Why a Sense of Global Community
is Needed to Survive the Coming
World-wide Energy Crisis
Peak oil, ecological carrying capacity,
and the perilous phase transition to renewable energy sources.
Presentation at the LMU Bellarmine Forum, November 7, 2005
Dr. Michael Mills
Psychology Department
Loyola Marymount University
Some bad news, and
some good news,
about our future…
•
The bad news (according to ecologists and population biologists):
– Thomas Malthus:
• The population of a species increases geometrically
• But the carrying capacity of the environment is finite,
• Populations fluctuate between geometic growth and sudden die-offs
– Our species may be no exception.
– Carrying capacity of earth for humans is maybe 1 - 2 billion people (?)
» And we are already have over 6 billion people…
•
The good news (according to “cornucopian technologists”):
– Ray Kurzweil:
• Scientific knowledge, like populations, grows geometrically too…
– May allow us solve problems of carrying capacity, cure disease and aging,
» Technology will help us overcome population overshoot and collapse.
•
The outcome of the Malthusian / Kurzwilian “grudge match:”
– More than just an academic exercise
• One of the two scenarios will likely occur
– within your generation’s (college students’) lifetime.
Overview of Presentation
• Part 1: The Coming Worldwide Energy Crisis
– The world is running out of cheap oil and other fossil fuels at a
time when demand is increasing.
• Part A: Malthusian Perspective: Possible worldwide economic
problems, societal collapses, wars, and even population die-offs.
• Part B: Kurzweilian Perspective: Technology will come to the
rescue
• Part 2: Why a Sense of Global Community
is Needed to Survive the Coming World-wide Energy
Crisis
– Declining energy results in what game theorists call a “Negative-Sum
Game”
• This condition creates greater risks for social conflict and war.
– How can people of the world cooperate to survive the energy crisis?
Part 1:
The Coming Energy Crisis
• Part A: The Malthusian Perspective
We have become “Oilcoholics.”
• “Oil Storm” movie trailer:
– FX Channel movie: “Oil Storm” (June, 2005).
– Exemplifies our dangerous dependence on oil
– What would happen if our access to oil was
interrupted?
• http://www.fxnetworks.com/shows/originals/oilstor
m/main.html
“Oil Storm” movie trailer:
Thomas Malthus
An Essay on the Principle of Population
• "It is an obvious truth, which
has been taken notice of by
many writers, that population
must always be kept down to
the level of the means of
subsistence; but no writer that
the Author recollects
has inquired particularly into
the means by which this level
is effected..."
-- Thomas Malthus, 1798 An
Essay on the Principle of
Population
• http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~steph
an/malthus/malthus.0.html
Population in a Petri dish
(from: http://321energy.com/editorials/petch/petch070505.html)
Geometric rates of increase in a finite
world…
Source: Dr. Albert Bartlett
http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/symposium/bartlett/bartlett.html
The last minutes in the petri dish.
11:54 a.m.
1/64 full (1.5%)
63/64 empty
11:55 a.m.
1/32 full (3%)
31/32 empty
11:56 a.m.
1/16 full (6%)
15/16 empty
11:57 a.m.
1/8
full (12%)
7/8
empty
11:58 a.m.
1/4
full (25%)
3/4
empty
11:59 a.m.
1/2
full (50%)
1/2
empty
12:00 noon
full (100%)
0% empty
“The Introduction, Increase and Crash of Reindeer
on St. Matthew Island”, by David Klein
• 20 reindeer were introduced to
St. Matthew Island in 1944
• Lots to eat, no predators
• Population exploded
•
By 1963, the density of the
reindeer on the island had
reached 47 per square mile
• They ate all the lichens (their
food) on the island
• In 1963, there was a die-off –
about 6,000 reindeer starved
to death
•
http://dieoff.org/page80.htm
“The Introduction, Increase and Crash of
Humans on Easter Island…”
• A few humans arrived about
400 A.D.
• Population exploded to as
many as 20,000
• They cut down trees to move
the stone statues
• No trees = no boats, no top
soil
• About 1700 AD – die off of up
to 18,000 people due to
starvation and cannibalism.
• “Easter Island is Earth writ
small” – Jared Diamond
Imagine the world as a petri dish
“The Introduction, Increase and Crash of
Humans on Earth Island…”
• The essential energy resource to support
industrial/technological civilization: oil
– Sobering Fact: There is no energy-equivalent
substitute for oil,
• in terms of its advantages of energy density, transportability,
range, safety and cost.
– Also, oil is used to make fertilizer to grow food, and in
many everyday products (plastics, etc.)
– Oil has unique advantages for transportation:
• Imagine trying to fly an airplane on a non-oil power source:
Wood? Coal? Electricity? Nuclear? Hydrogen?
– Problem: like trees on Easter Island, oil is a finite
resource. And, we are gradually running out…
Peak Oil Discoverer
M. King Hubbert 1903-1989
• Shell Oil Geologist / Petroleum
Scientist
– Highly qualified and intellectually
courageous
• In 1954 he predicted that U.S. oil
would peak about 1970
– Universally criticized at the time
– After 1970 he became highly
respected
• In 1984 Hubbert predicted world peak
oil in the early 2000s
PEAK OIL: When you plot the production of an aggregate
of oil fields over time you get roughly a bell curve
Mid point
1st half
Top of the curve
2nd half
USA Oil Peaked in 1970
http://www.oilcrisis.com/de/lecture.html
Peaking Oil and Gas
Iran peaked: 1974
Russia peaked: 1987
Saudi Arabia peak – 2005?
• In 2005 natural “gas production has peaked in
North America,"
-- Exxon Chief Executive Lee Raymond (Reuters, June 21, 2005)
Jean Laherr`ere, Estimates of Oil Reserves, paper presented at the EMF/IEA/IEW
meeting in Laxenburg, Austria, June 19, 2001.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ECS/IEW2001/pdffiles/Papers/Laherrere-long.pdf
Crude oil production by the world's largest private
oil companies is in decline as of first half of 2005.
How much time do we have left?
Another related problem:
Oil Demand-Production Cross-Over
• Oil demand now
exceeds supply.
• New sources of
increased oil demand:
China and India
•
Source:
http://money.cnn.com/2005/08/12/markets/oil.reut/in
dex.htm
Oil demand expected to double in 25 years,
while oil reserves will be plummeting.
Demand for oil is
increasing, but oil
production is decreasing.
The red portion
represents demand short
fall.
Result: oil prices go
through the roof starting
in 2005…
Exxon-Mobil Report, Oct. 2004
DOCUMENTARY
"THE END OF
SUBURBIA"
SHOWING IN
OTTAWA
If this is such a serious problem,
why haven’t we heard about it?
• Time horizons:
–
–
–
–
Business: Annual Profits
Government: Next election (4 – 6 years)
Media: Dramatic headlines of current events
People in general:
• in ancestral environment, life span about 35 years
-- discount future events over current events
• Denial?
– Nothing like this has ever happened before
• Or, if it has (1970s oil shocks), problem quickly reversed
• Jiminy Cricket syndrome – technology to the rescue!
• Loss Aversion – invested in current infrastructure
– Dislike the idea of change, especially, reducing consumption.
But… the mass media (both fiction and non-fiction)
is starting to catch on…
• "How to Kick the Oil Habit"
– Time Magazine, Oct. 23, 2005
– "If this explosion of (renewable energy)
innovation has a problem, however, it may be
that the developments are coming too late to
allow a smooth transition to the postpetroleum
era."
Chevron TV ad.
http://www.chevron.com/about/advertising/
Chevron TV ad.
Exxon Energy Video
Source: http://exxonmobil.com/corporate/Campaign/Campaign_energychallenge_home.asp
Video Clip (fiction):
• “Syrinia” movie trailer:
– Those who control oil, control the world.
– Increasing international conflict (“resource
wars”) over the remaining, dwindling oil
supplies.
– To be released in December, 2005.
• http://movies.yahoo.com/feature/syrianaqt.html
Non-Fiction
• Article: “Outcome Grim at Oil War Game -Former Officials Fail to Prevent Recession in
Mock Energy Crisis”
– By John Mintz, Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 24, 2005; Page A19
• “The United States would be all but powerless to
protect the American economy in the face of a
catastrophic disruption of oil markets, high-level
participants in a war game concluded yesterday.”
Declining oil production & rising
demand = ever rising gas prices
• Rising gas prices
(hypothetical):
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
2005: $2.60/gallon
2006: $3.25/gallon?
2007: $4.10/gallon?
2008: $5.95/gallon?
2009: $11.54/gallon?
2010: $16.82/gallon?
2015: $???
Peak Oil and Economic Effects
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/24/161535/296#comments
Recent Quotes:
• "We're all going to have to diversify away from hydrocarbons over
time.”
-- President George W. Bush, April 19, 2005
• “Doing nothing or doing too little too late will lead to a global
economic and geopolitical tsunami with potentially devastating
ramifications.”
-- U.S. Congressman Roscoe Bartlet. (2005)
• "Peaking (oil) will be catastrophic... We are about to drive the car
over the cliff and say, `Oh my God, What have we done?’”
-- Robert L. Hirsch, US Dept. of Energy consultant, 2005.
• “After you drive a car off a cliff, it’s too late to hit the brakes. In effect,
we have gone over the edge of the cliff.”
-- Kenneth Deffeyes, author “Beyond Oil”
Recent Quotes:
• (Peak oil) “…is one of the biggest social and political challenges for
this century.”
– Robert K. Kaufmann, Professor, Center for Energy & Environmental
Studies, Boston University. (2005)
• “We’ve embarked on the beginning of the last days of the age of oil.”
– Mike Bowlin, Chairman and CEO, ARCO, 1999
and Chairman, American Petroleum Institute (2005)
• “My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet airplane.
His son will ride a camel.” --Saudi adage
• “Whether … (a transition to renewable energy) will come in time to
avoid an energy crunch depends in part on how high a priority we
give energy research and development.”
– Richard A. Kerr and Robert F. Service, Science, Vol 309, Issue 5731,
101 , 1 July 2005
Have Saudi’s Overstated their Oil
Reserves?
• Investment banker
Matthew Simmons.
• Highlights many
discrepancies between
Saudi Arabia's actual
production potential and
its seemingly extravagant
resource claims.
• May in fact be peaking
soon.
What might we expect in near future?
• Ever rising gasoline prices.
• Fewer recreational “road
trips.”
• More use of trains.
• Airline travel ever more
expensive.
• Commuting from the suburbs
ever more expensive.
• Electricity, gas, heating oil,
become ever more expensive.
• Rising inflation – everything
will cost more (due to rising
shipping and production
costs).
• Economic recessions.
• International conflict over oil
resources.
Worst case future scenarios:
Economic recessions.
We might see a return
of the Great
Depression.
Maybe a “Malthusian
catastrophe”
(e.g., population dieoff).
Wonder what life would be like without
cheap oil?
•We already have examples: North Korea and
Cuba.
•LA Times Article:
– "GLIMPSES OF A HERMIT NATION A decade after a massive
famine, North Koreans are still struggling. In Chongjin, deprivation
spurs change.” By Barbara Demick, LA Times Staff Writer, July 3,
2005.
– “…outsiders know relatively little about its people or the miseries they
have endured since a famine in the mid-1990s wiped out an
estimated 2 million people.”
MSNBC.com article: “Think it's hot? Be glad you're not in
Cuba - Daily blackouts putting nation in a bad mood.”
July 12, 2005
•
•
•
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8500543/print/1/displaymode/1098/
“HAVANA — Summer’s searing
temperatures getting you down?
Just be glad you don’t live in Cuba
where daily blackouts make it
about impossible to beat this
year’s record heat.”
“At first, the blackouts were
tolerable, four hours twice a week.
But by mid-month they had grown
to daily six-hour ordeals.”
“Still, she considers herself lucky.
‘We live on the top floor apartment
so we get to use the roof to sleep.”
People’s biggest complaint has to
do with the nighttime blackouts.
It’s hard to sleep without the use
of an air conditioner or fan.’”
•
Cuba at Night
Cuba’s vs. N. Korea Oil Crisis:
Why was Cuba able to avoid famine?
• Cuba had a similar oil crisis when the
Soviet Union collapsed, but, unlike
North Korea, they were able to avoid
famine.
• Why? How?
Historical Energy Sources:
Energy Phase Transitions
• Wood, which was replaced by
• Coal, in the 1800s, which was replaced by
• Oil, in the 1900s, which must be replaced
by a renewable energy source…
• _________ ? in the 2000s (?)
– Solar?
– Wind?
– Nuclear Fusion (hot or cold)? (Current nuclear
fission is finite and non-renewable)
Energy Phase Transitions
• Each previous “energy phase transition”
wood -> coal -> oil
was to a more dense energy source.
• PROBLEMS WE FACE NOW
– Energy Density: All clean, renewable energy sources
are far less dense
– Demand for wood and coal could be met when they
were needed.
• But demand for oil will rise inexorably, as production
inexorably decreases. Demand cannot be met.
Perilous Energy Phase Transition Period
to renewable energy sources
• Do we have enough time?
– Or, is it already too late?
• Transition period is very risky.
– Huge infrastructure changes / investments
• It takes time to transition smoothly – we
may not have started soon enough.
– Costs of infrastructure change will be
enormous
– We need to start immediately.
The Kurzweilian Perspective:
Scientific technology to the rescue!
• Part B:
– Ray Kurzweil:
• Technological knowledge will increase
geometrically
• Exponential explosion of scientific knowledge will
allow us solve problems of carrying capacity, find
unlimited energy sources (e.g., fusion), cure
disease and aging, and to become immortal.
The Law of Accelerating Returns
• Ray Kurzweil argues:
– Machine intelligence will
surpass human intelligence,
leading to “The Singularity”
-- Technological change so
rapid and profound it
represents a rupture in the
fabric of human history
– Merger of biological and
non-biological intelligence
http://www.kurzweilai.net/article
s/art0134.html?printable=1
Possible sources of a breakthrough
“techno energy rescue”?
• Nuclear fusion – cold or hot?
–
E.g., “Focus Fusion” -- http://www.opensourceenergy.org/txtlstvw.aspx?LstID=95defd1e-f25c-4a33-8002a69aca481e6a
• “Hydrino Energy”?
– Controversial “classical quantum mechanics”
– Posits that an electron can move much closer to the proton at the heart of a
hydrogen atom and, in doing so, releases substantial amounts of energy
• http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,3605,1627424,00.html /
http://www.hydrino.org/
http://physicsweb.org/articles/news/9/8/4
• Methane hydrates (non-renewable)?
– Buried beneath the seabed and Arctic permafrost. A mixture of ice and
natural gas,
• May contain more carbon than existing reserves of oil, coal and gas put
together.
• But – can it be extracted?
Current renewable energy
technology (no techo-fix needed).
• Solar concentrators can
be used for: Electrical
Power Generation,
Hydrogen Production
• 100 square mile area
could provide all electrical
needs of U.S.
• Another 100 sq miles
could provide all of our
transportation energy
•
From: http://www.shec-labs.com/products.php
• A Solar Concentrator:
100 square miles – solar PV could meet the
entire U.S. yearly electrical needs.
http://www.energycooperation.org/solarh2.htm
Part 1 Conclusion:
For today’s college students,
in your lifetime …
• From the baby boom generation to yours:
– Sorry, we used up most of the cheap oil…
– But, we developed a foundation of scientific
knowledge that might help rescue you
• but we must start on a crash program immediately to
transition to renewable energy…
• Within 20 – 50 years, you will likely know
who “won” – either:
– Malthusian scenario: Economic collapse and perhaps
a significant world population die off
– Kurzweilian scenario : Knowledge “singularity” – a
scientific/technological energy transition rescue
Part 2: Global Cooperation
During the Perilous Phase Transition to Renewable Energy
• “The life contest is primarily a competition for
available energy.”
– Ludwig Boltzman, Physicist (1886) Der zweite
Hauptsatz der mechanischen Waermetheorie, 1886
(Georold, Vienna) p. 210.
• E.G., contest for the energy contained in food.
• Now, also a contest for fossil fuels
• “Energy determines what you can do, and often
you can do what you will do.”
– Fredric Cottrell, Energy and Society (1955)
• “Whoever controls the oil, controls the world.”
How can we avoid an economic
collapse, even a Malthusian die off?
• Depletion of fossil fuels will lower energy availability by about 3% 6% each year, every year, from here on out…
– …not pretty.
• We have to immediately
– conserve oil and gas, and
– rapidly transition to renewable energy (solar, wind, etc.)
– hope for an extraordinary energy technology rescue (e.g., fusion, etc.)
• It is too risky now to rely only on a possible future “techno-fix”
• Need now:
– World-wide conservation of fossil fuels
– Build infrastructure for current renewable energy
– Invest in research to try to find a breakthrough “techo-fix”
Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation, & Risk Management
Led by Dr. Robert Hirsch, U.S. Department of Energy (2005)
•
If a crash program to switch from oil to renewable energy begins:
– 0 years before Peak Oil: Leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for
more than two decades.
•
Severe economic disruptions.
– 10 years before Peak Oil: Helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall
for roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.
•
Moderate economic disruptions.
– 20 years before Peak Oil: Appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid
fuels shortfall for the forecast period.
•
•
Slight economic disruptions.
Hirsch: “The world has never confronted a problem like this, and the failure to act on a timely basis could
have debilitating impacts on the world economy. Risk minimization requires the implementation of
mitigation measures well prior to peaking.”
–
Source: http://www.projectcensored.org/newsflash/The_Hirsch_Report_Proj_Cens.pdf
Problem: Human Nature
• From a biological perspective:
– Humans are designed to maximize their own
reproductive output (“Darwinian Fitness”)
– And help family and close kin (“inclusive
fitness”)
– We’re not much inclined to help non-kin
strangers.
– Examples:
• “Tragedy of the Commons”
• “Free-rider problem”
Who would you save?
• There are 2 doors
• Behind the door on the right is your child,
who will die if you don’t open that door.
• Behind the door on the left is someone
else’s child, who will die if you don’t open
that door.
• You can only open one door.
• Which door do you open. Why?
When will people tend to cooperate with
others?
• …when dealing with genetic relatives
(Hamilton’s “inclusive fitness theory”).
• …when repeated interactions with non-relatives
offer reciprocal benefits (Triver’s “tit-for-tat
reciprocity” theory)
– And cheating (“temptation”) is reliably punished.
• …when dealing with non-relatives, when social
rules against cheating are usually enforced, and
the resource “pie” is growing (Ginits, et al.,
“generalized reciprocity” – e.g., “follow the rules,
even when no-one is watching”).
‘Hamilton’s Rule’.
– r = degree of genetic relatedness
– b = benefit (in reproductive terms), to
related individual
– c = cost (in reproductive terms) to altruist
– Altruism will occur when:
• c (cost to you) < (r) b (benefit to kin)
When will you be altruistic?
Answer: when cost to you < (r) x (benefit to kin)
• c < rb -- plug in some sample values…
• To your siblings (share ½ of your genes):
– When benefit to a sib is 2x cost to you:
1 < (.5) 2 -- cost to you < (r) benefit to sib -- e.g, c < rb
Only when it will cost you less than $1 to get your sib at least $2
• To ½ sibs, aunt/uncle, niece/nephew (r = .25)
1 < (.25) 4 When benefits to this kin member is 4x the cost to you.
Only when it will cost you less than $1 to get your nephew at least $4
• r = .125  8x benefit to other vs. cost to you
r = .062  16x benefit vs. cost to you
r = .031  32x benefit vs. cost to you
r = .015  64x benefit vs. cost to you
•
Sad bottom line: As r declines, altruism will exponentially decline…
Arab Adage
• Me against my brother.
• Me and my brother against my cousins
• Me, my brother, and my cousins against
the village
• Me, my brother, my cousins and my village
against the other village”
Game Theory:
Types of Social Interactions
You
Other
Person
Gain
Lose
Gain
Reciprocity/
Mutualism
Altruism
Lose
Selfishness
Spite
(inclusive fitness
theory)
Game Theory and Peak Oil
Everyone Else’s Oil Consumption
Your Oil
Consumption:
Reduce
Increase
Reduce
Reward,
Reward
Sucker,
Temptation
Increase
Temptation,
Sucker
Punishment,
Punishment
Payoffs: T > R > P > S
Problem: Cooperation is Far Less
Likely in a Negative Sum Game
• Generalized reciprocity works well when
the overall resource pie is growing (a
“positive sum game”).
– The costs of cooperating are low.
• But Peak Oil crisis is a “shrinking energy
pie” situation (a “negative sum game”).
• Peak oil requires the whole world to
cooperate as resources grow scarce. How
can that be achieved?
Peak Oil Bell Curve
Ascent and Decline Strategies
• Peak Oil Slope Ascent Strategies:
– Served us well on peak oil ascent:
• Free market capitalism, consumerism, globalism, un-taxed
energy use, no incentives for renewable energy use, short
term time horizon
• But now, it is dangerous if we cling to those “Ascent Values”
• Peak Oil Slope Decline Strategies:
– Requires new ways of thinking.
• Government: conservation and renewable energy incentives,
taxes on excessive energy use, RIMINI Protocol (shared
burdens)
• Businesses and Individuals: Localization (food,
manufacturing, etc.), energy conservation, use of renewable
energy.
Imagine…you are on Easter Island
• How do you convince
your tribe, and other
tribes, to create a
“sustainable timber
industry” on the
island?
• Instead of businesses
“plundering” the
planet, is “sustainable
capitalism” possible?
THE RIMINI PROTOCOL
http://www.peakoil.ie/protocol
• Kyoto Protocol deals with climate change.
• “Oil Depletion Protocol” (RIMINI Protocol) deals with
Peak Oil.
– “Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the
current World Depletion Rate.”
• That is, if World Depletion Rate is 3%, the U.S. (and all other
countries), must reduce it’s oil imports by 3% per year.
– That is: agreement for each nation to share the declining energy
burden proportionately.
• The stakes are very high -- if every nation follows these
guidelines, we may be able to avoid conflict and
resource wars over the remaining fossil energy supplies
as they grow ever more scarce and precious.
Conclusion
• Peak oil means a shrinking fossil fuel “energy pie,” and
higher oil costs, each and every year.
• Energy transition time window: We have a short window
of time to transition to renewable energy. We need to
start yesterday.
– We can hope for an energy techno-breakthrough (e.g., fusion), but we
better not count on it.
• World-wide cooperation vs. human nature
– Avoiding conflict and resource wars over shrinking resources will
require world-wide cooperation and conservation
– We need to see the threat as a common one that transcends
borders, cultures and religions.
– Are we smarter than yeast in the petri dish? Can we “transcend”
our human nature?
To download a copy of this
presentation, see:
• www.DrMillsLMU.com/PeakOil.htm
– Online in about a week.