Microeconomics Corso E John Hey Notation • Intertemporal choice. • Two periods: 1 and 2. • Notation: • m1 and m2: incomes in the two periods. • c1 and c2: consumption in the two periods. • r: the rate of interest. • 10% r = 0.1, 20% r = 0.2. • Hence the rate of return = (1+r) The Budget Line • c1(1+r) + c2 = m2 + m1(1+r). • In the space (c1 ,c2) a line with slope -(1+r). • The intercept on the horizontal axis = m1 + m2/(1+r) ... the present value of the income stream (note that m2 is discounted at the rate r). • The intercept on the vertical axis = m1(1+r) + m2 ... the future value of the income stream. Preferences? • If I offer you a choice between 10 CDs today and 10 CDs in a year, which do you prefer? • 10 CDs today and 11 CDs in a year? • 10 CDs today and 13 CDs in a year? • 10 CDs today and 16 CDs in a year? • 10 CDs today and 20 CDs in a year? • 10 CDs today and 25 CDs in a year? • Implications? Individuals discount future … • … and the discount rate varies from individual to individual. The Discounted Utility Model • Consumption c gives utility u(c) and the utility of a bundle (c1,c2) is given by: • U(c1,c2)=u(c1) + u(c2)/(1+ρ) where ρ is the discount rate of the individual. • u(c2)/(1+ρ) is the discounted value of the income of period 2 discounted at the rate ρ – which is individual-dependent. • (Recall that m2/(1+r) is the discounted value of the income of the second period... ... Discounted at the rate of interest r.) The Discounted Utility Model • U(c1,c2) = u(c1) + u(c2)/(1+ρ) • • • • There are two components: The utility function of the individual: u(c) The individual’s discount factor: ρ Usually u(c) is concave in the space (c,u(c)) (Why?) • Usually ρ > 0 (Why?) Indifference curves in the space (c1,c2) • • • • An indifference curve is given by: Utility = constant …. … U(c1,c2) = constant … … u(c1) + u(c2)/(1+ρ) = constant • Note the difference U(c1,c2), the utility of the basket (c1,c2), and u(c), the utility of consumption c. Indifference curves in the space (c1,c2) • u(c1) + u(c2)/(1+ρ) = constant • If u(c) is linear, we have • c1 + c2/(1+ρ) = constant • Hence c2 = constant - c1 (1+ρ) • A line with slope (1+ρ). An example: u(c) = √c and ρ = 0 • U(c1, c2) = u(c1) + u(c2) = √c1 + √c2 • The indifference curve through the point (9,9) is given by: √c1 + √c2 = 6 • Other points on this curve are: • (0,36), (1,25), (4,16), (16,4), (25,1), (36,0) • Note that at every point √c1 + √c2 = 6 • The equation is : c2 = (6 - √c1)2 • See the next graph …. The indifference curves • If u(c) is concave the indifference curves are convex. • If u(c) is linear the indifference curves are linear. • If u(c) is convex the indifference curves are concave. • The slope along the equal consumption line are –(1+ρ) The Discounted Utility Model • If u(.) is concave (linear, convex), the indifference curves in the space (c1,c2) convex (linear, concave). • The slope of every indifference curve on the equal consumption line in (c1,c2) space is equal to -(1+ ρ). • There is a proof in the text. • Let’s go to Maple … Past Exam Questions • • In the next two questions you will be asked to consider an individual, taking intertemporal decisions and having Discounted Utility preferences and utility function u(x) = x^0.5 (that is, the utility of x is the square root of x). Suppose the individual is faced with a choice of two intertemporal streams of consumption P and Q. Such a stream is denoted by (c1,c2) where c1 is the consumption in period 1 and c2 the consumption in period 2. His discount factor is specified below. The consumption streams are: P = (16,9) Q = (25,4). The individual's discount factor is 0. Question 10: Does the individual prefer stream P or stream Q? • • • • P The individual is indifferent We cannot tell from the information given Q • Question 11: Suppose the individual could have the same consumption c in both periods. What would c have to be to make him indifferent to stream P? • • • • 3.50 12.25 29.00 25.00 • Summary • The budget line has slope = -(1+r) • The indifference curves given by the Discounted Utility Model along the equal consumption line have slope = -(1+ρ) Chapter 21 • Goodbye!