A Role for Science & Technology Foresight
in CTBT-ISS ?
Exploring the next generation verification system
Matthias Weber and Ron Johnston
ARC systems research & Australian Centre for Innovation
Vienna, 17 September 2008
Overview
 The context for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
 The landscape of S&T Foresight methods
 Experiences with S&T Roadmapping
 Key issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
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The global context for CTBT-ISS
 Geopolitical shifts
 E.g. new entrants/exits to the “nuclear club”
 International agreements and regulations
 E.g. early detection of nuclear disasters
 Shifts in perception of risks
 E.g. greater focus on climate change and natural disasters
 Financial pressures
 E.g. budget cuts
 Scientific advances
 E.g. infrasound
 Technological advances
 E.g. IT-based communication and computation advances
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The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight
 Shift from building up a verification system to operating,
maintaining and upgrading it
 Emerging needs and opportunities
 Assess appropriateness of the existing system to meet its
future tasks
 Continuous monitoring of emerging S&T opportunities
 Consensus-building on the introduction of novel elements
 Integration into the existing system
 Spill-over potential into other problem areas (e.g. natural
disasters)
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The local context for a CTBTO S&T Foresight (2)
 Three stakeholder communities to consider
 Preparatory Comission
 CTBT-ISS
 Scientific communities
S&T Foresight as a process-based instrument to deal
with emerging needs and opportunities in interaction
with stakeholder communities
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Forecasting – Foresight – Planning
What is the difference?
 Forecasting supposes that there is one possible future,
based on extrapolation or projections of past and present
trends. Involves only experts. Time horizons commonly
5-10 years.
 Foresight assume that there are many futures, and
through the mobilisation of interested stakeholders it is
feasible to develop a fuller understanding of the forces
shaping the long-term future. It uses time horizons of 1020 years.
 Planning is based on theories or doctrines on future
developments. Involves only policy makers and experts.
Time horizons between 1-5 years.
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Landscape of Future Studies
Focus on Markets and Business Environments
(economic, political, societal, ecological)
= non-technological driving forces
Scenarios of Future
Societies
(e.g. Political think tanks)
Strategic Marketing
and Trend Research
Strategic
Market Research
(Conventional
market research
Global Trends
(e.g. World Bank,
Worldwatch Institute)
Prospective Economic Analyses
+ 5 years
Today
Competition
Analysis
+ 10 years
+ 15 years
Innovation and Technology Analysis
Product Impact Assessment
Technology Assessment
Technology
(e.g.Offices for technology
Monitoring
Strategic
assessment)
Technology
Monitoring
Technology Foresight
(e.g. Delphi-Studies,
Focus on Technologies
Technology Monitoring)
Source: F. Ruff
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Methods & Tools
Diagnosis
Prescription
Prognosis
Environmental
Scanning/Monitoring
Trend Extrapolation
Modelling and Simulation
Scenario
Building
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research
X
X
X
XX
X
X
Roadmapping
Critical/Key Technologies
X
XX
X
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
XX
XX
Normative
X
X
Expert Panels
Delphi Survey
Quantitative
XX
Exploratory
Qualitative
X
X
Predictive
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
XX
X
X
XX
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Two basic approaches to Foresight
Exploratory approach: what would we expect to happen if
this event happens or if that trend develops?
Knowledge
about the
present
What if
Alternative
futures
Normative approach: what to do now to make the „best
future“ happen?
The „best future“
Present
actions
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Alternative
futures
Source: Keenan/PREST
Application of the foresight methodology
 Establishing a transparent structured decision-making
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process
Introducing a forward-looking attitude – anticipative
intelligence
Provoking a creative and motivating decision making
environment
Stimulating a participative approach
Enabling mutual learning and strategic dialogue
Reaching consensus around shared visions
Linking technology and innovation to wider socioeconomic issues
Paving the way for coordinated/coherent action
Source: Keenan/PREST
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S&T Roadmapping (STRM) as an option for
CTBT-ISS?
 A STRM is a process tool to help identify the key
scientific and technological development that an
industry/sector/company/organisation needs to
succeed in the future, and the projects/steps required
to make these scientific and technological
developments available for implementing solutions.
 STRMs are developed by a group of collaborators
who are knowledgeable about an
industry/sector/research field and its relevant
scientific and technological developments
 STRM can be supported by a range of information
gathering (e.g. S&T Monitoring, bibliometric analysis,
data mining) and intelligence tools
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A Canadian experience with STRM
WHO
WHAT/HOW
Industry -led Initiative
Facilitated by:
Industry Canada
Potential Facilitators:
Other Departments,
Research
Organizations,
Associations or
Consultants
WHY
Anticipated Benefits
Phase I
Periodic iteration
Feasibility
Resources
Analysis
Phase II
Suppliers
Manufacturers
End Users
Actions to develop, commercialize
and transfer technology
Phase III
Academia
and Research
Organizations
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Periodic evaluation, re-thinking,
and cultural adoption
• Identified market
demands
• Identified critical
technologies
• Targeted R&D
investment
• Reduced market and
investment risk
• Partnerships
• Enhanced
competitiveness
• Influence on
government policy,
programs and
regulations
• Innovation
• Improved knowledge
• Productivity Growth
• Identified human
resource and skills
gaps
Generic roadmap –
links resources to objectives
Past
Market / Customers / Competitors /
Environment / Industry /
Business / Trends / Drivers / Threats /
Objectives / Milestones / Strategy
Products / Services / Applications /
Services / Capabilities / Performance /
Features / Components / Families /
Processes / Systems / Platforms /
Opportunities / Requirements / Risks
Technology /
Competences /
Knowledge
Other resources:
Skills / Partnerships / Suppliers /
Facilities / Infrastructure / Organisation /
Standards / Science / Finance / R&D Projects
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Now
Plans
Future
Vision Time
Layers connect:
(know-when)
‘purpose’
(know-why)
‘delivery’
(know-what)
‘resources’
(know-how)
Roadmap for Electronic Devices
Number of chip components
295oK
1018
Classical Age
Quantum Age
1016
77oK
1014
4oK
2010
SIA Roadmap 2005
Quantum State Switch
2000
1995
1012
1010
108 Historical Trend
1990
106
1980
104
CMOS
1970
102
101
100
10-1
10-2
Feature size (microns)
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10-3
Source: Fine, MIT
Nanotechnology Roadmap – lessons learned:
Atomically Precise Technology (APT)
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Atomic precision is the guiding vision for nanotechnology.
Required for Moore's law progress in 15 year time frame.
Required for optimal materials and systems.
Current forms have sharply restricted capabilities.
Advances will enable expanding applications.
APT development requires focused cross-disciplinary
research to develop a body of engineering knowledge for
systematic design and improvement of AP nanosystems
Source: Foresight Nanotech Institute
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Nanotechnology roadmap – lessons learned:
Atomically Precise Manufacturing (APM)
 Essential feature: programmable control of operations.
 Required for engineering and fabricating complex AP
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systems.
Scanning probe devices: APM on metals,
semiconductors.
Biomolecular machines: APM of polymer objects.
Self-assembly: large AP products from smaller ones.
Near-term APM promises a growing range of
applications.
Advanced APM promises revolutionary applications.
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Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
 Establishing the scope and the issue/s to be addressed
 In need of a scenario-based approach ?
 Defining the time horizon
 Crucial balance between policy relevance and exploratory
character
 Designing an appropriate foresight process
 Definition of the range of stakeholders to engage, and of the
approaches to achieve it
 Selecting the appropriate foresight tools
 Drawing on the foresight „toolbox“
 Ensuring adequate participation
 Mobilising the relevant communities is challenging!
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Issues for a CTBT-ISS S&T Foresight initiative
 Appropriate guidance and facilitation
 Professional support is essential for success
 Regular updating and integration in CTBT strategy
 Not just a one-off exercise, but part of a wider learning process
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