exploring the limits of corn-based ethanol as a renewable fuel
Martha Hay
August 2011
The Energy Crisis
• In 2003, 83% of energy came from fossil fuels
▫ Fossil fuels = nonrenewable  limited supply
• US makes up ~5% of global population, yet consumes
25% of oil
• US imports ~60% of its oil
• Developing countries  growing worldwide energy
consumption
• Increasing competition = threat to US fuel supply
Additional concerns
• Environmental concerns
▫ Combustion byproducts:
 CO2 – greenhouse gas
 CO – pollutant
 NOx –pollutant
• Drilling oil spills
▫ BP Gulf Coast
▫ Exxon Valdez
Push towards alternative fuels
• ~74% of petroleum went to
transportation sector in 2009
• Alternative transportation
fuel could significantly
reduce fossil fuel
consumption
Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
• Promote development of alternative energy
▫ Tax incentives
▫ Mandates by volume (gallons)
• Goal=36 billion gallons renewable fuel in 2022
• Blenders contribute Renewable Volume
Obligation (RVO)
4 Categories
• Total renewable fuels
• Advanced biofuels
• Cellulosic and
agricultural waste-based
biofuel
• Biomass-based diesel
(BBD)
http://www.greentechnolog.com/indust
ry/renewal_fuels_inc/
http://thepurporters.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/a-view-of-the-future-irresponsiblepractices-are-washing-the-ground-from-beneath-our-feet/
2022 Goal attainable?
• 36 billion gallons renewable fuels
• No more than 15 billion from corn-based ethanol
• Biodiesel capped at 1 billion for 2012
▫ 2022 goal not set
• ≥ 16 billion from cellulosic
• Cellulosic falls short
▫ Bumped down from 250 to 6.6 million gallons for 2011
Where will the rest of this renewable fuel
come from?
Corn-based ethanol
• In 2010, ethanol production contributed $53.6
billion to the GDP
• In 2010, ethanol production employed 70,000
Americans
• In 2004, CO2 emissions reduced by > 7 million
tons, equivalent to removing >1 million cars
from the road for 1 year
Ethanol Consumption
• 14.31 billion gallons produced in 2010
• Cars approved for 10% ethanol (E10) in gasoline
▫ Exception Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs)
 Can use up to 85% ethanol
• 74% gasoline produced in the U.S. contains
ethanol
• Two types:
▫ Corn-based –contributes the majority
▫ Cellulosic – not economical to manufacture
Ethanol is green
• Environmental “savings” actually just a trade-off
• Not cost-competitive even after 30 yrs of
development &subsidies
▫ Ethanol not actually that young
• Limited biomass
• Farm equipment uses fossil fuels
• Food versus Fuel
 2009 national ethanol production
used ~32% of U.S. corn crop
• Corrosive  infrastructure
problems
Pushing past the ethanol “wall”
• Corn will be main contributor for RFS
• Wall = when the U.S. fuel supply can’t absorb
anymore ethanol
▫ Assuming the following don’t change drastically
 E10 limit
 # of FFVs
 Availability of E85
How to push past the “wall”
• A) Increase the concentration of ethanol in
gasoline for regular cars (E10  E15)
• B) Increase number of FFVs on the road and
availability of E85 at fueling stations
Option A – Approve higher blends
• EPA tried to pass an E15 waiver.
• Opposition:
▫ Insufficient, incomplete DOE testing
▫ Several automobiles failed testing for emissions
▫ E10 already causing problems for non-road
engines (chainsaws, lawnmowers, boats)
▫ Some states want E0 to be available
Option B –more FFVs and E85
• There are only 8 million FFVs on the road, and
approx. 1% of fueling stations offer E85.
• EPA estimates that FFV owners only fill up with
E85 about 5% of the time
• Retailers have to pay for the modifications for
E85 retail stations (expensive)
Inevitable problems
• Significant hurdles regardless
▫ Ethanol transported via rail (66%), trucks (29%),
and barge (5%)
 Not compatible with petroleum pipelines
 New pipelines expensive
▫ Retail stations
 USTs, nozzles, and piping need to be upgraded
 Retailers would have to upgrade their systems on
their own  expensive
When in doubt: throw more money at it!
• Blender’s credit for following a federal mandate
• Corn ethanol subsidies totaled $7.0 billion in
2006
• Subsidies unevenly
distributed
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11513.pdf
Recommendations
• Cut subsidies for ethanol and oil industries
• Should not approve E15 just to pass the “wall”
need to complete sufficient testing
• Provide financial assistance for retailers willing
to provide E85
• Invest in drop-in fuels
▫ Technology development funding
• E0 available for non-road engines
• Regional fuels
Potentially Useful Conversion Processes
New Zealand
Broaden the RFS
• Add category for electric/hybrid cars
• Two pools for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles
▫ Biodiesel capped at 1 billion gallons
Best Practices
• Reduce energy consumption
▫ Passivhaus – German building standard
▫ Increase gas prices (consider Europe)
▫ Promote electric and hybrid cars
• Promote other renewable energy: solar, wind,
nuclear  can all contribute to electric
• Education  informed decision makers
• International collaboration worth consideration
Questions?