Finding Y* and Constructing Multipliers Lecture 12 Dr. Jennifer P. Wissink ©2015 Jennifer P. Wissink, all rights reserved. October 1, 2015 More Interesting Reads/Listens Salon interviews the late Adam Smith – The 18th century's patron saint of free markets shares his surprising views about Barack Obama and the U.S. economy – http://www.salon.com/2009/10/06/adam_smith/singl eton/ – THANKS MANU R! Fear the Boom and Bust – A Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk i>clicker question HeavenLand is a country that is so nice that nearly all of its working citizenry stay in the country and work in HeavenLand’s economy. In addition, since HeavenLand is so nice there are a huge number of foreign citizens working in HeavenLand. Which one of the following statements is most likely to be TRUE? A. B. C. D. E. Heavenland's G.N.P. will be greater than its G.D.P. Heavenland's G.D.P. will be greater than its G.N.P. Heavenland's G.N.P. and G.D.P. will be equal. Heavenland's G.D.P. will tend to be equal to its disposal national income. Heavenland's trade balance will be equal to zero. Which one of the following individuals is considered unemployed according to the way the U.S. calculates their official unemployment statistics? A. John, who works without pay for 30 hours per week in the family owned tax accounting business. B. Jill, who works 2 hours a week at Walmart as a greeter. C. Rose, who is currently a full time student at Cornell and working 60 hours a week on her studies to please her mom. D. Leyton, a former NFL football player just released from his contract who is now actively searching for some other job while taking a night class at TC3 (the local community college). His resume states, “Put me in coach, I’m ready to play!” E. A female with a Ph.D. in physics who decides to stay home and take care of her children after graduation. HHs: Consumption Function Concepts the subsistence level of consumption the breakeven point – dis-saving and saving the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) the average propensity to consume (APC) HHs: Saving Function From consumption to saving Recall: C+S=Y, so… S = Y-C Like a see-saw Marginal Propensity to save Average propensity to save Note it will always be the case that: – MPC + MPS=1 – APC + APS=1 A LINEAR Aggregate Consumption Function Derived from the Equation C = 100 + .75Y AGGREGATE INCOME, Y (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION, C (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 0 100 80 160 100 175 200 250 400 400 600 550 800 700 1,000 850 Deriving a Saving Function C 100 .75Y from a Consumption Function S Y C S 100.25Y Y - C = AGGREGATE AGGREGATE INCOME CONSUMPTION (Billions of (Billions of Dollars) Dollars) S AGGREGATE SAVING (Billions of Dollars) 0 100 -100 80 160 -80 100 175 -75 200 250 -50 400 400 0 600 550 50 800 700 100 1,000 850 150 Firms: The Desired Investment Function Desired Investment might depend on: – – – – – – – Aggregate Output(Income): Y expected rate of return interest rates technological state of world business expectations animal spirits? attitudes? We will make this part of our model very simplistic for a while... Note: Keynes’ understanding/modeling of investment was so-so The Desired/Planned Investment Function For now, we assume that desired/planned investment does not change when income (Y) changes. It is said to be an autonomous variable. a.k.a. exogenous NOTE: – Define MPI – So..., marginal propensity to invest = 0 Actual versus Planned Investment Desired or planned investment refers to the additions to capital stock and inventory that are desired or planned by firms. Actual investment is the actual amount of investment that takes place; it includes items such as unplanned changes in inventories. Aggregate Desired Expenditure (AEd) for our Simple Linear Frugal Economy AE C (Y ) I d d Equilibrium Y* Aggregate output/income ≡ Y Aggregate desired expenditure =AEd(Y) = C(Y) + Id Equilibrium Y* where: Y = AEd(Y), or Y* = C (Y*) + Id SUPPOSE: Y > [C(Y) + Id] – – – – Actual aggregate output/income > aggregate desired expenditure So inventory investment is greater than planned So actual investment is greater than planned investment So something will change! SUPPOSE [C(Y) + Id] > Y – – – – Aggregate desired expenditure > actual aggregate output/income So inventory investment is smaller than planned So actual investment is less than planned investment So something will change! Equilibrium Y* - Graphically Equilibrium Y* - Algebraically AE d C I d C 100 .75Y I 25 d By substituting (C) and (Id) into (AEd) we get: AE d 100.75Y 25 Now impose the equilibrium condition that Y* = AEd(Y*). Y * 100 .75Y * 25 There is only one value of Y* for which this statement is true. We can find it by rearranging terms: Y * .75Y * 100 25 Y * .75Y * 125 .25Y * 125 125 Y* 500 .25 Equilibrium Y*- Using A Chart C 100 .75Y I d 25 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) UNPLANNED INVENTORY CHANGE Y (C + I) EQUILIBRIUM? (Y = AE?) AGGREGATE OUTPUT (INCOME) (Y) AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION (C) PLANNED INVESTMENT (I) PLANNED AGGREGATE EXPENDITURE (AE) C+I 100 175 25 200 100 No 200 250 25 275 75 No 400 400 25 425 25 No 500 475 25 500 0 Yes 600 550 25 575 + 25 No 800 700 25 725 + 75 No 1,000 850 25 875 + 125 No The Saving & Investment Approach to Equilibrium Y* An alternative approach that some like better. In a frugal economy we have: – HH saving going out as a leakage – Firm investment coming in as an injection Recall: – In the frugal economy, AEd = C + Id – In equilibrium, Y = AEd – We also know that HHs allocate aggregate output/income to either saving or consumption: Y = C + S – So… by substitution, at Y*, C + S = C + Id at Y*, S = Id So... if Saving = Planned/Desired Investment we are at an equilibrium Y* Equilibrium Y*- Using A Chart C 100 .75Y I d 25 (1) AGGREGATE OUTPUT (INCOME) (Y) (2) (3) AGGREGATE PLANNED CONSUMPTION (C) INVESTMENT (Id) (4) (5) PLANNED UNPLANNED AGGREGATE INVENTORY d EXPENDITURE (AE ) CHANGE C + Id Y (C + Id) (6) EQUILIBRIUM? (Y = AEd?) 100 175 (S= -75) 25 200 100 No 200 250 (S= -50) 25 275 75 No 400 400 (S=0) 25 425 25 No 500 475 (S=25) 25 500 0 Yes 600 550 (S=50) 25 575 + 25 No 800 700 (S=100) 25 725 + 75 No 1,000 850 (S=150) 25 875 + 125 No The S = Id Approach to Equilibrium Y* i>clicker question Suppose we are in equilibrium at Y*. Suppose we have an exogenous increase in Id. Suppose Id increases from $25 to $30. Y* will... A. B. C. D. E. stay the same. increase by $5. decrease by $5. increase by more than $5. decrease by less than $5.