What Does the Election of
Yanukovych Mean for
Ukraine?
1
TARAS KUZIO
IERES, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY
12 FEBRUARY 2012
Why Tymoshenko Lost
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1. Incumbent: Sitting Prime Minister
during global crisis.
2. Political Culture: twice convicted
felon, uncouth, intellectually weak and
male chauvinist.
3. Gender: male patriarchal view of
women prevalent.
Why Tymoshenko Lost
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4. Yushchenko Factor:
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2008-09: Yushchenko attacked Tymoshenko but
ignored Yanukovych;
December 2009: leaked document outlining
Yushchenko-Yanukovych alliance;
both candidates the same;
both are ‘Moscow projects’;
supported by nationalists in Galicia;
Anti-semitic leaflets against Tymoshenko;
S.Bandera ‘Hero of ukraine’ decree : suspicious timing;
Why Tymoshenko Lost
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5. Negative Voting: some voters refused to again vote
negatively.
6. Damaged Goods:

spring 2009 coalition negotiations;
 Lozinsky murder affair and his absconding from
justice;
7. Election Campaign:

Yanukovych better focused campaign;
 American advisers;
 Populist Yanukovych billboards appealed to working
class and pensioner voters;
Why Tymoshenko Lost
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8. Desire for Change:
Voters fed up with five years of ‘orange’ squabbling and
instability;
 20% gave votes to change candidates (S.Tihipko and
A.Yatseniuk). Two thirds were former ‘orange’ voters and
some did not vote in round 2;
9. Oligarchs: majority of oligarchs supported Yanukovych
out of fear of Tymoshenko’s anti-corruption, renationalisation and anti-oligarch rhetoric.
10. Election Fraud:
 artificial low turnout in Western Ukraine;
 fraud in Regions strongholds: Donetsk, Crimea, Odesa.

Yanukovych Election: Domestic Policies
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 No autocephalous Orthodox Church;
 Russian as a second state language;
 1933 famine no longer described as ‘genocide’;
 Re-writing of history school textbooks in areas which
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touch on relations with Russia;
Economic policies that favour big business;
Return of Free Economic Zones;
Continued virtual struggle against corruption;
Stagnation in the rule of law;
Crimea and Odesa: Russian extremists continue to
entrench positions.
Yanukovych Election: Foreign Policies
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DA
 Medvedev European
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Security Treaty;
Extension of Black Sea
Fleet base beyond 2017;
Recognition of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia;
Join CIS Single Economic
Space Customs Union;
Gas consortium with
Russia established;
RosUkrEnergo returned.
NYET
 NATO MAP or
membership;
 IMF Stand By
Agreement revised;
 2010 gas contract
revised;
Yanukovych Election: Parliament
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Re-Format Coalition
Coalition 1: Current.
Coalition 2: Regions,
KPU, Lytvyn bloc: 219.
Could add part of Our
Ukraine;
3. Coalition 3:

Regions and Our
Ukraine, giving PM to
Our Ukraine;

Insufficient votes covered
by Lytvyn bloc, KPU.
1.
2.
Pre-Term Elections
 Little support from
Lytvyn bloc, KPU, Our
Ukraine, BYuT;
 Support by
Yushchenko (Our
Ukraine), Yatseniuk,
Tihipko, Baloga;
 Regions: Plan B.
Post-Election Political Instability
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1. Current Coalition: gridlock as Prime Minister
and President in conflict.
2. Re-formatted Coalition:
 Tymoshenko removed as PM;
 BYuT goes into opposition;
 Next elections in 2012;
3. Pre-Term Elections:
 instability as Tymoshenko would (as in Fall 2008)
seek to block elections;
 little support for elections in parliament.