Econ 1000 lecture 4: Elasticity C.L. Mattoli (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 1 This week Mod 2, part 3 Chapter 5: Elasticity (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 2 Learning objectives: Mod 2 On successful completion of this module (lecture 3 of the module), you should be able to: Explain the concept of elasticity Calculate and interpret price, income and cross-price elasticity of demand Calculate and interpret price elasticity of supply . (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 3 Introduction 1. 2. We have talked, in general terms, about demand and supply schedules and curves. We have discussed opportunity costs: When a consumer buys one thing, he will not have money for others. When a producer decides to produce one thing, he will forego the opportunity to produce other things. The real question is how important is one thing versus the other opportunities. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 4 Producer motivations Producers (suppliers) are in business to make a profit. In that regard, they would like to get as high a price as they can for a good or service. On the other hand, they know what minimum price they can offer goods in certain quantities and still make a profit. They need to understand how consumers will react to different prices, in order to arrive at proper prices for marketing their wares. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 5 Psychology & Logic of Econ Think about how things affect each other, how they interact. Think about how people are. For example, if the price of coca cola goes up, some people will just switch to Pepsi, if it’s price didn’t change … it’s just human nature. Thus, the availability of substitutes will affect how demand will change as prices go up and down. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 6 Psychology & Logic of Econ You don’t have much of a choice about who will supply your electricity, if you live in a city … you can’t get by on batteries. If there are barriers to entry for an industry, high prices will be charged, until other people break into the market and compete and lower the excess profits. A change in the price of one vegetable will affect the supply of other vegetables. There is only so much farming land, and farmers will allocate according to their profit expectations. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 7 Psychology & Logic of Econ With a lot of things, the more you do it, the less pleasure you get out of it. You eat out, and you eventually get saturated with eating out. But if the price was lowered, you might go back for more. You only have so much money, and you have to allocate it according to your needs and desires. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 8 Revenue and how is it shown in the market model Price What happens to revenue when demand changes? S0 Revenue goes up when demand goes up P0 P1 D0 D1 Q1 Q0 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Quantity 9 Revenue and how is it shown in the market model? Price What happens to revenue when supply changes? S0 S1 Not as clear P0 P1 D0 Q0 Q1 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Quantity 10 The importance of percentages Often, in finance and economics, we are more concerned with percentages and percentage changes than with raw numbers or absolute number changes. That is because percentages give us a better basis for comparison, in many cases. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 11 The importance of percentages For example, it is not so important that someone made $100 on an investment. What is more important is to ask how much did she invest to earn the $100. If she invested $100 to earn $100, then the return on investment was Income/investment = $100/$100 = 100%. If the investment was $10,000, the return on investment was $100/$10,000 = 1%. The percentage number was much more interesting. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 12 The importance of percentages The same is true about growth in GDP (gross domestic product). If one country’s GDP growth was $100 million last year and another country's growth $1 trillion, the next question to ask is how much total did the countries have in GDP. Then, we can compute a percentage growth rate, and we will better be able to compare the growth rates in GDP of the two economies. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 13 The importance of percentages We looked at the general concepts of supply and demand: quantity demanded should be a decreasing function of price, while quantity supplied should be an increasing function of price. But how will those quantities vary exactly with price: that is an important question. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 14 The importance of percentages To begin our next stage of economic analysis, elasticity, we will look, more precisely, at how quantities vary with. To do that, in a meaningful way, we will …. You guessed it…. Use percentages. Elasticities look at percentage change of one variable with respect to percentage change of another. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 15 Elasticity of Demand (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 16 Price Elasticity of demand The law of demand says that the quantity demanded, QD(P), is a function of price, P, and QD(P) is decreasing with increasing price. The question is: how much will QD change when price changes. That will be a valuable piece of information for suppliers to know. Then, they can pick up their own pencils, and figure out whether or not production should be done, at what price, quantity, and what cost. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 17 Price Elasticity of demand Instead of using the ordinary variation of QD with P, i.e., ΔQD/Δ P, consider the percentage change of quantity, ΔQD/ QD, versus the percentage change in price, Δ P/P. ED = Elasticity of demand = [percentage change in quantity demanded ]/ [percentage change in price] (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 18 Price Elasticity of demand = [ΔQD/ QD ]/[Δ P/P] In that regard, we are looking at percentage change in the number of units purchased caused by a one percent change in price. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 19 Elasticity of demand exampled Suppose that we made observations that found that Kangda college’s enrollment will drop by 20%, if the price of tuition increases by 10%. Then, we could calculate the elasticity coefficient of demand =[percentage change in quantity demanded ]/ [percentage change in price] = [ΔQD/ QD ]/[Δ P/P] = %ΔQD/%ΔP = (-20%)/(10%) = -2. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 20 Elasticity of demand exampled It will always be a negative number since, if price goes up, quantity demanded goes down, and vice versa. That’s just human nature. So, we usually just say that the elasticity coefficient is equal to 2. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 21 What it means to a supplier What that means to the supplier is that, if he increases or decreases the price by 1%, he will experience a an opposite change of 2% in the number of units that he will be able to sell. That will affect his total revenues, which are equal to QxP = Total Revenue = RT. For example, assume that the price for tuition at Kangda is currently $50,000 per year = P0, and that there are 5,000 students = Q0. Then, RT0= Q0xP0 = $50,000x5,000 = $250 million. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 22 What it means to a supplier Next, suppose that we try to increase the price by 1% = $50,000 x 0.01 = $500 to P1 = $50,500. Then, according to the elasticity coefficient of 2, enrollment will decrease by 2% = 100 to 4,900. In that case total revenue will be RT = $50,500x4,900 = $247,450,000, which means that the supplier has lost revenue of about $2.5 million, which is no small amount of money. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 23 What it means to a supplier What that means is that, in order to be ahead of the game by raising prices, he will also have to raise his profit margin enough to more than compensate for his loss in revenue. For example, assume that he had a profit margin of 10%, originally. Profit margin = PM = profit/revenue = 10%. Then, his original profit would be profit = E0 = RTxPM = $250,000,000x10% = $25,000,000. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 24 What it means to a supplier For the supplier to break even on profits, his new profit margin needs to be $25,000,000/$247,450,000 = 10.1%. Therefore, the supplier will have to look at his pro-forma profit margin before he can make a decision to raise or lower prices. In the end, it will be his own internal costs and marginal cost considerations that will allow him to make a decision about what price he should charge to maximize his profits (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 25 Mathematically: total revenue change Total revenue equals price time quantity demanded: RT0 = Q0xP0 Q1 = Q0 + ΔQ ; P1 = P0 – ΔP since price and quantity demanded will have opposite signs. The variation of total revenues with respect to price is given by: Δ RT /ΔP = P x[ΔQ/ΔP] + QxΔP/ΔP = P x[ΔQ/ΔP] And Δ RT /ΔP = [Q0xP0 – Q0xΔP – ΔQxΔP + ΔQxP0 – Q0xP0]/ΔP = – Q0 – ΔQ + ΔQxP0/ΔP = – Q1 + P0x ED. So what?... (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 26 Mathematically: total revenue & elasticity If we want to find the condition for increasing total revenue, that means that the change in revenue should always be a positive number. In algebra, we require: Δ RT /ΔP > 0. So, Δ RT /ΔP = P x[ΔQ/ΔP] + Q >0 Rearranging the symbols in the equation, we get ΔQ/(ΔP/P) > – Q (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 27 Mathematically: total revenue Or, (ΔQ/Q)/(ΔP/P) = %ΔQ/%ΔP = ED > –1 Thus, in order for R to increase with increasing P, E must be less than 1 in size. Demand must be price inelastic. We shall take a closer look at revenues, in the next module. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 28 The problem with elasticity calculations When we actually do calculations, we are not dealing in abstract equations or perfect continuous curves. We will usually deal with a finite number of pairs of quantity and price, (Qi,Pi), in a demand schedule or a table. Suppose we know two points in the demand schedule between which we want to calculate elasticity: (Q1,P1) = (400,$10) and (Q2,P2) = (440,$9.50). (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 29 The problem with elasticity calculations Then, we can calculate the percentages two different ways. If we assume that prices fall and we want to know how much demand will rise, we quite naturally choose the starting points as (Q1,P1) = (400, $10) and calculate the percentages changes from those starting points of price and quantity, so elasticity = ED = [(440 – 400)/400]/[($9.50 – $10)/$10] = 2. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 30 The problem with elasticity calculations If, on the other hand, we want to look at what would happen to a price increase from $9.50 to $10, we would naturally use starting point of (Q2,P2) = (440,$9.50). Elasticity is, then, [(400 – 440)/440]/[($10 – 9.50)/$9.50] = 1.72. So, we get two different answers, depending on how we calculate: which point we start at. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 31 Elasticity: Mid-point approximation The simple cure to this problem, in economics, is to use an average of some sort, After all, right now we are imagining that we do not care if price goes up or if price goes down by 1%, we want one number for the percentage quantity that will either be retracted from or added to demand, as a general result. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 32 Elasticity: Mid-point approximation Moreover, since we are using 2 discrete, separate points, not even in a real curve, what we are really doing in our actual calculation of elasticity is to measure an approximate value at the mid-point on the actual curve that would exist, if we had mounds of minutely-detailed data for quantity and price. Thus, economics, as done in this course, will use a mid-point average value that is calculated in the following manner:……. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 33 Elasticity: Mid-point approximation 1. 2. Take the mid points for both quantity and for price, which are simple averages ΔQD/ [(Q1D + Q2D)/2] and ΔP/ [(P1 + P2)/2]. Then, use percentages based on the mid-point as: mid-point elasticity approximation: %ΔQD/%ΔP = {ΔQD/ [(Q1D + Q2D)/2]}/{ ΔP/ [(P1 + P2)/2]} ={ΔQD/ (Q1D + Q2D)}/{ ΔP/ (P1 + P2)} because the 2’s on top and bottom cancel. We demonstrate some of these concepts, pictorially, in the next slide (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 34 Graphical Approximations First, look at elasticity along the dashed line. That is actually what we are using to calculate the approximate elasticity. It is approximately the Demand Curve P same line as the dotted line that is tangent to the actual $10.50 curve at the mid-point, more $10 or less, so we use the mid$9.50 point to calculate it. Notice, also, that on a real $9 demand curve the elasticity will change at different points o the line. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 400 QD 440 480 520 35 Graphical Approximations For example, if we calculate mid-point Elasticities between $9.50 and $10, we get E = [(440-400)/ ((440+400)/2)]/[($9.5-$10)/ ((9.5+10)/2)] = 1.86 If we calculate between $9 P and $9.5, we get E = [(520$10.50 440)/((530+440)/2)]/ [(9$10 9.5)/((9.5+9)/2)] = 3.08. $9.50 So, demand is more responsive to changes in $9 price as price decreases, in (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA this case. 2008 Demand Curve QD 400 440 480 520 36 Elasticity classifications 1. We classify elasticity into 3 basic categories: Elastic demand, ED > 1, means that the percentage change in quantity demanded changes more than the percentage change in price. Thus, a reduction in price will cause total revenues to increase; a rise in price will cause total revenues to fall. So, if elasticity of demand for Kangda college is 1.5, enrollment is 5000, and the price increases by 10% from $50,000/year to $55,000, then, enrollment will decrease by 1.5x10% = 15%. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 37 Elasticity classifications 2. Enrollment will fall to 5000x85% = 4250, and total revenues will fall to from 5,000x$50,000 = $250 million to 4250x%55,000 = $233,750,000. Unitary elasticity, ED = 1, is a special case in which the percentage change in quantity exactly equals the percentage change in price. In this special case, total revenues are completely insensitive to changes in price. Total revenue for Kangda will remain at $250 million, no matter what price is charged for tuition. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 38 Elasticity classifications 3. Inelastic demand, ED < 1, means that the percentage change in quantity demanded will be less than the percentage change in price. That means that total revenues will increase when price increases but will decrease when price decreases. In this case, if Kangda has an elasticity of 0.75, and it decides to raise its tuition from $50,000 to $60,000, a 20% price hike, it will only lose 15% (=0,75x20%) in enrollment, from 5000 to 4250, and total revenues will rise to $255 million. We show graphical examples of the three cases in the next 2 slides. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 39 How does the relative elasticity affect changes in producer revenue? Price ($) Inelastic = revenue increase with price increase & vice versa 90 70 D0 1000 1400 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Quantity/wk 40 3 Types of elasticity The general shapes of elasticity graphs (see page 120 of the textbook) and their causal chains. Price decrease Elastic Total Revenues Increase Price decrease Total Revenues unchanged Unitary Elastic (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Price decrease Total Revenues decrease Inelastic 41 Elasticity extremes There are also extreme cases for elasticity: perfectly inelastic, ED = 0, and perfectly elastic, ED = ∞. These are limiting cases for the index. Perfectly elastic demand corresponds to a demand curve that is perfectly horizontal (slope of Q(P) = ∞). So, if tuition is $50,000 and is perfectly inelastic, a change in tuition to $50,000.01 will result in zero enrollment. Perfectly elastic is the limiting case in which an infinitesimally small change in price will result in an infinite change in quantity demanded. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 42 Elasticity extremes Perfect inelasticity is the opposite extreme. In that case a change in price results in no change in quantity demanded. The demand curve is totally vertical (slope of Q(P) = 0), and demand is limited to an exact quantity. Perfect inelasticity is the limiting case in which a change in price causes no change at all in quantity demanded. We show example graphical representations of these extremes, in the next slide. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 43 Graphical Perfect elasticity Perfect elasticity P can be represented by a flat demand curve. Then, change in price results in an infinite change in demand. There is only one price ED = ∞ (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Q 44 Graphical Perfect inelasticity Perfect inelasticity P can be represented by a vertical demand curve. Then, change in price results in no change in demand. There is only one quantity ED = 0 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Q 45 Elasticity variations on a line Since elasticity is percentage change versus percentage change, it is different from the slope of a line, and elasticity may vary along demand curves. Thinking at the extremes, when price is very high and quantity demanded is small. Then, a change of one unit of quantity demanded is a large percentage change, while a change of price by $1 will be a small percentage change, so that demand is very elastic. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 46 Elasticity variations on a line When price is low and the quantity demanded is already large numbers of units, a $1 change in price is a large percentage change, while a unit change in quantity demanded is a small percentage change. Thus, demand at that end of the curve will be very inelastic. In between those extremes will come a turning point at which elasticity of demand will be unitary. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 47 Elasticity variations on a line Actually, it will, in particular, vary along a straight-line demand curve. We show this varying type of elasticity for a line, in the next slide. In the slide we show demand for DVD’s from a street vendor. In the upper region, it is elastic; in the lower, inelastic (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 48 Elasticity variations on a line Demand Schedule Demand for DVD’s 40 MidQuantity Total point Price demanded Revenues Elasticity Elastic: E>1 35 30 25 Unitary elastic: E=1 20 15 $40 0 $0 Inelastic: E<1 10 5 35 5 175 15.00 0 0 30 10 300 4.33 25 15 375 2.20 10 20 30 40 50 Total Revenues 450 400 20 20 400 1.29 350 300 15 25 375 0.78 250 200 10 30 300 0.45 150 100 50 5 35 175 0.23 0 0 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 10 20 30 40 49 Break time Please take a 10 minute break. Come up and ask questions, if you have any. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 50 Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 51 Elasticities for goods and services In truth, at least because of inflation, prices of most things change over time. Thus, we can expect that most things will have long-term and short-term elasticities that might be very different. Elasticities are one thing that economists like to keep track of, so we can look at elasticities of some common goods and services to see some real examples (see, also, page 126 of the textbook). (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 52 Elasticities for goods and services 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. According to some estimates, we have the following approximate elasticities of demand: Automobiles: 2, elastic Gas for automobiles: 0.5, inelastic Automobile tires and tubes: 1, unitary elastic Jewelry and watches: 0.5, inelastic Movies: 0.9, short-term inelastic; 3.7, longterm elastic Medical care: 0.3–0.9, inelastic (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 53 ED: availability of substitutes The most important element of electricity of demand is the availability of substitutes. Demand, quite naturally, will be more elastic for goods and services for which there are close substitutes. Then, if the price of the good or service changes, people can and will switch to the substitute. Again, it is simple human nature, logic & psychology. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 54 ED: availability of substitutes For example, if the price of cars goes up, people can switch to riding buses, trains, bicycles, or they can walk. Indeed, the more public transportation that is available, the more elastic will be the demand for automobiles. If you live in the middle of nowhere, and you have no car, your opportunity cost will involve all of the time that you spend walking from one place to another. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 55 ED: availability of substitutes Of course, the question of available substitutes depends on how broadly or narrowly we define the market. For example, the elasticity of demand is different for Ford automobiles than for some other automobile makers and automobiles, in general, because all of the other automobiles by other manufacturers are additional substitutes for Fords. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 56 ED: percentage of consumer budgets On the other hand, if there are no close substitutes, then, demand will be more inelastic. For example, there are no close substitutes for gasoline for automobiles. Thus, the demand for gasoline is fairly inelastic. For an item, like salt, which represents a very minor item in a person’s budget, the price could double, and most consumers would not bat an eye: it is so inexpensive and will remain so, in comparison to an overall consumer budget. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 57 ED: percentage of consumer budgets Thus demand for small percentage items will be inelastic. On the other hand, if the price of home purchase or meals at expensive restaurants were to double, demand for those items would drop substantially. They have very elastic demand because they represent a larger portion of a person’s budget. In general, the elasticity coefficient varies directly with the percentage that an item represents in the budget. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 58 Response to price changes over time As we have seen in examples in the lecture and can see on page 126 of the text, there are short-term and long-term elasticities. Elasticity can even change character between the short run and the long run, going from, e.g., inelastic in the short-run and elastic in the long-run. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 59 Response to price changes over time The explanation of this can be looked at in terms of people’s mentalities and the availability of substitutes. In some cases, people cannot accept change, immediately, but over time they can adjust, mentally. Because they are used to driving back and forth to work, alone, the immediate response to a hike in gasoline prices is to keep going the way they have been. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 60 Response to price changes over time As the high price persists, they will begin to cut back on little trips to the store. They will slow speed to save gasoline. They may form car pools and drive together. They might stop being so stubborn and decide that a bus or a train is not such a bad alternative to driving. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 61 Response to price changes over time The next time they buy a car, they will seek one that is more fuel efficient. Thus, their demand elasticity while fairly inelastic in the short-run, becomes less inelastic in the long-run. Demand for movies is inelastic in the short-run (0.87) because everyone wants to see the new movie when it previews. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 62 Response to price changes over time Over time, however, the excitement diminishes. Friends tell you about their experience at the movie. You keep thinking that someday, maybe you should see it, but it becomes less important, and demand becomes very elastic (3.67). Indeed, as a price change persists, there might be greater efforts to find substitutes or to invent them. In general, the price elasticity of demand increases with time the longer a price change persists. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 63 Opportunities You have a certain amount of earnings each month. You allocate that among choices. The choices that you give up to take others are your opportunity costs. For a particular good, a substitute that you gave up to get that good is your opportunity cost. As the price of a good goes up relative to substitutes, the opportunity cost of continuing to buy that good increases in terms of the others. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 64 Airline ticket pricing: an example of complicated elasticity of demand to price Airline ticket pricing can seem particularly complicated and convoluted, but, if we think in terms of price elasticity of demand, people’s convenience, and inflexibility, we will understand that the designers of the pricing scheme are very crafty. Most people might not like the idea of getting up early in the morning to ride on a plane, so unit demand at those hours is very flexible to changes in price. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 65 Airline ticket pricing: an example of complicated elasticity of demand to price Thus, demand is elastic, and the airlines make prices cheap at such slow times of the day to induce people to fly. At busy times of the day, demand is inelastic, so airlines can charge higher prices. Similar pricing patterns can be observed on longer time scales. For example a trip from GZ to Xi’an was 40% of the normal price in early January, but as the Chinese New Year approached, the price went up to 90%. If you book ahead three months before the May holiday, you can get 40%. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 66 Airline ticket pricing: an example of complicated elasticity of demand to price Those longer term pricing policies reflect inelastic demand for urgent, lastminute travel and more elastic demand for longer term travel planning. The airline induces people to book early and penalizes those that it can: those who have no choice but to travel on lastminute plans. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 67 Other Elasticities (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 68 Elasticity, in general As we discussed, earlier, elasticity is simply a specialized measure of change in one variable with respect to another. Sometimes, the ordinary slope, ΔY(X)/ΔX, the change in Y, a function of X [Y(X)], with respect to a change in X is an appropriate measure. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 69 Elasticity, in general In other case, however, especially in economics and finance, percentages and percentage changes are more appropriate measures to analyze a problem. Thus, the general concept of elasticity, percentage change of a variable with respect to percentage change of another variable, can arise as an appropriate measure in other circumstances. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 70 Income elasticity of demand An important non-price financial factor in demand is income. Indeed, we have discussed that there are even two separate categories of goods, normal and inferior, that respond in opposite manners to changes in income. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 71 Income elasticity of demand Thus, in order to examine how consumption responds to changes in income, economists look at income elasticity of demand. Income elasticity of demand is defined as the percentage change in quantity demanded with respect to percentage changes in income, Y (the standard symbol for income in econ), EY = %ΔQD/%ΔY ={ΔQD/ (Q1D + Q2D)}/{ ΔY/ (Y1 + Y2)}. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 72 Positive and negative income elasticity Unlike the case of price elasticity of demand, which was always a negative number, income elasticity of demand will be positive for normal goods, EY>0, and negative for inferior goods, EY<0. In that regard, we could classify normal goods as those whose income elasticities of demand are positive and inferior goods as those whose income elasticities are negative. In any event, it will be useful to know what will happen to demand for any good or service when income changes since income changes all the time, and it can particularly change in times of general economic downturns: recessions. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 73 Income demand elasticity exampled Suppose that it is found that the quantity demanded of illegal DVD’s in Guangzhou increases from 10,000 per month to 15,000 per month when monthly income increases from $1,000 to $1,250 or inferior. Then, we can find both the income elasticity and its sign to discover the good’s true nature: normal or inferior… EY = %ΔQD/%ΔY ={ΔQD/ (Q1D + Q2D)}/{ ΔY/ (Y1 + Y2)} = [(15000–10000)/(15000+10000)]/[(1250-1000)/(1250+1000)] = +1.8 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 74 Income demand elasticity exampled Thus, in this mid-point approximation, an 11% average change in income results in a positive 20% average change in quantity of DVD’s sold. Thus, illegal DVD’s are a normal good with fairly responsive demand versus income changes in a positive manner. In the end-point calculation, the elasticity is 2, which is fairly positively elastic, and elastic, in the case of a positive elasticity is a good thing. Income elasticity can be different in the long and short runs, becoming either more or less elastic. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 75 Recessions: not necessarily a bad thing. Although the bite of a recession, a downturn in economic activity, causes many people to suffer decreases in income, others prosper. While sellers of luxury automobiles, expensive jewelry, and ritzy restaurants will see lower income in recessions, sellers of so-called inferior goods, like cheap used cars or generic brands of food and drugs, will see a rise in their unit sales. Normal goods have a negative income elasticity of demand: when income falls, unit demand rises. At least recessions can be good for sellers of inferior goods. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 76 Normal or inferior In the table on page 129 of the textbook, only one good, potatoes, showed a negative elasticity of income for the long-term. For most of the other limited items on page 129, elasticity is positive, and, except for automobiles and furniture, most of the elasticities are larger in the long-run than in the short-run. Other goods and services that we might imagine as having negative income elasticity are bus rides, used cars, cheap restaurant meals, retread tires, hamburger helper, and other things that people buy because they cannot afford to buy a better substitute. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 77 Children: normal or inferior It has been observed, especially over the last century, that two trends have emerged in the world. As the world entered the industrial age, people’s incomes have grown substantially, on the one hand, and the number of children in families has decreased. As economists, we would conclude, ceteris paribus, that the demand for children seems to react opposite to change in income. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 78 Children: normal or inferior If that is truly the case, then, children would seem to be inferior goods. Some economists might argue that there are so many other factors that affect family size, others would point out that there might be a connection to the prices of complementary goods for children, like clothing, food and education, have also risen, and that these price changes have also contributed to the decrease in demand for children. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 79 Children: normal or inferior You might also think of other factors that can affect demand for children. Children provide satisfaction for parents, but with rising income, there are many other choices of satisfying goods available for parents to purchase, like expensive vacations and luxury automobiles. In the past, children were also a free source of labor to, for example, help with farming, but with farms gone, and better jobs supplied by other people, again, the demand for children is diminished. In any event, we might conclude that children are inferior goods. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 80 Cross-elasticity of demand Another factor that we learned can affect demand for one good or service is prices of other goods or services. Again, in this case, we have two different categories of goods: substitutes and complements. Thus, we can apply the elasticity concept to examine responsiveness of quantity demanded of one good based on price changes of other related goods. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 81 Cross-elasticity of demand Given those circumstances, we can define the cross-elasticity of demand as the percentage change in quantity demanded of one good corresponding to a percentage change in the price of a related good or service: EC = %ΔQX/%ΔPY ={ΔQX/ (QX1 + QX2)}/{ ΔPY/ (PY1 + PY2)} is the cross-elasticity of demand for good X versus change in price of good Y (mid-point formula). (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 82 Complement or substitute: what’s your sign? Thus, the general rule is that cross elasticity for substitutes is a positive number. As in the case of income elasticity, cross elasticity can be positive or negative: the sign will distinguish between the two categories of goods whose prices can affect the quantity demanded of the good in question. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 83 Complement or substitute: what’s your sign? Consider that if Coke raises its price by 10% and as a result, ceteris paribus, consumers buy 5% more Pepsi. Then, the cross elasticity of demand for Pepsi with the price of Coke is EC = +0.5. Next, suppose that the price of motor oil to lubricate automobile engines rises by 50%, and as a result the quantity demanded for gasoline declines by 1%. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 84 Complement or substitute: what’s your sign? Motor oil and gasoline are complements. You need to keep your engine lubricated, if you are going to drive your car. The more you drive, the more motor oil you need. The characteristic of complement is also displayed in the cross-elasticity result as a negative sign. Thus, the cross elasticity of demand for gas with respect to price of motor oil is EC = (– 1%)/(50%) = – 0.02, a negative number. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 85 Elasticity of Supply (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 86 Elasticity of supply In studying elasticity of demand we already discovered some useful information for suppliers: how total revenues will vary with price. Just as price affects consumer sentiment about purchasing goods and services, price is an important factor to a supplier. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 87 Elasticity of supply Indeed, in the case of supply, the price will determine whether or not the supplier can make a profit on his sales. That is why he has chosen to be in business, and if he cannot make profits, he will exit the business, and supply will decrease definitely. In the next chapter, we will begin to study the cost side of production and supply and see how cost interacts with price and profits. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 88 Elasticity of supply For now, we can look at things from the outside by defining the elasticity of supply as the percentage change in quantity supplied resulting from a certain percentage change in price: ES ={ΔQS/ (Q1S + Q2S)}/{ ΔP/ (P1 + P2)}. Intuitively, elasticity of supply should always be a positive number. If price increases, a supplier should be willing to supply more, not less. The same for a price decrease: if the price is cut, a supplier should be willing to supply less, not more. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 89 Elasticity of supply Supply is elastic when ES>1, unit elastic when ES=1, and inelastic when ES<1. As in the case of elasticity of demand, supply elasticities will be different in the sort-run and in the long run. Price elasticity of supply will, in general, be more elastic in the long run, so the longrun supply curve will be flatter. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 90 Elasticity of supply In chapter 7, we discuss how the time factor is a major determinant in the shape of the supply curve. Here, we will look at one cost in supply, taxation, how it affects supply, and how governments use elasticity to design taxation schemes that will bring them a lot of revenues. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 91 Graphical supply elasticity We show the 3 general cases of price elasticity of supply, in the extremes. Perfect Elastic Unit Elastic Perfect Inelastic P 10% 10% QS (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 92 Taxation and supply elasticity Governments get the bulk of their income from taxes. Comprehensive coverage taxes, like the GST, the goods and services sales tax, are generally a small percentage, like 5% so as not to be too large a factor in discouraging demand. They usually also exempt necessities, like food, clotting, and shelter, to name a few, so as not to affect demand for things that people need to live. Thus, governments consider welfare and other economic factors when designing tax systems. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 93 Taxation and supply elasticity Excise taxes are taxes imposed on sellers of certain goods and services, and they are usually substantially higher than sales tax on regular goods. These taxes are on items that the government has deemed as harmful or in some way bad for society, anyway, like alcohol, cigarettes, and gasoline, but they also display inelastic demand. So demand will be little affected by the additional tax on the item, and tax revenues can be fairly certain. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 94 Excise tax: who really pays? You could say that the seller pays since he is the one who pays the tax. Economists use the elasticity concept in this problem to analyze the question of who really pays: the consumer or supplier? Tax incidence is the portion of tax paid by consumer or seller. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 95 Who pays example Tax incidence will depend on both elasticities of supply and demand. The more inelastic supply, the more is paid by seller. The more inelastic demand, the more is paid by the buyer. Suppose that there is initially no excise tax on gasoline, and the equilibrium price is $1.00/liter. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 96 Who pays example Next, suppose that the government installs an excise tax of $0.50/liter. Elasticity of demand with respect to price will tell part of the tale. If demand is completely inelastic, then, all of the cost will be born by the buyer, even though the tax was imposed on the seller If demand has elasticity, the tax burden will be shared between consumer and the seller. (see next slide) (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 97 Who pays example Who pays excise tax? Supplier adds excise tax to his price and shifts the supply curve up $0.50 at every price More Inelastic demand Total inelastic demand More paid by buyer All paid by buyer Less paid by seller None paid by seller Buyer Seller Buyer (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 98 Who pays Example As elasticity of supply becomes more vertical (inelastic) and elasticity of demand becomes more horizontal (elastic), the tax burden is shifted to seller 12 10 8 Paid by buyer 6 Paid by seller 4 2 0 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 175 200 99 Who pays example Thus, if demand is completely inelastic, the buyer will bear all of the tax burden. If the demand curve is upward sloping, the new supply curve will intersect the old demand curve at a quantity that would have been supplied at a price, $0.50 lower than where the new equilibrium is. In that sense, the final equilibrium price will be below $1.50, and the cost of the tax will be split between consumer and seller. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 100 Taxes and markets In general, taxes will distort market outcomes and result in prices that are too high and output that is too low. Thus, imposing taxes can lead to inefficient markets when the object is tax revenue and disincentive for consumers to engage in bad things. However, we have also seen the case, in the last section, whereby taxes are used as a disincentive for suppliers to stop doing bad things or at least pay for the damage that they are inflicting on others, like in the case of pollution. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 101 Tax, Equilibrium P&Q, and Revenues Price S1 Tax Revenues S0 Initial producer revenue PT P0 Revenues after tax P-T D0 QT Q0 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Quantity 102 Summary of Elasticities %ΔQD/%ΔP %ΔQA/%ΔPB %ΔQD/%ΔY %ΔQS/ %ΔP Price elasticity of demand Crosselasticity Income elasticity of demand Elasticity of supply Profit Substitute/ Normal/ change with Complement Inferior price change (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 Greater in Long Run 103 In the end In the end, economics is about wants being fulfilled by businesses. The price charged for something will cause less people to want it, as price increases, while a higher price will be viewed favorably by business. The market, left to its own devices, will find an agreeable price at which sellers are willing to supply exactly the amount that buyers wants. Then, the market will clear. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 104 In the end Although we might think that as price increased, indefinitely, suppliers would be better and better off, in this lecture, we learned that there will be a maximum price, after which total revenues begin to, again, decrease. That is a result of the demand equation. The limit to total revenue is strictly a result of demand, and is out of the immediate control of the seller, although he might try to create more demand. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 105 In the end That maximum revenue means that profit margins must be able to be increased, enough, by the unit price rise, to overcome the decrease in total revenues since RT = Price x Quantity , profit margin = PM = profits/revenues , profits = profit margin x revenues. Our next step will be to examine the cost side of the supplier’s equation. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 106 In the end Then, we will have to find out if there is a maximum point for profits, beyond which a supplier will not increase supply. We will have to see how costs, on the supply side, interact with revenues generated by the demand side. Then, we will have a more clear picture of economics, through the operation of the businesses at its base. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 107 Exam-caliber questions 1. 2. For excise taxes, If supply is vertical, all tax is paid by consumer; if demand is horizontal, all tax is paid by the producer. Can you describe, in words, and show, in pictures, how tax incidence varies with changing elasticities of supply and demand? Governments tend to impose excise taxes on social or economic “evils”, like smoking, alcohol, and traffic violations. Discuss at least 3 general reasons that a government would want to tax such things. (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 108 How Smart are You 3. We said that it is a concave curved demand line that can display unit elasticity everywhere. Can you show that any straight-line supply curve that passes through the origin (P=Q=0) is everywhere unit-elastic? (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 109 Homework Chapter 5 (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 110 End (C) Red Hill Capital Corp, Delaware USA 2008 111