Decision Making
Module 3
LIS 580: Spring, 2006
Instructor- Michael Crandall
Roadmap
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Types of decisions
Models of decision making
The decision making process
Creativity
Shortcuts and traps
April 4, 2006
LIS580- Spring 2006
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Connecting the Dots
• “Making warning systems more sensitive
reduces the risk of surprise, but
increases the number of false alarms,
which in turn reduces sensitivity”
• “The Chief of Staff has to make
decisions, and his decisions must be
clear… To be sure, the clearer and
sharper the estimate, the clearer and
sharper the mistake..”
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Understanding Decision Making
• Puzzles, Problems, and Wicked Problems
– A discrepancy between a desirable and an actual
situation.
– Well structured, ill-structured, and complex
problems.
• Decision
– A choice made between available alternatives.
• Decision Making
– The process of developing and analyzing
alternatives and choosing from among them.
• Judgment
– The cognitive, or “thinking,” aspects of the
decision-making process.
G.Dessler, 2003
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Wicked Problems
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Proposed by H.J. Rittel and M. Webber of UC Berkeley in 1973.
Wicked problems do not have an exhaustive set of potential solutions.
Every wicked problem can be considered to be a symptom of another problem.
Discrepancies in representing a wicked problem can be explained in numerous
ways--the choice of explanation in turn determines the nature of the problem's
resolution.
Every wicked problem is essentially unique--lessons-learned are hard to transfer
across to other problems.
Wicked problems are often "solved" through group efforts.
Wicked problems require inventive/creative solutions.
Every implemented solution to a wicked problem has consequences, and may
cause additional problems.
Wicked problems have no stopping rule(s).
Solutions to wicked problems are not true-or-false, but instead better, worse, or
good enough.
There is no immediate and no ultimate test of a solution to a wicked problem.
The planner or designer (solving the problem) has no inherent right to solve the
problem, and no permission to make mistakes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problems
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Types of Decisions
Ill-structured
Type of
Problem
Well-structured
Nonprogrammed
Decisions
Programmed
Decisions
Top
Level in
Organization
Bottom
• Programmed Decision
– A decision that is repetitive and routine and can be made by
using a definite, systematic procedure.
• Nonprogrammed Decision
– A decision that is unique and novel.
• The Principle of Exception
– “Only bring exceptions to the way things should be to the
manager’s attention. Handle routine matters yourself.”
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Procedure and Form to Use for
Developing a Workplace Rule
FIGURE 3–1
Source: Copyright Gary Dessler, Ph.D.
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Decision-Making Models
• The Classical Approach
– Have complete or “perfect” information about the situation.
– Distinguish perfectly between the problem and its
symptoms.
– Identify all criteria and accurately weigh all the criteria
according to preferences.
– Know all alternatives and can assess each one against
each criterion.
– Accurately calculate and choose the alternative with the
highest perceived value.
– Make an “optimal” choice without being confused by
“irrational” thought processes.
The problem
is clear and
unambiguous
A single, welldefined goal
is to be
achieved
All alternatives
and
consequences
are known
Preferences
are clear
Preferences
are constant
and stable
No time or
cost
constraints
exist
Final choice
will maximize
economic
payoff
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Decision-Making Models (cont’d)
• The Administrative Approach
– Bounded Rationality (Herbert Simon)
• The boundaries on rational decision making
imposed by one’s values, abilities, and limited
capacity for processing information.
– Satisfice
• To stop the decision-making process when
satisfactory alternatives are found, rather than
to review solutions until an optimal alternative
is discovered.
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Checklist 3.1
The Decision-Making Process
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Define the problem.
Clarify your objectives.
Identify alternatives.
Analyze the consequences.
Make a choice.
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Step 1. Define the Problem
1. Start by writing down your initial
assessment of the problem.
2. Dissect the problem.
– What triggered this problem (as I’ve
assessed it)?
– Why am I even thinking about solving this
problem?
– What is the connection between the
trigger and the problem?
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Step 2. Clarify Your Objectives
1. Write down all the concerns you hope to
address through your decision.
2. Convert your concerns into specific,
concrete objectives.
3. Separate ends from means to establish
your fundamental objectives.
4. Clarify what you mean by each objective.
5. Test your objectives to see if they capture
your interests.
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Step 3. Identify Alternatives
1. Generate as many alternatives as you
can yourself.
2. Expand your search, by checking with
other people, including experts.
3. Look at each of your objectives and
ask, “how?”
4. Know when to stop.
G.Dessler, 2003
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Step 4. Analyze the
Consequences
1. Mentally put yourself into the future.
– Process Analysis
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Solving problems by thinking through the process
involved from beginning to end, imagining, at each step,
what actually would happen.
2. Eliminate any clearly inferior alternatives.
3. Organize your remaining alternatives into a
table (matrix) that provides a concise,
bird's-eye view of the consequences of
pursuing each alternative.
G.Dessler, 2003
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Consequence Matrix
G.Dessler, 2003
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Step 5. Make a Choice
• Analyses are useless unless the right
choice is made.
– Under perfect conditions, simply review the
consequences of each alternative, and
choose the alternative that maximizes
benefits.
– In practice, making a decision—even a
relatively simple one like choosing a
computer—usually can’t be done so
accurately or rationally.
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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How To Make Better Decisions
1. Increase Your Knowledge
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–
–
–
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Ask questions.
Get experience.
Use consultants.
Do your research.
Force yourself to recognize the facts when you
see them (maintain your objectivity).
2. Use Your Intuition
– A cognitive process whereby a person instinctively
makes a decision based on his or her
accumulated knowledge and experience.
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Are You More Rational or More
Intuitive?
Source: Adapted and reproduced by permission of the Publisher, Psychological Assessment Resources. Inc., Odessa FL 33556,
from the Personal Style Inventory by William Taggart, Ph.D., and Barbara Hausladen. Copyright 1991, 1993 by PAR, Inc.
April 4, 2006
LIS580- Spring 2006
FIGURE 3–2
G.Dessler, 2003
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How To Make Better Decisions
(cont’d)
3. Weigh the Pros and Cons
– Quantify realities by sizing up your options, and
taking into consideration the relative importance
of each of your objectives.
4. Don’t Overstress the Finality of Your
Decision
– Remember that few decisions are forever.
– Knowing when to quit is sometimes the smartest
thing a manager can do.
5. Make Sure the Timing Is Right
G.Dessler, 2003
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Decision Matrix
• Use weights to provide adjustments for
importance of criteria
• Often subjective, but helps to prioritize
FIGURE 3–3
G.Dessler, 2003
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Creativity and Decision Making
• Creativity
– The process of developing
original, novel responses to
a problem.
Creativity
skills
Expertise
• Brainstorming
Creativity
– A creativity-stimulating
technique in which prior
judgments and criticisms are
specifically forbidden from
being expressed in order to
encourage the free flow of
ideas which are encouraged.
Task motivation
• Nominal group technique
– A decision-making technique
in which group members are
physically present but
operate independently
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Nominal Group Technique
• Each participant contributes individual
ideas
• Ideas are then ranked individually
• Totals are summed for final rank
http://www.ryerson.ca/~mjoppe/ResearchProcess/841TheNominalGroupTechnique.htm
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Checklist 3.4
How to be More Creative
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Create a culture of creativity.
Encourage brainstorming.
Suspend judgment.
Get more points of view.
Provide physical support for
creativity.
 Encourage anonymous input.
G.Dessler, 2003
April 4, 2006
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Decision-making Shortcuts and
Traps
• Using a Heuristic
– Applying a rule of thumb or an approximation as a
shortcut to decision making.
• Anchoring
– Unconsciously giving disproportionate weight to
the first information available.
• Adopting a Psychological Set
– The tendency to rely on a rigid strategy or
approach when solving a problem.
• Perception (Personal Bias)
– The unique way each person defines stimuli,
depending on the influence of past experiences
and the person’s present needs and personality.
G.Dessler, 2003
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Using Creativity to Find a Solution
Source: Applied Human Relations, 4th ed., by Benton/Halloran cW 1991.
Reprinted by permission of Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
April 4, 2006
LIS580- Spring 2006
FIGURE 3–6
G.Dessler, 2003
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Next Time
• We’ll talk about planning basics
• Read Chapter 4 and assigned articles
• For discussion article, think about these
questions:
– Do you think EMP used a well-defined planning
process prior to opening?
– Since the opening?
– If any planning has been done, who do you think
has been involved in it?
– Does planning matter in this situation?
– What steps might EMP take to provide more
success in the future?
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