Population Control
What is happening and what are the
consequences?
1
As can be see from the Demographic
Transition Model change happens
naturally as countries develop
• But in the 1970s, Population Explosion was the
BIG THING.
• It was firmly believed that improved health
care and better agricultural techniques would
mean more babies would grow into adults.
• There would be more and more people on the
Earth
• They would go on having bigger and bigger
families in those countries where they had large
families and
• They would take up all the space and resources.
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• They had not put together the
Demographic transition model that would
have shown that as a country develops
more, that families do get smaller, and
that part of the problem would resolve
itself.
• However there are still countries who are
growing at more than 2.1% a year , which
means they will double their size in 35
years or less!
3
Thomas Malthus 1795
• At the time, 30 years ago, the model for
population and resources that was most
used was Thomas Malthus .
• In 1795, using the American figures for
population and wheat production, he
showed that population curved upwards
while food production went in a straight
line, which meant that eventually we would
run out of food!
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• The consequence of these two principles is that
eventually, population will exceed the capacity
of agriculture to support the new population
numbers.
• Population would rise until a limit to growth was
reached.
• Further growth would be limited when:
preventive checks - postponement of marriage
(lowering of fertility rate), etc. and positive
checks - famine, war, disease, would increase
the death rate.
• So 30 years ago, the concentration was on
lowering the birth-rate, as increasing resources
were not seen as a long term possibility.
5
Esther Boserup
• In the 1975 Esther Boserup came
along with an alternative.
• She believed that people are
naturally inventive and will always
develop their way out of trouble.
• That the more people there were,
the more work could be achieved
and the more inventive they would
be
• She called upon several
technological advancements to
back her theory.
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Ester’s argument
• The Agricultural Revolution, which included breeding
cattle and sheep, which produced more milk, meat and
wool.
• They also developed new technologies to evenly sow
seeds, plough more efficiently and use their land more
effectively.
• The Green Revolution: selective breeding in LICs in the
1960s, and the introduction of fertilizers and greater
use of irrigation led to higher yields, faster growing
plants and more crops grown on the same land. India has
not had a famine since its introduction.
• Genetically Modified crops could also prove to be one of
these advancements, although they are in only the early
stages of development at the moment.
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But the argument has not ended
• There are many that still think that there
is a maximum population the world can
feed, and look towards making sure this
number is not breached.
• Many still see population control as the
only way to ensure we can continue to
feed the world.
• Some try persuasion and some take a
more direct route!
8
China 1979
• Their population was fast approaching 1
billion people.
• By 2025 it could reach 1.8 billion
• There would not be enough food to go
round and many would starve
• So they introduced a number of strict
rules.
9
China 1979
• China’s Communist leaders wanted to stop growth
altogether, so that the population was reduced to a
sustainable size. In the 70’s there was Overpopulation.
• The ‘One Child’ Policy was introduced on 1st January
1979.
• The policy had a series of ‘carrot’ and ‘stick’ sections:
• Age limits and certificates reducing marriages
• Free birth control / family planning advice
• Cash bonuses, improved housing and free education /
medical care if couples limited themselves to 1 child
• Anyone having more than 1 child would lose all these
benefits and also face financial penalties
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China 1979
• Advantages: 300 million children were not
born in 1980s and 1990s
• The population would peak at 1.5 billion in
2050 before it started to fall
– [remember they thought it would be 1.8
billion in 2025 if they had done nothing]
• The quality of life is better than it would
have been
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China 1979
• Disadvantages:
• Elderly parents have no-one to look after
them
• Many girl babies were aborted or left
outside to die as every family wanted a
boy
• Single children lacking siblings are often
spoilt
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One child prosperous life
13
Up
agricultural
production,
down
population
increase
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It's better to
marry and have
children at a
mature age
15
• National ad campaigns promoting "one
child" link the policy to prosperity and
good Communist citizenship.
• By showing happy single female children,
many of the ads also seem to respond
subtly to the traditional preference for
boys.
• The figures do speak for themselves – up
120 live baby boys are born for every 100
girls – where have the girls gone – sexselective abortion perhaps?
16
The rules and updated regulations
• The One child policy became law in 1979
• Women must be 25 before they can marry
• Permission must be given before people can marry and
have children
• Free health care, childcare, education and better
pensions provided for those who comply with new laws
• Fines for parents who have two or more children
• Forced abortions and sterilization have been reported
• Recent Changes - The law has now been relaxed
and:• Families can apply to have a second child especially if
they have a girl first – why is that do you think?
• A second child is permitted if the first one is
handicapped
• Parents who are only children themselves are allowed to
have two children – why is that?
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But not every country is quite
so drastic in its approach!
Let’s look at Kenya
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Kenya
• Kenya was the first country in sub-Saharan
Africa, in the late 1960s, to begin developing a
national family-planning campaign.
• The country's official population policy calls for
matching population size with available
resources, yet leaves decisions on family size up
to individual families.
• While the Kenyan government formulates
official strategies on family planning, promotion
of the message and means of family planning
falls mainly to local health-care offices and
nongovernmental organizations.
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Kenya
• By all accounts, the country's approach has
been successful.
• The average number of children per woman has
dropped to around four from around eight in
the 1980s, which constitutes one of the
fastest-ever national declines in family size.
• Contraceptive use has grown from seven
percent in 1978 to over 30 percent today.
• AIDS, which affects one in ten Kenyan adults,
is a significant factor in both higher
contraceptive use and the lower fertility rate.
20
Some posters used in Kenya
to encourage family planning
21
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23
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"I
stopped
using
family
planning
because
my
friends
told me it
is not
good for
my
health."
"That is
not true.
The
methods
we
recommend
for you are
safe."
25
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Kenya
• As you saw in the posters, Kenya's population
ads target both men and women,
• They point out the need for family planning
around the realities of population growth such
as overuse of land and scarcity of jobs.
• The campaigns also explain contraceptive
methods and provide assurance of their safety
and usefulness, especially in rural areas, where
suspicion and misunderstanding are common.
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Homework
• Open
• http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asiapacific/6346931.stm
• This is an article about China’s One-Child
Policy.
• This looks at one side of the problem.
• Your task: to decide whether enforced
population control is a good thing or a bad
thing.
• Use evidence to support your view
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