Agricultural Sustainability
Indicators: a Global and
Developing Country PerspectiveWhy and Why Not?
March 2006
Hans R. Herren
Millennium Institute
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
Keynote Overview
1. Why indicators?
2. The nature of indicators
3. The process of sustainability
assessment
4. Why not indicators: issues &
challenges for developing countries
5. Possible framework for indicator
development
6. Conclusion
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
March 2006
What is Agricultural Sustainability?
(Little need to review the many diverse
definitions of sustainability since the 1972 Earth
Summit)
Farming that makes best use of nature’s goods
and services while not damaging the
environment.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
1. Why indicators?
March 2006
• Agricultural sustainability is a must if we want to
be able to produce food for the generations
ahead
• Agricultural sustainability is complex and needs
to cover the whole food chain, from production to
consumption
• Knowing and tracking indicators provides an
opportunity for the concerned public to follow
this food chain, and its trends toward or away
from sustainability.
…but the chains has major
disconnects at three levels…..
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
1. Why indicators?
March 2006
The Status of the Agricultural Production Base;
characterized by disconnects, both the in developed
and developing world:
A. Disconnects between agriculture and
the environment;
B. Disconnects between producers and
consumers or land and cities;
C. Disconnects between policies and
expectations.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
1. Why indicators?
March 2006
A. Disconnects between agriculture and the
environment
Contemporary agriculture
= managing land in ways
that conflict with the
healthy functioning of
ecosystems (level fields,
reductions of
biodiversity, no rest
period, use of toxic
chemicals, etc.) Yet
agriculture depends on
the healthy functioning of
ecosystems:
-water supply,
-cycling of nutrients
in soils,
-pollination,
-pest control
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
1. Why indicators?
A.
. Disconnects between agriculture
and the environment
con’t
Human activities have
significantly
disturbed water,
carbon and nitrogen
cycles and so are
impacting global
climate change,
which in turn is and
will impact
agricultural
productivity and
challenge
sustainability
Contemporary farming
methods have degraded
soil leading to massive
fertilizer use.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
1. Why indicators?
B. Disconnects between producers and
consumers or land and cities
Perpetual low prices that consumers are generally willing to pay for
food (making farming a precarious business),
is now compounded by
a crisis of trust amongst consumers, fueled by food scares
(Mad Cow, Asian Bird Flu) and a sense that many supermarket
foods are low on nutritional value, high on price.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
1. Why indicators?
C. Disconnects between policies and
expectations.
March 2006
Almost every country in the world cherishes its agricultural roots,
..in song, picture and mythology.
But this valuation is rarely translated into policy to support the
family farms that are central to an agricultural community.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
1. Why indicators?
March 2006
There are multiple motivations to use/collect
indicators of agricultural sustainability, although
few apply to developing countries:
• To monitor impacts of policy (few developing
countries want this information collected);
• Because consumers demand this information
(weak consumer movement);
• Because an environmental movement demands
this information (weak environmental movement);
• Because an enlightened private sector wants this
information (weak private sector).
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
1. Why indicators?
But changes are underfoot:
March 2006
• Increased demands for accountability by citizens
and donors;
• Consumers are becoming more discriminating;
more food is being purchased in conventional
retail outlets and supermarkets;
• Growing sophistication of NGOs;
• Export private sector is demanding standards
and certification.
Herein lies a risk, that these forces “driving” the assessment
of agricultural sustainability are somewhat external to the
system…
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
2. The nature of indicators
March 2006
Indicators:
• Are natural and everywhere
• Arise from values and create values
• Poorly chosen, they cause serious malfunctions
• Their choice is a critical determinant of the
behavior of a system
(D. Meadows 98)
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
2. The nature of indicators
March 2006
For sustainability indicators, time is an important
element.
But since long term monitoring takes more time
and resources than are usually available, need
surrogates for sustainability and time (for example,
soil nutrient levels may indicate if soil has being
well cared for in the past, or mined).
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
2. The nature of indicators
March 2006
Purposes/utility includes:
•
•
•
•
•
Management tools
Research Tools
Educational and motivational use
Project assessment
Planning and policy instruments
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
2. The nature of indicators
March 2006
Ideally, indicators should be simple and well understood (as
with body temperature and health)
Unlikely that sustainable agriculture can be captured in one
simple indicator.
? Should sustainable agriculture indicators be made up of:
• One combined indicators (may be highly influenced by
what is included)
-or• A set of indicators (people are unlikely to study a whole set,
many audiences only have time for a simple index)
In either case, raw data used to derive indicators MUST be
open and available to those who wish to examine the
subsequent process of data treatment.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
2. The nature of indicators
Types of Indicators:
• Pressure (or stress)
• State (or composition)
• Response
• Why
• How
• What
• Past
• Present
• Future
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
2. The nature of indicators
An example
• Pressure (or stress), why, past:
the rate of extraction of groundwater
• State (or composition), how, present:
the current level of groundwater
• Response, what, future:
what is being done to mitigate over-extraction
All three are needed to tell the complete story!
(G. VanLoon et al, 2005)
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
2. The nature of indicators
March 2006
Another important typology of indicators:
(none of these alone can give the complete picture;
sustainability should always be considered in light
of these three legs)
1. Environmental
2. Economic
3. Social
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
3. Process of sustainability assessment
March 2006
A. Agricultural sustainability must be defined by
stakeholders.
The identification of stakeholders, in turn,
QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture.
is determined
by the boundaries of the system.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
3. Process of sustainability assessment
March 2006
A. con’t. Narrow definition of Agricultural production
systems (fields and farms)
Wider production systems (included food and nonfood -biofuel, pharma, flowers, carbonsequestration systems, and the production chain
to consumers)
…the drivers for sustainability assessment include
investors, private sector and consumers..this
boundary is more appropriate.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
3. Process of sustainability assessment
March 2006
A. con’t. The broader stakeholder group should
define sustainability, and appropriate goals
/targets.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
3. Process of sustainability assessment
March 2006
B. Research and stakeholder dialogue should
identify the criteria and indicators of
sustainability goals
C. Data on indicators should be collected to show
progress toward sustainability goals, and this
shared with policy makers
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
3. Process of sustainability assessment
March 2006
D. Policy makers should make decisions and
policies to reorient toward greater
sustainability, based on assessment and
research findings.
E. Policies must be implemented and enforced
(governance issues)
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
4. Issues and Challenges to Design Indicators for
the Developing Countries
Life Cycle
materials:
Food system
mass flow
The complexity of
system
boundaries in a
developed
country, as a
point of
comparison…Inp
uts and outputs
to agriculture in
the United States
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
4. Issues and Challenges to Design Indicators for
the Developing Countries
Comparison with Kenya
Life Cycle
materials:
Food
system
mass flow
Export animals
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
5. Possible Framework for Developing Indicators,
Using Kenya and the US as Test Cases
March 2006
Stakeholders: Farmers, breeders, seed companies
Life cycle stage: Origin of resource -seed or production breeding
KENYA
economic
degree of farmer control over
seed/breed
indicators
social
diversity in seed purchasing and seed
collecting
80% of seeds are farmer seedbut they are often low-yielding
farmers have access to a wide
56% of maize planted in Kenya is
diversity of land races and local breeds hybrid maize
environment
ratio of naturally pollinated to
hybrid seed
US
economic
degree of farmer control over
seed/breed
100% of seeds are commercial;
high yielding but require high
inuts
indicators
social
diversity in seed purchasing and seed
collecting
farmers have no access to diversity of
seeds and breeds
100% of maize is hybrid
(modified after M.C. Heller & G.A. Keoleian, 2000)
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
environment
ratio of naturally pollinated to
hybrid seed
5. Possible Framework for Developing Indicators,
Using Kenya and the US as Test Cases
March 2006
Stakeholders: Farmers, farm workers, ag industry, gov, animals
Life cycle stage: Production
KENYA
economic
return on investment; farmer
savings; employment; level of
government support
off-farm income is often key to
prosperity, ability to invest onfarm and savings; little
government support
environment
rate of conversion of land to
Ø age of farmers, size of farms, active agriculture, rate of soil loss,
agrarian community, time animals
chemical pollution, pest and
spend outdoors
disease losses
Ø age of farmers is 37; Ø farm size is
less than two hectares; agrarian
communities are very active and
forests being "grabbed" illegally,
important to Kenyans, animals spend 13 tons per hectare per year;
most of their time, if not 100% out of rising levels of chemical pollution,
doors
v. large pest and disease losses
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
indicators
social
5. Possible Framework for Developing Indicators,
Using Kenya and the US as Test Cases
March 2006
Stakeholders: Farmers, farm workers, ag industry, government
Life cycle stage: Production
US
economic
return on investment; farmer
savings; employment; level of
government support
84% of farm household income is
earned off-farm; 48% of farms
report a net loss; government
support is mixed
indicators
social
environment
Ø age of farmers, size of farms, active rate of land conversion, rate of
agrarian community, time animals
soil loss, chemical pollution, pest
spend outdoors
and disease losses
Ø age of farmers is 55; Ø farm size is
443 acres; more people live in cities
than in rural areas, animals often
confined
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
agricultural land is rapidly being
converted to urban land, 90% of
US farms are losing soil above the
sustainability rate but not as high
as Asia, Africa and Latin America;
pesticide use slowly going down
while herbicide use going up,
5. Possible Framework for Developing Indicators,
Using Kenya and the US as Test Cases
March 2006
Stakeholders: Consumers, health professionals
Life cycle stage: consumption
Kenya
indicators
social
economic
environment
portion of consumer income spent
on food
rates of malnutrition; rates of obesity; energy use in preparation, waste,
healthiness of diet; product quality
recycling
31% of income spent on food (
but in many places, more than
50% are below the poverty line)
average rates of stunting, wasting and
underweight among children in 8
little energy use in preparation,
districts are 37%, 6% and 27%
little waste
US
indicators
social
economic
portion of consumer income spent
on food
Marketing is 80% of food bill;
Industry consolidation threatenes
market competition
rates of malnutrition; rates of obesity; energy use in preparation, waste,
healthiness of diet; product quality
recycling
73 units of energy used to
produce 1 unit of food; 26% of
obesity rates rising
edible food wasted
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
environment
6. Conclusion
March 2006
• Agricultural sustainability will make measurable progress only
with a set of reliable and representative indicators that reflect a
holistic view of the food system, rather than just the production
component
• Serious research and stakeholder consultations will have to
take place to design and develop indicators that are based on
good science and stakeholder consensus
• In addition to the above, awareness and human resource
capacity will have to be developed
• One should also make sure to fully assess the risks and
benefits of using indicators
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren
March 2006
You cannot solve the problem with the
same kind of thinking that created the
problem
Albert Einstein
Thank you…..
Indicator and Assessment Systems
Hans R. Herren