Probabilistic NAS Platform
George Hunter, Diego Escala
Sensis Corporation
January 27, 2010
The information in this document is proprietary to, and the property of Sensis Corporation. It may not
be duplicated, used, or disclosed in whole or in part for any purpose without express written consent.
Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
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Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
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Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page
PNP Design Overview and
Philosophy
Requirements
• NextGen performance and benefits assessment
 Incorporate key aspects of NAS from the ground up
– Uncertainty, weather
• Design environment, including real-time evaluation
• 1 hour run time (nominally), easy to use
Design
• Don’t try to solve every problem
 NAS has significant dynamic range
• Select modeling fidelity: 15 minute/sector discretization
Strategic: TFM, DAC, FP, etc.
Tactical: CDR, etc.
Implicit /
nodal modeling
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Spatially: ~10s nmi
Temporally: 15 min
Explicit modeling
PNP Design Overview and
Philosophy
Decouple simulation and decision making
Build a little – test a little
• Continuous improvement
• Expandable architecture
Emphasis on testing, validation and process
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Capabilities Summary
 Real-time
 Fast-time
 Airport weather impact models
 Airspace weather impact models
 Weather-integrated decision making
 Probabilistic modeling / decision making
 Traffic flow management
 Dynamic airspace configuration
Existing Can Support
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 Surface traffic modeling
 Terminal area modeling
 Super density operations
 Fuel burn modeling
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 Emissions modeling
 Trajectory-based operations
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 Separation assurance
 Plug-n-play
 Fast run-time
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Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
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Probabilistic Modeling
Example uncertainties
• System capacity and loading forecasts
• Airports and sectors
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Forecasted Airport Capacity
Illustration of our approach
Step 1
TAF
Forecasts for
Ceiling, Visibility
and Wind Speed
Forecasts:
Ceiling
Step 2
Visibility
Mean and Sigma
for Ceiling,
Visibility and Wind
Speed
Wind Speed
Mean and sigma:
Ceiling
Step 3
Visibility
Wind Speed
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Distributions for
Ceiling, Visibility
and Wind Speed
Forecasted Airport Capacity
Illustration of our approach
Step 1
TAF
Forecasts for
Ceiling, Visibility
and Wind Speed
Forecasts:
Ceiling
Step 2
Visibility
Mean and Sigma
for Ceiling,
Visibility and Wind
Speed
Wind Speed
Mean and sigma:
Ceiling
Step 3
Visibility
Wind Speed
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Distributions for
Ceiling, Visibility
and Wind Speed
Forecasted Airport Capacity
Step 4
Model
Step 5
VFR
VFR Cap Dist
Step 6
IFR
Arrivals / hour
IFR Cap Dist
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Forecasted Airport Capacity
Step 7
Airport capacity distribution that takes into
account ceiling, visibility and wind speed
forecasts
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Outline
PNP design overview and philosophy
Probabilistic modeling (George)
PNP software architecture (Diego)
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PNP Software Overview
Client-server architecture
Predictive modeling
Two runtime modes
• Fast-time (simulation)
• Real-time (live)
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Fast-time Mode
Local Network
Static NAS Data
Client 1
Client 2
Client n
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PNP
Archived Wx/Tx
Data
Live (Real-time) Mode
Local Network
Internet
Static NAS Data
Client 1
Client 2
Client n
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PNP
Wx/Tx
Data Server
PNP Architecture
Graphical User Interface
Plan View Display
Flight Data
Probabilistic
NAS Platform
(PNP)
MATLAB®
Scripting
Interface
Weather Data
NAS Simulation
Reports
NAS
Database
Performance Data
Network
Java Client
Client
As Middleware
External Client
(Any Language)
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Decision making
MATLAB® Client
PNP Architecture
Graphical User Interface
Plan View Display
Flight Data
MATLAB®
Scripting
Interface
Probabilistic
NAS Platform
(PNP)
Weather Data
NAS Simulation
Reports
NAS
Database
Performance Data
Network
Decision making
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PNP Communications Basics
Subscription model
• Clients can specify which messages they need, and at what
interval they need each
Serialized Java objects sent over TCP/IP
Compression supported
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PNP Communications Cycle
Advance
simulation
time
Wait for
client
responses
Send
messages
for interval
Send
heartbeat
to clients
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Client-Server Communications
Step 1:
Register
with PNP
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Step 2:
Request
Data
Updates
Step 3:
Handle
Data
Updates
Registering with PNP
public MyPnpClient()
{
// Connect to the PNP server on the local computer.
// buildReceiveRequests() specifies message subscriptions
m_Client = new ObjectClientMessageManager(“localhost”,
buildReceiveRequests());
}
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Subscribing to Messages
private ArrayList<MessageReceiveRequest> buildReceiveRequests()
{
ArrayList<MessageReceiveRequest> requests = new
ArrayList<MessageReceiveRequests>();
// Add a request to receive PnpFlightDetails every 15 minutes
requests.add(new MessageReceiveRequest(PnpFlightDetails.class, 15));
// Add a request to receive AirportLoading every 15 minutes
requests.add(new MessageReceiveRequest(AirportConditions.class, 15));
// Add a request to receive SectorLoading every 15 minutes
requests.add(new MessageReceiveRequest(TerminalConditions.class, 15));
return requests;
}
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Responding to PNP
[AOC Example]
BatchResponse response = new
BatchResponse(1,
aoc.getDelayMap(),
aoc.getRerouteMap(),
aoc.getInflightRerouteMap());
m_Client.send(response);
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Data Translation
NAS Data
• Wx radar
• Winds/temps
• METAR/TAF
• Turbulence
• Icing
• Flight plans
• Flight positions
• Sector def’ns
• Airport capacities
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Client-usable data
• Wx-degraded
sector capacities
• Sector capacity
forecasts
• Sector loading
• Sector loading
forecasts
• Airport capacity
distribution based
on wx
• Airport conditions
• Flight trajectories
Data Translation
NAS Data
• Wx radar
• Winds/temps
• METAR/TAF
• Turbulence
• Icing
• Flight plans
• Flight positions
• Sector def’ns
• Airport capacities
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Client-usable data
• Wx-degraded
sector capacities
• Sector capacity
forecasts
• Sector loading
• Sector loading
forecasts
• Airport capacity
distribution based
on wx
• Airport conditions
• Flight trajectories
Data Available from PNP Server
Flight Data
• Flight Trajectory (1min)
• Current Position
• Sector Schedule
Airspace Data
• Sector Boundaries
• Sector Congestion
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NAS Data
• Airport Congestion
• Airport Loading
• Operations per
airport
Weather Data
• Forecasts
• Weather-related
Congestion
Programmable Client Functionality
Flight Plan Amendments
• Delay flights
• Reroute flights
 While at gate or in-flight
Airspace Modification / Definition
• Number of sectors
• Sector boundaries
• Sector capacities
• Airport capacities
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Uncertainty Modeling Process in ProbTFM
PNP
Send sector loading
for a/c enroute
Send expected
sector loading for
a/c at gate
Send wx-degraded
sector capacities
Send airport
capacity
distributions
Send departures for
current interval
ProbTFM
Compute sector capacity
distributions
Compute congestion
costs for current
departures based on
sector loading, capacity
Compute delays and
reroutes for flights that
exceed congestion
threshold
PNP
Implement reroutes and delays
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Send delays to PNP
Publications
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George Hunter, "Meta Simulation Results for Simultaneous Dynamic Resectorization and Traffic Flow Management," AIAA Digital Avionics Systems
Conference (DASC), Orlando, FL, October, 2009.
George Hunter, Robert A. Vivona, Carlos Garcia-Avello, "Preliminary Evaluation of Trajectory Prediction Impact on Decision Support Automation,"
AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Orlando, FL, October, 2009.
Huina Gao, George Hunter, "Future NAS-Wide User Gaming Preliminary Investigation," AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC),
Orlando, FL, October, 2009.
George Hunter, "Testing and Validation of NextGen Simulators," AIAA Modeling and Simulation Conference, Chicago, IL, August 2009.
George Hunter, "Preliminary Assessment of Interactions Between Traffic Flow Management and Dynamic Airspace Configuration Capabilities," AIAA
Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), St. Paul, MN, October, 2008.
George Hunter, et. al., "Toward an Economic Model to Incentivize Voluntary Optimization of NAS Traffic Flow," AIAA ATIO Conference,
Anchorage, AK, September, 2008.
George Hunter, "Sensitivity of the National Airspace System Performance to Weather Forecast Accuracy," Integrated Communications, Navigation
and Surveillance Conference (ICNS), Herndon, VA, May, 2008.
George Hunter, Kris Ramamoorthy, "Integration of terminal area probabilistic meteorological forecasts in NAS-wide traffic flow management decision
making," 13th Conference on Aviation, Range and Aerospace Meteorology, New Orleans, LA, January, 2008.
Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "The Integration of Meteorological Data in Air Traffic Management: Requirements and Sensitivities," 46th AIAA
Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, Reno, NV, January, 2008.
George Hunter, Ben Boisvert, Kris Ramamoorthy, "Advanced Traffic Flow Management Experiments for National Airspace Performance
Improvement," 2007 Winter Simulation Conference, Washington, DC, December, 2007.
Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "Evaluation of National Airspace System Performance Improvement With Four Dimensional Trajectories," AIAA
Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Dallas, TX, October, 2007.
Kris Ramamoorthy, Ben Boisvert, George Hunter, "Sensitivity of Advanced Traffic Flow Management to Different Weather Scenarios," Integrated
Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Conference (ICNS), Herndon, VA, May, 2007.
George Hunter, Ben Boisvert, Kris Ramamoorthy, "Use of automated aviation weather forecasts in future NAS," The 87th American Meteorological
Society Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX, January, 2007.
Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "Probabilistic Traffic Flow Management in the Presence of Inclement Weather and Other System Uncertainties,"
INFORMS Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, November, 2006.
Kris Ramamoorthy, Ben Boisvert, George Hunter, "A Real-Time Probabilistic TFM Evaluation Tool," AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference
(DASC), Portland, OR, October, 2006.
George Hunter, Kris Ramamoorthy, Alexander Klein "Modeling and Performance of NAS in Inclement Weather," AIAA Aviation Technology,
Integration and Operations (ATIO) Forum, Wichita, KS, September 2006.
Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "A Trajectory-Based Probabilistic TFM Evaluation Tool and Experiment," Integrated Communications,
Navigation and Surveillance Conference (ICNS), Baltimore, MD, May, 2006.
Kris Ramamoorthy, George Hunter, "Avionics and National Airspace Architecture Strategies for Future Demand Scenarios in Inclement Weather,"
AIAA Digital Avionics Systems Conference (DASC), Crystal City, VA, October, 2005.
George Hunter, Kris Ramamoorthy, Joe Post, "Evaluation of the Future National Airspace System in Heavy Weather," AIAA Aviation Technology,
Integration and Operations (ATIO) Forum, Arlington, VA, September 2005.
James D. Phillips, “An Accurate and Flexible Trajectory Analysis,” World Aviation Congress (SAE Paper 975599), Anaheim, CA, October 13-16,
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Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page
Questions?
Thank You
George Hunter
Diego Escala
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Sensis Corporation Proprietary Data – See title page