Colorado: “A Battleground
for Presidential Politics”
Progressive 15
Northeast Colorado
September 17, 2008
Floyd Ciruli
Ciruli Associates
Ciruli Associates
Convention – Good for Colorado
38 Million Watch
• Hickenlooper/Denver are winners
• State Democrats exposure
• Reinforces state is battleground
Democratic National Convention “Good for Colorado”
100%
78%
76%
80%
55%
60%
40%
25%
10%
20%
15%
0%
Good for State
Democrats
Bad for State
Unaffiliated
Republicans
Ciruli Associates, N550 voters, August 6, 2008
Question:
Do you believe that holding the Democratic National Convention in Denver the third
(fourth) week of August will be good for the State of Colorado or bad for the state?
1
Ciruli Associates 2008
McCain vs. Obama
Bounce Meets Bounce
Democrats Have Good Convention
Republicans Gain Momentum
• Friday morning bounce, Gallup
8 points
• Party unity
• Economic focus/plan offered
• Frame choice: Bush/McCain vs.
Obama/Biden
• Palin effect – 37 million
watch
• National security focus
• Character, independence,
reform
• Now ahead in polls
2
Ciruli Associates 2008
The Race to the Finish
The Debates
Poll
Sept. 26: 1st presidential debate, Oxford, MI
Oct. 2: Vice presidential debate, St. Louis, MO
Oct. 7: 2nd presidential debate, Nashville, TN
Oct. 15: 3rd presidential debate, Hempstead, NY
Nov. 4: Election Day
Obama
McCain
Date
(D)
(R)
Spread
RCP Average
9/5-9/15
45.3
46.1
McCain +0.8
Gallup Tracking
Rasmussen Tracking
Fox News
Gallup Tracking
NBC/WSJ
ABC/Washington Post
CBS News
Gallup Tracking
Rasmussen Tracking
Gallup Tracking
CNN
USA Today/Gallup
9/13-9/15
9/13-9/15
9/8-9/9
9/7-9/9
9/6-9/8
9/5-9/7
9/1-9/3
9/1-9/3
8/28-8/30
8/27-8/29
8/23-8/24
8/21-8/23
46
47
42
43
46
47
42
49
47
49
47
48
47
48
45
48
45
49
42
42
43
41
47
45
McCain
McCain
McCain
McCain
Obama
McCain
Tie
Obama
Obama
Obama
Tie
Obama
+1
+1
+3
+5
+1
+2
+7
+4
+8
+3
Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008
3
Ciruli Associates 2008
Age of Anxiety
State’s Mood Turns Down
• 47% said right direction, 63% in Sept. 2007
• African-American – 63% right direction
Younger Voters Upbeat, Older Worried
100%
80%
65%
60%
39%
40%
45%
25%
20%
0%
18-34 Years Old
65 Years Old and Older
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Ciruli Associates, N500, July 2008
Question:
Overall, would you say things are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel
things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track here in Colorado?
4
Ciruli Associates 2008
Colorado Remains on Battleground List
• Obama leads most of June and July
• Then lead exchanges in late July and
August
• In first September polls race remains
close
“We’re talking presidential gridlock here,”
Floyd Ciruli, Rocky Mountain News, 9-13-08
Colorado: McCain vs. Obama
Poll
Date
Sample
Obama
(D)
McCain
(R)
Spread
RCP Average
9/11-9/14
--
47.3
46.7 Obama +0.6
Fox/Rasmussen
Fox/Rasmussen
CNN/Time
Quinnipiac
Denver Post
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4
9/14-9/14
9/7-9/7
8/24-8/26
8/15-8/21
8/13-8/15
8/11-8/13
500 LV
500 LV
670 RV
1060 RV
400 LV
500 RV
46
49
46
46
46
41
48
46
47
47
43
44
5
McCain
Obama
McCain
McCain
Obama
McCain
+3
+3
+1
+1
+3
+3
Ciruli Associates 2008
Colorado Politics Shifts to Blue
• Gary Hart: Manifesto: Democrats and the West, Fall 2006
• Fred Barnes: The Colorado Model, Weekly Standard, 7/21/08
• Ryan Lizza: The Code of the West, New Yorker, 8/22/08

Colorado economic downturn shifts agenda to left and away
from social issues. Economy changes to high tech and
service.

Rapid growth of new voters in suburbs, exurbs and I-70
corridor split tickets, register more independent (1,023
Republicans, 1,021 Unaffiliated, 945 Democrats)

Colorado Republicans divided on fiscal and social issues. Face
tough primaries.

Growth of Democratic bench and support infrastructure
(money, think tanks, blogs). Candidates position in the
middle.

National Republican fortunes decline
6
Ciruli Associates 2008
The Code of the West
One Theory of Colorado Electorate
• Core conservatives and liberals don’t shift
• Government pragmatists pro-choice and want solutions
• Moral pragmatists like limits, but minimum conflict
Moral
Pragmatist,
14%
Moral
Conservative,
13%
Government
Pragmatist,
37%
Fox News
Conservative,
16%
Very Liberal,
20%
Gary Hart
“We are now at the
cusp...of the end of
the Nixon-ReaganBush era. Obama is
poised, if he is bold
enough, to be a
transformational
president...”
New Yorker, Ryan Lizza, July 10, 2008
7
Ciruli Associates 2008
U.S. Senate Race
“The real test for Democrats will
be if they pick up a senate seat,”
Floyd Ciruli
Colorado Senate
Poll
Date
Sample
Udall
(D)
Schaffer
(R)
Spread
RCP Average
8/5-8/24
--
45.0
38.0 Udall +7
Suffolk
Denver Post
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4
Rasmussen
PPP (D)
Quinnipiac
8/21-8/24
8/13-8/15
8/11-8/13
8/13-8/13
8/5-8/7
7/14-7/22
450 LV
400 LV
500 RV
500 LV
933 LV
1425 LV
39
47
44
50
47
44
31
37
38
42
41
44
Udall
Udall
Udall
Udall
Udall
Tie
+8
+10
+6
+8
+6
Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008
8
Ciruli Associates 2008
Public Opinion Shifts on Energy Supply
Pew Poll Shows Americans Shifting Toward Traditional Sources
Questions
Feb. 2008
More exploration/mining/drilling
and power plants
vs.
More conservation/regulation
June 2008
Change
35%
47%
+12%
55
45
-10%
Develop new energy sources
vs.
Protect the environment
54
60
+6%
36
34
-2%
Favor drilling in ANWR
42
50
+8%
Ciruli Associates reformatted Pew Poll 2008
“We are a completely committed recreational state and by and large,
we recreate with gas. We load up the SUV and go to the mountains,”
Floyd Ciruli, pollster, MSNBC Tom Curry, 8-2-08
9
Ciruli Associates 2008
In Colorado, Offshore Drilling
Attracts the Independent Voter
• On July 24, gas prices become top issue, and
Obama and McCain tied (33% each) on who
has best program to solve energy crisis now
• Republicans finally find an issue with some
traction; McCain up by 2, Senate race tied
Offshore Drilling in Protected Areas
Support
Oppose
Don’t know/NA
Total
Rep.
Dem.
Ind.
59%
37
4
82%
15
3
34%
60
5
57%
40
4
Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008
“We had begun to think there was a very significant Democratic
advantage, but ($4-per-gallon gasoline) shows us how quickly an issue
can energize and change the dynamics of a race,” Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Rocky
Mountain News, 7-25-08
Question:
To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you
support or oppose drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas offshore?
10
Ciruli Associates 2008
But Colorado Voters Still Like Renewables
• Obama says energy compromise is necessary, Washington Post, 8-3,08
• Udall energy plan includes offshore drilling, Rocky Mountain News, 8-14-08
• Salazar pushes offshore drilling, Denver Post, 8-22-08
Majority of Public Wants Balanced Approach
Renewable energy
Drilling
Nuclear power
High mileage cars
Strategic Reserve
Don’t know/NA
54%
21
9
5
4
7
Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008
Question:
Which is the best way to help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on
foreign oil – A) building new nuclear power plants, B) drilling offshore and in Alaska, C)
developing renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels, D)
releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or E) mandating higher mileage
standards for cars?
11
Ciruli Associates 2008
Increase State Severance Tax
• 41% support/37% oppose/22% don’t know
Amendment 58
60%
“I think its success will,
indeed, give him
bragging rights and
momentum. If it loses, I
think he will be
weakened by the loss,”
Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Grand
Junction Sentinel, 8-2-08
49%
49%
44%
40%
34%
31%
27%
22%
21%
24%
20%
0%
Republican
Unaffiliated
Support
Oppose
Democrat
Don't know
Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008
Question:
Increase the state severance tax $321 million dollars annually by removing the local
property tax exemption. The increased tax funding would go to college scholarships,
wildlife programs, alternative energy research, and local transportation and water
projects.
12
Ciruli Associates 2008
School Fund, Suspend TABOR Spending
Rules, Eliminate Amendment 23
• 48% support/32% oppose/19% don’t know
Amendment 59
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
59%
51%
37%
37%
26%
17%
23%
21% 20%
0%
Republican
Unaffiliated
Support
Oppose
Democrat
Don't know
Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008
Question:
Create a fund for preschool to 12th grade education from revenue that the State of
Colorado would have refunded to taxpayers by permanently suspending the TABOR
amendment rules related to limited government spending. Eliminate the requirement that
statewide per-pupil funding grow at least the rate of inflation and create a savings account
for education.
13
Ciruli Associates 2008
Increase the Number of Signatures
for Constitutional Amendment
• 35% support/29% oppose/36% don’t know
Referendum O
60%
38%
38%
40%
32%
38%
41%
37%
29%
24%
23%
20%
0%
Republican
Unaffiliated
Support
Oppose
Democrat
Don't know
Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008
Question:
Increase the number of signatures required to place a constitutional measure on the ballot
and require signatures on constitutional measure to be gathered from each of the state’s
congressional districts. It reduces the number of signatures to place a state statute on
the ballot and restricts any changes by the state legislature for five years.
14
Ciruli Associates 2008
Labor Peace Ends
Will There be any Winners?
Business/Government
• Amendment 47: Right to work – Private
• Amendment 49: Prohibit paycheck deduction – Public
• Amendment 54: Prohibit sole-source contributions – Public
Labor
•
•
•
•
Amendment 53:
Amendment 55:
Amendment 56:
Amendment 57:
Criminal liability – Private
Just cause – Private
Health insurance – Private
Safe workplace – Private
15
Ciruli Associates 2008
Water, the Third Rail of Colorado Politics
•
92% of voters believe a “dependable supply of water”
very important to strong economy.
•
Referendum A loses. Carries no county, but started
ahead.
•
In a telephone interview with the Pueblo Chieftain
“...the water compact that Colorado and other upper
basin states have with California and a region should be
renegotiated,” U.S. Senator John McCain said, 8-152008
•
Senator Salazar, “...only happen over my dead body.”
•
“My recent remarks may have been mistakenly
construed...Let me be clear that I do not advocate
renegotiations of the compact.” 8-20-08
Divisions among water stakeholders keep Colorado in policy gridlock.
Is Colorado vulnerable because it does not claim its Colorado River
entitlement?
16
Ciruli Associates 2008
Impact on Colorado

Record turnout

Aggressive and expensive campaigns

Independent voters key target

National advertising

Energy and environment major issue

Close election

Repeated presidential visits
17
Ciruli Associates 2008