AIACC LA 26:
Component
SOCIAL VULNERABILITY,
CLIMATIC CHANGE AND
FLOODS
Dra. Claudia E. Natenzon, Lic. Silvia González, Lic. Elvira
Gentile, Lic. Diego Ríos y Srta. Cecilia Boudín
PIRNA – FFyL – UBA
Social Vulnerability in Relation to:
1. Identification of people (number of) that can
be affected in a direct way (located between
the sea leavel and 5 metres).
2. Elaboration of a social vulnerability index
(SVI) for the area in study.
3. Analysis of land use and inventory of
goods/infrastructure that could be affected
directly.
4. Case studies: La Boca/ Avellaneda and Gral.
Lavalle.
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
1. Number of
people living
in the area of
possible
affectation:
AMBA Sector.
Source: INDEC
Political-administrative
Units
Inhabitants
(CNP 1991)
1. Tigre
142.500
2. San Miguel
6.146
3. Hurlingham
2.850
4. Tres de Febrero
25.235
5. San Martín
46.824
6. San Fernando
95.151
7. San Isidro
30.553
8. Vicente López
8.967
9. Capital Federal
343.199
10. La Matanza
43.843
11. Ezeiza
3.348
12. Esteban Echeverría
Remainder units:
18.Ensenada,19.Berisso,
20.Magdalena, 21.Punta Indio,
22.Chascomús, 23.Castelli,
24.Tordillo, 25.Gral. Lavalle y
26.La Costa
20.003
13. Lomas de Zamora
176.889
14. Lanús
159.845
15. Avellaneda
274.121
16. Quilmas
68.146
17. Berazategui
22.171
TOTAL of AMBA
1.469.791
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
2. Social Vulnerability Index
• Statistical evaluation for a preliminary
identification of administrative units with a
conjunction of indicative features that allow
us to characterize high social vulnerability
situations.
• The selection of indicators is a result of the
relationship between the representativeness
of basic social, demographic and economic
aspects, and the availability,free of charge of
the data.
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
The indicators have been clustered into
sub-indexes:
a. demographic indicators
b. conditions of life indicators
c. work/ production/ consumption
indicators
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
a. Demographic Indicators :
• Total population
• Population's density
• Index of potential dependence:
the young
• Index of potential dependence:
the elderly
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
a. Demographic Indicators :
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
a. Demographic Indicators :
Administrative units
of the area in study
Total
population
Population
density
(inhab/km2)
Index of potential
dependence: the
young
Index of potential
dependence: the
eldery
DEMOGRAPHIC
SUB -INDEX
Avellaneda
3
4
1
3
11
Berazategui
3
2
4
1
10
Capital Federal
5
4
1
5
15
Esteban Echeverria
3
2
5
1
11
General San Martin
3
4
1
3
11
General Sarmiento
4
3
5
1
13
La Matanza
4
3
3
1
11
La Plata
4
2
1
3
10
Lanus
3
4
1
3
11
Moron
4
3
1
3
11
Tres de Febrero
3
4
1
3
11
Vicente Lopez
3
4
1
4
12
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
b. Conditions of Life Indicators:
• Population’s % in homes with unsatisfied
basic needs (NBI).
• % of homes with boss woman
• Total rate of infantile mortality
• Population’s % without access to health
services
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
b. Condition of Life Indicators:
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
b. Conditions of Life Indicators:
Administrative units of
the area in study
Population in
NBI homes (%)
Woman boss
homes (%)
Infantile Mortality
Rate
Population without
health service (%)
LIFE CONDITIONS
SUB-INDEX
Avellaneda
3
4
3
2
12
Berazategui
4
2
3
4
13
Berisso
4
4
3
2
13
Castelli
3
4
5
2
14
Ensenada
4
3
3
2
12
Esteban Echeverria
5
1
3
4
13
General San Martin
3
4
3
3
13
General Sarmiento
5
1
4
4
14
La Matanza
4
2
3
4
13
La Plata
3
5
3
1
12
Lanus
3
4
3
3
13
Lomas de Zamora
4
3
3
3
13
Quilmes
4
3
3
3
13
San Fernando
5
4
3
4
16
Tigre
5
2
3
4
14
Tres de Febrero
2
4
3
3
12
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
c. Work, Production, Consumption Indicators:
• Unemployment Rate
• “Valor agregado bruto total”
• Total of registred cars rate
• % of salaried of 14 years or more,
without previsional taxes.
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
c. Work, Production, consumption:
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
c. Work, production, consumption indicators:
Total registred
cars rate
WORK/
PRODUCTION/
CONSUMPTION
SUB -INDEX
Unenployment
rate
Total production
brute value ($)
Salaried (14 y.
&+) without
previsional
Berazategui
5
3
2
4
14
Berisso
5
5
1
3
14
Ensenada
5
5
1
3
14
Esteban Echeverria
4
3
4
4
15
General Sarmiento
5
3
4
4
16
La Costa
3
5
5
4
17
La Matanza
5
2
3
4
14
Quilmes
5
3
2
3
13
San Fernando
4
3
3
3
13
Tigre
4
3
4
3
14
Administrative units
of the area in study
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
3. Soil Uses, Goods and Infrastructure Exposed
Soil Uses
Category
Urban / Residential Area
* Public Office
* Helth Center
* Residential
* Social Security
* Education
Area of Security
* Segurity (Military, police, etc.)
Industrial Area
* Industrial Park
* Isolated Industry
Recreation Area
* Sport
* Outdoor activity
Green Space
* Squares and parks
Port Area
* Ports
Traffic and Transport
* Route and main access * Train
* Busses (comunal)
* Airport
Services
* Electricity
* Telephon
* Water
* Gas
Agricultural Area
* Agriculture
* Cattle raising
* Cultural Activity
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects
4. Case studies
Issues under consideration:
a. Current situation (“normal”) of social
vulnerability
b. Social vulnerability in disasters
c. Proposal of strategies to diminish the
vulnerability, and to mitigate the impacts
d. Real conditions to carry out that proposal
(a, b, c, comparison = range of capacities to
cope the disaster cycle consequence of
climatic change)
AIACC LA26: Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio de la Plata. Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects