Meeting the Challenge of Modernization
& Globalization after Sept.11
Beijing Node Report, Aug. 2001 to March 2002
Washington DC, March 14-15, 2002
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
A.
Node Works
•
1.
3 Workshops
l Discuss the 2001 State of the Future report
l Discuss Sept. 11 Event and its implication to
Mankind
l The Future Strategies in China to meet the
challenge of modernization and globalization
after Sept.11
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
A.
Node Works
2.
Interviews on the Management
Implications of Future Issues of Science
and Technology, and the third round of
the international study of Emerging
Environmental Issues and Events that
May Affect Military Requirements over
the period 2010 to 2025.
3. Publication
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
• Translation of 2001 State of the
Future into Chinese, the draft came
out, and
• Publication of the State of the
Future at the Millennium.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
4.
Joint-conferences on
“from vision to action”
l
International Conference on Ecosanitation, Nanning, China, Nov.5-8, 2001
l
National Conference on Ecopolis
Development, Changchun, Sept.15-18
l
Regional conference on Ecosettlement Planning and Design,
Guangzhou (Sept.29-30, 2001), Hangzhou
(Aug., 2001), Changsha (Dec. 2001).
B. Main conclusions
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
1.
Both Risks and
Opportunities for survival,
security and development are
increasing in modernization,
urbanization and globalization
after Sept. 11.
B. Main conclusions
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
2.
The current technologydominated world is vulnerable and
not so safe as we expected; the
human civilization is threatened
by terrorism as well as the nonintended and/or natural feedback
originated from human action;
B. Main conclusions
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
3.
In 5 years, the world peace is
still the main stream overwhelming
the risks, while in ten years or so some
risks will keep increasing and might
overwhelming the opportunities if man
can not alleviate the sharp social,
economic and natural conflicts and
carefully manage them such as:
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
Threatening conflicts
l long-term conflicts such as that in Mid-east
between Palestine and Israel;
l some technical innovation might be switched
from beneficial to harmful and uncontrollable as
chemical, biological and information “bombs” even
not deliberately induced;
l natural disasters including climatic, waterrelated and pests or diseases outbreak.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
4. Three main tendencies are
significant in near future:
(1)
World Scale: Globalization and
High-tech domination
Driving forces:
l Science & Technology
l
Market
l
Governance
l Culture
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
(1) World Scale: Globalization
and High-tech domination
Key processes:
l
Global capitalism
l
Global institution
l
Global spirituality
l
Global eco-cybernetics (GAIA)
They will bring the world significantly
both well being and disaster if
inappropriately managed through
positive and negative feedbacks.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
(2) Regional scale: Urbanization &
Modernization in China
l Impacts on hydrological, meteorological,
biological and landscape process, ecological
footprint and nature’s service
l Impacts on material, energy, capital and
people flow
l Impacts on production mode, consumption
style and social behavior
l Threatening to people’s health and life
security
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
(3) Individual scale: Internet culture
and its influences on people’s life
l Positive and negative roles in business,
education, communication, daily life and social
behavior;
l Risks: information exploding risk; facility
collapse risk; behavioral misleading risk, crimeinducing risk.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
5. Three key issues are identified for
eco- security & social turbulence:
l
Social eco-security: poverty,
injustice, inequity, religion, isolation,
desperation
l
Economic eco-security: counterecologically production, consumption,
reduction, circulation and regulation
l
Natural eco-security: system level
disorder in water, fire, soil, wood and
metal
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
6. Lessons for the future of
the world peace
• Tension can not be alleviated through
tooth to tooth action, revenge will
deepening the hate and cause further
revenge;
• To switch positive feedback to negative
one, one need to release the energy of
hate and turn it into the energy of love
from internal inducement rather than
external interference;
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
6. Lessons for the future of
the world peace
• Learn experiences from traditional
civilization (symbiosis, resource recycling
and self-reliance) to reform industrial
civilization (competition, nature
exploitation and profit driving) in an ecocybernetical way.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
6. Lessons for the future of
the world peace
• limited carrying capacity of the planet
can not maintain the high quality of life
experienced in industrialized countries
like US;
• switch the development goal from
material wealth to include individual
and ecosystem health and spiritual faith
as well is absolutely necessary.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
C. Working plan of next year
1. Initiating Eco-security study in China
with an emphasis on the eco-security and
strategies of urbanization and
modernization started from a series of
workshops and conferences.
2. Organizing an International
Conference on Eco-city, Eco-industry and
Eco-culture, Aug.19-23, Shenzhen.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
C. Working plan of next year
• 3.
Organizing a National Conference
on Globalization and ecocountermeasures after China entered
into WTO, Sep. 5-8, Chengdu.
4.
Publishing The State of the Future
2001 in Chinese.
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
D. Suggestions for future
MP studies
1.
Deepening scenarios to link the
future alternatives with real
development strategies in different
economy;
2. Enhancement of regional MP
studies through initiating one concrete
project each year;
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
D. Suggestions for future
MP studies
3. Hold Global forums in different regions
through giving lectures to decision makers,
researchers and students to switch the future
vision into action;
4. Pay attention to retrospect study in
addition to prospect study;
5. Pay attention to spiritual study in addition
to material study.
Future Integration
Beijing Node for
Millennium
Project
S&T
Believing
MP
Marketing
Governance