UNIVERSITY OF YORK Department of Social Policy and Social Work ECONOMIC AID (Ndihme Ekonomike – NE) IN ALBANIA: REPORT FOR UNICEF Jonathan Bradshaw and Petra Hoelscher SUMMARY Albania is not making enough effort on behalf of her children. Ndihme Ekonomike (NE) is the only help that parents get with the costs of child rearing. Albania spends 0.4 per cent of GDP on NE. A very small proportion of children in poverty benefit from NE. NE is too low to lift any child out of poverty by itself. NE is very complicated. It cannot be reformed successfully. Albania needs to introduce a child benefit and spend more of its national income on children. BACKGROUND The UNICEF office in Albania was asked by the government of Albania to contribute to a review of the Economic Aid (NE) programme in Albania from a children’s perspective. This note is based on the outcomes of a mission of Professor Jonathan Bradshaw, University of York, UK and Dr Petra Hoelscher, UNICEF Regional Office for CEE/CIS to UNICEF Albania 8-11 February 2010. During our visit we met with the Deputy Minister of Labour and Social Affairs and other senior officials in the MoLSA, local experts, UNDP, UNIFEM, the European Commission and the World Bank. The UNICEF country office has already produced a report on The Impact of Social Assistance Mechanisms on Reducing Child Poverty in Albania, which included a survey of 400 recipients of NE. We also draw on information coming from government strategy papers, reviews of the current economic aid system, World Bank assessments of poverty and public expenditure as well as the EU progress report and an EU assessment of poverty and social inclusion in Albania. This paper also contributes to work the UNICEF Regional Office for CEE/CIS is doing on child poverty and social protection in the context of the financial crisis. So far this work includes a questionnaire sent to UNICEF local offices about the impact of the crisis and policy responses to it; a comparative analysis of minimum income schemes in each country; a comparative analysis of child poverty in six countries; some think pieces; and two case studies of strategies to reduce child poverty (Russia and Slovenia). All this work is being brought together for a conference in September 2010. The social protection system in Albania covers employment-related contributory social security and non-contributory social assistance. Within social assistance there is a mix of cash transfers (economic aid, disability benefits and electricity subsidy) and social services (mainly psychosocial support in day care and residential care). Economic Aid (NE) is the only cash transfer targeted to poor people and mainly reaching families with children. NE 1 was first developed in 1993 in a hurried response to the collapse of the state system. It was basically a device to protect the country against famine. It was unusual in a number of respects. On the advice of a Norwegian consultant (Professor Jon Ivan Kolberg) resources were distributed to local areas – communes and municipalities were given the responsibility to administer the scheme. This is basically a Nordic solution where social assistance is a residual benefit for the small number of people not entitled to the universal and contributory social insurance schemes. In Albania it served the purpose of providing quickly a protection against extreme poverty and social disruption. Social insurance for pensioners, maternity and unemployment was reformed around the same time but only reaches those in the formal economy. Since then NE has been incrementally changed but no broader reforms have been undertaken to provide effective social protection to families with children. OUTLINE OF REPORT We were advised by the Deputy Minister that at this stage our most useful contribution would be to produce a vision paper with some options for reform. We agree. The NE scheme has been the subject of extensive study over the years by the World Bank (2006, 2007) and including their latest poverty assessments (2009), a European Commission Report on Social Protection and Social Inclusion in Albania (2008), a detailed study by Kolpeja et al. (2006) and the recent Public Policy Institute study report for UNICEF (2009). Although there is no doubt that reform could be helped by a better evidence base (and we refer to some of the missing evidence below), we believe that there is enough to initiate an argument about reform. Albania is a potential candidate country for EU entry. In its European Partnership agreement there was a commitment to “Improve social protection systems and combat social exclusion” and in its social inclusion and social protection report in 2008 report on Albania in 2008 it concluded "The extension of the social protection system with family and child benefits, as part of the social assistance or social insurance system is put forward as a recommendation. Further research should present the government with number of alternatives, taking into account the effects on family poverty, the effects on income inequalities, on gender issues and on access of children in education." p179. This report is a contribution to that end. The focus of our interest is in child poverty. NE is certainly not the most important determinant of the living standards of children in Albania – as ever what parents receive in the labour market is much more critical. But NE is the only part of the Albanian welfare state that directly contributes to child poverty reduction. So in the next section we set out the arguments about why it is failing. We then set out the advantages and disadvantages of a set of alternative models that Albania might pursue. WHAT IS WRONG First and fundamentally Albania is not making enough effort on behalf of its children. 2 Child outcomes in Albania continue to be poor. In a review of child well-being across the CEE/CIS region only Moldova and Tajikistan performed worse than Albania. Albania ranked in the bottom third of the index in health, housing, personal and social well-being and risk and safety, placing it well below other countries in the Western Balkans (UNICEF 2009). A UNICEF Albania study of 400 households receiving NE highlighted inadequate housing conditions of families with children, a high level of health problems among children with many parents having to borrow money for medical care for their children, financial barriers to school attendance (textbooks, transport) and lack of access to kindergartens. Child poverty rates are very high. The World Bank employs two poverty thresholds in Albania. Extreme poverty is about $1 a day per capita and absolute poverty - $ 50 a month or about $1.50 per capita. Based on LSMS analysis absolute poverty fell from 25.4 per cent in 2002 to 11.4 percent in 2008 and extreme poverty from 4.7 per cent in 2002 to 1.2 per cent in in 2008 (World Bank April 2009). The World Bank does not produce child poverty rates in their LSMS assessment (an analysis of the same data with the child as the unit of analysis). Such an analysis would be possible if the LSMS data was made available and has been undertaken by UNICEF for six countries in the region (see Bradshaw and Chzhen 2009). There is an estimate in the PPI/UNICEF study (2009) that 185,000 children were living in households with consumption less than $1.5 per day in 2008. But this absolute poverty threshold is far too low and frankly misleading for a country that has experience such rapid economic growth and where the minimum wage is now more than $5 per day. At the regional level the World Bank has adopted thresholds of extreme poverty at $ 2.50 PPP a day and poverty at $ 5 PPP a day, the logic being that in countries with cold climates poverty lines have to reflect both basic food and non-food needs. The international extreme poverty line therefore is roughly set as twice the food poverty line. We recommend that a child poverty analysis of LSMS should be undertaken using a variety of poverty thresholds and deprivation indicators. Administrative data suggests that 149,000 families (24 per cent of the population) received some social assistance in 2008 and 15 per cent received full social assistance. 92 per cent of recipients of social assistance have children under 19 and 280,000 children are estimated to be living in families whose main source of income is social assistance. As we shall see social assistance payments are well below the absolute poverty threshold of $1.50 per day per capita. Level of social expenditure on social protection for families with children is far too low. In 2009 the budget allocation to social protection was 7.7 per cent of GDP (according to the EU 2009 progress report). But NE is only a small part of that expenditure. The European Commission (2008) estimated social protection expenditure in 2005 at 6.7 per cent of GDP, down from 7.1 per cent of GDP in 2000, with 4.8 per cent of GDP going to pensioners, while spending on NE (the only spending on children) amounts to only 0.4 per cent of GDP. Latest data on the 2010 budget from the Ministry of Finance suggests that social assistance spending has remained at this level1. As a comparison, average spending on families with children in the OECD is 2.3 per cent of GDP (OECD Family Data Base 2009). Absolute levels of spending have fluctuated over time –5.0 billion Lek in 2002, 3.97 billion in 2004 and 5 billion Lek in 2008. Meanwhile expenditure on benefits for the disabled has increased to 11 billion Lek in 2008 (information from MoLSA). Children have been losing ground during a period of very rapid economic growth (40 per cent in the last four years) they have not been sharing in the benefits and the Albanian state has been reducing its commitment to them. The number of NE recipients have declined from 155,000 in 1993 and 120,000 in 2005 to 93,000 1 http://www.minfin.gov.al/index.php?option=content&task=view&id=902&Itemid=65 3 in 2008. The maximum benefit is currently 7000 Lek, only 500 Lek more than it was in 1998 – benefit levels have neither kept pace with price inflation nor with earnings. Albania’s economy is highly informal with a wide cash economy and a very low tax base. In the non-agricultural sector, according to LSMS data, more than half of the workforce is informally employed, while most family farms are subsistence-oriented. Remittances have played a great role in improving living standards of families over the past decade with remittances reaching a share of 12% of GDP. More recently though a decline in remittances is observed, reflecting long-term migrants reducing or no longer sending money to their families. Some migrants start new families abroad and abandon their wives and children in Albania. The global economic crisis affects many of the receiving countries of Albanian migrants and is reducing job opportunities and incomes of migrant labourers. The poverty reduction gains from remittances may not be sustainable. Informality and migration are closely linked to non-functional formal labour markets and social protection systems. It is nearly impossible adequately to assess families’ eligibility for economic aid based on incomes, consumption or documentation provided by families. Support to families with children then becomes dependent on discretionary assessments by local politicians and administrators rather than an enforceable right of citizens. While this may contribute to high levels of social cohesion in communities, it also leaves the system open to political interests, corruption and discrimination against individuals. Second as a result the level of NE payments are inadequate. The average NE payment was 2805 Lek per month in 2008. The average full payment was 3315 Lek per month. The maximum payment was 7000 Lek per month and if a couple with two children received the approved scales they would get 4600 Lek per month. The World Bank extreme poverty threshold for that family would be 12,400 Lek per month. Any family with children receiving only NE would starve. Yet families with children are surviving, so they cannot just be dependent on economic aid. However, there are very elaborate regulations designed to exclude from entitlement those with incomes from other sources. There are no disregards of income and very small disregards of land and other assets. The NE still merely makes a difference between survival and subsistence. No one with income from full-time work will be entitled to help from the state. Those employed on the minimum wage are excluded from income tax but after paying 7.9 per cent social security contributions would have a net income of 15,657 Lek which is less than $1.50 per day per capita for a family with two children. The replacement rate for this family on NE is only 29 per cent. Even if for some reason the family received the maximum payment of 7000 Lek it would only be 45 per cent (Kolpeja says that it was 69 per cent of the minimum wage in 2004). This is extraordinarily low in comparative terms. In EU countries replacement rates vary but hover around 70 per cent for the net incomes of families with children on the minimum wage. Compared with pensions the NE benefit levels are very low. In 2008 the minimum pension for a single pensioner in urban areas was 9515 Lek per month and in rural areas 5200 Lek per month. This compares with a maximum NE of 7000 Lek or 4600 Lek for a couple with two children if they receive the standard amount. The only evidence we have on families with children receiving NE is the survey of 400 families interviewed for the PPI/UNICEF study (2009). 80 per cent said they were entirely 4 dependent on NE (though for reasons given above we doubt this can be the case). Some indications of hardship were None of the sample could spend anything on leisure for children 85 per cent could not spend anything on children’s clothes 74 per cent could not spend on children’s books 8.5 per cent of children were not registered Housing conditions were very poor – 26 per cent lacked access to drinking water and 58 per cent lacked access to sewage facilities 26 per cent of families lacked eight or more assets 8 per cent of children (2.5 times the average) did not attend compulsory education. 26 per cent of children had health problems and most had difficulties paying for health charges. 66 per cent of children at school could not participate fully in school activities 31 per cent of children had to work according to report of recipients. NE payments are inadequate to live on. They are not an effective minimum income guarantee for families with no other resources. There is an unspoken expectation that families in receipt will have other resources – other resources that according to the rules they are not allowed. But the rules cannot be applied honestly because if they were then no one would receive NE –they would not survive. Who can blame recipients supplementing their NE with other hidden resources? Accepting these implicit contradictions allows policy makers to demonstrate they have a cash transfer system in place while keeping expenditure low. From time to time anxiety breaks out that some families in real need are being excluded. So the rules are altered to include them. There is a general belief that there is no more money and that the only way the system can be improved is by better targeting. How? Narrower targeting becomes impossible if it is inevitable and expected that families will and must have other hidden resources. Third the NE scheme has problems in practice. The scheme is almost completely funded by a block grant from central government. It is not exactly clear what determines the overall allocation or its distribution between communes. Communes make bids on the basis of their eligible rolls. There is a poverty sensitive local needs formula which influences the distribution. There are also some suggestions that political consideration enter into it – the strength of the case made by local to central politicians. Suffice it to say that the amount allocated to communes has declined and Kolpeja report that 15-20 per cent of applicants nationally do not get NE due to insufficient funds. Many other families may not receive the full scales of benefit recommended because of shortage of funds. The budget is limited, demand exceeds supply and NE is not an enforceable right. Most social assistance schemes in the EU do provide a right to minimum protection. There are serious problems with targeting. The World Bank estimates this using an analysis of the consumption quintile distribution of the benefit. In 2002 only 41 per cent of benefits were received by the lowest quintile and only 26 per cent of the lowest quintile received any benefit. Ethnic minorities such as RAE may not be able to receive benefits because they lack civil registration or cannot provide the necessary documentation. The amount of benefit represented only 13 per cent of the consumption of the lowest quintile (illustrating again how much more they are receiving from other sources). Kolpeja (2006) says that the proportion of 5 social assistance going to the lowest quintile in Albania is low compared with for example 85 per cent in Romania and 83 per cent in Bulgaria. This suggests that not much of child poverty can be reduced by NE (such estimates could be made using secondary analysis of LSMS). Typical child poverty reduction achieved by transfers to families in the EU is over 50 per cent. While the resources for NE are provided by central government the distribution is in the hands of local and commune government. Given the eligibility criteria and the guideline scales there is considerable local discretion in who receives benefit and how much they receive. Indeed this discretion is operationalised by local communes and councils themselves. Social administrators draw up lists of eligible households and submit these to the council who can and do change the decisions. In comparative perspective this is a most unusual degree of lay discretion. Even in the Nordic countries where social assistance is administered by commune based social workers with considerable degrees of discretion, it is officer discretion (within strict guidelines) rather than commune discretion. Some commentators argue that this is a real asset of the Albanian system. The arguments go: that ‘local knows best’; this is local democracy at work – a contribution to a democratic mentality; real devolved government. Indeed central government is reluctant to interfere because it would look like an assault on the principles of devolved administration. However it is unusual (probably unique) for decisions about entitlement for social assistance to be made by local politicians (though they can and do act as an appeal tribunal in some countries). There are obvious dangers of prejudice, arbitrariness, clientelism and corruption, especially in a system where it is possible to appeal to the Prefect only once, and that judgement can be overruled without an appeals mechanism. Also the practice of publishing lists of recipients is concerning as in many other countries this would constitute a breach of privacy and data protection laws. It increases the risk of stigmatisation of beneficiaries and therefore becomes a deterrent to claiming benefits. NE is administered by 1300 staff costing 7.9% of the overall costs of the scheme. Social administrators come from a variety of backgrounds. With the process of decentralisation of social services responsibilities of NE administrators may include the identification of vulnerable families in need of psychosocial support. However, administration of benefits and provision of social work demand different kind of qualifications. In most countries in Europe with appreciable numbers of social assistance recipients, child protection is a social work service independent of the administration of social assistance. Also, social work and cash transfers target different groups of the population: while a majority of people in need of social work are poor, the vast majority of poor people are not in need of social work. Much of the need for social work (through child abuse and neglect, family violence, non participation in school, behavioural problems) could be addressed with effective anti poverty policies. A simplification of eligibility criteria for NE could reduce the number of administrators and free up staff for genuine social work. The current development of Child Protection Units is an excellent opportunity to build up and strengthen capacities in social work. OPTIONS FOR REFORM 1. Further iterative reform of NE. No doubt in the short term this will take place and the aspiration that drives it will be that the scheme can improve in adequacy without spending more money by targeting better. UNIFEM have a number of sensible proposals for changes in the definition of the head of the 6 household that need to be implemented. The scheme probably overestimates the value of home production in rural areas and there are therefore too many partial aid decisions there. There is an aspiration among some people to introduce conditionalities to NE – in order to pursue health, educational and employment objectives. The World Bank is advocating conditional cash transfers (CCTs) and has a mission coming to Albania with this as a brief. We have argued elsewhere (Hoelscher 2009) that imposing additional conditions in social assistance schemes is likely to damage the interests of children. In countries with generally high access to basic services, problems are usually on the supply side of services rather than on the demand side – inaccessibility of services, low quality, informal payments and discrimination are barriers for poor people to take up services. The costs of monitoring conditions usually falls on those that are already poor. Finally, there is no evidence internationally that Conditional Cash Transfers are more effective than non-conditional transfers in improving take up of services. In fact being an additional threshold to the receipt of benefits, they are likely to exclude more people who need them. In thinking about reform it needs to be recognised that the NE scheme is basically a support for children – 92 percent of households receiving NE have children. If as we believe the primary objective of the scheme is to reduce child poverty and support families with children in the important national task of child rearing, then it does not take a very elaborate meanstest and highly discretionary system to provide financial support for children. No EU country uses this mechanism. All of them employ a child benefit package - a combination of cash benefits, tax benefits, housing benefits, and free or heavily subsidised services. All of them spend a great deal more as a proportion of GDP than Albania does at the moment – on average about five times more. 2. An adequate social assistance scheme The key problem with NE is that it is too low. Because it is too low a blind eye is turned to “abuses”. There is no other way for families to survive. So, one option would be to pay adequate benefits that lifted families with children out of poverty and then to enforce sanctions on abuses. In most European social assistance schemes abuses would be prosecuted. Such a scheme would probably need to include a range of disregards that do not exist at the moment. To encourage family solidarity gifts from relatives could be disregarded in whole or part as well as some part-time earnings, agricultural production and some level of assets. Such a scheme would need to become less discretionary than the present one. It would cost more and we are not confident that it will be feasible with the present level of informality in the economy. 3. Child benefits Most advanced countries contribute to the financial costs of families raising children with a cash benefit paid in respect of children. In almost all the EU countries this includes a non means-tested cash benefit. In some countries this takes the form of a tax allowance or credit which has the same effect. In developing countries there are few examples but in South Africa there is a Child Support Grant paid for all children under 18 and though it is income tested, in that context it only excludes the rich. Argentina has recently extended its child 7 benefit scheme to include people outside the formal labour market. Some of the advantages of child benefits of this type are that they are Easy to administer – paid on the basis of birth registration. They are generally payments to the primary care giver, usually mothers, and are spent on children. They are a secure source of income on which it is possible to build - by employment, home production, activity in the informal economy. There is no disincentive to work, family support and remittances. They support children regardless of family crises, disruptions, desertion, and divorce. They can (and do) vary by birth order, family type, the number and ages of children and by geography and in other ways that increase their impact on poverty The obvious question is can Albania afford such a scheme? Ironically one of the advantages of the low level of NE is that it is not impossible to match its benefits even with a universal benefit at reasonable cost. We have made estimate for six options. These need a good deal more work and it would be extremely useful to be able to get access to the LSMS and model their impact on child poverty. Option 1 is a universal child benefit paid at 10 per cent of the minimum wage. This would match the standard full NE payment for a three child family and above. It would exceed the average NE payment for a two child family. It is still less than $1 per day per person and in our view not adequate but it would be a start – something to build on. It would increase expenditure on children three fold. Option 2 is a universal child benefit paid at 20 per cent of the minimum wage. This would match the standard NE payment for a two child family and match the average payment for a one child family. This is still not a generous benefit - still less than $1 per day per capita. It would involve a six fold increase in expenditure over NE but only to about the average expenditure on social protection for families with children in the EU countries. Again it would be something to build on. There are a range of more selective strategies that might be considered. Option 3 pays 20 per cent of minimum income to the first child and 10 per cent for the second and subsequent child. Option 4 pays 20 per cent for the second and subsequent child on the grounds that large families have a greater risk of poverty Option 5 uses geographical targeting to pay 20 per cent of the minimum wage per child to children living in the areas with the largest concentration of children in poverty (38 per cent). Children outside those areas receive 10 per cent. Option 6 pays 20 percent for a child 0-5 on the grounds that mothers in families with a preschool child are less likely to be able to work. 8 Child benefit options % minimum Family with wage per child one child per Lek per month Full HE Option 1 Option 2 Option 3* Option 4* Family Family with with two three children children Lek per Lek per month month 4600 5300 3400 5100 6800 10200 5100 6800 3400 6800 72% children living in other communes 3900 1700 3400 3400 38% children living in poorest communes Option 5 3400 1700 Child aged<5 Child 6-18 Option 6** 3400 1700 *assumes 40% of families are one child families **assumes 250,000 children under 5 Cost per year Billion Lek assuming 800,000 children 5.0 16.3 32.6 23.8 19.5 % GDP 24.1 1.9 22.4 1.8 0.4 1.2 2.4 1.9 1.6 If we had access to the LSMS we could estimate the cost of these options with greater accuracy and also model the extent to which they would reduce poverty rates, poverty gaps as well as what impact they would have on replacement rates. We would expect the payments to have a positive impact on incentives to work and to work more. There would be administrative savings compared to NE. Recommendations A comprehensive reform of cash transfer systems takes time. A two-thronged approach should in the short term address some of the problems with NE that are obvious and fairly easy to change, including administering payments to the main caregiver rather than the head of household and introducing disregards of certain incomes, while at the same time move towards the introduction of child benefits. Any reform of NE should be based on an open analysis of barriers in the existing system and potential impacts of reform options. To this end LSMS data should be made accessible to allow more detailed modelling and costing of different reform options and their impacts on child poverty. Preference should be given to non-conditional over conditional cash transfers, taking into account that there is no evidence that the introduction of CCTs in countries with high uptake of services is effective in building human capital. On the contrary they may divert attention from problems in quality and accessibility of health, education and employment services and shift responsibility solely to beneficiaries. The reform of NE should be integral part of the broader set of policies needed to support poor families with children, including access to decent jobs, access to childcare and quality social 9 work as well as improving the accessibility of health care and education, including through addressing informal payments. References Bradshaw J. and Y. Chzhen (2009): Child poverty in six CEE/CIS countries. UNICEF CEE/CIS Working Paper. European Commission (2008): Social inclusion and social protection in Albania. Brussels: European Commission. European Commission (2009): Albania 2009 Progress Report. Brussels: European Commission. Hoelscher, P. (2009): Conditional Cash Transfers – What‘s at stake for CEE/CIS? UNICEF CEE/CIS Discussion Note. Kolpeja, V., M. Ekonomi, F. Mema, S. Kusi. (2006) Measuring Child Poverty and Social Exclusion. Tirana. Public Policy Institute (2009): The impact of social assistance mechanisms on reducing child poverty in Albania. Tirana: UNICEF Republic of Albania (2007): Strategy for Social Inclusion. World Bank (2006): Albania: Restructuring public expenditure to sustain growth. A public expenditure and institutional review. Washington: World Bank. World Bank (2007): Albania: Urban growth, migration and poverty. A poverty assessment. Washington: World Bank. World Bank, Instat and UNDP (2009): Albania: Trends in poverty. 2002 – 2005 - 2008 10