APEC Seminar on
“Strengthening Public-Private Partnership to Reduce Food Losses in the Supply Chain”
5-8 August, 2013, Taipei
The Methodology
of
APEC Food Losses Assessment
Emily Ching-Cheng CHANG
Research Fellow
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
1
Outline
• Backgrounds
• Connection between FS and Food lose/waste
• Current Status
– By products/supply chain/level of development
• Methodology for APEC
• Preliminary Results
2
Background
PHL reduction matters because its absence will
–Reduce availability of food
–Reduce quality, safety, nutritional values
–Raise costs of production and distribution
–Lower sectoral value-added
3
Recent Trend of Food Price Index
As food prices continued to rise, the stakes got higher
So has the opportunity cost of post-harvest losses
Source: FAO, World Food Situation: FAO Food Price Index
4
High incidence of PHL toward food insecurity
Globally speaking,
food losses and waste:
– 1.3 billion ton/yr
– Over 1/3 – 1/2 of production
– Over USD 450 billion/yr
– By 2020, estimated to increase by 40%
5
PHL by region
(kg/ per person per year)
• Food Losses
– Europe and N America (180-190
kg)
– Industrialized Asia (160 kg)
– Southeast Asia (110-160 kg)
• Food Wastage
– Europe and N America (80-100
kg)
– Industrialized Asia (80 kg)
– Southeast Asia (5-10 kg)
6
Connection between PHL and Food Security/Safety
SOURCE: Opara, L. “Novel Postharvest Technologies for Food Security and Safety.”
http://www.globalsciencecollaboration.org/public/site/PDFS/food/Opara%20L.%20Novel%
20Postharvest%20Technologies%20for%20Food%20Security%20and%20Safety.pdf
“7
Research Needed
• Quantify extent and economic cost of PHL in
APEC region
• Calculate how much reduction of PHL would
be required to end hunger in APEC region
• Determine whether reducing PHL would
enable food security in APEC region
8
Extent of Food Losses and Waste
–By stages of supply chain
– By member economies
– By products
9
By Product & Stage
Source: Gustavsson et al .(2011), Global Food Losses and Food Waste: Extent Causes and
Prevention, FAO, Rome.
10
Methodology
• Commodity System
Analysis (CSA)
– CSA is widely use on
postharvest handling and
marketing of a given
commodity.
– CSA is made up of27
components that together
account for all the steps
associated with the
production
• Mass Flow Model (MFM)
– MFM is developed by the
Swedish Institute for Food
and Biotechnology (SIK)
– Using available food balance
sheet data
– Aimed to human
consumption
– Quantify physical mass
throughout the supply chain
using SIK own assumptions
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Commodity System Analysis (CSA)
• 26 components
• Each component is
potentially important
• But not always relevant for
all commodities
• Permits analysis of a whole
commodity systems
• Requires a multidisciplinary
team
• Data collection is costly
Source: La Gra et al.1990
Problem of CSA
• Losses for developing country records do not
exist
• Do not cover a long enough period of time
• Assessment are only estimated by several
observers
• Records may not truly represent a continuing
situation, for example :
1. losses may have been calculated only when
unusually high or low
2. loss figures may be deliberately over- or understated
in order to gain benefits or to avoid embarrassment
13
Mass Flow Model (MFM)
Source: Linpinski et al .(2013) Creating a Sustainable Food Future, Installment Two: Reducing Food Loss and Waste
14
FAO Food Balance Sheet
Mass Flow
Allocation Ratio
- To determines the part of food that is allocated for human consumption.
Food (Fresh)
(L)
Food
(K)
Food (Processed)
(M)
Allocation factors
wheat
maize
rice
Europe
35%
35%
35%
North America & Oceania.
50%
50%
50%
Industrialized Asia
60%
60%
60%
Sub-Saharan Africa
75%
75%
75%
North Africa, West & Central Asia.
60%
60%
60%
South & Southeast Asia
Latin America
67%
40%
67%
40%
67%
40%
Formulae for Food Losses and Waste Calculation
Losses & Waste along Supply Chain
Handling
& Storage
Production
LW1=A* (❶/ (1+❶))
LW2=A*❷
Processing
& Packaging
LW3=(L+H)*❸
Distribution
& Market
LW4=K*❹
Lw5= (L+H-LW3)*❺
Consumption
LW6=(K-LW4)*❻
LW7=(L+H-LW3-LW5)*❼
ID
Balance Sheet item
ID
Loss Ratios
A
Production
❶
Production
H
Processing
❷
Handling & Storage
K
Food (Fresh)
❸
Processing and Packaging
L
Food (Processed)
❹
Distribution (Fresh)
❺
Distribution (Processed)
❻
Consumption (Fresh)
❼
Consumption (Processed0
Loss Ratios
along the Food Supply Chain
North America & Oceania., Russia.
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Oilseeds & Pulses Fruit & Vegetables
Meat
Fish & Seafood
Milk
Production
2%
20%
12%
20%
3.50%
12%
3.50%
Handling and storage
2%
10%
0%
4%
1.00%
0.50%
0.50%
Processing and packaging
0.5%,10%
15%
5%
2%
5%
6%
1.20%
Distribution Retail Market
2%
7%
1%
12%
4%
9%
0.50%
27%
30%
4%
28%
11%
33%
15%
Consumption
Industrialized Asia
Production
2%
20%
6%
10%
2.90%
15.00%
3.50%
10%
7%
3%
8%
0.60%
2.00%
1%
Processing and packaging
0.5%,10%
15%
5%
2%
5%
6%
1.20%
Distribution Retail Market
2%
9%
1%
8%
6%
11%
0.50%
20%
10%
4%
15%
8%
8%
5%
Handling and storage
Consumption
South & Southeast Asia
Production
6%
6%
7%
15%
5.10%
8.20%
3.50%
Handling and storage
7%
19%
12%
9%
0.30%
6%
6%
Processing and packaging
3.50%
10%
8%
25%
5%
9%
2%
Distribution Retail Market
2%
11%
2%
10%
7%
15%
10%
Consumption
3%
3%
1%
7%
4%
2%
Source: Gustavsson et al .(2011), Global Food Losses and Food Waste: Extent Causes and Prevention, ANNEX 4, FAO, Rome.
1%
18
Preliminary Results
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Preliminary Results
Losses & Production Utilization
Loss %
Loss %
Waste
in
in
(mill ton) (mill ton)
(mill ton) Production Utilization
Wheat
34.9
292.3
236.2
11.9%
14.8%
Maize
46.8
567.7
548.0
8.3%
8.5%
Rice
39.8
256.6
242.4
15.5%
16.4%
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Preliminary Results-1
Per capita loss by weight (Kg)
• Wheat: 1~43 kg (15 kg avg per year)
• Maize: 1~66 kg (11 kg avg per year)
• Rice: 1~38 Kg (13 kg avg per year)
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Preliminary Results-2
Convert into per capita calorie
losses (Kcal) using FAO Food
Balance Sheet
• Wheat: 4~367 (112 kcal avg per year)
• Maize: 4~489 (80 kcal avg per year)
• Rice: 8~381 (131 kcal avg per year)
22
Preliminary Results-3
Convert into per capita monetary
losses (USD) using FAO producer
prices*1.5
• Wheat: 2~15 (6 USD avg per year)
• Maize: 1~14 (3 USD avg per year)
• Rice: 1~50 (l0 USD avg per year)
24 billion
13 billion
14 billion
23
Preliminary ResultsWheat
24
Preliminary ResultsMaize
Loss Ratio along FSC (Dom Utilization)- Maize
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
Consumption
10.00%
Distribution
Processing & Packing
5.00%
Handling & Storage
Production
0.00%
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Preliminary ResultsRice
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APEC Information Platform on
Post Harvest Loss and Waste System (PHLOWS)
Purpose
 Support C food security policy formulation
 Identify opportunities to improve value chains
 Monitor and evaluate loss reduction activities
Input Data
Calculator
Output (Losses)
(Food Balance
Sheet)
(Loss/Allocation/
by weight, calorie, $$$
Conversion Ratio)
(Table, Graph, Map)
Examined by Member Economy
APIP Website
27
APIP-PHLOWS Webpage
https://sites.google.com/site/apecharvestlost/
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Cover Page
Click
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Thank you &
Comment Welcome
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