Nuclear Weapons and other
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Technology, Uses, Proliferation,
and Control
Basic Facts
• USA, Russia, China only states with longrange weapons (easily within grasp of
France, India, UK)
• A nuclear missile can be delivered anywhere
in the world in under 30 minutes, less if
launched from naval ships.
• There is currently no defense against nuclear
weapons.
Motivating factor for Plutonium Files Abuses Was
Ostensibly Preparation for Nuclear Warfare
Brief history of the development of nuclear weapons
• Leo Szilard filed patent on neutron chain reaction in 1934
• Assigned patent to British admiralty in 1936 to keep it secret
• Argued relentlessly for secrecy in nuclear experimentation
• Einstein’s Letter to Roosevelt
• Formulation of the “Uranium Committee” and $6000
• In 1942 General Leslie Groves wanted him imprisoned for
duration of war
• Szilard and Enrico Fermi achieved the first sustained fission
chain reaction in Chicago in December 1942
• Birth of the Manhattan Project
• First nuclear detonation, Trinity, on July 16, 1945
Two chief approaches to constructing a nuclear weapon
Gun Assembly – U-235 (Figure by Federation of American Scientists)
Implosion Device PU-239 (Figure by Federation of American Scientists)
Countries with Nuclear Weapons (2002)
Country
United States
Russia
China
France
United Kingdom
India
Pakistan
Israel
North Korea
Ukraine
Number
10,240
8,400
390
350
200
60-90
24-48
100
?
200+
Year of first test
1945
1949
1964
1960
1952
1974
1998
?
?
Soviet Union
Nuclear weapons produce
a fireball at the core of the
explosion that simply melts
many objects, including
people.
Further out from the
explosion shock waves
topple other structures and
objects
Radiation is spread even
further out for miles
depending on size of
bomb.
Uses of Nuclear Weapons?
• Battlefield Weapons?
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WWII (A-Bombs on Japan)
NUTS (Nuclear Utilization Targeting Strategy)
NUTS also loosely known as “war fighting”
Oddly enough, usually Republicans have argued for this
(Eisenhower, Reagan, George W. Bush)
• Strategic Deterrence?
– MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)
• Terrorism?
– Rogue nuclear weapons (state sponsored?)
– Dirty Bombs
USA Nuclear Triangular
Technology-Strategy
ICBM’s
Deterrence
SLBMs
Subs
Long-range Bombers
B-52’s
B1’s
As Battlefield Weapons
• Must be used tactically
• Thus must be small
• Counter-force targeting – target enemy
military
• Problem: what if enemy has them too? If so
then tactical uses may escalate to strategic
and open Pandora’s Box – the war may spin
out of control.
• Basic Taboo may have blocked this type of
use, but we do not know and future may
show there is no Taboo.
Strategic Nuclear Strategy
• If have clear superiority, then “First-Strike”
may be possible, which would take out other
sides retaliatory capability and absorb
“acceptable” loses.
• If two opposing states have significant
retaliatory capabilities, these are “second
strike capabilities” – the ability to absorb a
nuclear strike and punish the other side with
unacceptable casualties.
• A policy of MAD necessitates second strike
capabilities, which the USA and USSR
possessed most of Cold War.
• Deterrence by punishment – counter-value
targeting.
• Logic is that rational thing to do is not launch
any weapons, because neither side could win
the war.
• Counter-intuitive finding though is peace
through strength – lots of nukes may have
aided US and USSR security
MAD relies on Deterrence
• Must have capabilities
• Must have credible threat
– Resolve to follow through
– Reputation for following through
– Clear Signals and Perceptions
– Risk and uncertainty must be manipulated,
such as sharing risk in brinksmanship or
games of chicken.
Today, India and Pakistan do not have
second-strike capabilities, which means
their situation is very dangerous. Why?
Similar situation to WWI, where first to
mobilize and strike the enemy may earn
huge battlefield advantage, which means
India and Pakistan may have itchy trigger
fingers if a crisis escalates to war. Even
worse, if Pakistan begins to lose a
conventional war, they may very well turn to
nukes.
Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems??
• Attempts go back to the late 1950s – none yet shown to
be reliable or cost-effective.
• A system was put in place (missile vs. missile) in early
1960s, but not seen as workable. Yet, threat of system
lead to ABM Treaty with Soviets in 1972. Both
superpowers saw MAD as stable and best option out of
undesirable alternatives, with the exception of …
• 1983, Pres. Reagan calls for Strategic Defense Initiative,
SDI, “Star Wars” system, non-stop research since but
many, many failures, including many falsified tests.
Good example of “Iron Triangle” problem of militaryindustrial complex.
President George W. Bush let the ABM Treaty
lapse. Implications?
• If successful, puts US in position of First Strike
Capability, but any workable system in near
future would not change balance of power in the
world except against China.
• Thus, any country that fears US nuclear threat
has higher incentive to build even more weapons,
otherwise the ultimate security dilemma ensues
where states are vulnerable to nuclear black-mail.
THAAD and Patriot Missile systems are most
realistic and useful technology to come from
four decades of research.
The Theater High Altitude Area Defense
(THAAD) appears feasible but not yet deployed,
but is only useful for tactical purposes in a
small area to protect troops in field, smaller
cities, etc.
Problems of ABM systems
• Highly unreliable to date
• Extremely expensive technology
• Even worse, Counter-measures extremely
cheap compared to most any ABM system.
• Must be dramatically precise considering
consequences of failure.
• Invites preemptive attack to take out ABM
system in time of crisis.
• Can’t provide defense against large-scale
nuclear attack. Thus, maybe N. Korea might be
deterred, but not Russia or in a few years China.
Chemical Weapons
• Includes: Mustard Gas, Risin, Sarin, VX, cyanide, etc.
– http://cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/
• Chemical weapons date back to WWI
• Used in Ethiopia (Italians), China (Japan), Iran and
against Kurds (Iraq)
• Today Chemical weapons are Poor Countries WMD
• USA is destroying its stocks
• Mostly effective on battlefield in small area, but not easily
controlled because of wind direction.
• Some use to terrorists in confined, crowded locations,
such as Tokyo subway attack with Sarin by Japanese
fringe group, Aum Shinrikyo cult, in 1994 and 1995.
Biological Weapons
• Very dangerous as a weapon
• Based on organic diseases such as anthrax,
cholera, plague, etc.
• Goal is a contagion effect where disease is
spread to enemy person to person after initial
exposure. The “attack that keeps on giving.”
• May not know right away there even was an
attack.
• See:
http://www.pugwash.org/reports/cbw/cbw5.htm
Biological Weapons contd.
• Not too difficult to create in the laboratory
• However, very difficult to deliver as weapons.
The biological agents need to be combined with
other substances to remain active when
exposed to air or other elements.
• It was unclear whether Iraq had the ability to use
germ warfare.
• USA and USSR had (has) stocks of both
chemical and biological weapons.
Past uses of Biological Weapons??
• Japan mass produced biological bombs with
cholera and the plague. These weapons were
used against China as punishment for aiding the
Doolittle Raids by USA.
• Was planning to use them against an American
invasion of the Japanese Islands. They were
also developing long-range bombers to possibly
bomb the west coast of the USA if war lasted
longer.
Other Uses ???
• USSR may have used such weapons in
Afghanistan to poison certain water
sources and villages known to be actively
resisting their forces.
• These were also alleged to have been
used in Cambodia and Laos by either
Vietnam or with help of USSR, but no solid
proof.
The Proliferation of WMD
Good or bad, and if bad how do
we stop it?
Is Proliferation of WMD Good?
• Deterrence works – threat of horrible wars
will produce stability in order to avoid
escalation.
• Balance of Terror equalizes power
discrepancies between countries – even
major military powers now cannot push
around any country at will.
Is proliferation WMD bad?
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Worse wars if deterrence fails
Accidents, especially in poor countries
Great powers like USA weakened
Sub-national proliferation – such as
terrorists
• MAD unlikely??
• Arms races
• Dangerous transition periods invite
preemption by enemies
Stopping Proliferation of WMD
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Export Controls of technology
Bargaining – N. Korea for example
Sanctions – Iraq, Pakistan, etc.
Hire foreign scientists (Russian, etc.)
Military intervention (Iraq, N. Korea??)
Global Disarmament (reduce prestige factor)
Solve underlying security problems so there is less
world tension.
• International Treaties: NPT (1968); Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty (1996); l972 Biological Weapons
Convention (BWC) in 1975.
Are you optimistic that any of these
measures can work?
None has shown to be very successful yet.
However, combination of export controls
with international law may be best bet.
Flaws: International law is in the end
voluntary and export controls require
states to be responsible and carefully
watch the companies working inside their
boundaries.