Climate Change Adaptation
• Reclamation Climate Studies
• CEQ Climate Adaptation
• Scientific Integrity Policy
Paul R. Houser
Managers’ Conference
September 7-8, 2011
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Reclamation Climate Studies
2009 SECURE Water Act (PL 111-11)
• Federal agencies that conduct water management have a
responsibility to take a lead role in assessing risks to the water
resources and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies
From USGS Circular 1331 (Brekke et al. 2009)
• Climate Change and Water Working Group (CCAWWG): NOAA,
USGS, USACE, EPA, NASA, FEMA collaboration
• Climate change is occurring; effects differ regionally.
• Water resources management could be affected; hydroclimate
conditions becoming non-stationary.
• Climate change is one of many challenges facing water managers.
Secretarial Order 3289 and 3297 – WaterSMART
• Establishes Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Climate Science
Centers, and Basin Studies
http://www.usbr.gov/climate
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments (WWCRA) Hydrologic Projections (2011)
http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html
112 Transient Hydrologic
Projections covering
western U.S.…
SECURE Report to
Congress, 2011
focus on median
changes; future
reports have broader
scope
Analyses of Periodchanges in climate
and hydrology
8 “big basin” VIC
hydrology model-apps
from Univ. of WA…
Data-service,
Reclamation and
broader public use
(Summer 2011)
http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/wwcra.html
Technical Report,
data-development
(TSC 86-68210,
March 2011)
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Peer Review
112 Transient Climate Projections…
Spatial Extent of Analyses
WWCRA
http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/wwcra.html
SECURE Water
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Colorado River
Annual Max. Week Runoff, kcfs
Annual Max Weekly Runoff
Change Through Time
2020s
2050s
Temp
Colorado River above Imperial Dam
150
100
50
1950
2000
2050
2100
Precip
Water Year
•
Flood Control Implications
Annual Min. Week Runoff, kcfs
Annual Min Weekly Runoff
Colorado River above Imperial Dam
Snow
10
8
6
1950
2000
2050
2100
Water Year
•
Environmental Flow Implications
HUGE CAVEAT – e.g. calibration, validation
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
2070s
2070s-1990s
http://www.usbr.gov/climate
2050s-1990s
2020s-1990s
SECURE Report: Westwide Impacts
(e.g. annual and seasonal runoff)
annual
Dec-Mar
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Apr-Jul
SECURE Water
Future Work
• Analyze demands utilizing legacy
tools with climate projections
• Put activities within broader context
of scenario planning (similar to CO
Basin Study Approach).
• Include AR5 climate projections.
• Next Secure Water report due in
2016 (every 5 years)
Sector Impacts
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http://www.usbr.gov/climate
Hydropower
Ecological Resiliency
Endangered Species
Recreation
Water Deliveries
Water Quality
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force
• Co-Chaired: Council on Environmental Quality, (CEQ) Office of
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and National
Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
• October 2009: Executive Order calling on Adaptation Task Force to
recommend how Federal agency policies and practices can
reinforce a national climate change adaptation strategy
• David Hayes represents DOI on the CEQ Adaptation Task Force
Strategic vision: a resilient, healthy and prosperous Nation in the face
of a changing climate. Guiding principles:
• Adopt integrated approaches
• Prioritize the most vulnerable
• Use best available science
• Apply risk-management methods and tools
• Apply ecosystem-based approaches
http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Interagency Climate Change
Adaptation Task Force
Progress Report Recommendations: October 14, 2010
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make adaptation a standard part of Agency planning
ensure climate change information is easily accessible
align response efforts across jurisdictions and missions
strategy to support international adaptation
partnerships to support local, state, and tribal decision makers
Liz Klein coordinated Draft 2011 report DOI response.
Executive Order (“EO”) 13514 establishes an integrated strategy
towards sustainability and requires agencies to evaluate climate change
risks and vulnerabilities to manage effects of climate change on the
agency’s mission and operations.
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Establish agency climate change adaptation plan by June 2012.
Participate in CEQ climate change adaptation planning workshops
Agencies submit a draft high-level analysis of agency vulnerability and 3-5
adaptation actions by October 2011, final analysis by March 2012.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
CEQ Draft National Action Plan: Priorities For
Managing Freshwater Resources In A
Changing Climate June 2, 2011
Mission: develop a national action plan to identify steps that Federal
agencies can take to improve management of freshwater resources
in a changing climate.
RECOMENDATIONS
1.Plan to Adapt Water Resources Management to a Changing Climate.
2.Improve Information for Water Resource Decision‐Making.
3.Strengthen Water Resources Vulnerability Assessments.
4.Expand Water Use Efficiency.
5.Support Integrated Water Resources Management.
6.Support Training and Outreach to Build Response Capability.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/ceq/initiatives/adaptation
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Secure Report: BOR Adaptation Actions
• Extending Water Supplies
– Yuma Desalting Plant
• Rural Water Supply
– Lewiston Orchards Project
• Water Planning
– Bay Delta Conservation Program
• River Restoration
– Trinity River Restoration Program
• Water Conservation
– WaterSMART Water and Energy Efficiency Grants
• Hydropower
– Hoover retrofitting to wide head turbines
http://www.usbr.gov/climate
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Scientific
Integrity
• March 2009: Presidential Memorandum
on Scientific Integrity
• Sept 2010: Secretarial Order 3305:
Ensuring Scientific Integrity within the
Department of the Interior
• Dec 2010: Office of Science and
Technology Policy Memorandum on
Scientific Integrity
• Feb 2011: Salazar Announces New
Scientific Integrity Policy and
Departmental Science Integrity Officer
• Feb 2011: Deputy Interior Secretary
announces DOI Policy, asks Bureaus to
incorporate into Bureau policies
• July 2011: Reclamation policy RLT and
Public Review, revisions underway.
http://www.doi.gov/news/pressreleases/Salazar-Announces-NewScientific-Integrity-Policy-and-Designation-of-Departmental-ScienceIntegrity-Officer.cfm
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Goals of the policy
• Decisions based on science and
scholarship are respected as credible.
• Science is conducted with integrity and
excellence.
• Sustain culture of scientific and scholarly
integrity that is enduring.
• Employees are proud to uphold the high
standards and lead by example.
• Establish scientific code of conduct.
• Policy applies to all employees and
volunteers, contractors, cooperators,
partners, permittees, leasees, and
grantees.
http://elips.doi.gov/app_dm/act_getfiles.cfm?relnum=3889
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor
Reporting and Resolving
Allegations of Loss of Integrity
• Allegations submitted in writing
• Bureau Scientific Integrity Officer (BSIO)
reviews allegation
• Allegation must be significant departure
from accepted practices of scientific
community
• Misconduct is intentional fabrication,
falsification or plagiarism
• Review panel may be convened
• Corrective action by human resources
and the appropriate manager/supervisor
http://elips.doi.gov/app_dm/act_getfiles.cfm?relnum=3889
Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor