Weather & Climate
Dr. Dave DuBois
NM State Climatologist
http://weather.nmsu.edu
Presented to PHYS110 students, April 22, 2010
Precipitation from Radar
What is Climate?
• Climate is the average, expected value for a
specific time (of day, year, etc.)
• Weather is what actually happens
• Climate is defined over long periods, typically
more than 20 to 30 years time spans
• Climate is not just about temperature
• Climate change is not just about global warming
Predicting Weather
• What is the current weather?
– Observations of weather at surface and aloft
• Does the current weather fit a pattern?
– Fair weather ridge, stormy trough, monsoon, etc.
• First guess from experience and education
• Consult forecast models
– Global to regional to sub-regional
• Compare with statistics from the past
– Look at both models and observations
• Refine forecast
• Repeat every few hours
AWIPS workstation
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
• Basic physical laws converted into a series of
mathematical equations
– Physical laws of motion (e.g. Newton’s 2nd law)
– Conservation of energy (e.g. 1st law thermo)
• Basic prediction
– If we know initial condition of the atmosphere, we
can solve the equations to obtain new values of
variables at a later time
Basic Weather Prediction Model
• A model in its simplest form
Parameterization
• Simplify calculations to put into
model
• Example: cloud optical depth
(how much solar radiation
penetrates clouds)
NCEP Supercomputing
• IBM Power6 p575
– 69.7 Teraflops Linpack
• #36 Top 500 Nov 2008
– 156 Power6 32-way
Nodes
– 4,992 processors @
4.7GHz
– 19,712 gigabytes
memory
– 170 terabytes of disk
space
– 100 terabyte tape
archive
Slide adapted from a talk by Ben Kyger, Director, NCEP Central Operations
Still Forecasts miss Storms
•
•
•
•
•
Hail storm in Boulder, Colorado
Lasted 20 minutes, 1-km wide path
2 inches deep of hail, stripped leaves off trees
Before storm T=81F, after storm T=39F
NWS issued large hail warning only after
seeing the radar as it was falling and reports
from weather spotters
Schlatter et al., (2008) Monthy Weather Review
Demonstration
http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/geog390_wxbrief.html
http://web.nmsu.edu/~dwdubois/weather.html
Tipping Bucket Rain Gage
Funnels precipitation into a
bucket mechanism that tips
when filled to a calibrated
level. A magnet attached to
the tipping mechanism
actuates a switch as the
bucket tips. The momentary
switch closure is counted by
pulse counting circuitry.
NM Climate Center weather station at Leyendecker Farm
Inside tipping bucket
Temperature/Humidity Sensor
Combined temperature and relative humidity probe
With cover off
4” Diameter Rain Gage
The rain gauge is composed of three parts: a funnel, a
measuring tube, and a 4-inch diameter overflow tube,
and a mounting bracket. The funnel directs the
precipitation into the measuring tube and magnifies it
by a factor of 10. This allows observers to report rainfall
to the nearest 0.01" (one hundredth of an inch). The
measuring tube, when full, will hold "one inch" of
rainfall. When it rains more than one inch, the excess
water collects in the overflow tube.
This is rain and snow data is collected for this:
http://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=nm
Physics 110G
Climate
Satellite Based Near Surface Temperature
TOC
19
In the bulk troposphere, March 2011 was the 14th coolest in the past
33 years
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://en.
wikipedia
.org/wiki/
File:Gree
nhouse_E
ffect.svg
20
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
CO2 Graph Sources:
Temperature Graph
Sources: 2001-1958: South
Pole Air Flask Data
1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome,
Antarctica
1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor
Dome, Antarctica
2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok
Ice Core Data
Temperature Graph
Sources:
2000-1979: Satellite
stratospheric data
1979-1871: S. Hemisphere
ground temp. data
1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice
Core Data
21
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
CO2 Graph Sources:
Temperature Graph
Sources: 2001-1958: South
Pole Air Flask Data
1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome,
Antarctica
1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor
Dome, Antarctica
2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok
Ice Core Data
Temperature Graph
Sources:
2000-1979: Satellite
stratospheric data
1979-1871: S. Hemisphere
ground temp. data
1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice
Core Data
22
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
CO2 Graph Sources:
Temperature Graph
Sources: 2001-1958: South
Pole Air Flask Data
1958-1220 B.P.: Law Dome,
Antarctica
1220 B.P.- 2302 B.P.: Taylor
Dome, Antarctica
2302 B.P.- 414k B.P.: Vostok
Ice Core Data
Temperature Graph
Sources:
2000-1979: Satellite
stratospheric data
1979-1871: S. Hemisphere
ground temp. data
1871- 422k B.P.: Vostok Ice
Core Data
23
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://w
ww.dura
ngobill.c
om/Swin
dle_Swin
dle.html
24
The Historical Temperature Data vs. Carbon
Dioxide & Methane
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://sol
arcenter.sta
nford.edu
/sun-onearth/60
0pxTempsunspotco2.svg.p
ng
25
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://ar
xiv.org/f
tp/arxiv/
papers/
1003/10
03.6045.
pdf
26
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_global_
warming_theory
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://en
.wikipedi
a.org/wik
i/Greenh
ouse_gas
27
I searched and did not find an equivalent graph of non-athropogenic changes.
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
28
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://en.
wikipedia.
org/wiki/
Curve_fitt
ing
29
Polynomial curves fitting points generated with
a sine function.
Red line is a first degree polynomial, green line
is second degree, orange line is third degree
and blue is fourth degree
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
30
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://w
ww.atmos
phere.mp
g.de/enid
/Nr_7_M
arch_2__
6_Climate
_modelin
g/C__Ho
w_climat
e_models
_work_5i
y.html
31
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://w
ww.atmos
phere.mp
g.de/enid
/Nr_7_M
arch_2__
6_Climate
_modelin
g/C__Ho
w_climat
e_models
_work_5i
y.html
32
Physics 110G
Climate
TOC
http://w
ww.atmos
phere.mp
g.de/enid
/Nr_7_M
arch_2__
6_Climate
_modelin
g/C__Ho
w_climat
e_models
_work_5i
y.html
33
10. The development of climate models over the last 25 years
showing how the different components are first developed
separately and later coupled into comprehensive climate
models. © IPCC TAR 2001 Technical summary, Box 3, Fig 1