Can Huang School of Management, Zhejiang University Hangzhou, P.R. China September 26th, 2013 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Motivation Hypotheses Data Empirical strategy Results Discussion and conclusion 2 In many industries firms use secrecy or lead time rather than patent as appropriation methods (Levin et al. 1987, Brookings Pap Eco Ac; Arundel and Kabla, 1998, Res Policy) Firms that patented innovations are expected to earn almost 50% more on average than if they had not patented those innovations (Arora et al., 2008, Int J Ind Organ) This value increment is defined as patent premium 3 It seems to be paradoxical that despite the weak IPR protection and possibly low patent premium in China, patenting activities there have surged in the last ten years. 600,000 USPTO 400,000 EPO 300,000 JPO 200,000 SIPO (China) 100,000 KIPO 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 0 1995 Patent Applications 500,000 Number of Annual Invention 4 80% Food Tobacco 70% Textiles Wearing apparel 60% Leather products Wood products 50% Paper products Publishing and printing 40% Petroleum products Chemicals 30% Rubber and plastics products Other non-metallic mineral products 20% Basic metals Fabricated metal products Machinery except electrical 10% Electrical machinery Medical, precision and optical instruments 0% Transport equipment furniture and manufacturing not elsewhere classfied 5 Struggler Strategist Global Degree of geographical differentiation of the firm’s IP policy Singaler Speculator Local Pessimistic Optimistic Expectation about the future appropriation regime Source: Keupp, Marcus Matthias; Friesike, Sascha and von Zedtwitz, Maximilian, 2012. How do foreign firms patent in emerging economies with weak appropriability regimes? Archetypes and motives, Research Policy, 41, 8, 1422-1439. 6 H1a: Multinational Corporations (MNCs) in countries with weak IPR protection obtains positive patent premium. H1b: Local firms in countries with weak IPR protection obtains positive patent premium. We define patent premium as the higher total factor productivity (TFP) a patenting firm can achieve than had it not patented. 7 Resource-based view: patents as unique resources to build up competitive advantage (Amit and Shoemaker, 1993, Strateg Manage J) Patent premium are not only determined by the value of the underlying innovations, but also by the extent to which the patents can render competitive advantages ◦ Complex and discrete product technology ◦ Product lifecycle 8 Rival firms’ patents may negatively impact productivity of the focal firm (competition effect) Rival firms’ preemptive or defensive patenting activities might stimulate the focal firm’s own patenting activities which lead to its productivity gain (stimulation effect) Effect of competition on patent premium is theoretically ambiguous H2a: The patent premium of MNCs in countries with weak IPR protection increases with the intensity of competition. H2b: The patent premium of local firms in countries with weak IPR protection increases with the intensity of competition. 9 Annual Survey of Industrial Enterprises, National Bureau of Statistics of China ◦ Coverage:1999-2007; all state-owned firms and non-state-owned firms with more than RMB five million in revenue ◦ E.g. 146,251and 336,732 manufacturing firms in the dataset for the years 1999 and 2007, respectively ◦ 50 firm-level statistical indicators, including input, output, R&D expenditure, capital composition, employment, geographical location, the four-digit industry in which a firm operates, ownership status, and assets and liabilities. China Patent Abstract Database, State Intellectual Property Office (SIPO) of China ◦ Coverage: Over four million patent applications submitted to SIPO during the period of 1985–2009 ◦ Information includes patent application and publication number, application and publication date, patent number, title, international patent classification (IPC) class, abstract, claims, legal status 10 Nine students assist manually matching firms in in the precision instruments and office machinery industry (a intensive patenting industry) Each firm was searched independently by two students Discrepancy is further analyzed in the second round search to achieve the high accuracy Dataset for this study: 3,244 firms in the industry; 947 patenting firms (677 domestic and 270 foreign); 2297 non-patenting firms (1,401 domestic and 896 foreign) We plan to match the whole two databases using algorithms which are developed against the humanmatched results 11 Calculation of TFP ◦ Olley and Pakes (1996, Econometrica)’s estimator ◦ Levinsohn and Petrin (2003, Rev Econ Stud)’s estimator as robustness check ◦ Here I present the result based on fixed-effects estimator (1) tfpit yit bl lit bk kit bm mit Estimation of Patent premium ◦ Rescale the time periods that all the firms started patenting at the year t=0. t=-1 is the pre-patenting year prior to the year t=0. ◦ Dummy Patenti =1 if a firm i applied for patents in 1999-2007 and 0 otherwise. ◦ Patent premium is the below equation (average treatment effect for the treated) (2) E{tfpit1 tfpit0 | Patenti 1} E{tfpit1 | Patenti 1} E{tfpit0 | Patenti 1} where the superscript equals to 1 if the firm i applied for patent and 0 otherwise. ◦ The key is to estimate the unobservable counterfactual or the tfp of a patenting firm had it not applied for patents tfpit0 | Patenti 1 12 Two assumptions ◦ All differences between a focal patenting firm and the control non-patenting firms can be captured by a vector of covariates (unconfoundedness) ◦ The firms with the same value of covariates have a positive probability of being both patenting and non-patenting firms (overlap/common support) Use the nearest-neighbor matching estimator developed by Abadie and Imbens (2002, NBER) to find a group of control firms that are as close as possible to the focal patenting firm in terms of their pre-patenting characteristics Covariates: tfpi,-1 , firm size (li,-1 ), ownership status (state i,-1, collective i,-1, private i,1, HKMT i,-1 and foreign i,-1), year and four-digit industry dummies. Use the weighted average tfp of these control firms to estimate the counterfactual tfpit0 | Patenti 1 Use the estimator of propensity score matching (Rosenbaum and Rubin, 1983, Biometrika) as robustness check. The result is not materially different. 13 Calculate the Herfindahl index for each of the 24 four-digit industries every year Average the index for each industry Rank the averages Rank Four-digit industry 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 4111 4130 4142 4112 4119 4113 4128 4141 4122 4114 4123 4190 4115 4154 4153 4129 4155 4126 4121 4159 4125 4152 4151 4124 Average Herfindahl index 0.022 0.022 0.024 0.041 0.042 0.050 0.058 0.058 0.071 0.093 0.102 0.130 0.134 0.138 0.139 0.139 0.157 0.158 0.175 0.276 0.383 0.513 0.531 0.733 Competition Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak Weak 14 t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 General domestic .060*** (.017) .11*** (.027) .075*** (.029) .066** (.036) .19*** (.055) .21*** (.060) .26*** (.081) .25 (.20) N0 treated 384 287 206 127 95 63 33 10 N0 controls 4827 3424 2355 1448 944 600 249 66 General foreign .012 (.024) .028 (.028) .0072 (.034) .083 (.049) .016 (.058) .045 (.062) -.040 (.074) .16 (.12) N0 treated 163 134 105 70 55 39 29 11 N0 controls 3749 2860 2123 1330 965 658 380 146 15 t 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 .056*** (.020) .12*** (.029) .10*** (.032) .067* (.042) .24*** (.063) .18*** (.052) .18*** (.066) .034 (.095) N0 treated 323 242 169 100 77 50 27 9 N0 controls 4179 2979 2055 1269 828 531 238 63 Domestic, weak competition -.020 (.047) .035 (.072) -.017 (.064) .084 (.074) .11 (.077) .26 (.19) N/A1 N/A1 N0 treated 60 42 33 23 18 12 7 2 Domestic, strong competition N0 controls 648 445 300 179 116 69 11 16 Foreign, strong competition N0 treated .043* (.025) 131 .031 (.028) 112 .030 (.035) 88 .046 (.040) 60 .093* (.048) 47 .11* (.059) 33 .024 (.074) 23 .16 (.13) 10 N0 controls 2888 2223 1679 1161 844 576 328 142 Foreign, weak competition N0 treated -.13* (.066) 32 .048 (.093) 22 -.077 (.10) 17 .29 (.22) 8 -.34 (.23) 8 -.30 (.21) 6 -.28 (.19) 6 N0 controls 861 580 444 169 89 50 52 N/A1 1 45 Note: 1. We do not report the matching results when the overlap (common support) assumption is not satisfied. 16 The patenting domestic firms in the Chinese precision instrument and office machinery industry achieved higher TFP than had they not patented in the period of 1999-2007. The patent premium lasted till the sixth year after a domestic firm filed the first patent The domestic firms which faced strong competition attained patent premium The foreign firms and the domestic firms which faced weak competition did not obtain patent premium 17 18 Prevent other firms from making, using or selling the patented products or technologies Build up patent portfolios to prevent others from suing the firms for infringement Use patents as bargaining chips to reach crosslicensing agreements to cut through patent thickets Enhance prospects for attracting investors, being acquired or issuing initial public offerings Obtain tax reduction from local governments (e.g. in Shanghai, China) 19