Re-pricing through disruption in tacitly collusive oligopolies: making sense of abuse of collective dominance law Professor Nicolas Petit, University of Liege OECD Roundtable on Oligopoly Markets, 16 June 2015 Goals of the presentation Case for more ex post enforcement against tacit collusion Proposed theory of liability under abuse of colldom/shared monopolization Pros and cons Overview of enforcement in EU Member States (option) www.lcii.eu 1. The merger control blindspot The merger mostly paradigm Trigger defused in stable oligopolies The Coca-Cola/PepsiCo impossibility www.lcii.eu 2. Re-pricing through disruption Fictional example Beer duopoly, with symmetric players Collusive price of 10$/gallon; AVC of 5$/gallon Government introduces tax of 3$/gallon Four possible re-pricing options Real life illustrations Full transfer 13$/gallon Full internalization of tax 10$/gallon Partial internalization of tax 1013$/gallon Over internalization of tax 5-9$ per gallon Choice not entirely amenable to simple game theoretic framework Information, urgency and lack of readability of disruption www.lcii.eu In the 1960s, introduction of radial technology by Michelin in US tyre oligopoly In the 1980s, entry of low cost carriers on routes dominated by oligopoly airlines In 2011, entry of the company Free on the French mobile oligopoly Change brought by digital technologies and sharing economy business models? Proposed theory of liability Catch oligopoly practices adopted to restore collusive price equilibrium post disruption Creation of subtle communication conduits B makes public statements that it is studying with its analysts the effects of a “full transfer” of the tax on retailers; A posts its new price on its Facebook timeline. A is friend with retailer Z. Z shares A’s posts on its Facebook page. B is also friend with Z… A to take a minority shareholding in B, so as to be informed of B’s pricing strategy as an insider Change model, entry of 10 micro-brewers who eat 10% of the duopolists’ market share Selection of new price point, to maintain total profits on a 45% market share Attempted exclusion of micro-brewers will raise costs => necessity to re-price Collusive inducement of micro-brewers through threats and incentives www.lcii.eu Framework Any disruption imposes on oligopolists to re-price Oligopolists must avoid a facilitating practice caught by cartel law Space for abuse of collective dominance => adaptative oligopolist strategy to re-price through disruption, and elude its pro-competitive effect Core evidentiary components, proof of (i) a certain degree of existing collusion; (ii) disruption; (iii) re-pricing strategy; (iv) likely return to collusive equilibria Typical example is unilateral signaling, but not limited to this “Parallel exclusion” is possibility, though no priority? At any rate, should be restricted to disrupted contexts www.lcii.eu 3. Pros and cons Type I v Type 2 errors Disruption remains a necessary trigger… But rationalized approach, which keeps the theory reasonably predictable Kills “bogey man” of transposition of single firm conduct law in oligopoly markets Abuse v cartel law? Problem with cartel law approach is not one of desirability, but of feasibility + “problem of proof” (Mezzanote, 2009) Yet another “bogey man”: ex post proof of tacit collusion is possible + documentary evidence; resilient idea Our approach focuses less on tacit collusion, and at any rate does not make it unlawful => possibility to apply a “preponderance of the evidence” standard of proof to tacit collusion Rationalized v open-ended abuse of collective dominance? “Sports leagues” disease www.lcii.eu 4. Overview of enforcement in EU countries Follow up of 2011 study with N. Neyrinck E-competitions database 9 relevant decisions Merger cases Several German cases related to use of structural presumption of CollDom Abuse of dominance cases No genuine cases of tacit collusion Spain, wholesale telephone sort messaging case, 2012: individually dominant positions of each telco operator on termination market France, GIE Exploitation des carrières, 2012: price-fixing case, with selling boycott treated as abuse of collective dominance Not enough to draw conclusions www.lcii.eu Conclusion Rationalized, market-triggered, case-law proof and predictable abuse of collective dominance theory of liability For more, see (2012), ‘The Oligopoly Problem in EU Competition Law’, Research Handbook in European Competition Law, I. Liannos and D. Geradin eds., Edward Elgar, September 2013 www.lcii.eu Follow me on twitter @CompetitionProf Papers available @ http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm ?per_id=358753 Liege Competition and Innovation Institute (LCII) University of Liege (ULg) Quartier Agora | Place des Orateurs, 1, Bât. B 33, 4000 Liege, BELGIUM