***Mapping Aff***
1AC
Advantage (_)—Methane Release
1. Risk of drilling accident will only increase with expanded deep-sea drilling—
mapping ocean floor key to detect potential hydrate deposits
Hovland & Gudmestad 01—Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of
Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [“Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabead
installations,” Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 307-308] // AG
Extensive petroleum exploration and development efforts are presently occurring in deep waters
where gas hydrates can form. The chances of encountering gas hydrates at the sea floor and within
the upper sedimentary layers will only increase as the petroleum industry moves further into
deeper waters: off Brasil, in the Gulf of Mexico, off NE Europe, West Africa, and Japan. Petroleum
exploration and production involves operations that significantly alter ambient sub-surface
conditions. Of particular concern in relation to the occurrence of gas hydrates are disruptions
caused by vibrations and pressure gradients as well as temperature increases. Because of this, the
presence of gas hydrates may be considered to represent a geohazard for offshore hydrocarbon
exploration and exploitation. Also the concern for initiating the development of gas hydrates on or
around wellheads and other structures is a major concern.
Although the offshore hydrocarbon industry has experienced numerous setbacks and mishaps because of
gas hydrates forming inside production wells and flowlines and topside piping (Gjertsen et al., 1997;
Austvik et al., 1997), hydrates. Even so, this paper aims at providing a review of the current knowledge
and particularly focusing the aspects of concern to the petroleum industry concerning in-situ gas hydrates.
At water depths and sediment depths within the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), gas hydrates form
when light hydrocarbons (methane, ethane, propane, butane), or other non-hydrocarbon gases (including
C02 and H2S) common in hydrocarbon-bearing regions are present in adequate concentrations. Of
concern to the industry is that gas hydrates may form rapidly when appropriate gases leak into the
sediments or water column from below. Furthermore, gas hydrates may dissociate rapidly when
disturbed by heating or de-pressurization
The ideal assessment of a potential drilling site or deepwater construction site, including potential
pipeline routes, therefore, has to include an evaluation of the possible presence and formation of gas
hydrates. However, as many oil companies and academic institutions have already experienced, such an
assessment is very difficult to perform, even after having employed dedicated drilling and sediment
sampling (Hovland et al., 1999). In such an assessment it is clear that all the available indicators of
gas hydrate formation and dissociation in the environment needs to be used, including indirect
means. These include interpretation of seismic, sonar, and topographic features, as well as direct
ground-truthing means, such as visual observation and seabed sampling (MacDonald et al., 1994;
Borowski and Paull, 1997; Paull, 1997; Hovland et al., 1997; Dillon et al., 1998; Bouriak et al., 1999;
Clennell et al., 1999; Orange et al., 1999; Prior and Hooper, 1999; Suess et al., 1999; Torres et al., 1999;
Vogt et al., 1999; Xu and Ruppel, 1999). An assessment of potential gas hydrates should also go hand-inhand with laboratory work and a theoretical consideration and analysis (Clennell et al., 1999; Austvik et
al., 2000).
2. Mapping hydrates key to prevent well blow outs and methane release
Weitemeyer et al 11—Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San
Diego. [“A marine electromagnetic survey to detect gas hydrate at Hydrate Ridge, Oregon,” K. A.
Weitemeyer, S. Constable, and A. M. Trehu, Geophysics Journal International, Volume 187, 2011, pp
45-62, accessed from Emory] // AG
Natural gas hydrate, a type of clathrate, is an ice-like solid that consists of a gas molecule, typically
methane, encaged by a water lattice (Sloan 1990). Methane hydrates are found worldwide in marine and
permafrost regions where the correct thermobaric conditions exist and sufficient water and gas molecules
are available (Sloan 1990; Kvenvolden 2003). The quantity and distribution of gas hydrate in
sediments is important because of its potential as an energy resource (Moridis & Sloan 2007) and as
a trigger for slope instability (Mienert et al. 2005; Nixon & Grozic 2007; Paull et al. 2007; Sultan et al.
2004; Smith et al. 2004; Field & Barber 1993), which may threaten seafloor infrastructure
(Kvenvolden 2000; Hovland & Gudmestad 2001). As more deep drilling and production operations are
carried out within the thermodynamic stability conditions for hydrate (Dawe & Thomas 2007) the
consequences of drilling into hydrate sediments will become a bigger threat, since drilling and
production fluids can cause hydrate to dissociate and cause wells to blow out (Ostergaard et al.
2000).
Seismic data alone are often insufficient for accurately resolving the amount of gas hydrate in
sediments. One seismic signature often associated with gas hydrate occurrence is a bottom
simulating reflector (BSR), which typically marks the phase change of solid hydrate above and free
gas below the BSR (Shipley et al. 1979). However, the BSR may not indicate the existence of
hydrate , as was observed on DSDP Leg 84 site 496 and site 596 (Sloan 1990, p. 424; Sloan & Koh
2007, p. 575). In fact, it requires very little gas to form a strong seismic reflector (Domenico 1977). Other
types of seismic signatures have been noted at Blake Ridge by Hornback et al. (2003) and Gorman et al.
(2002), such as a fossil BSR, seismic blanking and seismic bright spots. While seismic methods are often
able to detect the lower stratigraphic bound of hydrate, the diffuse upper bound is not well imaged and
there is often no seismic reflectivity signature from within the hydrate region.
Hydrate is electrically resistive compared to the surrounding water saturated sediments
(Collett&Ladd 2000), which provides a target for marine electromagnetic (EM) methods. Marine
EM methods can be used to image the bulk resistivity structure of the subsurface and are able to
augment seismic data to provide valuable information about gas hydrate distribution in the marine
environment (Edwards 1997; Yuan & Edwards 2000).
3. Rapid methane release causes extinction—distinct from slow release which is
oxidized
Ryskin 03—Department of Chemical Engineering at Northwestern University. [“Methane-driven
oceanic eruptions and mass extinctions,” Gregory Ryskin, Geology, Volume 31, Number 9, September
2003, p742, accessed from Emory] // AG
OCEANIC ERUPTION AS A CAUSE OF MASS EXTINCTION
The consequences of a methane-driven oceanic eruption for marine and terrestrial life are likely to
be catastrophic. Figuratively speaking, the erupting region ‘‘boils over,’’ ejecting a large amount of
methane and other gases (e.g., CO2, H2S) into the atmosphere, and flooding large areas of land.
Whereas pure methane is lighter than air, methane loaded with water droplets is much heavier, and thus
spreads over the land, mixing with air in the process (and losing water as rain). The airmethane mixture is
explosive at methane concentrations between 5% and 15%; as such mixtures form in different locations
near the ground and are ignited by lightning, explosions2 and conflagrations destroy most of the
terrestrial life, and also produce great amounts of smoke and of carbon dioxide. Firestorms carry
smoke and dust into the upper atmosphere, where they may remain for several years (Turco et al.,
1991); the resulting darkness and global cooling may provide an additional kill mechanism.
Conversely, carbon dioxide and the remaining methane create the greenhouse effect, which may lead to
global warming. The outcome of the competition between the cooling and the warming tendencies is
difficult to predict (Turco et al., 1991; Pierrehumbert, 2002).
Upon release of a significant portion of the dissolved methane, the ocean settles down, and the
entire sequence of events (i.e., development of anoxia, accumulation of dissolved methane, the
metastable state, eruption) begins anew. No external cause is required to bring about a methane-driven
eruption—its mechanism is self-contained, and implies that eruptions are likely to occur repeatedly at the
same location.
Because methane is isotopically light, its fast release must result in a negative carbon isotope
excursion in the geological record. Knowing the magnitude of the excursion, one can estimate the
amount of methane that could have produced it. Such calculations (prompted by the methane-hydratedissociation model, but equally applicable here) have been performed for several global events in the
geological record; the results range from ;1018 to 1019 g of released methane (e.g., Katz et al., 1999;
Kennedy et al., 2001; de Wit et al., 2002). These are very large amounts: the total carbon content of
today’s terrestrial biomass is ;2 3 1018 g. Nevertheless, relatively small regions of the deep ocean could
contain such amounts of dissolved methane; e.g., the Black Sea alone (volume ;0.4 3 1023 of the ocean
total; maximum depth only 2.2 km) could hold, at saturation, ;0.5 3 1018 g. A similar region of the deep
ocean could contain much more (the amount grows quadratically with depth3). Released in a geological
instant (weeks, perhaps), 1018 to 1019 g of methane could destroy the terrestrial life almost entirely.
Combustion and explosion of 0.75 3 1019 g of methane would liberate energy equivalent to 108 Mt
of TNT, ;10,000 times greater than the world’s stockpile of nuclear weapons , implicated in the
nuclearwinter scenario (Turco et al., 1991).
4. Extinction is empirically proven from hydrates—the Permian extinction
Benton & Twitchett 03—Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol. [“How to kill
(almost) all life: the end-Permian extinction event,” Michael J. Benton and Richard J. Twitchett, Trends
in Ecology and Evolution, Volume 13, Number 7, July 2003, pp 362, accessed through Emory] // AG
Not only must this new source of 12C be identified, but that source must also be capable of overwhelming
normal atmospheric feedback systems. The only option so far identified is the methane released from
gas hydrates (Box 3), an idea that has been accepted with alacrity [21,23,24,31].
The assumption is that initial global warming at the PTr boundary, triggered by the huge Siberian
eruptions, melted frozen gas hydrate bodies, and massive volumes of methane rich in 12C rose to
the surface of the oceans in huge bubbles. This vast input of methane into the atmosphere caused
more warming, which could have melted further gas hydrate reservoirs. The process continued in a
positive feedback spiral that has been termed the ‘runaway greenhouse’ phenomenon. Some sort of
threshold was probably reached, which was beyond where the natural systems that normally reduce
carbon dioxide levels could operate effectively. The system spiralled out of control, leading to the
biggest crash in the history of life.
5. US federal commitment key to mapping and development—need to overcome fear
from Deepwater spill
Boswell 11—PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [“Paper #1-11 METHANE
HYDRATES,” Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document of
the North American Resource Development Study, 2011, pp 19-20, accessed through Emory] // AG
V Conclusions and Summary
Though significant challenges remain in realizing commercial production from gas hydrate-bearing
formations, recent gas hydrate research accomplishments have been significant. We know much more
about the geophysical response, petrophysical properties, and potential productivity of gas hydrate
reservoirs than we did just a few years ago. The 2007/2008 Mallik test results, while not yet public in full
detail, clearly indicate technically-viable productivity and were sufficient to enable Japan to move ahead
with plans for production testing in the marine environment. In the U.S., there is a strong industry, state,
and federal interest in pursuing the needed long-term production tests in Alaska, with separate tests
of depressurization and CO2-CH4 exchange poised for execution. For the Gulf of Mexico, we have the
first estimates of the potentially recoverable portion of the total in-place resource, and drilling
conducted in 2009 confirmed the expected existence of high-concentration gas hydrate at two of
three sites drilled. The Alaska and Gulf of Mexico drilling results also appear to validate current
approaches to gas hydrate exploration, indicating that existing concepts and approaches can be
effectively employed. The maturation of numerical simulators, their ability to now more rigorously
include natural variation in reservoir properties, and the incorporation of field data into production
scenarios has yielded increasingly rigorous and encouraging production predictions. Spurred by
international expeditions, there is also a new appreciation of the potential abundance of concentrated gas
hydrate in fractured mud occurrences and initial efforts to assess these accumulations are underway.
Lastly, the first steps toward integrating gas hydrate science into numerical models of global
carbon cycling and the global climate are in progress.
With respect to U.S. gas hydrate resources, it is possible that repercussions of the April 2010
Deepwater Horizon tragedy will impact the presently anticipated pace of research and development
due to increased costs and complexity of permitting and conductance of deepwater operations, as
well as other factors. Setting those possibilities aside, a near-term focus for domestic marine gas
hydrate R&D will be the further characterization of recently confirmed Gulf of Mexico reservoirs
and associated seals through pressure-coring operations. These sites will also likely be the focus of
expanded geochemical and geophysical investigations to further refine the tools applicable to pre-drill
assessment and characterization of gas hydrate prospects. A program of marine production testing will
ultimately be required. Marine geophysical programs to identify high potential regions within the US
OCS outside the Gulf of Mexico will also be needed. The most promising areas will then require
evaluation via multi-well drilling, logging, and coring expeditions.
Additional long-term testing programs, building upon the findings of the initial tests, extending
findings to other geologic settings, and/or refining stimulation methods and well design, will likely
be needed. A final multi-well pilot test will also likely be needed, and could occur in Alaska before 2020.
Assuming success of near-term efforts in Alaska, a production test program could be envisioned for
the Gulf of Mexico within the decade, with a second test required shortly after, resulting in
improved assessment of the possible scale of marine hydrate technical and commercial
recoverability by 2025. Such marine testing programs will require a strong national commitment.
Advantage (_)—Peak Oil
1. Natural gas reserves will soon be depleted—1% of US hydrate reserves will meet
our energy demands for the next eight decades.
Naidoo et al. 11 [Amir H. Mohammadi, Dominique Richon - MINES ParisTech, CEP/TEP – Centre Énergétique et Procédés;
Paramespri Naidoo, Deresh Ramjugernath - Thermodynamics Research Unit, School of Chemical Engineering, University of KwaZulu-Natal;
“Application of gas hydrate formation in separation processes: A review of experimental studies”, 10/14/11, Elsevier]
Natural reserves of gas hydrates in the earth can be used as a gas/natural gas supply by providing
the increasing amounts of energy needed by the world economy. The estimated amount of methane
in situ gas reserves is approximately 10^16 cubic meters [36,37]. Furthermore, there are estimations
showing that there are more organic carbon reserves present globally as methane hydrates than all
other forms of fossil fuels [38]. It is currently believed that if only about 1% of the estimated
reserves of methane from methane hydrate reserves are recovered, it may be enough for the United
States to satisfy its energy demands for the next eight decades [39]. There are generally three
methods of methane production form these hydrate reserves: 1. Pressure reduction in the reservoirs
to conditions below the gas hydrate equilibrium pressure; 2. Increasing the temperature of the
reservoir by heating up to a temperature above that needed for equilibrium (or hydrate dissociation
temperature); 3. Addition of alternate gases or inhibitors such as CO2 or methanol which would
replace methane within the hydrate structures or change the stability conditions of the
corresponding hydrates [40]. Although methane/natural gas has not yet been produced from gas hydrate
reserves on a commercial scale and also interestingly it has not been included in the EPPA model in
MITEI’s Future of Natural Gas report, it is still considered as a promising approach which should
begin to be exploited within the next 15 years, mainly due to the fact that conventional natural gas
reservoirs are being depleted very rapidly [41]. Detailed experimental and theoretical studies (e.g.
thermodynamic and kinetic models, effects of the physical parameters on the gas hydrate reservoirs,
exploitation of the reserves, methods of gas recovery, economical study of the process of extraction of
methane/natural gas from gas hydrate reserves) have been well-established in the literature [38–86].
2. Mapping the ocean floor advances hydrate energy development
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 14,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Of the scientific drilling programs considered in this Science Plan, the
community concluded that the first priority would be
an expedition targeting the methane hydrate reservoirs in the Gulf of Mexico. The second priority would be a
drilling program along the U.S. Atlantic margin. It was also concluded that critical new developments in drilling and measurement
technologies are needed to advance the goals and contributions of methane hydrate related scientific drilling opportunities. The use of
specialty drilling systems and technologies, such as pressure core systems, downhole measurement tools, borehole instrumentation, advanced wireline logging, and
logging‐while‐drilling, should be continued and expanded. In the end, the appreciation of the contributions scientific drilling makes to our
understanding
of methane hydrates in nature and as potential energy resource, geohazard, or contributor to global climate change
depends on the ability of the research community to communicate the knowledge to the public.
3. Peak oil has been briefly placed on the backburner. However, if we do not use
this time wisely we will face a supply crunch and social collapse
Foss 12 - Co-editor of The Automatic Earth [Nicole Foss, “The Guardian Is Ignoring The Critical
Paradox Of Peak Oil,” The Automatic Earth | Jul. 9, 2012, 1:56 PM pg:
http://theautomaticearth.org/Energy/peak-oil-a-dialogue-with-george-monbiot.html#ixzz20HZlJfhx
I sent George a short response to his article, by way of opening a dialogue:
What we are facing is a demand and price collapse that will render unconventional supplies
uneconomic. Natural gas is leading the way over the next few years. The high cost and low EROEI are fatal flaws.
And received this reply:
If there's a collapse in demand, peak oil is not an issue, right? If there's a resurgence of demand, unconventionals become economic again. As for
EROEI being a constraint, try telling that to the tar sands producers in Alberta.
With best wishes,
George
The debate continues. Here is my next installment:
A demand collapse will certainly put peak oil on the backburner for a number of years. The next few years will be
remembered for financial crisis as we move into what will be at least as bad as the Great Depression (and very likely worse, since the bubble was
much larger this time). Peak
oil will not have gone away, however.
We have used the cheap and accessible oil (and other fossil fuels) and what remains will be exceptionally,
and increasingly, expensive in both financial and energy terms. Predictable consequences will
follow from this, but in a complex interaction with many other factors, notably the context of the huge credit bubble
bursting . This amounts to crashing the operating system. For a while, resource constraints will be
relieved due to economic seizure (i.e. the collapse of both the money supply and the velocity of
money).
During the period of financial crisis, deflation and deleveraging, weak
demand will buy us some time, but at the cost of
setting us up for a supply crunch later . The period of sharply falling prices will kill investment in
the energy sector, because the cost of production will fall less quickly than prices, meaning margins
will be squeezed. Both physical and financial risks will be much higher. A lack of economic visibility will be
anathema to what are inherently long term projects.
In addition, trade collapses during periods of economic depression, as for instance letters of credit become impossible to
obtain, and the lack of funds for maintenance compromises the integrity of distribution infrastructure.
Infrastructure may also be deliberately targeted during the inevitable upheaval . All of these factors act
to reduce supply, and would be difficult, or impossible, to reverse quickly if demand were to rise.
When supply and demand become tight, what transpires is not a simple price spike, but an exaggerated
boom and bust dynamic. This has been underway since 2005/06. The first full cycle unfolded from 2005/06 to 2008. The second
began in 2008/09 and will probably end with a price bottom relatively early in this depression with a resurgence of military demand, given that
oil is liquid hegemonic power.
That should feed into the third cycle, which should send prices sharply higher in real terms, if not to a new high in nominal terms. This
price volatility, against a backdrop of severe economic contraction, upheaval and fear is leading towards a profound societal change, most likely
a significant period of involuntary loss of socioeconomic complexity .
You mention the tar sands, and they are indeed an interesting case - an arbitrage between cheap natural gas and expensive syncrude that can
continue while the price disparity is maintained. They are able to make money, even though they are not producing much net energy.
Unfortunately for the tar sands producers, the price disparity is set to reverse.
The hype surrounding shale gas has crashed the price to the point where it is on the verge of putting producers out of business. Natural gas in
North America appears to have bottomed, while the perception of glut in unconventional oil, combined with weak demand and a lack of
appropriate infrastructure for internal North American sources, is set to undermine oil prices considerably.
Tar sands projects will be under acute threat under those circumstances - not imminently, but over the next five years or so. Once one cannot
make money from some combination of artificial input/output price disparity, public subsidy and the ability to socialize externalties, then EROEI
becomes the defining factor, and the EROEI for tar sands is pathetic.
While I agree that oil men do not base decisions on EROEI, ultimately EROEI will determine their ability to make money, and that is their
driving motivation. Finance can only temporarily allow people to ignore thermodynamics.
EROEI effectively determines what is and is not an energy source for a given society (ie to maintain a given level of socioeconomic
complexity). Unconventional
fossil fuels are caught in a paradox - that their EROEI is too low for them
to sustain a society complex enough to produced them.
They can only be produced for the relatively short period of time that the complex society built on conventional sources continues to maintain its
current capacities, but as
the conventional sources disappear, and that society can no longer support itself, the ability to
undertake all the activities required for unconventional production will be lost . The hype has no
foundation.
We have been living in a major departure from reality in many ways, as always occurs during bubble
times, but those times are coming to an end. Instead of overshoot, we are headed for undershoot,
and we are not going to like it.
Note the critical paradox of unconventional supplies. That is where the cornucopian view of energy, where Monbiot now seems to have landed,
breaks down.
The same argument applies to renewable power as it is currently practiced. Without
affordable conventional fossil fuels, the
increasingly complex alternatives cannot be developed and exploited.
We find ourselves in a world of receding horizons.
Unconventional supplies are always priced at conventional energy plus a premium, thanks to their crucial dependency on conventional supplies.
What high Energy Return On Energy Investment makes possible, low EROEI will eventually take away,
following a brief boom that constitutes the last gasp of our modern energy bubble era.
4. Credit crunch makes all of their DA impacts inevitable
Tverberg 09 – Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society & Member of the American Academy of
Actuaries [Gail E. Tverberg (MS in Mathematics from the University of Illinois), “Where Is Oil
Production Headed?: An Adverse Scenario ,” The Oil Drum, 4mar2009, pg.
http://www.mindfully.org/Energy/2009/Oil-Production-Scenario4mar09.htm
With all of the debt defaults, and the inability to settle all of the debts equitably, some sort of debt jubilee may be necessary. This may start with
some small countries, like Iceland and perhaps the Ukraine defaulting on their debts. Gradually
more and more countries will
default, and their currencies will sink lower and lower.
After a certain point, it may become clear that virtually every economy in the world is in this mess together. There
will be no way that
more debt can be issued as "stimulus" to get the world out of this problem. The only thing that can be done is
to start canceling debt, in some sort of debt jubilee, and to start over.
The problem with a debt jubilee is that there would be many too many claimants for many of the world's assets. If a wind turbine owner's debt is
cancelled through a debt jubilee, who then "owns" the turbine—the original owner, or the lender whose debt was cancelled? If the debt of a
factory making replacement parts for a wind turbine is cancelled, who runs the factory—the original owner of the factory, or the investor whose
debt was cancelled?
The debts that are cancelled are likely to cross country borders, making for international disputes . Furthermore,
countries may want to retaliate for a loss of one of their overseas investments by grabbing a business
located in its own country that has overseas owners. In not very long, relationships among countries are likely
to sink to deteriorate, and international trade will be at much lower levels than in the past. War may even
break out,
"Demand"
or border disputes.
will be at new low levels, because there is likely to be very little cross-border trade, except
with a few trusted partners. Without this trade, it will not be possible to manufacture goods, other than those using only
local products. In this kind of scenario, prices (to the extent the monetary system continues to function) would continue to be very low, because
of the low demand. (A factory that is not operating doesn't need raw materials!)
The credit market would be close to non-existent , because creditors will expect that any debt that is
issued could easily be cancelled. New investment would be limited to what can be financed by cash flow. With low
prices, this cash flow would be very low, further limiting investment.
It is possible that in some parts of the world, the monetary system will cease to function all
become necessary. Because barter is so cumbersome, this is likely to have a further limiting impact on trade.
together, and barter would
oil production would be significantly lower than the physical resource available. If
nothing else, it will be difficult for the whole chain from local production to pipeline to refinery to distribution pipeline
to consumer to function properly. Countries that previously exported oil overseas will see that their chances of
getting paid are less than 100%, and may reduce their production to match what they can sell through arrangements with trusted
In such a scenario, I would expect that
parties.
Production of many other goods may decline as well, as
the lack of an adequately functioning monetary system
limits the ability of long supply lines to function properly. Natural gas and coal production may decline, as well as oil
production. Food through mechanized farming may decline, as Liebig's Law of the Minimum makes itself known.
On Figure 2, I show only a slight decline in production in 2009, but then large decreases in 2010, 2011, and 2012 to a level not much above 20
million barrels a day. If it reaches such a low level, due to a widespread failure of the financial system ,
I would expect electricity to
be affected in many locations, and because of electricity, water and sewer systems. Some large cities
may become uninhabitable .
Under such a scenario, I expect all of this would take a while to get sorted out. If there is a widespread failure of the monetary system, it is
possible that many
governments would be replaced. Some countries may fall to pieces, in the manner of
the Soviet Union after its collapse in 1991. Governments may not have much faith in other governments—except perhaps with a few
trusted trade /strategic partners. New monetary systems will likely be put in place, but many will not be any
better than the previous ones, so bubbles and further collapses may occur .
In such an environment, international
businesses will find it virtually impossible to survive. Businesses are likely
become much smaller and more local. As I have shown on Figure 2, it may be many years before oil production begins to rise again. In
fact, it may never rise again, if international trade stays at a low level .
I would expect that the renaissance, when it comes, would begin with basic human needs, in local communities and local agriculture. People will
grow their own food, and trade with others in their community. There will be small shops that make shoes and clothing and cooking utensils.
People may begin to raise animals for transportation.
People will still need energy for heating their homes and for cooking. The initial impulse will be to cut down trees
for these purposes, but with the world's large population, this will tend to produce deforestation . Neoenvironmentalists may urge people to use other products for this purpose—such as coal or oil, if these can be obtained. There may be some local
electricity produced, particularly water generated, if transmission systems can be kept in good enough repair.
If this scenario happens, it
is difficult for me to see much of a future for large complex systems that require specialized parts
turbines to fall into disrepair in a few years, and solar PV panels to be
very difficult to obtain, after such a crash scenario. Smaller windmills, similar to what a person sees on old farms, may come
back into popular use, as may coal operated steam engines (at least in the US, where coal is still plentiful).
from around the world. Thus, I would expect large wind
If you have been following the interconnected threads of what is occurring in our system, you are aware that the above scenario
is at least a
possibility. Due to the complexities involved, it is impossible to estimate a percentage likelihood of this particular trajectory, but the
odds are increasing
of something like it.
5. We transform the debate about energy security. Tech – not war – will be seen as
the solution
Sovacool 07 – Research Fellow for the Energy Governance Program @ National University of
Singapore [Benjamin K. Sovacool (Professor of International Affairs @ Virginia Tech University),
“Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?,” Energy Policy Volume 35, Issue 11, November
2007, Pages 5505-5514//ScienceDirect]
The point, however, is that achieving
oil independence for the US is possible, and foreign policy is not the only pathway.
The US can accomplish oil independence through robust and coordinated domestic energy policy. To insulate the
American economy from the vagaries of the world oil market, policymakers need not focus only on geopolitical power structures in oil
producing states. Instead, attempts to change the behavior of the country's automobile drivers, industrial
leaders, and homeowners could greatly minimize reliance on foreign supplies of oil . To battle the
“oil problem” policymakers need not talk only about sending more troops to Iraq or Saudi Arabia nor drafting new
contracts with Nigeria and Russia. They could also focus on curbing American demand for oil and expanding
domestic conventional and alternative supplies.
The debate over whether oil independence can be achieved for the US continues only because those making the
policy continue to believe it cannot be achieved. The key to implementing a strategy of oil
independence is more a matter of managing the interdependence of technologies available to reduce oil
demand and increase supply, rather than trying to establish the independence of the United States from foreign supplies of oil (Grumet, 2006).
Once such interdependence is recognized and synergistically pursued, the country can achieve oil
independence. The only remaining questions are how and whether the benefits outweigh the costs.
6. The end result is extinction
Manteau-Rao 08 - Master of Engineering from Ecole Centrale de Paris [Marguerite Manteau-Rao,
(MBA from the University of Chicago) “David Holmgren’s Energy Future Scenarios,” La Marguerite,
May 27, 2008, pg. http://lamarguerite.wordpress.com/2008/05/27/david-holmgrens-energy-futurescenarios/]
Collapse suggests a failure of the whole range of interlocked systems that maintain and support industrial
society as high quality fossil fuels are depleted and/or climate change radically damages the ecological support systems.
This collapse would be fast and more or less continuous without the restabilisations possible in Energy Descent.
It would inevitably involve a major “die-off” of human population and a loss of the knowledge and
infrastructure necessary for industrial civilization if not more severe scenarios including human
extinction along with much of the planet’s biodiversity.
7. Plan solves—mapping hydrates overcomes current drilling impediments allowing
for safe drilling
Weitemeyer 08—Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San
Diego. [“Marine Electromagnetic Methods for Gas Hydrate Characterization,” Weitemeyer, Karen A,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 11/24/2008, pp 6-8] // AG
The large stores of concentrated methane found in hydrate (1 volume of hydrate contains 164
volumes of methane gas at STP) has led many countries to view hydrate as a potential energy
resource, especially countries without conventional hydrocarbon resources and countries which import
energy, such as Japan, China, India, and the USA (Koh and Sloan, 2007; Milkov and Sassen, 2002; Max
et al., 2006; Dawe and Thomas, 2007). Concentrated accumulations of hydrate may be the target for
mineral resource exploitation; however finding and locating subsurface structures of this type may
be difficult or even impossible with conventional seismic methods (Kleinberg, 2006).
Electromagnetic methods maybe preferable to seismic methods because the resistivity contrast is
highly sensitive to the concentration as well as the geometric distribution of hydrate.
High abundances of hydrate have significant implications for the global carbon cycle (Dickens,
2003). Perturbations of the stability conditions of hydrate could cause the catastrophic release of
methane (a significant greenhouse gas), which may have contributed to past climate change (Kennett
et al., 2003; Kvenvolden, 1993b). However, it is the chronic release of hydrate, currently taking place
in Arctic regions, that is more likely to be a significant contributor to future climate change and has
been associated with past climate change. For example, the carbon isotopic excursion at the end of the
Paleocene is possibly from hydrate (Archer, 2007; Archer and Buffett, 2005; Dickens, 2001). Some
studies also suggest that climate change will, in turn, affect hydrate deposits worldwide (Fyke and
Weaver, 2006).
Immediate interest in gas hydrate arises from the potential geohazard posed by drilling into and
through hydrate, and slope instability (Mienert et al., 2005; Nixon and Grozic, 2007), which may
threaten seafloor infrastructure (Kven7 volden, 2000; Hovland and Gudmestad, 2001). As deep sea
exploration becomes more common, the threat of drilling into hydrate sediments will become a
more significant problem, because more drilling and production operations will be within the
thermodynamic stability conditions for hydrate (Dawe and Thomas, 2007). Warm drilling fluids can
cause pre-existing hydrate to dissociate; this can cause gas to build up and cause blow-outs of wells.
Melted hydrate may also cause sediments to become loose slurries and provide little or no
structural support, leading to tubing collapse or seafloor instability. Additional hazards while drilling
may result from the formation of gas hydrate in the event of a kick – when hydrocarbon flows into the
well bore from the reservoir – causing serious well safety, operational, and control problems (Ostergaard
et al., 2000).
Slope failure due to hydrate dissociation has been implicated in the Storrega slide offshore Norway
(Paull et al., 2007; Sultan et al., 2004) and may have released enough sediment to generate a tsunami
(Smith et al., 2004). Similarly, hydrates are implicated as one of many possible factors for the Humboldt
slide off the coast of California, where decaying gas hydrate released methane gas in the bubble phase,
increasing the pore water pressure and decreasing the effective strength of the sediment, and thereby
reducing the stability of the slope (Field and Barber, 1993).
A developing interest in hydrate is to use carbon dioxide (CO2) hydrate as an aid to carbon sequestration
in the deep oceans (Lee et al., 2003). Carbon dioxide would be injected into the sediments and the
formation of CO2 hydrate would create a natural barrier to the release of carbon dioxide stored beneath
the hydrate (Lee et al., 2003). It will be necessary to develop long-term non-invasive monitoring
techniques of hydrate formation during ocean carbon sequestration. The economic and
environmental uses for hydrate, and the geohazards posed by it, all make mapping the extent and
distribution of hydrate important.
8. Burning hydrates better than release from the ocean—emits less carbon than
fossil fuels
Döpke & Requate 14—Lena-Katharina, and Till Requate, 2014, [The economics of exploiting gas
hydrates] Energy Economics, Volume 42, March 2014, Pages 355–364
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002430
Due to slow response times of deep ocean temperatures to surface temperatures (100–1000 years),
CH4 is mostly released
chronically from deeper ocean deposits. Accordingly, CH4 does not reach the atmosphere as methane but oxidizes in the ocean
to CO2 (Archer, 2007). Only in the case of catastrophic blowouts CH4 is capable of reaching the atmosphere. By contrast, methane hydrate
deposits on the shallow arctic shelf and hydrates widespread in the permafrost regions are more vulnerable to temperature change. Hence, in these
areas there have been observations of CH4 being released into the atmosphere. For this reason, (Max, 2003) propose cautious “preventive
exploitation” of dissolving methane hydrates to mitigate the escape of CH4 into the atmosphere and its impact on climate.
Currently, geoscientists and engineers all over the world are engaging in research activities geared
to extracting methane from gas hydrates in a cost-efficient way and avoiding too much methane
leakage during this process. This research interest is further motivated by the tremendous amounts of
CH4 stored in the hydrates and by its geographically widespread distribution. For example, Kvenvolden
(1988) estimates that there are 10,000 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon stored in methane hydrate deposits. This
corresponds to twice the amount of currently recoverable worldwide fossil fuels (Sloan and Koh, 2008) and
has been the most-widely cited “consensus value” over the last few decades. However, (Milkov, 2004) has updated the global estimate of
hydrate-bound gas to a value of ~ 500–2500 Gt of methane carbon in a calculation that best reflects current knowledge on submarine gas
hydrates. Even
if only a small fraction of these energy resources was technically and economically
exploitable, methane from sea-floor gas hydrates could play an important role in the world's energy
mix, as already one promille of the estimated global methane hydrates inventory would cover current
annual global energy needs (Walsh et al., 2009).
In terms of the final product, gas extracted from gas hydrates is a close substitute for natural gas. One major
difference is that natural gas contains up to 20% other hydrocarbons and inert gases, while gas extracted from methane hydrates is almost pure
CH4, the chemically most stringently reduced form of carbon. Of all hydrocarbons, CH4
is the least carbon-intensive, so
energy from CH4 produces the lowest quantity of CO2 per unit of output.
To the best of our knowledge, (Walsh et al., 2009) were the first to mention gas hydrates in an economic journal. In their paper, they sum up
recent research on the resource potential of gas hydrates and estimate the gas prices at which the exploitation of gas hydrates would become
profitable. They find that gas prices of around 7–12 $US/Mscf (US dollars per thousand standard cubic feet) would be necessary to cover the
costs involved in exploiting terrestrial hydrate deposits. For marine hydrates, the costs of extraction would be 3.5–4 $US/Mscf higher than for a
comparable offshore deposit of conventional natural gas. In the context of offshore extraction, the authors also mention “another level of risks
which cannot yet be quantified” (p.821), which we interpret as the geological risk associated with extraction of offshore hydrates.
Economically, the discovery of gas hydrates may be beneficial for the world economy, as a) it may
reduce the scarcity of fossil fuels, in particular of natural gas, and b) as a low-carbon source of energy it can
serve as a transition to zero-emission energies. Countries with access to sea-floor resources according to Art. 77(1)
UNCLOS, such as Norway, Russia, India, USA, China, Japan, New Zealand, Chile, and possibly others, will benefit from exporting methane, but
importers will also benefit from lower gas prices on the world market. On the other hand, the prospect has its drawbacks, since exploitation of gas
hydrates may give rise to two kinds of externalities. First, even “preventive methane exploitation” from gas hydrates contributes to global
warming in two different ways, a) by combustion and hence generation of CO2, and b) by methane leakage during the mining process. Second,
mining of the hydrates, i.e. removal of the “cement”, may also lead to the destabilization of continental margins, and this may increase the risk of
marine geohazards.
Advantage (_)—Vents
1. Further modeling of sea floor key to vents research
GEOMAR 14—Abbreviation for the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel. [“Hydrothermal
vents: How productive are the ore factories in the deep sea?” Science Daily, 24 April 2014,
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/04/140424102605.htm] // AG
In general, it is well known that seawater penetrates into Earth's interior through cracks and crevices
along the plate boundaries. The seawater is heated by the magma; the hot water rises again, leaches
metals and other elements from the ground and is released as a black colored solution. "However, in
detail it is somewhat unclear whether the water enters the ocean floor in the immediate vicinity of
the vents and flows upward immediately, or whether it travels long distances underground before
venting," explains Dr. Jörg Hasenclever from GEOMAR.
This question is not only important for the fundamental understanding of processes on our planet.
It also has very practical implications. Some of the materials leached from the underground are
deposited on the seabed and form ore deposits that may be of economically interest . There is a
major debate, however, how large the resource potential of these deposits might be. "When we know
which paths the water travels underground, we can better estimate the quantities of materials
released by black smokers over thousands of years," says Hasenclever.
Hasenclever and his colleagues have used for the first time a high-resolution computer model of the
seafloor to simulate a six kilometer long and deep, and 16 kilometer wide section of a mid-ocean ridge in
the Pacific. Among the data used by the model was the heat distribution in the oceanic crust, which is
known from seismic studies. In addition, the model also considered the permeability of the rock and the
special physical properties of water.
The simulation required several weeks of computing time. The result: "There are actually two different
flow paths -- about half the water seeps in near the vents, where the ground is very warm. The other half
seeps in at greater distances and migrates for kilometers through the seafloor before exiting years later."
Thus, the current study partially confirmed results from a computer model, which were published in
2008 in the scientific journal Science. "However, the colleagues back then were able to simulate only
a much smaller region of the ocean floor and therefore identified only the short paths near the
black smokers," says Hasenclever.
The current study is based on fundamental work on the modeling of the seafloor , which was
conducted in the group of Professor Lars Rüpke within the framework of the Kiel Cluster of Excellence
"The Future Ocean." It provides scientists worldwide with the basis for further investigations to see
how much ore is actually on and in the seabed, and whether or not deep-sea mining on a large scale
could ever become worthwhile. "So far, we only know the surface of the ore deposits at hydrothermal
vents. Nobody knows exactly how much metal is really deposited there. All the discussions about the
pros and cons of deep-sea ore mining are based on a very thin database," says co-author Prof. Dr.
Colin Devey from GEOMAR. "We need to collect a lot more data on hydrothermal systems before
we can make reliable statements."
2. Vents biotech improves agriculture, biotech, and pharmaceutics
Thornburg et al 09—Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Oregon State University...[“Deep-Sea
Hydrothermal Vents: Potential Hot Spots for Natural Products Discovery?” Christopher C. Thornburg, T.
Mark Zabriskie, and Kerry L. McPhail, Journal of Natural Products, American Chemical Society and
American Society of Pharmacognosy, 20 October 2009, accessed from Emory] // AG
Cultivation of microorganisms was central to methods used in early studies of microbial communities to
determine community diversity, biomass, and production rates.105 However, most hydrothermal vent
microorganisms are extremely resistant to cultivation, which might be expected considering the
extreme environments they inhabit.64 Cultivation strategies utilizing various in situ colonization
devices including vent cap chambers,106 pumice-filled stainless-steel pipes,107 titanium-mesh
catheters,108 and titaniumsheathed thermocouple arrays109 showed moderate success in culturing some
of these microbes in their natural environment for the study of in situ physiological expression (see Figure
2 for example studies).110 Advances in laboratory cultivation have allowed fairly accurate replications of
temperature, nutrient composition, and pressure, which have greatly increased the diversity of cultured
microbes from previously “uncultivated” microorganisms. 63,111,112 Considerable effort has been
applied to the largescale cultivation of hyperthermophilic anaerobes to investigate their potential
biotechnological applications .113 Numerous biotechnology companies are actively involved in
product development from thermophilic vent organisms. These biotechnological interests have
focused mainly on the use of whole cells, for example, sulfatereducing bacteria in waste management
processes,114 and also the development of new enzymes20 and exopolysaccharides115 to improve
agriculture, biotechnology, cosmetics, pharmaceutics, and even bone healing.116,117 In contrast,
there are few reported culture efforts of likely small molecule natural product-producing microbes (e.g.,
Actinobacteria). Researchers in the Marine Drug Discovery Program at HBOI have isolated and cultured
over 11 000 marine heterotrophic bacteria and fungi, both free-living and from invertebrate filter feeders.
The Harbor Branch Marine Microbe Database118 provides public access to detailed descriptions of
microorganisms associated with deeper water (>35 m) marine invertebrates, including rRNA-based
taxonomy, geographic source, depth, GenBankaccessionnumber,images,andcultureandcellcharacteristics.119,120 There is also a focus on
laboratory cultivation of deep vent microbes at the Center for Marine Biotechnology at Rutgers
University, where they have developed laboratory techniques to culture tubeworms together with their
symbiotic bacteria.121 Other successes in laboratory culture of potential natural product-producing
microorganisms include the isolation of 38 actinomycetes from the Mariana Trench sediments (using
marine agar and culture media selective for actinomycetes).122 These bacteria were assigned to the
Dermacoccus, Kocuria, Micromonospora, Streptomyces, Tsukamurella, and Williamsia genera based on
16S rRNA analysis. Furthermore, nonribosomal peptide synthetase (NRPS) genes were detected in more
than half of the isolates, and type I polyketide synthases (PKS-I) were identified in five of the 38 strains.
3. Marine organisms hold significant promise for necessary drug development
Montaser and Luesch 11 [Rana & Hendrik – University of Florida College of Pharmacy, “Marine
natural products: a new wave of drugs?”, September, Future Medicinal Chemistry, Vol. 3, No. 12, Pages
1475-1489 \\NL]
Over half of all drugs are based on terrestrial natural products scaffolds. Despite this fact, natural
products have been neglected for drug discovery with the advent of high-throughput screening
technology. However, since assaying large synthetic libraries that are irrelevant to our chiral world
has not lived up to the initial promise of delivering drug candidates, there has been a renaissance of
natural products as leads for drug discovery, particularly if novel sources/organisms can be uncovered.
The largely unexplored marine world that presumably harbors the most biodiversity may be the
vastest resource to discover novel ‘validated’ structures with novel modes of action that cover
biologically relevant chemical space. Several challenges, including the supply problem and target
identification, need to be met for successful drug development of these oftentimes complex structures.
Can the hurdles associated with developing these molecules be overcome? The answer is yes, because
the first marine natural products have entered the drug market and several hopeful candidates are
already in advanced stages. Can the oceans provide a robust pipeline of marine drugs? Advances in
technologies such as sampling strategies, nanoscale NMR for structure determination, total
chemical synthesis, biosynthesis and genetic engineering are all crucial to the success of marine
natural products as drug leads. Whole-genome sequencing will become a routine method to predict
biosynthetic and drug potential. In our view, the high degree of innovation in the field of marine
natural products will lead to successful marine drug discovery and development (Figure 6), and
provides grounds for our optimism that marine natural products will form a new wave of drugs
that flow into the market and pharmacies in the future.
4. Deep-sea organisms advance biotech research
Orcutt et al 11—Center for Geomicrobiology at Aarhus University. [“Microbial Ecology of the Dark
Ocean above, at, and below the Seafloor,” Beth N. Orcutt, Jason B Sylvan, Nina J. Knab, and Katrina J.
Edwards, Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews, Volume 75, Number 2, 2011, pp 361-422,
Accessed from Emory] // AG
In microbial ecology, we consider that fewer than 1% of the species in an environmental microbial
community have been cultivated (14, 237). This percentage may be even lower for some dark ocean
habitats that have yielded few environmental isolates, such as deep sediments and oceanic crust.
Despite the low proportional representation of prokaryotic isolates from dark ocean habitats, the few
representatives available are highly valuable for discovering information about unusual types of
metabolism, pressure and temperature adaptations, and growth under “extreme” conditions
(extreme compared to human-experienced conditions, although not extreme in the sense that such
conditions are common on Earth). Biochemical investigations of dark ocean-derived isolates can be
rewarding for biotechnology research as well, especially since research on piezophilic and
thermophilic microorganisms may lead to the development of new enzymes for pressure- and heattolerant applications. For example, lipid-degrading enzymes found in microorganisms that colonize whale
falls have been explored for commercial use as low-temperature detergent agents. Here we present and
discuss some of the recently cultivated microorganisms from the dark ocean (Table 7). This summary
is not meant to be comprehensive but rather to illustrate the breadth of different organisms and
lifestyles present in the dark ocean as well as to highlight areas requiring focused culturing efforts
in the future.
5. Pandemics and bioterrorism will cause extinction—continuously develop new
treatments is key
Riedel 05—MD, PhD, Department of Pathology at Baylor University. [“:lague: from natural disease to
bioterrorism,” Stefan Ridel, Proceedings Baylor University Medical Center, Volume 18, Number 2, pp
116, accessed from Emory] // AG
In the past centuries, plague has caused social and economic devastation on a scale unmatched by
any other infectious agent except for smallpox. Although at the present time the organism is not a
major health concern, still approximately 2000 cases annually are reported worldwide. It is evident
that plague has not been eradicated and will not be eradicated soon. The WHO recently categorized
plague as a reemerging infectious disease. Despite the major advances in the knowledge of the disease, in
public health, and in diagnosis and treatment that were made since the discovery of the causative agent Y.
pestis, the main reasons for the persistence of the disease are found in its epidemiology: plague is
essentially a disease of wild rodents that is transmitted by fleas. The control of this wild animal
population is inherently difficult, since the burrows are most often located in inaccessible areas. And
even if at some point the infected animal reservoir could be completely destroyed, this would not
guarantee the extinction of the disease: Y. pestis can survive in animal carcasses and litter for several
years, thus being a source of reinfection of other rodents. With the new evidence of the reemergence of
plague in Africa and India, the possibility of a fourth pandemic has to be considered. Furthermore,
the recent emergence of variant strains and the possibility of resistance to current treatment
regimens should lead to continuous research on Y. pestis and identification of possible new treatment
modalities.
In the era of bioterrorism, several other issues have to be addressed. The medical community as well
as the public should be educated about the basic infectious disease epidemiology and control measures to
increase the possibility of a calm and reasoned response if an outbreak should occur. Furthermore,
improved culture methods, biosafety facilities, and methods for susceptibility testing are necessary
to allow for a more rapid identification of diseases such as plague. Continuous efforts should be
made to seek new treatment modalities. This last concern is of great importance, since concerns
about bioengineered organisms have been raised. It is in fact highly feasible to construct extremely
virulent organisms resistant to standard antibiotics used for treatment and prophylaxis. A defense
plan built on prophylactic antibiotics is highly vulnerable , given the fact that multidrug-resistant
plague bacilli have recently occurred naturally. Vaccines have been used in the prevention of diseases for
many decades and play a central role in the biodefense against a smallpox attack (51,52). It seems logical
that our current national biodefense strategy must include the development of vaccines against
multidrug-resistant strains of anthrax and plague to effectively protect the population.
A threat that is less likely but must be taken very seriously is the creation of genetic constructs through
recombination technology. Such organisms—called chimeras—would combine the traits of several
pathogens to create a highly virulent, transmissible, and multidrug-resistant organism. Alibek and
Handelman described work on chimeras being conducted by Soviet military scientists (40). These
organisms would challenge our ability to respond effectively to a public health threat with
bioweapons. Most recent epidemics like HIV and severe acute respiratory syndrome have taught us that
we can indeed respond quickly to global public health emergencies and develop diagnostic methods,
therapies, and, hopefully, vaccines. However, proper education of the medical community as well as the
public remains an essential cornerstone to ensure an effective safeguard for tragedies such as bioweapons
attacks. Let us hope that we will not have to face such a challenge that is caused by the construction
of a deadly pathogenic microorganism developed for the sole purpose of killing humans.
6. And extinction – agents are easy to acquire and disperse
Matheny 7 – Research associate with the Future of Humanity Institute @ Oxford University [Jason G.
Matheny (PhD candidate in Applied Economics and Master’s in Public Health at Johns Hopkins
University), “Reducing the Risk of Human Extinction,” Risk Analysis. Volume 27, Number 5, 2007, pg.
http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/website/resources/publications/2007_orig-articles/2007-10-15reducingrisk.html]
Of current extinction risks, the most severe may be bioterrorism. The knowledge needed to engineer a
virus is modest compared to that needed to build a nuclear weapon; the necessary equipment and
materials are increasingly accessible and because biological agents are self replicating, a weapon can
have an exponential effect on a population (Warrick, 2006; Williams, 2006).5 Current U.S. biodefense
efforts are funded at $5 billion per year to develop and stockpile new drugs and vaccines, monitor
biological agents and emerging diseases, and strengthen the capacities of local health systems to respond
to pandemics (Lam, Franco, & Shuler, 2006).
Plan
The United States federal government should substantially increase its exploration
of the Earth’s oceans by mapping the ocean floor.
Solvency
1. Government key to MH exploration and development
Ruppel 11—Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.
[“Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas,” Carolyn Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,
Supplementary Paper 4, accessed from Emory] // AG
Despite the relative immaturity of gas hydrates R&D compared to that for other unconventional
gas resources, the accomplishments of the past decade, summarized in detail by Collett et al. (2009),
have advanced gas hydrates along the path towards eventual commercial production. The U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE), as directed by the Methane Hydrates R&D Act of 2000 and the
subsequent Energy Act of 2005, has partnered with other government agencies, academe, and
industry in field, modeling, and laboratory programs that have produced numerous successes
(Doyle et al., 2004; Paull et al., 2010). These accomplishments have included the refinement of methods
for pre-drill estimation of hydrate saturations and safe completion of logging and coring programs in gas
hydrate-bearing sediments in both deepwater marine and permafrost environments. Within the next 4
years, US federal-industry partnerships are scheduled to oversee advanced logging and direct
sampling of resource-grade (high saturation) gas hydrates in sand deposits in the deepwater Gulf of
Mexico and completion of a long-term test of production methods on the Alaskan North Slope. In Japan,
the government-supported methane hydrates program (now called MH21; Tsuji et al., 2009) has also
relied on cooperation among the private, public, and academic sectors over past decade and plans to
conduct an initial production testing of resource-grade gas hydrates in the deepwater Nankai Trough in
2012. The current MH21 effort has grown out of earlier advanced borehole logging and deep coring in
1999-2000 (MITI) and in 2004 (METI), as described by Tsuji et al. (2004, 2009) and Fujii et al. (2009).
Canada has also worked with a consortium of partners to complete three major drilling programs in the
permafrost of the Mackenzie Delta (e.g., Dallimore et al., 1999; Dallimore and Collett, 2005; Dallimore et
al., 2008). Canada was the first country to ever produce small volumes of gas from hydrates during short
duration (up to a few days) production tests at these wells. Since 2005, India (e.g., Collett et al., 2008; M.
Lee and Collett, 2009; Yun et al., 2010), Korea (Park et al., 2008; Ryu et al., 2009), China (Zhang et al.,
2007; Wu et al., 2008), and private sector interests operating offshore Malaysia (Hadley et al., 2008) have
also launched major, successful deepwater hydrate drilling expeditions, and Korea drilled the Ulleung
Basin again in the second half of 2010 (S.R. Lee et al., 2011).
As befits costly exploration projects with uncertain short-term payoffs, the global effort to
investigate the potential of gas hydrates as a resource has often been carried out with significant
cooperation among countries, substantial support from governments, and major leadership from
both the government and academic research sectors. Even after more research, key challenges are
likely to remain in locating gas hydrates, assessing the size of the resource, developing viable
production strategies, and understanding the economics of eventual gas production from gas
hydrates within the context of natural gas supply as a whole.
2. AUVs hold promise as future exploration systems and devices
McNutt 13 [Marcia – American geophysicist who is editor-in-chief of the journal Science.McNutt
holds a visiting appointment at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and she is the chair of the
Geoengineering Climate committee of the National Academy of Sciences. McNutt was director of the
United States Geological Survey (USGS) and science adviser to the United States Secretary of the
Interior. Prior to working for USGS, McNutt was president and chief executive officer of the Monterey
Bay Aquarium Research Institute, an oceanographic research center in the United States, professor of
marine geophysics at the Stanford University School of Earth Sciences and professor of marine
geophysics at University of California, Santa Cruz; “Accelerating Ocean Exploration”, 8/30/13, Science,
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6149/937 \\NL]
As a first step, future exploration should make better use of autonomous platforms that are
equipped with a broader array of in situ sensors, for lower-cost data gathering. Fortunately, new,
more nimble, and easily deployed platforms are available, ranging from $200 kits for build-your-own
remotely operated vehicles to longrange autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), solar-powered
autonomous platforms, autonomous boats, AUVs that operate cooperatively in swarming behavior
through the use of artificial intelligence, and gliders that can cross entire oceans. New in situ
chemical and biological sensors allow the probing of ocean processes in real time in ways not
possible if samples are processed later in laboratories.
Exploration also would greatly benefit from improvements in telepresence. For expeditions that
require ships (very distant from shore and requiring the return of complex samples), experts on shore
can now “join” through satellite links, enlarging the pool of talent available to comment on the
importance of discoveries as they happen and to participate in real-time decisions that affect expedition
planning. This type of communication can enrich the critical human interactions that guide the
discovery process on such expeditions.
3. US agencies key to mapping and development
Boswell 11—PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [“Paper #1-11 METHANE
HYDRATES,” Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document of
the North American Resource Development Study, 2011, accessed through Emory] // AG
Within the United States, industry gas hydrate R&D is focused on those issues that impact ongoing
operations: primarily flow assurance and shallow drilling hazard assessment and mitigation.
Domestic research into gas hydrate as a resource and as a constituent of global carbon cycling is
primarily conducted by federal agencies and academia, with industry collaboration primarily enabled
by a U.S. National R&D Program lead by the DOE in coordination with the USGS, the Bureau of
Ocean Energy Management , Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEMRE), the Bureau of Land
Management (BLM), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Naval
Research Laboratory (NRL), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Although each federal
agency participating in this coordinated effort independently prioritizes and conducts its own efforts as
they pursue their individual organizational missions, two interagency coordination committees work to
ensure that these efforts are planned and conducted in a manner that reduces redundancies and
maximizes synergies. The advances in gas hydrates R&D in recent years, particularly the success of
field programs in Alaska (in 2007) and in the Gulf of Mexico (in 2005 and in 2009) have thus far kept
the U.S. National Program on track to achieve the long-term goals and priorities of the program
(NRC, 2010).
4. 3-D mapping tech feasible
Goto et al 08—Associate Professor in the Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, PhD
in Engineering from Kyoto University. [“A marine deep-towed DC resistivity survey in a methane
hydrate area, Japan Sea,” Exploration Geophysics, Volume 39, 2008, pp 57-58, Csiro Publishing,
accessed from Emory] // AG
Conclusions
In order to detect MH distributions, especially the top boundary, we have developed a new marine
DC resistivity survey system (MANTA), consisting of a deep-towed system, a transmitter and a 160 m
long tail with source electrodes and a receiver dipole. The MANTA system can dive down to 6000 m
water depth, and can be towed at 5 m clearance above the seafloor. The feasibility of the MANTA
system has been discussed on the basis of numerical studies.
We have carried out field tests off Joetsu, in the Japan Sea, over recently recognised MH-exposed areas.
Apparent resistivity is estimated with high accuracy, and indicates relatively high values, implying
the existence of resistive material below the seafloor. Around the areas with methane hydrate exposure,
anomalously high apparent resistivity is observed with short source-receiver separations, so that we
interpret these high apparent resistivities to be due to the MH zone below the seafloor. On the basis of a
pseudosection, we infer a heterogeneous distribution of the depth to the top of the MH layer. Although
qualitative imaging has been achieved, inversion codes that take into account the MANTA’s electrode
locations and the bathymetry are necessary for further discussion and estimation of the precise depth and
resistivity estimation of the MH zone.
As a result of the field test of the MANTA system, we can image the sub-seafloor structure
continuously with horizontal resolution of several tens of metres. The maximum sounding depth is
∼100 m. The towed speed was 1 kn normally, so that we can ‘scan’ the resistivity structure along a
total profile length of∼40 km/day. Therefore, we propose that our MANTA system will be useful for
two-dimensional or three-dimensional imaging with parallel profiles, to detect MH zones in a wide
area.
Topicality
Def—Ocean Exploration
Ocean exploration is establishing new lines of knowledge
Malik et al. 13 [Malik, M. A. – NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Valette-Silver, N.
J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Lobecker, E.; Skarke, A. D. - NOAA Office of
Ocean Exploration and Research; Elliott, K. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research;
McDonough, J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, “To Explore or to Research: Trends
in modern age ocean studies”, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, NASA Data System
\\accessed 6/14/14\\NL]
The recommendations of President's Panel Report on Ocean Exploration gave rise to NOAA's Office of Ocean Exploration in 2001, and helped establish NOAA as the lead agency for a federal
The panel defined exploration as discovery through disciplined, diverse observations
and recordings of findings including rigorous, systematic observations and documentation of
biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological aspects of the ocean in the three
dimensions of space and in time. Here we ask the question about the fine line that separates ';Exploration' and ';Research'. We contend that successful
exploration aims to establish new lines of knowledge or give rise to new hypothesis as compared to
research where primary goal is to prove or disprove an existing hypothesis. However, there can be considerable time lag
ocean exploration program.
before a hypothesis can be established after an initial observation. This creates interesting challenges for ocean exploration because instant ';return on investment' can not be readily shown.
Strong media and public interest is garnered by far and apart exciting discoveries about new biological species or processes. However, most of the ocean exploration work goes to systematically
extract basic information about a previously unknown area. We refer to this activity as baseline characterization in providing information about an area which can support hypothesis generation
and further research to prove or disprove this hypothesis. Examples of such successful characterization include OER endeavors in the Gulf of Mexico that spanned over 10 years and it provided
. This baseline characterization was also
conveniently used by scientists to conduct research on benthic communities to study effects of deep water horizon incident. More recently similar
baseline characterization in terms of biological diversity and distribution on basin-wide scale
characterization has been attempted by NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer from 2011 - 2013 field season in NE Atlantic canyon. This has been one of the first ever campaigns to systematically map
the NE canyons from US-Canada border to Cape Hatteras. After the 3D mapping of the canyons that included multibeam sonar derived bathymetry and backscatter, OER provided the first ever
comprehensive maps of the seafloor and water column which have become the basis for further exploration and research in this region. NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer currently remains the only
federal vessel dedicated solely to Ocean Exploration. Examples of some of the recent discoveries of the ship will be provided to explain as how Exploration and Research are merging together in
modern era of ocean sciences.
Exploration is disciplined observations of five aspects of the ocean
-Hard brightline and most predictable
NOAA 13 [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - The National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration is a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce
focused on the conditions of the oceans and the atmosphere, January 7th, 2013, “What Is Ocean
Exploration and Why Is It Important?”, http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.html
\\accessed 6/15/14\\NL]
Ocean exploration is about making new discoveries, searching for things that are unusual and unexpected. Although it
involves the search for things yet unknown, ocean exploration is disciplined and systematic. It includes rigorous
observations and documentation of biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological
aspects of the ocean. Findings made through ocean exploration expand our fundamental scientific
knowledge and understanding, helping to lay the foundation for more detailed, hypothesis-based
scientific investigations.
Predictability—NOAA Most Predictable
NOAA is the most predictable – lead agency in charge of exploration
Malik et al. 13 [Malik, M. A. – NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Valette-Silver, N.
J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research; Lobecker, E.; Skarke, A. D. - NOAA Office of
Ocean Exploration and Research; Elliott, K. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research;
McDonough, J. - NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration and Research, “To Explore or to Research: Trends
in modern age ocean studies”, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, NASA Data System
\\accessed 6/14/14\\NL]
The recommendations of President's Panel Report on Ocean Exploration gave rise to NOAA's
Office of Ocean Exploration in 2001, and helped establish NOAA as the lead agency for a federal
ocean exploration program. The panel defined exploration as discovery through disciplined, diverse observations
and recordings of findings including rigorous, systematic observations and documentation of
biological, chemical, physical, geological, and archaeological aspects of the ocean in the three
dimensions of space and in time. Here we ask the question about the fine line that separates ';Exploration' and ';Research'. We contend that
successful exploration aims to establish new lines of knowledge or give rise to new hypothesis as compared to research where primary goal is to prove or disprove an
existing hypothesis. However, there can be considerable time lag before a hypothesis can be established after an initial observation. This creates interesting challenges
for ocean exploration because instant ';return on investment' can not be readily shown. Strong media and public interest is garnered by far and apart exciting
discoveries about new biological species or processes. However, most of the ocean exploration work goes to systematically extract basic information about a
previously unknown area. We refer to this activity as baseline characterization in providing information about an area which can support hypothesis generation and
further research to prove or disprove this hypothesis. Examples of such successful characterization include OER endeavors in the Gulf of Mexico that spanned over 10
years and it provided baseline characterization in terms of biological diversity and distribution on basin-wide scale. This baseline characterization was also
conveniently used by scientists to conduct research on benthic communities to study effects of deep water horizon incident. More recently similar characterization has
been attempted by NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer from 2011 - 2013 field season in NE Atlantic canyon. This has been one of the first ever campaigns to
systematically map the NE canyons from US-Canada border to Cape Hatteras. After the 3D mapping of the canyons that included multibeam sonar derived
bathymetry and backscatter, OER provided the first ever comprehensive maps of the seafloor and water column which have become the basis for further exploration
and research in this region. NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer currently remains the only federal vessel dedicated solely to Ocean Exploration. Examples of some of the
recent discoveries of the ship will be provided to explain as how Exploration and Research are merging together in modern era of ocean sciences.
Exploration Knowledge K2 Real Life Skills
Exploration is important because it develops real life skills
NOAA 13 [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, January 7th, 2013, “What Is Ocean
Exploration and Why Is It Important?”, http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/backmatter/whatisexploration.html
\\accessed 6/15/14\\NL]
While new
discoveries are always exciting to scientists, information from ocean exploration is
important to everyone. Unlocking the mysteries of deep-sea ecosystems can reveal new sources for medical drugs, food, energy resources, and other
products. Information from deep-ocean exploration can help predict earthquakes and tsunamis and help us understand how we are affecting and being affected by
changes in Earth’s climate and atmosphere. Expeditions
to the unexplored ocean can help focus research into critical
geographic and subject areas that are likely to produce tangible benefits. Ocean exploration can
improve ocean literacy and inspire new generations of youth to seek careers in science, technology,
engineering, and mathematics . The challenges of exploring the deep ocean can provide the basis for
problem-solving instruction in technology and engineering that can be applied in other situations .
Exploration leaves a legacy of new knowledge that can be used by those not yet born to answer
questions not yet posed at the time of exploration.
Inherency
2AC—No Modeling/Mapping of Ocean Now
We know nothing about our oceans—we must expand exploration
Helvarg 4/1—BA in History from Goddard College in Vermont and journalist. [“Op-Ed It's no surprise
we can't find Flight 370,” LATimes, 4/1/2014, David Helvarg, http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/laoe-0401-helvarg-flight-370-ocean-exploration-20140401-story.html] // AG
Even accounting for more than 70 years of classified military hydrographic surveys, we've still
mapped less than 10% of the ocean with the resolution we've used to map all of the moon, Mars or
even several moons of Jupiter.
Obviously, our ability to search for a missing aircraft at sea has come a long way since Amelia Earhart
disappeared while trying to cross the Pacific in 1937. But the patched-together satellite data and
electronic-signals processing that has so far pointed the Flight 370 search to an area 1,800 miles from
Perth, Australia, is no more than a crisis-mode, jury-rigged, extraordinary effort. Consider this: If
you're a drug smuggler and you enter U.S. coastal waters in a speedboat at night, and then go dead in the
water during the day, with a blue tarp thrown over your vessel, odds are that you'll successfully deliver
your contraband.
Our investment in ocean exploration, monitoring and law enforcement efforts is at a 20-year low in
the United States and not much better elsewhere. Our chances of quickly finding the missing
Malaysian flight would have been improved if we had invested more money and effort on our planet's
last great commons, with observational tools such as in-situ labs and wired benthic observatories,
remote and autonomous underwater vehicles and gliders, forward-looking infrared cameras and
multi-beam shipboard, airborne (and space-deployed) scanning systems, and other smart but
woefully underfunded sea technologies.
The fact remains that while hundreds of people have gone into space, only three humans have ventured to
the lowest point on our planet seven miles down in the Mariana Trench, and the latest of these —
filmmaker explorer engineer James Cameron — had to self-fund his 2012 mission.
Meanwhile, when it comes to exploring the cosmos, NASA — even in its diminished state —
outspends NOAA's ocean exploration program roughly 1,000 to 1. Yet when we get to Mars, the first
thing we seek as proof of life is water. Meanwhile, we have a whole water planet that remains a challenge
we've once again discovered to be far greater than we thought.
Whatever the final resolution of the Flight 370 tragedy, that challenge is bound to become greater as our
food and coastal security, marine transportation systems, even our basic ecosystem processes such as the
oxygen generated by ocean plankton, are increasingly stressed through overfishing, pollution, loss of
coastal habitat and ocean impacts from climate change.
Investing in the exploration and understanding of our planet's largest habitat should be a given.
Perhaps that will be a lesson learned from our latest human disaster. Unfortunately, while the sea is still
vast, our ability to act wisely in our own interests is often limited.
2AC—Squo Ocean Policy Fails
National Ocean Policy fails – economic uncertainty
Hastings 13 [Doc – Chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources; “National Ocean Policy
Creates More Red Tape, Hurts Economy”, January, Sea Technology, Vol. 54 Issue 1, p. 40, Ebsco \\NL]
Job and Economic Impacts
Although marketed as a common-sense plan to develop and protect our oceans, the National Ocean
Policy will inflict economic harm and uncertainty on America’s job creators. Imposing mandatory
ocean zoning could place huge portions of our oceans and coasts off-limits, curtailing energy
development, commercial fishing and recreational activities.
The reach of the policy goes beyond the oceans. It gives the regional planning bodies authority to
regulate as far inland as necessary. This could impact all activities occurring on lands adjacent to
rivers, tributaries or watersheds that drain into the ocean.
A multitude of industries could be affected, including agriculture, fishing, construction,
manufacturing, mining, oil and natural gas, and renewable energy. These industries support tens of
millions of jobs and contribute trillions of dollars to the U.S. economy .
The policy also involves vague and undefined objectives that would create uncertainty for
businesses and job creators, and open the floodgates for litigation . According to testimony received
by the House Natural Resources Committee, this uncertainty will likely increase costs to private
landowners and businesses, cause companies to cut back on investment and job creation, and limit
American energy production both on- and offshore.
It is also unclear how much this initiative will cost taxpayers, how it is being funded and if it will
take money away from existing agency budgets at a time when budgets are already being cut.
National Ocean Policy fails – additional bureaucracy
Hastings 13 [Doc – Chairman of the House Committee on Natural Resources; “National Ocean Policy
Creates More Red Tape, Hurts Economy”, January, Sea Technology, Vol. 54 Issue 1, p. 40, Ebsco \\NL]
Additional Bureaucracy
President Obama enacted the National Ocean Policy by issuing an executive order, meaning this
drastic change in ocean management was done without Congressional authorization. To date, no bill
has passed the U.S. House of Representatives to implement similar far-reaching ocean policies.
The executive order creates a web of bureaucracy that includes dozens of new policies, councils,
committees, planning bodies, priority objectives, action plans, national goals and guiding principles.
Rather than streamline federal management, the president’s initiative will instead add layers of
new red tape and create a topdown approach.
For example, federally-controlled regional planning bodies will be tasked with creating zoning plans
for each region without input or representation from local stakeholders or affected industries. All
relevant federal agencies, states and regulated communities will be bound by the plans, which will
be used to make decisions on regional permitting activities.
2AC—Squo Tech Fails
Current proposed methods of methane drilling are too unpredictable-more research
is needed before attempting to access
Embleton 8 [Richard Embleton, “Methane Hydrates: What are they thinking?,” Energy Bulletin, Dec
17 2008, pg. http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2008-12-17/methane-hydrates-what-are-they-thinking
The world's governments are beginning to come to grips with the reality that crude
oil is a finite resource. That forces them to face
amount of that resource available for running global human society is about to go
into terminal decline. We are at or soon to arrive at peak oil. Many analysts believe, based on the data, that we hit that peak in the spring
another reality. The
of 2005. Other more optimistic analysts believe that peak may still be as much as thirty years in the future. Even that (I am not conceding that
projection. I am in the spring 2005 camp.) is close enough that the majority of people alive today will have to begin to adjust to declining global
oil production in their lifetime. Optimists point to the fact that we have moved beyond various energy sources, on which the entire society
depends, many times in the past. We have always found a new, better energy source to replace them. Even since the beginning of the industrial
revolution we have moved through water power, steam power, coal, natural gas, electricity, oil and nuclear. Oil, however, has been the most
important and workable energy source that we have ever discovered and exploited. Where
do we go from oil? What will be the next,
are many who see electricity playing an increasingly
important role, including driving transportation. To many that electric future will be increasingly
centered on a nuclear energy renaissance. On the fringes they see electricity generation from wind,
solar, geothermal, tidal, hydro, wave and a variety of other options. But oil is used for much more
than powering the family car. I have trouble visualizing electric planes and electric ships. Hell, most
electric cars have a battery range of under 100 kilometers. And I don't think you can make plastics
from electricity. Last I noticed it required hydrocarbons. In one form or another, in fact,
hydrocarbons have been the world's primary energy source since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution over 200 years ago. It answers one extremely important need; portability. Hydrocarbon
fuels, especially oil and its derivatives, can be easily move from one place to another. They can also
be used on board to generate the power used to move it. What is the next energy source that will give us
what oil, coal and natural gas give us today? You may be surprised to hear that it may be the other hydrocarbon
fuel. A Great many scientists, industry leaders and governments throughout the developed world
believe that will be methane. More specifically they believe it will be methane hydrates. Methane hydrates
better energy source that can power human society. There
(also called clathrates) are bubbles of methane gas trapped in a cage of ice crystals. Methane hydrate deposits occur in locations all over the
world. The most concentrated deposits occur under the Arctic Ocean, under the ocean floor on most continental shelves, in locations like the Gulf
of Mexico, the Bermuda Triangle, the Dragon's Triangle south of Japan, and in permafrost surrounding the Arctic ocean. It is reliably estimated
that the amount of methane trapped as hydrates globally exceeds by many times the total combined oil, coal and natural gas reserves that have
ever existed on earth. A chunk of methane ice exposed to the air and ignited will burn until all of the methane in that ice has been consumed.
Methane hydrates, however, require specific conditions of temperature and pressure to keep them
contained within their ice cage. Reduce the pressure - for example, by reducing the sea level and the
pressure of water above the deposit - or increased the temperature and the methane hydrate
deposit becomes unstable and begins to release the trapped methane into the atmosphere. That is a
problem. Methane is a greenhouse gas. In fact, it is 21-23 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide. When the methane trapped in the hydrate is released it expands by about 170 times.[1] Methane is lighter than
CO2, lighter than air. As a result it rises rapidly through the atmosphere up to the lower-density stratosphere. On the positive side methane
remains in the atmosphere for only about 10-20 years. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for over 100 years. Scientists studying global warming
have long been seriously concerned about the possibility of large scale methane hydrate destabilization and methane release into the atmosphere.
The greatest concern is about the large volumes of methane hydrates under the Arctic sea floor and that trapped in the vast permafrost zone
surrounding the Arctic Ocean. That concern has now been heightened by recent discoveries of hundreds of methane plumes on the floor of the
Arctic Ocean north of Norway and Siberia. [2] There is also evidence in pock-marked sea floors of large releases of methane plumes in the
geological past. [3] Paleoclimatologists now believe that large scale, natural methane hydrate releases have been partly but significantly
responsible for short-cycle global warming and global cooling cycles in the past. The recent discoveries in the Arctic, in fact, are thought to
suggest that methane releases have contributed to the global warming that has occurred since the last ice age 15,000 years ago. [2] The problem is
that these methane releases have a strong positive feedback loop. As they increase the warming of the atmosphere that warming in turn increases
methane release which in turn increases warming which in turn releases more...... You get the picture. Acceleration of global warming through
this positive feedback loop, by increased methane concentration in the atmosphere, far more than CO2 concentrations, represents, to
paleoclimatologists, a far greater risk of pushing us into the Venus effect, runaway global warming. When it comes to satisfying the world's
energy lust, however, caution may be thrown to the wind. Powering down human society is never an option put on the table when politicians and
other leaders discuss energy policies and strategies. We have proven over and over again that business as usual is the only model that will be
considered. How else can we explain the tar sands, oil shale development, deepwater oil extraction, coal mines extending out under the sea floor,
and more?
There are various technologies under consideration for extracting methane from hydrate
deposits. Most involve some form of heating the hydrate deposits - one, probably the dumbest and
most dangerous, even goes so far as to suggest using nuclear explosions beneath the deposit to heat
it, also suggested by some as a means of releasing oil from tar sands and oil shale - causing them to
release the methane which is then collected and piped to a processing facility of holding tank.
Proponents of methane hydrate exploitation, conscious of environmental concerns, are quick to offer reassurances like ".....tapping into the gas
hydrates assessed in the study is not expected to affect global warming, said Brenda Pierce, coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources
Program." [4] The louder and more frequent such reassurances are, of course, the more it suggests they are trying to cover up the probability that
the result will be the opposite. There
are many projects underway, funded by governments throughout the
world (Japan, India, China, South Korea, Russia, Norway, Canada, the U.S.), aimed at developing commercially viable
technologies for exploiting the planet's vast methane hydrate deposits. The selection of sites for
these projects are, themselves, a clear indication of one of the primary roadblocks to using methane
hydrates as a societal-supporting energy source. They have sought out test sites with high methane
hydrate concentrations. Most hydrate deposits are too small or too dispersed to be commercially
exploited. Also, unlike oil and natural gas, those deposits are generally not capped in such a way that the
geology can be used to contain releases. Most of those deposits on the sea floor, in fact, exist in unconsolidated, sandy or silt
sediment. The geology surrounding them is inherently unstable, difficult to contain . Once the deposit, or any large portion of
it, is destabilized it is very difficult to prevent unintended, uncontrolled methane releases into the
atmosphere. Okay. I very begrudgingly accept that our leaders are not going to consider powering down as a potential tactic in the face of
our impending energy crisis. Sooner or later the human race is going to have to accept that reality but clearly society is not prepared to accept it
now. But methane
hydrates are not like the other fossil fuels. And our approach to exploiting them is
going to have to be very different. The risk to the climate and the environment is so much greater than has ever been the case with
other fossil fuels. Most importantly, methane hydrates are globally affected by exactly the same constrains; temperature and pressure. Global
warming itself - it doesn't matter whether it is naturally occurring or caused by human combustion of fossil fuels - is the greatest threat of tipping
methane releases into a runaway warming mechanism. Scientists do not know with any certainty yet how much of a global temperature rise is
necessary to reach the tipping point where methane hydrate release into the atmosphere accelerates out of control. They do know that once that
happens the acceleration will be self-sustaining and self-accelerating. If
our leaders take the same cavalier approach with
scientific warnings about runaway methane release that they have taken with warnings about CO2
buildup in the atmosphere, and the long-term, safe storage of spent nuclear fuel, we are headed
toward a much more serious atmospheric and climatic disaster than global warming experts have
thus far suggested. Methane releases from the ocean floors and from Arctic permafrost have not been built into any of the current global
warming models as a factor, including those models supporting the IPCC reports. Considering that methane hydrate deposits exceed the total of
all other fossil fuels by magnitudes and that methane
is more than 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas
than CO2, that should be extremely worrying to anyone who accepts the validity of the global
warming theory.
2AC—Private Sector Isn’t Safe
Private industries remain unconcerned about pollution regulations-risks unsafe
methane development practices
Moloney 2/14—The New York Times, “Studies Find Methane Leaks Negate Benefits of Natural Gas
as a Fuel for Vehicles” Kevin Moloney is a writer for the Times and frequently opines on science issues
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/14/us/study-finds-methane-leaks-negate-climate-benefits-of-naturalgas.html?_r=0
WASHINGTON — The sign is ubiquitous on city buses around the country: “This bus runs on clean
burning natural gas.” But a surprising new report, to be published Friday in the journal Science, concludes
that switching buses and trucks from traditional diesel fuel to natural gas could actually harm the planet’s
climate. Although burning natural gas as a transportation fuel produces 30 percent less planetwarming carbon dioxide emissions than burning diesel, the drilling and production of natural gas
can lead to leaks of methane, a greenhouse gas 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide. Those
methane leaks negate the climate change benefits of using natural gas as a transportation fuel,
according to the study, which was conducted by scientists at Stanford University, the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology and the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
The study concludes that there is already about 50 percent more methane in the atmosphere than
previously estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency, a signal that more methane is leaking
from the natural gas production chain than previously thought. “Switching from diesel to natural gas,
that’s not a good policy from a climate perspective,” said the study’s lead author, Adam R. Brandt, an
assistant professor in the department of energy resources at Stanford. But the study does conclude that
switching from coal-fired power plants — the nation’s largest source of carbon pollution — to natural
gas-fired power plants will still lower planet-warming emissions over all. Natural gas emits just half the
carbon pollution of coal, and even factoring in the increased pollution from methane leaks, natural gasfired plants lead to less emissions than coal over 100 years, the study found. The report adds weight to
efforts by New York and other Northeastern states to push the federal government to regulate methane
emissions. Currently, there are no federal regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas
production, although some states are considering such rules. The finding on trucks and buses is a
blow to years of public policy efforts to switch the vehicles from diesel to natural gas, an effort aimed at
decreasing pollution as well as America’s dependence on foreign oil. President Obama praised natural gas
production in his last two State of the Union addresses, and has noted that natural gas production creates
jobs while natural gas-powered electricity is more climate friendly than coal. But environmentalists say
that natural gas production comes with the hidden climate risk of methane leaks from drilling
wellheads, valves and pipelines. The report’s authors conclude that the leaks can be reined in if oil and
gas companies invest in technology to prevent methane from escaping into the atmosphere from gas wells
and production facilities. That recommendation is in line with a petition sent by New York and other
Northeastern states urging the E.P.A. to create federal methane leak regulations. The regulations would
require that oil and gas companies install equipment at wellheads to capture the leaks, use valves in
production facilities that do not allow methane to escape and have regular inspections. “This report
justifies E.P.A. taking action on regulation of methane pollution and to focus that regulation on existing
wells,” said Mark Brownstein, chief counsel for the American climate and energy program at the
Environmental Defense Fund. The oil and gas industry has consistently resisted new regulations.
Natural gas developers say that it is in their interest to capture methane since it is a component of
natural gas and can be sold as such. Allowing it to escape causes them to lose money. “The industry
has led efforts to reduce emissions of methane by developing new technologies and equipment, and
these efforts are paying off,” Carlton Carroll, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute, which
lobbies for oil and gas companies in Washington, wrote in an email. “Given that producers are
voluntarily reducing methane emissions, additional regulations are not necessary.” Friday’s report is
one of a series of closely watched and sometimes hotly disputed studies on the environmental impacts of
natural gas production. Natural gas producers celebrated a September report published in The Proceedings
of the Natural Academies of Science that concluded that methane leaks from hydraulic fracturing sites
are, on average, at or lower than levels set by the E.P.A. However, that study also found that on some
fracking rigs, valves allow methane to escape at levels 30 percent higher than those set by E.P.A.
The authors of Friday’s study say that despite the good news in that report, methane appears to be
leaking elsewhere in the natural gas supply, production and transportation chain. For example, the
authors said, methane could be leaking from facilities where natural gas is stored, compressed or
transported.
2AC—Methane Leaks in Squo
Current methane storage and transportation is insufficient in preventing emission:
methane leaks are severely underestimated
Pentland 2/13—Pentland, William. Forbes ” Underestimated Methane Leaks Make Natural Gas
Dirtier Than Previously Thought, Says Study” February 13, 2014.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2014/02/13/underestimated-methane-leaks-make-naturalgas-dirtier-than-previously-thought-says-study/
Methane emissions are worse than the conventional wisdom would have you believe, according to a
new study by researchers at Stanford University. Methane, which is the primary component of natural
gas, is an especially powerful greenhouse gas, packing more than two dozen times as much global
warming potential than carbon dioxide. Traditionally, environmental regulators and energy industry
groups have estimated methane emissions by multiplying the amount of methane emitted by a
specific source – e.g., belching cattle or methane leaks at natural gas processing plants – by the
number of that source type in a geographic region. For example, imagine that a cow emits 1/10 of a
metric ton of methane every year. If the United States has 10 cows, the total methane emissions
attributable to cattle is one metric ton annually. By adding the total methane emissions from cattle with
the totals from every other source of methane emissions, we can derive the total methane emissions for
the United States. That is how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has traditionally
calculated methane emissions since the 1990s. If the methane emissions rates (e.g., how much
methane does a cow emit in a year?) are wrong, the total estimated methane emissions are also
wrong. Several studies have tested the accuracy of these traditional methane emissions estimates by
using airplanes and towers to measure actual methane in the air. The new study, “Methane
Leakage from North American Natural Gas Systems,” evaluated more than 200 of these
atmospheric studies and concluded that the EPA’s methane emissions estimates are too low. The
key take-away: the EPA is likely underestimating U.S. methane emissions from natural gas by at
least 50% or more. “People who go out and actually measure methane pretty consistently find more
emissions than we expect,” said Adam Brandt, an assistant professor of energy resources engineering at
Stanford University and the study’s lead author. “Atmospheric tests covering the entire country
indicate emissions around 50% more than EPA estimates. And that’s a moderate estimate.” This
means that methane leaks from the natural gas system are likely to worse than previously thought.
Nevertheless, generating electricity by burning gas rather than coal still reduces the total greenhouse
effect over 100 years, the new analysis shows. Burning coal releases enormous amounts of carbon
dioxide. Mining coal also releases a lot of methane. More importantly, the majority of methane emitted
from the natural gas system can be traced to a relatively small number of large leaks, which means the
problem would likely not be terribly difficult to fix. While natural gas is cleaner than coal when used for
electric power, it is dirtier than diesel when used for transportation. The new study concluded that
powering trucks and buses with natural gas instead of diesel fuel probably accelerates global warming,
because diesel engines are relatively clean. Natural gas will only be cleaner than diesel if the gas system
is less leaky than the EPA’s current estimate, which the study suggests is unlikely. “Fueling trucks and
buses with natural gas may help local air quality and reduce oil imports, but it is not likely to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions,” said Brandt. Even running passenger cars on natural gas instead of gasoline is
probably on the borderline in terms of climate.” The study, which will be published in the February 14,
2014 issue of the journal Science, was supported by the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation.
2AC—No Funding Now
Ocean exploration funding is far outpaced by space exploration funding
Conathan 13 [Michael – Director of Ocean Policy at American Progress; “Space Exploration Dollars
Dwarf Ocean Spending”, 6/20/13, Center for American Progress \\NL]
All it takes is a quick comparison of the budgets for NASA and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, to understand why space exploration is outpacing its ocean
counterpart by such a wide margin. In fiscal year 2013 NASA’s annual exploration budget was
roughly $3.8 billion. That same year, total funding for everything NOAA does—fishery management,
weather and climate forecasting, ocean research and management, among many other programs—was
about $5 billion, and NOAA’s Office of Exploration and Research received just $23.7 million.
Something is wrong with this picture. Space travel is certainly expensive. But as Cameron proved with
his dive that cost approximately $8 million, deep-sea exploration is pricey as well. And that’s not the
only similarity between space and ocean travel: Both are dark, cold, and completely inhospitable to
human life.
Methane Release Advantage
***Warming***
2AC—Natural Gas K2 Emissions Reduction
Emissions reductions possible and cost- effective, US needs to reduce emissions now
Williams et al. 13 ["US Energy Independence With Lower Emissions."] Journal of International Energy
Policy (JIEP) 2.2 : 39-48.
Natural gas could be a shorter term solution that could help bridge the gap between petroleum
powered and hydrogen powered automobiles as well as being a fuel for producing electricity and heat. Natural gas is
perhaps the quickest and relatively easiest fuel choice to bridge the United States from a nation
dependent upon oil exporting countries to a nation that produces its own energy. While natural gas is still a
fossil fuel and there is a finite supply, the United States has an abundant supply that could be used to reduce our dependency on foreign oil.
Natural gas can be found in several types of formations. Conventional deposits are usually gas fields or oil reservoirs that are typically found in
highly porous rocks like sandstone (Deutch, 2011). These types of gas deposits only require producers to tap into the formation and the natural
pressure of the gas will force it to the surface. Unconventional gas comes from a variety of forms. Tight gas refers to natural gas found in
relatively impermeable rock formations, which release gas slowly. Coal-bed methane is gas that has been absorbed into coal seams. Methane
hydrate is natural gas in a crystalline solid state that can be found on the ocean floor and in the arctic but is much more difficult to extract than the
other forms. The type of unconventional gas that has been surging in recent years is natural gas found between layers of shale formations, which
are made of fine-grained sedimentary rock. Once extracted unconventional natural gas is identical to conventional natural gas and can be
transported by pipelines or condensed into a liquid and exported internationally (Deutch, 2011). The technology used to extract shale gas is very
similar to that used to extract oil from shale, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing or “fracking.” The average cost of producing natural gas
from shale varies from region to region but tends to range between $2 and $3 per thousand cubic feet of gas, which is about one-half to one-third
the production cost associated with producing natural gas from North American conventional wells (Deutch, 2011). Due to the young technology
associated with recovering natural gas from shale plays, there are opportunities for reducing the extraction cost further with operating experience
and additional technical advancements. The largest shale plays across the United States are the Marcellus in New York and Pennsylvania, the
Barnett and Haynesville in Texas, and the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana (Kargbo, Wilhelm, Campbell, 2010). Technically recoverable,
usingtoday’s technology without considering economic constraints, natural gas reserves from shale is estimated to be in the 600 to 700 trillion
cubic feet range out of a total of 2,500 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable natural gas from all sources (Deutch, 2011).
The shift from oil to natural gas is a shift that could be made in a much shorter time frame than a
shift to renewable type energy sources. There is an economic incentive for using natural gas over oil
in the United States as oil is three times more costly than natural gas at about $12 per million Btu for
oil and $4 per million Btu for natural gas (Deutch, 2011). Natural gas has another added benefit over oil in being a
cleaner burning fuel. Natural gas releases 117,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per billion Btu of
energy input whereas oil emits 164,000 pounds of carbon dioxide per billion Btu of energy input
(NaturalGas.org, 2011). A nearly 29% carbon dioxide emission reduction is achieved just by switching fuel source
from oil to natural gas. This is just the reduction from burning these fuels. When the emissions from transportation are
factored in, natural gas is an even bigger winner in carbon dioxide emissions over oil. Natural gas emits fewer
other pollutants than oil as well, such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and mercury (NaturalGas.org,
2011). The challenge for natural gas to replace oil as the primary fuel for transportation is similar to challenges faced by other alternatives to oil,
the refueling infrastructure. This hurdle is easily overcome by fleet service vehicles that operate in a designated area and can be refueled
centrally. Many U.S. cities have begun converting buses and other city vehicle to run on compressed natural gas instead of diesel or gasoline due
to the lower cost and emission benefits received. The lack of refueling stations is a somewhat more difficult hurdle for the conversion of personal
vehicles from gasoline or diesel to compressed natural gas though not as difficult as it may seem at first look. Many homes have natural gas
service, and there are existing natural gas pipelines running under virtually every city. Though an economically viable solution has yet to be
discovered, the possibility of installing refueling stations in homes with natural gas service and at service stations alongside gasoline pumps, is
not out of the realm of possibility.
In order to reduce its dependence on foreign oil, the United States must not only replace some of the gasoline and diesel consumption but also
replace other products oil is used to make. Economic pressures could spur the development of new processes in the chemical sector to incorporate
natural gas instead of oil in the production of polymers, plastics, and other petrochemicals. This economic pressure would almost certainly come
with the wide scale transition of transportation fuel to natural gas from oil, reducing the demand for gasoline and diesel. This would reduce
overall demand for oil and create a shortage of oil for the chemical sector uses.
Electric power generation and industry is another area where natural gas has huge potential to
replace fuel oil as a peaking fuel. It reduces demand for another product produced from oil, and coal as a base load fuel, which
provides an opportunity to reduce fewer greenhouse gas emissions. According to the Energy Information Administration’s ‘Emission of
Greenhouse Gases’ report in December 2009, 81.3% of greenhouse gas emissions in the Unites States came from energy-related carbon dioxide.
Natural gas is the cleanest of all fossil fuels (NaturalGas.org, 2011). While natural
gas could reduce the emission of the
greenhouse gas carbon dioxide by almost 30% when replacing oil and just under 45% when
replacing coal, methane itself is a much more harmful greenhouse gas in terms of its ability to trap heat. While methane emissions
account for only 1.1% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, when weighed by global warming potential, methane
emissions account for 8.5% of the greenhouse gas emissions (NaturalGas.org, 2011). Methane
emissions occur from the waste management industry, agricultural industry, and leaks from the oil and
gas industry. A study was conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency and the Gas Research
Institute to determine if potential increase in methane emissions would outweigh any reduction in
carbon dioxide emissions resulting from natural gas replacing coal and oil as a fuel source for
electric power generation. The conclusion from this study shows the reduction in carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gasses from increased natural gas usage would far outweigh the potential
negative effects of increased methane emissions. Researchers from Carnegie Mellon University released a report in
2011 showing natural gas wells in the Marcellus region emit 20% to 50% less greenhouse gases than coal used
in electric power generation.
Methane hydrates are better than fossil fuels and makes way for a sustainable
switch to renewables
Rennie 11—John, 2011 [Energy from Methane Hydrates: Better to Burn Out than Fade Away] POS
Blogs, Diverse Perspectives on Science and Medicine http://blogs.plos.org/retort/2011/06/01/energyfrom-methane-hydrates-better-to-burn-out-than-fade-away/
Expanded natural gas development is not ideal from a climate change perspective. Burning natural gas for energy is more appealing than using oil
or coal because it produces less CO2 and other particulates—but on a rapidly growing global industrial scale, it still will contribute a lot. The
best result for the environment would be for natural gas to grow as a transitional energy source
while solar, wind and other green alternatives become still less expensive and more practical. (And
making that transition may be a challenge in itself once natural gas is still more entrenched.) Whether methane hydrates can or will play a part in
that strategy remains to be seen.
But methane hydrates are not just a resource. They remain, more darkly, one of the veiled menaces whose existence should urge action on the
climate. The deep hydrate formations that developers might tap seem reasonably secure against big unwanted releases of methane—but the more
shallow deposits on parts of the seafloor and under the Siberian and North American permafrosts are not. If
global temperatures
continue to rise, and if the oceans (which absorb most of the trapped greenhouse-effect heat) rise in temperature by a
few degrees Celsius, then those more exposed methane hydrates will begin to decompose on their
own. How much methane they could abruptly burp into the atmosphere is uncertain, and may depend on
the precise circumstances. But any additional atmospheric methane will be unwanted and could greatly accelerate greenhouse effects for a few
decades, further complicating any efforts to adapt to the new climate.
Maybe Neil Young’s lyric “It’s better to burn out than fade away” captures the odd paradox of
methane hydrates best. Better to burn some of their methane in the short run, and suffer a CO2-driven
aggravation of greenhouse problems en route to a more sustainable energy solution , than to continue with the energy status
quo and wait for melting hydrates to worsen the climate problem for us.
2AC—MH Release Accelerates Warming
MH release now would result in short term catastrophic warming
Iyer & Rupke 13—Scientists with the American Geophysical Union. [“Modeling fluid flow in
sedimentary basins with sill intrusions: Implications for hydrothermal venting and global climate
change,” K.H. Iyer and L. Rupke, American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013.] // AG
In recent years, the emplacement of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs) has been closely linked with
past climate variations and mass extinctions. The hypothesis is that organic matter present within
contact aureole of the surrounding sedimentary rock such as shale undergoes thermal maturation and
releases greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide due to the emplacement of hot igneous
bodies. These gases are then vented into the atmosphere through hydrothermal pipe structures
resulting in climate change. Although, basin-scale estimates of potential methane generation show that
these processes alone could trigger global incidents, the rates at which these gases are released into the
atmosphere and the transport mechanism are quantitatively unknown. We use a 2D, hybrid FEM/FVM
model that solves for fully compressible fluid flow to quantify the thermogenic release of methane and to
evaluate flow patterns within these systems. In addition, methane transport within the system is
tracked enabling us to constrain the rate of release of methane from the basin surface. The
important outcomes of this study are: (1) the location of hydrothermal vents is directly controlled by the
flow pattern, even in systems with no vigorous convection, without the explicit need for explosive
degassing and/or boiling effects. The merging of fluid flow from the bottom and top edges of the sill
result in hydrothermal plumes positioned at the lateral edges of the sill and is consistent with geological
observations. (2) Methane generation potential in systems with fluid flow does not significantly differ
from that estimated in diffusive systems, e.g. 2200 to 3350 Gt CH4 can be potentially generated within
the Vøring and Møre basins with a sediment TOC content of 5 wt% and varying permeability structure.
On the other hand, methane venting at the surface occurs in three distinct stages and can last for
hundreds of thousands of years. Also, not all of the methane reaches the surface as some may still
be trapped beneath an impermeable sill. (3) The model results demonstrate that although the total
quantity of methane that may be potentially generated within the contact aureole may have indeed
influenced past climate variations, the rate at which this methane is released into the atmosphere is too
slow to trigger, by itself, the negative δ13C excursions observed in the fossil record over short time scales
(< 10,000 years). For e.g., the PETM is associated with the formation of the North Atlantic igneous
province and is characterized by a δ13C incursion of -2 to -3‰ over 10,000 years. The model results
demonstrate that with a TOC content of 5 wt%, ~2200 Gt of methane is released within 10,000
years from the Vøring and Møre basins and results in a δ13C excursion of only -1.2‰. It is,
therefore, likely that methane from organic cracking in sediments during sill intrusion in
conjunction with other processes such as volcanic degassing and the destabilization of sub-surface
methane hydrate is responsible for such short term catastrophic climate change.
2AC—Mapping K2 Warming
Exploration of MHs key to determine effects of global warming—US key because of
the BOEM
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 15-16,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Methane hydrate resource assessments that indicate enormous global volumes of methane present
within hydrate accumulations have been one of the primary driving forces behind the growing
interest in methane hydrates (as reviewed by Boswell and Collett, 2011). For the most part, these
estimates range over several orders of magnitude, creating great uncertainty in the role methane
hydrates may play as an energy resource or as a factor in global climate change. In recent years,
field production tests combined with advanced numerical simulation have shown that hydrates in sand
reservoirs are the most feasible initial targets for energy recovery, thus bringing focus to the type of future
hydrate assessments to be conducted. It has also been shown that with regard to the climate
implications of methane hydrates, there is growing need to accurately assess what portion of the
global methane hydrate endowment is most prone to disturbance under future warming scenarios.
Generally, the reported global hydrate assessments include the assessment of a set of minimum source‐
rock criteria such as organic richness, sediment thickness, and thermal maturity as they apply to both
microbial and thermogenic gas sources. In several of the more recent assessments, the hydrate resource
volume estimates have also considered the nature of the sediments that host the hydrates. For example, in
2008, the Minerals Management Service (MMS), now known as Bureau of Ocean Energy
Management (BOEM), estimated that the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) contains about 190 trillion cubic
meters (~6,710 trillion cubic feet) of gas in highly concentrated hydrate accumulations within sand
reservoirs (Frye, 2008). Furthermore, the MMS assessment indicated that reservoir‐quality sands may be
more common in the shallow sediments of the methane hydrate stability zone than previously thought.
One of the most important emerging goals of methane hydrate research and development activities
is the identification and quantification of the amount of technically and economically recoverable
natural gas that might be stored within methane hydrate accumulations. A number of new
quantitative estimates of in‐place methane hydrate volumes (Klauda and Sandler, 2005; Frye, 2008;
Wood and Jung, 2008; Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, 2012) and, for the first time, technical
recoverable (Collett et al., 2008; Fujii et al., 2008) assessments, have been undertaken using petroleum
systems concepts developed for conventional oil and natural gas exploration. For example, in an
assessment of methane hydrate resources on the North Slope of Alaska, Collett et al. (2008) indicated that
there are about 2.42 trillion cubic meters (~85.4 trillion cubic feet) of technically recoverable methane
resources within concentrated, sand‐dominated, methane hydrate accumulations in northern Alaska.
Antarctic hydrate exploration key to determine global warming affects
Maslin et al 10—Department of Geography at the University of Bristol. [“Review Gas hydrates: past
and future geohazard?” Mark Maslin, Matthew Owen, Richard Betts, Simon Day, Tom Dunkley Jones,
and Andrew Ridgwell, Philosophical Transaction Royal Society, Volume 368, 2010, pp 2369, DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2010.0065, accessed from Emory] // AG
Gas hydrates are ice-like deposits containing a mixture of water and gas; the most common gas is
methane. Gas hydrates are stable under high pressures and relatively low temperatures and are found
underneath the oceans and in permafrost regions. Estimates range from 500 to 10000 giga tonnes of
carbon (best current estimate 1600-2000 GtC) stored in ocean sediments and 400 GtC in Arctic
permafrost. Gas hydrates may pose a serious geohazard in the near future owing to the adverse
effects of global warming on the stability of gas hydrate deposits both in ocean sediments and in
permafrost. It is still unknown whether future ocean warming could lead to significant methane release,
as thermal penetration of marine sediments to the clathrate-gas interface could be slow enough to allow a
new equilibrium to occur without any gas escaping. Even if methane gas does escape, it is still unclear
how much of this could be oxidized in the overlying ocean. Models of the global inventory of hydrates
and trapped methane bubbles suggest that a global 3?C warming could release between 35 and 940
GtC, which could add up to an additional 0.5?C to global warming. The destabilization of gas hydrate
reserves in permafrost areas is more certain as climate models predict that high-latitude regions will be
disproportionately affected by global warming with temperature increases of over 12?C predicted for
much of North America and Northern Asia. Our current estimates of gas hydrate storage in the
Arctic region are, however, extremely poor and non-existent for Antarctica . The shrinking of both
the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in response to regional warming may also lead to
destabilization of gas hydrates. As ice sheets shrink, the weight removed allows the coastal region
and adjacent continental slope to rise through isostacy. This removal of hydrostatic pressure could
destabilize gas hydrates, leading to massive slope failure, and may increase the risk of tsunamis.
---Mapping K2 Warming
MH expedition key to predicting methane release from global warming
Bollmann et al 10—Lead scientist for World Ocean Review. [“Climate change impacts on methane
hydrates,” Moritz Bollmann, World Ocean Review, 2010, http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/oceanchemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/] // AG
Various methods are employed to predict the future development. These include, in particular,
mathematic modelling. Computer models first calculate the hypo-thetical amount of methane
hydrates in the sea floor using background data (organic content, pressure, temperature). Then the
computer simulates the warming of the seawater, for instance, by 3 or 5 degrees Celsius per 100 years. In
this way it is possible to determine how the methane hydrate will behave in different regions.
Calculations of methane hydrate deposits can than be coupled with complex mathematical climate
and ocean models. With these computer models we get a broad idea of how strongly the methane
hydrates would break down under the various scenarios of temperature increase. Today it is assumed
that in the worst case, with a steady warming of the ocean of 3 degrees Celsius, around 85 per cent of the
methane trapped in the sea floor could be released into the water column.
Other, more sensitive models predict that methane hydrates at great water depths are not threatened by
warming. According to these models, only the methane hydrates that are located directly at the boundaries
of the stability zones would be primarily affected. At these locations, a temperature increase of only 1
degree -Celsius would be sufficient to release large amounts of methane from the hydrates. The
methane hydrates in the open ocean at around 500 metres of water depth, and deposits in the shallow
regions of the Arctic would mainly be affected.
In the course of the Earth’s warming, it is also expected that sea level will rise due to melting of the polar
ice caps and glacial ice. This inevitably results in greater pressure at the sea floor. The increase in
pressure, however, would not be sufficient to counteract the effect of increasing temperature to dissolve
the methane hydrates. According to the latest calculations, a sea-level rise of ten metres could slow down
the methane-hydrate dissolution caused by a warming of one degree Celsius only by a few decades.
A wide variety of mathematical models are used to predict the consequences of global warming.
The results of the simulations are likewise very variable. It is therefore difficult to precisely
evaluate the consequences of global warming for the gas hydrate deposits, not least of all because of
the large differences in the calculations of the size of the present-day gas hydrate deposits. One major
goal of the current gas hydrate research is to -optimize these models by using ever more precise input
parameters . In order to achieve this, further measurements, expeditions, drilling and analyses are
essential.
***Plan Solves***
2AC—US Coast Key
Exploration of Gulf of Mexico and US Atlantic coast line key to MH research
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 13-14,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
7 Marine Methane Hydrate Field Research Plan
Following the methane hydrate workshop, the Marine Methane Hydrate Field Research Plan was
built around the most important outstanding scientific and technical challenges associated with the
occurrence of methane hydrates as identified by the community. Once completed, the plan was
distributed to the community and may be found at www.oceanleadership.org/methane. The plan is
summarized below with a culmination of a series of recommendations. The Science Plan also features the
development of conceptual plans for scientific drilling expeditions that could yield the data and
information needed to address these challenges. The individual challenges identified and described in
the Science Plan are grouped under four lead challenges:
‐Methane Hydrate Resource Assessment and Global Carbon Cycle
‐The Challenge of Producing Methane Hydrate
‐Methane Hydrate Related Geohazards
‐Modeling, Laboratory, and Field System Requirements and Integration
Broadly, these challenges target understanding geologic controls on the occurrence and stability of
methane hydrates in natural systems that impact their potential as an economic energy resource,
their role as possible geohazards, and the impact they may have on global climate change. Methane
hydrates studies require the development and integration of new modeling, laboratory, and field
measurement systems and protocols.
Scientific drilling is an invaluable tool for studying methane hydrate systems in nature. This Science Plan
describes and proposes a series of eight topical‐based scientific drilling programs, deployed as part of a
well‐organized, global‐based effort to help answer the outstanding methane hydrate scientific and
technical challenges:
‐Fully Parameterize Global Carbon Cycle Using Wells of Opportunity
‐High Methane Hydrate Concentrations in Sand Reservoirs: Resource Assessments and Global
Carbon Cycle
‐Global Carbon Cycle – High Flux Settings
‐Response of Methane Hydrate System to Perturbations at the Upper Edge of Stability
‐Preconditioning of Areas for Slope Failure with High Methane Hydrate Saturations
‐Characterization of Geohazards Associated with Methane Hydrate Related Features
‐Methane Hydrate Production Related Geohazards
‐Methane Hydrate Response to Natural Perturbations
This Methane Hydrate Research Science Plan concludes with a series of recommendations
concerning the most important methane hydrate research challenges and how scientific drilling can
advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature. Below are listed the most critical program
planning recommendations as developed under the COL‐led review effort:
‐The top priorities for dedicated scientific drilling are: (1) an expedition designed to further our
understanding of the highly concentrated sand‐rich methane hydrate reservoirs in the Gulf of
Mexico and (2) a drilling program designed to characterize the methane hydrate systems along
the Atlantic margin of the United States.
2AC—EM Detection K2 Mapping
EM detection key to geohazard assessment, resource evaluation, and global climate
studies
Weitemeyer 08—Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San
Diego. [“Marine Electromagnetic Methods for Gas Hydrate Characterization,” Weitemeyer, Karen A,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 11/24/2008, pp 1] // AG
Imaging, quantifying and understanding the distribution of hydrate is important for geohazard
assessment, resource evaluation, and global climate studies. Remote detection of gas hydrate is
unreliable with seismic methods alone and the use of electromagnetic (EM) methods (controlled
source electromagnetic and magnetotelluric soundings) to augment seismic data collected over hydrates
can provide additional information to constrain the areal extent of hydrate. EM methods image the bulk
resistivity structure of the subsurface and may provide valuable information about gas hydrate
distribution. EM soundings are possibly the only non-invasive technique capable of quantifying the
amount of hydrate present in an area. The EM techniques can be employed to image gas hydrates if a
resistivity contrast is present, and also map any geologic structures and fluid pathways that allow methane
to migrate to the seafloor and form hydrate.
***Impact***
2AC—Hydrates K2 Methane Release
Ocean hydrates have largest potential for methane release
Archer 07—Professor of the Global carbon cycle, climate change, and aqueous chemistry at the
University of Chicago. [“Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change,” Biogeosciecnes
Discuss, 07/25/2007, pp 537-538] // AG
The most vulnerable hydrate deposits in the ocean appear to be the structural type, in which
methane gas flows in the subsurface, along faults or channels, perhaps to accumulate to high
concentrations in domes or underneath impermeable sedimentary layers. The structural deposits have
two distinguishing characteristics that may affect their potential for methane release . First, they
produce “massive” methane hydrates, displacing the sediment to generate large chunks of hydrate,
potentially filling tens of percent of the volume of the sediment (Trehu et al., 2004), as opposed to just
a few percent as in the stratigraphic-type hydrate deposits. The significance of this is that a large chunk of
hydrate is more likely to survive an ascent to the sea surface, if it escapes the sediment column as a result
of a submarine landslide (Brewer et al., 2002; Paull et al., 2003) or simply by breaking off from the
sediment surface (Macdonald et al., 1994). The other important characteristic of structural hydrate
deposits is that the hydrate can be found at shallower depths in the sediment, in general, than is
typical for the stratigraphic-type deposits. Methane hydrates are found at the sediment surface in
the Gulf of Mexico (Macdonald et al., 1994) and Hydrate Ridge. Hydrate deposits of these
characteristics is also often associated with mud volcanoes.
2AC—MH Release Causes Extinction
Methane hydrate release comparable to nuclear winter
Archer 07—Professor of the Global carbon cycle, climate change, and aqueous chemistry at the
University of Chicago. [“Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change,” Biogeosciecnes
Discuss, 07/25/2007, pp 537] // AG
4.1 Capacity for doomsday
There is so much methane as hydrates on Earth that it seems like a perfect ingredient for a climate
doomsday scenario. Hydrate is unstable at Earth surface conditions, both because of the low
atmospheric methane concentration and because most of the Earth’s surface is warmer than the
freezing point of methane hydrate at one atmosphere pressure. The hydrate reservoir contains
thousands of Gton C of methane, enough that releasing a small fraction of the methane directly to the
atmosphere, within a time window that is short relative to the atmospheric lifetime of methane, could
increase the methane concentration of the atmosphere by a factor of 100 to 1000 over pre-anthropogenic
values. Methane absorbs infrared light between about 1250 and 1350 cm−1, a frequency range at which
terrestrial radiation is less intense than it is in the absorption band of the CO2 bending mode, about 600–
700 cm−1. A massive increase in methane concentration therefore has a smaller impact on the radiative
balance of the Earth than would a comparable increase in CO2, but nevertheless the greenhouse forcing
from the methane increase could be catastrophic, equivalent to increasing CO2 by a factor of 10 or
more. The methane hydrate reservoir therefore has the potential to warm Earth’s climate to
Eocene hothouse-type conditions, within just a few years. The potential for planetary devastation
posed by the methane hydrate reservoir therefore seems comparable to the destructive potential
from nuclear winter or from a bolide impact.
Methane burp causes extinction
Kristof 06—Law degree from Harvard, winner of the Pulitzer Prize, and journalist for the NYTimes.
[“The Big Burp Theory of the Apocalypse,” Nicholas D. Kristof, The New York Times, April 18th, 2006] //
AG
Methane is a greenhouse gas that is 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide. And thousands of
gigatons of methane, equivalent to the total amount of coal in the world, lie deep within the oceans
in the form of ice-like solids called methane hydrates.
The big question is whether global warming -- temperatures have risen about one degree Fahrenheit over
the last 30 years -- will thaw some of these methane hydrates. If so, the methane might be released as a
gargantuan oceanic burp. Once in the atmosphere, that methane would accelerate the greenhouse
effect and warm the earth and raise sea levels even more.
''The juiciest disaster-movie scenario would be a release of enough methane to significantly change the
atmospheric concentration,'' suggests the excellent discussion of methane hydrates by scholars at
www.realclimate.org.
One reason for concern about a methane hydrate apocalypse is that something like it may have
happened several times in the past. For example, 251 million years ago, there was a catastrophe
known as the Permian extinction that came close to wiping out life on earth.
Nobody is sure what caused the Permian extinction, but one theory is that it was methane burps.
And as long as I'm fear-mongering, there was also a better understood warming 55 million years ago,
known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, or PETM. That was a period when temperatures
shot up by 10 degrees Fahrenheit in the tropics and by about 15 degrees in polar areas, and many
scientists think it was caused by the melting of methane hydrates.
''The PETM event 55 million years ago is probably the most likely example of their impact, though there
are smaller events dotted through the record,'' says Gavin Schmidt, a NASA expert on climate change.
He emphasizes the uncertainties, but adds that since we are likely to enter a climate that hasn't been seen
for a few million years, it's reasonable to worry about methane hydrates.
---MH Release Causes Extinction
Methane release causes extinction
World Wildlife Fund 10—[“Drilling for Oil in the Artic: Too Soon, Too Risky,” World Wildlife
Fund, 1 December 2010, pp 5-6,
http://assets.worldwildlife.org/publications/393/files/original/Drilling_for_Oil_in_the_Arctic_Too_Soon_
Too_Risky.pdf?1345753131] // AG
The Arctic and the subarctic regions surrounding it are important for many reasons. One is their
enormous biological diversity: a kaleidoscopic array of land and seascapes supporting millions of
migrating birds and charismatic species such as polar bears, walruses, narwhals and sea otters.
Economics is another: Alaskan fisheries are among the richest in the world. Their $2.2 billion in
annual catch fills the frozen food sections and seafood counters of supermarkets across the nation.
However, there is another reason why the Arctic is not just important, but among the most important
places on the face of the Earth. A keystone species is generally defined as one whose removal from an
ecosystem triggers a cascade of changes affecting other species in that ecosystem. The same can be
said of the Arctic in relation to the rest of the world.
With feedback mechanisms that affect ocean currents and influence climate patterns, the Arctic
functions like a global thermostat. Heat balance, ocean circulation patterns and the carbon cycle are all
related to its regulatory and carbon storage functions. Disrupt these functions and we effect far-reaching
changes in the conditions under which life has existed on Earth for thousands of years. In the context of
climate change, the Arctic is a keystone ecosystem for the entire planet.
Drilling for Oil in the Arctic
Unfortunately, some of these disruptions are happening already as climate change melts sea ice and
thaws the Arctic tundra. The Arctic’s sea ice cover reflects sunlight and therefore heat. As the ice
melts, that heat is absorbed by the salt water, whose temperature, salinity and density all begin to
change in ways that impact global ocean circulation patterns. On land, beneath the Arctic tundra,
are immense pools of frozen methane —a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide. As
the tundra thaws, the risk of this methane escaping increases .4
Were this to happen, the consequences would be dire and global in scope. As we continue not just to
spill but to burn the fossil fuels that cause climate change, we are nudging the Arctic toward a meltdown
that will make sea levels and temperatures rise even faster, with potentially catastrophic consequences
for all life on Earth—no matter where one lives it.
For the sake of the planet, losing the Arctic is not an option. Mitigating the impact of climate change
there ultimately depends upon our getting serious about replacing fossil fuels with non-carbon-based
renewable energies. Until we demonstrate the will and good sense to do that, however, the Arctic needs to
be protected from other environmental threats that, compounded by the stress of climate change,
undermine its resiliency and hasten its demise. Chief among those threats is offshore drilling—especially
in the absence of any credible and tested means of responding effectively to a major spill.
Methane release causes extinction.
Munro 11—Margaret Munro November 18, 2011, [Greenhouse gas ravaged Earth once before: study;
U of C scientist publishes finding of extinction event] The Calgary Herald (Alberta) Postmedia News
A massive release of greenhouse gases probably caused the world's worst extinction, according to an
international team that has been poring over the remains. About 95 per cent of Earth's marine life and 70 per cent of
terrestrial species were wiped out as wildfires roared across the landscape, the oceans acidified and
temperatures soared more than 250 million years ago, the scientists say.
And the evidence points to a "runaway greenhouse event," says geoscientist Charles Henderson, of the University of
Calgary. He is the Canadian co-author of the study, to be published today in the journal Science, that gives the most detailed picture yet of how
the Permian mass extinction unfolded. Henderson says it is important to understand what transpired, given the concerns that modern greenhouse
gas emissions might also trigger runaway global warming. Carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is the big concern today. In the Permian, the
scientists say volcanoes appear to have been the culprit, releasing "massive" amounts of CO2 and
methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Henderson says red-hot lava spewed across a region the size of Western
Europe at the end of the Permian, when there was just one land mass called Pangea and the
continents had not yet formed. He says the enormous lava flows would have ignited coal and other
combustibles, sending carbon dioxide wafting into the atmosphere and also may have melted frozen
gas hydrates and released huge stores of methane. "It then cascades into this series of disasters that
continue until most things are extinct," Henderson says.
He says the geological and fossil record point to several possible "kill mechanisms" as the disaster unfolded, including fires, acidification, as well
as loss of oxygen in the oceans, and perhaps even hypercapnia, which sees too much CO2 build up in the blood and can be lethal.
The research team, led by Shuzhong Shen at China's Nanjing Institute of Geology and Paleontology, has spent years combing through the
evidence preserved in sedimentary rocks and volcanic ash beds at several locations in China that formed as the extinction unfolded. The scientists
found the distinct signature of "widespread wildfires" and changes in the ocean chemistry that coincide with a spike in carbon 12, a form of
carbon common to volcanoes and gas hydrates.
They also looked at 1,450 species, from fish to ferns, that vanished during the extinction, which peaked 252.28 million years ago and took close
to 200,000 years to play out. Small eel-like creatures, called conodonts, helped the researchers piece together what transpired, says Henderson,
who visits China each year to collect and study fossils of the creature's tiny teeth. "We can use them as time clocks," says Henderson, who is also
charting the evolution and fate of conodonts in the Arctic and in Western Canada. He says the world's climate at the end of the Permian changed
dramatically. "It
went from basically like today, where you had hot tropics and cooler polar regions, to a
world in which everything was a tropics," he says.
2AC—Extinction Empirically Proven
Methane release only plausible explanation for Permian extinction
Dickens 11—Department of Geological Sciences at Stockholm University, PhD in Oceanography from
the University of Michigan. [“Down the Rabbit Hole: toward appropriate discussion of methane release
from gas hydrate systems during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum and other past hyperthermal
events,” G. R. Dickens, Climate Past, Volume 7, pp 831, 5 August 2011, accessed through Emory] // AG
Enormous amounts of 13C-depleted carbon rapidly entered the exogenic carbon cycle during the onset of
the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), as attested to by a prominent negative carbon isotope (
13C) excursion and deep-sea carbonate dissolution. A widely cited explanation for this carbon input
has been thermal dissociation of gas hydrate on continental slopes, followed by release of CH4 from
the seafloor and its subsequent oxidation to CO2 in the ocean or atmosphere. Increasingly, papers have
argued against this mechanism, but without fully considering existing ideas and available data.
Moreover, other explanations have been presented as plausible alternatives, even though they
conflict with geological observations, they raise major conceptual problems, or both. Methane
release from gas hydrates remains a congruous explanation for the 13C excursion across the
PETM , although it requires an unconventional framework for global carbon and sulfur cycling, and it
lacks proof. These issues are addressed here in the hope that they will prompt appropriate discussions
regarding the extraordinary carbon injection at the start of the PETM and during other events in Earth’s
history.
Permian extinction carbon levels consistent with MH release
Carozza et al 11—Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at McGill University, Ph.D.,
Earth and Planetary Sciences from McGill University. [“Methane and environmental change during the
Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM): Modeling the PETM onset as a two-stage event,” David
A. Carozza, Lawrence A. Mysak, and Gavin A. Schmidt, Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 38, 1
March 2011, pp 4, accessed through Emory] // AG
[17] Stage 2 results are consistent with a release of methane hydrate, where oxidation of CH4 takes
place in both the ocean and the atmosphere. Oceanic oxidation of CH4 is required to generate the
abrupt shoaling of the Atlantic lysocline, while a concurrent emission of CH4 to the atmosphere is
required to reproduce the surface temperature change record. For 3°C of warming, 30 to 45% of the
total carbon release is oxidized in the ocean, which is consistent with Zeebe et al. [2009]. Furthermore,
the Pacific lysocline shoals by less than 0.1 km throughout stages 1 and 2 (Figure 3), and thus agrees with
the large observed lysocline shoaling difference between the Atlantic and Pacific [Zeebe et al., 2009]. For
CH4 to reproduce the characteristics of stage 2, however, it must be abruptly released. These
results are therefore consistent with a catastrophic release of methane hydrate from sediment,
followed by the oxidation of a part of this CH4 in the water column and the escape of the remaining CH4
to the atmosphere.
---Extinction Empircically Proven
MH release caused the largest extinction on Earth
Retallack & Jahren 08—Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Oregon.
[“Methane Release from Igneous Intrusion of Coal during Late Permian Extinction Events,” Gregory J.
Retallack and A. Hope Jahren, The Journal of Geology, Volume 116, Number 1, January 2008, accessed
through Emory] // AG
The greatest of all known mass extinctions at the Permian-Triassic boundary and another mass
extinction at the end of the Guadalupian Epoch (Stanley and Yang 1994) are dated at 252.6 and 260.4
Ma, respectively (Gradstein et al. 2004; Mundil et al. 2004). Both mass extinctions were pronounced
disruptions of the global carbon cycle, as indicated by worldwide excursions in isotopic values of
carbon in carbonate, bone, and organic matter (Payne et al. 2004; Retallack et al. 2006a). Organic
carbon isotope values (d13C) in both marine and nonmarine strata show marked and locally very variable
excursions averaging 6.4‰4.4‰ at 253 Ma (31 examples tabulated by Retallack and Krull [2006]) and
4.0‰4.1‰ at 260 Ma (10 examples tabulated by Retallack et al. [2006a]). Global perturbations of this
magnitude on land and in the sea are feasible only with release to the atmosphere of methane
because of its unusually low carbon isotopic values (averaging 60‰; Clayton 1998). Mass balance
modeling by Berner (2002) shows that the amount of methane needed to explain global isotopic
excursions of this magnitude is some 2000 Gt (1 Gt p 1015 g), more than current amounts of carbon in all
living organisms and soil humus today (Siegenthaler and Sarmiento 1993). Because carbon of
volcanoes, air, soils, plants, and most meteorites has much higher isotopic values, the amounts of
carbon needed to create such excursions from those sources are larger still, and hence implausible
(Retallack and Krull 2006).
Here we examine local variation in end-Permian and end-Guadalupian isotopic excursions on
paleogeographic maps as a guide to sources of this isotopically distinct gas. We also reexamine the
rapidity of Permian-Triassic isotopic excursions by counting laminations interpreted as annual varves and
estimating accumulation rates of coals derived from woody peats through documented carbon iso-tope
excursions in Permian-Triassic boundary sequences of Australia and Antarctica. These data support the
idea of methane release to the atmosphere from thermogenic alteration of coal during basaltic
intrusion, as recently proposed for marked negative carbon isotope anomalies at 55 (Svensen et al.
2004) and 182 Ma (McElwain et al. 2005; Svensen et al. 2007).
Hints that Late Permian carbon isotope excursions were rapid have come from U/Pb zircon dating at
Meishan, China, where two carbon isotope excursions of 4.6‰ (Xu and Yan 1993; Jin et al. 2000) lie
between tuffs dated at 251.40.3 and 250.70.3Ma (Bowring et al.1998). These two isotopic excursions
would have taken about 700 kyr— no more than 1300 kyr and no less than 100 kyr at extremes of
dating error (2j)—and this conclusion is not significantly altered by slightly older (ca. 2- Ma) ages
for these samples given by Mundil et al. (2004). Similarly, assumed Milankovitch cycles in the
Gartnerkofel core of the Carnic Alps, Austria (Rampino et al. 2000), were used to calculate a rock
accumulation rate of 10 cm kyr1. Using that rate, the most marked carbon isotopic excursion was within
60 kyr. Both Meishan and Gartnerkofel marine carbonate records millennial-scale (kyr) temporal
resolution of the carbon isotopic excursion because of mixing of isotopically light bicarbonate with a
large reservoir of oceanic bicarbonate before precipitation as carbonate (Berner 2002). A more precise
estimate of a comparable isotopic excursion comes from organic carbon in evaporites with annual
varves in the Delaware Basin of Texas at the end of the Guadalupian Epoch. In theUNMPhillips 1
core, an isotopic excursion of 2.5‰ d13Corganic within 5 kyr was followed immediately by an excursion
of 3.8‰ d13Corganic within 10 kyr (Magaritz et al. 1983). This estimate of duration across the
Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary, like estimates presented here using comparable varve analysis,
is an order of magnitude shorter than U/Pb or wavelet estimates and constrains mechanisms for
global Late Permian carbon isotope excursions.
Hydrates caused past extinctions
Glasby 03—G.P. Glasby 2003 [Potential impact on climate of the exploitation of methane hydrate
deposits offshore] Marine and Petroleum Geology Volume 20, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 163–175
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264817203000217
Palaeovariations in atmospheric methane concentrations have been studied by analyzing concentrations of methane in trapped gases in ice cores.
abrupt increases in methane concentrations have been coeval with most of the
interstadial warming events during the last 110 ka (Brook, Sowers, & Orchardo, 1996). However, it was concluded that
the magnitude of the methane increases was insufficient to account for the extent of atmospheric warming and that about 50 Tg of
methane per year (37 Mt of methane carbon) would have needed to be introduced into the atmosphere to
account for these temperature increases. This would require the dissociation of about 370 Mt of
methane hydrates. During the Storrega Slide off Norway, 1700 km3 (equivalent to about 106 Mt) of sediment slumped into the deep sea
The data show that
(Mienert, Posewang, & Baumann, 1998). The sediment would have needed to have contained the equivalent of 0.04% of methane hydrates to
generate this amount of methane.
In a detailed study of the abrupt climate change at the end of the Younger Dryas cold interval (11.6 ka), it was
confirmed that atmospheric warming coincided with a prominent rise in atmospheric methane
concentrations (Severinghaus, Sowers, Brook, Alley, & Bender, 1998). It was considered that the methane increase
began 0–30 years after the onset of warming (Severinghaus et al., 1998, Fig. 4) as a result of methane release from wetlands.
However, inspection of Severinghaus et al. (1998, Fig. 4) shows that the first high methane concentration coincided
exactly with the onset of the warming period. There was then a sharp drop in the methane
concentration followed by a slower rise to a plateau. It can therefore equally well be argued that this
first high methane concentration was the result of a massive instantaneous pulse of methane into
the atmosphere following massive sediment slumping on the continental slope. This would have led to a sharp increase in
the atmospheric temperature which would have persisted for less than 10 years. However, this temperature increase could have
been sufficient to lead to warming of the wetlands and a secondary input of methane into the
atmosphere from this source. The atmospheric warming is therefore considered to be a two stage process triggered by a massive release of
methane from methane hydrates as a result of sediment slumping.
2AC—Int’l Shipping & Oil Platforms
MHs hurt international shipping and oil platforms
Maslin et al 10—Department of Geography at the University of Bristol. [“Review Gas hydrates: past
and future geohazard?” Mark Maslin, Matthew Owen, Richard Betts, Simon Day, Tom Dunkley Jones,
and Andrew Ridgwell, Philosophical Transaction Royal Society, Volume 368, 2010, pp 2385-2386, DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2010.0065, accessed from Emory] // AG
Both the occurrence of gas hydrate deposits and predicted oceanic warming vary regionally so there will
be particular areas more vulnerable to gas hydrate destablization. Moreover, ocean temperature
changes can be caused by variations in the location of key ocean currents. Westbrook et al (2009) have
shown large plumes of methane gas bubbles emanating from the seabed west of Svalbard. They suggest
that this is due to the breakdown of gas hydrates caused by a shift and warming of the West Spitzbergen
current. These localized gas plumes could have safety implications for both shipping and marine
oil/gas production . If sufficient methane is released in relatively shallow water, the gas could
produce negative buoyancy and could cause boats/ships to founder. A more likely problem is the
increased risk to oil and gas platforms in deeper water, i.e. between 200 and 1500 m water depth. The
localized increase in intermediate water temperatures could cause gas hydrate to breakdown, which
may lead to significant sediment failure (see below) and/or outgassing, both of which could be
detrimental to the structural safety of the platforms and those working on them. Of course, these
risks will be significantly increased if economic exploitation of marine gas hydrate deposits is
initiated.
2AC—Pipelines
Hydrates wreck sea pipelines
Hovland & Gudmestad 01—Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of
Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [“Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabead
installations,” Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 309-310] // AG
A warm pipeline on the sea bottom, or buried in sediments will warm the surroundings, and will
create a temperature gradient which eventually could cause in-situ gas hydrates to dissociate. The
released methane and water could cause sediment instability and slumping. Under such conditions
the pipeline could rupture if exposed to an excessive free span, or if the stresses in the buried pipeline
become excessive (Figs. 1 and 2). In order to avoid such scenarios, efficient pipeline insulation would be
required. In the case of sea floor instability a buried pipeline is more vulnerable to large stresses than a
pipeline lying directly on the sea floor. The installation of sea floor safety valves will reduce the potential
risk for large oil spills from sea floor pipelines.
Flowlines transporting hot fluids are also prone to upheaval buckling due to thermal expansion and failure
of the stability design (gravel or concrete mattress cover). Any in-situ near surface gas hydrates could
dissociate and render the seafloor "soupy", and thus cause loss of stability and initiate such
unwanted buckling.
2AC—MH Release Bad for Econ
This warming will be enormously harmful to the economy
Oskin 13, Becky. NBC News “Claims of Arctic Methane Disaster Stir Up Controversy.” July 2013.
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/claims-arctic-methane-disaster-stir-controversyf6C10786434
A scientific controversy has erupted over claims that methane trapped beneath the Arctic Ocean could
suddenly escape, releasing huge quantities of methane, a greenhouse gas, in coming decades, with a
huge cost to the global economy. The issue being debated is this: Could the Arctic seafloor really expel
50 billion tons of methane in the next few decades? In a commentary published in the journal Nature
on Wednesday, researchers predicted that the rapid shrinking of Arctic sea ice would warm the
Arctic Ocean, thawing permafrost beneath the East Siberian Sea and releasing methane gas
trapped in the sediments. The big methane belch would come with a $60 trillion price tag, due to
intensified global warming from the added methane in the atmosphere, the authors said. But climate
scientists and experts on methane hydrates, the compound that contains the methane, quickly shot down
the methane-release scenario. "The paper says that their scenario is 'likely.' I strongly disagree," said
Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. The
dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice this summer is just one of the signs global warming has not stopped,
scientists say. An unlikely scenario One line of evidence Schmidt cites comes from ice core records,
which include two warm Arctic periods that occurred 8,000 and 125,000 years ago, he said. There is
strong evidence that summer sea ice was reduced during these periods, and so the methane-release
mechanism (reduced sea ice causes sea floor warming and hydrate melting) could have happened then,
too. But there's no methane pulse in ice cores from either warm period, Schmidt said. "It might be a small
thing that we can't detect, but if it was large enough to have a big climate impact, we would see it,"
Schmidt told LiveScience. David Archer, a climate scientist at the University of Chicago, said no one has
yet proposed a mechanism to quickly release large quantities of methane gas from seafloor sediments into
the atmosphere. "It has to be released within a few years to have much impact on climate, but the
mechanisms for release operate on time scales of centuries and longer," Archer said in an email interview.
Methane has a lifetime of about 10 years in the atmosphere before it starts breaking down into other
compounds. [What are Greenhouse Gases?] Defending new model On Friday, Peter Wadhams, a coauthor of the Nature commentary, defended the work against critics in an essay posted online. "The
mechanism which is causing the observed mass of rising methane plumes in the East Siberian Sea is
itself unprecedented, and the scientists who dismissed the idea of extensive methane release in
earlier research were simply not aware of the new mechanism that is causing it," wrote Wadhams,
an oceanographer at the University of Cambridge in the United Kingdom. On this cross-section
running from onshore to deep-water ocean basin, gas hydrates occur in and beneath permafrost that is
onshore and on continental shelves flooded over the past 15,000 years due to sea level rise. For the deepwater system, the gas hydrate zone vanishes on upper continental slopes before thickening seaward in the
shallow sediments with increasing water depth. "But once the ice disappears, as it has done, the
temperature of the water can rise significantly, and the heat content reaching the seabed can melt
the frozen sediments at a rate that was never before possible," Wadhams added. "David Archer's
2010 comment that 'so far no one has seen or proposed a mechanism to make that (a catastrophic methane
release) happen' was not informed by the ... mechanism described above. Carolyn Ruppel's review of
2011 equally does not reflect awareness of this new mechanism," Wadhams wrote. But Ruppel, a
methane hydrate expert at the U.S. Geological Survey who authored a review of research on gas hydrates
in 2011, also called the sudden-thawing scenario unrealistic. "I would say it's nearly impossible," Ruppel,
chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project in Woods Holes, Mass., told LiveScience. Methane: microbial or
hydrate? Much of the Arctic's methane sits in permafrost buried under hundreds of meters of seafloor
sediments, Ruppel said. The deposits formed on exposed ground during the last Ice Age, when sea levels
were lower. The rising seas have been warming the deposits for millennia. Any added warming will have
to work down through the thick sediment cap. Much of the modeling predictions in the Nature
commentary were based on recent discoveries of rising methane plumes in the East Siberian Sea.
However, those plumes may be from methane hydrates or from microbes. "Methane release in the Arctic
from both marine and terrestrial sources is expected to increase with warming climate, as documented in
numerous papers," Ruppel said. "Much of the methane may actually be produced in the shallow
sediments by microbial processes and be completely unrelated to methane hydrates." However, there has
yet to be a detectable change in Arctic methane emissions in the atmosphere over the past two decades,
Ed Dlugokencky, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Earth
System Research Laboratory, said in an email interview.
***Timeframe***
2AC—Tipping Point for MH Soon
East Siberian Arctic Shelf has tons of methane and is about to release tons of
methane into the atmosphere – the tipping point is soon
NSF 10 [National Science Foundation, March 4th, “Methane Releases From Arctic Shelf May Be Much
Larger and Faster Than Anticipated”,
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=116532&org=NSF&from=news \\NL]
A section of the Arctic Ocean seafloor that holds vast stores of frozen methane is showing signs of
instability and widespread venting of the powerful greenhouse gas, according to the findings of an
international research team led by University of Alaska Fairbanks scientists Natalia Shakhova and Igor
Semiletov.
The research results, published in the March 5 edition of the journal Science, show that the permafrost
under the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, long thought to be an impermeable barrier sealing in methane, is
perforated and is starting to leak large amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Release of even a
fraction of the methane stored in the shelf could trigger abrupt climate warming.
"The amount of methane currently coming out of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is comparable to
the amount coming out of the entire world's oceans," said Shakhova, a researcher at UAF's
International Arctic Research Center. "Subsea permafrost is losing its ability to be an impermeable
cap."
Methane is a greenhouse gas more than 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide. It is released
from previously frozen soils in two ways. When the organic material (which contains carbon) stored in
permafrost thaws, it begins to decompose and, under anaerobic conditions, gradually releases methane.
Methane can also be stored in the seabed as methane gas or methane hydrates and then released as
subsea permafrost thaws. These releases can be larger and more abrupt than those that result from
decomposition.
The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a methane-rich area that encompasses more than 2 million square
kilometers of seafloor in the Arctic Ocean. It is more than three times as large as the nearby Siberian
wetlands, which have been considered the primary Northern Hemisphere source of atmospheric methane.
Shakhova's research results show that the East Siberian Arctic Shelf is already a significant methane
source, releasing 7 teragrams of methane yearly, which is as much as is emitted from the rest of the
ocean. A teragram is equal to about 1.1 million tons.
"Our concern is that the subsea permafrost has been showing signs of destabilization already," she
said. "If it further destabilizes, the methane emissions may not be teragrams, it would be
significantly larger."
Shakhova notes that the Earth's geological record indicates that atmospheric methane concentrations
have varied between about .3 to .4 parts per million during cold periods to .6 to .7 parts per million
during warm periods. Current average methane concentrations in the Arctic average about 1.85
parts per million, the highest in 400,000 years, she said. Concentrations above the East Siberian Arctic
Shelf are even higher.
The East Siberian Arctic Shelf is a relative frontier in methane studies. The shelf is shallow, 50
meters (164 feet) or less in depth, which means it has been alternately submerged or terrestrial,
depending on sea levels throughout Earth's history. During the Earth's coldest periods, it is a
frozen arctic coastal plain, and does not release methane. As the Earth warms and sea level rises, it
is inundated with seawater, which is 12-15 degrees warmer than the average air temperature
"It was thought that seawater kept the East Siberian Arctic Shelf permafrost frozen," Shakhova
said. "Nobody considered this huge area."
"This study is a testament to sustained, careful observations and to international cooperation in research,"
said Henrietta Edmonds of the National Science Foundation, which partially funded the study. "The
Arctic is a difficult place to get to and to work in, but it is important that we do so in order to
understand its role in global climate and its response and contribution to ongoing environmental
change. It is important to understand the size of the reservoir--the amount of trapped methane that
potentially could be released--as well as the processes that have kept it "trapped" and those that
control the release. Work like this helps us to understand and document these processes."
Earlier studies in Siberia focused on methane escaping from thawing terrestrial permafrost. Semiletov's
work during the 1990s showed, among other things, that the amount of methane being emitted from
terrestrial sources decreased at higher latitudes. But those studies stopped at the coast. Starting in the fall
of 2003, Shakhova, Semiletov and the rest of their team took the studies offshore. From 2003 through
2008, they took annual research cruises throughout the shelf and sampled seawater at various depths and
the air 10 meters above the ocean. In September 2006, they flew a helicopter over the same area, taking
air samples at up to 2,000 meters (6,562 feet) in the atmosphere. In April 2007, they conducted a winter
expedition on the sea ice.
They found that more than 80 percent of the deep water and more than 50 percent of surface water
had methane levels more than eight times that of normal seawater. In some areas, the saturation
levels reached more than 250 times that of background levels in the summer and 1,400 times higher
in the winter. They found corresponding results in the air directly above the ocean surface.
Methane levels were elevated overall and the seascape was dotted with more than 100 hotspots.
This, combined with winter expedition results that found methane gas trapped under and in the sea ice,
showed the team that the methane was not only being dissolved in the water, it was bubbling out into
the atmosphere.
These findings were further confirmed when Shakhova and her colleagues sampled methane levels at
higher elevations. Methane levels throughout the Arctic are usually 8 to 10 percent higher than the
global baseline. When they flew over the shelf, they found methane at levels another 5 to 10 percent
higher than the already elevated Arctic levels.
The East Siberian Arctic Shelf, in addition to holding large stores of frozen methane, is more of a
concern because it is so shallow. In deep water, methane gas oxidizes into carbon dioxide before it
reaches the surface. In the shallows of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, methane simply doesn't have
enough time to oxidize, which means more of it escapes into the atmosphere. That, combined with
the sheer amount of methane in the region, could add a previously uncalculated variable to climate
models.
"The release to the atmosphere of only one percent of the methane assumed to be stored in shallow
hydrate deposits might alter the current atmospheric burden of methane up to 3 to 4 times,"
Shakhova said. "The climatic consequences of this are hard to predict."
2AC—A Lot of MH in Ocean
Recent studies show that there is an abundance of methane hydrates under the sea
floor
Rampino 12 [Michael Rampino – Professor of Biology, Ph.D. 1978 (geological sciences), Columbia,
B.A. 1968 (geology), Hunter College; April 9th, “Peraluminous igneous rocks as an indicator of
thermogenic methane release from the North Atlantic Volcanic Province at the time of the Paleocene–
Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)”,
http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/621/art%253A10.1007%252Fs00445-012-0678x.pdf?auth66=1403899241_255bf456fba812923b73b0fc47f35399&ext=.pdf]
A large volcanic methane release solves several problems associated with the methane hydrate
hypothesis. A sustained warming for 200,000 years or more requires a methane release in the order
of 5,000 Gt of carbon (significantly greater than is likely to have been provided by gas hydrates), or a
climate sensitivity to added CO2 significantly beyond the range estimated by Hegerl et al. (2006). To
account for the global negative carbon isotope shift of 3 to 4%.; in ocean surface waters and
atmospheric CO2, however, a carbon release of roughly 4,500 Gt requires that the methane released exhibit a δ C of about -359;. (Panchuk et al. 2008), which is typical of thermogenic methane.
Thus, release of this much methane could explain the climatic and carbon isotopic features of the
PETM. Furthermore, thermogenic methane release requires no external triggering, such as initial
global warming, as does the release of methane hydrates from seafloor sediments.
***Alt Causes***
2AC—AT: Serbian MH Alt Cause
No mechanism for Serbian permafrost MH release
Archer 07—Professor of the Global carbon cycle, climate change, and aqueous chemistry at the
University of Chicago. [“Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change,” Biogeosciecnes
Discuss, 07/25/2007, pp 537] // AG
The Siberian margin is one example of a place where methane hydrate is melting today, presumably
at an accelerated rate in response to anthropogenic warming. This is a special case, where subsurface
hydrates are exposed to the ocean by lateral erosion of coastline. The coastline is receding at rates of tens
of meters per year in parts of Siberia and Alaska, but this is an ongoing process that began with the sea
level rise of the deglaciation (Hubberten and Romanovskii, 2001). The melting of hydrates in this region
releases methane in an ongoing, chronic way, potentially increasing the steady-state methane
concentration of the atmosphere, along with other ongoing anthropogenic methane fluxes. No mechanism
has been proposed whereby a significant fraction of the Siberian permafrost hydrates could release
their methane catastrophically.
2AC—AT: Cattle Alt Cause
Livestock methane emission can be targeted and solved via genetic research in the
status quo
Griffin, 6/18 Science World Report, [Catherine Griffin, Sheep and Other Livestock May Not Produce
Methane Equally: Source of Greenhouse Gases, July 18, 2014
http://www.scienceworldreport.com/articles/15501/20140618/sheep-livestock-produce-methane-equallysource-greenhouse-gases.htm] Catherine Griffin is a writer for Science World Report and does topic
research on many other items for the site, the article itself has internal cites from the Journal Genome
Research
Livestock may be having a major impact on our climate. It turns out that a whopping total of onefifth of methane emissions can be attributed to livestock such as cattle, sheep and other ruminants .
As greenhouse gases continue to increase, farmers may want to think which livestock they raise in the
future. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), levels of carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide are increasing at a rapid rate. In fact, the atmospheric concentration of
methane, which is about 28 times more potent than carbon dioxide, has been increasing since the
18th century and has now increased by 50 percent compared to pre-industrial levels. That's why
researchers wanted to take a closer look at what animals produce more methane in an effort to potentially
curtail emissions. "We wanted to understand why some sheep produce a lot and some produce little
methane," said Eddy Rubin, one of the researchers, in a news release. "The study shows that it is
purely the microbiota responsible for the difference." In order to figure out why the amount of
methane that ruminants produce varies, the researchers measured methane yields from a cohort of 22
sheep. From this group, they selected four sheep with the lowest methane emissions, four with the
highest and two with intermediate emission levels. The scientists then collected rumen metagenome
DNA samples in order to learn a bit more about them. So what did they find? The scientists found a
methane-producing pathway and three variants of a gene encoding an important methane-forming
reaction that were involved in elevated methane yields. In fact, the expression levels of genes involved
in methane produced varied substantially across sheep, which suggested differential gene regulation
might be the cause of methane production. "It's not so much the actual composition of the microbiome
that determines emissions-which conventional wisdom would suggest-but mostly transcriptional
regulation within the existing microbes that makes the difference, which is a concept that is relatively new
in metagenomic studies," said Rubin in a news release. The findings could mean that it might be
possible to incorporate low-emission livestock into herds and thus help lower greenhouse gas
emissions in our atmosphere.
Peak Oil Advantage
2AC—Peak Oil Now
Peak oil is real—Data from US Energy Information Administration proves
Wilhelm 6/23—PhD in Economics from University of Michigan. [“It would seem premature to declare
that Peak Oil is dead,” Dr John Howard Wilhelm, Financial Times, 23 June 2014] // AG
Sir, Your assertion that Peak Oil is dead and that US output of liquid petroleum has regained its previous
peak reached in 1970 should not go unchallenged (“Looking past the death of Peak Oil”, Editorial, June
17). According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, US field production of
crude oil in 1970 was 9.6m barrels a day. For 2013 it was 7.4m b/d. That is, in 2013 US crude oil
production stood at 77 per cent of its annual 1970 peak.
If one looks at the facts, the situation is far more fraught than implied by your analysis later in the
piece. Earlier data from the Bakken oilfield indicated that annual production per well averaged
85,000 barrels a year initially with a decline rate of 40 per cent a year, which implies on a
compounded basis 856 barrels a year or 2.35 b/d in 10 years, surely a level at which a stripper well
would be shut down.
Later data I was sent by a prominent geologist indicate an initial annual rate per well of 133,955 in
the Bakken with an annual decline rate of 63 per cent, which implies that in seven years the daily
production rate of the average well could well be even lower than the 2.35 b/d.
From everything I know, this situation broadly applies to all US and world shale oil and gas
developments. Given this and given the reality cited in your piece that “it is a striking fact that since
2005, all the increase in the world’s crude oil production has come from the US”, it would seem
premature to regulate the Peakists’ argument to the “dustbin of history”.
2AC—Mapping K2 Energy
BSR fails, we need new mapping of MHs—solves biggest challenge to hydrate
development
Ruppel 11—Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.
[“Methane Hydrates and the Future of Natural Gas,” Carolyn Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,
Supplementary Paper 4, accessed from Emory] // AG
Locating High-Saturation Gas Hydrates
One of the biggest challenges for development of gas hydrates as a resource is the difficulty of
finding the deposits. This challenge is exacerbated by the lack of exhaustive laboratory and field
data that can be used to calibrate geophysical parameters as a function of the saturation of gas
hydrates in porous sediments.
For many years, marine gas hydrates were believed to occur only where exploration seismic data
detect a so-called bottom simulating reflector (BSR; see Figure 1a), which marks the base of the gas
hydrate stability zone in some places. This reflector generally indicates that overlying sediments host
some gas hydrate, although often at a saturation of less than 10%. Gas hydrates have now been sampled
in many places lacking a BSR, rendering the presence of a BSR a sufficient, but not necessary, one
for gas hydrate occurrence. In permafrost areas, the difficulty of using reconnaissance seismic imaging
to locate gas hydrates is even more acute since BSRtype features have never been observed.
A step beyond direct detection of the base of the gas hydrate stability zone is inferring gas hydrate
distributions and concentrations based on analysis of seismic data. Occasionally, it is possible to detect
gas hydrates directly based on velocity anomalies in sediments containing high hydrate saturations (e.g.,
Holbrook et al., 2002). More often, sophisticated analyses are required. On the Japanese margin, the
Indian margin, and the Alaskan North Slope, attribute analysis of 3D seismic data, coupled with
information from borehole logs, has been used to delineate the extent of hydrate deposits (Hato et
al., 2006; Satyavani et al., 2008; Inks et al., 2009; M. Lee et al., 2009). A full waveform inversion method
that can be readily applied to industry-quality marine seismic data, calibrated with available borehole
logs, and interpreted in terms of gas hydrate saturation by the application of rock physics models has been
used to predict the occurrence and saturation of hydrate in disparate geologic settings in the northern Gulf
of Mexico (Dai et al., 2008a, 2008b; Shelander et al., 2010).
Mapping hydrate deposits key to energy use and avoiding geohazards
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 34-36,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
7.5 Recommendations
The methane research community drove the development of the Marine Methane Hydrate Field Research
Science Plan. The COL‐supported Methane Hydrate Project Science Team and the Methane Hydrate
Community Workshop contributed greatly to defining the specific scientific and technical challenges
that must be addressed to advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature and their
potential role as an energy resource, a geohazard, and as an agent of global climate change. The
following are both general and specific project planning recommendations from the Science Plan
concerning the most important methane hydrate research challenges and opportunities, with a focus on
how scientific drilling can advance our understanding of the geologic controls on the formation,
occurrence, and stability of gas hydrates in nature.
Drilling Programs
The top priorities for dedicated scientific drilling are: (1) an expedition designed to further our
understanding of the highly concentrated sand‐rich methane hydrate reservoirs in the Gulf of
Mexico and (2) a drilling program designed to characterize the methane hydrate systems along the
Atlantic margin of the United States. The main goal of the proposed Gulf of Mexico expedition would
be coring (mostly pressure coring) and formation testing of the hydrate‐bearing sand reservoirs
discovered during JIP Leg II at the GC955 and WR313 sites. Scientific drilling along the U.S. Atlantic
margin primarily would collect fully integrated and comprehensive cores, downhole logs, and seismic
data needed to assess the geologic controls on the occurrence of gas hydrate. It is also critical that the pre‐
drill site review and planning effort are rigorous and make use of all of the available data from the area of
interest and from other successful site review efforts.
Wells of Opportunity
Establish a high‐level international committee to monitor and identify cooperative research and specific
scientific drilling opportunities to advance our understanding of methane hydrates in nature. This
committee would work with organizations such as the International Ocean Discovery Program,
national‐led methane hydrate research and development programs, oil and gas companies involved
in deepwater exploration and development, and governmental regulatory agencies to develop cooperative
data collection efforts. It is also important for the committee leading this effort to have the technical
capability and financial support required to develop and support the methane hydrate research component
of these cooperative opportunities.
Required Drilling and Measurement Technology Developments
Review and update technology and operational requirements for each drilling expedition. As methane
hydrate research and development activities move into deeper waters and more complex geologic settings,
new and emerging technologies and operational procedures need to be incorporated. For example, the
continuous use of drilling muds below certain critical depths during the GOM JIP Leg II permitted the
safe and efficient drilling of what was at that time abnormally deep holes. Concepts like the use of
riser systems or special mud recovery systems also need to be considered.
Include wireline logging and logging while drilling in all future methane hydrate expeditions.
Additional research is needed on the acquisition and use of the logging while drilling acoustic log
data, with a particular focus on obtaining high‐quality shear wave velocity data. Nuclear magnetic
resonance logging and wireline formation testing have made important contributions to our understanding
of methane hydrate reservoir properties in Arctic permafrost environments; however, the use of these
tools in marine environments have been limited because they cannot be deployed through drill pipe
commonly used in riserless scientific drilling. Procedures that would allow the use of the more complex
downhole logging systems need to be developed.
Further develop geotechnical tools, such as cone penetrometers and thermal conductivity probes,
along with downhole scientific tools such as formation temperature probes, pressure measurement
systems, and pore water samplers, and apply them to methane hydrate related research issues.
Other downhole measurement tools, most often used for industrial site surveys in support facilities and
foundation designs, could contribute directly to the analysis and quantification of methane hydrate related
geohazards.
Develop and deploy sensors and devices specifically designed to monitor methane systems. Another
area where downhole measurements require greater consideration is the use of borehole
instrumentation and observatories. We have seen only a limited number of borehole monitoring
systems designed to provide some information on dynamic processes associate with the occurrence of
methane hydrate.
Continue to test and develop the Hybrid‐PCS, and strongly encourage its use in the field. Specifically
developed pressure coring and associated laboratory equipment have contributed greatly to our
understanding of methane hydrate occurrence and physical properties of hydrates. The Hybrid‐PCS
has recently shown a great deal of promise. When possible, the Hybrid‐PCS should be made available to
both domestic and international methane hydrate research expeditions. It is also important to see the
continued develop of the laboratory systems required to analyze recovered pressure cores. The use of
systems such as the HYACINTH Pressure Core Analysis and Transfer System (PCATS) and Georgia
Institute of Technology Pressure Core Characterization Tool (PCCT) are essential to the success of any
future pressure coring program.
3-D mapping of MH key
Boswell 07—PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [“Resource potential of methane
hydrate coming into focus,” Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, Volume 56, 2007, pp 11] //
AG
4. Hydrate exploration: beyond BSRs
For much of the history of hydrate R&D, the primary tool for assessing the occurrence of hydrates
in marine environments was the presence of bottom-simulating reflectors ( BSRs ; attributed to a
phase transition from hydrate to free gas and water with depth) and other anomalous features (such as
amplitude “blanking”) on 2D seismic reflection profiles. Today, it is widely accepted that the presence
or absence of a BSR provides little valuable information on the distribution of meaningful
concentrations of hydrate. Therefore, geophysicists are turning their attention to the use of
advanced seismic techniques as a means to directly detect hydrate within the strata between the
BSR and the seafloor. Advanced processing techniques with industry standard 3D data sets, as well
as multi-component ocean-bottom seismic data where available, are showing great promise at
detecting the subtle mechanical property changes in sediments with sufficient hydrate
concentration (Bünz et al., 2005). For example, researchers working in association with the DOE, the
USGS, and BP Exploration, Alaska, have applied 3D-seismic, conventional well log data, and advanced
numerical simulation to identify more than a dozen unique, delineated, and potentiallydrillable hydrate
prospects within the area of the Milne Point Unit on the Alaskan North Slope (Inks et al., 2004).
Therefore, for the first time, hydrate researchers could talk of hydrates “prospects” and
“recoverables”— terms previously restricted to more established gas resource elements.
Current proposed methods of methane drilling are too unpredictable-more research
is needed before attempting to access
Embleton 8 [Richard Embleton, “Methane Hydrates: What are they thinking?,” Energy Bulletin, Dec
17 2008, pg. http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2008-12-17/methane-hydrates-what-are-they-thinking
The world's governments are beginning to come to grips with the reality that crude
oil is a finite resource. That forces them to face
amount of that resource available for running global human society is about to go
into terminal decline. We are at or soon to arrive at peak oil. Many analysts believe, based on the data, that we hit that peak in the spring
another reality. The
of 2005. Other more optimistic analysts believe that peak may still be as much as thirty years in the future. Even that (I am not conceding that
projection. I am in the spring 2005 camp.) is close enough that the majority of people alive today will have to begin to adjust to declining global
oil production in their lifetime. Optimists point to the fact that we have moved beyond various energy sources, on which the entire society
depends, many times in the past. We have always found a new, better energy source to replace them. Even since the beginning of the industrial
revolution we have moved through water power, steam power, coal, natural gas, electricity, oil and nuclear. Oil, however, has been the most
important and workable energy source that we have ever discovered and exploited. Where
do we go from oil? What will be the next,
are many who see electricity playing an increasingly
important role, including driving transportation. To many that electric future will be increasingly
centered on a nuclear energy renaissance. On the fringes they see electricity generation from wind,
solar, geothermal, tidal, hydro, wave and a variety of other options. But oil is used for much more
than powering the family car. I have trouble visualizing electric planes and electric ships. Hell, most
electric cars have a battery range of under 100 kilometers. And I don't think you can make plastics
from electricity. Last I noticed it required hydrocarbons. In one form or another, in fact,
hydrocarbons have been the world's primary energy source since the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution over 200 years ago. It answers one extremely important need; portability. Hydrocarbon
fuels, especially oil and its derivatives, can be easily move from one place to another. They can also
be used on board to generate the power used to move it. What is the next energy source that will give us
what oil, coal and natural gas give us today? You may be surprised to hear that it may be the other hydrocarbon
fuel. A Great many scientists, industry leaders and governments throughout the developed world
believe that will be methane. More specifically they believe it will be methane hydrates. Methane hydrates
better energy source that can power human society. There
(also called clathrates) are bubbles of methane gas trapped in a cage of ice crystals. Methane hydrate deposits occur in locations all over the
world. The most concentrated deposits occur under the Arctic Ocean, under the ocean floor on most continental shelves, in locations like the Gulf
of Mexico, the Bermuda Triangle, the Dragon's Triangle south of Japan, and in permafrost surrounding the Arctic ocean. It is reliably estimated
that the amount of methane trapped as hydrates globally exceeds by many times the total combined oil, coal and natural gas reserves that have
ever existed on earth. A chunk of methane ice exposed to the air and ignited will burn until all of the methane in that ice has been consumed.
Methane hydrates, however, require specific conditions of temperature and pressure to keep them
contained within their ice cage. Reduce the pressure - for example, by reducing the sea level and the
pressure of water above the deposit - or increased the temperature and the methane hydrate
deposit becomes unstable and begins to release the trapped methane into the atmosphere. That is a
problem. Methane is a greenhouse gas. In fact, it is 21-23 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide. When the methane trapped in the hydrate is released it expands by about 170 times.[1] Methane is lighter than
CO2, lighter than air. As a result it rises rapidly through the atmosphere up to the lower-density stratosphere. On the positive side methane
remains in the atmosphere for only about 10-20 years. CO2 remains in the atmosphere for over 100 years. Scientists studying global warming
have long been seriously concerned about the possibility of large scale methane hydrate destabilization and methane release into the atmosphere.
The greatest concern is about the large volumes of methane hydrates under the Arctic sea floor and that trapped in the vast permafrost zone
surrounding the Arctic Ocean. That concern has now been heightened by recent discoveries of hundreds of methane plumes on the floor of the
Arctic Ocean north of Norway and Siberia. [2] There is also evidence in pock-marked sea floors of large releases of methane plumes in the
geological past. [3] Paleoclimatologists now believe that large scale, natural methane hydrate releases have been partly but significantly
responsible for short-cycle global warming and global cooling cycles in the past. The recent discoveries in the Arctic, in fact, are thought to
suggest that methane releases have contributed to the global warming that has occurred since the last ice age 15,000 years ago. [2] The problem is
that these methane releases have a strong positive feedback loop. As they increase the warming of the atmosphere that warming in turn increases
methane release which in turn increases warming which in turn releases more...... You get the picture. Acceleration of global warming through
this positive feedback loop, by increased methane concentration in the atmosphere, far more than CO2 concentrations, represents, to
paleoclimatologists, a far greater risk of pushing us into the Venus effect, runaway global warming. When it comes to satisfying the world's
energy lust, however, caution may be thrown to the wind. Powering down human society is never an option put on the table when politicians and
other leaders discuss energy policies and strategies. We have proven over and over again that business as usual is the only model that will be
considered. How else can we explain the tar sands, oil shale development, deepwater oil extraction, coal mines extending out under the sea floor,
and more?
There are various technologies under consideration for extracting methane from hydrate
deposits. Most involve some form of heating the hydrate deposits - one, probably the dumbest and
most dangerous, even goes so far as to suggest using nuclear explosions beneath the deposit to heat
it, also suggested by some as a means of releasing oil from tar sands and oil shale - causing them to
release the methane which is then collected and piped to a processing facility of holding tank.
Proponents of methane hydrate exploitation, conscious of environmental concerns, are quick to offer reassurances like ".....tapping into the gas
hydrates assessed in the study is not expected to affect global warming, said Brenda Pierce, coordinator for the USGS Energy Resources
Program." [4] The louder and more frequent such reassurances are, of course, the more it suggests they are trying to cover up the probability that
the result will be the opposite. There
are many projects underway, funded by governments throughout the
world (Japan, India, China, South Korea, Russia, Norway, Canada, the U.S.), aimed at developing commercially viable
technologies for exploiting the planet's vast methane hydrate deposits. The selection of sites for
these projects are, themselves, a clear indication of one of the primary roadblocks to using methane
hydrates as a societal-supporting energy source. They have sought out test sites with high methane
hydrate concentrations. Most hydrate deposits are too small or too dispersed to be commercially
exploited. Also, unlike oil and natural gas, those deposits are generally not capped in such a way that the
geology can be used to contain releases. Most of those deposits on the sea floor, in fact, exist in unconsolidated, sandy or silt
sediment. The geology surrounding them is inherently unstable, difficult to contain . Once the deposit, or any large portion of
it, is destabilized it is very difficult to prevent unintended, uncontrolled methane releases into the
atmosphere. Okay. I very begrudgingly accept that our leaders are not going to consider powering down as a potential tactic in the face of
our impending energy crisis. Sooner or later the human race is going to have to accept that reality but clearly society is not prepared to accept it
now. But methane
hydrates are not like the other fossil fuels. And our approach to exploiting them is
going to have to be very different. The risk to the climate and the environment is so much greater than has ever been the case with
other fossil fuels. Most importantly, methane hydrates are globally affected by exactly the same constrains; temperature and pressure. Global
warming itself - it doesn't matter whether it is naturally occurring or caused by human combustion of fossil fuels - is the greatest threat of tipping
methane releases into a runaway warming mechanism. Scientists do not know with any certainty yet how much of a global temperature rise is
necessary to reach the tipping point where methane hydrate release into the atmosphere accelerates out of control. They do know that once that
happens the acceleration will be self-sustaining and self-accelerating. If
our leaders take the same cavalier approach with
scientific warnings about runaway methane release that they have taken with warnings about CO2
buildup in the atmosphere, and the long-term, safe storage of spent nuclear fuel, we are headed
toward a much more serious atmospheric and climatic disaster than global warming experts have
thus far suggested. Methane releases from the ocean floors and from Arctic permafrost have not been built into any of the current global
warming models as a factor, including those models supporting the IPCC reports. Considering that methane hydrate deposits exceed the total of
all other fossil fuels by magnitudes and that methane
is more than 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas
than CO2, that should be extremely worrying to anyone who accepts the validity of the global
warming theory.
---Mapping K2 Energy
Locating MHs key to determining what to do about them
Maslin et al 10—Department of Geography at the University of Bristol. [“Review Gas hydrates: past
and future geohazard?” Mark Maslin, Matthew Owen, Richard Betts, Simon Day, Tom Dunkley Jones,
and Andrew Ridgwell, Philosophical Transaction Royal Society, Volume 368, 2010, pp 2387-2388, DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2010.0065, accessed from Emory] // AG
9. Conclusions
At the moment, it is difficult to assess the potential future geohazard represented by gas hydrates
owing to a lack of knowledge. For example, we are unsure how much methane is stored in and below
gas hydrates. For ocean sediments, estimates range from 500 to lOOOOGtC (best estimate 1600-2000
GtC) stored, while our current estimates of gas hydrate storage in the Arctic region are very poor
(approx. 400 GtC) and non-existent for Antarctica. We do not know whether increased future
temperatures could lead to significant methane release from ocean sediments, as thermal penetration
of marine sediments to the clathrate-gas interface could be slow enough to allow a new equilibrium to
occur without any gas escaping. Even if methane gas does escape, it is still unclear how much of this
could be oxidized in the overlying ocean. Our best estimate by Archer et al (2009), using state-of-the-art
modelling, has a huge potential range from 35 to 940 GtC. The destabilized gas hydrate reserves in
permafrost areas seem more certain as climate models predict that high-latitude regions will be
disproportionately affected by global warming with temperature increases of up to 12?C predicted for
much of North America and Northern Asia. There is already new evidence of significant methane release
from subsea permafrost on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Shakhova et al. 2010). But our current
estimates of gas hydrate storage in the Arctic region are very poor and non-existent for Antarctica.
Hence, more research is required to (i) quantify the amount of methane stored in and below gas
hydrate deposits and (ii) increase our understanding of the possible limits of stability of these
deposits, before we can successfully evaluate the future risk they pose to both the local and global
environment.
Current MH assessments create uncertainty—mapping key
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 15,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Methane hydrate resource assessments that indicate enormous global volumes of methane present
within hydrate accumulations have been one of the primary driving forces behind the growing
interest in methane hydrates (as reviewed by Boswell and Collett, 2011). For the most part, these estimates range
over several orders of magnitude, creating great uncertainty in the role methane hydrates may
play as an energy resource or as a factor in global climate change. In recent years, field production tests combined with advanced
numerical simulation have shown that hydrates in sand reservoirs are the most feasible initial targets for energy recovery, thus bringing focus to
the type of future hydrate assessments to be conducted. It has also been shown that with regard to the climate implications of methane hydrates,
there is growing need to accurately assess what portion of the global methane hydrate endowment
is most prone to disturbance under future warming scenarios.
Mapping MHs key to safe ocean development
Hovland & Gudmestad 01—Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of
Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [“Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabead
installations,” Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 312-313] // AG
6. CONCLUSIONS
In spite of many years of research, observation, and drilling in deep ocean sediments, the true dynamic
nature of in-situ gas hydrate formation and dissociation is still being discovered. Even though
scientific research in areas with abundant natural gas hydrates, such as Hydrate Ridge on the Cascadia
accretionary wedge, off Oregon (Torres et al, 1999; Zhou et al., 1999) and parts of the Gulf of Mexico
(MacDonald et al., 1994) is currently on the increase, there are still numerous unknown aspects of gas
hydrates in marine sediments. The delicate thermodynamic balance and nature of gas hydrates in
natural environments, calls for all means of caution.
For any potential deep-water interaction site, the need for mapping , inspection, geochemical,
geotechnical and biological sampling and theoretical assessment is even greater than for shallow
water sites. Because the hydrates may develop and dissociate slowly over time, long term
monitoring of any engineering structures in relevant areas is also called for.
MH reservoir modeling key to developing energy and preventing release
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 36,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Data and Science Integration
Support efforts to coordinate the use and integration of field, laboratory, and model derived data.
The integration of field, laboratory, and modeling studies is essential to furthering our
understanding of the geologic factors controlling methane hydrate systems in nature. For example,
methane hydrate reservoir modeling can aid in predicting gas flow rates and the response of the
hydrate‐bearing sediments to production, as well as in interpreting impact of natural perturbations
on methane hydrate systems dynamics. These numerical models also make use of complex coupled
equations that account for heat transfer, fluid flow, and kinetic mechanisms that govern the in situ
response of hydrate to internal forcing. In most cases, the equations and various physical properties of the
methane hydrate system being modeled have been derived through laboratory analyses of natural and
synthetic hydrate samples. The ongoing cooperative work in the methane hydrate community that has
shown the method of hydrate formation (e.g., out of solution, from free gas phase, ice seeding) will have a
significant effect on the resulting physical properties is an important contribution. This effort is also a
good example of a grass‐root effort being led by key methane hydrate research laboratories throughout
the world, and is the type of effort that needs to be supported and duplicated to deal with other
fundamental methane hydrate research problems.
Information and Technology Transfer
Make use of all available communication channels to disseminate well‐vetted data and information
on the role that methane hydrates may play as an energy resource, geohazard, or agent of global
climate change. To effectively deal with the outstanding methane hydrate science and technical
challenges, the public must be accurately and honestly informed of the potential benefits and
impacts associated methane hydrate research. There is a need to standardize the use of common
hydrate related research terms and concepts. It is also important to identify the issues and factors that
influence the perception of methane hydrate research into the future.
Monitor the methane hydrate scientific community and deal effectively with misinformation
through the peer review process and the judicious use of published reviews and rebuttals.
2AC—MH = Safe Energy Source
Methane hydrate is one of the largest potential energy sources in the world and can
be drilled and burned safely
ORNL Review 2k [Oak Ridge National Laboratory Review, “Methane Hydrates: A Carbon
Management Challenge,” Issue 22 Number 2, 2000, pg.
http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/v33_2_00/methane.htm]
An enormous natural gas resource locked in ice lies untapped in ocean sediments and the Arctic
permafrost. If this resource could be harvested safely and economically by the United States, we
could possibly enjoy long-term energy security. Known as methane hydrates, this resource also may have important implications for climate change.
When released to the air, methane is a greenhouse gas that traps 20 times more heat than carbon
dioxide (another greenhouse gas). When burned, methane releases up to 25% less carbon dioxide than the
combustion of the same mass of coal and does not emit the nitrogen and sulfur oxides known to
damage the environment. Methane hydrates contain methane in a highly concentrated form. Hydrates are a type of ice in which water molecules form cages (clathrates)
around properly sized guest molecules. Gas hydrates form when water and gas (e.g., methane, ethane, and propane) come together at the right temperatures and pressures. Thanks to the recent
passage of the authorization bill, The Methane Hydrate Research and Development Act of 1999, the Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy is planning a national research and
development (R&D) program on methane hydrates. ORNL researchers are doing research in this area using internal funding from the Laboratory Directed R&D (LDRD) Program and are
concerns about
climate change are being addressed, considering that methane is a greenhouse gas," says Lorie
Langley, leader of ORNL's Natural Gas Infrastructure, Methane Hydrates, and Carbon Dioxide
Sequestration programs. "Methane can be used as an inexpensive source of hydrogen, a carbonfree fuel that could help slow climate change, providing that methods are developed to sequester the
carbon dioxide that results from hydrogen production." Among the questions the DOE program will address are these: How much
natural gas actually is present in the world's methane hydrates? (Estimates range as high as
700,000 trillion cubic feet, many times the estimated total of worldwide conventional resources of
natural gas and oil.) Are the hydrates stable enough to sequester carbon dioxide injected into them? Which production methods could safely harvest methane from the
proposing projects for DOE funding. "The driver of DOE's gas hydrates program is the need for a new, abundant source of relatively clean energy, yet
hydrates? What are the risks of recovering methane from ocean hydrates? Could the release of methane make the sediments unstable enough to cause the collapse of seafloor foundations for
conventional oil and gas drilling rigs? Could the melting, or dissociation, of methane hydrate ice lead to releases of large volumes of methane to the atmosphere, raising greenhouse gas levels and
? To help answer questions about the formation and dissociation of methane
hydrates in ocean sediments, ORNL is operating a new seafloor process simulator (SPS), which is
the largest, most highly instrumented pressure vessel in the world for methane hydrate studies.
This 72-liter vessel, which is more than 30 times larger than the typical vessel used for methane
hydrate research, is the product of an LDRD project led by Gary Jacobs and Tommy Phelps, both
of ORNL's Environmental Sciences Division (ESD). In the SPS, methane is bubbled into the seawater-containing vessel. The fluid is cooled to
exacerbating global warming
~4°C and pressurized between 50 and 100 atmospheres to form methane hydrates. Methane hydrate samples are produced for analysis by instruments at numerous ports around the vessel, and
their formation is captured by a video camera. "Because of the size of our vessel, we have found a way to make methane hydrates easily and predictably," Phelps says. "Our large pressure vessel
is also more suitable for research on the interactions between heterogeneous sediments and hydrates during their formation and dissociation. We can mimic actual heterogeneous conditions such
as ocean water and sediments mixed with microorganisms, organic matter, carbonate particles, sand, silt, clay, and sulfides. Our data will be used to test and verify computer models of
heterogeneous hydrate formation." The dissociation of methane hydrates is a major concern for oil companies, Phelps says, noting that five oil firms have expressed interest in conducting
research at SPS. "When the temperature rises or the pressure drops, one cubic foot of methane hydrate ice can release 160 cubic feet of gas," he explains. "Forces from methane hydrate
dissociation have been blamed for a damaging shift in a drilling rig's foundation, causing a loss of $100 million. Oil and gas drilling companies are more interested in protecting their drilling
equipment than harvesting the hydrates as an energy resource, at least for the next 10 years." At the SPS, hydrates could be grown in intact sediment cores filled with particles of controlled size to
determine the effects of decomposing hydrates on sediment structure. Experiments at the SPS might also help determine which conditions could lead to a "burp" of methane from ocean hydrates
that might enter the atmosphere and cause climate change. Some evidence suggests that a catastrophic release of frozen methane from the ocean 55 million years ago was responsible for an
abrupt warming of the earth. As a result, ocean temperatures rose by 7 to 14 degrees over 1000 years, causing the die-off of more than half of some deep-sea species. "Eventually, we could do
dynamic production simulations at the SPS," Phelps says. "We may test ideas for harvesting methane hydrates, such as depressurization, stimulating them with sound waves to melt them gently,
or injecting solvents to extract the methane into gas recovery wells." What other research is being done at ORNL on methane hydrates? In 1999, Bill Doll, an ESD geophysicist, in collaboration
with scientists from Kansas and Canada, used high-resolution seismic reflection methods developed for solving environmental problems to obtain very sharp images of hydrate-bearing zones
1000 m deep and of an overlying permafrost zone. The work was conducted in Canada's MacKenzie Delta, along the Arctic Ocean.
"We are developing tools to precisely locate methane hydrate layers, assess whether the hydrate is
distributed uniformly or in pockets within the sediments, and ultimately determine how much
methane is there," Doll says. "Our high-resolution measurements have impressed oil exploration companies." In a
collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), David Reister and N. S. V. Rao, both of
ORNL's Computer Science and Mathematics Division, have been developing an improved method
to determine how much methane is present in gas hydrates on the ocean floor. "Hydrates occupy pores of
rocks," Reister says. "To determine how much methane is present in the ocean, we must accurately estimate porosity and hydrate concentration in
the pores for all ocean sediments." They are developing mathematical models based on rock physics to predict the locations and concentrations of
methane hydrates in oceans and Arctic permafrost in the MacKenzie Delta. They use well log data obtained by oil and gas drilling companies,
which provide a variety of measurements, including density, velocity, and electrical resistivity of sediments and the contents of their pores. Peter
T. Cummings, an ORNL-University of Tennessee (UT) Distinguished Scientist, Ariel A. Chialvo, an ORNL-UT collaborating scientist, and
Mohammed Houssa of UT are using sophisticated models of methane, carbon dioxide, and water to better understand methane hydrates. "We are
doing molecular simulations of methane hydrates at different temperatures, such as 270 K and 170 K," says Cummings. "Methane doesn't like
water, so it pushes the surrounding water molecules away in clathrates, forcing them into a structure that is more stable than the normal
arrangement of water molecules." The scientists' goal is to predict the stability of methane hydrates in the real environment. Methane hydrates are
trapped in pores of sandstone sediments that are contaminated with bacteria, algae, sand, and ions from saltwater. "We will eventually simulate
the effects of impurities on the stability of methane hydrates," Cummings says. "Our models may show that confinement in pores enhances
methane hydrate stability." Claudia Rawn of the Metals and Ceramics Division, Bryan Chakoumakos of the Solid State Division, and Simon
Marshall of ESD are interested in using neutrons to measure the effects of temperature and pressure changes on methane hydrate stability. "We
measured the expansion of a unit cell of a USGS methane hydrate sample as temperature rises," Rawn says. They hope to determine the effects of
different gases on hydrate stability and compare the movements of water molecules and the strengths of hydrogen bonds in hydrates and normal
ice. The
DOE National Methane Hydrate Program Plan has four research goals: resource
characterization, production technology, global climate change, and safety and seafloor stability.
"ORNL has the opportunity and capability to contribute to all of these goals," says Langley.
Methane has large potential as a fuel source – deposits are enormous
Anderson 14 [Richard – BBCnews, April 14th, 2014, “Methane hydrate: Dirty fuel or energy
saviour?”, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610 \\accessed 6/15/14\\NL]
The world is addicted to hydrocarbons, and it's easy to see why - cheap, plentiful and easy to mine, they
represent an abundant energy source to fuel industrial development the world over.
The side-effects, however, are potentially devastating; burning fossil fuels emits the CO2 linked to
global warming. And as reserves of oil, coal and gas are becoming tougher to access, governments are
looking ever harder for alternatives, not just to produce energy, but to help achieve the holy grail of all
sovereign states - energy independence. Some have discovered a potential saviour, locked away under
deep ocean beds and vast swathes of permafrost. The problem is it's a hydrocarbon, but unlike any
other we know. Huge reserves Otherwise known as fire ice, methane hydrate presents as ice
crystals with natural methane gas locked inside. They are formed through a combination of low
temperatures and high pressure , and are found primarily on the edge of continental shelves
where the seabed drops sharply away into the deep ocean floor , as the US Geological Survey map
shows. And the deposits of these compounds are enormous. "Estimates suggest that there is about the
same amount of carbon in methane hydrates as there is in every other organic carbon store on the
planet," says Chris Rochelle of the British Geological Survey. In other words, there is more energy in
methane hydrates than in all the world's oil, coal and gas put together. By lowering the pressure or
raising the temperature, the hydrate simply breaks down into water and methane - a lot of
methane. One cubic metre of the compound releases about 160 cubic metres of gas, making it a
highly energy-intensive fuel. This, together with abundant reserves and the relatively simple process of
releasing the methane, means a number of governments are getting increasingly excited about this
massive potential source of energy.
2AC—MH Energy
MH development creates new energy potential
Seol & Boswell 10—Scientist for the Department of Energy // PhD in Geology from West Virginia
University and Technology Manger for Methane Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory
for the DOE. [“Methane Hydrate, ‘Fire in the Ice’: Energy Potential and Environmental Implications,”
Yongkoo Seol and Ray Boswell, 23 July 2010, http://www.laboratoryjournal.com/science/umwelt/methane-hydrate-fire-ice?page=1] // AG
Conclusion
The primary challenges of developing gas hydrate reservoirs include creating reliable and effective
exploration and production technologies, assessing economically recoverable resources, and
understanding the role of gas hydrate in global climate change. Collaborative efforts to overcome
these technical challenges should be continued to determine methane hydrate's potential as an
environmentally safe and economically viable energy source.
Hydrates are a better energy source
NRC 10 National Research Council. [Realizing the Energy Potential of Methane Hydrate for the United
States. ] Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2010.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12831
Ensuring reliable sources of natural gas is of significant strategic interest to the United States.
Natural gas is the cleanest of all the fossil fuels, emitting from 25 to 50 percent less carbon dioxide
than either oil or coal for each unit of energy produced.1 In recent years, natural gas has supplied approximately 20-25
percent of all energy consumed in the United States. In 2008, for example, a total of about 23 trillion cubic feet (TCF) 2 of natural
gas was used to supply heat and electrical power to various sectors of the economy, with domestic natural gas providing
approximately 85 percent of this volume (EIA, 2009a,b). The relatively clean environmental footprint for
combustion, the potential for securing significant domestic supplies, and the compatibility with
existing infrastructure indicate that natural gas can be a cornerstone of an environmentally and economically sound
domestic energy portfolio.
Accumulations of methane hydrate, a solid form of natural gas, may represent an enormous
source of methane. Methane hydrate occurs in sediments within and below thick permafrost in
Arctic regions and in the subsurface of most continental margins where water depths are greater
than about 1,500 feet (about 500 meters) (Figure 1.1; Box 1.1). Although the estimated total global volume
of methane in methane hydrate is still debated, generally acknowledged estimates yield figures
between 2 and 10 times greater than those of technically recoverable conventional natural gas
resources (see Chapter 2). The existence of such a large and as-yet untapped methane hydrate resource
has provided a strong global research incentive to determine how methane from methane hydrate
might be produced as a technically safe, environmentally compatible, and economically competitive
energy resource (e.g., Council of Canadian Academies, 2008).
It’s cheap
Ruppel 11—Carolyn Ruppel 2011 [MITEI Natural Gas Report, Supplementary Paper on Methane
Hydrates] U.S. Geological Survey, Woods Hole, MA
https://mitei.mit.edu/system/files/Supplementary_Paper_SP_2_4_Hydrates.pdf
Without data from a long-term production test like the one that DOE plans to undertake with private sector partners within the next few years, the
economics of gas production from gas hydrate deposits has been difficult to analyze. Until recently, the studies by Howe (2004) and Hancock et
al. (2004) were among the few economic analyses to have been completed for gas hydrate production. A recent study by Walsh et al. (2009) now
stands as the most exhaustive analysis of the economics of gas production from gas hydrates and (in some cases) associated free gas to become
available in the public domain. Building on the earlier work by Hancock et al. (2004) and unpublished research by Hancock, the Walsh et al.
(2009) study uses CMG-STARS for reservoir simulation of permafrost-associated gas hydrate production and Que$tor for determining costs.
They report that the price of gas would have to reach $7.50 Canadian (2005 dollars) per Mcf for
production from permafrost-associated gas hydrates overlying producible free gas to be
economically viable. This estimate and others that follow include pipeline tariffs, but not local taxes and tariffs. If there is no underlying
free gas that can be produced during the life of the well, then the gas price would have to reach $12 Canadian (2005 dollars) per Mcf for
production from hydrates to become viable.
To assess the production characteristics and economics of marine gas hydrates, Walsh et al. (2009) used the TOUGH+HYDRATE reservoir
simulation (Moridis et al., 2008b) results published by Moridis and Reagan (2007) and Quester for
cost analyses in
comparing production from gas hydrates to that from a conventional gas reservoir. The costs
estimates include a pipeline, production facility, and subsea development for both conventional and
gas hydrate production and the extra costs (e.g., additional wells, artificial lift to manage water
production) associated with gas production from hydrate. At the 50% confidence level, the additional cost
associated with production from deepwater gas hydrates vs. conventional gas deposits is $3.50 to
$4.00 (U.S. dollars) per Mcf.
2AC—Credit Crunch
Oil is the bottleneck – Supply shortage will trigger a massive credit crunch
Tverberg 12 – Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society & Member of the American Academy of Actuaries [Gail E. Tverberg (MS in
Mathematics from the University of Illinois) , “Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis,” Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012,
pg. 27-34
Furthermore, we consider the possibility that if world oil
supply fails to increase, the growth of the emerging economies
will create a shortage of oil that will act as a bottleneck for Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) economic growth in the next several years. This hypothesis seems reasonable since Smil shows
that moving away from a fossil fuel civilization in less than 20 or 30 years is very unlikely, because of
the very long time required for transition from one type of fuel infrastructure to another [1].
Biophysical constraints arising from the loss of fossil fuel energy could also be expected to negatively affect the economic process over the longterm [2]. Given our built infrastructure, oil is one input that is currently needed
for economic growth. While there are
other requirements, such as appropriate social institutions, technology, and ingenuity that are necessary for growth, lack of oil
would seem to act as a bottleneck, even if other necessary factors are present.
While substantial work has been done outlining the connection of energy supply or oil supply with the economy, little work has been done laying
out how, in practice, a reduction in oil supply might affect the credit system and the economic leverage it provides. It is the purpose of this paper
to make a first step toward setting forth some of these connections. When this is done, there are striking similarities between the attributes of the
2008-2009 recession and the expected impacts of reduced oil supply on economies.
increasing oil supply tends to give rise to economic growth and to conditions that foster the
expansion of credit. Economic growth tends to be associated with many other favorable outcomes, including
rising home prices, rising stock market prices, and adequate supply of capital. These outcomes play a
crucial role in enhancing the positive effects that credit has on the functioning of modern
economies. Decreasing oil supply tends to have an opposite effect, leading to economic stagnation or decline
and credit restriction, and unfavorable follow-on outcomes, including falling home prices, declining stock market
prices, and inadequate supply of capital.
We show that
Because declining oil supply tends to be associated with credit restrictions
and economic stagnation or decline,
the common belief that oil prices will rise to a very high level in the face of inadequate supply appears to be untrue. Instead, our
research
shows that the limiting factor with respect to oil supply is likely to be inadequate demand for high-priced oil. Oil prices are likely
to rise to a point where they cause recession and credit contraction, and then decline. After at time, they may rise
again with economic recovery, only to fall again when they reach the point when the high prices lead to recession. At times, there may
appear to be a glut of oil on the market. Oil prices may never reach a high enough level to stimulate
extraction from sources that require very expensive extraction techniques or to encourage widespread use of
renewable sources of energy. Pg. 27-28
Credit contraction risks global collapse – Oil competition makes the decline selfreinforcing
Tverberg 12 – Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society & Member of the American Academy of Actuaries [Gail E. Tverberg (MS in
Mathematics from the University of Illinois) , “Oil supply limits and the continuing financial crisis,” Energy, Volume 37, Issue 1, January 2012,
pg. 27-34
Scenario 3. There is a possibility that world oil production will remain flat, or decline. In this scenario,
indications are that the “All Other” countries will continue to outbid “OECD” for oil supplies, and OECD’s oil use will continue to decline.
debt defaults are likely outcomes. Lower credit availability and lower demand can be expected to
reduce demand for natural gas, coal, and alternative fuels, as it did during the 2008-2009 recession, making the
Recession and
impacts greater than the oil shortage by itself might suggest. This reduction in demand is expected to reflect a shortfall of demand for high priced
energy products (analogous to the lack of demand for high priced oil). Unless low-priced energy substitutes can be found, it is not clear that there
is a cure for this lack of demand.
8. Conclusion - While we cannot know what the future will bring, the evidence would seem to suggest that we are reaching limits on the amount
of oil that the world can extract at a price OECD countries can afford to pay without causing serious recession. While there is a theoretical
possibility that some
way can be found around this roadblock, perhaps through innovation that brings down the price of
oil extraction, or through the development of inexpensive alternative fuels, there appears to be a real possibility that
OECD’s oil consumption will continue to fall, and OECD countries will continue to experience recession and debt
contraction . One concern is that this could end very badly. Banks, insurance companies, and pension
plans are all operated with the expectation that most debt will be repaid according to schedule, with appropriate interest added. They will
encounter serious financial difficulties if they encounter a substantial number of defaults because their
equity will be quickly eroded . The government can use bailouts and stimulus funds to temporarily remedy the situation, but
eventually the widespread nature of the problem will become evident.
There are various types of insurance programs set up to handle bankruptcies of financial institutions, but they are not set up to handle a situation
where problems are widespread. The assumption that is always made in funding these programs that bankruptcy is a very rare independent event.
At some point, there would appear to be a possibility that the
financial system and the international trade system
would be at risk of disruption, because these both depend on debtors being able to fulfill the terms
of their loans.
Also, if
economic decline starts, there seems to be evidence that it is self-reinforcing if OECD countries must
compete with oil exporters and emerging economies for a virtually flat supply of oil, as in the recent past. Investment
capital is likely to be in very short supply, because debt for investment will not be very available, and businesses
may still need to pay back past loans in a declining economy. Lower energetic supplies will make it difficult to maintain all aspects of
infrastructure.
Both Tainter [35] and Meadows [36] have described adverse
scenarios, where all systems seemed to deteriorate at the
same time. While there is no certainty that we are approaching such an outcome, it would seem to be an outcome that we should be
considering. Some are hopeful that a steady state economy can be developed that can prevent collapse and allow
world population to live at a lower, but acceptable, level [37, 38]. Research is needed as to the feasibility of this alternative. How many people
can the world support with minimal use of fossil fuels? What type of lifestyle can be expected for these people? Without research in this area,
there is a possibility that advocates of
a collapse
scenario. Pg. 33-34
a steady state economy are proposing an alternative that does not differ materially from
2AC—Oil Wars
Oil determines the geostrategic context that the US military operates within
CNA Military Advisory Board 10 – Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering America’s Economy: Energy Innovation at the Crossroads of National Security Challenges,
July 2010]
• Geostrategic challenges: Reliance on foreign oil presents geostrategic challenges to the nation. Oil funds some
nations, notably Iran and Venezuela, whose objectives often run contrary to those of the United States. None of
this is new: guaranteeing access to petroleum has been at the top of the American foreign policy agenda
for decades. In 1980, for example, President Carter declared that American military forces would protect
the Persian Gulf “from outside attempts to gain control” [5]. American actions abroad are, by
necessity, conducted within this geostrategic context. Pg. 3
2AC—Price Volatility
Price volatility undermines the economy
CNA Military Advisory Board 09 – Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, May 2009]
The volatile fossil fuel markets have a major impact on our national economy, which in turn affects national
security. Upward spikes in energy prices—tied to the wild swings now common in the world’s fossil fuel markets—constrict
the economy in the short-term, and undermine strategic planning in the long-term. Volatility is not limited
to the oil market: the nation’s economy is also wrenched by the increasingly sharp swings in price of natural gas and coal. This volatility
wreaks havoc with government revenue projections, making the task of addressing strategic and
systemic national security problems much more challenging. It also makes it more difficult for
companies to commit to the long-term investments needed to develop and deploy new energy
technologies and upgrade major infrastructure. Pg. 10-11
Oil price volatility undermines the economy
CNA Military Advisory Board 10 – Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering America’s Economy: Energy Innovation at the Crossroads of National Security Challenges,
July 2010]
Economic impacts: As of this writing, the full economic impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster to states along the Gulf Coast are not yet
fully known, but they will no doubt be extraordinarily high and persist for many years. Further, oil
imports are a huge drain on
the nation’s economy. Despite the severe economic recession, the United States transferred an
estimated $386 billion overseas to purchase oil in 2008 and over $350 billion in 2009. Finally, and perhaps
most significant from an economic security perspective, the unpredictable volatility of oil prices sends ripple effects
through American businesses and government agencies stretching from the federal to local level.
Without stable and predictable energy prices, business leaders, farmers, and especially large
industries cannot effectively plan, hire, and remain competitive in a global market. The economic
costs of the nation’s energy choices affect jobs, American livelihoods, and the ability of the United
States to compete in the global marketplace. America’s global leadership, militarily and
diplomatically, is directly affected by its economic strength. Pg. 3
2AC—Oil Infrastructure K2 Econ
Small attacks on the oil infrastructure can create surges in prices
CNA Military Advisory Board 09 – Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, May 2009]
The effects of these attacks have been regional, and none resulted in a catastrophic disruption in the flow of oil. However, these attacks
have demonstrated the vulnerability of oil infrastructure to attack; a series of well-coordinated
attacks on oil production and distribution facilities could have serious negative consequences on the
global economy. Even these small-scale and mostly unsuccessful attacks have sent price surges
through the world oil market. Pg. 6
2AC—Oil Competition
Oil supply is constrained. Competition will intensify
CNA Military Advisory Board 09 – Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering America’s Defense: Energy and the Risks to National Security, May 2009]
The demand for oil is expected to increase even as the supply becomes constrained. A 2007 Government
Accountability Office (GAO) report on peak oil, which considered a wide range of studies on the topic, concluded that the
peak in production is likely to occur some time before 2040 [64]. While that 30-year timeframe may seem long to
some, it is familiar to military planners, who routinely consider the 30- to 40-year life span of major weapon systems. According to the
International Energy Agency (IEA), most countries outside of the Middle East have already reached, or will
soon reach, the peak of their oil production [65]. This includes the U.S., where oil production peaked in 1970.
Just how constrained will oil supplies be? A November 2008 article by Fatih Birol, the
IEA’s chief economist, outlined what it
will take just to make up for the declining production in today’s oil fields, which Birol describes as “just
standing still” [66]. Continuing to produce 85 million barrels of oil for the next 22 years will require 45
million barrels per day of new production. “That means four Saudi Arabias,” according to Birol. When an
increase in demand is factored in, he says meeting demand will require finding the equivalent of an
additional two more Saudi Arabias. This strain on production capacity suggests intense
competition. Pg. 18
2AC—Military Readiness
Raising oil prices decreases military readiness
CNA Military Advisory Board 10 – Retired generals and admirals from all four services [Center for Naval Analyses:
Analysis and Solutions (A not-for-profit company which provides indepth analysis and results-oriented solutions to help government leaders set
policy and manage military operations), Powering America’s Economy: Energy Innovation at the Crossroads of National Security Challenges,
July 2010]
• Cost: Like the rest of the country, heavy dependence on oil has significant economic repercussions in DOD.
Given the size of DOD and its rate of energy consumption, the effects are especially significant. In
2008, approximately $20 billion of DOD’s budget was spent on energy, of which $3.8 billion purchased electricity for
installations [7]. Over the past two decades, the Navy’s expenditure on energy has increased 500 percent [8]. When the price of fuel spikes (as it
will continue to do), it sends a readiness shock wave through DOD’s budget. Every
$10 increase in the price of a barrel of
oil costs the Department $1.3 billion. That money comes at a direct and serious cost to other
warfighting readiness priorities. Pg. 3
2AC—Collapse Impact
Collapse will trigger a 99.4% die-off
Weyler 12 – Founding member of Greenpeace [REX WEYLER, “Our Future Discussed,” Vancouver
Peak Oil, Tues. May 29, 2012, pg. http://vancouverpeakoil.org/2012/05/29/rex-weyler-our-futurediscussed/#more-2819
scenarios: There will indeed be a die-off during humanity’s resource downslope, but a die-off
from 7-billion to 40 million ( 99.4% die-off ) would not be a well-organized descent to utopia, it would be chaos, and the most
desperate would lay waste to social infrastructure before they’d let your children and their friends convert cars to electric
1. Collapse
trains or any such thing. It might work on paper to have 40-million people living your present lifestyle, if you could blow the excess people out
like candles, but in the real world, a social
collapse of that magnitude would be sloppy, violent, and dis-integrating. It
is more likely that the indigenous people in the Amazon and New Guinea would be the survivors, not
the sustainability consultants and permaculturists in BC or Washington State. Your scenario is not realistic.
2. Who are the labour force?: And once humanity reached 40-million, all living at your pleasant level of goods and services, with trains running
on time, who is keeping the hydroelectric projects running, and cleaning out the silted reservoirs? Who’s mining the copper and lithium and
mineral ores. Recycling? Who is doing that? Where is the energy coming from and the energy infrastructure to recycle copper and rare earth
metals out of old computers and cell phones? How are these materials getting shipped around to manufacturing centres? Who is doing the
manufacturing? Who is growing the food for the miners and recyclers and manufacturers?
It could not and would not happen like that. If 40 million humans were left, one-half of 1-percent of present population, they would likely be
living off the perennial output of whatever is left of nature’s bounty (not tearing up land each year to plant annual grains, for example).
You appear to me to be forgetting that all of the world’s affluent society living today as you describe (5-7 % of society) lives on the collective
energy and materials flow provided by plundering nature and exploiting the masses to do all the dirty work.
The last time there were 40 million people on Earth, about 4,000 years ago, civilizations had irrigation and
chariots, but achieved this with animal power and slaves , and by destroying forests to smelt copper. Many
cities collapsed between 5,000 BC and 1000 AD.
The inequity
and unsustainable lifestyles of the oligarchs brought these empires down. We possess no
technological miracles that can change this reality. All of our techie toys exist on top of a giant pyramid of
resource extraction, nature-destruction, and human exploitation.
2AC—Tech Solves
Political motivation for a shift to energy independence exists. US just needs the tech
Grunewald 09 - Argov Fellow @ IDC Herzliya [Adam Grunewald (Third year student, Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and
Strategy), “Dr. Gal Luft: Turning Oil into Salt,” IDC Herzliya, Nov 1, 2009, pg.
http://portal.idc.ac.il/He/Main/about_idc/news_events/DocLib2/71_gal_luft.pdf]
Dr. Luft began his speech with a story about a similar strategic good that dictated the policies of nations for centuries; salt. Before
the
invention of canning and refrigeration, salt was the only means of preserving food. People were often paid
in measures of salt, nations’ military expeditions were often dictated by salt, and in many countries people would live or
die during the winter based on whether or not they had a large enough supply. Although salt is still widely used today for flavoring and other
purposes,
the invention of modern technologies has stripped the resource of its strategic importance. Dr.
Luft’s belief is that when we invest our resources into finding alternative fuel sources, oil will also
lose its significance, and the oil rich Persian Gulf states will lose their leverage over the rest of the world.
This geo-political exploitation is the primary danger associated with the continued world dependence on the
members of OPEC (Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries). Two of the most significant members of this cartel are Iran and Saudi
Arabia, whose massive supply of petro-dollars allows them to sustain their efforts as the largest sponsors
of radical Islam. Most of these OPEC countries are extremely underdeveloped in non-oil industries and are therefore unconcerned with the
well-being of the world economy. Before the 1973 oil embargo, OPEC produced 30 million barrels of oil a day. Today, although the world
economy has more than doubled in size and the demand for oil has skyrocketed over the past 36 years, OPEC produces only 29 million barrels of
oil a day. This cynical strategy exemplifies the mindset of many of the cartel’s member states, which is to, “save it, and let the rest of the world
run out so that they can further their oil-based exploitation.”
The United States government, is the largest importer of oil, and is fully aware of the situation of
dependence that has developed between themselves and the Middle East. In fact, energy independence has become
one of the most politically bi-partisan and publicly supported issues in United States history.
Unfortunately, there is a widespread ignorance of how to achieve oil independence, even in the
highest levels of government. During the U.S. presidential election Obama advocated the construction of large numbers of solar and
wind based power plants, while McCain suggested that the nation build more nuclear reactors to get the country away from its need for oil. Dr.
Luft was shocked to find out how little the two candidates knew about the issue. Nuclear, solar, and wind power plants are used to generate
electricity, but today only 2% of the world’s electricity supply is powered by oil; “the people vying for the most powerful office in the world do
not understand basic energy 101”.
Oil today exercises a complete monopoly over the transportation sector, which is the backbone of a functioning
nation. While the magnitude of the world’s need for oil has become troubling, the most difficult reality is that there are currently no feasible
popular slogan of the Republican Party to, “drill here, drill now” or the Democrat’s vision to “use less
and conserve” are equally nonsensical in the eyes of Dr. Luft. Whether Americans are drilling domestically or consuming
less oil, OPEC will simply drill less and wait until other countries run out. The problem is quite simply that when it comes
to oil, the huge reserves of OPEC states means that they will inevitably control the game and its rules.
alternatives. The
So in the words of Dr. Luft, “If you want to beat Serena Williams, don’t play tennis against her; play cards, soccer, bowling or anything else, but
don’t play tennis.”

Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Energy alternatives solve oil dependence and market uncertainty
Sovacool 07 – Research Fellow for the Energy Governance Program @ National University of
Singapore [Benjamin K. Sovacool (Professor of International Affairs @ Virginia Tech University), “Oil
Independence Possible for U.S. by 2030,” Scitizen, 26 Oct, 2007 11:49 am, pg. http://scitizen.com/futureenergies/oil-independence-possible-for-u-s-by-2030_a-14-1167.html]
Oil independence is possible for the U.S. if comprehensive and aggressive energy policies are implemented
aimed at reducing demand for oil, increasing supply, and promoting alternative fuels.
The trick is to start by thinking about oil independence a little differently. Oil independence should not
be viewed as eliminating all imports of oil or reducing imports from hostile or unstable oil producing states. Instead, it should entail
creating a world where the costs of the country’s dependence on oil would be so small that they
would have little to no effect on our economic, military, or foreign policy. It means creating a world where the
estimated total economic costs of oil dependence would be less than one percent of U.S. gross domestic product by 2030.
Conceived in this way (and contrary to much political commentary these days), researchers at the Oak Ridge National
Laboratory (ORNL) have calculated that if the country as a whole reduced their demand for oil by 7.22
million barrels per day (MBD) and increased supply by 3 MBD, oil independence would be achieved by 2030
with a 95 percent chance of success. By reducing demand for oil, increasing its price elasticity, and increasing the
supply of conventional and unconventional petroleum products, ORNL researchers noted that the country would be
virtually immune from oil price shocks and market uncertainty. If large oil producing states were to respond to the
U.S. by cutting back production, their initial gains from higher prices would also reduce their market share, in turn further limiting their ability to
influence the oil market in the future.
We make the oil problem small enough that we change their foreign policy
decisions.
Sovacool 07 – Research Fellow for the Energy Governance Program @ National University of
Singapore [Benjamin K. Sovacool (Professor of International Affairs @ Virginia Tech University),
“Solving the oil independence problem: Is it possible?,” Energy Policy Volume 35, Issue 11, November
2007, Pages 5505-5514//ScienceDirect]
Indeed, a situation may be imminent where oil independence—properly conceptualized—is now
achievable for the US. If implemented quickly, a comprehensive policy aimed at developing
alternatives to oil and rigorously promoting transportation energy efficiency could effectively insulate
the US economy from oil price shocks. To accomplish this ambitious task, the country need not get
off oil. Instead, policymakers must make the “oil problem” small enough that it no longer constrains
the country's foreign policy decisions.
2AC—No Resource Co-op
History is on our side – Resource depletion leads to unbridled competition
Heinberg 12 - Senior Fellow-in-Residence @ Post Carbon Institute [Richard Heinberg , “Co-operation
in a world of scarce resources,” Al Jazeera, Last Modified: 13 Feb 2012 14:04, pg.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/02/20122410434136622.html]
The world's governments engage continually in both cooperative and competitive behaviour,
though sometimes extremes of these tendencies come to the fore - with open conflict exemplifying
unbridled competition. Geopolitics typically involves both cooperative and competitive strategies, with the long-term goal centred on
furthering national interest (including increased control of territory and access to resources).
Recent decades have generally seen increasing international cooperation, revealed in the expansion of trade, the proliferation of treaties and
conventions and the development of international laws and international institutions for justice and conflict resolution. The United Nations,
World Trade Organisation, World Bank and the International Criminal Court - as well as regional economic (eg: the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation) and military (eg: NATO) cooperation groups exemplify this trend. While some of these efforts appear to be geopolitically
motivated, others seem to be genuine attempts to reduce both international tensions and global environmental problems while advancing human
rights.
This trend toward increasing international cooperation could see a reversal in coming years and
decades. As noted above, history is replete with instances of resource scarcity fomenting conflict. In such
cases, competitive advantage typically resides either with nations that have domestic resources and
the ability to defend them, or with nations that develop a vigorous, flexible and motivated military
force able to take advantage of other nations' weaknesses in order to seize control of their
resources.
In addition to international conflict, a failure of human cooperation in the face of resource scarcity may also manifest as increasing conflict within
nations. Since 1945, three-quarters of all wars have occurred within nations rather than between them, with most occurring in the world's poorest
countries. About as many people may have died as a result of civil strife since 1980 as were killed in World War I. Civil conflicts devastate poor
nations by destroying essential infrastructure, driving human and capital flight, diverting scarce financial resources toward military spending,
undermining social trust, aggravating existing food shortages and spreading disease.
If the path towards increasing competition leads to both internal and external conflict, then the result - for
winners and losers alike, in a "full" world seeing rapid resource depletion - will most probably be
economic and ecological ruin accompanied by political chaos.
Vents Advantage
***Internal Link***
2AC—Vents K2 metagenomics
Vents key to metagenomics
Xie et al 11—Genetic Engineering and Genomics Joint Laboratory, Huazhong University of Science
and Technology. [“Comparative metagenomics of microbial communities inhabiting deep-sea
hydrothermal vent chimneys with contrasting chemistries,” Wei Xie, Fengping Wang, Lei Guo, Zeling
Chen, Stefan M Sievert, Jun Meng, Guangrui Hauang, Yuxin Li, Qingyu Yan, Shan Wu, Xin Want,
Shangwu Chen, Guangyuan He, Xiang Xiao, and Anlong Xu, The ISME Journal, Volume 5, 2011, pp
414-426, accessed from Emory] // AG
Deep-sea hydrothermal vent chimneys that form by interactions between hot fluids and cold
seawater are regarded as biogeochemical hot spots, with reactive gases, dissolved elements and
thermal and chemical gradients operating over spatial scales of millimeters and centimeters up to
meters (Schrenk et al., 2003; Kristall et al., 2006). These chemical and thermal gradients along and inside
the sulfide chimneys provide a wide range of microhabitats for chemolithoautotrophic microorganisms
that fix inorganic carbon using chemical energy obtained through the oxidation of reduced inorganic
compounds contained in the hydrothermal fluids, converting the geothermally derived energy into
microbial biomass (for example, Reysenbach and Shock, 2002).
Since the discovery of deep-sea hydrothermal vent systems, the microbial diversity in these systems
has been the subject of studies using both cultivation and cultivation-independent molecular
methods (for example, Nakagawa et al., 2005; Huber et al., 2007). These studies have reported a
remarkable phylogenetic diversity of microbes inhabiting the chimney walls, yet the metabolic
diversity and physiological potential of these microbial communities are only beginning to be revealed.
Progress in understanding this diversity has been made largely because of the recent developments in
high-throughput genomic technologies that enable microbial ecologists to address complex evolutionary
and ecological hypotheses at a community scale (Tyson et al., 2004; Tringe et al., 2005; DeLong et al.,
2006; Grzymski et al., 2008). With advances in sequencing technologies, large-scale genomic surveys
of microbial communities ( metagenomics ) are becoming routine, making deciphering the genetic
and functional ‘differences that make a difference’ within and among microbial habitats
increasingly feasible. Using metagenomic analysis, the metabolic potential and environmental
adaptation strategies of epi- and endosymbionts of deep-sea hydrothermal vent invertebrates have
been elucidated (Newton et al., 2007; Grzymski et al., 2008). The metagenome of a Lost City carbonate
chimney biofilm, which is so far the only published metagenome from any deep-sea vent chimney, was
found to contain a remarkable abundance and diversity of genes potentially involved in lateral gene
transfer (Brazelton and Baross, 2009). However, it remains elusive whether lateral gene transfer is a
common occurrence in chimney biofilms, or whether it is restricted to certain deep-sea hydrothermal vent
environment, such as Lost City. Comparative metagenomic analysis of chimney biofilms from either
different locations and/or with different geochemistry would provide valuable information on
identifying unique traits of these largely unknown deep-sea microbial communities, in particular in
comparison with those from other environments.
Vents key to metagenomics
Wang et al 09—Key Laboratory of Marine Biogenetic Resources, State Oceanic Administration.
[“GeoChip-based analysis of metabolic diversity of microbial communities at the Juan de Fuca Ridge
hydrothermal vent,” Fengping Wang, Huaiyang Zhou, Jun Mengc, Xiaotong Peng, Lijing Jiang, Pinc Sun,
Chuanlun Zhang, Joy D. Van Nostrande, Ye Deng, Zhili He, Liyou Wu, Jizhong Zhou, and Xiang Xiao,
proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Volume 106, Number 12, 2009, pp 4840-4845,
accessed from Emory] // AG
Deep-sea hydrothermal vents are one of the most unique and fascinating ecosystems on Earth.
Although phylogenetic diversity of vent communities has been extensively examined, their physiological
diversity is poorly understood. In this study, a GeoChip-based, high-throughput metagenomics
technology revealed dramatic differences in microbial metabolic functions in a newly grown
protochimney (inner section, Proto-I; outer section, Proto-O) and the outer section of a mature
chimney (4143-1) at the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Very limited numbers of functional genes were detected
in Proto-I (113 genes), whereas much higher numbers of genes were detected in Proto-O (504 genes)
and 4143-1 (5,414 genes). Microbial functional genes/populations in Proto-O and Proto-I were
substantially different (around 1% common genes), suggesting a rapid change in the microbial community
composition during the growth of the chimney. Previously retrieved cbbL and cbbM genes involved in
the Calvin Benson Bassham (CBB) cycle from deep-sea hydrothermal vents were predominant in Proto-O
and 4143-1, whereas photosynthetic green-like cbbL genes were the major components in Proto-I. In
addition, genes involved in methanogenesis, aerobic and anaerobic methane oxidation (e.g., ANME1 and
ANME2), nitrification, denitrification, sulfate reduction, degradation of complex carbon substrates, and
metal resistance were also detected. Clone libraries supported the GeoChip results but were less effective
than the microarray in delineating microbial populations of low biomass. Overall, these results suggest
that the hydrothermal microbial communities are metabolically and physiologically highly diverse,
and the communities appear to be undergoing rapid dynamic succession and adaptation in response
to the steep temperature and chemical gradients across the chimney.
2AC—Metagenomics K2 BioTech
Metagenomics key to advances in biotechnology
Schmeisser et al. 07—Department of Microbiology and Biotechnology, University of Hamburg.
[“Metagenomics, biotechnology with non-culturable microbes,” Christel Schmeisser, Helen Steele, and
Wofgang R. Streit, Applied microbiology and biotechnology, Volume 75, Number 5, 2007, pp 955-962,
accessed from Emory.] // AG
Metagenomics, the key to advances in biotechnology
It is well known that biotechnology has a continuous demand for novel genes and enzymes and
compounds. Natural diversity has so far been the best supplier for these novel molecules. This can be
explained by the vast richness of soil and other microbial niches. Studies based on 16 S rDNA/rRNA
have extensively redefined and expanded our knowledge of microbial diversity. Simple calculations of
soil microbial diversity place it in the range of between 3,000 and 11,000 genomes per gram of soil with
less than 1% being accessible through cultivation techniques (Torsvik and Ovreas 2002; Torsvik et al.
2002; Curtis and Sloan 2004). This is probably very similar for many other microbial niches but it is also
clear that many other microbial communities are less diverse. Pure culture analysis of soil
microorganisms has revealed that they are a rich source of novel therapeutic compounds such as
antibiotics (Raaijmakers et al. 1997), anticancer agents (Shen et al. 2001) and immunosuppressants
(Skoko et al. 2005), as well as a wide range of biotechnologically valuable products (Ullrich et al. 2004;
Inoue et al. 2005). However, the cultivation-dependent approach is limited by the fact that the
overwhelming majority of microorganisms present in soil cannot be cultured under laboratory
conditions. There is a vast amount of information held within the genomes of uncultured
microorganisms, and metagenomics is one of the key technologies used to access and investigate this
potential (Handelsman 2004; Pettit 2004; Streit et al. 2004; Streit and Schmitz 2004). Metagenomics
concerns the extraction, cloning and analysis of the entire genetic complement of a habitat (Handelsman
et al. 1998); it is an approach that allows the investigation of the wide diversity of individual genes
and their products as well as analysis of entire operons encoding biosynthetic or degradative
pathways. Metagenomics also makes it possible to answer key ecological questions by enabling
scientists to relate potential functions to specific microorganisms within multispecies soil
communities. Within this framework, this review describes metagenomic methodologies, their
applications in novel drug and enzyme discovery and their potential for biotechnological use.
2AC—Vents K2 BioTech
Deep-sea hydrothermal vents key to biotechnology
Thornburg et al 09—Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Oregon State University...[“Deep-Sea
Hydrothermal Vents: Potential Hot Spots for Natural Products Discovery?” Christopher C. Thornburg, T.
Mark Zabriskie, and Kerry L. McPhail, Journal of Natural Products, American Chemical Society and
American Society of Pharmacognosy, 20 October 2009, accessed from Emory] // AG
It is well recognized that natural product-based drugs provide a foundation of chemotherapy and trace
back to the use of terrestrial plants and intertidal marine algae as traditional medicines thousands of years
ago.1 As technologies have advanced, the search for new natural product sources of biologically
active compounds has expanded from terrestrial plants to microbes, to shallow water reef marine
algae and invertebrates with their associated symbionts, ocean sediment-derived marine microbes, and
even mine waste extremophiles.2,3 Screening of phylogenetically diverse and unique organisms from rare
or extreme ecosystems is a rational approach to discover novel chemotypes with medicinally
relevant biological activities.4 An unforeseen biological (especially microbial) diversity representing
a largely untapped reservoir of genetic and metabolic heterogeneity continues to yield a wealth of
new chemistry from these sources in ample demonstration of the value of natural products in drug
discovery efforts.5-7 Furthermore, natural products such as colchicine and kainic acid have played a
critical role as research tools for use as molecular probes to dissect biological mechanisms and
reveal new biochemical targets.8 In the recent literature, the deep sea has emerged as a new frontier
in natural products chemistry at a time when there is a dire need for new drug templates to combat
the escalating problem of drug resistance, especially in infectious diseases and cancer.
The deep ocean may be defined technically as depths beyond the euphotic zone (upper 200-300 m),10
where the sea bottom, in darkness, receives less than 1% of organic matter from photosynthetic primary
production, oxygen levels and temperatures (down to 2 °C) plummet, and hydrostatic pressures rise to
greater than 1000 atm in the deep trenches (10 m water ) 1 atm). However, in the realm of natural
products chemistry, many logically report depths beyond those readily accessible by scuba as “deep”.
Thus, in a recent, comprehensive deep-sea review, Skropeta considered the range of ocean environments
below 50 m (∼164 ft),9 which host a variety of marine invertebrates and microbes adapted to physical
extremes in environmental conditions. The introduction to the latter review provides an informative
overview of the deepsea environment and the effects of the extreme, although very stable, conditions on
the gene regulation, macromolecules, and the metabolism of deep-sea organisms.
Once thought to comprise a very low diversity of organisms evolved to occupy a physiologically
challenging niche that precluded the intense competition of many shallow-water ecosystems, deepsea benthic communities are now recognized to be highly diverse, although not abundant . In the
1960s, focused efforts to sample the deep ocean floor resulted in unexpected findings of high faunal
diversity, even in individual benthic dredge and epi-benthic sled samples from less than 100 to greater
than 5000 m.11
Nevertheless this high diversity, which is on the same order as that found in shallow tropical seas and
has been attributed to the seasonal and geological stability of the deep-sea environment, occurs in
relatively sparse pockets of slow-growing benthic organisms that are likely limited in density by food
scarcity. Therefore, the exceptionally dense and diverse communities within the immediate vicinity
of hydrothermal vents were in stark contrast to the surrounding sea bottom when first observed: in
1977, scientists aboard the manned deep submergence vehicle (DSV) AlVin dove in the Galapagos Rift
valley (ca. 2500 m) to investigate recently photographed communities of large suspension-feeding benthic
organisms surrounding active hydrothermal vents.12 Hydrothermal vents, considered one of the most
extreme environments on Earth, are formed when water heated in Earth’s crust by magma is forced
explosively to the surface through rock fissures in volcanic regions.
At deep-sea vent sites, in addition to physical extremes of temperature (up to 400 °C) and pressure and a
complete absence of light, there are also extremely steep chemical, pH, and temperature gradients
between vent fluids and the surrounding seawater.13 Remarkably, the growth rates of the deep vent
communities proved comparable to organisms from shallow tropical environments,14 and
ultimately, the presence of extremely high concentrations of chemosynthetic microorganisms led to
a new paradigm for primary production in the absence of sunlight.15,16 Noteworthy is that the
discovery of chemosynthetic symbiosis at deep-sea vent sites led to the realization that this phenomenon
occurs in a wide range of habitats worldwide, typically characterized by high sulfide concentrations and
the presence of free-living macroorganisms with reduced digestive systems. This diversity of
chemosynthetic habitats, as well as their hosts and symbionts, is engagingly reviewed byflats, some
shallow-water coastal sediments, whale and wood falls in the deeper ocean, cold seeps, mud volcanoes,
and continental margins, in addition to hydrothermal vents.
Deep-sea hydrothermal vents, besides being extreme environments, also represent some of the most
dynamic environments on Earth. With unpredictable temperatures, chemical concentrations, flow
dynamics, and seasonality, a single vent field may often be comprised of completely different fauna from
one visit to the next.14 As the vent matures and ages, early colonizers are superseded by a succession of
other species in parallel with the diminishing thermal flow volume, temperature, and amount of hydrogen
sulfide.18 A distinction has been made between deep-sea and shallow-water hydrothermal vents on the
basis of their biota. Tarasov et al. have shown a striking change in hydrothermal vent communities at
depths of 200 m (660 ft) based on the occurrence of obligate vent fauna.19
Thus, for the purpose of this review, deep-sea hydrothermal vents are those that occur below 200 m. In
order to discuss deep-sea hydrothermal vents as potential hot spots for natural products investigations,
here we consider the geological setting and geochemical nature of deep-sea vents that impacts the
biogeography of vent organisms, chemosynthesis, and the known biological and metabolic diversity of
eukaryotes and prokaryotes at vent sites and the handful of small molecule natural products isolated to
date directly from deep-sea vent organisms. Of critical importance too are the logistics of collecting
deep vent organisms, opportunities for re-collection, considering the dynamic nature of vent sites,
and the ability to culture natural product producing deep vent organisms in the laboratory.
Deep-sea hydrothermal vents will contribute to medical advances
Synnes 07—Deep-sea researcher. [“ Bioprospecting of organisms from the deep sea: scientific and
environmental aspects,” Marianne, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, Volume 9, Number 1,
2007, pp 53-59, accessed through Emory] // AG
Conclusion
From a scientist’s point of view, the fragile ecosystems such as deep-sea hydrothermal vents and coral
reefs have an enormous potential in contributing to future medical advances , and to provide
knowledge of how the marine organisms survive in their environment. This resource may thus
provide a powerful argument for protection of the deep-sea environment, in order to learn from it day by
day, and stop species from being eradicated even before they are identified.
Deep sea vents and cold seeps key to the biotech industry.
Synnes 07—M. (2007). [“Bioprospecting of organisms from the deep sea: scientific and environmental
aspects” Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy]
The phrase “bioprospecting” is today most frequently used to describe the collection and screening of biological material for commercial
purposes.
While bioprospecting of land-living organisms is common, bioprospecting of marine
organisms is a relatively new phenomenon. The ocean, which covers more than 70% of the earth’s surface, is a rich
source of biological and chemical diversity. More than 300,000 species of plants and animals have been described to date, and
marine organisms have been a source of unique chemical compounds with the potential for industrial development, such as pharmaceuticals,
molecular probes, enzymes, cosmetics, nutritional supplements, and agrichemicals. About 15,000 natural products have so far been discovered
from marine microbes, algae and invertebrates (Salomon et al. 2004).
Following an increasing number of antibiotic-resistant pathogenic bacteria, is a constant need for
new antimicrobial agents. The major source of antimicrobial agents is presently terrestrial microorganisms, and particularly soil
bacteria belonging to the genus Streptomyces. They are widely recognized as industrially important microorganisms because of their ability to
produce many kinds of novel secondary metabolites, including antibiotics (Williams et al. 1983 ). Different Streptomyces species are today
the rate of
discovery of novel metabolites from terrestrial microorganisms is decreasing, which has stimulated
the search for antimicrobial agents from alternative sources. Marine organisms have proved to be a
rich source of structurally novel and biologically active metabolites.
responsible for about 75% of commercially and medically useful antibiotics (Miyadoh 1993; Sujatha et al. 2005). However,
Targets for marine biomedical research
The most attractive marine targets for biomedical research are microorganisms or bottom-dwelling
organisms such as corals, sponges, and tunicates. The deep-sea corals are different from the
shallow-water species. They do not require symbiotic organisms and sunlight to provide their energy needs,
rather they actively feed upon materials and nutrients in the water column (Kiriakoulakis et al. 2004). In
addition to serve as habitat for other organisms such as fish and invertebrate communities, the deep-sea coral ecosystems provide
a rich biodiversity and are considered to be a potential source of novel pharmaceutical or
biotechnological compounds. Many invertebrates, like soft corals and sponges, defend themselves against
predators or competitors by producing toxic chemicals. These toxin-producing abilities are regarded to be a result of
strong evolutionary pressure to become poisonous, and many of the toxins are presently evaluated for medical
applications such as new antibiotics. However, thorough investigations of these invertebrates often reveal that many of the
secreted toxic chemicals do not come from the invertebrate itself. Rather, the source of the novel bioactive compounds may
be microorganisms that live in a symbiotic relationship with the invertebrates. As much as 50% of
the mass of a sponge may in fact be microorganisms (reviewed by Haefner 2003; Salomon et al. 2004).
The microbial growth of marine bacteria and the products of their metabolic activities differ
considerably from those of terrestrial bacteria, and they also produce different enzymes. It has been
estimated that marine environments harbour 3.67 × 1030 microorganisms (Whitman et al. 1998). The majority of these microbes has never been
cultured, identified, or classified, but is assumed to contain an enormous chemical richness (DeLong 1997). During evolution, the prokaryotes
have evolved to be able to colonize almost every surface or environment on Earth, no matter how hostile the environment are considered to be.
The extreme variety in oceanic environments regarding pressure, salinity, temperature, and
nutrients has forced marine microorganisms to develop unique biochemical and physiological
properties in order to survive (reviewed by Li and Qin 2005).
A rapid progress in technology within molecular biology during the past two decades has revealed many secrets of the marine bacteria, including
an extraordinary phylogenetic diversification. Considering
that marine microbial communities account for more
than 80% of life on earth, and the diversity among marine microorganisms, there is an enormous potential for
future drug discovery. More than 60 new chemical compounds have been isolated from marine actinomycetes over the last 10 years,
and about 2,500 new strains have been isolated (reviewed by Gullo et al. 2006).
Microbial communities in extreme environments
Microbial communities are found in extreme environments that were previously thought to be too hostile to permit the survival of living
organisms. Extremophilic bacteria survive and thrive at harsh conditions such as very acidic/basic pH, low/high temperatures, high salt
concentrations, elevated hydrostatic pressure, and even in the presence of radiation. The thermophiles and hyperthermophiles grow at high or
very high temperatures, respectively; the psychrophiles grow best at low temperatures; the acidophiles and alkaliphiles are optimally adapted to
live in environments with particularly acidic or basic pH values, respectively; the barophiles grow best under pressure, while halophiles require
NaCl for growth (reviewed by Fujiwara 2002). Most of the extremotolerant microorganisms are members of the domain Archaea (reviewed by
Eichler 2001; Egorova and Antranikian 2005). Archaea’s adaptation mechanisms to extreme pressure, temperature, toxicity, and pH values make
them particularly attractive to industry and pharmaceutical sector.
When focusing on bioprospecting of marine organisms it is natural to look for organisms that have
adapted to, and survived life in particularly harsh environments. Accelerating technological
development has made it possible for humans to reach to one of the most remote parts of the earth,
the deepest areas of the sea. Life in the deep sea must adapt to unique conditions of low or no light, high
pressure, low energy, and near-freezing or superheated temperatures.
The most extreme environments in the deep sea are considered to be the hydrothermal vents and
the cold seeps. Hydrothermal vents are found along mid-ocean ridges, and is formed where magma from the deep parts of the Earth
emerges. When seawater penetrates the crust, it is heated by the magma, and hot water loaded with high concentrations of various metals and
dissolved sulphide is emanated to the ocean, forming a hot vent. The water temperatures on the hot water chimneys may exceed 400°C.
Hydrothermal vents host an array of life which has adapted to living in often highly toxic waters
and complete darkness. In addition to surviving at high pressures, organisms found in these
environments must also be able to thrive at extreme temperatures. Hydrothermal vents can be situated both at
shallow and abyssal depths. Maugeri et al. (2002) reported that the degree of obligacy of fauna changed at the depth of approximately 200 m.
Deep-sea (>200 m) hydrothermal communities were found to differ from shallow-water ones (<200 m) in a much higher ratio of vent obligate
taxa (Maugeri et al. 2002). Though
deep-sea hydrothermal vents are typically low in biodiversity at the
macro-organism level, they host one of the highest levels of microbial diversity on the planet (Butler et
al. 2001; Tunnicliffe and Thomson 1999). The bacteria colonizing this area use sulphur from the waters of deep-sea vents as a source of energy
and can be found both in the water column and as surface colonies on the rocks near hot vents (reviewed by Edwards et al. 2005).
Cold seeps occur mostly along continental margins, and are a result of methane or methanehydrate ice, hydrogen sulphide, or other hydrocarbon-rich fluid leakages from the sediments. The cold
seeps provide energy for bacteria of which clams, mussels, and tubeworms feed upon (Krüger et al. 2005). These bacteria process sulphides and
methane through chemosynthesis into chemical energy. Where methane seeps out of the bottom of seas and oceans below 600 m depth, methane
hydrate is solid since methane freezes at low temperatures and high pressure. Cold-adapted
organisms found here, prosper
at temperatures close to the freezing point of water, and in the deep sea they have to be adapted to both extreme
temperatures and extremely high pressures (reviewed by Hoyoux et al. 2004; Georlette et al. 2004; Yayanos 1995).
Extreme living—extreme organisms
To be able to survive in such extreme environments, all biomolecules within the cells, including
proteins, nucleic acids, and lipids, must be adapted to properly function under these conditions.
The extremophiles produce an amazing array of enzymes capable of catalysing specific biochemical
reactions under extreme conditions, which are of particular interest to the industry (reviewed by Tehei and Zaccai
2005). These enzymes are able to perform industrial processes under conditions where conventional
proteins would be denatured. They may have various applications like detergent production, sugar
chemistry, lipid and oil chemistry, and food processing (Demirjian et al. 2001; reviewed by Schiraldi and De Rosa 2002;
van den Burg 2003; Gomes and Steiner 2004).
The barophiles are microorganisms adapted to living under extreme pressure. Research on the physiology and molecular biology of deep-sea
barophilic bacteria has identified pressure-regulated operons and shown that microbial growth is influenced by the relationship between
Enzymes produced by these high
pressure adapted bacteria are often more functional under high pressure conditions than at
atmospheric pressure (Horikoshi 1998). Thus, one of the possible biotechnological applications of such
deep-sea microorganisms may be high pressure bioreactor systems.
temperature and pressure in the deep-sea environment (Horikoshi 1998; Nakasone et al. 1998).
Thermophilic bacteria grow optimally at temperatures between 45 and 80°C, while hyperthermophiles have growth optima over 80°C. Enzymes
or other components mediating vital physiological processes are therefore adapted to these temperatures. Proteins from hyperthermophilic
bacteria are generally able to remain stable at temperatures close to, or higher than the boiling point, because they are more compact in their
structure (Mombelli et al. 2002). Previous studies have reported that the key to protein function at thermal extremes is the maintenance of an
appropriate balance between molecular stability and structural flexibility (reviewed by Fields 2001). Other adaptations that have made it possible
for the hyperthermophiles to survive in such harsh environments are the reduced amount of flexibility DNA, which normally denatures at high
temperatures. The DNA keeps its double-stranded form due to positive supercoiling, which allows more heat stability than the negative
supercoiling in DNA of other organisms, and unique DNA binding proteins help to stabilize the DNA (Lopez-Garcia and Forterre 2000; Daniel
and Cowan 2000; Reeve et al. 2004).
The majority of extremely thermophilic microorganisms have been isolated from terrestrial and shallow marine solfataras, and have been a source
of thermostable enzymes that display outstanding stability against high temperature (reviewed by Atomi 2005). Being able to function under
conditions that would denature enzymes taken from most non-thermophilic organisms, these enzymes have proven to be of great use in the
biotechnology industry. A
good example of an enzyme isolated from thermophilic bacteria is the
thermostable DNA polymerase (Taq) used for PCR technology, from the bacterium Thermus
aquaticus, a bacterial species first found in a hot spring in Yellowstone National Park (Chien et al. 1976).
During the past two decades, however, an increasing number of new genera and species of thermophilic bacteria have been isolated from deepsea hydrothermal vent communities (Guezennec 2002). Deep-sea vent microbial communities are highly diverse metabolically, physiologically,
and taxonomically (Prieur 1992; Butler et al. 2001; Zierenberg et al. 2000). For example, Thermococcus peptonophilus, isolated from a deep-sea
hydrothermal vent, produces
an SDS-resistant protease which is stable in boiling water (Horikoshi 1998), and a thermostable
DNA polymerase has also been isolated from the deep-sea hydrothermal vent microorganism Thermococcus
litoralis, called the Vent polymerase (Mattila et al. 1991). The Vent polymerase has a proofreading 3′–5′
exonuclease activity, is reported to have a lower error rate than the Taq polymerase, and may
therefore be a better alternative than Taq in some PCR applications.
Bacteria isolated from hydrothermal vents have also demonstrated their abilities to produce unusual extracellular polymers, and so far three main
genera producing exopolysaccharides (EPS) have been identified: Pseudoalteromonas, Alteromonas, and Vibrio. Extremophilic microorganisms
have the potential to be a source of new polysaccharides, and to provide knowledge of how biomolecules are stabilized when subjected to
extreme conditions. Microbial
polysaccharides may have novel applications such as viscosifiers, gelling
agents, emulsifiers, stabilizers, and texture enhancers (reviewed by Mancuso Nichols et al. 2005).
Organisms living in a particularly cold environment produce enzymes or other vital components that are adapted to function in physiological
processes at these low temperatures. Cold-adapted organisms prosper in cold habitats such as polar and alpine regions or the deep sea (Bowman
et al. 1997; Margesin and Schinner 1997; Morita et al. 1997), and have developed several adaptations to survive in this extreme environment. For
example, to withstand temperatures below freezing, the psychrophiles protect the cells from ice formation by the synthesis of antifreeze
molecules and cryoprotectors (Ewart et al. 1999). The
psychrophilic organisms also synthesize cold-adapted or
psychrophilic enzymes with high catalytic activity at low temperatures associated with a low
thermal stability, to deal with the reduction of chemical reaction rates induced by low
temperatures. These antifreeze molecules and psychrophilic enzymes offer a high potential not only
for fundamental research, but also for biotechnological applications (reviewed by Hoyoux et al. 2004; Cavicchioli
et al. 2002).
The deep sea—enormous resource or fragile ecosystem?
The increasing research and fisheries activity in the deep sea brings up important aspects regarding sustainability. Deep-sea expeditions are
increasingly frequent, and their focus has been in the last few years shifting from geological and geophysical studies to ecological, biological, and
physiological studies, and lately also to bioprospecting.
Most of the deep-sea investigations are still considered to be
purely scientific, but the potential of the marine environment for new discoveries of drug sources
and cures for diseases has lead to an increasing commercial exploration. Drugs derived from
marine organisms cover a variety of applications like antibiotics, anti-cancer, antioxidant, anti-
fungal, anti-HIV, anti-tuberculosis, and anti-malaria. The various applications and the desire for
finding new drugs seem to be endless, resulting in a considerable pressure on the marine environment.
2AC—Deep Sea Bacteria K2 BioTech
Deep-sea bacteria key to biotech industry development
Synnes 07—Deep-sea researcher. [“ Bioprospecting of organisms from the deep sea: scientific and
environmental aspects,” Marianne, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, Volume 9, Number 1,
2007, pp 53-59, accessed through Emory] // AG
The barophiles are microorganisms adapted to living under extreme pressure. Research on the
physiology and molecular biology of deep-sea barophilic bacteria has identified pressure-regulated
operons and shown that microbial growth is influenced by the relationship between temperature
and pressure in the deep-sea environment (Horikoshi 1998; Nakasone et al. 1998). Enzymes produced
by these high pressure adapted bacteria are often more functional under high pressure conditions than at
atmospheric pressure (Horikoshi 1998). Thus, one of the possible biotechnological applications of such
deep-sea microorganisms may be high pressure bioreactor systems.
Thermophilic bacteria grow optimally at temperatures between 45 and 80°C, while
hyperthermophiles have growth optima over 80°C. Enzymes or other components mediating vital
physiological processes are therefore adapted to these temperatures. Proteins from hyperthermophilic
bacteria are generally able to remain stable at temperatures close to, or higher than the boiling
point, because they are more compact in their structure (Mombelli et al. 2002). Previous studies have
reported that the key to protein function at thermal extremes is the maintenance of an appropriate balance
between molecular stability and structural flexibility (reviewed by Fields 2001). Other adaptations that
have made it possible for the hyperthermophiles to survive in such harsh environments are the reduced
amount of flexibility DNA, which normally denatures at high temperatures. The DNA keeps its doublestranded form due to positive supercoiling, which allows more heat stability than the negative
supercoiling in DNA of other organisms, and unique DNA binding proteins help to stabilize the
DNA (Lopez-Garcia and Forterre 2000; Daniel and Cowan 2000; Reeve et al. 2004).
The majority of extremely thermophilic microorganisms have been isolated from terrestrial and shallow
marine solfataras, and have been a source of thermostable enzymes that display outstanding stability
against high temperature (reviewed by Atomi 2005). Being able to function under conditions that
would denature enzymes taken from most non-thermophilic organisms, these enzymes have proven
to be of great use in the biotechnology industry. A good example of an enzyme isolated from
thermophilic bacteria is the thermostable DNA polymerase (Taq) used for PCR technology, from the
bacterium Thermus aquaticus, a bacterial species first found in a hot spring in Yellowstone National Park
(Chien et al. 1976).
2AC—Marine Organisms K2 Pharma
Marine organisms key to pharmaceuticals and drug production
Swathi 12 [V. Swathi – SSJ college of pharmacy, Pulla Ravi Pratap, N. Monila, S. Harshini, J.
RajaSekhar and A. Ramesh, September 2012, “The Oceans – Unlocking the Treasured Drugs”,
International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Chemical Sciences \\NL]
Conclusion and Future Prospective
The Oceans, which is called the ‘Storehouse of unexplored treasured medicine” have structural
unique natural products that are mainly accumulated in living organisms. Several of these
compounds show pharmacological activities and are helpful for the invention and discovery of
bioactive compounds, primarily useful for many diseases and ailments. The life-saving drugs are
mainly found abundantly in microorganisms, algae and invertebrates, while they are scarce in
vertebrates. In the future, marine ecosystems could represent an increasingly important source of
medical treatments, nutritional supplements, pesticides, cosmetics and other commercial products.
Drugs from the ocean are without question one of the most promising new directions of marine
science today . Modern technologies have opened vast areas of research for the extraction of
biomedical compounds and important metabolites, whose exploration has just begun.
Marine organisms key to pharmaceuticals and drug production
Swathi et al.12 [V. Swathi – SSJ college of pharmacy, Pulla Ravi Pratap, N. Monila, S. Harshini, J.
RajaSekhar and A. Ramesh, September 2012, “The Oceans – Unlocking the Treasured Drugs”,
International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Chemical Sciences \\NL]
INTRODUCTION
Oceans cover about 70% of the Earth surface. Oceans are the mother of origin of life. Societies rely
heavily on the ocean for many of their needs. Most of the diverse system on Earth exists in the oceans.
Novel marine biodiversity is concentrated in four areas: 1.Coral Reefs, 2. Ocean / Seamounts, 3.
Hydrothermal Vents and 4. Abyssal Slopes and Plains. Compounds with uncommon and exciting
biological activity have been discovered in marine environment. The ocean is the key source of
organisms that are beginning to yield new and potent drugs for treatment of human disease, as
well as new products for use in biotechnology. The ocean is the most promising frontier for sources
of drugs and marine organisms by providing models for understanding human biology. The uses of
marine-derived compounds are varied, but the most stimulating potential lies in the medical realm.
Marine organisms are used fully or partial for making or modifying products, for specific uses with
the help of marine pharmacology. With the aid of different molecular, cellular and biotechnological
techniques, mankind has been able to expose many biological techniques which are applicable for
aquatic organisms. Harvey et al1, have examined 10% amongst 25,000 plants for the biological activity.
A search for new pharmaceutical drugs from marine organisms are covered by 80% flora and fauna
taxons which are from marine environs. The ability to procure the marine life forms is fundamental,
to turn a natural compound or a synthetic counterpart into a safe and effective pharmaceutical
product. Most of the bioactive products have been isolated3 from marine invertebrates such as Sponges,
Tunicates, Corals, Molluscs, Bryozoans etc as well as from marine microorganism such as Bacteria and
Fungi. The looks for new metabolites from marine organisms have resulted in extraction4 of almost
10,000 metabolites till date, out of which many are gifted, with pharmacodynamic properties. Secondary
metabolites produced by marine bacteria and invertebrates have yielded medicinal products such
as novel Antiinflammatory agents (pseudopterosins, topsentins, scytonemin, manoalide), Antibiotics
(marinone), Anti-cancer agents (sarcodictyin, bryostatins, eleutherobin, discodermolide). By merging
the potential of microbial genetics with biological and chemical diversity, apts a bright future for
marine natural product drug discovery5 and related compounds which have taken an edge for
future clinical and advanced preclinical trials6. Deep water glass sponges from silica based structures
may improve the function of fiberoptic cables7 and these provide an insight into bone regeneration.
Most of these derived compounds are used in a variety of consumer products like skin creams, hair
treatments and cosmetics.
Most of the drugs in use today have come from nature . Raising the scientific awareness is now
being focused on the potential medical uses of the benthic organisms. These organisms have
developed unique adaptations to survive in cold, dark and highly pressurized environments.
Metabolites with novel and chemical structures belong to diversified classes and been characterized from
Mangrove and Mangal associates. Many chemicals like amino acids, carbohydrates, fats and proteins are
products of primary metabolism which are vital for maintaining life processes. Some secondary
metabolites like alkaloids, steroids, and terpenoids are classified into secondary metabolites which have
pharmacological, toxicological and ecological significance. Biomedical compounds extracted from
marine organisms8 regulate by understanding the molecular basis of cellular reproduction and
development.
Marine Pharmaceutical Resources
Marine natural products discovery, an area of research has made a considerable progress in recent
years by fulfilling a meaningful role in championing the cause of ocean conservation. The
identification of medically useful compounds produced by marine organisms has led to drug
development opportunities. During the last 30 years around 24,500 samples were isolated, identified
and screened for biological activities such as antidiarrhoeal, antimicrobial, antiviral, antimalarial,
antidiabetic, anti-hyperlipidaemic etc. Most of them exhibited remarkable biological behavior with new
novel chemical structures like amino acids, fatty alcohol esters, glycosides, terpenoids, alkaloids etc.
Because of its enormous biodiversity, the oceans offer huge potential for the discovery of new drugs
with the increase in antibioticresistant microbes, it is increasingly important for new compounds to
be obtained and the oceans offer exceptional opportunities for new pharmaceuticals. Most of the
marine environs cover photic and aphotic zones, covering wide thermal (below freezing temperature to
about 350°C in hydothermal vents), pressure (1- 1000 atm) and nutrient ranges (eutrophic to
oligotrophic).
Sources of Bioactive Compounds
There are many number of changes that took place during the adaptation to the terrestrial environment,
but the identification of medically useful compounds produced by marine organisms has led not
only to vitally important drug development opportunities, but also increased interest in preserving
ocean habitat for research. Furthermore, it has fueled the development of new thechniques11 for
generating synthetic versions of natural compounds in order to prevent the unnecessary harvesting of
organisms from their natural habitats. The scientific study of marine animals is an endeavor defined
by unpredictable and serendipitous discoveries. The ability to procure the marine life forms12 is
fundamental to turn a natural compound or a synthetic counterpart into a safe and effective
pharmaceutical product.
***Plan Solves***
2AC—Further Research Key
Important to research deep-sea vents
Thornburg et al 09—Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Oregon State University...[“Deep-Sea
Hydrothermal Vents: Potential Hot Spots for Natural Products Discovery?” Christopher C. Thornburg, T.
Mark Zabriskie, and Kerry L. McPhail, Journal of Natural Products, American Chemical Society and
American Society of Pharmacognosy, 20 October 2009, accessed from Emory] // AG
Summary and Conclusions
Terrestrial microorganisms (fungi and bacteria) have had a major impact on the development of
antimicrobial and antitumor compounds since the original discovery of penicillin in 1929.123 This should
be expected considering that the total global estimate of prokaryotes (archaea and bacteria) within the
terrestrial subsurface (0-10 m) is 3.0 × 1029. In comparison, deep-ocean subsurface sediments (0-10 m)
are estimated to contain 6.6 × 1029 marine prokaryote cells.104 Yet, until recently the deep ocean
has been largely ignored as a source of new biologically active natural products. Importantly, much
of Earth is covered by deep-marine sediments that dilute these numbers in terms of cells per total area.
This is significant given the costs of sampling in the deep ocean (e.g., a 30-day expedition cruise costs
roughly US $1 million with average daily operating costs of about US $30 000)124 versus terrestrial and
shallow-marine sampling costs. Thus, a more successful sampling design, in terms of increasing the
likelihood of collecting a larger biomass and potentially more diverse community, should look at
hydrothermal vent communities of the deep sea. Notably, decreasing numbers of microorganisms with
depth to almost undetectable levels are observed in deep-ocean cold sediment cores.125 In contrast,
hydrothermally active sediments from the Guaymas Basin (Gulf of California) show high abundance and
diversity of bacteria and archaea.73 Although many new and diverse 16S rRNA sequences have been
described from various hydrothermal environments, some of these communities may contain only a few
dominant phylogenetic groups. However, Sogin and colleagues have shown that new molecular
approaches aimed at defining the “rare biosphere”, which is typically masked by conventional molecular
techniques, show an even greater diversity than previously estimated by 16S rRNA analysis.67,71
Furthermore, the impact of the geography and geological setting of hydrothermal vents on their biota
implies even further untapped biological diversity awaiting discovery from the vast unexplored volcanic
regions at more remote locations, which are currently beyond the manageable cost and logistics of deepsea vent explorations. Thus, biodiscovery within these environments appears still to be in its infancy ,
as the full extent of the biological diversity present has yet to be realized.
Beyond a direct extrapolation of biological diversity to chemical diversity, unprecedented secondary
metabolic pathways should be associated with the fundamentally different primary metabolism of these
organisms, which is supported by altered protein and lipid compositions, conformations, and binding
activities.9 The presence of chemical defenses in some deep-sea vent invertebrates is implied by the
feeding-deterrent assays reported by Hay et al.35 Additionally, anaerobic cycling of carbon often requires
close associations of interdependent microorganisms, and these microbial interactions may be supported
by an efficient communication network of small signaling molecules of potential utility for human health
applications. New, more advanced deep-sea research technology and molecular techniques similar to
those already employed at Verenium (formerly Diversa Corporation) and other research institutions
are aimed at screening a more inclusive genetic assembly and may permit a molecular genomics
approach to accelerate natural product discoveries from deep-sea vent environments. The source
material for this natural products chemistry appears to be accessible from collections of bulk field
samples using deep-sea submersibles and from laboratory isolation and cultivation of some
microorganisms. No assessment of the potential for discovery of new chemical templates can be made
based on the sole reports to date of the loihichelins and ammonificins from deep-sea vent organisms, and
indeed it is too early to designate deep-sea vents as natural products “hot spots”. However, the
burgeoning evidence of microbial diversity and concomitant species competition and syntropy/
symbiosis, in tandem with the potential to integrate biological sampling for natural products
research with ongoing deep-sea vent explorations, warrants concerted natural products
investigations of deep-sea hydrothermal vent and cold-seep environments.
We need further exploration of vents
Tivey 04—Ph.D. in Geological Oceanography from the University of Washington. [“The Remarkable
Diversity of Seafloor Vents: Explorations reveal an increasing variety of hydrothermal vents,” Oceanus,
Volume 42, Number 2, 2004, accessed from Emory] // AG
New ways to find vents
Two decades of study have taught us that there is no single type of seafloor hydrothermal vent system.
The plumbing systems beneath the seafloor are both diverse and incredibly complex.
Ocean scientists today are posing questions about the dimensions and evolution of the hydrologic systems
beneath vent sites. We puzzle over how hot these fluids get, how deep into the crust they descend,
and how far they travel before venting at the seafloor. And where does seawater enter these
systems?
To answer these questions, we will need to continue exploring , not only over geographic space, but
also over time. In the early years, most vents were discovered serendipitously, but as we’ve explored and
learned more about these systems, we’ve been able to develop systematic methods for pinpointing
sites.
For example, a technique of “tow-yowing” has been developed, where a conductivity-temperature-depth
(CTD) sensor is raised and lowered through the water column in a saw-tooth pattern above the ridge to
map the locations of plumes, and then to home in and map the buoyant portion of plumes coming directly
from active vent sites. This technique was used successfully to find vent sites in the Pacific and Atlantic,
and most recently in the Indian Ocean.
Seafloor observatories
The need to explore the dynamics of hydrothermal systems over time has led to new technologies
and the development of seafloor observatories. New, more precise and durable instruments allow us
to monitor temperature and fluid chemistry at vent sites for hours, days, or months—as opposed to
observing those properties for brief moments and grabbing one-time samples.
The future of hydrothermal studies was displayed in a recent series of coordinated experiments. With
support from the National Science Foundation’s Ridge Interdisciplinary Global Experiments
(RIDGE) program, a team of researchers built a seafloor observatory on the Endeavour segment of
the Juan de Fuca Ridge.
During the summers of 2000 and 2001, scientists made complementary and continuous observations
centered around the Main Endeavour Field (the same site I first visited in 1984) and at vent sites to the
north and south. The program goals included making more accurate measurements of the heat and mass
flowing from the system, and observing how the hydrothermal plumbing is influenced by tides and by
high-temperature reactions that separate elements into saltier liquids and more vapor-rich fluids (a process
called “phase separation”).
Instruments were deployed to continuously monitor vent fluid temperatures, flow rates, and chemical
properties. Scientists also used newly developed samplers to collect fluids at regular time intervals. While
these instruments were in place, other researchers made acoustic images of vent structures and venting
fluids. Still others used the Autonomous Benthic Explorer (ABE) to measure water column properties
above the vent field, seafloor depth, and magnetic signatures.
Later in the program, the team deployed a systematic array of current meters, thermistor strings,
magnetometers, and tilt meters. Scientists even tested techniques to “eavesdrop” on the data being
collected and download it without removing the instrument from the vent. The result of this collective
effort was the most comprehensive study of a hydrothermal system to date, and a model for future
seafloor observatories.
A continually unfolding story
As we develop these new techniques and instruments, our ability to explore ongoing seafloor
processes will grow. More than a quarter-century into our studies, we still find ourselves constantly
revising and refining our ideas about hydrothermal systems.
2AC—EM Mapping Solves
EM key to map vents—key to overcome pitfalls of current methods
Hamoudi et al 11—Helmholts Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences.
[“Aeromagnetic and Marine Measurements,” Hamoudi Mohamed, Yoann Quesnel, Jerome Dyment, and
Vincent Lesur, Geomagnetic Observations and Models, Chapter 4, 2011, pp 57-103, accessed from
Emory] // AG
Other important features that exhibit magnetic signature at deep-sea vessel altitudes are active and
fossil hydrothermal sites (e.g., Tivey and Dyment 2010). Sites lying on a basaltic basement are
associated with a negative magnetic anomaly, i.e., the titanomagnetites are altered to titanomaghemites
and non magnetic minerals under the effect of pervasive hydrothermal fluid circulation (Tivey et al. 1993;
Tivey and Johnson 2002). Conversely, sites lying on ultramafic rocks such as site Rainbow on the Mid
Atlantic Ridge are associated with a strong positive anomaly (Dyment et al. 2005), possibly the result of
new magnetic minerals created by serpentinization (magnetite) or by sulfide deposition and accumulation
(pyrrhotite). These results suggest deep-sea magnetics is a suitable method to detect and
characterize fossil hydrothermal vents and evaluate the mining potential of such ore deposits on the
seafloor.
2AC—US K2 Vents Exploration
US key to exploration—NOAA and NSF
Allen 01—Associate Professor of Law at University of Washington. [“Protecting the Oceanic Gardens
of Eden: International Law Issues in Deep-Sea Vent Resource Conservation and Management,” Craig H.
Allen, Georgetown International Environmental Law Review, Volume 13, 2001, accessed from
LexisNexis] // AG
"The deep ocean floor is one of the richest, but at the same time one of the least known, ecosystems in the
planet." n55 It is, therefore, fitting that marine scientific research is, so far, the most common activity
at hydrothermal vent sites. Scientific expeditions to the oceans' vent fields seek to gain an
understanding of such phenomena as global plate tectonics, heat loss and transfer processes within
the Earth, marine chemistry and mineral deposit formation, marine biodiversity and ecology, the
origin and evolution of life and its physical limits, and the possible existence of a deep microbial
biosphere within the Earth. These scientific findings may prove invaluable in efforts to predict volcanic
and seismic events. The benefits to earthquake-prone regimes, such as the U.S. west coast, are
potentially enormous. Research in the United States is supported in part by the National Science
Foundation, through its Ridge Inter-Disciplinary Global Experiments (RIDGE) Program, n56 and
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) VENTS program, established in
1984 to conduct research on the oceanic impacts and consequences of submarine volcanoes and
hydrothermal vents. n57
Vent researchers have adopted several exploratory mechanisms, including surface ships, towed
sleds fitted with sensors, video cameras and sample collection apparati, unmanned submersibles
and, of course, manned submersibles like the now legendary Alvin. Increasingly, scientists are turning
to fixed sensors to learn about the seafloor. The marine scientific research community received a boon in
1993 when the U.S. government granted selective access to real-time and historical data from the U.S.
Navy's Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) network. n58 SOSUS now permits scientists to listen in on
marine seismic events as they occur. Similarly, the New Millennium Observatory (NeMO), located in
1500 meters of water roughly 300 miles off the Oregon-Washington coast, provides an opportunity for a
multi-year monitoring and sampling program on the summit of an active seabed volcano. The observatory
uses a variety of sampling, sensing, and photographic equipment to examine and record the relationships
between volcanic events, and the chemistry and distribution of hydrothermal vents, and the biologic
communities that depend on them. n59 By 2005, North Pacific seabed [*575] research efforts may be
enhanced by the "NEPTUNE" project, which would establish a system of high speed, submarine fiberoptic cables to connect remote, interactive experimental sites with land-based laboratories and classrooms
along the west coast of the United States and Canada. n60
2AC—Methane in Vents So Mapping Solves
Methane forms and changes organic compounds in vents
McCollom & Seewald 07—Ph.D. in geochemistry from Washington University // Ph.D. in
geochemistry from the University of Minnesota. [“Abiotic Synthesis of Organic Compounds in Deep-Sea
Hydrothermal Environments,” Tom McCollom and Jeffrey Seewald, Chemical Reviews, Volume 107,
Number 2, 2007, pp 382-401, accessed from Emory] // AG
Ever since the discovery of deep-sea hydrothermal systems in the late 1970s, there has been keen
interest in the potential for abiotic synthesis of organic compounds in these environments. This
interest arises, in part, from the ability of methane and other organic compounds in hydrothermal
fluids to provide sources of metabolic energy and fixed carbon for biological communities at the
seafloor and in the overlying water column.1,2 In addition, several current theories propose that the
origin of life on Earth occurred in submarine hydrothermal systems, and abiotic synthesis may have
supplied the prebiotic organic compounds from which life emerged.3,4
Generally speaking, organic matter in geologic environments can be broadly attributed to three possible
sources: “biogenic” compounds formed by biological organisms as part of their metabolic and
biosynthetic activities, “thermogenic” compounds generated by thermal decomposition of living biomass
or of biologically derived compounds that have undergone diagenetic processes (e.g., kerogen), and
“abiotic” compounds that are formed by purely chemical processes with no participation of biological
organisms. For many organic compounds, however, it can be difficult to attribute their origin to one
of these sources because they can be generated by more than one process. Common examples
include methane and acetate, which can form as a byproduct of microbial metabolism, during
thermal decomposition of bioorganic matter, or by abiotic processes such as Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.
Although it is increasingly accepted among earth scientists that abiotic compounds are readily
synthesized from inorganic precursors in hydrothermal environments, unambiguous identification of
those compounds that may have an abiotic source is particularly problematic because of the ubiquitous
presence of biological and thermogenic organic matter in surface and near-surface environments. As a
consequence, assessments of the potential contribution of abiotic synthesis in these systems have
relied heavily on theoretical and experimental studies.
A variety of organic compounds have been identified in deep-sea hydrothermal fluids and
accompanying mineral deposits, ranging from simple compounds like methane and ethane to more
complex compounds like long-chain hydrocarbons, fatty acids, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.
These compounds are particularly abundant in hydrothermal systems that are overlain by organic-rich
sediments, such as Guaymas Basin, Escanaba Trough, and Middle Valley.5-9 However, the organic
matter in these systems is predominantly derived from thermogenic and biologic sources, obscuring any
potential contribution from abiotic inputs. As such, these systems provide little information that can be
used to assess possible abiotic inputs and are not considered further in the present discussion. Instead, we
will focus on unsedimented systems where abiotic sources may contribute a larger (and therefore
detectable) fraction of the organic matter found in hydrothermal fluids and mineral deposits.
We need to find out more about methane in vents
McCollom & Seewald 07—Ph.D. in geochemistry from Washington University // Ph.D. in
geochemistry from the University of Minnesota. [“Abiotic Synthesis of Organic Compounds in Deep-Sea
Hydrothermal Environments,” Tom McCollom and Jeffrey Seewald, Chemical Reviews, Volume 107,
Number 2, 2007, pp 382-401, accessed from Emory] // AG
5. Concluding Remarks
The high abundance of methane in high-temperature hydrothermal fluids and fluid inclusions, its
isotopic composition, and experiments demonstrating abiotic synthesis under hydrothermal conditions
suggest that abiotic methane is present in deep-sea hydrothermal fluids and may even represent the
dominant source in many systems, particularly those hosted in serpentinites. The possible contribution
of abiotic synthesis to more complex organic matter, however, is less clear. While hydrocarbons and other
organic compounds have been observed in hydrothermal fluids and associated mineral deposits, criteria
that can be used to differentiate the abiotic compounds from those derived from other sources have not
yet emerged. Experimental studies have shown that light hydrocarbons and more complex
compounds can be synthesized under certain hydrothermal conditions, while other experiments
conducted under similar conditions have failed to produce organic compounds except for methane. It is
not yet clear what factors control whether or not synthesis can proceed, making it difficult at this
time to identify with certainty those environments within natural hydrothermal systems where
abiotic synthesis might be occurring.
Some additional observations could significantly improve understanding of abiotic synthesis in
hydrothermal environments. First, more comprehensive analyses of the organic composition of vent
fluids and mineral deposits would be helpful. To date, organic analyses of vent fluids in unsedimented
systems have been largely limited to methane, and measurements of other compounds would provide
additional constraints to evaluate possible abiotic contributions. Isotopic measurements of these
compounds are prospectively very useful, given that abiotic organic compounds from other environments
appear to exhibit identifiable isotope trends. Second, further experimental studies are required to
understand the range of conditions that allow for abiotic synthesis in hydrothermal environments. These
experiments should include isotopic analysis of reactants and products to more clearly define the isotopic
composition of abiotically synthesized compounds.
Achieving these research objectives will present significant challenges to future researchers. For
example, the low abundance of many organic compounds in the highly saline and H2S-rich vent fluids
requires development of sampling and analytical methods beyond the capabilities of those currently
employed in deep-sea research. From an experimental perspective, the presence of significant levels of
Abiotic Synthesis of Organic Compounds Chemical Reviews, 2007, Vol. 107, No. 2 399 background
carbon in natural minerals makes experimental study of isotopic fractionation problematic for
hydrothermal conditions where yields of abiotic compounds may be low. Nevertheless, overcoming
these challenges will be required to make more precise assessments of the potential contributions of
abiotic synthesis to the organic matter of hydrothermal systems.
***Impact***
2AC—US Pharma Industry K2 Solve Bioterror
US pharmaceutical industry is key to saving millions from a bioterror attack
Washington Post 1 (Justin Gillis, “Scientists Race for Vaccines,” November 8, Lexis)
U.S. scientists, spurred into action by the events of Sept. 11, have begun a concerted assault on
bioterrorism, working to produce an array of new medicines that include treatments for smallpox, a safer
smallpox vaccine and a painless anthrax vaccine. At least one major drug company, Pharmacia Corp. of
Peapack, N.J., has offered to let government scientists roam through the confidential libraries of millions
of compounds it has synthesized to look for drugs against bioterror agents. Other companies have
signaled that they will do the same if asked. These are unprecedented offers, since a drug company's
chemical library, painstakingly assembled over decades, is one of its primary assets, to which federal
scientists usually have no access."A lot of people would say we won World War II with the help of a
mighty industrial base," said Michael Friedman, a onetime administrator at the Food and Drug
Administration who was appointed days ago to coordinate the pharmaceutical industry's efforts. "In this
new war against bioterrorism, the mighty industrial power is the pharmaceutical industry."Researchers
say a generation of young scientists never called upon before to defend the nation is working overtime in
a push for rapid progress. At laboratories of the National Institutes of Health, at universities and research
institutes across the land, people are scrambling.But the campaign, for all its urgency, faces hurdles both
scientific and logistical. The kind of research now underway would normally take at least a decade before
products appeared on pharmacy shelves. Scientists are talking about getting at least some new products
out the door within two years, a daunting schedule in medical research. If that happens, it will be with
considerable assistance from the nation's drug companies. They are the only organizations in the country
with the scale to move rapidly to produce pills and vials of medicine that might be needed by the billions.
The companies and their powerful lobby in Washington have been working over the past few weeks to
seize the moment and rehabilitate their reputations, tarnished in recent years by controversy over drug
prices and the lack of access to AIDS drugs among poor countries. The companies have already made
broad commitments to aid the government in the short term, offering free pills with a wholesale value in
excess of $1 billion, as well as other help. The question now is whether that commitment will extend over
the several years it will take to build a national stockpile of next-generation medicines. A good deal of
basic research is already going on at nonprofit institutes that work for the government under contract, and
scientists there say they are newly optimistic about the prospects of commercial help. "The main issue is,
can we get the facilities?" said John Secrist III, vice president for drug discovery and development at
Southern Research Institute in Birmingham, which is looking, under federal grant, for antiviral drugs to
treat smallpox. Given the new mood in the country, he said, "if we come up with a molecule that's going
to be of help, then I have no doubt that we could very rapidly convert that into doses for humans." Many
of the projects that could lead to new drugs and vaccines were underway before Sept. 11, thanks partly to
an extensive commitment NIH made two years ago. Others, like the smallpox project Eli Lilly initiated,
have been started from scratch in recent weeks. Before Sept. 11, NIH had planned to spend $93 million
on next-generation bioterrorism research this budget year. That was nearly double the amount in the prior
year, but now the actual figure is likely to jump by tens of millions. Other parts of the government,
including the Department of Defense, are spending millions as well, often in cooperation with NIH. Much
of the immediate focus is on better defenses for smallpox and anthrax, two bioterror agents theoretically
capable of killing millions. Smallpox was eradicated from the United States in 1949 and from the rest of
the world in 1978. The last remaining stocks of virus are supposedly secure in two repositories in the
United States and Russia. Some terrorist groups are feared to have gotten their hands on virus samples
from Russia, and if that's true, they could set off a worldwide epidemic. Stopping such an outbreak would
require mass vaccinations. The government has a stockpile of old smallpox vaccine, but the supply is
limited. It is, moreover, a primitive product, not substantially different from the vaccine discovered by
English physician Edward Jenner in 1796.
2AC—Always a Risk of Bioterror
Always a risk of bioterrorism—increasing
Cairns 08—Ph.D. in Zoology from the University of Pennsylvania. [“Putting bioterrorism in
perspective,” Bioterrorism and Biological Warfare, 2008, pp 6, accessed from Emory] // AG
The Zero Risk Delusion
The risk of terrorism cannot be reduced to zero. Living on an overcrowded planet with less resources
per capita daily (1.5 million more people added each week) means that terrorism is a reality that
people must learn to live with. Approximately 3 billion people are inadequately nourished, poorly
housed, and have inadequate medical care. The wealth gap between most people and the ultra-rich
has increased markedly in the 21st century and may continue to do so. This situation will probably
produce quite a few terrorists who have had a family member suffer because food, housing, and
medical care were too expensive.
In the United States, especially following the publication of the general public and their political
representatives insisted they be told the “safe” concentration of various chemical substances, especially
pesticides. Investigators could show that exposure under particular test conditions for a specific length of
time for a particular compound would often result in noobservable effects. However, a few individuals of
a species may be more sensitive to a particular compound than the limited number of organisms in the
actual tests. Moreover, conditions outside the laboratory may be different in some areas than the
conditions used in the tests. Using scientifically validated concentrations of chemicals that produced
no-observable effects has dramatically reduced, but not eliminated, risk. The same approach is true
for bioterrorism, and all other types of terrorism, but risk can never be reduced to zero in a
multivariate, dynamic Earth. Just living is a risky activity, but it is far preferable to the alternative.
Tsunamis Add-on
1AC—Tsunamis Adv
MHs trigger tsunami causing landslides
Twitchell et al 09—MS in Education and Zoology from Yale. [“Morphology of late Quaternary
submarine landslides along the U.S. Atlantic continental margin,” David C. Twitchell, Jason D. Chaytorb,
Uri S. ten Brinka, and Brian Buczkowskia, Marine Geology, Volume 264, Issues 1-2, 1 August 2009, pp
4-15, accessed through Emory] // AG
5.3. Triggering mechanisms
The triggering of landslides on the Atlantic margin is commonly attributed to earthquakes (Booth et
al., 1993, Lee, 2009-this issue and ten Brink et al., 2009), but other processes including oversteepening
(Lee, 2009-this issue), dissociation of gas hydrates during periods of lower sealevel (Booth et al.,
1993, Dillon et al., 1993 and Popenoe et al., 1993), and fluid discharge (Robb, 1984, Dugan and
Flemings, 2000 and Person et al., 2003 may have pre-conditioned the material for failure. The mapping
shown here suggests that some processes have had influence on canyon-sourced landslides and others on
open-slope sourced landslides.
Oversteepening of the landslide source areas probably was not a major triggering mechanism for
the landslides on this margin. The sea floor surrounding the source areas of the open-slope sourced
landslides is on average less than 6°; well below the angle of repose. The sea floor surrounding the heads
of the canyon-sourced landslides is steeper, and canyon walls can exceed 20° (Fig. 4). Because of the
steepness of the canyon walls, oversteepening may have contributed to small failures of sediment
supplied to canyon heads during lowstands in sea level. The small size of the gullies and scarps in the
canyon heads (Fig. 8) suggests individual failures were small however.
Dillon et al. (1993), Booth et al. (1993) and Popenoe et al. (1993) have suggested that the decomposition
of gas hydrates during periods of lowered sea level might have contributed to triggering landslides.
Maslin et al. (2004) and Hornbach et al. (2007) point out that gas hydrates are most susceptible to
decomposition in response to lowered sea level if they occur in 200–600 m water depths. Sultan et al.
(2004) suggest that hydrate dissociation in water depths as deep as 1200 m may have triggered the
Storegga slide on the Norwegian margin. Of the two types of landslides we mapped, decomposition of
gas hydrates may have caused some of the canyon head failures, but probably had less effect on the
open-slope sourced landslides because the depths of their source areas are at much greater depths than
those where hydrates are most susceptible to decomposition. Furthermore, geophysical mapping of
bottom simulating reflectors (Tucholke et al., 1977 and Dillon et al., 1986), an indicator of the presence of
gas hydrates, has not identified them under the southern New England or Georges Bank parts of the
margin where landslides have the greatest aerial extent.
Landslide tsunamis worse than earthquake induced tsunamis
Harbitz et al 13—Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, PhD in fluid mechanics, University of Oslo.
[“Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?” Journal of the International Society for
the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Carl B. Hardbitz, Finn Lovholt, and Hilmar Bungum,
14 May 2013.] // AG
Submarine earthquakes constitute the primary tsunami source, but the importance of submarine
landslides as a major contributor to tsunami generation has been more recognized over the last 20–30
years (Hampton et al. 1996; Locat and Lee 2002; Masson et al. 2006; ten Brink 2009; Vanneste et al.
2011a). This is among other factors due to the studies of the tsunami induced by the 8150-year BP
Storegga Slide (Bondevik et al. 2005; Harbitz 1992) and the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami (e.g.
Bardet et al. 2003; Tappin et al. 2008). At the same time, offshore industry explorations and geomarine
surveys such as the Ormen Lange study (Solheim et al. 2005a) have provided better understanding of the
evolution of submarine landslides. This has increased the attention on possible submarine landslide
tsunamis caused also by industrial activities where liability on third party comes into play. Earlier
studies of the 1929 Grand Banks event (Fine et al. 2005; Heezen and Ewing 1952; Piper et al. 1999)
should also be mentioned in this context.
Tsunamis induced by landslides display a great variety. Most landslides that cause tsunamis result in
more local effects than comparable earthquake-induced tsunamis, due to different source characteristics
(Harbitz et al. 2006; Okal and Synolakis 2004). Examples of submarine landslides or slumps that have
caused large run-up heights locally comprise the 1899 Ceram event (12 m, Yudichara pers. comm.
2008, NGDC 2013), the 1929 Grand Banks event (13 m, Fine et al. 2005), the 1992 Flores event (26 m
or 19.6 m averaged from four nearby measurements, Yeh et al. 1993), the 1998 Papua New Guinea event
(>15 m, Tappin et al. 2008), and the 1979 Nice event (3 m, Assier-Rzadkiewicz et al. 2000).
However, enormous submarine landslides exhibiting volumes of several thousands of km3 may
cause tsunamis with more widespread effects (Løvholt et al. 2005; Masson et al. 2006; Vanneste et al.
2011b). Numerical simulations reveal run-up heights up to 8.8 m for the 25–50 ka BP Currituck (165
km3) landslide tsunami (Geist et al. 2009), and >9 m near-shore and 25 m offshore surface elevations
for the 11,500-year BP BIG′95 (26 km3) landslide tsunami (Iglesias et al. 2012; Løvholt et al. 2013).
Numerical simulations and tsunami deposits from the 8150-year BP Storegga Slide (2,400 km3) reveal
regional shoreline water levels of 10–20 m (Bondevik et al. 2005, Harbitz 1992). Similarly, simulations of
the 1,200 km3 Brunei landslide reveal offshore wave heights exceeding 5 m (Okal et al. 2011). Ward
(2001) simulated a series of possible tsunamis revisiting historical events, providing near-shore
amplitudes of 40–60 m for the 5,000 km3 Nuuanu landslide near Hawaii, 30 m for the Storegga landslide
(assuming a volume of 5,500 km3), and 4–7 m waves offshore for the Currituck landslide (labelled
Norfolk Canyon landslide by Ward, 2001).
Volcanic flank collapses plunging into the water may also cause tsunamis inducing distant destruction
(Abadie et al. 2012; Løvholt et al. 2008; Ward and Day 2001), although their tsunamigenic potentials are
disputed (e.g. Gisler et al. 2006; Masson et al. 2006; McGuire 2006; McMurtry et al. 2004; PararasCarayannis 2002; Wynn and Masson 2003). Numerical simulations of the ca. 127 ka BP Alika giant
submarine landslide and corresponding tsunami deposits at Lanai Island (corrected for sea island
subsidence) indicate regional run-up heights exceeding 2–300 m (McMurtry et al. 2004). At Gran
Canaria in the Canary Islands, tsunami deposits are observed up to 188 m above present sea level,
probably following a 830 ka BP lateral collapse at neighbouring Tenerife Island (McGuire 2006). To the
authors’ knowledge, there are no examples of volcano collapse of lava domes, flank failures, pyroclastic
flows, lahars, or debris flows that have caused severe tsunamis of regional impact in historical times
(eruptive volcano tsunamis excluded here). Nevertheless, due to their potential catastrophic impact, these
types of massive events have received considerable attention, albeit being rare. However, several local
volcano flank collapse tsunami events with reported run-up heights up to 15 m are observed (some with
significant loss of lives), for example, in the Caribbean (Harbitz et al. 2012 and references therein), 2002
Stromboli Island (Italy; Tinti et al. 2005), as well as 1640 Komaga-Take, 1741 Oshima-Oshima, and 1792
Shimabara Bay (Mount Unzen, Japan; Inoue 1999), 1871 Ruang and 1979 Iliwerung (Indonesia), and
1888 Ritter Island (Papua New Guinea; McGuire 2006 and references therein). The 1888 Ritter Island
event of approximately 5 km3 is the largest historical lateral volcano collapse.
In spite of low probabilities, submarine landslides may cause larger tsunami inundation compared
to earthquake-induced tsunamis as demonstrated above . This may be important for location and
design of critical infrastructure that are often based on very long return periods (thousands of years)
that may be weakly justified (P. J. Lynett pers. comm. 2012).
Energy from a tsunami is like an atomic bomb—total destruction
Chang 11—Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois. [“The Destructive Power of Water,”
NYTimes, Kenneth Chang, 12 March 2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/weekinreview/13water.html?_r=0]
And when water is moving at 30 or 40 miles an hour, like the tsunami that inundated northern
Japan on Friday, the heaviness of water turns deadly. Imagine 1,700 pounds hitting you at that
speed, and each cubic yard of water as another 1,700 pounds bearing down on you. The
destructiveness of a tsunami is not just one runaway car, but a fleet of them.
“That’s exactly the analogy to use,” said Philip N. Froelich, a professor of oceanography at Florida State
University. “And by the time you’re talking about a wall of water that’s 10 meters high, if that wave
is two miles long into the ocean, it’s basically like a hundred tanks coming across you. Even though
it’s a fluid, it operates like a solid hammer.”
Water does not act quite the same way as speeding cars. As a fluid, it can slip around some objects like
round columns, while slamming full force when a large wall is in its way. It also gathers debris — dirt,
cars, trees — as it flows. Those added projectiles can create more destruction as they crash into
other objects. Even if the wave only comes up to the knees, the force is enough to knock a person
down.
The power of a tsunami comes from straightforward physics. An earthquake suddenly pushes part of the
sea floor up or down. That changes the height of the water above it — what physicists call potential
energy — and the potential energy quickly changes into the kinetic energy of the tsunami waves.
In a rough guess, Harry Yeh, a professor of ocean engineering at Oregon State University, said that the
earthquake on Friday pushed a section of sea floor 250 miles long and 50 miles down by an average of
one yard. That resulted in billions of cubic yards of water — trillions of pounds — suddenly shifting
position.
That energy going into the tsunami, according to Professor Yeh’s estimate, was a bit less than that of
an exploding atomic bomb.
In addition to the damage that a tsunami can inflict along coastlines in particular countries, it can
also have an effect on the entire earth. The planet’s oceans are very heavy, applying enormous
pressure to the ocean crust. When the distribution of that pressure is shifted, as it is during an
earthquake, it can induce wobbles in the earth’s rotation.
Mapping MH solves
Hünerbach 04—Partner at the Continental Slope Stability project. [“Landslides in the North Altantic
and its adjacent seas: an analysis of their morphology, setting and behavior,” Marine Geology, Volume
213, Issues 1-4, December 2004, pp 343-362, accessed through Emory] // AG
The involvement of trigger mechanisms has been mostly excluded in this discussion because there was no
clear picture of any dominating mechanism in the data set. Possible trigger mechanisms which are, or
thought to be, most common, include earthquakes, gas hydrates, tectonic movement, solifluction,
internal waves, sediment overload, erosion, sea-level change, ground-/freshwater seepage and, especially
in fjords, human impact.
It is clear from our study that a much more meaningful analysis could have been performed if more
modern high-resolution mapping data had been available. Collecting high-resolution sidescan,
multibeam and seismic data to get a complete picture of a submarine landslide and its surrounding
environment, dimensions, surface and subsurface expression is a necessity; not only for statistical
analysis, but also to give more insight in the processes involved in landsliding. Geotechnical data
from boreholes and samples is likely to hold the key to understanding landslide processes, but is
rarely available. This is sometimes both technically difficult and expensive to obtain, although some
such data exist already, particularly in industry, which needs to be encouraged to release it to the
academic community. Initiatives like COSTA are a good opportunity to bring industry and scientists
together and try to reach these aims.
2AC—Tsunami Impact
Tsunamis cause total destruction
Pendick 04—M.A., History of Science and Medicine from the University of Wisconsin. [“A Deadly
Force,” Daniel Pendick, PBS, 26 December 2004, http://www.pbs.org/wnet/savageearth/tsunami/] // AG
On the open ocean, tsunami waves approach speeds of 500 mph, almost fast enough to keep pace
with a jetliner. But gazing out the window of a 747, you wouldn't be able to pick it out from the winddriven swells. In deep water, the waves spread out and hunch down, with hundreds of miles between
crests that may be just a few feet high. A passenger on a passing ship would scarcely detect their
passing. But in fact the tsunami crest is just the very tip of a vast mass of water in motion. Though winddriven waves and swells are confined to a shallow layer near the ocean surface, a tsunami extends
thousands of feet deep into the ocean.
Because the momentum of the waves is so great, a tsunami can travel great distances with little loss of
energy. The 1960 earthquake off the coast of Chile generated a tsunami that had enough force to kill 150
people in Japan after a journey of 22 hours and 10,000 miles. The waves from a trans-Pacific tsunami can
reverberate back and forth across the ocean for days, making it jiggle like a planetary-scale pan of Jell-O.
As the waves in the tsunami reach shore, they slow down due to the shallowing sea floor, and the
loss in speed is often accompanied by a dramatic increase in wave height. The waves scrunch
together like the ribs of an accordion and heave upward. Depending on the geometry of the seafloor
warping that first generated the waves, tsunami attacks can take different forms. In certain cases, the sea
can seem at first to draw a breath and empty harbors, leaving fish flopping on the mud. This sometimes
draws the curious to the shoreline and to their deaths, since the withdrawing of the sea is inevitably
followed by the arrival of the crest of a tsunami wave. Tsunamis also flood in suddenly without
warning. Tsunami waves usually don't curve over and break, like Hawaiian surf waves. Survivors of
tsunami attacks describe them as dark "walls" of water. Impelled by the mass of water behind them, the
waves bulldoze onto the shore and inundate the coast, snapping trees like twigs, toppling stone walls and
lighthouses, and smashing houses and buildings into kindling.
The contours of the seafloor and coastline have a profound influence on the height of the waves -sometimes with surprising and dangerous results. During the 1993 tsunami attack on Okushiri, Japan,
the wave "runup" on the coast averaged about 15 to 20 meters (50 - 65 feet). But in one particular spot,
the waves pushed into a V-shaped valley open to the sea, concentrating the water in a tighter and
tighter space. In the end, the water ran up to 32 meters (90 feet) above sea level, about the height of
an 8-story office building.
2AC—Atlantic Coast Key
Tsunamis on the Atlantic coast affect millions
Hornbach et al 07—Professor and researcher at the institute for geophysics at the University of
Texas. [ “Triggering mechanism and tsunamogenic potential of the Cape Fear Slide complex, U.S.
Atlantic margin,” Matthew J. Hornbach, Luc L. Lavier, and Carolyn D. Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,
Volume 8, Number 12, 28 December 2007] // AG
[4] The rapid displacement of large volumes of material during some submarine slide events can
also lead to tsunami generation. For most of the North American Atlantic margin, though, no
thorough assessment of the tsunamogenic potential of past or possible future slide events has been
undertaken. With the rapid increase in worldwide coastal populations over the past 50 years,
developing an understanding of tsunami generation by offshore submarine slides has significant
societal relevance.
2AC—BioD Impact
Tsunamis wreck biodiversity
Arya et al 06—Ministry of Home Affairs of India, Professor Emeritus, Dept. of Eq. Engineering, IIT
Roorkee. [“Some aspects of tsunami impact and recovery in India,” Anand S. Arya and E.V. Muely,
Disaster Prevention and Management, Volume 15, Number 1, 2006, pp 51-66, accessed through Emory]
// AG
2.8 Impact on coastal and marine environment
Studies on rapid assessment of the impact of tsunami on the coastal and marine environment
including the bio-diversity in Andaman and Nicobar Islands as well as areas in Tamil Nadu indicate
varying degrees of damage. Many of these islands have gone through submergence of coastal flat lands
with massive ingress of the saline water and change of coastlines leading to changes in the terrestrial
and marine environment. The Pulomilo Island that was once connected with Little Nicobar has been
completely submerged except for a small hill top whereas the western coasts of Great and Little Nicobars
have been partially submerged Similarly, the Central Nicobar Islands of Trinket and Katchal have split
with wide cracks, resulting into complete transformation of topography and contour of island coastline.
Studies also reveal massive loss of human life in all the tsunami affected areas besides destruction of
coastal settlements and infrastructure, loss of fishing boats and facilities as well as degradation of
agricultural lands and forests besides salinization and contamination of water resources.
Observations on the damages caused to the ecosystems show increased levels of turbidity, reduction in
water transparency leading to loss of primary productivity, uprooting and devastation of corals, loss
of habitat and breeding cycles and loss of places of various species of flora and fauna or ecological
and economic significance as well as fish and fisheries in the region. It has also been reported that
Mangroves in Pichavaram and Muthupet in Tamil Nadu have resisted devastating impact of tsunami by
absorbing the wave energy resulting into reduction of losses to lives as well as properties in their vicinity.
2AC—MH Triggers Landslides
MHs can trigger landslides in the U.S. Atlantic ocean
Chaytor et al 09—Department of Geology and Geophysics at the Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution, Ph.D in Geological Oceanography at Oregon State. [“Size distribution of submarine landslides
along the U.S. Atlantic margin,” Jason D. Chaytor, Uri S. ten Brink, Andrew R. Solowc, and Brian D.
Andrews, Marine Geology, Volume 264, 2009, pp 23, accessed through Emory.] // AG
The differences in distributions of landslides along the U.S. Atlantic margin when compared to
other regions mentioned above (i.e., log– normal vs. inverse power law) may reflect observational
limitations or error, it may be due to a more fundamental characteristic of the study area, such as
geologic control on the landslides, or it may be related to a dynamic feature of the landslide processes
that controls their size. For example, in many regions, the variation of geomorphic, lithologic, or
structural characteristics can be a critical factor in controlling the differences in the rate and magnitude of
landscape modification by slope failure (Burbank and Anderson, 2001). The region under study here
encompasses a very large geographic area, with variations in geology (e.g., Quaternary glacial and
non-glacial fluvial deposits), seafloor slope, and potential local triggering mechanisms such as: 1) salt
diapirism south of Cape Hatteras (Dillon et al., 1982); 2) water discharge movement along the slope off
New Jersey (Robb, 1984); 3) sediment thickness and composition changes (e.g., Pratson and Laine,
1989); and 4) hydrate destabilization (Carpenter, 1981) which may provide some control on the size
of landslides and hence their distribution.
MH melting increases risks of landslides
Harbitz et al 13—Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, PhD in fluid mechanics, University of Oslo.
[“Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?” Journal of the International Society for
the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Carl B. Hardbitz, Finn Lovholt, and Hilmar Bungum,
14 May 2013.] // AG
It has been proposed that global warming followed by increased seismicity around the edge of the
present-day ice sheets (in particular Greenland) will trigger slope instability, thereby influencing the
landslide tsunami threat (Berndt et al. 2009). In addition, ocean warming may lead to hydrate melting
and reduced slope stability. Other predictions resulting from increased global temperatures include
increased storminess and changes to the seasonality of rainfall as well as rises in global sea level (BGS
2009).
MHs destabilize seafloor in the North Atlantic
Hünerbach 04—Partner at the Continental Slope Stability project. [“Landslides in the North Altantic
and its adjacent seas: an analysis of their morphology, setting and behavior,” Marine Geology, Volume
213, Issues 1-4, December 2004, pp 343-362, accessed through Emory] // AG
On both sides of the North Atlantic, a large number of landslides initiate in water depths of 1000–1300
m (Fig. 3 and Fig. 4). This observation, first noticed in the western North Atlantic by Booth et al. (1993),
is unexpected, because this depth range does not correspond to the steepest part of the slope nor is it
related to any obvious sedimentological or depositional parameter (e.g., maximum sedimentation rate).
Information about the structure of the failed layers, their sedimentology, and their geotechnical
properties might give further insight into the mechanisms involved, but without these more detailed
observations, it remains unclear why so many failures happen at these water depths. Gas hydrates and
possible hydrate instability (Mienert et al., 2002) and/or internal waves (Cacchione and Pratson, 2004
and Cacchione et al., 2002) could play an important role in destabilising sediments at these water
depths, but again much more data is required to prove their involvement.
MH pressure will cause tsunamis on the Atlantic coast
Hornbach et al 07—Professor and researcher at the institute for geophysics at the University of
Texas. [ “Triggering mechanism and tsunamogenic potential of the Cape Fear Slide complex, U.S.
Atlantic margin,” Matthew J. Hornbach, Luc L. Lavier, and Carolyn D. Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,
Volume 8, Number 12, 28 December 2007] // AG
[1] Analysis of new multibeam bathymetry data and seismic Chirp data acquired over the Cape
Fear Slide complex on the U.S. Atlantic margin suggests that at least 5 major submarine slides have
likely occurred there within the past 30,000 years, indicating that repetitive, large-scale mass wasting
and associated tsunamis may be more common in this area than previously believed. Gas hydrate
deposits and associated free gas as well as salt tectonics have been implicated in previous studies as
triggers for the major Cape Fear slide events. Analysis of the interaction of the gas hydrate phase
boundary and the various generations of slides indicates that only the most landward slide likely
intersected the phase boundary and inferred high gas pressures below it. For much of the region, we
believe that displacement along a newly recognized normal fault led to upward migration of salt,
oversteepening of slopes, and repeated slope failures. Using new constraints on slide morphology, we
develop the first tsunami model for the Cape Fear Slide complex. Our results indicate that if the
most seaward Cape Fear slide event occurred today, it could produce waves in excess of 2 m at the
present-day 100 m bathymetric contour.
Gas hydrates cause sediment instability causing environmental and economic losses
Hovland & Gudmestad 01—Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of
Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [“Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabead
installations,” Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 309-310] // AG
Sediment instability can be caused by gas hydrates dissociating from lower layers, resulting in
decreased sediment strength. A similar phenomenon is experienced in permafrost regions onshore in
association with the heating of permafrost. Dissociation of gas hydrates can be caused by temperature
increases or pressure fluctuations. Of particular concern is the potential reduction in sediment
strength of sloping sediments, which could trigger underwater slides and movement of large
sediment volumes.
Near a deep-water Gulf of Mexico construction site Prior and Hooper (1999) investigated signs of
sediment instability. Their case study demonstrates the effort needed to assess and secure a potentially
dangerous geohazard associated with gas and gas hydrates: "A deep water oil and gas production Tension
Leg Platform (TLP) system has been successfully installed in 872 m water depth, in an area where there
has been a history of point-source repetitive debris flows (Prior and Doyle, 1993). Detailed mapping
using deep tow survey techniques revealed that two large fluid expulsion mounds and craters are the
sources of debris flows, with chutes and shear-bounded channels leading downslope to a sequence of
stacked debris lobes. Analysis of lobe geometries and sediment properties revealed episodes of repeated
debris flows that began on slopes of 10° to 15°, and were associated with periodic venting of large
volumes of overpressured gas, with debris runout distances of up to 11 km. Development of the TLP site
model, particularly using sediment properties and agedating, yielded the following information:
- the site is 1,800 m downslope from the most recent flows;
-the most recent flows occurred within the last 1,000 years but are low magnitude, very thin flows not
exceeding 5 m thick;
-there are indications of about 4 events in the past 12,000 years;
-a deeply buried flow dates from about 25 to 30,000 years BP; and
-older more deeply bedded flows are of Pleistocene age, greater than 30,000 years.
From an engineering perspective, it is evident that the site has not experienced debris flow activity for at
least 12,000 years because all the later debris flows stopped short of the site by at least 1,800 m.
Furthermore, if debris flows recur, the overall frequency pattern suggests the TLP will not be affected
during its lifetime. Also, the general trend in reduction of debris flow magnitude (thickness and runout
distance) with time suggests that the maximum flow thickness that could affect the site would be 4 to 5 m.
There are geotechnical data for the flow deposits to provide a conservative approach to foundation
design." (Prior and Hooper, 1999, p. 434-435).
The consequences of gas hydrate associated sediment instability to engineering structures would of
course be very damaging. The potentially most disruptive engineering structures are considered to
be those carrying warm fluids, like wells with hydrocarbons and hot pipelines. An extensive
evaluation of the sea floor stability should precede any sea floor installation operation in order to
prevent any unwanted instability development. The consequences could be both serious
environmental damage by hydrocarbon release through free flowing wells, or by sea floor slumping
and total loss of engineering structures. Thus, the economic consequences associated with losses
and environmental damage must be considered as well. Often, it is only when such an economic
consequence assessment has been performed that the magnitude of an unwanted event is properly
understood and action is taken to investigate the true natural conditions.
Drilling disrupts sediment layers and can release methane hydrates
Hovland & Gudmestad 01—Professor emeritus at the University of Bergen, and Professor of
Marine technology at the University of Stavanger. [“Potential influences of gas hydrates on seabead
installations,” Natural gas hydrates: occurrence, distribution, and detection (2001), pp 310] // AG
Drilling into the sea bottom represents a considerable disturbance of the upper sediment layers.
Gas hydrates in the sediment could dissociate releasing gas during drilling (Fig. 3). Free gas
released during drilling may form gas hydrates elsewhere. If for example gas hydrates form around
the wellhead and BOP, it could cause the mechanical systems to fail, even at low rates of formation
(Fig. 5). Larger gas releases could have consequences for the stability of the drilling rig, possibly
causing it to lose buoyancy, and which would seriously affect the safety of the rig and its crew.
Alternatively, the forces from the gas plume could represent a skew load causing the rig to heel (Hovland
and Judd, 1988).
The greatest drilling concern, however, is associated with the production of warm hydrocarbons (up
to over 100°C) through a casing, heating the surrounding formations. Examples of casing collapse due
to excess local pressure caused by dissociating in-situ gas hydrates is known to have occurred (Fig.
4). Although insulation of the casing may be attempted, it is doubted whether the present state of
knowledge and technology guarantees sufficient measures of safe operations. Another aspect of concern
is the possibility of introducing gas hydrates in the drilling mud with possible loss of drilling mud control
and free gas development as the hydrates dissociate.
If there is the slightest probability that wells could be severed due to sediment movement, subsea safety
barriers must be installed to avoid free-flowing wells.
2AC—Landslide Tsunamis = Worst
Landslide tsunamis amplify damage
Harbitz et al 13—Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, PhD in fluid mechanics, University of Oslo.
[“Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?” Journal of the International Society for
the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Carl B. Hardbitz, Finn Lovholt, and Hilmar Bungum,
14 May 2013.] // AG
Tsunamis are in general extreme not only because they are high and not anticipated. In fact, they
do not need to be particularly high to cause considerable damage as for instance seen from currentinduced damages in harbours following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (Okal et al. 2006a). Owing to
the very long wavelength of tsunamis, the propagation mimics that of a tidal wave or a storm surge
around islands or shallows, through narrow straits or bends, and into harbours. In this way they
inundate otherwise sheltered areas without being reduced by energy dissipation caused by wave
breaking, reflection, etc., to the same extent as wind waves or swells. At the same time the wave period
of a tsunami is shorter than for a tidal wave and a storm surge. Hence, the tsunami will climb the land
faster and cause significantly stronger currents and fluxes than these other kinds of very long waves
(even of the same height). Landslide tsunamis in particular are most often shorter than earthquake
tsunamis, which favour amplification.
Only landslide induced tsunamis will destroy US coast
Harbitz et al 13—Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, PhD in fluid mechanics, University of Oslo.
[“Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?” Journal of the International Society for
the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Carl B. Hardbitz, Finn Lovholt, and Hilmar Bungum,
14 May 2013.] // AG
Submarine investigations have revealed a number of past landslides offshore the eastern US and
Canadian coastlines (Chaytor et al. 2009; Hühnerbach et al. 2004; McAdoo et al. 2000; Piper and McCall
2003; Twichell et al. 2009; Urgeles et al. 2002). The most well-known event here is the 1929 Grand
Banks earthquake and landslide that generated a tsunami of regional impact (Fine et al. 2005; Heezen and
Ewing 1952; Piper et al. 1999). This M 7.2 earthquake is moreover important since it occurred in a socalled stable continental region. Chaytor et al. (2009) showed that the cumulative volume distribution
of the failure scars along the US Atlantic margin is well described by a lognormal distribution.
Modelling of the possible tsunami from one of the largest of the ancient events, the 165 km3
Currituck landslide (Locat et al. 2009), reveals a potential for a devastating tsunami impact (Geist et
al. 2009). A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (see below) for landslide tsunamis based on
slope stability parameters by Grilli et al. (2009) suggested a potential for moderately large run-up of
3–4 m offshore New York and New Jersey for a 500-year return period. It is worth noting that many of
these landslides are located in areas of relatively low seismicity. In the review of Lee (2009), the onset
of major landslides on the Atlantic Ocean Margin is heavily linked to glacial cycles in a similar fashion as
for the landslides offshore Norway (Solheim et al. 2005b). Glacial transport of sediments was found to be
the only mechanism capable of providing sufficient volumes and sufficiently high sedimentation rates
to form overpressure zones crucial for landslide release and subsequent evolution. Time effects such
as consolidation and pore pressure dissipation may reduce the tsunami hazard (and timing in relation to
the glacial cycle must be accounted for also here). Other geological processes like sediment deposits from
rivers, etc., also contribute, but not to a similar extent.
2AC—Mapping K2 Prevent Landslides
Mapping key to preventing landslides
Harbitz et al 13—Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, PhD in fluid mechanics, University of Oslo.
[“Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?” Journal of the International Society for
the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Carl B. Hardbitz, Finn Lovholt, and Hilmar Bungum,
14 May 2013.] // AG
6.2 Future needs, research, and prospects
In most continental margins, a more complete mapping of landslide sources would certainly improve
assessment of landslide tsunamigenic potential. For the past events, mechanical analyses of the release,
disintegration, and flow mechanisms will help in understanding landslide dynamics. Laboratory-scale
experiments and the pertinent discussions on how they relate to corresponding natural phenomena are
particularly important for submarine landslides that are difficult to observe at full scale (e.g. Breien et al.
2010; Elverhøi et al. 2010). Further, better dating would improve assessment of recurrence and relation to
climatic or glacial cycles. Tsunami source statistics as shown in Fig. 6 elaborated in more detail for
the various regions would also be helpful in landslide tsunami hazard assessment.
Solvency
***Plan Solves***
2AC—Mapping Feasible
Deeptowed marine DC can map MHs
Goto et al 08—Associate Professor in the Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, PhD
in Engineering from Kyoto University. [“A marine deep-towed DC resistivity survey in a methane
hydrate area, Japan Sea,” Exploration Geophysics, Volume 39, 2008, pp 53-54, Csiro Publishing,
accessed from Emory] // AG
Introduction
Methane hydrates (MHs) are naturally occurring solids consisting of methane and water at low
temperature and high pressure. MH is mainly found in permafrost in polar regions, and in sedimentary
layers along continental margins. A large amount of methane gas may be contained in the MH layer,
so that MH is expected to be a new energy resource (e.g. Kvenvolden, 1993). On the other hand, MH
will have a significant impact on global warming, because methane is one of the greenhouse gases.
Seismic reflectors approximately parallel to the seafloor are often identified below continental
margins, and are often used to detect MH. They are called bottom simulating reflectors (BSRs).
Since the polarity of the wavelet reflected from BSRs is opposite from that of seafloor reflections, BSRs
are interpreted as a phase boundary between solid hydrate and free gas below the MH zone (Shipley et al.,
1979). However, there are generally no clear seismic reflectors at the top boundary of the MH zone,
and the upper bound of the MH zone has not been resolved well. In some cases, the existence of
much gas hydrate has been inferred where no BSR was found (Paull et al., 2000).
In this paper, we introduce a new geophysical tool, sensitive to MH layers: a marine DC resistivity
survey system. As summarised in Goldberg et al. (2000), the resistivity of a formation including massive
MH may be as high as several tens of .m, whereas sediments without MH typically have a resistivity
of∼1.m. Thus, a resistivity survey has potential for imaging the MH zone. Recently, marine DC
resistivity surveys have been carried out in shallow water areas (Lile et al., 1994; Inoue, 2005; Kwon et
al., 2005; Allen and Merrick, 2007). For example, Kwon et al. (2005) conducted a DC resistivity survey
with a floating cable and detected fault zones below a river bed. These recent studies show how
effectively a marine DC resistivity survey can produce images of sub-seafloor structures. However,
its applications to deep sea surveying have been rare. Von Herzen et al. (1996) carried out a pioneering
DC resistivity survey on a hydrothermal mound by using a submersible, and estimated the resistivity of
sulphides at shallow depths (<10 m). The water depth was ∼3600 m.
Controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) soundings have been applied to detect MH zones below
the deep seafloor. Yuan and Edwards (2000) used a deep-towed CSEM source and two towed receivers,
and found a relatively high resistivity layer related to MHs. Due to the limited number of their receivers,
spatial and depth resolutions were quite limited in their study. Weitemeyer et al. (2006) used a deeptowed CSEM source and ocean-bottom receivers, and indicated lateral resistivity variation across a
hydrate ridge. However, the horizontal resolution near the seafloor was limited because number of
ocean-bottom receivers was limited. Therefore, we have adopted a deeptowed marine DC resistivity
method, with multiple electrodes but without ocean-bottom receivers, for detecting MH zones. In
this study, we first use numerical calculations to demonstrate how effectively a marine DC resistivity
method images the top surface ofMHlayer. Then, we introduce a field test of our marine DC resistivity
survey system.
EM can detected hydrates where BSR can’t
Weitemeyer 08—Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San
Diego. [“Marine Electromagnetic Methods for Gas Hydrate Characterization,” Weitemeyer, Karen A,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 11/24/2008, pp 8-9] // AG
Traditionally, seismic methods are used to detect hydrate; a bottom simulating reflector (BSR)
typically marks the phase change of solid hydrate above and free gas below the BSR (Shipley et al.,
1979). The BSR runs parallel to the seafloor and often cross-cuts sedimentary structures. The depth to the
BSR, and hence the thickness of the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), is controlled by the intersection
of the hydrate stability field with the local geothermal gradient. However, the BSR may not guarantee
hydrate, as was observed on DSDP Leg 84 site 496 and site 596, where no hydrate was recovered and
the presence of free gas created the BSR (Sloan, 1990 p. 424; Sloan and Koh, 2008 p. 575 ). Other
types of seismic signatures have been noted at the Blake Ridge by Hornback et al. (2003) and Gorman et
al. (2002), such as a fossil BSR, seismic blanking, and seismic bright spots. Unfortunately, the lack of
any seismic signature does not rule out the existence of hydrate. For instance, hydrates have been
known to occur in the Gulf of Mexico without a seismic BSR (Sloan, 1990). There are also cases when
the sedimentary layering is parallel to the seafloor, creating ambiguity between a seismic BSR and a
sedimentary reflection. While seismic methods are often able to detect the lower stratigraphic bound of
hydrate, the diffuse upper bound is not well imaged and there is often no seismic reflectivity signature
from within the hydrate region.
Other methods for hydrate detection include electrical resistivity measurements made during well
logging, which indicate that regions containing hydrate are more resistive compared to water saturated
zones (e.g. Collett and Ladd, 2000). Although this effect can be modest (e.g. ODP Leg 204 had resistivity
well logs with a resistivity of 2.5 m for sediments containing hydrate and 1 m for background sediments
(Shipboad Scientific Party, 2003d)), it provides a suitable electromagnetic (EM) target for the detection of
hydrates, since the EM response increases with an increase in hydrate volume fraction.
Well logging requires the presence of a well to provide only a point measurement of the hydrate
distribution at a particular location. Multiple drilling is required to gain a regional scale distribution for
hydrate, and even then there may be little correlation between wells. Drilling is expensive and also
disturbs hydrate (Paull and Ussler, 2001) and so a technique to provide bulk in situ assessment of gas
hydrate content is needed. Marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) methods are noninvasive techniques and can evaluate the bulk properties of hydrate over a much larger volume
than well logging.
2AC—Now K2 Solve
Methane hydrate projects now
Wallman 13, K.J. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMOS21D..01W
Vast amounts of natural gas are stored in marine gas hydrates deposited at continental margins. The global inventory of carbon bound as methane
in gas hydrates is currently estimated as 1000 × 500 Gt. Large-scale
national research projects located mostly in South-East
Asia but also in North America and Europe are aiming to exploit these ice-like solids as new
unconventional resource of natural gas. Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries are taking the lead
because their national waters harbor exploitable gas hydrate deposits which could be developed to
reduce the dependency of these nations on costly LGN imports. In 2013, the first successful production
test was performed off Japan at water depths of ca. 1000 m demonstrating that natural gas can be released and
produced from marine hydrates by lowering the pressure in the sub-seabed hydrate reservoirs. In an alternative approach, CO2 from coal power
plans and other industrial sources is used to release natural gas (methane) from hydrates while CO2 is bound and stored in the sub-surface as solid
hydrate. These new approaches and technologies are still in an early pre-commercial phase; the costs of field development and gas production
exceed the value of natural gas being produced from the slowly dissociating hydrates. However, new
technologies are currently
under development in the German SUGAR project and elsewhere to reduce costs and enhance gas production
rates such that gas hydrates may become commercially exploitable over the coming decade(s). The exploitation of
marine gas hydrates may help to reduce CO2 emissions from the fossil fuel sector if the produced
natural gas is used to replace coal and/or LNG. Hydrate development could also provide important
incentives for carbon capture technologies since CO2 can be used to produce natural gas from
hydrates. However, leakage of gas may occur during the production process while slope failure may be induced by the accompanying
dissociation/conversion of gas hydrates. Methane gas leaking into the marine environment is rapidly oxidized by microbes such that only a
very small fraction of the methane emitted at the seabed escapes into the atmosphere. Slope failure is a
more serious thread. It may lead to a complete destruction of seabed infrastructures for gas
production and transport, significant gas emissions, and damage to local benthic ecosystems. New
regulations should be developed at the national and international level to address and minimize the
specific environmental risks associated with the future commercial exploitation of marine gas
hydrates.
2AC—Drilling Tech Safe
Better tech means we don’t cause any bad things
STEWART 11—D., 2011. [Well engineering concepts to make methane gas hydrate exploitation
affordable.] http://openair.rgu.ac.uk
However, if
we consider the worldwide estimate of methane in methane hydrates as being 700,000 Tcf
current conventionally recoverable methane 8,800 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf). Even if 1% of gasin-place in hydrates is recoverable it is equal to 2,000 Tcf.
against
Whilst the global hydrate
deposits are plentiful, and the volume of methane gas associated with them is
massive, the drilling and well logging projects conducted so far has identified that the hydrates are deposited in vastly different environments
of depositions and in different accumulations. Technical and economic viability with these environments of deposition will be determined by
reservoirs with suitable rock and petrophysical properties e.g. porosity, saturation, permeability derived from log analysis and laboratory analysis,
combined with flow rate sustainability, ultimate recovery factors, reservoir volumetrics and proven techniques for extraction of the methane gas
to market. Subsea wells have a traditional arrangement of wellhead, xmas tree and manifold, the tree and manifold also have attached the controls
module and any instrumentation termination from pressure, temperature, and flow instrumentation within the surface or subsurface equipment.
The complexity of the subsea architecture has continued to increase and, with it, the weight and size of the respective components. Some
anecdotal evidence in circa 1980 in the North Sea dual bore subsea trees weighed a little over 14 tonnes. Today in deepwater they are installing
subsea trees that weigh almost 50 tonnes and have the same or similar pressure and temperature ratings as those installed in the 1980’s. This
weight increase brings with it a huge cost increase and a deepwater tree is currently costing circa $5 million per unit. Reviewing this brought the
realisation that the subsea architecture, tree wellhead and manifold have evolved from land systems and have steadily increased in complexity
and cost and need radical change in methane gas hydrate exploitation. The subsea hydrate architecture invented (patent application 0908018.5)
will remove the need for any subsea tree system totally, whilst at the same time provide improvements in 105 environmental and personal safety.
The system has additional design features in that it isolates the well from flow for intervention operations, provides a collection point or gas
escape around the wellhead (residual risk as methane gas is dissociated from the hydrate and near bore stability is affected), allows variable
setting of the wellhead position to aid top-hole drilling and minimise directional variation in the unconsolidated top hole section, integrates in
modular fashion services, and ancillary systems, that will allow removal of water and sand from the well bore effluent and provide functionality
to pump this effluent to disposal wells within the hydrate system.
The hydrate exploitation design proposed will be a simple seabed mounted system. It will be
capable of being deployed in a water depth ranging from 500m to 1500m, depending upon site location and
topography. The slim hole system is chosen as it will offer a simpler and, hence, more cost effective
means of deploying the system from a floating hoist – vessel of opportunity smaller than a more expensive semi submersible
drilling rig. The device is original in that it deviates from standard oil and gas well engineering and subsea apparatus. The research also helped
derive the concept of the use of a so called “Vessel of Opportunity” in deepwater hydrate operations. The
use of a conventional
drillship type vessel would never be economic, so an alternative had to be designed. The driver, as in
all development of safely exploitable hydrocarbon resource, will remain financially rewarding. This is
namely value derived from investment committed. These methane gas hydrates are deemed important as a future
energy resource, and Nations are looking at this resource as a means to provide methane gas to
contribute to their demands for energy consumption. 106 To date, the world has not been able to bring
this energy resource to market because the understanding of the volumes and cost of exploitation
exceeds the gas price achievable. Until this cost for exploitation can be substantially reduced, gas
hydrates will remain dormant as a world energy resource, and continue to be regarded as a safety hazard for conventional drilling
hazards or an environmental hazard for global warming.
Nations of the world such as the United States of America, Japan, Canada, The European Union (on behalf of member states), Korea and India
are investing heavily in research and development to gain a better understanding of the gas hydrate energy source.
It is concluded that the
ongoing scientific research will provide the enhanced understanding of the
geology, petrophysics and geosciences but only with the application of new innovative well
technology and techniques that radically reduces the cost of development for methane hydrate
exploitation, will it be possible to bring this important energy source to market.
2AC—Exploration K2 MH Development
Exploration key to development of MH
Boswell 07—PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [“Resource potential of methane
hydrate coming into focus,” Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, Volume 56, 2007, pp 11-12]
// AG
9. Summary
Through a half-decade of laboratory and field work, we learned much more about methane hydrate, both
as a physical substance, and as a constituent of the natural environment. We are now confident that
production at potentially viable rates is technically feasible under certain conditions. However, the
remaining challenges are significant. We still do not know the scale of the potentially recoverable
share of the in-place resource, particularly in the marine setting. We still do not have proven means
of remotely detecting and appraising marine accumulations. And there is much testing and refining to be
done on the technologies that will be used to produce hydrate. Nonetheless, the work accomplished under
the first 5 years of the MHR&D act left us well positioned to efficiently address these challenges. The
new appreciation for the complexities of natural hydrates is a key step in moving to a more
complete understanding that incorporates standard industry concepts such as petroleum systems,
prospects, and recoverable resources. Given the success with other resources once considered to be
“pie-in-the-sky” or unrecoverable, the prospects for hydrate recovery are clearly worth pursuing.
For methane hydrate to fulfill its potential as a paradigm-shifting future energy source, it will be
necessary to access hydrate in the marine environment. No one doubts that the conversion of marine
methane hydrate into a viable resource will pose serious technical challenges. Therefore, hydrate R&D is
likely to progress along two paths. Research on the demonstration of technologies for hydrate prospect
delineation, drilling, and production should continue to focus on the more accessible Arctic
accumulations. A variety of production well tests across a broad spectrum of geologic settings is needed.
At the same time, research in the marine environment should focus on development of exploration
technologies and the initiation of an extensive exploratory well drilling campaign designed to
ground truth exploration technologies and determine the scale of the potentially produceable
marine hydrate resources. Later, maturing hydrate production technologies developed in the Arctic can
be translated and modified for the sandstone reservoirs in the marine environment. Looking further,
fundamental engineering and scientific breakthroughs will be required to access the broader,
dispersed, and low-concentration marine deposits encased in fine-grained sediments.
2AC—AUVs Can Map
Multiple AUVs provide the best prospects for widespread exploration
Manley 4 [Justin E. – NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. Manley has been working with marine
technology since 1990. He was a principal in the development of unmanned marine vehicles at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1993 to 2002. Between 2002 and 2009 Mr. Manley provided
marine technology consulting services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group;
“Multiple AUV Missions in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration”, 2004 IEEElOES
Autonomous Underwater Vehicles \\NL]
D. Ocean Exploration and Research
One of the most challenging missions in NOAA is Ocean exploration and research. With 95% of the
ocean unexplored there is a tremendous body of work awaiting completion. Also, the areas of
interest are frequently deep and far from shore. Given the high costs to operate submersibles or
deepwater ROVs the prospect of exploration and research AUV offers one path to greater
knowledge of our ocean realm.
While individual AUVs have a great deal to offer, a system of advanced AUVs could truly open the
way to extensive ocean exploration. Such a system would include a basic mapping AUV to collect
baseline maps of the deep ocean. This vehicle would be equipped to identify interesting target areas
autonomously. It would transmit these locations to a second site classification AUV and carry on with its
mapping mission. Survey vehicles, such as the Hugin 3000, and scientific vehicles, such as the
Autonomous Benthic Explorer (ME), offer a solid base to develop an exploration mapping AUV.
The site classification AUV would carry imaging systems, high resolution mapping sonars and in
situ biological and chemical sensors. It would use these sensors to thoroughly map the local site. It is
expected that such site maps would cover areas of hundreds of square meters. During the site
survey process the AUV would identify interesting organisms or bottom areas for detailed
inspection and/or sampling. The SeaBed AUV developed at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
offers a current design which might easily evolve to an exploration and research site mapping AUV. [5]
The final vehicle in the exploration and research system would be an inspection and intervention
vehicle. This AUV would carry tools and sensors allowing it to observe target organisms or collect
samples. The operating area of interest for this AUV might be under 100 square meters but the
demanding tasks it would be assigned call for significantly advanced autonomy. Such an AUV is
furthest from availability but still a reasonable possibility.
Throughout this multi-vehicle system the AUVs could either communicate their findings and
instructions completely autonomously or there might be a command vessel and human operators in
the loop. In either case the decision making and adaptability required of the AUVs make this mission one
of the most difficult in NOAA. An evaluation of this mission is presented in Table 4.
NOAA AUV progams are funded by OE
Manley 4 [Justin E. – NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. Manley has been working with marine
technology since 1990. He was a principal in the development of unmanned marine vehicles at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology from 1993 to 2002. Between 2002 and 2009 Mr. Manley provided
marine technology consulting services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group;
“Technology Development for Ocean Exploration”, IEEE Xplore, NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration
\\NL]
B. NOAA Programs
Within NOAA, OE is collaborating across line offices and working to improve the tools available to
NOAA ocean scientists and explorers. A primary example is OE leadership of a working group to
promote the appropriate use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) within NOAA.
AUVs provide a new approach to missions ranging from hydrographic surveying and habitat
assessment to mid-water oceanography and marine archaeology. The AUV working group supports
teams from across NOAA interested in AUVs for fisheries research, hydrographic surveys and deep sea
coral studies. A variety of user groups with NOAA have adopted AUVs for pilot programs and OE
is working to expand these efforts. [E!] OE has also taken the lead in development of concepts for
the use of multiple AUV systems in NOAA. [9]
***Actor***
2AC—DOE Key
DOE key to lead MH development and exploration
NPC 11—National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory agency to the Secretary of Energy [“Prudent
Development: Realizing the Potential of North America’s Abundant Natural Gas and Oil Resources,”
National Petroleum Council, 2011, pp 32] // AG
Recommendation
yy Even as natural gas and oil companies continue to fund their own proprietary technology and other
research, federal government agencies should also support the development of new technology. While
different federal agencies may be appropriate homes for a range of research and technology development
efforts, the Department of Energy should lead in identifying, in some cases funding, and in other
cases supporting public-private partnerships for research and development on energy and certain
environmental issues of national interest (e.g., precommercial issues or issues where companies cannot
retain intellectual property). Examples where federal involvement is needed include:
−− The environmental impact of oil spills and cleanup, including residual effects of chemical dispersants,
and science-based risk assessments
−− Science and pre-commercial technology relating to methane hydrates
2AC—USFG K2 Exploration/Development
National methane hydrate research programs key to development
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 10,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Over the last 10 years, national led methane hydrate research programs, along with industry interest
have led to the development and execution of major methane hydrate production field test
programs. Two of the most important field testing programs have been conducted at the Mallik site in the
Mackenzie River Delta of Canada and in the Eileen methane hydrate accumulation on the North Slope of
Alaska. Most recently we have also seen the completion of the world’s first marine methane hydrate
production test in the Nankai Trough in the offshore of Japan. Industry interest in gas hydrates has
also included important projects that have dealt with the assessment of geologic hazards associated with
the presence of hydrates.
USFG key to future MH research
Moniz et al 11—Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems at MIT and the Director of the MIT
Energy Initiative. [“The Future of Natural Gas: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY MIT STUDY,” Ernest J.
Moinz, Chair, June 6, 2011, pp 8, accessed through Emory] // AG
MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS
The U.S. government should continue to sponsor methane hydrate research, with a particular
emphasis on the demonstration of production feasibility and economics.
2AC—NOAA OE Funding
OE funding mechanisms
Manley 4 [Justin E. – NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. Manley has been working with marine technology
since 1990. He was a principal in the development of unmanned marine vehicles at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology from 1993 to 2002. Between 2002 and 2009 Mr. Manley provided marine technology consulting
services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding
Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group; “Technology Development for Ocean Exploration”, IEEE Xplore,
NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration \\NL]
B. Mechanisms for Supporting Technology Development The OE technology program is executed
through a variety of mechanisms. Not all are used in any given fiscal year but the possibilities include:






Direct grants to fund proposals submitted in response to an annual announcement of
opportunity.
Grants through the National Ocean Partnership Program (NOPP).
Allocation of in kind resources (such as ship time) to project activities.
Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program awards.
Interagency agreements with other federal agencies.
Direct contracts for the procurement or use of technology, such as vessel, ROV, or AUV
services.
Working with any Federal agency can be complicated by diverse business practices, varying regulations
and unique agency requirements. NOAA is no different. OE strives to select the best mechanism for
any given technology project. Maximizing the value of each public dollar spent, ensuring fair and
open competition for grants and contracts and producing superior technical output are primary
factors in selecting the mechanisms used. Parties interested in working with OE on technology projects
are always welcome to contact the program to arrange demonstrations, briefings or simply exchange
ideas.
OE funding ensures the best exploration practices
Manley 4 [Justin E. – NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. Manley has been working with marine technology
since 1990. He was a principal in the development of unmanned marine vehicles at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology from 1993 to 2002. Between 2002 and 2009 Mr. Manley provided marine technology consulting
services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding
Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group; “Technology Development for Ocean Exploration”, IEEE Xplore,
NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration \\NL]
Technical excellence is a core value in the OE program. Strong ties to technology development labs
keep OE's technology program at the cutting edge of ocean engineering. OE works with engineers
at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI),
Institute for Exploration (IFE), the Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) and many other leading
institutions.
Defining a role for industry is an important opportunity for NOAA. Ongoing significant
commercial investments in marine technology must be leveraged for ocean exploration. In its
science programs, OE works to apply the latest industrial technology to exploration. One example is
the deployment of a commercially provided ROV, Sonsubs INNOVATOR, on the NOAA Ship Ronald H.
Brown during the 2003 field season, Fig 1. [6]
During 2004, OE contracted with C&C Technology to use their AUV, Hugin, for exploratory geophysical
surveys in the Gulf of Mexico and Straits of Florida. This project, planned for late 2004, will provide
scientists with the same high quality data used by offshore industry. The OE technology program works
to keep industry's best tools in the hands of ocean explorers.’
2AC—AUVs Solve
AUVs can be used for mapping
Manley 4 [Justin E. – NOAA Office of Ocean Exploration. Manley has been working with marine technology
since 1990. He was a principal in the development of unmanned marine vehicles at the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology from 1993 to 2002. Between 2002 and 2009 Mr. Manley provided marine technology consulting
services, primarily to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) where he was the founding
Chair of the NOAA-wide AUV Working Group; “Multiple AUV Missions in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration”, 2004 IEEElOES Autonomous Underwater Vehicles \\NL]
C. Office of Coast Survey Hydrographic Mapping
The utility of multiple AUVs in NOAA is perhaps most apparent in the missions of the Office of
Coast Survey. AUVs have already demonstrated their utility in the offshore survey market where
deepwater survey is a recognized and established commercial activity for AUVs. [4] The backlog of
hydrographic surveys required to update and maintain hydrographic charts of U.S. waters is well
known. The prospect of closing this gap through the use of AUVs is tantalizing.
As has been described above, OCS has already begun a test program designed to answer outstanding
questions about the use of AUVs in coastal survey roles. Extrapolating from one AUV to many is not a
difficult concept. The obvious mode of one vessel supporting multiple AWs can rapidly increase the
area surveyed. Careful coordination may be enough to achieve this goal. There are, however, some
deeper considerations which make multiple AUV hydrographic surveys more complicated. An evaluation
of this scenario is shown in Table 3.
***Mapping Neg***
Inherency
1NC Frontline—Inherency
US already exploring now—three projects
BOEM 12—Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. [“Assessment of in-place gas hydrate resources of
the lower 48 United States Outer Continental Shelf: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Fact Sheet,”
2012] // AG
Major Field Programs
In the last decade, significant advances in understanding the distribution, characterization, and
production potential of gas hydrate reservoirs have taken place through the execution of several
successful field programs. BOEM has been an active participant in the U.S. Department of
Energy’s (DOE) multiphased Gulf of Mexico Gas Hydrate Joint Industry Project (JIP) since it
began in 2001. The JIP recently confirmed the presence of high concentration gas hydrate accumulations
in sand reservoirs at several locations in the GOM during the Leg II drilling and well logging campaign
conducted in 2009. It is anticipated that additional efforts at these sites will include the collection of
pressure cores (returning gas hydrate samples to the surface while maintaining in situ temperature and
pressure conditions), acquisition of multicomponent and high resolution seismic data, and utilization of
borehole methods for short-term production testing.
In the Arctic regions of North America, several advanced field projects are under way to
characterize production potential from gas hydrate reservoirs in a permafrost environment. A joint
effort in 2008 led by Canadian and Japanese researchers at the Mallik well site located in the Mackenzie
Delta, Northwest Territories of Canada, obtained sustained gas flow to the surface from a gas hydrate
reservoir. Under carefully controlled conditions over a six day period, a stepwise reduction in bottomhole
pressure stimulated gas flow rates that averaged 70,000 - 100,000 ft3 per day. At the Mount Elbert well
site in the Milne Point area of the Alaskan North Slope, a joint effort led by BP Alaska Exploration,
DOE, and the USGS completed a gas hydrate test well in 2007. In addition to confirming the validity
of pre-drill seismically-based predictions of gas hydrate occurrence, fluid and reservoir flow-properties
data were obtained through the deployment of a wireline formation testing tool in the well. Additional
phases of this project may include long-term production testing.
A third Arctic project is underway with the Spring 2012 completion of the Ignik Sikumi #1 gas
hydrate field trial well from an ice pad in the Prudhoe Bay Operating Unit on the North Slope of
Alaska. In this production test, a mix of nitrogen and carbon dioxide was injected into the wellbore and
gas flow from a methane hydrate reservoir was established. Overall, the well produced for 30 days during
the 38-day flowback period, with peak rates as high as 175,000 ft3 per day and cumulative gas production
approaching one million standard cubic feet. The CO2 exchange project is a joint effort between DOE
and ConocoPhillips, with additional support from the Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation
(JOGMEC).
DOE already investing in methane hydrate research
Department of Energy 13—If you don’t know what the DOE is, google it. [“Energy Department
Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped Potential Energy Resource of the U.S.,”
Department of Energy, November 20, 2013, http://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-expandsresearch-methane-hydrates-vast-untapped-potential-energy-resource] // AG
WASHINGTON – Today, U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced nearly $5 million in
funding across seven research projects nationwide designed to increase our understanding of
methane hydrates — a large, completely untapped natural gas resource—and what it could mean for the
environment, as well as American economic competiveness and energy security.
“The recent boom in natural gas production - in part due to long-term Energy Department investments
beginning in the 70’s and 80’s - has had a transformative impact on our energy landscape, helping to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support thousands of American jobs,” said Secretary Moniz.
“While our research into methane hydrates is still in its early stages, these investments will increase
our understanding of this domestic resource and the potential to safely and sustainably unlock the
natural gas held within.”
Methane hydrates are ice-like structures with natural gas locked inside, which can be found both onshore
and offshore – including under the Arctic permafrost and in ocean sediments along nearly every
continental shelf in the world. The substance looks remarkably like white ice, but it does not behave like
ice. When methane hydrates are “melted,” or exposed to pressure and temperature conditions outside
those where the formations are stable, the solid crystalline lattice turns to liquid water, and the enclosed
methane molecules are released as gas. In May 2012, the Energy Department, alongside our Japanese
partners, announced a successful field trial of methane hydrate production technologies on Alaska’s North
Slope.
Managed by the Energy Department’s National Energy Technology Laboratory, the new projects
announced today will build on that success by researching alternative methods of extraction and
the potential for commercialization, as well as the environmental impact of natural gas extraction
from hydrate formations.
US already working with other countries to explore MHs
Richardson 08—Energy and security specialist at the Institute of South East Asian Studies.
[“Untapped energy sources fuels a paradox,” Michael Richardson, The Japan Times, September 25, 2008,
retrieved from LexisNexis] // AG
Since last April, the U.S. has signed separate agreements with India, South Korea and Japan to
cooperate in hydrate research, exploration and production. Japan, the U.S. and Canada, working in
close collaboration, have achieved several days of continuous extraction of methane from
underground hydrate reserves in the Arctic permafrost. Large-scale production tests are planned
in the Canadian Arctic this winter and in the U.S. Arctic next year.
Status Quo Research and Development of United States methane hydrates deposits
solves
DOE 13—“Energy Department Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped Potential
Energy Resource of the U.S.” The United States Department of Energy, November 20, 2013
http://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-expands-research-methane-hydrates-vast-untappedpotential-energy-resource
WASHINGTON – Today,
U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced nearly $5 million in funding
across seven research projects nationwide designed to increase our understanding of methane
hydrates — a large, completely untapped natural gas resource—and what it could mean for the environment, as well
as American economic competiveness and energy security. “The recent boom in natural gas production - in part due to
long-term Energy Department investments beginning in the 70’s and 80’s - has had a transformative impact on our energy landscape, helping to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support thousands of American jobs,” said Secretary Moniz. “While
our research into
methane hydrates is still in its early stages, these investments will increase our understanding of
this domestic resource and the potential to safely and sustainably unlock the natural gas held
within.” Methane hydrates are ice-like structures with natural gas locked inside, which can be found both onshore and offshore – including
under the Arctic permafrost and in ocean sediments along nearly every continental shelf in the world. The substance looks remarkably like white
ice, but it does not behave like ice. When methane hydrates are “melted,” or exposed to pressure and temperature conditions outside those where
the formations are stable, the solid crystalline lattice turns to liquid water, and the enclosed methane molecules are released as gas. In
May
2012, the Energy Department, alongside our Japanese partners, announced a successful field trial
of methane hydrate production technologies on Alaska’s North Slope. Managed by the Energy Department’s
National Energy Technology Laboratory, the new projects announced today will build on that success by researching alternative methods of
extraction and the potential for commercialization, as well as the environmental impact of natural gas extraction from hydrate formations. Project
Tech Research Corporation (Atlanta, GA) — Researchers will design, build,
and test a new borehole-sampling tool that will allow direct, in-place measurements of methane
hydrate-bearing sediment properties by reaching beyond the zone disturbed by drilling. The tool will be field deployed to
descriptions follow: Georgia
collect never-before-acquired data to evaluate resource recovery, seafloor stability, and gas hydrate responses to environmental changes. DOE
Investment: approximately $480,000 The University of Texas at Austin (Austin, TX) — The
University of Texas at Austin
along with Ohio State University and Columbia University-Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory
will examine what the primary influences are on the development of persistent, massive hydrate
accumulations in deep sediments below the seabed. By extending a 3-D reservoir model to include methods of sediment
deposits, compaction, pressure development, and methane creation, the project will provide valuable insights on the formation of massive hydrate
accumulations, the role of free gas in their persistence, and locations where these massive accumulations might be possible. DOE Investment:
A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) (College Station, TX) —
TEES, in conjunction with the Georgia Institute of Technology, will develop a numerical model to
address the many complexities associated with production from hydrate-bearing sediments. The
approximately $1.68 million Texas
project will provide a powerful new modeling tool to optimize future hydrate production-related testing and to provide a higher understanding of
how hydrate systems react to induced or natural changes in their environment. DOE Investment: approximately $390,000 Oregon State
University (Corvallis, OR) — Oregon
State University, in conjunction with a separate project funded by the
EU through Universities of Bremen (Germany) and Tromso (Norway), will assess the response of
methane hydrates to environmental changes at the Svalbard continental margin, part of Norway’s
continental shelf. Water and sediment core samples will be collected and analyzed to assess chemistry and microbiology changes from
factors that constrain biochemical responses in high latitude (Arctic) settings. Results will provide insights into the response of gas hydrates to
changing environmental conditions in zones susceptible to climate warming, the fate of methane in shallow subsurface and water columns, and
the role gas hydrates play in carbon cycling. DOE Investment: approximately $650,000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
(Cambridge, MA) — Conditions conducive for the development of natural gas hydrates generally occur between the seafloor and a relatively
shallow, sub-bottom depth where temperatures become excessively warm because of geothermal influences. This depth interval is commonly
called the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone (GHSZ). The fate of methane in the water column over places in the ocean floor where hydrogen sulfide,
methane and other hydrocarbon-rich fluids seepage occurs, within and above the GHSZ, will be investigated to determine the likelihood of
released methane reaching surface water or the atmosphere and the role that “hydrate armoring” or coating of methane bubbles may have on that
methane transport. MIT
will work with the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of New Hampshire
on the project. Study results should provide insights into conditions controlling methane bubble
formation and fate, enhance the understanding of seafloor methane release relative to gas hydrate
stability, and provide new information on an area of high interest for gas hydrate exploration. DOE
Investment: approximately $900,000 University of Washington (Seattle, WA) — The University of Washington will study
the effects of contemporary warming of bottom water temperatures on gas hydrate stability along
the Washington Margin—the boundary between two continental plates. This study will be one of the first
programs (outside the Arctic) focused on the response of a gas hydrate system located at the upper edge of the gas hydrate stability zone to
environmental changes. The project will provide a geochemical evaluation of the origin of methane emissions and a quantitative estimate of
methane flux and oxidation rates from the sediments, through the water column, and to the atmosphere. DOE Investment: approximately
$630,000 University of Oregon (Portland, OR) — The University of Oregon plans to develop predictive models to enhance our understanding of
how hydrates develop, environmental forces that cause them to dissociate and disrupt sedimentary structure, and better forecasting of hydrate
associated slope failure, gas escape features, and the release of methane into the water column and potentially the atmosphere. DOE Investment:
approximately $280,000
AT: Methane Release
1NC Frontline—Methane Release
Methane didn’t cause the Permian extinction
Higgins and Schrag 06—MA in Earth and Planetary Sciences (Summa cum laude) from Harvard //
Ph.D in Geology from University of California at Berkeley and a Sturgis Hooper Professor of Geology at
Harvard. [“Beyond methane: Towards a theory for Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum,” Earth and
Planetary Science Letters, Volume 245, 2006, pp 523-537] // AG
Extreme global warmth and an abrupt negative carbon isotope excursion during the Paleocene–Eocene
Thermal Maximum (PETM) have been attributed to a massive release of methane hydrate from sediments on the
continental slope [G.R. Dickens, J.R. O'Neil, D.K. Rea, R.M. Owen, Dissociation of oceanic methane hydrate as a cause of the carbon isotope
excursion at the end of the Paleocene, Paleoceanography 10 (1995) 965–971.]. However,
the magnitude of the warming (5 to 6
transient rise in
tropical sea surface temperature during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Science 302 (2003) 1551–1554.,J.P.
°C [J.C. Zachos, M.W. Wara, S. Bohaty, M.L. Delaney, M.R. Petrizzo, A. Brill, T.J. Bralower, I. Premoli-Silva, A
Kennett, L.D. Stott, Abrupt deep-sea warming, paleoceanographic changes and benthic extinctions at the end of the Paleocene, Nature 353 (1991)
225–228.]) and rise
in the depth of the CCD (N2 km; [J.C. Zachos, U. Rohl, S.A. Schellenberg, D. Hodell, E. Thomas, A. Sluijs, C.
Kelly, H. McCarren, D. Kroon, I. Raffi, L.J. Lourens, M. Nicolo, Rapid acidification of the ocean during the Paleocene–Eocene
Thermal Maximum, Science 308 (2005) 1611–1615.]) indicate that the size of the carbon addition was larger than can be
accounted for by the methane hydrate hypothesis . Additional carbon sources associated with
methane hydrate release (e.g. pore-water venting and turbidite oxidation) are also insufficient. We find that the
oxidation of at least 5000 Gt C of organic carbon is the most likely explanation for the observed
geochemical and climatic changes during the PETM, for which there are several potential mechanisms. Production
of thermogenic CH4 and CO2 during contact metamorphism associated with the intrusion of a
large igneous province into organic rich sediments [H. Svensen, S. Planke, A. Malthe-Sorenssen, B. Jamtveit, R.
Myklebust, T.R. Eidem, S.S. Rey, Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming, Nature 429
(2004).] is
capable of supplying large amounts of carbon, but is inconsistent with the lack of extensive carbon loss in
global conflagration of
Paleocene peatlands [A.C. Kurtz, L.R. Kump, M.A. Arthur, J.C. Zachos, A. Paytan, Early Cenozoic decoupling of the global
carbon and sulfur cycles, Paleoceanography 18 (2003).] highlights a large terrestrial carbon source, but massive
metamorphosed sediments, as well as the abrupt onset and termination of carbon release during the PETM. A
carbon release by fire seems unlikely as it would require that all peatlands burn at once and then for only 10 to 30 ky. In addition, this hypothesis
requires an order of magnitude increase in the amount of carbon stored in peat. The
isolation of a large epicontinental seaway
by tectonic uplift associated with volcanism or continental collision, followed by desiccation and
bacterial respiration of the aerated organic matter is another potential mechanism for the rapid
release of large amounts of CO2. In addition to the oxidation of the underlying marine sediments, the desiccation of a major
epicontinental seaway would remove a large source of moisture for the continental interior, resulting in the desiccation and bacterial oxidation of
adjacent terrestrial wetlands.
Oxidation solves for MHs
Archer 07—Professor of the Global carbon cycle, climate change, and aqueous chemistry at the
University of Chicago. [“Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change,” Biogeosciecnes
Discuss, 07/25/2007, pp 538] // AG
4.6 Geological-timescale response
On geologic time scales, the strongest climate impact appears to be from CO2, the oxidation product
of any released methane. Methane is a transient species in the atmosphere, with a lifetime of about a
decade. CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere/ocean/terrestrial biosphere carbon pool, and persists
to affect climate for hundreds of thousands of years (Archer, 2005). If a pool of methane is released
over a timescale of thousands of years, the climate impact from the accumulating CO2
concentration may exceed that from the steady-state increase in the methane concentration (Archer
and Buffett, 2005), see also Harvey and Huang (1995) and Schmidt and Shindell (2003). After the
emission stops, methane drops quickly to a lower steady state, while the CO2 persists (Schmidt and
Shindell, 2003).
If hydrates melt in the ocean, much of the methane would probably be oxidized in the ocean rather
than reaching the atmosphere directly as methane. This reduces the century-timescale climate
impact of melting hydrate, but on timescales of millennia and longer the climate impact is the same
regardless of where the methane is oxidized. Methane oxidized to CO2 in the ocean will equilibrate with
the atmosphere within a few hundred years, resulting in the same partitioning of the added CO2 between
the atmosphere and the ocean regardless of its origin.
Ryskin’s claims are wrong and he denies ever making them
Lubin 11 Gus, directs the editorial team of Business Insider, English major from Dartmouth:
http://www.businessinsider.com/gregory-ryskin-methane-2010-7#ixzz36RzBciaj
Suddenly everyone's talking about the methane-driven oceanic eruption and mass extinction
theories of Dr. Gregory Ryskin, claiming that elevated methane levels from the oil spill could cause
the end of mankind. Absent from this discussion has been Ryskin, who Northwestern University says
is out of his office until September. The professor gave us the real story by email: I also want to
emphasize that in my theory, methane hydrates (clathrates) do not play any role. Methane hydrates
are the volatile compounds that have been released in large quantities in the Gulf of Mexico. They may
suffocate aquatic life or cause a pressure explosion. But they probably won't poison the atmosphere and
destroy 96 percent of life on earth. He was talking about "an extremely fast, explosive release of
dissolved methane (and other dissolved gases...) that accumulated in the oceanic water masses." For
more on Ryskin's methane theories, he said we should watch this video from 2007.
It’s CO2 that’s bad, not methane
Archer 12—Professor of the Global carbon cycle, climate change, and aqueous chemistry at the
University of Chicago. [“Much ado about methane,” David Archer, Real Climate, 4 January 2012,
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/much-ado-about-methane/] // AG
Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, but it also has an awesome power to really get people worked up, compared
to other equally frightening pieces of the climate story.
What methane are we talking about?
The largest methane pools that people are talking about are in sediments of the ocean, frozen into hydrate or clathrate deposits (Archer, 2007).
The total amount of methane as ocean hydrates is poorly constrained but could rival the rest of the
fossil fuels combined. Most of this is unattractive to extract for fuel, and mostly so deep in the sediment column that it would take
thousands of years for anthropogenic warming to reach them. The Arctic is special in that the water column is colder
than the global average, and so hydrate can be found as shallow as 200 meters water depth.
On land, there is lots of methane in the thawing Arctic, exploding lakes and what not. This methane is
probably produced by decomposition of thawing organic matter. Methane could only freeze into hydrate
at depths below a few hundred meters in the soil, and then only at “lithostatic pressure” rather than
“hydrostatic”, meaning that the hydrate would have to be sealed from the atmosphere by some
impermeable layer. The great gas reservoirs in Siberia are thought to be in part frozen, but evidence for
hydrate within the permafrost soils is pretty thin (Dallimore and Collett,1995)
Is methane escaping due to global warming?
There have been observations of bubbles emanating from the sea floor in the Arctic (Shakhova, 2010; Shakhova et al., 2005) and off Norway
(Westbrook, 2009). The Norwegian bubble plume coincides with the edge of the hydrate stability zone, where a bit of warming could push the
surface sediments from stable to unstable.
A model of the hydrates (Reagan, 2009) produces a bubble plume
similar to what’s observed, in response to the observed rate of ocean water warming over the past
30 years, but with this warming rate extrapolated further back in time over the past 100 years. The
response time of their model is several centuries, so pre-loading the early warming like they did
makes it difficult to even guess how much of the response they model could be attributed to
human-induced climate change,
even if we knew how much of the last 30 years of ocean warming in that location came from
human activity.
Lakes provide an escape path for the methane by creating “thaw bulbs” in the underlying soil, and lakes
are everywhere appearing and disappearing in the Arctic as the permafrost melts. (Whether you get CO2
or a mixture of CO2 plus methane depends critically on water, so lakes are important for that reason also.)
So far there hasn’t been strong evidence presented for detection enhanced methane fluxes due to
anthropogenic warming yet. Yet it is certainly believable for the coming century however, which brings us to the next question:
What effect would a methane release have on climate?
The climate impact of releasing methane depends on whether it is released all at once, faster than its
lifetime in the atmosphere (about a decade) or in an ongoing, sustained release that lasts for longer than
that.
When methane is released chronically, over decades, the concentration in the atmosphere will rise
to a new equilibrium value. It won’t keep rising indefinitely, like CO2 would, because methane
degrades while CO2 essentially just accumulates. Methane degrades into CO2, in fact, so in simulations I did (Archer and
Buffett, 2005) the radiative forcing from the elevated methane concentration throughout a long release was about matched by the radiative
forcing from the extra CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere from the methane as a carbon source. In the figure below, the dashed lines are from a
simulation of a fossil fuel CO2 release, and the solid lines are the same model but with an added methane hydrate feedback. The radiative forcing
from the methane combines the CH4 itself which only persists during the time of the methane release, plus the added CO2 in the atmosphere,
which persists throughout the simulation of 100,000 years.
The possibility of a catastrophic release is of course what gives methane its power over the imagination
(of journalists in particular it seems). A submarine landslide might release a Gigaton of carbon as
methane (Archer, 2007), but the radiative effect of that would be small, about equal in magnitude (but
opposite in sign) to the radiative forcing from a volcanic eruption. Detectable perhaps but probably not
the end of humankind as a species.
What could happen to methane in the Arctic?
The methane bubbles coming from the Siberian shelf are part of a system that takes centuries to
respond to changes in temperature. The methane from the Arctic lakes is also potentially part of a new, enhanced, chronic
methane release to the atmosphere. Neither of them could release a catastrophic amount of methane (hundreds of
Gtons) within a short time frame (a few years or less). There isn’t some huge bubble of methane waiting to erupt as
soon as its roof melts.
And so far, the sources of methane from high latitudes are small, relative to the big player, which is
wetlands in warmer climes. It is very difficult to know whether the bubbles are a brand-new methane
source caused by global warming, or a response to warming that has happened over the past 100 years, or
whether plumes like this happen all the time. In any event, it doesn’t matter very much unless they get 10
or 100 times larger, because high-latitude sources are small compared to the tropics.
Methane as past killing agent?
Mass extinctions like the end-Permean and the PETM do typically leave tantalizing spikes in the carbon isotopic records preserved in limestones
and organic carbon. Methane has an isotopic signature, so any methane hijinks would be recorded in the carbon isotopic record, but so would
changes in the size of the living biosphere, soil carbon pools such as peat, and dissolved organic carbon in the ocean. The
end-Permean
extinction is particularly mysterious, and my impression is that the killing mechanism for that is
still up for grabs. Methane is also one of the usual suspects for the PETM, which consisted of about 100,000 years of isotopically light
carbon, which is thought to be due to release of some biologically-produced carbon source, similar to the way that fossil fuel CO2 is lightening
the carbon isotopes of the atmosphere today, in concert with really warm temperatures. I personally believe that the
combination of the
carbon isotopes and the paleotemperatures pretty much rules out methane as the original carbon
source (Pagani et al., 2006), although Gavin draws an opposite conclusion, which we may hash out in some future post. In any case, the
100,000-year duration of the warming means that the greenhouse agent through most of the event was CO2, not methane.
Could there be a methane runaway feedback?.
The “runaway greenhouse effect” that planetary scientists and climatologists usually call by that name involves water vapor. A runaway
greenhouse effect involving methane release (such as invoked here) is conceptually possible, but to
get a spike of methane
concentration in the air it would have to released more quickly than the 10-year lifetime of methane
in the atmosphere. Otherwise what you’re talking about is elevated methane concentrations, reflecting
the increased source, plus the radiative forcing of that accumulating CO2 . It wouldn’t be a methane runaway greenhouse
effect, it would be more akin to any other carbon release as CO2 to the atmosphere. This sounds like semantics, but it puts the methane system
into the context of the CO2 system, where it belongs and where we can scale it.
So maybe by the end of the century in some reasonable scenario, perhaps 2000 Gton C could be released by human activity under some sort of
business-as-usual scenario, and another 1000 Gton C could come from soil and methane hydrate release, as a worst case. We
set up a
model of the methane runaway greenhouse effect scenario, in which the methane hydrate inventory
in the ocean responds to changing ocean temperature on some time scale, and the temperature
responds to greenhouse gas concentrations in the air with another time scale (of about a millennium) (Archer
and Buffett, 2005). If the hydrates released too much carbon, say two carbons from hydrates for every one carbon from fossil fuels, on a time
scale that was too fast (say 1000 years instead of 10,000 years), the system could run away in the CO2 greenhouse mode described above. It
wouldn’t matter too much if the carbon reached the atmosphere as methane or if it just oxidized to CO2 in the ocean and then partially degassed
into the atmosphere a few centuries later.
The fact that the ice core records do not seem full of methane spikes due to high-latitude sources
makes it seem like the real world is not as sensitive as we were able to set the model up to be. This is
where my guess about a worst-case 1000 Gton from hydrates after 2000 Gton C from fossil fuels in the last paragraph comes from.
On the other hand, the deep ocean could ultimately (after a thousand years or so) warm up by several degrees in a business-as-usual scenario,
which would make it warmer than it has been in millions of years. Since it takes millions of years to grow the hydrates, they have had time to
grow in response to Earth’s relative cold of the past 10 million years or so. Also, the climate forcing from CO2 release is stronger now than it was
millions of years ago when CO2 levels were higher, because of the band saturation effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas. In short, if there was ever a
good time to provoke a hydrate meltdown it would be now. But “now”
in a geological sense, over thousands of years in
the future, not really “now” in a human sense. The methane hydrates in the ocean, in cahoots with permafrost
peats (which never get enough respect), could be a significant multiplier of the long tail of the CO2, but will probably not be a huge
player in climate change in the coming century.
Could methane be a point of no return?
Actually, releasing CO2 is a point of no return if anything is. The only way back to a natural climate in
anything like our lifetimes would be to anthropogenically extract CO2 from the atmosphere. The CO2
that has been absorbed into the oceans would degas back to the atmosphere to some extent, so we’d have
to clean that up too. And if hydrates or peats contributed some extra carbon into the mix, that would also
have to be part of the bargain, like paying interest on a loan.
Conclusion
It’s the CO2, friend.
2NC—Energy Fails
Energy from MHs won’t be ready until 2050
Boswell 11—PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [“Paper #1-11 METHANE
HYDRATES,” Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document of
the North American Resource Development Study, 2011, accessed through Emory] // AG
At the low end, it may be the case that gas hydrate recoverability will be limited through 2050 to
the most favorable permafrost-associated locations, due to geomechanical and other well
maintenance complications that are costly to manage, unacceptable environmental impacts related
to poor seal integrity, or lack of supporting regulation in the offshore. The resource associated with
the most favorable permafrost-associated locations (both onshore and offshore Alaska) is likely on the
scale of several tens of Tcf. Contribution of these resources to meeting demand outside various local
Alaska North Slope uses presupposes the development of gas delivery infrastructure to the Lower-48.
MHs have low economic potential
Maslin et al 10—Department of Geography at the University of Bristol. [“Review Gas hydrates: past
and future geohazard?” Mark Maslin, Matthew Owen, Richard Betts, Simon Day, Tom Dunkley Jones,
and Andrew Ridgwell, Philosophical Transaction Royal Society, Volume 368, 2010, pp 2375, DOI:
10.1098/rsta.2010.0065, accessed from Emory] // AG
Lower abundances of hydrates do not rule out their economic potential, but a lower total volume and
apparently lower concentration at most sites do suggest that only a limited percentage of the
deposits may provide an economically viable resource (Milkov & Sassen 2002). Potential economic
exploration of gas hydrates, however, raises two major issues.
- Production and use of gas (methane) hydrate releases the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.
- Production technology that is cost-effective, environmentally friendly and safe has yet to be
developed, for either marine or permafrost gas hydrate.
Fossil fuel reservoirs are sufficient for at least the next century. Hence, only a few countries?such as
Japan, which does not have any significant deposits of oil and natural gas?are implementing sizeable
programmes concerning an economic production of gas hydrate. Production of oceanic gas hydrate may
seem most attractive because of the relatively large quantities available compared with permafrost
regions; however, large-scale recovery of oceanic gas hydrates
is unlikely to be achieved in the short term for several reasons: (i) low concentration of gas in the
sediment, even though every cubic metre of gas hydrate can produce 164 m3 of methane, at
atmospheric conditions, the highest concentrations of oceanic gas hydrates quoted are 17-20% by
volume of the pore space, which equates to as little as 3 per cent sediment volume, (ii) the conditions for
production are far more complicated than in permafrost regions, and (iii) the geohazards involved
as well as the impact on the environment are difficult to assess. Small-scale production of methane
from permafrost gas hydrate already occurs at the Messoyakh held, in western Siberia (Krason 2000) and
has been trialled at.
2NC—Squo Solves
Status Quo Research and Development of United States methane hydrates deposits
solves
DOE 13—11/20/13 “Energy Department Expands Research into Methane Hydrates, a Vast, Untapped
Potential Energy Resource of the U.S.” The United States Department of Energy, November 20, 2013
http://energy.gov/articles/energy-department-expands-research-methane-hydrates-vast-untappedpotential-energy-resource
WASHINGTON – Today,
U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz announced nearly $5 million in funding
across seven research projects nationwide designed to increase our understanding of methane
hydrates — a large, completely untapped natural gas resource—and what it could mean for the environment, as well
as American economic competiveness and energy security. “The recent boom in natural gas production - in part due to
long-term Energy Department investments beginning in the 70’s and 80’s - has had a transformative impact on our energy landscape, helping to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions and support thousands of American jobs,” said Secretary Moniz. “While
our research into
methane hydrates is still in its early stages, these investments will increase our understanding of
this domestic resource and the potential to safely and sustainably unlock the natural gas held
within.” Methane hydrates are ice-like structures with natural gas locked inside, which can be found both onshore and offshore – including
under the Arctic permafrost and in ocean sediments along nearly every continental shelf in the world. The substance looks remarkably like white
ice, but it does not behave like ice. When methane hydrates are “melted,” or exposed to pressure and temperature conditions outside those where
the formations are stable, the solid crystalline lattice turns to liquid water, and the enclosed methane molecules are released as gas. In
May
2012, the Energy Department, alongside our Japanese partners, announced a successful field trial
of methane hydrate production technologies on Alaska’s North Slope. Managed by the Energy Department’s
National Energy Technology Laboratory, the new projects announced today will build on that success by researching alternative methods of
extraction and the potential for commercialization, as well as the environmental impact of natural gas extraction from hydrate formations. Project
Tech Research Corporation (Atlanta, GA) — Researchers will design, build,
and test a new borehole-sampling tool that will allow direct, in-place measurements of methane
hydrate-bearing sediment properties by reaching beyond the zone disturbed by drilling. The tool will be field deployed to
descriptions follow: Georgia
collect never-before-acquired data to evaluate resource recovery, seafloor stability, and gas hydrate responses to environmental changes. DOE
Investment: approximately $480,000 The University of Texas at Austin (Austin, TX) — The
University of Texas at Austin
along with Ohio State University and Columbia University-Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory
will examine what the primary influences are on the development of persistent, massive hydrate
accumulations in deep sediments below the seabed. By extending a 3-D reservoir model to include methods of sediment
deposits, compaction, pressure development, and methane creation, the project will provide valuable insights on the formation of massive hydrate
accumulations, the role of free gas in their persistence, and locations where these massive accumulations might be possible. DOE Investment:
A&M Engineering Experiment Station (TEES) (College Station, TX) —
TEES, in conjunction with the Georgia Institute of Technology, will develop a numerical model to
address the many complexities associated with production from hydrate-bearing sediments. The
approximately $1.68 million Texas
project will provide a powerful new modeling tool to optimize future hydrate production-related testing and to provide a higher understanding of
how hydrate systems react to induced or natural changes in their environment. DOE Investment: approximately $390,000 Oregon State
University (Corvallis, OR) — Oregon
State University, in conjunction with a separate project funded by the
EU through Universities of Bremen (Germany) and Tromso (Norway), will assess the response of
methane hydrates to environmental changes at the Svalbard continental margin, part of Norway’s
continental shelf. Water and sediment core samples will be collected and analyzed to assess chemistry and microbiology changes from
factors that constrain biochemical responses in high latitude (Arctic) settings. Results will provide insights into the response of gas hydrates to
changing environmental conditions in zones susceptible to climate warming, the fate of methane in shallow subsurface and water columns, and
the role gas hydrates play in carbon cycling. DOE Investment: approximately $650,000 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
(Cambridge, MA) — Conditions conducive for the development of natural gas hydrates generally occur between the seafloor and a relatively
shallow, sub-bottom depth where temperatures become excessively warm because of geothermal influences. This depth interval is commonly
called the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone (GHSZ). The fate of methane in the water column over places in the ocean floor where hydrogen sulfide,
methane and other hydrocarbon-rich fluids seepage occurs, within and above the GHSZ, will be investigated to determine the likelihood of
released methane reaching surface water or the atmosphere and the role that “hydrate armoring” or coating of methane bubbles may have on that
methane transport. MIT
will work with the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of New Hampshire
on the project. Study results should provide insights into conditions controlling methane bubble
formation and fate, enhance the understanding of seafloor methane release relative to gas hydrate
stability, and provide new information on an area of high interest for gas hydrate exploration. DOE
Investment: approximately $900,000 University of Washington (Seattle, WA) — The University of Washington will study
the effects of contemporary warming of bottom water temperatures on gas hydrate stability along
the Washington Margin—the boundary between two continental plates. This study will be one of the first
programs (outside the Arctic) focused on the response of a gas hydrate system located at the upper edge of the gas hydrate stability zone to
environmental changes. The project will provide a geochemical evaluation of the origin of methane emissions and a quantitative estimate of
methane flux and oxidation rates from the sediments, through the water column, and to the atmosphere. DOE Investment: approximately
$630,000 University of Oregon (Portland, OR) — The University of Oregon plans to develop predictive models to enhance our understanding of
how hydrates develop, environmental forces that cause them to dissociate and disrupt sedimentary structure, and better forecasting of hydrate
associated slope failure, gas escape features, and the release of methane into the water column and potentially the atmosphere. DOE Investment:
approximately $280,000
2NC—Private Industries Don’t Care About Pollution
Private industries remain unconcerned about pollution regulations-risks unsafe
methane development practices
Moloney 2/14 The New York Times, “Studies Find Methane Leaks Negate Benefits of Natural Gas as
a Fuel for Vehicles” Kevin Moloney is a writer for the Times and frequently opines on science issues
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/14/us/study-finds-methane-leaks-negate-climate-benefits-of-naturalgas.html?_r=0
WASHINGTON — The sign is ubiquitous on city buses around the country: “This bus runs on clean
burning natural gas.” But a surprising new report, to be published Friday in the journal Science, concludes
that switching buses and trucks from traditional diesel fuel to natural gas could actually harm the planet’s
climate. Although burning natural gas as a transportation fuel produces 30 percent less planetwarming carbon dioxide emissions than burning diesel, the drilling and production of natural gas
can lead to leaks of methane, a greenhouse gas 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide. Those
methane leaks negate the climate change benefits of using natural gas as a transportation fuel,
according to the study, which was conducted by scientists at Stanford University, the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology and the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
The study concludes that there is already about 50 percent more methane in the atmosphere than
previously estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency, a signal that more methane is leaking
from the natural gas production chain than previously thought. “Switching from diesel to natural gas,
that’s not a good policy from a climate perspective,” said the study’s lead author, Adam R. Brandt, an
assistant professor in the department of energy resources at Stanford. But the study does conclude that
switching from coal-fired power plants — the nation’s largest source of carbon pollution — to natural
gas-fired power plants will still lower planet-warming emissions over all. Natural gas emits just half the
carbon pollution of coal, and even factoring in the increased pollution from methane leaks, natural gasfired plants lead to less emissions than coal over 100 years, the study found. The report adds weight to
efforts by New York and other Northeastern states to push the federal government to regulate methane
emissions. Currently, there are no federal regulations on methane emissions from oil and gas
production, although some states are considering such rules. The finding on trucks and buses is a
blow to years of public policy efforts to switch the vehicles from diesel to natural gas, an effort aimed at
decreasing pollution as well as America’s dependence on foreign oil. President Obama praised natural gas
production in his last two State of the Union addresses, and has noted that natural gas production creates
jobs while natural gas-powered electricity is more climate friendly than coal. But environmentalists say
that natural gas production comes with the hidden climate risk of methane leaks from drilling
wellheads, valves and pipelines. The report’s authors conclude that the leaks can be reined in if oil and
gas companies invest in technology to prevent methane from escaping into the atmosphere from gas wells
and production facilities. That recommendation is in line with a petition sent by New York and other
Northeastern states urging the E.P.A. to create federal methane leak regulations. The regulations would
require that oil and gas companies install equipment at wellheads to capture the leaks, use valves in
production facilities that do not allow methane to escape and have regular inspections. “This report
justifies E.P.A. taking action on regulation of methane pollution and to focus that regulation on existing
wells,” said Mark Brownstein, chief counsel for the American climate and energy program at the
Environmental Defense Fund. The oil and gas industry has consistently resisted new regulations.
Natural gas developers say that it is in their interest to capture methane since it is a component of
natural gas and can be sold as such. Allowing it to escape causes them to lose money. “The industry
has led efforts to reduce emissions of methane by developing new technologies and equipment, and
these efforts are paying off,” Carlton Carroll, a spokesman for the American Petroleum Institute, which
lobbies for oil and gas companies in Washington, wrote in an email. “Given that producers are
voluntarily reducing methane emissions, additional regulations are not necessary.” Friday’s report is
one of a series of closely watched and sometimes hotly disputed studies on the environmental impacts of
natural gas production. Natural gas producers celebrated a September report published in The Proceedings
of the Natural Academies of Science that concluded that methane leaks from hydraulic fracturing sites
are, on average, at or lower than levels set by the E.P.A. However, that study also found that on some
fracking rigs, valves allow methane to escape at levels 30 percent higher than those set by E.P.A.
The authors of Friday’s study say that despite the good news in that report, methane appears to be
leaking elsewhere in the natural gas supply, production and transportation chain. For example, the
authors said, methane could be leaking from facilities where natural gas is stored, compressed or
transported.
2NC—No Infrastructure for Methane
Current methane storage and transportation is insufficient in preventing emission:
methane leaks are severely underestimated
Pentland, 2/13 Pentland, William. Forbes ” Underestimated Methane Leaks Make Natural Gas Dirtier
Than Previously Thought, Says Study” February 13, 2014.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2014/02/13/underestimated-methane-leaks-make-naturalgas-dirtier-than-previously-thought-says-study/
Methane emissions are worse than the conventional wisdom would have you believe, according to a
new study by researchers at Stanford University. Methane, which is the primary component of natural
gas, is an especially powerful greenhouse gas, packing more than two dozen times as much global
warming potential than carbon dioxide. Traditionally, environmental regulators and energy industry
groups have estimated methane emissions by multiplying the amount of methane emitted by a
specific source – e.g., belching cattle or methane leaks at natural gas processing plants – by the
number of that source type in a geographic region. For example, imagine that a cow emits 1/10 of a
metric ton of methane every year. If the United States has 10 cows, the total methane emissions
attributable to cattle is one metric ton annually. By adding the total methane emissions from cattle with
the totals from every other source of methane emissions, we can derive the total methane emissions for
the United States. That is how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has traditionally
calculated methane emissions since the 1990s. If the methane emissions rates (e.g., how much
methane does a cow emit in a year?) are wrong, the total estimated methane emissions are also
wrong. Several studies have tested the accuracy of these traditional methane emissions estimates by
using airplanes and towers to measure actual methane in the air. The new study, “Methane
Leakage from North American Natural Gas Systems,” evaluated more than 200 of these
atmospheric studies and concluded that the EPA’s methane emissions estimates are too low. The
key take-away: the EPA is likely underestimating U.S. methane emissions from natural gas by at
least 50% or more. “People who go out and actually measure methane pretty consistently find more
emissions than we expect,” said Adam Brandt, an assistant professor of energy resources engineering at
Stanford University and the study’s lead author. “Atmospheric tests covering the entire country
indicate emissions around 50% more than EPA estimates. And that’s a moderate estimate.” This
means that methane leaks from the natural gas system are likely to worse than previously thought.
Nevertheless, generating electricity by burning gas rather than coal still reduces the total greenhouse
effect over 100 years, the new analysis shows. Burning coal releases enormous amounts of carbon
dioxide. Mining coal also releases a lot of methane. More importantly, the majority of methane emitted
from the natural gas system can be traced to a relatively small number of large leaks, which means the
problem would likely not be terribly difficult to fix. While natural gas is cleaner than coal when used for
electric power, it is dirtier than diesel when used for transportation. The new study concluded that
powering trucks and buses with natural gas instead of diesel fuel probably accelerates global warming,
because diesel engines are relatively clean. Natural gas will only be cleaner than diesel if the gas system
is less leaky than the EPA’s current estimate, which the study suggests is unlikely. “Fueling trucks and
buses with natural gas may help local air quality and reduce oil imports, but it is not likely to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions,” said Brandt. Even running passenger cars on natural gas instead of gasoline is
probably on the borderline in terms of climate.” The study, which will be published in the February 14,
2014 issue of the journal Science, was supported by the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation.
2NC—Drilling MHs Bad
Exploiting methane hydrates has huge climate risks even if burned safely
Rowell 13 Andy Rowell is a major contributor at thepriceofoil where he frequently writes articles
pertaining to natural gas issues. <http://priceofoil.org/2013/03/13/the-madness-of-exploiting-methanehydrates/> March 13, 2013.
The complete folly of our current energy path was once again laid bare yesterday with the news
from Japan that the state-owned oil and gas company JOGMEC had successfully drilled under the
seabed into deposits of methane hydrate. Methane hydrates are ice-like solids, a crystalline mix of
frozen methane and water. They are sometimes known as flammable ice. There are vast swathes of
methane hydrates buried beneath the Arctic tundra – and there are also huge deposits to be found
offshore in depths of 200 to 500 metres. The US Geological Survey argues that methane hydrates
offer an “immense carbon reservoir”, twice all other known fossil fuels on earth. That is potentially
one huge amount of carbon that could be burnt or released into the atmosphere. For anyone worried
about climate change, the exploitation of methane hydrates is potentially disastrous news. For decades
climate scientists have warned of the dangers of how a melting Arctic could lead to climate chaos, by
releasing vast tonnes of methane – a potent greenhouse gas. At the same time, the oil industry has been
looking to exploit the offshore methane hydrates entrapped beneath the sea. And yesterday came
the news from the industry that they had been successful. “This is the world’s first trial production of
gas from oceanic methane hydrates, and I hope we will be able to confirm stable gas production,” said
Toshimitsu Motegi, the Japanese trade minister, at a news conference in Tokyo. He likened the
considerable technological challenges to that of shale gas, which was “considered technologically
difficult to extract but is now produced on a large scale. By tackling these challenges one by one, we
could soon start tapping the resources that surround Japan.” The Japanese company JOGMEC added:
“Methane hydrates available within Japan’s territorial waters may well be able to supply the nation’s
natural gas needs for a century”. The company said its immediate discovery holds some 40 trillion
cubic feet of methane, equivalent to eleven years of imports and hopes to bring the gas to market
within five years. You can understand why the Japanese are keen on the technology. They have no
domestic reserves of conventional fossil fuels to speak of and the country is the largest importer of LNG
and was heavily reliant on nuclear power. Two years ago Fukushima changed everything and Japan
switched off all but two of its reactors. The last two years have been incredibly difficult for Japan, but the
country’s Institute of Energy Economics argues that methane hydrate could be the “game-changer” which
could help make the country energy competitive. But here is the rub: we know we can’t burn all of the
fossil fuel reserves, without causing climate chaos. So the concept of burning a new type of carbon –
methane hydrates – just seems madness from a climate perspective. Furthermore, to make things
worse: the risk of methane leakage into the atmosphere during extraction of hydrates will be a
major problem. As an article in the New York Times yesterday points out: “The exact properties of
undersea hydrates and how they might affect the environment are still poorly understood, given
that methane is a greenhouse gas.” But others are following Japan’s lead: Canada, the US and China are
all looking into ways of exploiting methane hydrate deposits. The US is currently funding 14 different
research projects into methane hydrates after a successful test on Alaska’s North Slope. Reserves
are said to be anything from 10,000 trillion cubic feet to more than 100,000 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas. Although an unknown quantity could never be exploited, these vastly outweigh US shale
reserves which are estimated to contain 827 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The exploitation of methane
hydrates may make fracking and the tar sands look like a walk in the park. The Washington Post points
out the blindingly obvious: If a “significant fraction” of hydrates are developed the bottom line is
that “It could prove impossible to keep global warming below the goal of 2°C”. So we are now
willingly exploiting a new resource of carbon, knowing it will lead to climate chaos. That seems
madness to me.
Drilling for methane hydrates threatens earthquakes, further warming, ocean
acidification-it is the most likely scenario that can lead to extinction
Morningstar 11 [Cory Morningstar, “Destination—Hell. Are we there yet?,” Huntington News,
Sunday, March 27, 2011—01:09, pg. http://www.huntingtonnews.net/2768
Part Four of an investigative report. This is the fourth and final installment of an investigative report uncovering and analyzing a global plan to
capture and utilize the ocean's store of methane hydrates. The investigation reflects upon the decades of planning coordinated by the world's most
powerful institutions, including the global banking and investment corporations, global fossil fuel energy corporations, United Nations, the
OECD, the United States (US) Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, the administrations of each of the leading greenhouse gasemitting states, and powerful NGOs. The report details why and how the coordinated planning evolved while keeping the public-at-large in the
dark. Finally, the report explains why methane must be considered the most lethal contributor to climate change, according to the most recent and
relevant science. By Cory Morningstar Destination – Hell. Are we there yet? Drilling and Earthquakes 16 June 2004: US
Department of
Energy meeting summary: "Alternatively, an undersea earthquake today, say off the Blake Ridge
or the coast of Japan or California might loosen and cause some of the sediment to slide down the
ridge or slump, exposing the hydrate layer to the warmer water. That in turn could cause a chain
reaction of events, leading to the release of massive quantities of methane. Another possibility is
drilling and other activities related to exploration and recovery of methane hydrates as an energy
resource. The hydrates tend to occur in the pores of sediment and help to bind it together.
Attempting to remove the hydrates may cause the sediment to collapse and release the hydrates. So,
it may not take thousands of years to warm the ocean and the sediments enough to cause massive
releases, only lots of drilling rigs. Returning to the 4 GtC release scenario, assume such a release
occurs over a one-year period sometime in the next 50 years as result of slope failure. According to the
Report of the Methane Hydrate Advisory Committee, “Catastrophic slope failure appears to be necessary to release a
sufficiently large quantity of methane rapidly enough to be transported to the atmosphere without
significant oxidation or dissolution.” In this event, methane will enter the atmosphere as methane
gas. It will have a residence time of several decades and a global warming potential of 62 times that
of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. This would be the equivalent of 248 GtC as carbon dioxide or 31 times the annual
man-made GHG emissions of today. Put another way, this would have the impact of nearly 30 years worth of GHG
warming all at once. The result would almost certainly be a rapid rise in the average air temperature, perhaps as much as 3°F
immediately. This might be tolerable if that’s as far as things go. But, just like 15,000 years ago, if the feedback mechanisms
kick in, we can expect rapid melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice and an overall temperature
increase of 30°F." Since writing the first 3 instalments of this investigative series, the race to drill methane hydrates has
begun in Japan. New Zealand, in a joint venture with Germany, is the next in line to commence. 1 February 2011: "Seabed drilling
exploration for methane hydrate in coastal waters, utilizing a world-class deep sea exploration vessel, is scheduled to start Saturday. In the
planned exploration, the Chikyu is expected to drill 100 meters to 400 meters into the seabed, which lies at a depth of 700 meters to 1,000 meters.
The geological structure of layers surrounding the hydrate, and
the degree of stability regarding drill holes and pipes,
are among the subjects to be surveyed. The Chikyu uses state-of-the-art equipment able to drill as deep as 7,000 meters under the
seabed." On 11 March 2011, the world witnessed one of the most powerful earthquakes since 1900, devastating the country of Japan. It has
resulted in anuclear catastrophe still unfolding. Lethal tsunamis followed the earthquake, and were not limited to Japan. A wildlife sanctuary
situated on a tiny atoll near Hawaii lay victim to one such resulting tsunami, wiping out thousands of endangered seabirds and other animals.
Exposure to radiationcontinues to threaten citizens as far away as California. The video below features Dr Helen Caldicott speaking in Montreal,
Canada: UN lies about nuclear threat. Caldicott has been named one of the most influential women of the 20th Century by the Smithsonian
Institute. (Filmed on 18 March 2011: 5:06) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65ptQASTKCk On
3 September 2010 and 22
February 2011, the world witnessed two deadly earthquakes in Christchurch, Aotearoa (New
Zealand). What is not widely known, is the fact that Japan announced it would commence drilling
methane hydrates on 1 February 2011. Also not widely known, is the fact that the corporation
Petrobras commenced drilling at depths of 3000 metres, off the coast of Aotearoa, into a newly
discovered fault line, around the same time last year that Christchurch started having earthquakes.
The Raukumara Basin of Aotearoa sits on a major and active fault line. The Raukumara Basin, a high seismic activity area, covers 25,000 square
kilometres, extending about 300 kilometres north and around 100 kilometres wide off East Cape in the North Island. Petrobras have been
awarded a permit for 12,330 square kilometres within the basin, extending from four kilometres off the New Zealand coast to 110 kilometres
from the coast. (20 August 2010: Govt's petroleum permit ignored environment) On 24 January 2011, a group of international and New Zealand
scientists drilled directly into South Island's Alpine Fault - a massive fault line to investigate its structure, mechanics and evolution. Vast
quantities of methane hydrates collect along geological fault lines. Japan sits atop a nexus of three of the world’s largest. On 24 February 2011,
15 days prior to Japan’s devastating earthquake, Dr Elisabetta Mariani, in an interview with BBC was asked if drilling holes in the major 'alpine'
fault running through new Zealand was a good idea. She answered: "As scientists [we can say] ... there is another important drilling going on ...
off shore the east coast of Japan ... and is going well and is successful and has not caused problems which the locals were concerned about so this
is what we told [the New Zealanders] and what we tell you as well." On
7 March 2011, in response to the Arkansas Oil
and Gas Commission, two US gas drilling companies agreed to suspend specific operations at wells
near Arkansas after their work was linked to nearby earthquakes. Both Chesapeake Energy, based in Oklahoma,
and Clarita Operating of Little Rock, informed the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission that they have halted operation of the wells near
Greenbrier and Guy. 800 earthquakes have hit the area in the past six months. One
was a 4.7 quake – the strongest in
Arkansas in 35 years. Is it possible, that either of the massive earthquakes which devastated Japan and New Zealand, can be connected
to invasive deep drilling? As the late Carl Sagan, NASA Distinguished Public Service Medal recipient, has eloquently stated: Absence of
evidence is not evidence of absence. It appears that the recent drilling into the Nankai Trough fault line is not to blame in the case of Japan, as the
fault line which ruptured is said to be different than that of the Tokai area, where the Nankai Trough fault line exists. However, the impact from
the methane hydrate drilling, if it did proceed on 5 February 2011, as planned, is unknown. Methane hydrates, deposited on the seafloor, are
present all along the Pacific coast from Kyushu to the Tokai district .
The suggestion that human activity can cause
seismic activity is widely accepted in the scientific community. A paper in the journal Oilfield
Reviewpublished in 2000, noted that the connection between oil production and earthquakes dates
back to at least the 1920s, when geologists in South Texas noted faulting near an oil field. In May of
2010, The Royal Society releases 12 research papers in the theme issue titled 'Climate forcing of geological and geomorphological hazards'. Top
scientists call for research on climate in connection to earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis and gas-hydrate destabilisation observing that the
"ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere." From the editors introduction:
"The sensitivity to climate change of gas hydrates, in both marine and continental settings, has long captured interest, in relation to its potential
role in past episodes of rapid warming, such as in the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), and in the context of anthropogenic
warming. In the first of a pair of papers on the subject, Maslin et al. review the current state of the science as it relates to gas hydrates as a
potential hazard. The authors note that gas hydrates may present a serious threat as the world warms, primarily through the release of large
quantities of methane into the atmosphere, thus forcing accelerated warming, but also as a consequence of their possible role in promoting
submarine slope failure and consequent tsunami generation."
The Nankai Trough subduction zone, located southwest
of Japan, is one of the most active earthquake zones on Earth. This is a region notorious for generating devastating
earthquakes and tsunamis with complex geological formations caused by tectonic plate thrusts. On 31 August 2010scientists returned from the
first ever riser drilling operations in Seismogenic Zone, an operation named Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE). The
NanTroSEIZE expedition 332 completed expedition on 11 December 2010. Stage 1 (2007-2008) of the operation included discovery of methane
hydrates. A third-party representative of the venture is Halliburton. There are numerous methane-hydrate deposits within the oceans surrounding
Japan, shown in red on the map to the far left. They are found in the Nankai Trough, on the Chyoshi Spur, the eastern portion of the Japan Sea,
and the southern Okhotsk Sea. The GSJ has calculated that these deposits combined, would yield 6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas (over a
hundred times the amount consumed per year in Japan). (Source: Geological Survey of Japan) Image on right represents global methane hydrates.
The overview of the first offshore production test of methane hydrate in the Nankai Trough undertaken by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National
Corporation (JOGMEC) can be read here. The final selection on the test location will be made by the end of March 2011. The Japanese citizens
have been inundated with untold pain and suffering. It is unconscionable to expect the Japanese people to further risk themselves and their
children, for corporate wealth, yet, that is exactly what the Japanese government, with support from the Canadian Government and other major
greenhouse-gas emitting states are expecting: · 26 December 2007, Bloomberg, Japan Mines 'Flammable Ice,' Flirts With Environmental
Disaster: ''Fifty-five million years ago the world's climate was catastrophically changed when volcanoes melted natural gas frozen in the seabed.
Now Japan plans to drill for the same icy crystals to end its reliance on imported energy ... A
mass release of methane into the
sea and the atmosphere is a risk for global warming ... Massive landslides at the ocean floor must be
avoided when drilling at the Nankai Trough.'' · 27 September 2010, The Guardian, Japan to drill for
controversial 'fire ice': "Concerns had been raised that digging for frozen methane would destabilise the
methane beds, which contain enough gas worldwide to snuff out most complex life on earth ...
Jogmecacknowledges the problems, admitting mining of methane ice could lead to landslides and the devastation of marine life in the mining
areas." · 3 October 2010, autobloggreen, Japan's trade ministry seeks $1b investment to drill for controversial methane hydrates: "There's a big
risk involved, too. If the drilling is unsuccessful, some experts predict the attempt could destabilize the methane beds and trigger an
environmental disaster of epic proportions. So, good luck!" · 15-17 November 2010, International Symposium on Methane Hydrates Resources
from Mallik to Nankai Trough: "The primary goal of the symposium will be to provide an overview of recent research achievements by Japan to
characterize methane hydrate in the Nankai Trough area, and by Canada and Japan to quantify the production response of permafrost gas hydrate
in the Mackenzie Delta."
In 2010, the Geological Society of America publishes a report: Massive methane
release triggered by seafloor erosion offshore southwestern Japan. Their analysis is strikingly
similar to the Storegga Slide, an event that resulted in a tsunami as high as 25 metres, as described
in part II of this investigative report: ''We hypothesize that erosion of the seafloor via bottom-water
currents unroofed buoyant hydrate-laden sediments and subhydrate overpressured free gas zones
beneath the anticline. Once triggered, gas-driven erosion created a positive feedback mechanism,
releasing gas and eroding hydrate-bearing sediment. We suggest that erosive currents in deepwater methane hydrate provinces act as hair triggers, destabilizing kilometer-scale swaths of the
seafloor where large concentrations of underlying overpressured methane exist. Our analysis
suggests that kilometer-scale degassing events are widespread, and that deep-water hydrate
reservoirs can rapidly release methane in massive quantities.'' Kalev Leetaru, Senior Research Scientist for Content
Analysis at the Institute for Computing in the Humanities, Arts, and Social Science at the University of Illinois Coordinator of Information
Technology and Coordinator of Information Technology and Research at the University of Illinois Cline Center for Democracy, is unequivocal in
his paper titled Methane Hydrate: An Apocalyptic Panacea:
''In our never-ending search to quench our thirst for
energy-producing resources, we could end up destroying our planet. This remote, but very real
possibility is made all the more real by the global impact of methane, both in the explosive bursts it
often triggers on its release, and as a greenhouse gas once it has been released into the atmosphere.''
On a side-note, scientists are planning to drill all the way through the planet's miles-thick crust to
Earth's deep, hot mantle in order to retrieve samples for the first time by 2020. Will we drill
ourselves to death? It appears so. The tragedy is this - solar and wind have never been known to cause meltdowns, tsunamis,
landslides, cancers or sickness. Yet we all know that a society which is self-sufficient is the greatest threat to the fossil fuel economy and current
power structures that exist today. This system has been and will continue to be, protected at all costs. Human life is expendable whereas corporate
profits, economic growth and quarterly gains have all become absolutely sacrosanct. We are now past peak oil (International Energy Agency,
2006). This is leading to an investment drive for Arctic oil and gas, which holds 13 percent of the world's remaining oil and 30 percent of its gas.
As conventional oil declines, the price of oil increases. Insatiable corporate lust for further profit results in dangerous high-risk drilling
operations, while even the most expensive regions become economically viable. Oil and gas corporations plan extensive drilling in the Arctic
regions. In September 2010 a UK corporation, Cairn Energy, commenced drilling for oil in Greenland's Arctic waters. In January 2011, BP
received approval to drill for oil off the Russian Arctic shelf. Most revealing, on 16 March 2011, a US presidential commission charged with
investigating the Gulf of Mexico oil spill issued recommendations for approval and regulating of oil drilling off the coast of Alaska. Today:
Arctic Feedback Time Bomb “All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted
as self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer Above: Geographical reconstruction for the PETM from the PALEOMAP Project (www.scotese.com).
Boxes indicate reconstructed surface temperature anomalies for the PETM relative to Paleocene background temperatures based on oxygen
isotopes, Mg/Ca ratios and TEX86 (compiled by Appy Sluijs). The PETM was a mass ocean extinction event, characterized by ocean warming,
ocean acidification and ocean anoxia. In 2006, a group of researchers found that during the PETM, tropical algae migrated into the Arctic Ocean
when temperatures rose to 24ºC. A recent study in 2010 discovered that even though the Pliocene Epoch (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago) was
approximately 19ºC warmer than today, CO2 levels were only slightly higher than they are today. [21] Ocean Ice Meltdown + Permafrost Thaw +
Venting Methane Hydrates + Tundra Warming/Nitrous Oxide = Arctic Methane Time Bomb. Today's
global warming of less
than 1ºC has enabled the oceans to warm to the extent that the unimaginable has happened. The
fuse has reached the Arctic methane hydrates, which are melting on the ocean floor. This single factor is
the most dire emergency to all life on the planet today. Detonating the Methane Time Bomb If this time bomb is allowed to detonate, it will wipe
out life on this planet. Dr.
Ira Leifer, researcher at the Marine Science Institute:"The Arctic has enough
buried methane that a one percent release would quadruple global concentrations of atmospheric
methane. That's the equivalent of increasing CO2 by a factor of ten.... It would be pretty close to
the end of civilization as we know it, and this could happen. It doesn't mean it's going to happen … but we want people to be
aware [of the possibility]." (In a follow-up communication from Ira Leifer, for clarification, he notes that a factor of 10 has huge uncertainties,
that it would probably be something like that but worse. Methane (CH4) has the same forcing on a 20 year time scale (IPCC, 2007) as CO2, but
does not overlap with water vapor bands, and is not saturated in its absorption bands, unlike CO2, hence increasing factor of 4 to factor of 10.)
Although governments have been targeting a 2ºC temperature rise – which would be cataclysmic – today (barring technologies to cool the planet
and remove CO2 from the atmosphere safely) we are absolutely committed to at least a doubling of today's temperature increase (which is 0.8ºC)
within a few decades. (The Ramanathan and Feng 2008 paper, based on GHG emissions alone (without feedbacks), demonstrates a 2.4ºC
eventual warming if atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing continues at today's levels: "Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C.")
This paper cites a risk range of up to 4.3°C as the commitment. All the components for the runaway scenario that James Hansen speaks of are
now operant at 0.8ºC. Abrupt runaway warming adding an additional 1ºC per year is a possibility that could start anytime. This understanding
comes from ice core studies of the Younger Dryas abrupt global temperature change event .
The end of the Younger Dryas,
about 11,500 years ago, was particularly abrupt. In Greenland, temperatures rose 10°C (18°F) in a
decade or less. Acknowledging that this rate of warming can occur from an ice age low, as
terrifying as it is, is most critical to our understanding of abrupt, non-linear climate change. With
the precautionary principle in mind, we must assume that such a non-linear response is more likely
today than in the past, due to the continued pouring of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
during an already warm period (Shakhova et al., Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere
from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf). The Arctic Shelf is, in fact, already perforated.
This means it has already reached – or gone beyond – the thaw point. The large underwater permafrost "lid" over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf,
specifically, is perforated and methane continues to escape into the atmosphere (Shakhova et al.). This
may cause a 12-times
increase of the modern atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming. In 2008,
Shakhova and Semiletov warned that it is "highly possible for abrupt release at any time." These findings represent the closest humanity has ever
approached to a literal doomsday scenario. Venting methane represents the single most catastrophically dangerous effect of global warming to all
life on Earth. In addition to ocean warming, Shakhova is of the belief that there are other factors also contributing to the melting of the hydrates,
for example, the flow from rivers. [22] The
rise in the atmospheric concentration of methane had stabilized
since year 2000, however, since 2006 it has been increasing again. Climate scientists have
determined that these methane emissions are carbon feedback, meaning, the warming of the planet
is causing the planet to emit more methane. Methane carbon feedbacks place us firmly on the brink
of runaway global warming and climate disruption. The most feared effect of global warming has commenced. Methane
carbon feedbacks are adding to the heat radiation of global warming by increasing the atmospheric methane concentration. Furthermore, the
increase in the concentration of atmospheric methane continues to accelerate. The release of methane into the atmosphere is the greatest threat to
date in the realm of our current climate emergency. Yet, scientists, in general, have been remarkably silent on even this issue, the gravest of risks.
Some scientists have now taken the position that they cannot make any claims that this is a "new" threat without knowing whether the methane
hydrate emissions are new or not. However, this position makes no difference to our plight and perhaps even makes the threat worse, as methane
gas escaping from methane hydrates today will increase, most likely rapidly, as the global temperature increases. 250 Plumes of Dire Warning
Sonar data from the West Svalbard continental margin recorded in 2008 have shown the presence of methane bubbles emanating from the seabed
up-slope, from the upper limit of the methane hydrate stability zone. In the same area, the ocean has warmed by 1°C during the last 30 years. In
2009, it was discovered that 250 plumes of methane gas bubbles had erupted from the seabed off the West Svalbard continental margin
(Westbrook et al.). Ronald Cohen of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, DC, says it is a striking result: "What's amazing is that
they see such enormous quantities of methane." The methane being released from hydrates in the 600-square-kilometre area studied likely adds
up to 27 kilotonnes a year, which suggests the entire hydrate deposit around Svalbard could be releasing 20 megatonnes a year. If this process
becomes widespread along Arctic continental margins, tens of teragrams of methane per year could be released into the ocean. At present, most
of the methane reacts with the oxygen in the water to form carbon dioxide, another greenhouse gas.
In sea water, this forms carbonic acid, which adds to further ocean acidification. The Arctic ocean
water is acidifying rapidly. Research indicates that 10% of the Arctic Ocean will be corrosively
acidic by 2018; 50% by 2050; and 100% by 2100. In October 2009, Professor Jean-Pierre Gattuso,
of France's Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, said: "Over the whole planet, there will
be a threefold increase in the average acidity of the oceans, which is unprecedented during the past
20 million years." To date, almost none of the Arctic (or anywhere else) has been surveyed in a way
that might detect methane releases like the Svalbard releases. Two things are certain: the two
shelves – the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the West Svalbard continental shelf – are in motion to
emit a massive amount of methane; and the IPCC has omitted methane feedbacks, the most
dangerous aspect of climate change, from reports and models. Shakhova's studies have been critical in understanding
the dire urgency we have before us. Prior to Shakhova's findings, scientists long feared that this scenario could happen, generating huge positive
feedbacks in the enhanced greenhouse effect from GHG emissions, but assumed methane escaping into the atmosphere was not a possibility for at
least another century. This delay-in-release theory, now proven to be mistaken, was based upon scientists' assumptions and their models with
minimal evidence. This is just one example of why we must stop modelling when we are already acutely aware we are in the greatest emergency
our species has ever faced. Models, based on future predictions (which have already proven to be dangerous, optimistic and incorrect –
minimizing our sense of an emergency), enable a society and state governments to deny our current reality, effectively eradicating humanity's
possibility for survival. Sergei Zimov, a scientist studying climate change in Russia's Arctic for 30 years, fears that as the permafrost thaws and as
the organic matter in it becomes exposed to the air, global warming predictions will have to be drastically accelerated, even beyond some of the
most pessimistic forecasts. Zimov: The thawing permafrost "will lead to a type of global warming which will be impossible to stop…. The
deposits of organic matter in these soils are so gigantic that they dwarf global oil reserves." Zimov continues: "US government statistics show
mankind emits about 7 billion tons of carbon a year. Permafrost areas hold 500 billion tons of carbon, which can fast turn into greenhouse
gases…. If you don't stop emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere ... the Kyoto Protocol (an international pact aimed at reducing
greenhouse emissions) will seem like childish prattle." The video below, filmed in January 2008, shows thin ice overlying the methane seep at
Atqasuk, which is bubbling like boiling water. (2010: 2:43) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KlBev6N5m8&feature=player_embedded It is
critical to reiterate how abrupt shifts in climate can occur in very short timescales. Ice core evidence is key. Greenland ice core records show that
during the last glacial stage (100,000 – 11,500 years ago) the temperature there alternately warmed and cooled several times by more than 10ºC.
This was accompanied by major climate change around the northern hemisphere, felt particularly strongly in the North Atlantic region. Each
warm and cold episode took just a few decades to develop. Most of Earth's extinction events have now been linked to extreme climate changes
and for most of these extinction events, methane hydrates have been cited as playing a role. Today, we CAN reduce our CO2 emissions from
fossil fuels, whereas we WILL NOT BE ABLE TO reduce methane emissions once they begin to accelerate once they begin to accelerate from
carbon feedback. Such massive natural forces will take over and change our world and be absolutely out of our control. Such an event will
initially likely result in the melting of the Antarctic icecap, which would raise sea levels by 50 metres, as well as, completely change the climates
of the world. It is therefore beyond obvious that today's 0.8ºC temperature rise is ALREADY too high to keep the Arctic permafrost safe.
Therefore, in order to avoid the possible catastrophic methane feedback that could be imminent, we must prepare to cool down the planet
immediately, instead of continuing to aim for a deadly 2ºC target – recently revised upwards by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
from a dangerous level to an extremely dangerous level. In the following video titled Methane Hydrates: Natural Hazard or Natural Resource?
(2008 | 53:08) Renowned geochemist Miriam Kastner discusses whether or not methane hydrates are a hazard to climate change. 19:20 into the
video Kastner shows fascinating film footage which clearly demonstrates the extreme instability of hydrates. Ultimately, melting and venting
hydrates will, on our current emissions path, prove to be deadly. Ultimately, drilling hydrates to burn further gas will also prove to be deadly. The
only solution is to declare a planetary state of emergency – to stop burning all fossil fuels. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSTm6cZjO14
Compromised Science | Serving the Propaganda Machine "It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends upon his not
understanding it." — Upton Sinclair The role of scientists in explaining the implications of non-decision is critical, yet scientists have been
remarkably reticent to publicly criticize what they have privately slammed as totally unacceptable and inadequate targets. The few scientists who
are vocal run the risk of being effectively ignored, ridiculed or silenced due to corporate-controlled media and the psychological manipulation of
society. 11 January 2011: In an interview with Dr. Peter Carter, a founding director of the Canadian Association of Physicians for the
Environment,Carter accurately conveys our dire reality: "Tragically, with few noted individual exceptions (such as John Holdren, James Hansen,
Hans Shellnhuber, Kevin Anderson, Andrew Glikson), the climate scientists, and all the science organizations, are sticking to their policy of what
is, in effect, dangerous climate change denial. They avoid talking 'dangerous climate change' or warning of climate catastrophe. To eradicate any
doubt on accelerating climate dangers, climate scientists would have to say and explain how today's unavoidable amount and duration of global
warming, climate disruption, and ocean acidification are now catastrophically dangerous to our survival and to most of life." Carter continues:
"According to Stephen Schneider, 'The
IPCC does not determine risks and does not define what would
constitute dangerous interference with the climate system. The IPCC says that defining the
dangerous climate change is a value judgment that only the policymakers can make.' (The late Stephen
Schneider's website is here and he discusses the issue in this paper.) The scientists in general are sticking to this policy. National and international
climate policy discussions are being based formally on the absurd assumption that dangerous climate interference is still some time in the future
that can still be avoided, so there is no emergency. James Hansen asked the climate scientists to support his 2008 public statement that 'We really
have reached a point of a planetary emergency,' but none have. With no prospect of rapid drastic emissions reductions, we all need to be most
gravely concerned for the future of humanity and all life. We need climate scientists to understand that public and formal silence on the
catastrophic climate change dangers (or risks) to the huge, most-vulnerable human populations, to the future of civilization and to humanity is, in
effect, a powerful value judgement." It is beyond reckless for scientists to continue to insist on, thus wait for, absolute proof. Society must not
accept this. Rather, we must demand action based on the risk of unparalleled magnitude, which embraces the precautionary principle. We
continue to ignore methane in the same way that world governments and scientists continue to ignore the global food security crisis we will face
if temperatures are allowed to further increase. The
universally recognized risk science formula is Risk =
Probability x Magnitude. This is a precautionary formula when it comes to large damaging
magnitudes. The IPCC assesses probability for the policy makers, but does not include magnitude.
To make matters worse, the probability results are derived from computer models invented by the climate scientists. The probability, is in fact,
only as reliable as the models, and the data fed into the models. The models are all experimental – the computer runs are called experiments.
Therefore global heating due to methane hydrate presents a massive risk of planetary catastrophe – today. We are in an abrupt global greenhouse
gas heating event right now, with the atmospheric concentration of global warming greenhouse gases being increased thousands of times faster
than any previous heating event in the history of planet Earth. By waiting for "absolute" proof, we are effectively guaranteeing that we will have
no chance in hell at preventing runaway climate change once these irreversible feedbacks are fully operation .
To wait until these
feedbacks are ABSOLUTELY underway just so we can say there is no scientific "uncertainty" is
nothing less than progenycidal negligence. Imagine if you will, that it is 1 a.m. You are awake in
your home. You look outside only to see, to your horror, that your neighbour's house is on fire.
Maybe they are sleeping – should you wake them up? Maybe they are enjoying a glass of wine and
would rather not be disturbed. What should you do? What if they don't have any house insurance?
Should you wait until the next day and check with them first? What if their children become
frightened by the fire? You don’t know with 100% certainty that it will keep burning. It may go out
on its own. Maybe it's best not to tell them. Of course this is ridiculous. You would call the emergency number immediately
because you recognized an emergency. So why are we not screaming "Emergency!" at the top of our lungs, when our entire planet is burning up
and all of our children are in it? All of the climate change assessment projections are based on computer models developed by climate science
modellers. If the models lack reliable data the projections cannot be relied on. All of the model results have wide ranges of uncertainty. The 2007
IPCC Report used the statistical mean of these wide ranges of results, up to the boundary of a 90 percent ‘confidence level’. The range is assumed
to achieve practically full scientific certainty, however, a wide range has to mean a high level of uncertainty. This clever playing with numbers
practice is in violation of the precautionary principle (adopted by the UNFCCC in 1992) which affirms that where there is a threat of climate
change, the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent the threat. Had the IPCC respected
this principle from the adoption and onset, they would have explicitly considered risks of higher temperatures and greater impacts above the
mean, up to and outside the boundary of a 90 percent confidence level. They would have explicitly considered, thus included, dynamical melting
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, and non–linear responses to drivers of climate change. This would have provided the world a far more
accurate measure of the climate crisis, a crisis allowed to escalate into the emergency situation that we now find ourselves in today. The Earth's
temperature has increased 0.8ºC. While CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 34 percent, methane gas concentrations have
skyrocketed – increasing a staggering 158 percent. Yet, the scientists essentially disregard methane as a major issue. Couple this with the fact that
methane is 72 to 100 times more heat trapping than CO2 in the short term and the phrase "don't scare the horses" comes to mind. The climate
system turns out to be far more sensitive than the IPCC has assumed for their global temperature projection models and their global climate
change assessment. All of the climate change assessment depends on the value calculated and used for the ‘climate sensitivity’. The climate
sensitivity is provided from the results of computer models. All of the models give an immense range - particularly for the upper most sensitive
range. 19 October 2010, Rolf Schuttenhelm: "Climate sensitivity is a term used for the expected atmospheric temperature rise for a doubling of
CO2 concentrations. Combining all the relevant atmospheric research published up to the end of 2004, the IPCC in its 2007 Fourth Assessment
Report (WG1, chapter 2) reached the conclusion climate sensitivity would be between 2 and 4.5 degrees Centigrade, with a 3C rise as ‘best
estimate’. World leading climate researchers of NASA (James Hansen) and for instance the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Hans
Joachim Schellnhuber) have since argued true sensitivity could be twice as high when including slow climate feedbacks, like Arctic methane,
deep-sea methane or increased biodegradation of ecosystems, leading to further CO2 emissions, all following an initial (industrial) CO2 induced
temperature rise. These slow feedbacks lead to the runaway warming scenarios with exponential damage. Somewhere over the climate politicsfilled years of 2008 and 2009 the world lost track of the basics of climate science. While the new insights and publications on slow-acting climate
feedbacks were worrisome to many – others hoped for comfort in denying the basic triggering factor, the climate effects of high anthropogenic
CO2 emissions, mostly due to the abundant use of fossil fuels. Although the IPCC report clearly mentions fast-acting climate feedbacks, like
water vapour and ice albedo, as important contributors to expected temperature rises, somehow we allowed a flawed focus to develop on the
molecule of CO2 itself. Meanwhile we risk losing focus on the slow climate feedbacks. If new climate research proves the findings (‘adding slow
feedbacks creates another doubling of warming’ -> 6 degrees (PDF)) of people like Hansen and Schellnhuber right, then communicators of
climate science should really consider to once again extent the definition of true climate sensitivity – or establish a new term that clearly includes
the (long-term) CO2-temperature responses of other Earth systems than solely the atmosphere, like oceans and terrestrial biosphere. " Amongst
the most obvious of climate change facts is that abrupt greenhouse gas heat energy situation is happening today, yet scientists are currently doing
research into the "probability of abrupt climate change." If this is not a complete reflection of our self delusion and denialism – I'm not certain
what is. Just consider the well known IPCC 10,000 year graphs of temperature and radiative forcing. The increase in today's temperature, CO2
and methane is a vertical line. This abrupt rate of heating has never happened before – indeed we are warming over 10 times faster than the ice
core record, and this is will become 25 times faster by 2100. Greenhouse gas levels now exceed anything seen over the past 800,000 years or
more. Scientists, after telling us for decades we must adapt to a catastrophic 2ºC, are now producing papers on how we will have to adapt to 4ºC.
This is modeling madness. By doing this the scientists are exposing humanity to a huge risk of global climate catastrophe. This madness is
effectively preventing any possibility of an emergency climate response. Modelling for future catastrophe, is effectively distracting us from the
climate emergency we face, dead on, today. Further madness has made its presence known. As methane hydrate melting and venting accelerates –
securing our path to extinction – scientists have now begun to do modelling on the hydrates. Recently, it appears that leading methane scientists,
who have been instrumental in sounding the methane alarm (based on their observations that the warming Arctic is driving the thaw and methane
venting due to anthropogenic climate change), are being pressured by other scientists to provide "absolute proof" that the thaw and venting have
not been occurring for reasons other than human-made warming. If my daughter is pushed off the playground equipment, causing a broken arm –
her arm needs a cast. Urgently. It makes no difference who pushed her. Given the unparalleled enormous risks, the precautionary principle should
certainly take precedence. The risk formula can be applied for such a colossal catastrophic impact, even when there is too little data to calculate a
reliable probability. The grim reality coupled with common sense tells us unequivocally that the Arctic temperature is only going one way –
upward. Therefore, at some point it will hit the thaw point (if it has not done so already) and no modeling is necessary to understand this simple
fact. "Catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out." That is a main statement when pouring over scientific papers on methane. It reads like a
disclaimer along with the cautious language of possible, could, and other select language that allows us to continue denying our reality. Today,
the majority of published climate science is all framed to allow the fossil fuel industry to not only survive, but continue growing and globalizing.
When reviewing scientific papers, one cannot find any references that address the absolute necessity of stopping fossil fuel combustion. The most
important component of stabilizing our planet's climate simply is not addressed. It is both revealing and ominous that proponents of the
exploitation, which includes scientists, are suggesting that we now have to extract the methane to make the hydrates safe. Extracting the methane
is unavoidably dangerous as this would depressurize the local environment. The
gas extracted from the methane hydrates
will be burned to drive the fossil fuel world economy – emitting huge amounts of CO2 in the
process. All of the IPCC scenarios currently used, accept that our world economies are dependent
and locked into fossil fuels - thereby legitimizing the fossil fuel industry.
2NC—Alternative Causes
Alt Cause: Livestock emit a considerable portion of global GHGs: Methane, CO2,
Nitrogen
FAO 6 The food and agricultural organization of the United Nations is responsible for examining and
appropriating action related to the aforementioned industries.
<ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/010/a0701e/a0701e.pdf>
Climate change: trends and prospects
Anthropogenic climate change has recently become a well established fact and the resulting impact
on the environment is already being observed. The greenhouse effect is a key mechanism of temperature regulation.
Without it, the average temperature of the earth’s surface would not be 15ºC but -6ºC. The earth returns energy received from the sun back to
space by reflection of light and by emission of heat. A part of the heat flow is absorbed by so-called green- house gases, trapping it in the
atmosphere. The
principal greenhouse gases involved in this process include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ),
methane (CH 4 ) nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and chlorofluorocarbons. Since the beginning of the industrial period
anthropogenic emissions have led to an increase in concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere, resulting in global warming. The average
temperature of the earth’s surface has risen by 0.6 degrees Celsius since the late 1800s. Recent
projections suggest that average
temperature could increase by another 1.4 to 5.8 °C by 2100 (UNFCCC, 2005). Even under the
most optimistic scenario, the increase in average temperatures will be larger than any century-long
trend in the last 10 000 years of the present-day interglacial period. Ice-core- based climate records allow
comparison of the current situation with that of preceding inter- glacial periods. The Antarctic Vostok ice core, encapsulating
the last 420000 years of Earth history, shows an overall remarkable correlation between
greenhouse gases and climate over the four glacial-interglacial cycles (naturally recurring at intervals of
approximately 100 000 years). These findings were recently confirmed by the Antarctic Dome C ice core, the deepest ever drilled, representing
some 740 000 years - the longest, continuous, annual climate record extracted from the ice (EPICA, 2004). This confirms that periods of CO 2
build-up have most likely contributed to the major global warming transitions at the earth’s surface. The results also show that human activities
have resulted in present-day concentrations of CO 2 and CH 4 that are unprecedented over the last 650 000 years of earth history (Siegenthaler et
al ., 2005). Global warming is expected to result in changes in weather patterns, including an increase in global precipitation and changes in the
severity or frequency of extreme events such as severe storms, floods and droughts. Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the
environment. In general, the faster the changes, the greater will be the risk of damage exceeding our ability to cope with the consequences. Mean
sea level is expected to rise by 9–88 cm by 2100, causing flooding of low- lying areas and other damage. Climatic zones could shift poleward and
uphill, disrupting for- ests, deserts, rangelands and other unmanaged ecosystems. As a result, many ecosystems will decline or become
fragmented and individual species could become extinct (IPCC, 2001a). The levels and impacts of these changes will vary considerably by
region. Societies will face new risks and pressures. Food security is unlike- ly to be threatened at the global level, but some regions are likely to
suffer yield declines of major crops and some may experience food shortages and hunger. Water resources will be affected as precipitation and
evaporation patterns change around the world. Physical infrastructure will be damaged, particularly by the rise in sea-level and extreme weather
events. Economic activity-Cracked clay soil – Tunisia 1970 © FAO/7398/F. BOTTS 81
Livestock’s role in climate change and
air pollution ties, human settlements, and human health will experience many direct and indirect
effects. The poor and disadvantaged, and more generally the less advanced countries are the most vulnerable to the negative consequences of
climate change because of their weak capacity to develop coping mechanisms. Global agriculture will face many challenges over the coming
decades and climate change will complicate these. A warming of more than 2.5°C could reduce global food supplies and contribute to higher food
prices. The impact on crop yields and productivity will vary consider- ably. Some agricultural regions, especially in the tropics and subtropics,
will be threatened by climate change, while others, mainly in temper- ate or higher latitudes, may benefit. The livestock sector will also be
affected. Live- stock products would become costlier if agricultural disruption leads to higher grain prices. In Box 3.1 The Kyoto Protocol In
1995 the UNFCCC member countries began negotiations on a protocol – an international agreement linked to the existing treaty. The text of the
so-called Kyoto Protocol was adopted unanimously in 1997; it entered into force on 16 February 2005. The Protocol’s major feature is that it has
mandatory targets on greenhouse-gas emissions for those of the world’s leading economies that have accepted it. These targets range from 8
percent below to 10 percent above the countries’ individual 1990 emissions levels “with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases
by at least 5 per- cent below existing 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012”. In almost all cases – even those set at 10 percent
above 1990 levels – the limits call for significant reductions in currently projected emissions. To compensate for the sting of these binding
targets, the agreement offers flexibility in how countries may meet their targets. For example, they may partially compensate for their industrial,
energy and other emissions by increasing “sinks” such as forests, which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either on their own
territories or in other countries. Or they may pay for foreign projects that result in greenhouse-gas cuts. Several mechanisms have been
established for the purpose of emissions trading. The Protocol allows countries that have unused emissions units to sell their excess capacity to
countries that are over their targets. This so-called “carbon market” is both flexible and realistic. Countries not meeting their commitments will be
able to “buy” compliance but the price may be steep. Trades and sales will deal not only with direct greenhouse gas emissions. Countries will get
credit for reducing greenhouse gas totals by planting or expanding forests (“removal units”) and for carrying out “joint implementation projects”
with other developed countries – paying for projects that reduce emissions in other industrialized countries. Credits earned this way may be
bought and sold in the emissions market or “banked” for future use. The Protocol also makes provision for a “clean development mechanism,”
which allows industrial- ized countries to pay for projects in poorer nations to cut or avoid emissions. They are then awarded credits that can be
applied to meeting their own emissions targets. The recipient countries benefit from free infusions of advanced technology that for example allow
their factories or electrical generat- ing plants to operate more efficiently – and hence at lower costs and higher profits. The atmosphere benefits
because future emissions are lower than they would have been otherwise. Source: UNFCCC (2005). 82 Livestock’s long shadow general,
intensively managed livestock systems will be easier to adapt to climate change than will crop systems. Pastoral systems may not adapt so
readily. Pastoral communities tend to adopt new methods and technologies more slowly, and livestock depend on the productiv- ity and quality of
rangelands, some of which may be adversely affected by climate change. In addition, extensive livestock systems are more susceptible to changes
in the severity and distri- bution of livestock diseases and parasites, which may result from global warming. As the human origin of the
greenhouse effect became clear, and the gas emitting factors were identified, international mechanisms were cre- ated to help understand and
address the issue. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) started a process of international negotiations in
1992 to specifically address the greenhouse effect. Its objective is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere within an
ecologically and economically acceptable timeframe. It also encourages research and monitoring of other possible environmental impacts, and of
atmospheric chemistry. Through its legally binding Kyoto Protocol, the UNFCCC focuses on the direct warming impact of the main
anthropogenic emissions (see Box 3.1). This
chapter concentrates on describing the contribution of livestock
production to these emissions. Concurrently it provides a critical assessment of mitigation strategies such as emissions reduction
measures related to changes in livestock farming practices. The direct warming impact is highest for carbon dioxide
simply because its concentration and the emitted quantities are much higher than that of the other
gases. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. Once emitted, methane remains in the
atmosphere for approximately 9–15 years. Methane is about 21 times more effective in trapping
heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over a 100- year period. Atmospheric concentrations of CH 4 have
increased by about 150 percent since pre-industrial times (Table 3.1), although the rate of increase has been declining recently. It is emitted from
a variety of natural and human-influenced sources. The latter include landfills, natural gas and petroleum systems, agricultural activities, coal
mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment and certain industrial process (US-EPA, 2005). The IPCC has estimated that
slightly more than half of the current CH 4 flux to the atmosphere is anthropogenic (IPCC, 2001b). Total global anthropogenic CH 4 is estimated to be 320 million tonnes CH 4 /yr, i.e. 240 million tonnes of carbon per year (van Aardenne et al ., 2001). This total is comparable to the
total from natural sources (Olivier et al ., 2002). Nitrous
oxide, a third greenhouse gas with important direct
warming potential, is present in the atmosphere in extremely small amounts. However, it is 296
times more effective than car- bon dioxide in trapping heat and has a very long atmospheric
lifetime (114 years). Livestock activities emit considerable amounts of these three gases. Direct
emissions from live- stock come from the respiratory process of all animals in the form of carbon
dioxide. Rumi- nants, and to a minor extent also monogastrics,. G w Ps are a simple way to compare the potency of
various greenhouse gases. The G w P of a gas depends not only on the capacity to absorb and reemit radiation but also on how long the effect
lasts. Gas molecules gradually dissociate or react with other atmospheric compounds to form new molecules with different radiative properties.
Source: wri (2005); 2005 CO 2 : NOAA (2006); G w Ps: i PCC (2001b). 83 Livestock’s
role in climate change and air
pollution emit methane as part of their digestive process, which involves microbial fermentation of
fibrous feeds. Animal manure also emits gases such as methane, nitrous oxides, ammonia and
carbon dioxide, depending on the way they are produced (solid, liquid) and managed (collection,
storage, spreading). Livestock also affect the carbon balance of land used for pasture or feedcrops,
and thus indirectly contribute to releasing large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. The same happens when forest is cleared for pastures. In addition, greenhouse gases are emitted from fossil fuel used in the production process, from feed
production to processing and marketing of livestock products. Some of the indirect effects are difficult to estimate, as land use related emissions
vary widely, depending on biophysical factors as soil, vegetation and climate as well as on human practices.
…
3.2.1 Carbon emissions from feed production Fossil
fuel use in manufacturing fertilizer may emit 41 million
tonnes of CO 2 per year Nitrogen is essential to plant and animal life. Only a limited number of processes, such as lightning or fixation
by rhizobia, can convert it into reactive form for direct use by plants and animals. This shortage of fixed nitrogen has
historically posed natural limits to food production and hence to human populations. However,
since the third decade of the twentieth century, the Haber-Bosch process has provided a solution.
Using extremely high pressures, plus a catalyst composed mostly of iron and other critical
chemicals, it became the primary procedure responsible for the production of chemical fertilizer.
Today, the process is used to produce about 100 million tonnes of artificial nitrogenous fertilizer
per year. Roughly 1 percent of the world’s energy is used for it (Smith, 2002). As discussed in Chapter 2, a large share of the world’s crop
production is fed to animals, either directly or as agro-industrial by-products. Mineral N fertilizer is applied to much of the corresponding
cropland, especially in the case of high-energy crops such as maize, used in the production of concentrate feed. The
gaseous emissions
caused by fertilizer manufacturing should, therefore, be considered among the emissions for which
the animal food chain is responsible. About 97 percent of nitrogen fertilizers are derived from synthetically produced ammonia
via the Haber-Bosch process. For economic and environmental reasons, natural gas is the fuel of choice in this
manufacturing process today. Natural gas is expected to account for about one-third of global
energy use in 2020, compared with only one-fifth in the mid-1990s (IFA, 2002). The ammonia industry used about 5
percent of natural gas consumption in the mid-1990s. How- ever, ammonia production can use a wide range of energy sources. When oil and gas
supplies eventually dwindle, coal can be used, and coal reserves are sufficient for well over 200 years at current production levels. In fact 60
percent of China’s nitrogen fertilizer production is currently based on coal (IFA, 2002). China is an atypi- cal case: not only is its N fertilizer
production based on coal, but it is mostly produced in small and medium-sized, relatively energy-inefficient, plants. Here energy consumption per
unit of N can run 20 to 25 percent higher than in plants of more recent design. One study conducted by the Chinese government estimated that
energy consumption per unit of output for small plants was more than 76 percent higher than for large plants (Price et al ., 2000). Before
estimating the CO 2 emissions related to this energy consumption, we should try to quantify the use
of fertilizer in the animal food chain. Combining fertilizer use by crop for the year 1997 (FAO, 2002) with the fraction of these
crops used for feed in major N fertilizer con- suming countries (FAO, 2003) shows that animal production accounts for a very substantial share of
this consumption. Table 3.3 gives examples for selected countries. 4 87 Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution Except for the
Western European countries, production and consumption of chemical fertil- izer is increasing in these countries. This high proportion of N
fertilizer going to animal feed is largely owing to maize, which covers large areas in temperate and tropical climates and demands high doses of
nitrogen fertilizer. More than half of total maize production is used as feed. Very large amounts of N fertilizer are used for maize and other
animal feed, especially in nitrogen deficit areas such as North America, Southeast Asia and Western Europe. In fact maize is the crop highest in
nitrogen fertilizer consumption in 18 of the 66 maize producing countries ana- lysed (FAO, 2002). In 41 of these 66 countries maize is among the
first three crops in terms of nitrogen fertilizer consumption. The projected production of maize in these countries show that its area generally
expands at a rate inferior to that of production, suggesting an enhanced yield, brought about by an increase in fertilizer consumption (FAO, 2003).
Other feedcrops are also important consumers of chemical N fertilizer. Grains like barley and sorghum receive
large amounts of nitrogen fertilizer. Despite the fact that some oil crops are associated with N fixing organisms themselves (see Section 3.3.1),
their intensive production often makes use of nitrogen fertilizer. Such crops predominantly used as animal feed, including rapeseed, soybean and
sunflower, garner considerable amounts of N-fertilizer: 20 percent of Argentina’s total N fertilizer consumption is applied to production of such
crops, 110 000 tonnes of N-fertilizer (for soybean alone) in Brazil and over 1.3 million tonnes in China. In addition, in a number of countries
even grasslands receive a considerable amount of N fertilizer. The countries of Table 3.3 together represent the vast majority of the world’s
nitrogen fertil- izer use for feed production, adding a total of about 14 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizer per year into the animal food chain.
When the Com- monwealth of Independent States and Oceania are added, the total rounds to around 20 percent of the annual 80 million tonnes of
N fertilizer consumed worldwide. Adding in the fertilizer use that can be attributed to by-products other than oilcakes, in particular brans, may
well take the total up to some 25 percent. On the basis of these figures, the correspond- ing emission of carbon dioxide can be esti- mated. Energy
requirement in modern natural gas-based systems varies between 33 and 44 gigajoules (GJ) per tonne of ammonia. Tak- ing into consideration
additional energy use in 4 The estimates are based on the assumption of a uniform share of fertilized area in both food and feed production. This
may lead to a conservative estimate, considering the large- scale, intensive production of feedcrops in these countries compared to the significant
contribution of small-scale, low input production to food supply. In addition, it should be noted that these estimates do not consider the
significant use of by-products other than oil cakes (brans, starch rich products, molasses, etc.). These products add to the economic value of the
primary commodity, which is why some of the fertilizer applied to the original crop should be attributed to them. Table 3.3 Chemical fertilizer N
used for feed and pastures in select ed countries Country Share of Absolute tot al N consumption amount (percentage) (1 000 tonnes/year) USA
51 4 697 China 16 2 998 France* 52 1 317 Germany* 62 1 247 Canada 55 897 UK* 70 887 Brazil 40 678 Spain 42 491 Mexico 20 263 Turkey
17 262 Argentina 29 126 * Countries with a considerable amount of N fertilized grassland. Source: Based on FAO (2002; 2003). 88 Livestock’s
long shadow packaging, transport and application of fertil- izer (estimated to represent an additional cost of at least 10 percent; Helsel, 1992), an
upper limit of 40 GJ per tonne has been applied here. As mentioned before, energy use in the case of China is considered to be some 25 percent
higher, i.e. 50 GJ per tonne of ammonia. Taking
the IPCC emission factors for coal in China (26 tonnes of
carbon per terajoule) and for natural gas elsewhere (17 tonnes C/TJ), estimating car- bon 100
percent oxidized (officially estimated to vary between 98 and 99 percent) and applying the CO 2 /C
molecular weight ratio, this results in an estimated annual emission of CO 2 of more than 40 million
tonnes (Table 3.4) at this initial stage of the animal food chain. On-farm fossil fuel use may emit 90 million
tonnes CO 2 per year. The share of energy consumption accounted for by the different stages of livestock production varies widely,
depending on the intensity of livestock production (Sainz, 2003). In modern production systems the bulk of the energy is spent on production of
feed, whether forage for ruminants or concentrate feed for poultry or pigs. As well as the energy used for fertilizer, important amounts of energy
are also spent on seed, herbicides/pesticides, diesel for machinery (for land preparation, harvesting, transport) and electricity (irrigation pumps,
drying, heating, etc.). On-farm use of fossil fuel by intensive systems produces CO 2 emissions probably even larger than those from chemical N
fertilizer for feed. Sainz (2003) estimated that, during the 1980s, a typical farm in the United States spent some 35 megajoules (MJ) of energy per
kilogram of carcass for chicken, 46 MJ for pigs and 51 MJ for beef, of which amounts 80 to 87 percent was spent for production. 5 A large share
of this is in the form of electricity, producing much lower emissions on an energy equivalent basis than the direct use of fossil sources for energy.
The share of electricity is larger for intensive monogastrics production (mainly for heating, cooling and ven- Table 3.4 Co 2 emissions from the
burning of fossil fuel to produce nitrogen fertilizer for feedcrops in selected countries Country Absolute amount Energy use Emission factor
Emitted CO 2 of chemical N fertilizer per tonnes fertilizer (1 000 tonnes N fertilizer) (GJ/tonnes N fertilizer) (tonnes C/TJ) (1 000
tonnes/year) Argentina 126 40 17 314 Brazil 678 40 17 1 690 Mexico 263 40 17 656 Turkey 262 40 17 653 China 2 998 50 26 14 290 Spain 491
40 17 1 224 UK* 887 40 17 2 212 France* 1 317 40 17 3 284 Germany* 1 247 40 17 3 109 Canada 897 40 17 2 237 USA 4 697 40 17
11 711 Total 14 million tonnes 41 million tonnes * i ncludes a considerable amount of N fertilized grassland. Source: FAO (2002;
2003); i PCC (1997). 5 As opposed to post-harvest processing, transportation, stor- age and preparation. Production includes
energy use for feed production and transport. 89 Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution tilation), which though also uses larger
amounts of fossil fuel in feed transportation. However, more than half the energy expenditure during livestock production is for feed production
(near- ly all in the case of intensive beef operations). We have already considered the contribution of fertilizer production to the energy input for
feed: in intensive systems, the combined energy-use for seed and herbicide/pesticide production and fossil fuel for machinery generally exceeds
that for fertilizer production. There are some cases where feed produc- tion does not account for the biggest share of fossil energy use. Dairy
farms are an important example, as illustrated by the case of Minnesota dairy operators. Electricity is their main form of energy use. In contrast,
for major staple crop farmers in the state, diesel is the dominant form of on-farm energy use, resulting in much higher CO 2 emissions (Ryan and
Tiffany, 1998, presenting data for 1995). On this basis, we can suggest that the bulk of Minnesota’s on-farm CO 2 emissions from energy use are
also related to feed production, and exceed the emissions associated with N fertilizer use. The average maize fertilizer application (150 kg N per
hectare for maize in the United States) results in emis- sions for Minnesota maize of about one mil- lion tonnes of CO 2 , compared with 1.26
million tonnes of CO 2 from on-farm energy use for corn production (see Table 3.5). At least half the CO 2 emissions of the two dominant
commodities and CO 2 sources in Minnesota (maize and soybean) can be attributed to the (intensive) livestock sec- tor. Taken together, feed
production and pig and dairy operations make the livestock sector by far the largest source of agricultural CO 2 emissions in Minnesota. In the
absence of similar estimates represen- tative of other world regions it remains impos- sible to provide a reliable quantification of the global CO 2
emissions that can be attributed to on farm fossil fuel-use by the livestock sector. The energy intensity of production as well as the source of this
energy vary widely. A rough indica- tion of the fossil fuel use related emissions from intensive systems can, nevertheless, be obtained by
supposing that the expected lower energy need for feed production at lower latitudes (lower energy need for corn drying for example) and the
Table 3.5 On-farm energy use for agriculture in Minnesota, United States Commodity Minnesota Crop area Diesel LPG Electricity Directly
ranking (10 3 km 2 ) (1 000 m 3 ~ (1 000 m 3 ~ (10 6 kWh ~ emitted within USA head (10 6 ) 2.65–10 3 2.30–10 3 288 CO 2 tonnes (10 6 )
tonnes CO 2 ) tonnes CO 2 ) tonnes CO 2 ) (10 3 tonnes) Corn 4 27.1 238 242 235 1 255 Soybeans 3 23.5 166 16 160 523 w heat 3 9.1 62 6.8 67
199 Dairy (tonnes) 5 4.3 * 47 38 367 318 Swine 3 4.85 59 23 230 275 Beef 12 0.95 17 6 46 72 Turkeys (tonnes) 2 40 14 76 50 226 Sugar beets 1
1.7 46 6 45 149 Sweet corn/peas 1 0.9 9 – 5 25 Note: r eported nine commodities dominate Minnesota’s agricultural output and, by extension, the
state’s agricultural energy use. r elated CO 2 emissions based on efficiency and emission factors from the United States’ Common r eporting
Format report submitted to the UNFCCC in 2005. Source: r yan and Tiffany (1998). 90 Livestock’s long shadow elsewhere, often lower level of
mechanization, are overall compensated by a lower energy use efficiency and a lower share of relatively low CO 2 emitting sources (natural gas
and electricity). Minnesota figures can then be combined with global feed production and livestock populations in intensive systems. The
resulting estimate for maize only is of a magnitude similar to the emis- sions from manufacturing N fertilizer for use on feedcrops. As
a
conservative estimate, we may suggest that CO 2 emissions induced by on-farm fossil fuel use for
feed production may be 50 percent higher than that from feed-dedicated N fertilizer production, i.e.
some 60 million tonnes CO 2 globally. To this we must add farm emissions related directly to
livestock rearing, which we may estimate at roughly 30 million tonnes of CO 2 (this figure is derived by
applying Minnesota’s figures to the global total of intensively-man- aged livestock populations, assuming that lower energy use for heating at
lower latitudes is counterbalanced by lower energy efficiency and higher ventilation requirements). On-farm
fossil fuel use induced
emissions in extensive systems sourcing their feed mainly from natural grasslands or crop residues
can be expected to be low or even negligible in compari- son to the above estimate. This is
confirmed by the fact that there are large areas in developing countries, particularly in Africa and
Asia, where animals are an important source of draught power, which could be considered as a CO
2 emis- sion avoiding practice. It has been estimated that animal traction covered about half the
total area cultivated in the developing countries in 1992 (Delgado et al ., 1999). There are no more
recent estimates and it can be assumed that this share is decreasing quickly in areas with rapid
mechanization, such as China or parts of India. However, draught animal power remains an
important form of energy, substituting for fossil fuel combustion in many parts of the world, and in
some areas, notably in West Africa, is on the increase. Livestock-related land use changes may emit
2.4 billion tonnes of CO 2 per year Land use in the various parts of the world is continually
changing, usually in response to competitive demand between users. Changes in land use have an
impact in carbon fluxes, and many of the land-use changes involve livestock, either occupying land
(as pasture or arable land for feedcrops) or releasing land for other pur- poses, when for example,
marginal pasture land is converted to forest. A forest contains more carbon than does a field of
annual crops or pasture, and so when forests are harvested, or worse, burned, large amounts of
carbon are released from the veg- etation and soil to the atmosphere. The net reduction in carbon
stocks is not simply equal to the net CO 2 flux from the cleared area. Reality is more complex:
forest clearing can produce a complex pattern of net fluxes that change direc- tion over time (IPCC
guidelines). The calculation of carbon fluxes owing to forest conversion is, in many ways, the most
complex of the emissions inventory components. Estimates of emissions from forest clearing vary
because of multiple uncertainties: annual forest clearing rates, the fate of the cleared land, the
amounts of carbon contained in different ecosystems, the modes by which CO 2 is released (e.g.,
burning or decay), Example of deforestation and shifting cultivation on steep hillside. Destruction
of forests causes disastrous soil erosion in a few years – Thailand 1979 © FAO/10460/F. B OTTS 91
Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution and the amounts of carbon released from soils
when they are disturbed. Responses of biological systems vary over different time-scales. For
example, biomass burning occurs within less than one year, while the decomposition of wood may
take a decade, and loss of soil carbon may continue for several decades or even centuries. The IPCC
(2001b) estimated the average annual flux owing to tropical deforestation for the decade 1980 to
1989 at 1.6±1.0 billion tonnes C as CO 2 (CO 2 -C). Only about 50–60 percent of the carbon
released from forest conversion in any one year was a result of the conversion and subsequent
biomass burning in that year. The remainder were delayed emissions resulting from oxidation of biomass har- vested in previous
years (Houghton, 1991). Clearly, estimating CO 2 emissions from land use and land-use change is far less straightfor- ward than those related to
fossil fuel combus- tion. It is even more difficult to attribute these emissions to a particular production sector such as livestock. However,
livestock’s role in defores- tation is of proven importance in Latin America, the continent suffering the largest net loss of forests and resulting
carbon fluxes. In Chapter 2 Latin America was identified as the region where expansion of pasture and arable land for feedcrops is strongest,
mostly at the expense of forest area. The LEAD study by Wassenaar et al ., (2006) and Chapter 2 showed that most of the cleared area ends up as
pasture and identified large areas where livestock ranching is probably a primary motive for clearing. Even if these final land uses were only one
reason among many others that led to the forest clearing, animal pro- duction is certainly one of the driving forces of deforestation. The
conversion of forest into pas- ture releases considerable amounts of carbon into the atmosphere, particularly when the area is not logged but
simply burned. Cleared patches may go through several changes of land-use type. Over the 2000–2010 period, the pasture areas in Latin America
are projected to expand int o forest by an annual average of 2.4 million hectares – equivalent to some 65 percent of expected deforestation. If we
also assume that at least half the cropland expansion into forest in Bolivia and Brazil can be attributed to provid- ing feed for the livestock sector,
this results in an additional annual deforestation for livestock of over 0.5 million hectares – giving a total for pastures plus feedcrop land, of some
3 million hectares per year. In view of this, and of worldwide trends in extensive livestock production and in cropland for feed production
we can realisti- cally estimate that “livestock induced” emissions from deforestation
amount to roughly 2.4 billion tonnes of CO 2 per year. This is based on the somewhat simplified assumption that forests
(Chapter 2),
are completely converted into climatically equiva- lent grasslands and croplands (IPCC 2001b, p. 192), combining changes in carbon density of
both vegetation and soil 6 in the year of change. Though physically incorrect (it takes well over a year to reach this new status because of the
“inherited”, i.e. delayed emissions) the result- ing emission estimate is correct provided the change process is continuous. Other possibly
important, but un-quantified, livestock-related deforestation as reported from for example Argentina (see Box 5.5 in Section 5.3.3) is excluded
from this estimate. In addition to producing CO 2 emissions, the land conversion may also negatively affect other emissions. Mosier et al . (2004)
for example noted that upon conversion of forest to grazing land, CH 4 oxidation by soil micro-organisms is typically greatly reduced and grazing
lands may even become net sources in situations where soil compaction from cattle traffic limits gas diffusion. 6 The most recent estimates
provided by this source are 194 and 122 tonnes of carbon per hectare in tropical forest, respectively for plants and soil, as opposed to 29 and 90
for tropical grassland and 3 and 122 for cropland. 92 Livestock’s long shadow Livestock-related releases from cultivated soils may total 28
million tonnes CO 2 per year Soils are the largest carbon reservoir of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The estimated total a m ount of carbon stored in
soils is about 1 100 to 1 600 billion tonnes (Sundquist, 1993), more than twice the carbon in living vegetation (560 billion tonnes) or in the
atmosphere (750 billion tonnes). Hence even relatively small changes in carbon stored in the soil could make a significant impact on the global
carbon balance (Rice, 1999). Carbon stored in soils is the balance between the input of dead plant material and losses due to decomposition and
mineralization processes. Under aerobic conditions, most of the carbon entering the soil is unstable and therefore quick- ly respired back to the
atmosphere. Generally, less than 1 percent of the 55 billion tonnes of C entering the soil each year accumulates in more stable fractions with long
mean residence times. Human disturbance can speed up decomposi- tion and mineralization. On the North American Great Plains, it has been
estimated that approxi- mately 50 percent of the soil organic carbon has been lost over the past 50 to 100 years of culti- vation, through burning,
volatilization, erosion, harvest or grazing (SCOPE 21, 1982). Similar losses have taken place in less than ten years after deforestation in tropical
areas (Nye and Greenland, 1964). Most of these losses occur at the original conversion of natural cover into managed land. Further soil carbon
losses can be induced by management practices. Under appropriate management practices (such as zero tillage) agricultural soils can serve as a
carbon sink and may increasingly do so in future (see Section 3.5.1). Currently, however, their role as carbon sinks is globally insignificant. As
described in Chapter 2, a very large share of the production of coarse grains and oil crops in temperate regions is destined for feed use. The vast
majority of the corresponding area is under large-scale intensive management, dominated by conventional tillage practices that gradually lower
the soil organic carbon content and produce significant CO 2 emissions. Given the complexity of emissions from land use and land- use changes,
it is not possible to make a global estimation at an acceptable level of precision. Order-of-magnitude indications can be made by using an average
loss rate from soil in a rather temperate climate with moderate to low organic matter content that is somewhere between the loss rate reported for
zero and conventional till- age: Assuming
an annual loss rate of 100 kg CO 2 per hectare per year (Sauvé et al
., 2000: covering temperate brown soil CO 2 loss, and excluding emissions originating from crop
residues), the approximately 1.8 million km 2 of arable land cul- tivated with maize, wheat and
soybean for feed would add an annual CO 2 flux of some 18 million tonnes to the livestock balance.
Tropical soils have lower average carbon con- tent (IPCC 2001b, p. 192), and therefore lower emissions. On the other hand, the considerable
expansion of large-scale feedcropping, not only into uncultivated areas, but also into previ- ous pastureland or subsistence cropping, may increase
CO 2 emission. In addition, practices such as soil liming contribute to emissions. Soil liming is a common practice in more inten- sively
cultivated tropical areas because of soil acidity. Brazil 7 for example estimated its CO 2 emissions owing to soil liming at 8.99 million tonnes in
1994, and these have most probably increased since than. To the extent that these emissions concern cropland for feed production they should be
attributed to the livestock sec- tor. Often only crop residues and by-products are used for feeding, in which case a share of emissions
corresponding to the value fraction of the commodity 8 (Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004) should be attributed to livestock. Comparing 7 Brazil’s
first national communication to the UNFCCC, 2004. 8 The value fraction of a product is the ratio of the market value of the product to the
aggregated market value of all the products obtained from the primary crop. 93 Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution reported
emissions from liming from national communications of various tropical countries to the UNFCCC with the importance of feed pro- duction in
those countries shows that the global share of liming related emissions attributable to livestock is in the order of magnitude of Brazil’s emission
(0.01 billion tonnes CO 2 ).
Another way livestock contributes to gas emis- sions from cropland is through
methane emis- sions from rice cultivation, globally recognized as an important source of methane.
Much of the methane emissions from rice fields are of animal origin, because the soil bacteria are to a large extent “fed” with animal manure, an
important fertilizer source (Verburg, Hugo and van der Gon, 2001). Together with the type of flooding management, the type of fertilization is
the most important factor controlling methane emissions from rice cultivated areas. Organic fertilizers lead to higher emissions than mineral
fertilizers. Khalil and Shearer (2005) argue that over the last two decades China achieved a substantial reduc- tion of annual methane emissions
from rice cultivation – from some 30 million tonnes per year to perhaps less than 10 million tonnes per year – mainly by replacing organic
fertilizer with nitrogen-based fertilizers. However, this change can affect other gaseous emissions in the oppo- site way. As nitrous oxide
emissions from rice fields increase, when artificial N fertilizers are used, as do carbon dioxide emissions from Chi- na’s flourishing charcoalbased nitrogen fertil- izer industry (see preceding section). Given that it is impossible to provide even a rough estimate of livestock’s contribution
to methane emissions from rice cultivation, this is not further consid- ered in the global quantification. Releases from livestock-induced
desertification of pastures may total 100 million tonnes CO 2 per year Livestock also play a role in desertification (see Chapters 2 and 4).
Where desertification is occurring, degradation often results in reduced productivity or reduced vegetation cover, which produce a change in the
carbon and nutrient stocks and cycling of the system. This seems to result in a small reduction in aboveground C stocks and a slight decline in C
fixation. Despite the small, sometimes undetectable changes in aboveground biomass, total soil carbon usu- ally declines. A recent study by
Asner, Borghi and Ojeda, (2003) in Argentina also found that desertification resulted in little change in woody cover, but there was a 25 to 80
percent decline in soil organic carbon in areas with long-term grazing. Soil erosion accounts for part of this loss, but the majority stems from the
non- renewal of decaying organic matter stocks, i.e. there is a significant net emission of CO 2 . Lal (2001) estimated the carbon loss as a r esult
of desertification.
Assuming a loss of 8 - 12 tonnes of soil carbon per hectare (Swift et al ., 1994) on a
desertified land area of 1 billion hect- ares (UNEP, 1991), the total historic loss would amount to 8–
12 billion tonnes of soil carbon. Similarly, degradation of aboveground vegeta- tion has led to an
estimated carbon loss of 10–16 tonnes per hectare – a historic total of 10–16 billion tonnes. Thus,
the total C loss as a con- sequenc e of desertification may be 18–28 billion tonnes of carbon (FAO,
2004b). Livestock’s con- tribution to this total is difficult to estimate, but it is undoubtedly high: livestock occupies about two-thirds of the global
dry land area, and the rate of desertification has been estimated to be higher under pasture than under other land uses (3.2 million hectares per
year against 2.5 million hectares per year for cropland, UNEP, 1991). Considering only soil carbon loss (i.e. about 10 tonnes of carbon per
hectare), pasture
desertifi- cation-induced oxidation of carbon would result in CO 2 emissions in the
order of 100 million tonnes of CO 2 per year. Another, largely unknown, influence on the fate of soil carbon is the feedback
effect of climate change. In higher latitude cropland zones, global warming is expected to increase yields by virtue of longer growing seasons and
CO 2 fertilization (Cantagallo, Chimenti and Hall, 1997; Travasso et al ., 1999). At the same time, however, global 94 Livestock’s long shadow
Box 3.2 The many climatic faces of the burning of tropical savannah Burning is common in establishing and managing of pastures, tropical rain
forests and savannah regions and grasslands worldwide (Crutzen and Andreae, 1990; Reich et al ., 2001). Fire removes ungrazed grass, straw and
litter, stimulates fresh growth, and can control the density of woody plants (trees and shrubs). As many grass species are more fire-tolerant than
tree species (especially seedlings and saplings), burning can determine the balance between grass cover and ligneous vegetation. Fires stimulate
the growth of perennial grasses in savan- nahs and provide nutritious re-growth for livestock. Controlled burning prevents uncontrolled, and possibly, more destructive fires and consumes the combustible lower layer at an appropriate humidity stage. Burning involves little or no cost. It is
also used at a small scale to maintain biodiversity (wild- life habitats) in protected areas. The environmental consequences of rangeland and
grassland fires depend on the environmental context and conditions of application. Controlled burning in tropical savannah areas has signifi- cant
environmental impact, because of the large area concerned and the relatively low level of control. Large areas of savannah in the humid and
subhumid tropics are burned every year for rangeland management. In 2000, burning affected some 4 million km 2 . More than two-thirds of this
occurred in the tropics and sub-tropics (Tansey et al ., 2004). Globally about three quarters of this burning took place outside forests. Savannah
burning represented some 85 percent of the area burned in Latin American fires 2000, 60 percent in Africa, nearly 80 percent in Australia.
Usually, savannah burning is not considered to result in net CO 2 emissions, since emitted amounts of carbon dioxide released in burning are recap- tured in grass re-growth. As well as CO 2 , biomass burning releases important amounts of other glob- ally relevant trace gases (NO x , CO,
and CH 4 ) and aerosols (Crutzen and Andreae, 1990; Scholes and Andreae, 2000). Climate effects include the forma- tion of photochemical
smog, hydrocarbons, and NO x . Many of the emitted elements lead to the pro- duction of tropospheric ozone (Vet, 1995; Crutzen and
Goldammer, 1993), which is another important greenhouse gas influencing the atmosphere’s oxi- dizing capacity, while bromine, released in significant amounts from savannah fires, decreases stratospheric ozone (Vet, 1995; ADB, 2001). Smoke plumes may be redistributed locally,
transported throughout the lower troposphere, or entrained in large-scale circulation patterns in the mid and upper troposphere. Often fires in
convection areas take the elements high into the atmosphere, creating increased potential for cli- mate change. Satellite observations have found
large areas with high O 3 and CO levels over Africa, South America and the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans (Thompson et al ., 2001).
Aerosols produced by the burning of pasture biomass dominate the atmospheric concentra- tion of aerosols over the Amazon basin and Africa
(Scholes and Andreae, 2000; Artaxo et al ., 2002). Concentrations of aerosol particles are highly sea- sonal. An obvious peak in the dry (burning)
season, which contributes to cooling both through increas- ing atmospheric scattering of incoming light and the supply of cloud condensation
nuclei. High con- centrations of cloud condensation nuclei from the burning of biomass stimulate rainfall production and affect large-scale
climate dynamics (Andreae and Crutzen, 1997). h unter set fire to forest areas to drive out a species of rodent that will be killed for food. h
erdsmen and hunters together benefit from the results. © FAO/14185/ r . F A i DUTT i 95 Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution
warming may also accelerate decomposition of carbon already stored in soils (Jenkinson,1991; MacDonald, Randlett and Zalc, 1999; Niklinska,
Maryanski and Laskowski, 1999; Scholes et al ., 1999). Although much work remains to be done in quantifying the CO 2 fertilization effect in
crop- land, van Ginkel, Whitmore and Gorissen, (1999) estimate the magnitude of this effect (at current rates of increase of CO 2 in the
atmosphere) at a net absorption of 0.036 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year in temperate grassland, even after the effect of rising temperature
on decom- position is deducted. Recent research indicates that the magnitude of the temperature rise on the acceleration of decay may be
stronger, with already very significant net losses over the last decades in temperate regions (Bellamy et al ., 2005; Schulze and Freibauer, 2005).
Both sce- narios may prove true, resulting in a shift of car- bon from soils to vegetation – i.e. a shift towards more fragile ecosystems, as found
currently in more tropical regions … 3.3 Livestock in the nitrogen cycle Nitrogen is an essential element for life and plays a central role in the
organization and func- tioning of the world’s ecosystems. In many ter- restrial and aquatic ecosystems, the availability of nitrogen is a key factor
determining the nature and diversity of plant life, the population dynam- ics of both grazing animals and their predators, and vital ecological
processes such as plant productivity and the cycling of carbon and soil minerals (Vitousek et al ., 1997). The natural carbon cycle is characterized
by Table 3.10 Energy use for processing agricultural products in Minnesota, in United States in 1995 Commodity Production 1 Diesel Natural gas
Electricity Emitted CO 2 (10 6 tonnes) (1000 m 3 ) (10 6 m 3 ) (10 6 kWh) (10 3 tonnes) Corn 22.2 41 54 48 226 Soybeans 6.4 23 278 196 648 w
heat 2.7 19 – 125 86 Dairy 4.3 36 207 162 537 Swine 0.9 7 21 75 80 Beef 0.7 2.5 15 55 51 Turkeys 0.4 1.8 10 36 34 Sugar beets 2 7.4 19 125 68
309 Sweet corn/peas 1.0 6 8 29 40 1 Commodities: unshelled corn ears, milk, live animal weight. 51 percent of milk is made into cheese, 35
percent is dried, and 14 percent is used as liquid for bottling. 2 Beet processing required an additional 440 thousand tonnes of coal. 1 000 m 3
diesel ~ 2.65 • 10 3 tonnes CO 2 ; 10 6 m 3 natural gas ~ 1.91 • 10 3 tonnes CO 2 ; 10 6 k w h ~ 288 tonnes CO 2 Source: r yan and Tiffany
(1998). See also table 3.5. r elated CO 2 emissions based on efficiency and emission factors from the United States’ Common r eporting Format
report submitted to the UNFCCC in 2005. 102 Livestock’s long shadow large fossil terrestrial and aquatic pools, and an atmospheric form that is
easily assimilated by plants. The nitrogen cycle is quite different: diatomic nitrogen (N 2 ) in the atmosphere is the sole stable (and very large)
pool, making up some 78 percent of the atmosphere (see Figure 3.2). Although nitrogen is required by all organ- isms to survive and grow, this
pool is largely unavailable to them under natural conditions. For most organisms this nutrient is supplied via the tissues of living and dead
organisms, which is why many ecosystems of the world are limited by nitrogen. The few organisms able to assimilate atmos- pheric N 2 are the
basis of the natural N cycle of modest intensity (relative to that of the C cycle), resulting in the creation of dynamic pools in organic matter and
aquatic resources. Generally put, nitrogen is removed from the atmosphere Source: Porter and Botkin (1999). Internal cycling 1 200 110 36 20 30
130 Denitrification Oceans 6 000 Atmosphere 4 000 000 000 Terrestrial vegetation 3 500 Soils organic matter 9 500 Denitrification Soil erosion,
runoff and river flow 140 Biological fixation Biological fixation Human activities 100 Industrial fixation Fixation in lightning Figure 3.2 The
nitrogen cycle 103 Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution by soil micro-organisms, such as the nitrogen- fixing bacteria that
colonize the roots of legumi- nous plants. These bacteria convert it into forms (so-called reactive nitrogen, Nr, in essence all N compounds other
than N 2 ) such as ammonia (NH 3 ), which can then be used by the plants. This process is called nitrogen fixation. Meanwhile, other microorganisms remove nitrogen from the soil and put it back into the atmosphere. This process, called denitrification, returns N to the atmosphere in
various forms, primarily N 2 . In addition, denitrification produces the green- house gas nitrous oxide. The human impact on the nitrogen cycle
The modest capability of natural ecosystems to drive the N cycle constituted a major hurdle in satisfying the food needs of growing popu- lations
(Galloway et al ., 2004). The historical increases of legume, rice and soybean cultiva- tion increased N fixation, but the needs of large populations
could only be met after the invention of the Haber-Bosch process in the first decade of the twentieth century, to transform N 2 into min- eral
fertilizers (see section on feed sourcing). In view of the modest natural cycling intensity, additions of chemical N fertilizers had dramatic effects.
It has been estimated that humans have already doubled the natural rate of nitrogen entering the land-based nitrogen cycle and this rate is
continuing to grow (Vitousek et al ., 1997). Synthetic fertilizers now provide about 40 per- cent of all the nitrogen taken up by crops (Smil, 2001).
Unfortunately crop, and especially animal, production uses this additional resource at a rather low efficiency of about 50 percent. The rest is
estimated to enter the so-called nitrogen cascade (Galloway et al ., 2003) and is transport- ed downstream or downwind where the nitrogen can
have a sequence of effects on ecosystems and people. Excessive nitrogen additions can pollute ecosystems and alter both their ecologi- cal
functioning and the living communities they support. What poses a problem to the atmosphere is that human intervention in the nitrogen cycle
has changed the balance of N species in the atmosphere and other reservoirs. Non-reactive molecular nitrogen is neither a greenhouse gas nor an
air polluter. However, human activities return much of it in the form of reactive nitrogen species which either is a greenhouse gas or an air
polluter. Nitrous oxide is very persistent in the atmosphere where it may last for up to 150 years. In addition to its role in global warm- ing, N 2 O
is also involved in the depletion of the ozone layer, which protects the biosphere from the harmful effects of solar ultraviolet radiation (Bolin et al
., 1981). Doubling the concentration of N 2 O in the atmosphere would result in an esti- mated 10 percent decrease in the ozone layer, which in
turn would increase the ultraviolet radiation reaching the earth by 20 percent. The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide has steadily
increased since the begin- ning of the industrial era and is now 16 percent (46 ppb) larger than in 1750 (IPCC, 2001b). Natural sources of N 2 O
are estimated to emit approximately 10 million tonnes N/yr, with soils contributing about 65 percent and oceans about 30 percent. According to
recent estimates, N 2 O emissions from anthropogenic sources (agri- culture, biomass burning, industrial activities and livestock management)
amount to approxi- mately 7–8 million tonnes N/yr (van Aardenne et al ., 2001; Mosier et al ., 2004). According to these estimates, 70 percent of
this results from agriculture, both crop and livestock production. Anthropogenic NO emissions also increased substantially. Although it is not a
greenhouse gas (and, therefore, is not further considered in this section), NO is involved in the formation process of ozone, which is a greenhouse
gas. Though quickly re-deposited (hours to days), annual atmospheric emissions of air-polluting ammonia (NH 3 ) increased from some 18.8 million tonnes N at the end of the 19th century to about 56.7 million tonnes in the early 1990s. They are projected to rise to 116 million tonnes N/yr
by 2050, giving rise to considerable air pol- 104 Livestock’s long shadow lution in a number of world regions (Galloway et al ., 2004). This
would be almost entirely caused by food production and particularly by animal manure. Besides increased fertilizer use and agricul- tural nitrogen
fixation, the enhanced N 2 O emis- sions from agricultural and natural ecosystems are also caused by increasing N deposition (mainly of
ammonia). Whereas terrestrial eco- systems in the northern hemisphere are limited by nitrogen, tropical ecosystems, currently an important
source of N 2 O (and NO), are often limited by phosphorus. Nitrogen fertilizer inputs into these phosphorus-limited ecosystems gen- erate NO
and N 2 O fluxes that are 10 to 100 times greater than the same fertilizer addition to N- limited ecosystems (Hall and Matson, 1999). Soil N 2 O
emissions are also regulated by temperature and soil moisture and so are like- ly to respond to climate changes (Frolking et al ., 1998). In fact,
chemical processes involving nitrous oxides are extremely complex (Mosier et al ., 2004). Nitrification – the oxidation of ammo- nia to nitrite and
then nitrate – occurs in essen- tially all terrestrial, aquatic and sedimentary ecosystems and is accomplished by specialized bacteria.
Denitrification, the microbial reduction of nitrate or nitrite to gaseous nitrogen with NO and N 2 O as intermediate reduction compounds, is
performed by a diverse and also widely distrib- uted group of aerobic, heterotrophic bacteria. The main use of ammonia today is in fertil- izers,
produced from non-reactive molecular nitrogen, part of which directly volatilizes. The largest atmospheric ammonia emission overall comes from
the decay of organic matter in soils. The quantity of ammonia that actually escapes from soils into the atmosphere is uncertain; but is estimated at
around 50 million tonnes per year (Chameides and Perdue, 1997). As
much as 23 million tonnes N of ammonia are
produced each year by domesticated animals, while wild animals contribute roughly 3 million
tonnes N/yr and human waste adds 2 million tonnes N/yr. Ammonia dissolves easily in water, and is
very reactive with acid compounds. Therefore, once in the atmosphere, ammonia is absorbed by
water and reacts with acids to form salts. These salts are deposited again on the soil within hours to
days (Galloway et al ., 2003) and they in turn can have an impact on ecosystems. 3.3.1 Nitrogen emissions
from feed-related fertilizer The estimated global NH 3 volatilization loss from synthetic N fertilizer use in the mid-1990s totalled about 11
million tonnes N per year. Of this 0.27 million tonnes emanated from fertil- ized grasslands, 8.7 million tonnes from rainfed crops and 2.3 million
tonnes from wetland rice (FAO/IFA, 2001), estimating emissions in 1995). Most of this occurs in the developing countries (8.6 million tonnes N),
nearly half of which in China. Average N losses as ammonia from synthetic fertilizer use is more than twice as high (18 percent) in developing
countries than in developed and transition countries (7 percent). Most of this difference in loss rates is resulting from higher temperatures and the
dominant use of urea and ammonium bicarbonate in the developing world. In developing countries about 50 percent of the nitrogen fertilizer used
is in the form of urea (FAO/IFA, 2001). Bouwman et al . (1997) estimate that NH 3 emission losses from urea may be 25 percent in tropical
regions and 15 percent in temperate climates. In addition, NH 3 emissions may be higher in wetland rice cultivation than in dryland fields. In
China, 40–50 percent of the nitrogen fertilizer used is in the form of ammoni- um bicarbonate, which is highly volatile. The NH 3 loss from
ammonium bicarbonate may be 30 percent on average in the tropics and 20 percent in temperate zones. By contrast, the NH 3 loss from injected
anhydrous ammonia, widely used in the United States, is only 4 percent (Bouwman et al ., 1997). What share of direct emissions from fertilizer
105 Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution can we attribute to livestock? As we have seen, a large share of the world’s crop
production is fed to animals and mineral fertilizer is applied to much of the corresponding cropland. Intensively managed grasslands also receive
a significant portion of mineral fertilizer. In
Section 3.2.1 we estimated that 20 to 25 percent of mineral fertilizer
use (about 20 million tonnes N) can be ascribed to feed production for the livestock sector.
Assuming that the low loss rates of an important “fertilizer for feed” user such as the United States
is compensated by high loss rates in South and East Asia, the average mineral fer- tilizer NH 3
volatilization loss rate of 14 percent (FAO/IFA, 2001) can be applied. On this basis, livestock
production can be considered respon- sible for a global NH 3 volatilization from mineral fertilizer
of 3.1 million tonnes NH 3 -N (tonnes of nitrogen in ammonia form) per year. Turning now to N 2 O, the level
of emissions from mineral N fertilizer application depends on the mode and timing of fertilizer applica- tion. N 2 O emissions for major world
regions can be estimated using the FAO/IFA (2001) model. Nitrous oxide emissions amount to 1.25 ± 1 percent of the nitrogen applied. This
estimate is the average for all fertilizer types, as proposed by Bouwman (1995) and adopted by IPCC (1997). Emission rates also vary from one
fertilizer type to another. The FAO/IFA (2001) calculations result in a mineral fertilizer N 2 O-N loss rate of 1 percent. Under the same
assumptions as for NH 3 above, livestock production can be consid- ered responsible for a global N 2 O emission from mineral fertilizer of 0.2
million tonne N 2 O-N per year. There is also N 2 O emission from leguminous feedcrops, even though they do not generally receive N fertilizer
because the rhizobia in their root nodules fix nitrogen that can be used by the plant. Studies have demonstrated that such crops show N 2 O
emissions of the same level as those of fertilized non-leguminous crops. Con-
sidering the world area of soybean and
pulses, and the share of production used for feed, gives a total of some 75 million hectares in 2002
(FAO, 2006b). This would amount to another 0.2 mil- lion tonnes of N 2 O-N per year. Adding alfalfa and
clovers would probably about double this figure, although there are no global estimates of their cultivated areas. Russelle and Birr (2004) for
example show that soybean and alfalfa together harvest some 2.9 million tonne of fixed N in the Mississippi River Basin, with the N 2 fixation
rate of alfalfa being nearly twice as high as that of soybean (see also a review in Smil, 1999). It seems therefore probable that livestock production can be considered responsible for a total N 2 O-N emission from soils under leguminous crops exceeding 0.5 million tonnes per year and a
total emission from feedcropping exceeding 0.7 million tonne N 2 O-N. 3.3.2 Emissions from aquatic sources following chemical fertilizer use
The above direct cropland emissions represent some 10 to 15 percent of the anthropogenic, added reactive N (mineral fertilizer and cultiva- tioninduced biological nitrogen fixation – BNF). Unfortunately, a very large share of the remain- ing N is not incorporated in the harvested plant
tissue nor stored in the soil. Net changes in the organically bound nitrogen pool of the world’s agricultural soils are very small and may be positiv
e or negative (plus or minus 4 million tonnes N, see Smil, 1999). Soils in some regions have significant gains whereas poorly managed soils in
other regions suffer large losses. As Von Liebig noted back in 1840 (cited in Smil, 2002) one of agriculture’s main objectives is to produce
digestible N, so cropping aims to accu- mulate as much N as possible in the harvested product. But even modern agriculture involves substantial
losses – N efficiency in global crop pr oduction is estimated to be only 50 or 60 per- cent (Smil, 1999; van der Hoek, 1998). Rework- ing these
estimates to express efficiency as the amount of N harvested from the world’s cropland 106 Livestock’s long shadow with respect to the annual N
input, 10 results in an even lower efficiency of some 40 percent. This result is affected by animal manure, which has a relatively high loss rate as
compared to mineral fertilizer (see following section). Mineral fertilizer is more completely absorbed, depend- ing on the fertilizer application
rate and the type of mineral fertilizer. The most efficient combina- tion reported absorbed nearly 70 percent. Min- eral fertilizer absorption is
typically somewhat above 50 percent in Europe, while the rates for Asian rice are 30 to 35 percent (Smil, 1999). The rest of the N is lost. Most of
the N losses are not directly emitted to the atmosphere, but enter the N cascade through water. The share of losses originating from fertilized
cropland is not easily identified. Smil (1999) attempted to derive a global estimate of N losses from fertilized cropland. He estimates that
globally, in the mid- 1990, some 37 million tonnes N were exported from cropland through nitrate leaching (17 mil- lion tonnes N) and soil
erosion (20 tonnes N). In addition, a fraction of the volatilized ammonia from mineral fertilizer N (11 million tonnes N yr -1 ) finally also reaches
the surface waters after deposition (some 3 million tonnes N yr -1 ). This N is gradually denitrified in subsequent reservoirs of the nitrogen
cascade (Galloway et al ., 2003). The resulting enrichment of aquatic ecosystems with reactive N results in emissions not only of N 2 , but also
nitrous oxide. Galloway et al . (2004) estimate the total anthropogenic N 2 O emission from aquatic reservoirs to equal some 1.5 million tonnes
N, originating from a total of some 59 million tonnes N transported to inland waters and coastal areas. Feed and forage pro- duction induces a
loss of N to aquatic sources of some 8 to 10 million tonnes yr -1 if one assumes such losses to be in line with N-fertilization shares of feed and
forage production (some 20 - 25 percent of the world total, see carbon sec- tion). Applying the overall rate of anthropogenic aquatic N 2 O
emissions (1.5/59) to the livestock induced mineral fertilizer N loss to aquatic reservoirs results in a livestock induced emis- sions fr om aquatic
sources of around 0.2 million tonnes N N 2 O. 3.3.3 Wasting of nitrogen in the livestock production chain The efficiency of N assimilation by
crops leaves much to be desired. To a large extent this low efficiency is owing to management factors, such as the often excessive quantity of
fertilizers applied, as well as the form and timing of appli- cations. Optimizing these parameters can result in an efficiency level as high as 70
percent. The remaining 30 percent can be viewed as inherent (unavoidable) loss. The efficiency of N assimilation by livestock is even lower.
There are two essential differences between N in animal production and N in crop N use the: • o verall assimilation efficiency is much lower; and
• w asting induced by non-optimal inputs is gener ally lower. As a result the inherent N assimilation effi- ciency of animal products is low leading
to high N wasting under all circumstances. N enters livestock through feed. Animal feeds c ont ain 10 to 40 grams of N per kilogram of dry
matter. Various
estimates show livestock’s low 10 Crop production, as defined by van der Hoek,
includes pas- tures and grass. Reducing inputs and outputs of the N bal- ance to reflect only the
cropland balance (animal manure N down to 20 million tonnes N as in FAO/IFA, 2001; Smil, 1999,
and removing the consumed grass N output) results in a crop pr oduct assimilation efficiency of 38
percent. Smil’s definition of cropland N recovery rates is less broad, but it does include forage crops. Forage crops contain many leguminous
spe- cies and, therefore, improve the overall efficiency. Removing them from the balance appears to have only a minor effect. Though, Smil
expresses recovery as the N contained in the entire plant tissue. A substantial part of this is not harvested (he estimates crop residues to contain 25
million tonnes N): some of this is lost upon decomposition after crop harvest and some (14 million tonnes N) re-enters the following crop- ping
cycle. Removing crop residues from the balance gives a harvested crop N recovery efficiency of 60/155 million tonnes N= 38 percent. 107
Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution efficiency in assimilating N from feed. Aggregat- ing all livestock species, Smil (1999)
estimated that in the mid-1990s livestock excreted some 75 million tonnes N. Van der Hoek (1998) esti- mates that globally livestock products
contained some 12 million tonnes N in 1994. These figures suggest an underlying assimilation efficiency of only 14 percent. Considering only
crop-fed ani- mal production, Smil (2002) calculated a similar average efficiency of 15 percent (33 million tonnes N from feed, forage and
residues pro- ducing 5 million tonnes of animal food N). NRC (2003) estimated the United States livestock sector’s N assimilation efficiency also
at 15 per c ent (0.9 over 5.9 million tonne N). According to the IPCC (1997), the retention of nitrogen in animal products, i.e., milk, meat, wool
and eggs, generally ranges from about 5 to 20 percent of the total nitrogen intake. This apparent homo- geneity of estimations may well hide
different causes such as low feed quality in semi-arid grazing systems and excessively N-rich diets in intensive systems. Efficiency varies
considerably between different animal species and products. According to esti- mates by Van der Hoek (1998) global N efficiency i s around 20
percent for pigs and 34 percent for poultry. For the United States, Smil (2002) cal- culated the protein conversion efficiency of dairy products at
40 percent, while that of beef cattle is only 5 percent. The low N efficiency of cattle on a global scale is partly inherent, given they are large
animals with long gestation periods and a high basal metabolic rate. But the global cattle herd also comprises a large draught animal population
whose task is to provide energy, not protein. For example, a decade ago cattle and horses still accounted for 25 percent of China’s agricultural
energy consumption (Mengjie and Yi, 1996). In addition, in many areas of the world, grazing animals are fed at bare maintenance level,
consuming without producing much. As a result, a huge amount of N is returned to the environment through animal excretions. However, not all
this excreted N is wasted. When used as organic fertilizer, or directly deposited on grassland or crop fields, some of the reac- tive N re-enters the
crop production cycle. This is particularly the case for ruminants, therefore, their contribution to overall N loss to the envi- ronment is less than
their contribution to N in animal waste. Smil (2002) also noted that “this (ruminant assimilation: ed.) inefficiency is irrel- evant in broader N
terms as long as the animals (ruminants: ed.) are totally grass-fed, or raised primarily on crop and food processing residues (ranging from straw to
bran and from oilseed cakes to grapefruit rinds) that are indigestible or unpalatable for non-ruminant species. Such cattle feeding calls for no, or
minimal – because some pastures are fertilized – additional inputs of fertilizer-N. Any society that would put a pre- mium on reducing N losses in
agro-ecosystems would thus produce only those two kinds of beef. In contrast, beef production has the greatest impact on overall N use when the
animals are fed only concentrates, which are typically mixtures of cereal grains (mostly corn) and soybeans”. Significant emissions of greenhouse
gases to the atmosphere do arise from losses of N from animal waste that contain large amounts of N and have a chemical composition which
induces very high loss rates. For sheep and cattle, faecal excre- t i on is usually about 8 grams of N per kilogram of dry matter consumed,
regardless of the nitrogen content of the feed (Barrow and Lambourne, 1962). The remainder of the nitrogen is excreted in the urine, and as the
nitrogen content of the diet increases, so does the proportion of nitrogen in the urine. In animal production systems where the animal intake of
nitrogen is high, more than half of the nitrogen is excreted as urine. Losses from manure occur at different stages: during storage; shortly after
application or direct deposition to land and losses at later stages. 3.3.4 Nitrogen emissions from stored manure During storage (including the
preceding excre- tion in animal houses) the organically bound 108 Livestock’s long shadow nitrogen in faeces and urine starts to mineralize to
NH 3 /NH 4 + , providing the substrate for nitrifiers and denitrifiers (and hence, eventual production of N 2 O). For the most part, these excreted
N compounds mineralize rapidly. In urine, typically over 70 percent of the nitrogen is present as urea (IPCC, 1997). Uric acid is the dominant
nitrogen compound in poultry excretions. The hydrolysis of both urea and uric acid to NH 3 /NH 4 + is very rapid in urine patches. Considering
first N 2 O emissions, generally only a very small portion of the total nitrogen excreted is converted to N 2 O during handling and storage of
managed waste. As stated above, the waste composition determines its potential mineralization rate, while the actual magni- tude of N 2 O
emissions depend on environmental conditions. For N 2 O emissions to occur, the waste must first be handled aerobically, allowing ammonia or
organic nitrogen to be converted to nitrates and nitrites (nitrification). It must then be handled anaerobically, allowing the nitrates and nitrites to
be reduced to N 2 , with interme- diate production of N 2 O and nitric oxide (NO) (denitrification). These emissions are most likely to occur in
dry waste-handling systems, which have aerobic conditions, and contain pockets of anaerobic conditions owing to saturation. For example, waste
in dry lots is deposited on soil, where it is oxidized to nitrite and nitrate, and has the potential to encounter saturated conditions. There is an
antagonism between emission risks of methane versus nitrous oxide for the different waste storage pathways – trying to reduce meth- ane
emissions may well increase those of N 2 O. The amount of N 2 O released during storage and treatment of animal wastes depends on the system
and duration of waste management and the temperature. Unfortunately, there is not enough quantitative data to establish a rela- tionship between
the degree of aeration and N 2 O emission from slurry during storage and treatment. Moreover, there is a wide range of estimates for the losses.
When expressed in N 2 O N/kg nitrogen in the waste (i.e. the share of N in waste emitted to the atmosphere as nitrous oxide), losses from animal
waste during stor- age range from less than 0.0001 kg N 2 O N/kg N for slurries to more than 0.15 kg N 2 O N/kg nitrogen in the pig waste of
deep-litter stables. Any estimation of global manure emission needs to consider these uncertainties. Expert
judge- ment, based on
existing manure management in different systems and world regions, combined with default IPCC
emission factors (Box 3.3), 11 suggests N 2 O emissions from stored manure equivalent to 0.7
million tonnes N yr -1 . Turning to ammonia, rapid degradation of urea and uric acid to ammonium
leads to very significant N losses through volatilization dur- ing storage and treatment of manure.
While actual emissions are subject to many factors, particularly the manure management system and ambient temperature, most of the NH 3 N
volatilizes during storage (typically about one- third of initially voided N), and before application or discharge. Smil (1999) (Galloway et al .,
2003 used Smil’s paper for estimate) estimate that globally about 10 million tonnes of NH 3 N were lost to the atmosphere from confined
animal feeding operations in the mid 1990s. Although, only a part of all collected manure originates from industrial systems. On
the basis
of the animal population in indus- trial systems (Chapter 2), and their estimated manure
production (IPCC, 1997), the current amount of N in the corresponding animal waste can be
estimated at 10 million tonnes, and the corresponding NH 3 volatilization from stored manure at 2
million tonnes N. Thus, volatilization losses during animal waste 11 See also Annex 3.3. Regional livestock experts provided information
on the relative importance of different waste management systems in each of the region’s production systems through a questionnaire. On the
basis of this infor- mation, waste management and gaseous emission experts from the Recycling of Agricultural, Municipal and Indus- trial
Residues in Agriculture Network (RAMIRAN; available at www.ramiran.net) estimated region and system specific emissions. 109 Livestock’s
role in climate change and air pollution management are not far from those from current synthetic N fertilizer use. On the one hand, this nitrogen
loss reduces emissions from manure once applied to fields; on the other, it gives rise to nitrous oxide emissions further down the “nitrogen
cascade.” 3.3.5 Nitrogen emissions from applied or deposited manure Excreta freshly deposited on land (either applied by mechanical spreading
or direct deposition by the livestock) have high nitrogen loss rates, resulting in substantial ammonia volatiliza- tion. Wide variations in the quality
of forages consumed by ruminants and in environmental conditions make N emissions from manure on pastures difficult to quantify. FAO/IFA
(2001) estimate the N loss via NH 3 volatilization from animal manure, after application, to be 23 per- cent worldwide. Smil (1999) estimates this
loss to be at least 15–20 percent. The IPCC proposes a standard N loss fraction from ammonia volatilization of 20 percent, with- out
differentiating between applied and directly deposited manure. Considering the substantial N loss from volatilization during storage (see
preceding section) the total ammonia volatil- ization following excretion can be estimated at around 40 percent. It seems reasonable to apply this
rate to directly deposited manure (maxi- mum of 60 percent or even 70 percent have been recorded), supposing that the lower share of N in urine
in tropical land-based systems is compen- sated by the higher temperature. We
estimate that in the mid-1990s around 30
million tonnes of N was directly deposited on land by animals in the more extensive systems,
producing an NH 3 volatilization loss of some 12 million tonnes N. 12 Added to this, according to
FAO/IFA (2001) the post application loss of managed animal manure was about 8 million tonnes N,
resulting in a total ammonia volatilization N loss from animal manure on land of around 20 million
tonnes N. These figures have increased over the past decade. Even following the very conservative IPCC ammonia volatilization loss fraction
of 20 percent and subtracting manure used as for fuel results in an estimated NH 3 volatilization loss following manure application/deposition of
some 25 million tonnes N in 2004. Turning now to N 2 O, the soil emissions origi- nating from the remaining external nitrogen input (after
subtraction of ammonia volatiliza- tion) depend on a variety of factors, particularly soil water filled pore space, organic carbon avail- ability, pH,
soil temperature, plant/crop uptake rate and rainfall characteristics (Mosier et al ., 2004). However, because of the complex inter- action and the
highly uncertain resulting N 2 O flux, the revised IPCC guidelines are based on N inputs only, and do not consider soil character- istics. Despite
this uncertainty, manure-induced soil emissions are clearly the largest livestock source of N 2 O worldwide. Emission fluxes from animal grazing
(unmanaged waste, direct emis- sion) and from the use of animal waste as fertil- izer on cropland are of a comparable magni- tude. The grazingderived N 2 O emissions are in the range of 0.002–0.098 kg N 2 O–N/kg nitrogen excreted, whereas the default emission fac- tor used for
fertilizer use is set at 0.0125 kg N 2 O–N/kg nitrogen. Nearly all data pertain to temperate areas and to intensively managed grasslands. Here, the
nitrogen content of dung, and especially urine, are higher than from less intensively managed grasslands in the tropics or subtropics. It is not
known to what extent this compensates for the enhanced emissions in the more phosphorus-limited tropical ecosystems. Emissions from applied
manure must be cal- culated separately from emissions from waste excreted by animals. The FAO/IFA study (2001) estimates the N 2 O loss rate
from applied manure 12 From the estimated total of 75 million tonnes N excreted by livestock we deduce that 33 million tonnes were applied to
intensively used grassland, upland crops and wetland rice (FAO/IFA, 2001) and there were 10 million tonnes of ammo- nia losses during storage.
Use of animal manure as fuel is ignored. 110 Livestock’s long shadow Box 3.3 A new as sessment of nitrous oxide emissions from manure by
production system, species and region The global figures we have cited demonstrate the importance of nitrous oxide emissions from animal
production. However, to set priorities in addressing the problem, we need a more detailed understand- ing of the origin of these emissions, by
evaluating the contribution of different production systems, species and world regions to the global totals. Our assessment, detailed below, is
based on current livestock data and results in a much higher estimate than most recent literature, which is based on data from the mid-1990s. The
live- stock sector has evolved substantially over the last decade. We
estimate a global N excretion of some 135 million
tonnes per year, whereas recent literature (e.g. Galloway et al. , 2003) still cites an estimate of 75
million tonnes yr -1 derived from mid-1990s data. Our estimates of N 2 O emissions from manure and soils are the result
of combining current live- stock production and population data (Groenewold, 2005) with the IPCC methodology (IPCC, 1997). Deriving N 2 O
emissions from manure management requires a knowledge of: • N excretion by livestock type, • the fraction of manure handled in each of the
different manure management systems, and • an emission factor (per kg N excreted) for each of the manure management systems. The results are
summed for each livestock spe- cies within a world region/production system (see Chapter 2) and multiplied by N excretion for that livestock
type to derive the emission factor for N 2 O per head. Table 3.11 Estimated total N 2 O emission from animal excreta in 2004 N 2 O emissions
from manure management, after application/deposition on soil and direct emissions Region/country Dairy cattle Other cattle Buffalo Sheep and
goats Pigs Poultry Total (.................................................. million tonnes per year ..................................................) Sub-Saharan Africa 0.06 0.21
0.00 0.13 0.01 0.02 0.43 Asia e xcluding China and i ndia 0.02 0.14 0.06 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.36 i ndia 0.03 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.32 China 0.01
0.14 0.03 0.10 0.19 0.10 0.58 Centr al and South America 0.08 0.41 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.61 w es t Asia and North Africa 0.02 0.03 0.00 0.09
0.00 0.03 0.17 North Americ a 0.03 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.30 w es t ern Europe 0.06 0.14 0.00 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.36 Oc eania and Japan 0.02
0.08 0.00 0.09 0.01 0.01 0.21 Eas t ern Europe and C i S 0.08 0.10 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.28 Other de veloped 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.06
Total 0.41 1.64 0.17 0.68 0.44 0.36 3.69 Livestock Pr oduction System Grazing 0.11 0.54 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.90 Mixed 0.30 1.02 0.17 0.43
0.33 0.27 2.52 i ndus trial 0.00 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.09 0.27 Source: Own calculations. 111 Livestock’s role in climate change and air pollution
Box 3.3 (cont.) Direct emissions resulting from manure applica- tions (and grazing deposits) to soils were derived using the default emission
factor for N applied to land (0.0125 kg N 2 O-N/kg N). To estimate the amount of N applied to land, N excretion per live- stock type was reduced
allowing for the estimated fraction lost as ammonia and/or nitrogen oxides during housing and storage, the fraction deposited directly by grazing
livestock, and the fraction used as fuel. The results of these calculations (Table 3.11) show that emissions originating from animal manure are
much higher than any other N 2 O emis- sions caused by the livestock sector. In both exten- sive and intensive systems emissions from manure
are dominated by soil emissions. Among soil emis- sions, emissions from manure management are more important. The influence of the
character- istics of different production systems is rather limited. The strong domination of N 2 O emissions by mixed livestock production
systems is related in a rather linear way to the relative numbers of the corresponding animals. Large ruminants are responsible for about half the
total N 2 O emissions from manure. Map 33 (Annex 1) presents the distribution among the world regions of the N 2 O emissions of the different
production systems. at 0.6 percent, 13 i.e. lower than most mineral N fertilizers, resulting in an animal manure soil N 2 O loss in the mid 1990s of
0.2 million tonnes N. Following the IPCC methodology would increase this to 0.3 million tonnes N. Regarding animal waste excreted in pastures,
dung containing approximately 30 million tonnes N was deposited on land in the more extensive systems in the mid-1990s. Applying the IPCC
“overall reasonable average emission factor” (0.02 kg N 2 O–N/kg of nitrogen excreted) to this total results in an animal manure soil N 2 O loss
of 0.6 million tonne N, making a total N 2 O emission of about 0.9 million tonnes N in the mid-1990s. Applying the IPCC methodology to the
current estimate of livestock production system and animal numbers results in an overall “direct” animal manure soil N 2 O loss totalling 1.7 million tonnes N per year. Of this, 0.6 million tonnes derive from grazing systems, 1.0 million tonnes from mixed and 0.1 million tonnes from industrial production systems (see Box 3.3). 3.3.6 Emissions following manure nitrogen losses after application and direct deposition In the mid-1990s,
after losses to the atmosphere during storage and following application and direct deposition, some 25 million tonnes of nitrogen from animal
manure remained available per year for plant uptake in the world’s crop- lands and intensively used grasslands. Uptake depends on the ground
cover: legume/grass mixtures can take up large amount of added N, whereas loss from row crops 14 is generally sub- stantial, and losses from
bare/ploughed soil are much higher still. If we suppose that N losses in grassland, through leaching and erosion, are negligible, and apply the crop
N use efficiency of 40 percent to the remainder of animal manure N applied 13 Expressed as a share of the initially applied amount, without
deduction of the on-site ammonia volatilization, which may explain why the IPCC default is higher. 14 Agricultural crops, such as corn and
soybeans, that are grown in rows. 112 Livestock’s long shadow to cropland, 15 then we are left with some 9 or 10 million tonnes N that mostly
entered the N cascade through water in the mid-1990s. Apply- ing the N 2 O loss rate for subsequent N 2 O emis- sion (Section 3.3.2) gives us an
estimate of an additional emission of some 0.2 million tonne N N 2 O from this channel. N 2 O emissions of similar size can be expected to have
resulted from the re-deposited fraction of the volatilized NH 3 from manure that reached the aquatic reservoirs in the mid-1990s. 16 Total N 2 O
emissions follow- ing N losses would, therefore, have been in the or der of 0. 3 0.4 million tonnes N N 2 O per year in that period. We have
updated these figures for the current livestock production system estimates, using the IPCC methodology for indirect emissions. The current
overall “indirect” animal manure N 2 O emission following volatilization and leach- ing would then total around 1.3 million tonnes N per year.
However, this methodology is beset with high uncertainties, and may lead to an overestimation because manure during grazing is considered. The
majority of N 2 O emissions, or about 0.9 million tonnes N, would still originate from mixed systems. 3.4 Summary of livestock’s impact
Overall, livestock activities contribute an esti- mated 18 percent to total anthropogenic green- house gas emissions from the five major sectors for
greenhouse gas reporting: energy, industry, waste, land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) and agriculture. Considering the last two
sectors only, livestock’s share is over 50 percent. For the agriculture sec- tor alone, livestock constitute nearly 80 percent of all emissions. Table
3.12 summarizes livestock’s overall impact on climate change by: major gas, source and type of production system. Here we will summarize the
impact for the three major greenhouse gases. Carbon dio xide Livestock account for 9 percent of global anthropogenic emissions When
deforestation for pasture and feedcrop land, and pasture degradation are taken into account, livestock-related emissions of carbon dioxide are an
important component of the glob- al t otal (some 9 percent). However, as can be seen from the many assumptions made in pre- ceding sections,
these totals have a considerable degree of uncertainty. LULUCF sector emissions in particular are extremely difficult to quantify and the values
reported to the UNFCCC for this sector are known to be of low reliability. This sector is therefore often omitted in emissions reporting, although
its share is thought to be important. Although small by comparison to LULUCF, the livestock food chain is becoming more fos- sil fuel intensive,
which will increase carbon dioxide emissions from livestock production. As ruminant production (based on traditional local feed resources) shifts
to intensive monogastrics (based on food transported over long distances), there is a corresponding shift away from solar energy harnessed by
photosynthesis, to fossil fuels.
Methane Livestock account for 35–40 percent of global anthropogenic
emissions The leading role of livestock, in methane emis- sions, has long been a well-established
fact. Together, enteric fermentation and manure rep- r esent some 80 percent of agricultural
methane emissions and about 35–40 percent of the total anthropogenic methane emissions. With the
decline of ruminant livestock in rela- tive terms, and the overall trend towards higher productivity in ruminant production, it is unlikely 15
FAO/IFA (2001) data on animal manure application to crop- land, diminished by the FAO/IFA N volatilization and emission estimates. 16
Applying the same N 2 O loss rate for subsequent emission to the roughly 6 million tonnes N reaching the aquatic reser- voirs out of the total of
22 million tonnes manure N volatilized as NH 3 in the mid-1990s according to the literature. 113 Livestock’s role in climate change and air
pollution Table 3.12 Role of livestock in carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions Gas Source Mainly Mainly Percentage r elat ed to
related to contribution e xtensive intensive to total sys tems systems animal food (10 9 tonnes CO 2 eq.) (10 9 tonnes CO 2 eq.) GHG emissions
CO 2 Total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 24 (~31) Total from livestock activities ~0.16 (~2.7) N fertilizer production 0.04 0.6 on farm fossil
fuel, feed ~0.06 0.8 on farm fossil fuel, livestock-related ~0.03 0.4 deforestation (~1.7) (~0.7) 34 cultivated soils, tillage (~0.02) 0.3 cultivated
soils, liming (~0.01) 0.1 desertification of pasture (~0.1) 1.4 processing 0.01 – 0.05 0.4 transport ~0.001 CH 4 Total anthropogenic CH 4
emissions 5.9 Total from livestock activities 2.2 enteric fermentation 1.6 0.20 25 manure management 0.17 0.20 5.2 N 2 O Total anthropogenic N
2 O emissions 3.4 Total from livestock activities 2.2 N fertilizer application ~0.1 1.4 indirect fertilizer emission ~0.1 1.4 leguminous feed
cropping ~0.2 2.8 manure management 0.24 0.09 4.6 manure application/deposition 0.67 0.17 12 indirect manure emission ~0.48 ~0.14 8.7
Grand total of anthr opogenic emissions 33 (~40) Total emissions from livestock activities ~4.6 (~7.1) Total extensive vs. intensive livestock
system emissions 3.2 (~5.0) 1.4 (~2.1) Percentage of total anthropogenic emissions 10 (~13%) 4 (~5%) Note: All values are expressed in billion
tonnes of CO 2 equivalent; values between brackets are or include emission from the land use, land-use change and forestry category; relatively
imprecise estimates are preceded by a tilde. Global t otals from CA i T, wri , accessed 02/06. Only CO 2 , C h 4 and N 2 O emissions are
considered in the total greenhouse gas emis- sion. Based on the analyses in this chapter, livestock emissions are attributed to the sides of the
production system continuum (from extensive to intensive/industrial) from which they originate. 114 Livestock’s long shadow that the
importance of enteric fermentation will increase further. However,
methane emissions from animal manure, although
much lower in absolute terms, are considerable and growing rapidly. Nitr ous oxide Livestock
account for 65 percent of global anthropogenic emissions Livestock activities contribute
substantially to the emission of nitrous oxide, the most potent of the three major greenhouse gases.
They con- tribute almost two-thirds of all anthropogenic N 2 O emissions, and 75–80 percent of agricul- tural emissions. Current trends
suggest that this level will substantially increase over the coming decades. Ammonia Livestock
account for 64 percent of global anthropogenic emissions Global anthropogenic atmospheric
emission of ammonia has recently been estimated at some 47 million tonnes N (Galloway et al .,
2004). Some 94 percent of this is produced by the agricultural sector. The livestock sector contributes about 68
percent of the agriculture share, mainly from deposited and applied manure. The resulting air and environmental pollution (mainly eutrophication,
also odour) is more a local or regional environmental problem than a global one. Indeed, similar levels of N deposi- tions can have substantially
different environ- mental effects depending on the type of eco- system they affect. The modelled distribution of atmospheric N deposition levels
(Figure 3.3) are a better indication of the environmental impact than the global figures. The distribution shows a strong and clear co-incidence
with intensive live- stock production areas (compare with Map 13). The figures presented are estimates for the overall global-level greenhouse
gas emissions. However, they do not describe the entire issue of livestock-induced change. To assist decision- making, the level and nature of
emissions need to be understood in a local context. In Brazil, for example, carbon dioxide emissions from land- use change (forest conversion and
soil organic matter loss) are reported to be much higher than emissions from the energy sector. At
the same time, methane
emissions from enteric fer- mentation strongly dominate the country’s total methane emission,
owing to the extensive beef cattle population. For this same reason pasture soils produce the highest
nitrous oxide emissions in Brazil, with an increasing contribution from manure. If livestock’s role
in land-use change is included, the contribution of the livestock sector to the total greenhouse gas
emission of this very large country can be estimated to be as high as 60 percent, i.e. much higher than the 18
percent at world level (Table 3.12).
5. Alt-cause: livestock, specifically cattle are the top destroyer of the environment,
cause massive amounts of GHG release
Lean 6 Lean, Geoffrey. "Cow 'emissions' more damaging to planet than CO2 from cars ." The
Independent. 10 Dec. 2006. <http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/cow-emissionsmore-damaging-to-planet-than-co2-from-cars-427843.html>.
Geoffrey Lean is Britain's longest-serving environmental correspondent, having pioneered reporting on the subject almost 40 years ago. He is an
environmental correspondent at the Telegraph and the environment editor at the Independent.
Meet the world's top destroyer of the environment. It is not the car, or the plane,or even George
Bush: it is the cow. A United Nations report has identified the world's rapidly growing herds of
cattle as the greatest threat to the climate, forests and wildlife. And they are blamed for a host of other
environmental crimes, from acid rain to the introduction of alien species, from producing deserts to
creating dead zones in the oceans, from poisoning rivers and drinking water to destroying coral reefs. The
400-page report by the Food and Agricultural Organisation, entitled Livestock's Long Shadow, also
surveys the damage done by sheep, chickens, pigs and goats. But in almost every case, the world's 1.5
billion cattle are most to blame. Livestock are responsible for 18 per cent of the greenhouse gases
that cause global warming, more than cars, planes and all other forms of transport put together.
Burning fuel to produce fertiliser to grow feed, to produce meat and to transport it - and clearing
vegetation for grazing - produces 9 per cent of all emissions of carbon dioxide, the most common
greenhouse gas. And their wind and manure emit more than one third of emissions of another,
methane, which warms the world 20 times faster than carbon dioxide. Livestock also produces more
than 100 other polluting gases, including more than two-thirds of the world's emissions of ammonia,
one of the main causes of acid rain. Ranching, the report adds, is "the major driver of deforestation"
worldwide, and overgrazing is turning a fifth of all pastures and ranges into desert.Cows also soak up vast
amounts of water: it takes a staggering 990 litres of water to produce one litre of milk. Wastes from
feedlots and fertilisers used to grow their feed overnourish water, causing weeds to choke all other life.
And the pesticides, antibiotics and hormones used to treat them get into drinking water and endanger
human health. The pollution washes down to the sea, killing coral reefs and creating "dead zones" devoid
of life. One is up to 21,000sqkm, in the Gulf of Mexico, where much of the waste from US beef
production is carried down the Mississippi. The report concludes that, unless drastic changes are made,
the massive damage done by livestock will more than double by 2050, as demand for meat
increases.
2NC—Oxidation Solves
Oxidation and depths solve any MH leaks
Ruppel 11—Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.
[“Methane Hydrates and Contemporary Climate Change,” Carolyn Ruppel, Nature Education Knowledge,
Volume 2, Number 12, 2011, accessed from Emory] // HR
The susceptibility of gas hydrates to warming climate depends on the duration of the warming event, their depth beneath the seafloor or tundra
surface, and the amount of warming required to heat sediments to the point of dissociating gas hydrates. A
rudimentary estimate of
the depth to which sediments are affected by an instantaneous, sustained temperature change DT in
the overlying air or ocean waters can be made using the diffusive length scale 1 = √kt , which describes the depth (m) that 0.5 DT will propagate
in elapsed time t (s). k denotes thermal diffusivity, which ranges from ~0.6 to 1x10-6 m2/s for unconsolidated sediments. Over 10, 100, and 1000
yr, the calculation yields maximum of 18 m, 56 m, and 178 m, respectively, regardless of the magnitude of DT. In real situations, DT is usually
small and may have short- (e.g., seasonal) or long-term fluctuations that swamp the signal associated with climate warming trends. Even
over
103 yr, only gas hydrates close to the seafloor and initially within a few degrees of the
thermodynamic stability boundary might experience dissociation in response to reasonable rates of
warming. As discussed below, less than 5% of the gas hydrate inventory may meet these criteria.
Even when gas hydrate dissociates, several factors mitigate the impact of the liberated CH4 on the
sediment ocean-atmosphere system. In marine sediments, the released CH4 may dissolve in local
pore waters, remain trapped as gas, or rise toward the seafloor as bubbles. Up to 90% or more of
the CH4 that reaches the sulfate reduction zone (SRZ) in the near-seafloor sediments may be consumed by
anaerobic CH4 oxidation (Hinrichs & Boetius 2002, Treude et al. 2003, Reeburgh 2007, Knittel & Boetius 2009). At the highest flux
sites (seeps), the SRZ may vanish, allowing CH4 to be injected directly into the water column or, in some cases, partially consumed by aerobic
microbes (Niemann et al. 2006).
Methane emitted at the seafloor only rarely survives the trip through the water column to reach the
atmosphere. At seafloor depths greater than ~100 m, O2 and N2 dissolved in ocean water almost completely replace CH4 in rising bubbles
(McGinnis et al. 2006). Within the water column, oxidation by aerobic microbes is an important sink for dissolved
CH4 over some depth ranges and at some locations (e.g., Mau et al. 2007). These oxidizing microbial communities are
remarkably responsive to environmental changes, including variations in CH4 concentrations. For
example, rapid deepwater injection of large volumes of CH4 led to dramatically increased oxidation in
the northern Gulf of Mexico in 2010 (Kessler et al. 2011, Yvon-Lewis et al. 2011). Water column CH4 oxidation mitigates the
direct GHG impact of CH4 that is emitted at the seafloor, but it also depletes water column O2, acidifies ocean waters, and leads to the eventual
release of the product CO2 to the atmosphere after residence times (Liro et al 1993) of <50 years (water depths up to 500 m) to several hundred
years (more profound water depths).
MHs won’t increase warming
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 17,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Methane Hydrates and Climate Change
The atmospheric concentration of methane, like that of carbon dioxide, has increased since the onset of
the Industrial Revolution. Methane in the atmosphere comes from many sources, including wetlands,
rice cultivation, termites, cows and other ruminants, forest fires, and fossil fuel production. Some
researchers have estimated that up to two percent of atmospheric methane may originate through
dissociation of global methane hydrates (as reviewed by Ruppel, 2011). It has been shown that methane
is an important component of Earth’s carbon cycle on geologic timescales. Whether methane once
stored as methane hydrate has contributed to past climate change or will play a role in the future
global climate remains unclear. A given volume of methane causes 15 to 20 times more greenhouse gas
warming than carbon dioxide, so the release of large quantities of methane to the atmosphere could
exacerbate atmospheric warming and cause more methane hydrates to destabilize. Extreme warming
during the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum about 55 million years ago may have been related to a
large‐scale release of global methane hydrates. The impact of modern climate warming on methane
hydrate deposits does not appear to have led to catastrophic breakdown of methane hydrates or
major leakage of methane to the ocean‐atmosphere system from destabilized hydrates. The vast
majority of methane hydrates would require a sustained warming over thousands of years to trigger
dissociation; however, methane hydrates in some locations are now dissociating in response to longer‐
term climate processes.
Safe drilling practices prevent MHs from being a drilling hazard
Consortium for Ocean Leadership 14—a Washington, DC-based nonprofit organization that
represents more than 100 of the leading public and private ocean research and education institutions,
aquaria and industry with the mission to advance research, education and sound ocean policy.
[“Development of a Scientific Plan for a Methane Hydrate-Focused Marine Drilling, Logging and Coring
Program,” Office of Fossil Energy, Prepared for the US DOE, February 2014, pp 17,
http://www.netl.doe.gov/File%20Library/Research/Oil-Gas/methane%20hydrates/fe0010195-finalreport.pdf ] // AG
Methane Hydrates as Geohazards
Geohazards associated with the occurrence of methane hydrates in nature are generally classified as
“naturally occurring” geohazards that emerge wholly from geologic processes and “operational”
geohazards that may be triggered by human activity (Boswell et al., 2012b). As a “naturally occurring”
geohazard, the presence of methane hydrate increases the mechanical strength of the sediment
within which it resides. However, the dissociation of methane hydrate releases free gas and excess pore
water, which may substantially reduce the geomechanical stability of the affected sediment. The
potential linkage between large‐scale mass wasting events and the dissociation of methane hydrates
has been a topic of interest over the past decade. In comparison to most conventional hydrocarbon
accumulations, methane hydrates occur at relatively shallow depths, representing a hazard to shallow
drilling and well completions. Results from several methane hydrate drilling programs, including
Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Legs 164 and 204, and more recently the Chevron‐led Gulf of Mexico
Joint Industry Project (GOM‐ JIP) Legs I and II, Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition
311, and National Gas Hydrate Program (NGHP) Expedition 01 have shown that drilling hazards
associated with methane hydrate bearing sections can be managed through careful control
of drilling parameters.
Oxidation of methane in the ocean
G.P. Glasby 2003 [Potential impact on climate of the exploitation of methane hydrate deposits
offshore] Marine and Petroleum Geology Volume 20, Issue 2, February 2003, Pages 163–175
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264817203000217
A key question is to what extent methane released into the overlying seawater at the seafloor would
be introduced into the atmosphere. Lammers, Suess, and Hovland (1995) have measured high concentrations of methane around
pockmark craters in the Barents Sea. However, the methane concentration in the sea water was observed to
decrease by 98% between a water depth of 300 m and the sea surface as a result of microbial
oxidation, thus lowering the methane flux to the atmosphere 50-fold (Mienert et al., 1998).Kvenvolden (1999) has
similarly argued that methane associated with methane hydrates would vent slowly over geological time,
providing opportunities for its oxidation to carbon dioxide in the water column by microbial and
chemical processes. However, higher fluxes of methane are known to occur in autumn and winter in the Barents Sea when vertical
mixing of the water masses takes place (Long, Lammers, & Linke, 1998). Microbial oxidation of methane derived from methane hydrates
beneath the seafloor is, of course well known (Suess, 2002 and Orphan et al., 2001).
The idea that oxidation of methane in the oceans takes place rapidly is supported by the
observation ofTsunogai, Yoshida, Ishibashi, and Gamo (2000) that 98% of the methane within a hydrothermal
plume at Myojin Knoll on the Izu-Bonin Arc south of Japan was oxidized below a water depth of 900 m as a result of
microbial oxidation. In this case, the specific methane oxidation rate (equivalent to the fraction of methane that can be oxidized per day)
was 4.3–16.1×10−3 day−1 equivalent to a mean residence time of methane in the ocean of 2–8 months. Suess et al. (1999) have similarly reported
high rates of methane oxidation in vent fluids from the Cascadia convergent margin. By contrast, the residence time of methane in the open ocean
appears to be very much longer ranging from a few to a few hundred years in the North Pacific (Watanabe, Higashitani, Tsurushima, & Tsunogai,
1995) to 50 years in North Atlantic deep water (Brooks, 1979 and Rehder et al., 1999). According to Watanabe et al. (1995), these differences in
the rates of oxidation of methane may reflect the fact that oxidation of methane in dilute solutions such as deep-ocean waters is slow but is much
higher in hydrothermal plumes containing high concentrations of methane which support enhanced consumption of the methane by
methanotrophic bacteria.
In a major study, Valentine, Blanton, Reeburgh and Kastner (2001) have determined the rate of oxidation of methane in the water column in
the Eel River Basin off the coast of northern California adjacent to an area where methane hydrates were actively dissociating. The hydrates
were located at a water depth of 520–530 m which is close to the stability boundary of the hydrates under these conditions (Brewer, 2000,
Brewer et al., 1997 and Peltzer and Brewer, 2000). These authors demonstrated that the methane turnover time is much shorter (ca. 1.5 years)
in deep waters (>370 m) where methane is actively venting and methane concentrations are high (20–300 nM) than in shallower waters (<370
m) where methane concentrations are low (3–10 nM) and the methane turnover time is measured in decades. The depth-integrated methane
oxidation in the water column averaged 5.2 mmole m−2 yr−1 in the deep waters but only 0.14 mmole m−2 yr−1in shallow waters.
According to von Rad et al. (2000), cold seeps from the Makran accretionary wedge off Pakistan discharge large plumes of methane into the
deeper parts of the Indian intermediate water which extend horizontally for >20 km into the ocean. In addition, pore waters in sediment
containing authigenic carbonates grabbed directly from a cold seep in this region contained 10–36 ppm methane. These observations prove
that methane is discharged in large quantities from methane hydrate deposits. Venting of methane-rich plumes from a depth of 2617 m on the
Carolina continental rise has also been documented (Paull et al., 1995). The plumes were identified in the water column up to 320 m above the
sea floor and were thought to be caused by the upward migration of gas bubbles or buoyant clumps of methane hydrate. Gas plumes have also
been identified on high-resolution seismic profiles in the eastern Arabian Sea off India but these also do not appear to reach the sea surface
(Karisiddaiah & Veerayya, 1996). According to Valentine et al. (2001), methane entering the water column as bubbles dissolves within a few
hundred metres of the seafloor, except in the case of the massive release of methane by slumping (Brooks et al., 1981, Hovland et al., 1993,
Judd et al., 1997, Yamamoto et al., 1976 and Leifer & Judd, 2002). However, a gas plume with a base about 600 m wide has been observed
streaming from gas hydrate mound at a depth of 540 m on the upper continental slope of the Gulf of Mexico (Sassen et al., 2001a). Although
the echo sounder profile did not trace the gas bubble trace to the sea surface, gas bubbles with oil (20–30 mm in diameter) have been observed
at the sea surface at this site for a number of years. Vigorous methane plumes up to 500 m high emanating from methane hydrates have also
been observed on the seafloor in the Sea of Okhotsk (Suess et al., 1999). In the winter of 1991, a concentration of 6.5 ml l−1 CH4 was measured
in the seawater just below the ice cover but this had dropped to 0.13 ml l −1 CH4 the next summer. The difference was assumed to have vented
to the atmosphere. Suess et al. (1999) have also reported a plume several hundred metres high and several kilometres wide on one of the
ridges at the Cascadia convergent margin.
For events at the latest Palaeocene Thermal Maximum (LPTM), Dickens, 2000, Dickens et al., 1997 and Dickens et al., 1995 have argued that
oxidation of the methane to carbon dioxide would have been rapid. This idea is supported by the
fact that the lifetime of methane in the atmosphere is 8–10 years (Tyler, 1991). Kennett et al. (2000), on the other
hand, have pointed out that that large oscillations in atmospheric methane concentrations associated with quaternary climatic cycles have
been recorded in polar ice cores on millenial and decadal time scales and that dramatic warmings during the first few decades of interglacials
and interstadials coincided with rapid increases in atmospheric concentrations of methane (Haq, 1998 and Haq, 2000). This suggests that large
increases in atmospheric methane concentrations can result from the large-scale dissociation of methane hydrates.
under steady-state conditions, much of the methane released into water
column as a result of the dissociation of methane hydrates would be oxidized before reaching the
sea surface. However, catastrophic events such as large-scale sediment slumping would lead to considerable turbulence in the overlying
These observations suggest that,
water mass. Under these conditions, it is probable that a much higher proportion of the methane would be brought up to the sea surface and
released to the atmosphere. The recent observation of bulk samples of methane hydrates up to 1 m 3 in volume floating to the sea surface at
Hydrate Ridge at the Cascadia convergent margin (Suess et al., 2001) offers strong support to the idea that large, instantaneous pulses of
methane to the atmosphere could have taken place under such extreme conditions. Such events would have an immediate impact on global
climate.
Finally, particular attention should be paid to the suggestion of Sassen et al., 2001b and Sassen et al., 2001cthat venting from a prolific subsurface
petroleum system is far more significant than venting from methane hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico and that there appears to be a net trapping of
these thermogenic gases in the methane hydrate deposits. This interesting hypothesis leads these authors to suggest that sequestering of
greenhouse gases in stable or accumulating methane hydrate deposits may buffer the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (c.f.
Kvenvolden, 2002). However, this situation would presumably hold true only in areas where prolific migration of thermogenic gases is taking
place such as the Gulf of Mexico and the global significance of this process needs to be evaluated.
2NC—Extinction Not Empirically Proven
Methane release didn’t cause the Permian extinction
Payne et al 04—Associate Professor of Geological and Environmental Sciences at Stanford
University, Ph.D in Earth and Planetary Sciences from Harvard University. [“Large Peturbations of the
Carbon Cycle During Recovery from the End-Permian Extinction,” Jonathan L. Payne, Daniel J.
Lehrmann, Jiayong Wei, Michael J. Orchard, Daniel P. Schrag, and Andrew H. Knoll, Science, Volume
305, 23 July 2004, accessed from Emory] // AG
Massive methane release from sea-floor gas hydrate reservoirs has also been suggested as an explanation
for the P-Tr boundary excursion (5, 19, 21, 35). Unlike the Late Paleocene event for which gas hydrate
release was first proposed (36), however, the more gradual and roughly symmetric increases and
decreases in 13C [carbon] carb during the later part of the Early Triassic would require extended,
alternating intervals of methane storage and release. The long time scale
[
100 thousand years (ky), assuming constant sedimentation rates] of the negative shifts is difficult to
account for under the scenario of methane release, because as the time scale of the isotopic shift
increases, so too does the amount of methane needed to produce the same excursion. The
8‰ drop from the late Dienerian to Smithian (Fig. 2) over 100 to 500 ky
would require the release of much more than 10,000 Gt of methane (1 Gt 107 kg) (37), more than five
times the amount suggested to account for the Late Paleocene thermal maximum (36). Furthermore, the
dependence of methane production on organic carbon burial precludes rapid (i.e., 1 million years)
replenishment of the methane hydrate reservoir in the absence of extraordinarily high rates of
organic carbon burial (38). Methane release is an attractive hypothesis for the P-Tr carbon-isotopic
event viewed in isolation, but the full Early Triassic record is not easily reconciled with a methanedriven scenario.
2NC—Squo Solves
Current regulations solve
Banks & Schneider 12—Senior Climate Policy Advisor for the Clean Air Task Force // Advocacy
Director for the Clean Air Task Force. [“Curb Methane Emissions,” Jonathan Banks and Conrad
Schnieder, 23 July 2012 http://www.catf.us/blogs/ahead/2012/07/23/461/
With Shell’s imminent entrance into Arctic waters, the debate is turning from “if we drill in the Arctic,”
to “how and where we drill in the Arctic.” The discussion to date has primarily revolved around the key
questions of oil spills and impacts to marine ecosystems. However, it is also critically important to
remember that this debate starts and ends with climate change.
The melting of the Arctic due to global warming is what set off the race for Arctic oil and gas. Now, it is
incumbent upon the countries and the companies that intend to develop the Arctic to make sure
that it is done in the least damaging way possible, and this includes paying very close attention to
the global warming pollutants coming from the production: methane, black carbon and carbon
dioxide. Pointing the way forward in a new report: (www.catf.us/resources/publications/view/170),
Clean Air Task Force has laid out the primary climate risks and mitigation strategies of drilling in
the Arctic. Here is a summary of some of the key findings of that report:
While oil production is the primary focus of current exploration and production activities due to high oil
prices, natural gas is almost always produced along with oil, posing the problem of what to do with it.
Crude oil usually contains some amount of “associated” natural gas that is dissolved in the oil or exists as
a cap of free gas above the oil in the geological formation. In some cases, this represents a large volume
of gas. For example, nearly 3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year of gas is produced in association with oil in
Alaska. The largest (but by no means only) potential source of methane pollution is from the leaks
or outright venting of this “associated” natural gas. Flaring, the typical way to dispose of this
“stranded” gas, is much better than venting, but it releases a tremendous amount of CO2. Worldwide,
about 5 trillion cubic feet of gas is flared each year. That’s about 25 percent of the US’s annual natural
gas consumption. This leads to the release of about 400 million tons of CO2 per year globally, the
equivalent to the annual emissions from over 70 million cars.
Black carbon is also emitted from flares, although measurements are lacking to fully understand the
potential burden from flaring. What we do know is that the black carbon that flaring will release in the
Arctic is particularly harmful, since it is so likely to settle out on snow or ice, where the dark pollutant
rapidly warms the white frozen surface.
Many technologies and best practices exist to reduce the impact of oil and gas production both to
the Arctic and the global climate. If we are going to extract the oil from the Arctic, we need to do it in a
way that does not exacerbate the very real problem that climate change is already posing there. In order to
do so, the US must take the lead in ensuring that only the best practices are acceptable when it
comes to Arctic exploration and drilling. The technologies and practices below can dramatically
reduce the emissions associated with oil and natural gas, in some cases by almost 100%.
2NC—No Methane Leaks
Most qualified evidence says their methane arg could not possibly be stupider
Carolyn Ruppel, Chief of the US Geological Survey Gas Hydrates Project 12, and Diane
Noserale, USFGS scientist, May/June 2012, “Gas Hydrates and Climate Warming—Why a Methane
Catastrophe Is Unlikely,” online: http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2012/06/)(AC)
News stories and Web postings have raised concerns that climate warming will release large volumes of
methane from gas hydrates, kicking off a chain reaction of warming and methane releases. But recent
research indicates that most of the world’s gas hydrate deposits should remain stable for the next
few thousand years . Of the gas hydrates likely to become unstable, few are likely to release
methane that could reach the atmosphere and intensify climate warming.
Gas Hydrates Primer
Gas hydrates are an ice-like combination of natural gas and water that can form in deep-water ocean sediments near the continents and within or
beneath continuous permafrost. Specific temperatures and pressures and an ample supply of natural gas are required for gas hydrates to form and
remain stable.
An estimated 99 percent of gas hydrates are in ocean sediment and the remaining 1 percent in permafrost areas (see map).
Methane hydrate or “methane ice,” which is the most common type of gas hydrate, represents a highly concentrated form of methane: one cubic
foot of methane hydrate traps about 164 cubic feet of methane gas.
The amount of methane trapped in the Earth’s gas hydrate deposits is uncertain, but even the most conservative estimates conclude that about 1,000 times more methane is trapped in hydrates
than is consumed annually worldwide to meet energy needs. The most active area of gas-hydrate research focuses on gas hydrates’ potential as an alternative source of natural gas (for example,
see http://web.mit.edu/mitei/research/studies/documents/natural-gas-2011/Supplementary_Paper_SP_2_4_Hydrates.pdf [842 KB PDF]); the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Gas Hydrates
Project has several programs addressing this topic (see http://energy.usgs.gov/OilGas/UnconventionalOilGas/GasHydrates.aspx).
Gas Hydrates and Climate Change
Gas hydrate researchers are examining the link between climate change and the stability of methane-hydrate deposits. Warming climate could cause gas hydrates to break down (dissociate),
releasing the methane that they now trap.
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas. For a given volume, methane causes 15 to 20 times more greenhouse-gas warming than carbon dioxide, and so the release of large volumes of methane to the
atmosphere could, in theory, exacerbate climate warming and cause more gas hydrates to destabilize.
Some research suggests that such large-scale, climate-driven dissociation events have occurred in the past. For example, extreme warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum about
55 million years ago may have been related to a large-scale release of methane from global methane hydrates. Some scientists have also advanced the clathrate-gun hypothesis to explain
observations that may be consistent with repeated, catastrophic dissociation of gas hydrates and triggering of submarine landslides during the late Quaternary (400,000 to 10,000 years ago).
Methane As a Greenhouse Gas
The atmospheric concentration of methane, like that of carbon dioxide, has increased since the onset of the Industrial Revolution. Methane in the atmosphere comes from many sources, including
wetlands, rice cultivation, termites, cows and other ruminants, forest fires, and fossil-fuel production. Some researchers have estimated that as much as 2 percent of atmospheric methane may
originate with dissociation of global gas hydrates. Currently, scientists do not have a tool to say with certainty how much, if any, atmospheric methane comes from hydrates.
Although methane is a potent greenhouse gas, it does not remain in the atmosphere for long; within about 10 years, it reacts with other compounds in the atmosphere to form carbon dioxide and
water. Thus, methane that is released to the atmosphere ultimately adds to the amount of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas.
Climate-Driven Gas Hydrate Dissociation
For the most part, warming
at rates documented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 20th century
should not lead to catastrophic breakdown of methane hydrates or major leakage of methane to
the ocean-atmosphere system from gas hydrates that dissociate. Although most methane hydrates would
have to experience sustained warming over thousands of years before dissociation was triggered, gas
hydrates in some places are dissociating now in response to short- and long-term climatic processes.
The following discussion refers to the numbered type locales or sectors shown in the diagram of gas-hydrate deposits below.
Sector 1, Thick Onshore Permafrost: Gas hydrates that occur within or beneath thick terrestrial permafrost will remain largely stable even if
climate warming lasts hundreds of years. Over thousands of years, warming could cause gas hydrates at the top of the stability zone, about 625
feet (190 meters) below the Earth’s surface, to begin to dissociate.
Sector 2, Shallow Arctic Shelf: The shallow-water continental shelves that circle parts of the Arctic Ocean were formed when sea-level rise
during the past 10,000 years inundated permafrost that was at the coastline. Subsea permafrost is thawing beneath these continental shelves, and
associated methane hydrates are likely dissociating now. (For example, see related Sound Waves article "Degradation of Subsea Permafrost and
Associated Gas Hydrates Offshore of Alaska in Response to Climate Change.") If methane from these gas hydrates reaches the seafloor, much of
it will likely be emitted to the atmosphere. Less than 1 percent of the world’s gas hydrates probably occur in this setting, but this estimate could
be revised as scientists learn more.
Sector 3, Upper Edge of Stability: Gas hydrates on upper continental slopes, beneath 1,000 to 1,600 feet (300 to 500 meters) of water, lie at the
shallowest water depth for which methane hydrates are stable. The upper continental slopes, which ring all of the world’s continents, could host
gas hydrate in zones that are roughly 30 feet (10 meters) thick. Warming ocean waters could completely dissociate these gas hydrates in less than
100 years. Methane emitted at these water depths will probably dissolve or be oxidized in the water column and is unlikely to reach the
atmosphere. About 3.5 percent of the Earth’s gas hydrates occur in this climate-sensitive setting.
Sector 4, Deepwater: Most
of the Earth’s gas hydrates, about 95 percent, occur in water depths greater than
3,000 feet (1,000 meters). They are likely to remain stable even with a sustained increase in bottom
temperatures over thousands of years . Most of the gas hydrates in these settings occur deep within the sediments. If the
gas hydrates do dissociate, the released methane should remain trapped in the sediments, migrate
upward to form new gas hydrates, or be consumed by oxidation in near-seafloor sediments. Most methane
released at the seafloor would likely dissolve or be oxidized in the water column. A recent article, “Methane
Hydrates and Contemporary Climate Change,” provides more detail.
Be skeptical of their evidence—qualified research concludes neg
Revkin 11 (Andrew Revkin 11, Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding at Pace University
Academy for Applied Environmental Studies and Founder of the Dot Earth blog for The New York
Times, "Methane Time Bomb in Arctic Seas – Apocalypse Not," December 14, The New York Times,
dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/14/methane-time-bomb-in-arctic-seas-apocalypse-not/)(AC)
A very important research effort has been under way during recent summers in the warming, increasingly ice-free
shallows off Russia’s Siberian coast. There, an international array of scientists has been investigating widening
areas of open water that are disgorging millions of tons of methane each year.¶ Given that methane, molecule
for molecule, has at least 20 times the heat-trapping properties of carbon dioxide, it’s important to get a handle on whether these are new releases,
the first foretaste of some great outburst from thawing sea-bed stores of the gas, or simply a longstanding phenomenon newly observed. ¶ If
you
read the Independent of Britain, you’d certainly be thinking the worst. The newspaper has led the charge in
fomenting worry over the gas emissions, with portentous, and remarkably similar, stories in 2008 and this week. [Dec. 29, 1:44 p.m. | Updated |
Steve Connor, the writer (also science editor) at The Independent, alerted me that the article has been revised with a new headline and expanded
to include content that didn't make it into the piece when first published.] ¶ If
you read geophysical journals and survey
scientists tracking past and future methane emissions, you get an entirely different picture:¶ A paper
published in Dec. 6 in the Journal of Geophysical Research appears to confirm pretty convincingly that the
gas emissions seen in recent years are from a thawing process that has been under way for 8,000
years — since seas rose sufficiently to cover the near-shore seabed. Sharp warming of the sea in the region since 1985 has clearly had an
influence on the seabed, according to the paper, led by Igor Dmitrenko of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in Kiel, Germany. ¶ But read
this summary of the paper from the American Geophysical
“methane time bomb” there is safe for a long time to come:¶
Union, which publishes the journal, and see if you feel reassured that the
[T]he authors found
that roughly 1 meter of the subsurface permafrost thawed in the past 25 years,
adding to the 25 meters of already thawed soil. Forecasting the expected future permafrost thaw, the authors found that
even under the most extreme climatic scenario tested this thawed soil growth will not exceed 10
meters by 2100 or 50 meters by the turn of the next millennium. The authors note that the bulk of the
methane stores in the east Siberian shelf are trapped roughly 200 meters below the seafloor… [Read the
rest.]¶ Here’s the link to the paper itself: “Recent changes in shelf hydrography in the Siberian Arctic: Potential for subsea permafrost
instability.Ӧ To review, the
authors confirm “drastic bottom layer heating over the coastal zone” that they attribute to warming of the Arctic
atmosphere, but conclude
that “recent climate change cannot produce an immediate response in sub-sea
permafrostt.” That’s the understatement of the year considering their conclusion that even under sustained heating, the brunt of the sub-sea
methane won’t be affected in this millennium.¶ It’s worth considering the risks of “single-study syndrome,” given that other recent work
continues to find disturbing amounts of methane emissions in Arctic shallows. ¶ But scientists
who track methane in the
atmosphere in the Arctic and elsewhere around the planet see no big surge that can be pinned on
such releases. Before I distributed the link to the new paper above to relevant scientists, I’d already heard from Ed Dlugokencky,
one of the top federal researchers tracking methane trends. He sent a detailed review of atmospheric
measurements from the Arctic to the Equator and concluded, quite simply:¶ [B]ased on what we see in
the atmosphere, there is no evidence of substantial increases in methane emissions from the Arctic
in the past 20 years.
Release is slow now
FJW Parmentier,et al. 2013 ["Arctic: Speed of methane release."] Clim. Change 3 (2013): 195-202.
Gail Whiteman and colleagues
suggest that the opening up of the Arctic Ocean could bring more
economic costs than benefits, owing to climatic effects resulting from a sudden release of 50
gigatonnes of methane from the area (Nature 499, 401–403; 2013). However, our literature review of the impact
of sea-ice decline on Arctic greenhouse-gas exchange indicates that methane release is likely to be more gradual
because of a slow rate of heat penetration into the subsea permafrost (see F. J. W. Parmentier et al. Nature Clim.
Change 3, 195–202; 2013). We therefore believe that the proposed scenario is unlikely. Although the Arctic Ocean
represents a substantial source of methane, there are still many unknowns. Any research that assumes a large increase in emissions from that
region should therefore include ample discussion of the uncertainties relating to this source. Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Torben R. Christensen
Lund University, Sweden. frans-jan.parmentier@nateko.lu.se
We disagree with Gail Whiteman and colleagues that there is “likely” to be a large and sudden release of
methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Nature 499, 401–403; 2013). Such an event would require an
almost 1,000-fold regional increase in methane emissions from thawing permafrost, which would be
inconsistent with geological evidence: although the concentration of atmospheric methane rose in response to abrupt warming
during recent deglaciations, isotopic methane measurements do not indicate that the gas came from marine gas hydrates during these periods (H.
Fischer et al. Nature 452, 864–867; 2008).
Sea-floor temperatures determine the stability of methane hydrate reservoirs. To our knowledge,
there is no evidence that these temperatures have changed significantly in the past few decades, or
that a sudden change is imminent. Although elevated methane concentrations have been observed in water and the atmosphere
above the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, it is not clear whether these have been caused by recent warming or by natural processes linked to glacial–
interglacial changes (V. V. Petrenko et al. Science 329, 1146–1147; 2010). The
global increase in methane recorded in the
past few years does not seem to have been caused by enhanced Arctic emissions. We welcome studies that
quantify the economic impact of global warming, but they need to be accompanied by a realistic assessment of the uncertainties. Dirk Notz,
Victor Brovkin Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. dirk.notz@zmaw.de Martin Heimann Max Planck Institute for
Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany.
Gail Whiteman, Chris Hope and Peter Wadhams respond: Since 2005, accelerating sea-ice retreat in the Arctic has exposed the sea bed to much
warmer conditions than those considered in earlier studies that anticipated a slow release of methane. Summer water temperatures off Siberia now
climb to several degrees above 0 °C (see, for example, N. R. Bates et al. Biogeosciences 10, 5281–5309; 2013), causing the upper layers of
offshore permafrost to melt more rapidly than they did a decade ago. We
have rerun our model with the same total
quantity of emitted methane, but released over 50 or 75 years rather than 10 years. The results show no reduction in
the total cost to society — in fact, the discounted costs over time would be larger.
No warming from hydrates, it’s too deep
Ruppel 11—Ph.D. in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT, Chief of the USGS Gas Hydrates Project.
[“Methane Hydrates and Contemporary Climate Change,” Carolyn Ruppel, Nature Education Knowledge,
Volume 2, Number 12, 2011, accessed from Emory] // HR
Deep gas hydrates beneath capping, permafrost-bearing sediments are stable over warm periods that endure more than 103 yr (e.g., Lachenbruch
et al. 1994), even under scenarios of doubling atmospheric CO2 (Majorowicz et al. 2008). Only
gas hydrates at the top of the
GHSZ, nominally at ~225 m depth for pure CH4 hydrate within permafrost, might be vulnerable to
dissociation due to atmospheric warming over 103 yr. Such shallow, intrapermafrost gas hydrate has been sampled in the
North American Arctic (Collett et al. 2011, Dallimore & Collett 1995), but is not necessarily ubiquitous at high latitudes. Warming Arctic
temperatures tracked in deep boreholes since the 1960s provide no evidence for climate
perturbations reaching as deep as 200 m (Judge & Majorowicz 1992, Lachenbruch & Marshall 1986) in normal (e.g., not
beneath lakes) continuous permafrost. Some researchers have argued that gas hydrates formed during previous periods of ice/water
loading may persist today at subsurface depths as shallow as 20 m in areas of continuous permafrost (Chuvilin et al. 1998). Although their
existence is controversial, such shallow gas hydrates would clearly be highly susceptible to dissociation in response to climate warming.
There is an extremely low risk of methane seepage from permafrost sediments
Ruppel 11—Research Geophysicist @ U.S. Geological Survey [Dr. Carolyn Ruppel (Chief of the
USGS Gas Hydrates Project and PhD in Solid Earth geophysics from MIT), “Methane Hydrates and
Contemporary Climate Change,” Nature Education Knowledge 2(12):12, 2011, pg.
http://tinyurl.com/9yaaokr]
As the evidence for warming climate became better established in the latter part of the 20th century (IPCC 2001), some scientists raised the alarm
that large quantities of methane (CH4) might be liberated by widespread destabilization of climate-sensitive gas hydrate deposits trapped in
marine and permafrost-associated sediments (Bohannon 2008, Krey et al. 2009, Mascarelli 2009). Even if only a fraction of the liberated CH4
were to reach the atmosphere, the potency of CH4 as a greenhouse gas (GHG) and the persistence of its oxidative product (CO2) heightened
concerns that gas hydrate dissociation could represent a slow tipping point (Archer et al. 2009) for Earth's contemporary period of climate
change. Methane Hydrate Primer Methane hydrate is an ice-like substance formed when CH4 and water combine at low temperature (up to
~25ºC) and moderate pressure (greater than 3-5 MPa, which corresponds to combined water and sediment depths of 300 to 500 m). Globally, an
estimated 99% of gas hydrates occurs in the sediments of marine continental margins at saturations as high as 20% to 80% in some lithologies;
the remaining 1% is mostly associated with sediments in and beneath areas of high-latitude, continuous permafrost (McIver 1981, Collett et al.
2009). Nominally, methane hydrate concentrates CH4 by ~164 times on a volumetric basis compared to gas at standard pressure and temperature.
Warming a small volume of gas hydrate could thus liberate large volumes of gas. A challenge for assessing the impact of contemporary climate
change on methane hydrates is continued uncertainty about the size of the global gas hydrate inventory and the portion of the inventory that is
susceptible to climate warming. This paper addresses the latter issue, while the former remains under active debate. Dickens (2011) recently
estimated 7x102 to 1.27x104 Gt carbon (Gt C) to be sequestered in marine gas hydrates alone, while Shakhova et al. (2010a) estimate 3.75x102 Gt
C in methane hydrates just on the East Siberian Arctic shelf (ESAS). A conservative estimate (Boswell & Collett 2011) for the global gas hydrate
inventory is ~1.8x103 Gt C, corresponding to CH4 volume of ~3.0x1015 m3 if CH4 density is taken as 0.717 kg/m3. In the unlikely event that 0.1%
(1.8 Gt C) of this CH4 were instantaneously released to the atmosphere, CH4 concentrations would increase to ~2900 ppb from the 2005 value of
~1774 ppb (IPCC 2007). Why Methane Matters Concern about the long-term stability of global gas hydrate deposits is rooted in the potential
impact that a large CH4 release might have on global climate. CH4 is ~20 times more potent than CO2 as a GHG, but it oxidizes to CO2 after about
a decade in the atmosphere. In recent models, the longer-lived CO2 oxidation product (Archer et al. 2009), not the CH4 itself (e.g., Harvey &
Huang 1992), is credited with causing most of the excess atmospheric warming that would follow large-scale dissociation of methane hydrates.
The present-day concentration of CH4 in the atmosphere is ~200 times lower than that of CO2, but CH4 concentrations have risen by ~150% since
pre-industrial times, compared to only ~40% for CO2 (IPCC 2001). Rising atmospheric CH4 concentrations lead to more rapid depletion of the
hydroxyl radicals needed for oxidation, longer CH4 residence times, and thus increased CH4-induced warming (Lelieveld et al. 1998). Present-day
CH4 emissions are dominated by wetlands, ruminants, fossil fuel production, and rice cultivation (IPCC 2001), sources that fluctuate with season,
human behavior, and other factors. The IPCC (2001, 2007) relies on estimates and models (Fung et al. 1991, Lelieveld et al. 1998, Wang et al.
2004) to attribute ~3.75x10-4 Gt C (IPCC 2001), or ~1% of annual global CH4 emissions, to dissociating gas hydrates. This estimate has never
been validated, nor do any observational data unequivocally link specific CH4 emissions or regionally integrated CH4 fluxes to dissociating gas
hydrates. Against the backdrop of a well-mixed atmosphere, strong annual fluctuations, and a significant increase in CH 4 concentrations over the
20th century, detecting a CH4 signal that is directly attributable to dissociating gas hydrates may always remain challenging. Gas Hydrates and
Past Warming Events The geologic record is punctuated by warming events that may provide clues about future interactions between methane
hydrates and climate change. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at ~54.95 Ma is the most intensely studied of these
hyperthermals (e.g., Dickens et al. 1995, Schmidt & Shindell 2003, Renssen et al. 2004, Zachos et al. 2001, 2005, Röhl et al. 2007). The large,
negative carbon isotopic excursion (CIE) recorded in both marine and terrestrial sediments during the PETM has been interpreted as reflecting
widespread release of isotopically-light (microbial) carbon from dissociating marine methane hydrates (e.g., Dickens et al. 1995, Zachos et al.
2005). This explanation is also invoked to explain CIEs in other deep-time warm periods (Hesselbo et al. 2000, Jiang et al. 2003). Negative CIEs
also undergird the clathrate gun hypothesis (CGH), which postulates that repeated warming of intermediate ocean waters during the Late
Quaternary (since 400 ka) triggered periodic dissociation events (Kennett et al. 2003).Ice core data (Sowers 2006) and geologic studies (Maslin et
al. 2003) have challenged the CGH, while Bock et al. (2010) and Petrenko et al. (2009) question the role of gas hydrate dissociation in
contributing to increased atmospheric CH4 during more recent warming events as well. Northern hemisphere wetlands, which may experience
increased production of isotopically-light CH4 in response to local warming, appear to be the key culprit in enhancing atmospheric CH 4
concentrations during several Pleistocene (~2.6 Ma to 10 ka) and Holocene (since 10 ka) warming events. Fate of Contemporary Methane
Hydrates During Warming Climate The
susceptibility of gas hydrates to warming climate depends on the
duration of the warming event, their depth beneath the seafloor or tundra surface, and the amount of warming required to heat
sediments to the point of dissociating gas hydrates. A rudimentary estimate of the depth to which sediments are
affected by an instantaneous, sustained temperature change DT in the overlying air or ocean waters can be made
using the diffusive length scale 1 = √kt , which describes the depth (m) that 0.5 DT will propagate in elapsed time t (s). k denotes thermal
diffusivity, which ranges from ~0.6 to 1x10-6 m2/s for unconsolidated sediments. Over 10, 100, and 1000 yr, the calculation yields maximum of
18 m, 56 m, and 178 m, respectively, regardless of the magnitude of DT.
In real situations, DT is usually small and may
have short- (e.g., seasonal) or long-term fluctuations that swamp the signal associated with climate
warming trends. Even over 103 yr, only gas hydrates close to the seafloor and initially within a few
degrees of the thermodynamic stability boundary might experience dissociation in response to
reasonable rates of warming. As discussed below, less than 5% of the gas hydrate inventory may
meet these criteria. Even when gas hydrate dissociates, several factors mitigate the impact of the
liberated CH4 on the sediment-ocean-atmosphere system. In marine sediments, the released CH4 may
dissolve in local pore waters, remain trapped as gas, or rise toward the seafloor as bubbles. Up to
90% or more of the CH4 that reaches the sulfate reduction zone (SRZ) in the near-seafloor
sediments may be consumed by anaerobic CH4 oxidation (Hinrichs & Boetius 2002, Treude et al. 2003, Reeburgh
2007, Knittel & Boetius 2009). At the highest flux sites (seeps), the SRZ may vanish, allowing CH4 to be injected directly into the water column
or, in some cases, partially consumed by aerobic microbes (Niemann et al. 2006). Methane
emitted at the seafloor only rarely
survives the trip through the water column to reach the atmosphere. At seafloor depths greater than ~100 m, O2
and N2 dissolved in ocean water almost completely replace CH4 in rising bubbles (McGinnis et al. 2006).
Within the water column, oxidation by aerobic microbes is an important sink for dissolved CH 4 over some depth ranges and at some locations
(e.g., Mau et al. 2007). These oxidizing microbial communities are remarkably responsive to environmental changes, including variations in CH 4
concentrations. For example, rapid deepwater injection of large volumes of CH4 led to dramatically increased oxidation in the northern Gulf of
Mexico in 2010 (Kessler et al. 2011, Yvon-Lewis et al. 2011). Water column CH4 oxidation mitigates the direct GHG impact of CH4 that is
emitted at the seafloor, but it also depletes water column O2, acidifies ocean waters, and leads to the eventual release of the product CO2 to the
atmosphere after residence times (Liro et al. 1993) of <50 years (water depths up to 500 m) to several hundred years (more profound water
depths). Global Warming and Gas Hydrate Type Locales Methane hydrates occur in five geographic settings (or sectors) that must be
individually evaluated to determine their susceptibility to warming climate (Figure 1). The percentages assigned to each sector below assume that
99% of global gas hydrate is within the deepwater marine realm (McIver 1981, Collett et al. 2009). Future refinements of the global ratio of
marine to permafrost-associated gas hydrates will require adjustment of the assigned percentages. Owing to the orders of magnitude uncertainty
in the estimated volume of CH4 trapped in global gas hydrate deposits, the percentages below have not been converted to Gt C. Figure 1a: Gas
hydrate sectors and their response to climate change. Schematic cross-section from a high-latitude ocean margin (onshore permafrost and shallow
offshore subsea permafrost) in Sectors 1 and 2 on the left, across a generic upper continental slope (Sector 3), and into a deepwater marine gas
hydrate system (Sector 4) and an area of gas seeps on the right (Sector 5). The horizontal scale on Arctic Ocean margins may range from less than
102 to 103 km. GHSZ sediments usually have low saturations of methane hydrate, except in permeable sand layers shown here with coarsergrained texture. Ice-bonding within permafrost follows similar relationships. New microbial CH4 (green) can be formed where labile organic
carbon is available, including within the GHSZ, beneath lakes in permafrost areas, and in newly thawed sediments above subsea or terrestrial
permafrost. Red zones at and below the seafloor denote anaerobic CH4 oxidation (coinciding with sulfate reduction), which occurs in zones that
thin with increasing CH4 flux. The orange zone onshore denotes seasonal aerobic CH4 oxidation in the annually thawed active layer. CH4
oxidation associated with lakes in permafrost is not depicted. Methane, not necessarily derived from gas hydrates, is emitted directly to the
atmosphere at ebullition sites in shallow lakes within permafrost and probably in open water on shallow Arctic shelves. Methane emitted at the
seafloor at greater water depths is not likely to reach the atmosphere. Figure 1b: Gas hydrate sectors and their response to climate change. The
effects of climate warming on gas hydrates can be roughly estimated by comparing geotherms before and after warming events. The plots, which
are on different depth and temperature scales, show the initial geotherm (black), the thermodynamic conditions for gas hydrate stability (blue) for
pure CH4 hydrate in equilibrium with freshwater (sectors 1 and 2) and nominal seawater (sectors 3 and 4), and the geotherms after 100 and 3000
yr of warming (red and purple) due to an instantaneous, sustained increase in temperatures DT at the surface (sector 1) or seafloor (sectors 2 to 4),
assuming homogeneous, constant thermal diffusivity of 10-6 m2/s. Changing CH4 solubility in pore waters and endothermic heat of gas hydrate
dissociation are not considered. The light blue boxes for Sectors 1 and 2 denote permafrost, and the stippled column shows GHSZ thickness after
3000 yr of warming. The purple (Sectors 1 and 2) and pink (Sector 3) columns correspond to the dissociated portion of the GHSZ for 3000 yr and
100 yr temperature perturbations, respectively. 1. Thick (> 300 m) continuous permafrost onshore (<1%). Deep gas hydrates beneath capping,
permafrost-bearing sediments are stable over warm periods that endure more than 10 3 yr (e.g., Lachenbruch et al. 1994), even under scenarios of
doubling atmospheric CO2 (Majorowicz et al. 2008). Only gas hydrates at the top of the GHSZ, nominally at ~225 m depth for pure CH 4 hydrate
within permafrost, might be vulnerable to dissociation due to atmospheric warming over 10 3 yr. Such shallow, intrapermafrost gas hydrate has
been sampled in the North American Arctic (Collett et al. 2011, Dallimore & Collett 1995), but is not necessarily ubiquitous at high latitudes.
Warming Arctic temperatures tracked in deep boreholes since the 1960s provide no evidence for climate perturbations reaching as deep as 200 m
(Judge & Majorowicz 1992, Lachenbruch & Marshall 1986) in normal (e.g., not beneath lakes) continuous permafrost. Some researchers have
argued that gas hydrates formed during previous periods of ice/water loading may persist today at subsurface depths as shallow as 20 m in areas
of continuous permafrost (Chuvilin et al. 1998). Although their existence is controversial, such shallow gas hydrates would clearly be highly
susceptible to dissociation in response to climate warming. Simple numerical model: Adopting a pre-warming surface temperature of -10ºC and
initial geotherms of 19ºC/km and 30ºC/km within and beneath permafrost, respectively, sustained surface warming over 100 yr with DT =3ºC at
the surface does not raise temperatures enough to perturb the top of the GHSZ (Figure 1b). Warming
over 3000 yr would lead to
some thinning of permafrost and to dissociation of intrapermafrost gas hydrates in the shallowest
part of the GHSZ. Example: In the Mackenzie Delta, where permafrost is several hundreds of meters thick, Bowen et al. (2008)
document seep gas composition similar to that of gas sequestered in nearby gas hydrates. There is no proof that active gas hydrate dissociation, as
opposed to leakage of compositionally-similar free gas, supplies these seeps or other CH4 ebullition sites that occur throughout the Arctic region
(e.g., Walter et al. 2007). Such sites should continue to be evaluated for evidence of a potential link to climate-driven gas hydrate dissociation. 2.
Subsea permafrost on the circum-Arctic shelves (<0.25%?). Sediments on shallow marine continental shelves that fringe the Arctic Ocean are
often underlain by permafrost and associated gas hydrates that formed in Pleistocene time, when these regions were subaerial and exposed to
much colder annual temperatures. Since the Late Pleistocene, marine inundation of these former coastal plains has led to large (up to 17ºC;
Shakhova et al. 2010) temperature increases, partial thawing of subsea permafrost (Rachold et al. 2007), and inferred dissociation of gas hydrates
(Semiletov et al. 2004). Increasing pressures (~1 MPa for 100 m of sea level rise since ~15 ka) would have only marginally offset the impact of
warming temperatures on the GHSZ. Assuming that (a) 25% of northern-latitude continuous permafrost may have been flooded by Arctic Ocean
transgressions since the Late Pleistocene, (b) some of this gas hydrate has dissociated over the past 10 kyr, and (c) less than 1% of the present-day
global gas hydrate inventory is associated with permafrost implies that only a fraction of 1% of the global inventory occurs in areas of subsea
permafrost. This estimate deserves considerable scrutiny in the coming years. Shakhova et al. (2010a) calculate that gas hydrates on the ESAS
should sequester 20% of the carbon (375 Gt C) of the 1.8x103 Gt C within the conservative global gas hydrate inventory estimate (Boswell &
Collett 2011). Simple numerical model: Using the same initial conditions as for the terrestrial permafrost in Sector 1, a sustained temperature
increase of DT =10ºC and an accompanying minor pressure increase are applied to mimic the impact of marine inundation of formerly subaerial
permafrost to a water depth of 20 m (Figure 1b). After 100 yr, the temperature perturbation has propagated just to the top of gas hydrate stability.
After 3000 yr, the permafrost has thawed, and gas hydrates located near the top and the base of the GHSZ are dissociating and releasing CH4.
Example: Shakhova et al. (2010) document CH4 supersaturation in shallow ESAS coastal waters above sediments containing degrading subsea
permafrost and presumably dissociating gas hydrates. Studies are underway in similar settings on the Beaufort Sea inner shelf (e.g., Paull et al.
2011, Ruppel et al. 2010). A substantial fraction of CH4 that is emitted at the seafloor on Arctic shelves may reach the atmosphere since bubble
dissolution and aerobic oxidation should be limited in such shallow (~5 to 50 m) waters. The challenge lies in proving that at least some of the
elevated CH4 concentrations detected in these settings is attributable to dissociating gas hydrates rather than to other processes associated with
CH4 generation and/or migration. 3. Deepwater marine hydrates at the feather edge of GHSZ (~3.5%). The deepwater marine hydrate system
thins to vanishing at shallow water depths (usually < 500 m) on the upper continental slopes. Because the entire GHSZ lies near the seafloor,
upper continental slopes are the most susceptible places on Earth for wholesale gas hydrate dissociation driven by warming of impinging
intermediate ocean waters. A maximum 3.5% of the global gas hydrate inventory might occur in these vulnerable settings assuming that (a)
appropriate temperature-depth conditions for over the formation of a thin GHSZ occur over ~6x105 km2 of the upper continental slopes; (b) the
GHSZ (3% saturation) is 40-m-thick; (c) the SRZ is missing owing to high seepage rates; and (d) warming climate does not necessarily raise
water temperatures everywhere (e.g., Biastoch et al. 2011). As upper continental slope gas hydrate dissociates, the upper edge of the GHSZ
moves downslope, priming more near-seafloor gas hydrate for dissociation. Dissolution of CH4 bubbles or oxidation of CH4 in the water column
should prevent most of the CH4 that could be released from these gas hydrates from reaching the atmosphere immediately or in the form of CH4.
Simple Numerical Model: With an initial thermal gradient of 30ºC/km and original seafloor temperature of 2.5ºC, 100 yr of sustained warming
(DT =1.25ºC) of the intermediate waters that impinge on the upper continental slope leads to complete dissociation of the gas hydrate zone,
originally ~40 m thick (Figure 1b). Example: At water depths of 150 to 400 m on the West Spitsbergen continental margin, widespread gas
seepage may reflect gas hydrate dissociation caused by ~1ºC of ocean warming over the last 30 years (Westbrook et al. 2009). The connection
between dissociating gas hydrates and the methane plumes has yet to be fully established, but observations there, in the Barents Sea (Lammers et
al. 1995), and on the Canadian Beaufort Sea slope (Paull et al. 2011) provide compelling circumstantial evidence. 4. Deepwater gas hydrates
(~95.5%). These
gas hydrates, which constitute most of the global inventory, generally have low
susceptibility to warming climate over time scales shorter than a millennium. The gas hydrates closest to the
edge of thermodynamic stability lie deep within the sedimentary section and close to the base of the GHSZ. Sustained bottom water
temperature increases lasting many 103 yr would be required to initiate warming, no less
dissociation. Even if CH4 is released from gas hydrate and is able to migrate toward the seafloor,
some CH4 may be trapped in newly formed gas hydrate (e.g., Reagan & Moridis 2008) and much will be consumed in
the SRZ. Simple Numerical Model: Using the same initial conditions as for Sector 3 and assuming an increase in bottom water temperature of DT
=1.25ºC, sustained warming over 100 and 3000 yr produces no dissociation of gas hydrate (Figure 1b). 5. Seafloor gas hydrate mounds (trace). At
some marine seeps, massive, relatively pure gas hydrate occurs in seafloor mounds (e.g., Gulf of Mexico; Macdonald et al. 1994) and in shallow
subseafloor layers (e.g., Suess et al. 2001) or conduits. These mounds are shown schematically as deepwater phenomena in Figure 1a, but in fact
often occur at upper continental slope depths. While seafloor gas hydrate mounds and shallow subseafloor gas hydrates constitute only a trace
component of the global gas hydrate inventory, they can dissociate rapidly due to expulsion of warm fluids from the seafloor (e.g., Macdonald et
al. 2005), warming of overlying waters (e.g., Macdonald et al. 1994), or possibly pressure perturbations (Tryon et al. 2002). Direct measurements
of CH4 have alternately confirmed (Solomon et al. 2009) and challenged (Hu et al. 2011) the contention that significant CH4 reaches the
atmosphere due to gas hydrate dissociation at such seeps. Conclusions Catastrophic,
widespread dissociation of methane
gas hydrates will not be triggered by continued climate warming at contemporary rates (0.2ºC per
decade; IPCC 2007) over timescales of a few hundred years. Most of Earth's gas hydrates occur at low saturations and in sediments at such great
depths below the seafloor or onshore permafrost that they will barely be affected by warming over even 10 3 yr. Even
when CH4 is
liberated from gas hydrates, oxidative and physical processes may greatly reduce the amount that
reaches the atmosphere as CH4. The CO2 produced by oxidation of CH4 released from dissociating gas hydrates will likely have a
greater impact on the Earth system (e.g., on ocean chemistry and atmospheric CO2 concentrations; Archer et al. 2009) than will the CH4 that
remains after passing through various sinks. Contemporary and future gas hydrate degradation will occur primarily on the circum-Arctic Ocean
continental shelves (Sector 2; Macdonald 1990, Lachenbruch et al. 1994, Maslin 2010), where subsea permafrost thawing and methane hydrate
dissociation have been triggered by warming and inundation since Late Pleistocene time, and at the feather edge of the GHSZ on upper
continental slopes (Sector 3), where the zone's full thickness can dissociate rapidly due to modest warming of intermediate waters. More CH4
may be sequestered in upper continental slope gas hydrates than in those associated with subsea permafrost; however, CH 4 that reaches the
seafloor from dissociating Arctic Ocean shelf gas hydrates is much more likely to enter the atmosphere rapidly and as CH4, not CO2. Proof is still
lacking that gas hydrate dissociation currently contributes to seepage from upper continental slopes or to elevated seawater CH4 concentrations on
circum-Arctic Ocean shelves. An even greater challenge for the future is determining the contribution of global gas hydrate dissociation to
contemporary and future atmospheric CH4 concentrations. Acknowledgements. Comments from J. Kessler and an anonymous reviewer and
advice from R. Boswell, W. Reeburgh, W. Waite, J. Pohlman, and others improved this article. G. Westbrook provided the banner image, which
shows echosounder images of methane plumes emanating from the seafloor at 380 m depth on the Svalbard margin. Glossary Carbon isotopic
excursion (CIE): Climate scientists use isotopic signatures recorded in ice cores, deep ocean sediments, thick carbonate sequences, and other
types of samples to reconstruct Earth's climate history and the composition of the ocean/atmosphere. 13C isotopic signatures are commonly
expressed as a δ13C value. Deviations from the baseline δ13C value are termed carbon isotopic excursions. Negative deviations in δ 13C of even 1
part per mille (written as 1‰) are substantial for records constructed from benthic and planktonic foraminifera tests. Such deviations imply the
emission of large amounts of isotopically-light carbon (strongly negative δ13C ratio) that likely originated through microbial methanogenesis.
Large, climate-sensitive sources for isotopically-light methane carbon in the Earth system include wetlands and most natural gas hydrates.
Dissociation: The breakdown of gas hydrate occurs by dissociation to its constituent water and gas. Gas hydrate: Gas hydrate is an ice-like solid
that forms in sediments and remains stable at certain pressure-temperature conditions. Gas hydrates have a clathrate structure: water molecules
form linked cages that enclose individual molecules of low molecular weight gas (e.g., CH4, CO2, hydrogen sulfide, ethane). Some water cages
may be empty, rendering gas hydrates non-stoichiometric compounds and making it difficult to predict exactly how much gas will be released for
dissociation of a given volume of gas hydrate. Gas hydrates in nature contain mostly methane as the trapped gas. This methane can originate from
the microbial degradation of organic carbon or from deep burial and heating of organic matter, a so-called thermogenic process similar to that
responsible for oil generation. Outside of hydrocarbon provinces, gas hydrate typically contains almost exclusively microbial methane.
Hyperthermals: Periods characterized by extremely warm climate conditions. Saturation: The percentage of sediment pore space occupied by
gas hydrate. Sulfate reduction zone (SRZ): A zone within the marine sedimentary section starting at the sediment-water interface and extending
downward to the depth at which sulfate is depleted as a result of the microbially-mediated oxidation of methane and other organic compounds.
The thickness of the SRZ varies from centimeters to tens of meters and is inversely related to the upward flux of methane toward the seafloor and
the organic matter content of the sediments. Most of the methane that enters the SRZ from below is consumed before it reaches the seafloor.
No methane leaks
Cathles 12—Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences @ Cornell University [Cathles, Lawrence
M., Larry D. Brown (Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences @ Cornell University), Milton Taam
(Electric Software, Inc.), Andrew Hunter (Professor of chemical and Biological Engineering, Cornell
University) "A commentary on "The greenhouse gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations" by R.W.
Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea." Climatic Change, 2012, pg.
http://cce.cornell.edu/EnergyClimateChange/NaturalGasDev/Documents/PDFs/FINAL%20Short%20Ver
sion%2010-4-11.pdf .
Howarth et al. were correct to highlight concerns that leakage of methane during production and transmission could significantly affect the
greenhouse impact of natural gas, especially gas extracted from shales. And we concur with them that much better data is needed to monitor this
leakage. However, our
review of their own sources finds no evidence that gas is being vented directly into
the atmosphere at rates that could justify their conclusions. In contrast their sources make clear
that there are effective technologies to reduce methane emissions to the point they are an
insignificant addition to methane’s greenhouse combustion footprint, if indeed this is not already
the case. More reasonable estimates of production losses, and more appropriate bases of
comparison (electricity and a 100 year GWP) show natural gas, including shale gas, has half to
1/3rd the greenhouse impact of coal, and thus remains an attractive transition fuel to low carbon
alternatives.
2NC—No Methane Burp Impact
Even a giant methane burp would have a miniscule effect
Gao et al. 12 [Xiang, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, C. Adam Schlosser, Andrei Sokolov, Katey Walter Anthony, Qianlai Zhuang and
David Kicklighter, “Permafrost, Lakes, and Climate-Warming Methane Feedback: What is the Worst We
Can Expect?,” May, Report No 218,
http://18.7.29.232/bitstream/handle/1721.1/70566/MITJPSPGC_Rpt218.pdf?sequence=1](AC)
Overall, these
results present, for the first time, a quantitative insight on the scale of the climatewarming feedback from permafrost thaw and subsequent CH4 lake emission. The increase in CH4 emission
due to potential Arctic/boreal lake expansion represents a weak climate-warming feedback within
this century. This is consistent with previous studies (Anisimov, 2007; Huissteden et al., 2011; Delisle, 2007) that also
imply a small Arctic lake/wetland biogeochemical climate-warming feedback. Our experimental design does not explicitly consider the wetlands
potential CH4-emissions response (Shindell et al., 2004). As previously noted, the additional saturated area projected by our model is
characterized to be lake in terms of a CH4 emission source (to gauge an upper bound). Yet, in this way, if any presumed, additional lake area
would alternatively be wetland, to first order we still account for this in terms of a CH4-emission response. Our lake identification scheme also
does not explicitly consider lake thermodynamics or thermo-geomorphologic distinction (e.g. thermokarst). Further,
buffering effects
from near-surface drainage (Huissteden et al., 2011; Avis et al., 2011) are not explicitly considered, however
these drainage effects would further weaken the already small feedback found. Other secondary factors not
explicitly considered in this study include: the insulating properties of soil organic matter (Lawrence et al., 2008), the response of CH4 emission
to soil-moisture dynamics, fire disturbance, vegetation dynamics, as well as lake freeze-depth. Nevertheless, these considerations will likely not
change our overall conclusion: the
biogeochemical climate-warming feedback via boreal and Arctic lake methane
emissions is relatively small, whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions.
Methane hydrates don’t reach the atmosphere – no impact
Kvenolden 99 [Keith A. – U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Emeritus Scientist – received a Lifetime
Achievement Award at the 6th International Conference on Gas Hydrates, “Potential Effects of Gas
Hydrate on Human Welfare”, 1999, http://www.pnas.org/content/96/7/3420.abstract \\NL]
For almost 30 years. serious interest has been directed toward natural gas hydrate, a crystalline solid
composed of water and methane, as a potential (i) energy resource, (ii) factor in global climate change, and (Wi) submarine geohazard. Although
each of these issues can affect human welfare, only (iii) is considered to be of immediate importance. Assessments
of gas hydrate as
an energy resource have often been overly optimistic, based in part on its very high methane
content and on its worldwide occurrence in continental margins. Although these attributes are attractive, geologic
settings, reservoir properties, and phase-equilibria considerations diminish the energy resource potential of natural gas hydrate. The possible
role of gas hydrate in global climate change has been often overstated. Although methane is a "greenhouse" gas in the
atmosphere, much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere , but rather
may be converted to carbon dioxide and sequestered by the hydrosphere/biosphere before reaching the
atmosphere. Thus, methane from gas hydrate may have little opportunity to affect global climate change. However, submarine geohazards
(such as sediment instabilities and slope failures on local and regional scales, leading to debris flows, slumps, slides, and possible tsunamis)
caused by gas-hydrate dissociation are of immediate and increasing importance as humankind moves to exploit seabed resources in everdeepening waters of coastal oceans. The vulnerability of gas hydrate to temperature and sea level changes enhances the instability of deep-water
oceanic sediments, and thus human activities and installations in this setting can be affected.
Evidence is inconclusive if MH release will increase global warming
Boswell 11—PhD in Geology from West Virginia University and Technology Manger for Methane
Hydrates at the National Energy Technology Laboratory for the DOE. [“Paper #1-11 METHANE
HYDRATES,” Ray Boswell, Prepared for the Resource and Supply Task Group, Working Document of
the North American Resource Development Study, 2011, accessed through Emory] // AG
Gas Hydrate linkages to Global Climate: Gas hydrate is an enormous global storehouse of organic carbon
in the form of methane gas. Over long time periods, gas hydrate can be thought of as a global capacitor
for organic carbon (Dickens, 2003), taking up methane during certain global environmental conditions,
and releasing methane during other environmental conditions. Because methane is a highly effective
greenhouse gas and rapidly oxidizes to carbon dioxide, which is a less effective but much more persistent
greenhouse gas, the release of substantial volumes of methane from gas hydrate accumulations could have
significant impacts on global climate (Archer, 2007). The actual potential for such release is not yet
well known. Early concepts such as gas hydrate release in response to sea-level and consequent
coeval hydrostatic pressure declines during Late Quaternary glacial periods have been shown to be
unlikely (Sowers, 2006), so some significant past climate changes on Earth have probably occurred
without any meaningful response/contribution from gas hydrate. Initial attempts to numerically
model the response of gas hydrate to changing climate scenarios has indicated that release of
methane would be gradual over a long time frame rather than catastrophic (Archer et al., 2009).
However, some highly significant past climate events, such as that which occurred 55 Ma ago (the
Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum) do appear to exhibit geochemical signals consistent with rapid
large-scale gas hydrate dissociation. At present, this link is not confirmed (Dickens, 2011), but it does
appear possible that gas hydrate dissociation may have supplied methane to the atmosphere, and therefore
exacerbated, past climate warming events likely initiated by other causes. Gas hydrate dissociation has
also been linked to even more severe climatic changes in Earth’s ancient past (e.g. Kennedy et al.,
2008), although the data are inconclusive (Bristow et al., 2011).
The findings to date therefore indicate that gas hydrates can conceivably play a significant role in climate
events, particularly those that are large, acute, and global in scale. A major scientific question at present
is: are we on the cusp of a similar or perhaps even more acute, event (i.e., Cui et al., 2011). Recent
studies from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Shakhova et al., 2010) and from offshore Svalbard
(Westbrook et al., 2009) suggest release of methane from the Arctic. The connection between these
releases and gas hydrate remains unclear, and it is not established if these releases are new, or
simply newly discovered. Nonetheless, while the magnitude of arctic methane releases appear to be
minor in comparison to those from other methane sources, they clearly warrant further study.
2NC—Production Not Feasible
MH production not feasible
Nikkei Weekly 13—Japanese Financial Newspaper. [“Successful methane hydrate gas test gives hope
for home-grown energy,” The Nikkei Weekly (Japan), March 18, 2013, retrieved from LexisNexis.] // AG
Natural gas production from methane hydrate will likely not become commercially viable for at
least another decade in light of technological hurdles that stand in the way of lower costs.
Methane hydrate is a sherbetlike frozen methane found in high-pressure, low-temperature environments,
such as seabeds and beneath frozen ground, making it difficult to access. It dissociates, or separates, into
water and gas when heated or depressurized.
In 2001, gas was extracted from methane hydrate in Canada for the first time using a method that
injected warm water into the sherbet. But the production method required more energy than what
was produced.
The depressurization method Japan used in its successful trial run produces vastly more energy
than the amount needed to carry out the process. But the stuff used in the trial run was obtained from
the seabed, from where extraction is costly.
Methane hydrates won’t be ready for 15-20 years
Moniz et al 11—Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems at MIT and the Director of the MIT
Energy Initiative. [“The Future of Natural Gas: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY MIT STUDY,” Ernest J.
Moinz, Chair, June 6, 2011, pp 47, accessed through Emory] // AG
Methane hydrates are unlikely to reach commercial viability for global markets for at least 15 to
20 years . Through consortia of government, industry and academic experts, the U.S., Japan, Canada,
Korea, India, China and other countries have made significant progress on locating and sampling methane
hydrates. No short-term production test has ever been attempted in a marine gas hydrate setting, but
several short-term tests (few hours to a few days) have been completed in permafrostassociated
wells in the U.S. and Canadian Arctic. Before 2015, the first research-scale, long-term (several
months or longer) production tests could be carried out by the U.S. DOE on the Alaskan North Slope
and by the Japanese MH21 project for Nankai Trough deepwater gas hydrates. The goals of these
tests are to investigate the optimal mix of production techniques to sustain high rates of gas flow over the
lifetime of a well and to assess the environmental impact of production of methane from gas hydrates.
2NC—Too Expensive
Mining for hydrates would be too expensive, and dangerous.
Lena-Katharina Döpke, and Till Requate, 2014, [The economics of exploiting gas hydrates] Energy
Economics, Volume 42, March 2014, Pages 355–364
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988313002430
To the best of our knowledge, (Walsh et al., 2009) were the first to mention gas hydrates in an economic journal. In their paper, they sum up
recent research on the resource potential of gas hydrates and estimate the gas prices at which the exploitation of gas hydrates would become
gas prices of around 7–12 $US/Mscf (US dollars per thousand standard cubic
feet) would be necessary to cover the costs involved in exploiting terrestrial hydrate deposits. For
marine hydrates, the costs of extraction would be 3.5–4 $US/Mscf higher than for a comparable
offshore deposit of conventional natural gas. In the context of offshore extraction, the authors also mention “another level
profitable. They find that
of risks which cannot yet be quantified” (p.821), which we interpret as the geological risk associated with extraction of offshore hydrates.
Economically, the discovery of gas hydrates may be beneficial for the world economy, as a) it may reduce the scarcity of fossil fuels, in
particular of natural gas, and b) as a low-carbon source of energy it can serve as a transition to zero-emission energies. Countries with access to
sea-floor resources according to Art. 77(1) UNCLOS, such as Norway, Russia, India, USA, China, Japan, New Zealand, Chile, and possibly others,
will benefit from exporting methane, but importers will also benefit from lower gas prices on the world market. On the other hand, the
even “preventive
methane exploitation” from gas hydrates contributes to global warming in two different ways, a) by
combustion and hence generation of CO2, and b) by methane leakage during the mining process.
Second, mining of the hydrates, i.e. removal of the “cement”, may also lead to the destabilization of
continental margins, and this may increase the risk of marine geohazards.
prospect has its drawbacks, since exploitation of gas hydrates may give rise to two kinds of externalities. First,
In this paper we present a model that addresses these two problems and the ongoing dissolution of the hydrates. The simple model has Arctic
methane hydrates as the only exhaustible resource whose stock is not only reduced by extraction but also by dissolution. We then assume that
economic damage is generated by a) accumulation of greenhouse gases, and b) by the risk of marine
earthquakes. To keep the model simple, we do not directly model substitutes for methane hydrates. However, we account for them in an
indirect way by assuming that there is a finite choke price on the demand side.
Our paper draws on the literature that links the exploitation of non-renewable resources to the externalities caused by releasing greenhouse
gases, e.g. Ulph and Ulph (1994), Tahvonen (1997), Hoel and Kverndokk (1996), and Farzin and Tahvonen (1996). Except for the latter, these
studies all assume complete recreation capability of the atmosphere modeled by linear decay of the pollution stock. Therefore the pollution
externality impacts on the timing of extraction but does not affect the amount extracted, and the resource stock is asymptotically reduced to a
certain level when extraction costs are sufficiently high. The main conclusion from this literature is that an optimal emission tax may be nonmonotonic, increasing in the first stage and decreasing in the final stage. Furthermore, our paper is related to studies with a focus on resource
scarcity and environmental constraints. For instance, Farzin, 1992 and Farzin, 1996 and Krautkraemer (1998), provide the basics for interpreting
the shadow values of resource extraction and greenhouse gas emissions in our model. Since the expected damage from geohazards depends on
the remaining resource stock and therefore assigns a value to a positive stock level, our model also relates to Krautkraemer (1985)and Beltratti
et al. (1994), who account for an amenity value of the resource stock.
With the ongoing
natural dissolution of the (methane hydrate) resource stock, it is not possible to maintain a positive
economically worthwhile stock of the resource. Instead, the resource stock will inevitably vanish as
time goes to infinity. This circumstance drives our main findings. If the choke price is sufficiently low compared to overall social costs,
In our paper we characterize the socially optimal exploitation paths for a resource stock of methane hydrates.
in a social optimum some of the resource will be left in situ and extraction will not only approach zero but actually will be zero at some point in
time.
If, by contrast, the choke price exceeds these overall social costs, the well-known Hotelling solution will apply, i.e. the resource will be used up
completely in finite time. Only in the case where the two magnitudes are equal can the standard result of stock-externality models be
maintained, i.e. the resource will be reduced to zero in infinite time, and extraction rates – though small – will remain positive for all time. We
also look at optimal policies for decentralizing the first-best outcome. We show that this can be done by charging a single tax on resource
extraction that accounts for both stock externalities.
2NC—Can’t Drill in the Gulf
Ocean currents prevent drilling in Gulf of Mexico
Borenstein 2k—Journalist for AP. [“Deep-sea current could make drilling hard; Powerful “Storm”
effect could hinder extraction of huge deposits of oil, natural gas and methane from the floor of the Gulf
of Mexico,” Seth Borenstein, Contra Costa Times, November 3, 200, retrieved from LexisNexis] // AG
Alvin, moving at depths of as much as 10,000 feet, measured currents of about 1.2 mph to 1.7 mph.
That doesn't sound like much, but a 2,000-foot horizontal band of water moving at that rate
produces "an enormously powerful force" not unlike a hurricane, MacDonald said. It was "a huge
mass of water, a huge mass of power," he said.
It is strong enough to knock out a pipeline or drill, and that's what has gotten scientists and oil
companies worried, Bryant said.
Bryant said the current cut "mega-furrows" more than 30 feet deep and more than 100 feet wide in
the sea floor. One gully extended for miles. That made what scientists had thought would be a flat terrain
quite eerie, MacDonald said.
Mapping doesn’t overcome drilling safety problems—drilling threatens
earthquakes, warming, and ocean acidification.
Morningstar 11 [Cory Morningstar, “Destination—Hell. Are we there yet?,” Huntington News,
Sunday, March 27, 2011—01:09, pg. http://www.huntingtonnews.net/2768
Part Four of an investigative report. This is the fourth and final installment of an investigative report uncovering and analyzing a global plan to
capture and utilize the ocean's store of methane hydrates. The investigation reflects upon the decades of planning coordinated by the world's most
powerful institutions, including the global banking and investment corporations, global fossil fuel energy corporations, United Nations, the
OECD, the United States (US) Department of Defense, US Department of Energy, the administrations of each of the leading greenhouse gasemitting states, and powerful NGOs. The report details why and how the coordinated planning evolved while keeping the public-at-large in the
dark. Finally, the report explains why methane must be considered the most lethal contributor to climate change, according to the most recent and
relevant science. By Cory Morningstar Destination – Hell. Are we there yet? Drilling and Earthquakes 16 June 2004: US
Department of
Energy meeting summary: "Alternatively, an undersea earthquake today, say off the Blake Ridge
or the coast of Japan or California might loosen and cause some of the sediment to slide down the
ridge or slump, exposing the hydrate layer to the warmer water. That in turn could cause a chain
reaction of events, leading to the release of massive quantities of methane. Another possibility is
drilling and other activities related to exploration and recovery of methane hydrates as an energy
resource. The hydrates tend to occur in the pores of sediment and help to bind it together.
Attempting to remove the hydrates may cause the sediment to collapse and release the hydrates. So,
it may not take thousands of years to warm the ocean and the sediments enough to cause massive
releases, only lots of drilling rigs. Returning to the 4 GtC release scenario, assume such a release
occurs over a one-year period sometime in the next 50 years as result of slope failure. According to the
Report of the Methane Hydrate Advisory Committee, “Catastrophic slope failure appears to be necessary to release a
sufficiently large quantity of methane rapidly enough to be transported to the atmosphere without
significant oxidation or dissolution.” In this event, methane will enter the atmosphere as methane
gas. It will have a residence time of several decades and a global warming potential of 62 times that
of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. This would be the equivalent of 248 GtC as carbon dioxide or 31 times the annual
man-made GHG emissions of today. Put another way, this would have the impact of nearly 30 years worth of GHG
warming all at once. The result would almost certainly be a rapid rise in the average air temperature, perhaps as much as 3°F
immediately. This might be tolerable if that’s as far as things go. But, just like 15,000 years ago, if the feedback mechanisms
kick in, we can expect rapid melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice and an overall temperature
increase of 30°F." Since writing the first 3 instalments of this investigative series, the race to drill methane hydrates has
begun in Japan. New Zealand, in a joint venture with Germany, is the next in line to commence. 1 February 2011: "Seabed drilling
exploration for methane hydrate in coastal waters, utilizing a world-class deep sea exploration vessel, is scheduled to start Saturday. In the
planned exploration, the Chikyu is expected to drill 100 meters to 400 meters into the seabed, which lies at a depth of 700 meters to 1,000 meters.
The geological structure of layers surrounding the hydrate, and
the degree of stability regarding drill holes and pipes,
are among the subjects to be surveyed. The Chikyu uses state-of-the-art equipment able to drill as deep as 7,000 meters under the
seabed." On 11 March 2011, the world witnessed one of the most powerful earthquakes since 1900, devastating the country of Japan. It has
resulted in anuclear catastrophe still unfolding. Lethal tsunamis followed the earthquake, and were not limited to Japan. A wildlife sanctuary
situated on a tiny atoll near Hawaii lay victim to one such resulting tsunami, wiping out thousands of endangered seabirds and other animals.
Exposure to radiationcontinues to threaten citizens as far away as California. The video below features Dr Helen Caldicott speaking in Montreal,
Canada: UN lies about nuclear threat. Caldicott has been named one of the most influential women of the 20th Century by the Smithsonian
Institute. (Filmed on 18 March 2011: 5:06) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65ptQASTKCk On
3 September 2010 and 22
February 2011, the world witnessed two deadly earthquakes in Christchurch, Aotearoa (New
Zealand). What is not widely known, is the fact that Japan announced it would commence drilling
methane hydrates on 1 February 2011. Also not widely known, is the fact that the corporation
Petrobras commenced drilling at depths of 3000 metres, off the coast of Aotearoa, into a newly
discovered fault line, around the same time last year that Christchurch started having earthquakes.
The Raukumara Basin of Aotearoa sits on a major and active fault line. The Raukumara Basin, a high seismic activity area, covers 25,000 square
kilometres, extending about 300 kilometres north and around 100 kilometres wide off East Cape in the North Island. Petrobras have been
awarded a permit for 12,330 square kilometres within the basin, extending from four kilometres off the New Zealand coast to 110 kilometres
from the coast. (20 August 2010: Govt's petroleum permit ignored environment) On 24 January 2011, a group of international and New Zealand
scientists drilled directly into South Island's Alpine Fault - a massive fault line to investigate its structure, mechanics and evolution. Vast
quantities of methane hydrates collect along geological fault lines. Japan sits atop a nexus of three of the world’s largest. On 24 February 2011,
15 days prior to Japan’s devastating earthquake, Dr Elisabetta Mariani, in an interview with BBC was asked if drilling holes in the major 'alpine'
fault running through new Zealand was a good idea. She answered: "As scientists [we can say] ... there is another important drilling going on ...
off shore the east coast of Japan ... and is going well and is successful and has not caused problems which the locals were concerned about so this
is what we told [the New Zealanders] and what we tell you as well." On
7 March 2011, in response to the Arkansas Oil
and Gas Commission, two US gas drilling companies agreed to suspend specific operations at wells
near Arkansas after their work was linked to nearby earthquakes. Both Chesapeake Energy, based in Oklahoma,
and Clarita Operating of Little Rock, informed the Arkansas Oil and Gas Commission that they have halted operation of the wells near
was a 4.7 quake – the strongest in
Arkansas in 35 years. Is it possible, that either of the massive earthquakes which devastated Japan and New Zealand, can be connected
Greenbrier and Guy. 800 earthquakes have hit the area in the past six months. One
to invasive deep drilling? As the late Carl Sagan, NASA Distinguished Public Service Medal recipient, has eloquently stated: Absence of
evidence is not evidence of absence. It appears that the recent drilling into the Nankai Trough fault line is not to blame in the case of Japan, as the
fault line which ruptured is said to be different than that of the Tokai area, where the Nankai Trough fault line exists. However, the impact from
the methane hydrate drilling, if it did proceed on 5 February 2011, as planned, is unknown. Methane hydrates, deposited on the seafloor, are
present all along the Pacific coast from Kyushu to the Tokai district.
The suggestion that human activity can cause
seismic activity is widely accepted in the scientific community. A paper in the journal Oilfield
Reviewpublished in 2000, noted that the connection between oil production and earthquakes dates
back to at least the 1920s, when geologists in South Texas noted faulting near an oil field. In May of
2010, The Royal Society releases 12 research papers in the theme issue titled 'Climate forcing of geological and geomorphological hazards'. Top
scientists call for research on climate in connection to earthquakes, landslides, tsunamis and gas-hydrate destabilisation observing that the
"ongoing rise in global average temperatures may already be eliciting a hazardous response from the geosphere." From the editors introduction:
"The sensitivity to climate change of gas hydrates, in both marine and continental settings, has long captured interest, in relation to its potential
role in past episodes of rapid warming, such as in the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), and in the context of anthropogenic
warming. In the first of a pair of papers on the subject, Maslin et al. review the current state of the science as it relates to gas hydrates as a
potential hazard. The authors note that gas hydrates may present a serious threat as the world warms, primarily through the release of large
quantities of methane into the atmosphere, thus forcing accelerated warming, but also as a consequence of their possible role in promoting
submarine slope failure and consequent tsunami generation."
The Nankai Trough subduction zone, located southwest
of Japan, is one of the most active earthquake zones on Earth. This is a region notorious for generating devastating
earthquakes and tsunamis with complex geological formations caused by tectonic plate thrusts. On 31 August 2010scientists returned from the
first ever riser drilling operations in Seismogenic Zone, an operation named Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE). The
NanTroSEIZE expedition 332 completed expedition on 11 December 2010. Stage 1 (2007-2008) of the operation included discovery of methane
hydrates. A third-party representative of the venture is Halliburton. There are numerous methane-hydrate deposits within the oceans surrounding
Japan, shown in red on the map to the far left. They are found in the Nankai Trough, on the Chyoshi Spur, the eastern portion of the Japan Sea,
and the southern Okhotsk Sea. The GSJ has calculated that these deposits combined, would yield 6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas (over a
hundred times the amount consumed per year in Japan). (Source: Geological Survey of Japan) Image on right represents global methane hydrates.
The overview of the first offshore production test of methane hydrate in the Nankai Trough undertaken by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National
Corporation (JOGMEC) can be read here. The final selection on the test location will be made by the end of March 2011. The Japanese citizens
have been inundated with untold pain and suffering. It is unconscionable to expect the Japanese people to further risk themselves and their
children, for corporate wealth, yet, that is exactly what the Japanese government, with support from the Canadian Government and other major
greenhouse-gas emitting states are expecting: · 26 December 2007, Bloomberg, Japan Mines 'Flammable Ice,' Flirts With Environmental
Disaster: ''Fifty-five million years ago the world's climate was catastrophically changed when volcanoes melted natural gas frozen in the seabed.
Now Japan plans to drill for the same icy crystals to end its reliance on imported energy ... A
mass release of methane into the
sea and the atmosphere is a risk for global warming ... Massive landslides at the ocean floor must be
avoided when drilling at the Nankai Trough.'' · 27 September 2010, The Guardian, Japan to drill for
controversial 'fire ice': "Concerns had been raised that digging for frozen methane would destabilise the
methane beds, which contain enough gas worldwide to snuff out most complex life on earth ...
Jogmecacknowledges the problems, admitting mining of methane ice could lead to landslides and the devastation of marine life in the mining
areas." · 3 October 2010, autobloggreen, Japan's trade ministry seeks $1b investment to drill for controversial methane hydrates: "There's a big
risk involved, too. If the drilling is unsuccessful, some experts predict the attempt could destabilize the methane beds and trigger an
environmental disaster of epic proportions. So, good luck!" · 15-17 November 2010, International Symposium on Methane Hydrates Resources
from Mallik to Nankai Trough: "The primary goal of the symposium will be to provide an overview of recent research achievements by Japan to
characterize methane hydrate in the Nankai Trough area, and by Canada and Japan to quantify the production response of permafrost gas hydrate
in the Mackenzie Delta."
In 2010, the Geological Society of America publishes a report: Massive methane
release triggered by seafloor erosion offshore southwestern Japan. Their analysis is strikingly
similar to the Storegga Slide, an event that resulted in a tsunami as high as 25 metres, as described
in part II of this investigative report: ''We hypothesize that erosion of the seafloor via bottom-water
currents unroofed buoyant hydrate-laden sediments and subhydrate overpressured free gas zones
beneath the anticline. Once triggered, gas-driven erosion created a positive feedback mechanism,
releasing gas and eroding hydrate-bearing sediment. We suggest that erosive currents in deepwater methane hydrate provinces act as hair triggers, destabilizing kilometer-scale swaths of the
seafloor where large concentrations of underlying overpressured methane exist. Our analysis
suggests that kilometer-scale degassing events are widespread, and that deep-water hydrate
reservoirs can rapidly release methane in massive quantities.'' Kalev Leetaru, Senior Research Scientist for Content
Analysis at the Institute for Computing in the Humanities, Arts, and Social Science at the University of Illinois Coordinator of Information
Technology and Coordinator of Information Technology and Research at the University of Illinois Cline Center for Democracy, is unequivocal in
his paper titled Methane Hydrate: An Apocalyptic Panacea:
''In our never-ending search to quench our thirst for
energy-producing resources, we could end up destroying our planet. This remote, but very real
possibility is made all the more real by the global impact of methane, both in the explosive bursts it
often triggers on its release, and as a greenhouse gas once it has been released into the atmosphere.''
On a side-note, scientists are planning to drill all the way through the planet's miles-thick crust to
Earth's deep, hot mantle in order to retrieve samples for the first time by 2020. Will we drill
ourselves to death? It appears so. The tragedy is this - solar and wind have never been known to cause meltdowns, tsunamis,
landslides, cancers or sickness. Yet we all know that a society which is self-sufficient is the greatest threat to the fossil fuel economy and current
power structures that exist today. This system has been and will continue to be, protected at all costs. Human life is expendable whereas corporate
profits, economic growth and quarterly gains have all become absolutely sacrosanct. We are now past peak oil (International Energy Agency,
2006). This is leading to an investment drive for Arctic oil and gas, which holds 13 percent of the world's remaining oil and 30 percent of its gas.
As conventional oil declines, the price of oil increases. Insatiable corporate lust for further profit results in dangerous high-risk drilling
operations, while even the most expensive regions become economically viable. Oil and gas corporations plan extensive drilling in the Arctic
regions. In September 2010 a UK corporation, Cairn Energy, commenced drilling for oil in Greenland's Arctic waters. In January 2011, BP
received approval to drill for oil off the Russian Arctic shelf. Most revealing, on 16 March 2011, a US presidential commission charged with
investigating the Gulf of Mexico oil spill issued recommendations for approval and regulating of oil drilling off the coast of Alaska. Today:
Arctic Feedback Time Bomb “All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second, it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted
as self-evident." - Arthur Schopenhauer Above: Geographical reconstruction for the PETM from the PALEOMAP Project (www.scotese.com).
Boxes indicate reconstructed surface temperature anomalies for the PETM relative to Paleocene background temperatures based on oxygen
isotopes, Mg/Ca ratios and TEX86 (compiled by Appy Sluijs). The PETM was a mass ocean extinction event, characterized by ocean warming,
ocean acidification and ocean anoxia. In 2006, a group of researchers found that during the PETM, tropical algae migrated into the Arctic Ocean
when temperatures rose to 24ºC. A recent study in 2010 discovered that even though the Pliocene Epoch (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago) was
approximately 19ºC warmer than today, CO2 levels were only slightly higher than they are today. [21] Ocean Ice Meltdown + Permafrost Thaw +
Venting Methane Hydrates + Tundra Warming/Nitrous Oxide = Arctic Methane Time Bomb. Today's
global warming of less
than 1ºC has enabled the oceans to warm to the extent that the unimaginable has happened. The
fuse has reached the Arctic methane hydrates, which are melting on the ocean floor. This single factor is
the most dire emergency to all life on the planet today. Detonating the Methane Time Bomb If this time bomb is allowed to detonate, it will wipe
out life on this planet. Dr.
Ira Leifer, researcher at the Marine Science Institute:"The Arctic has enough
buried methane that a one percent release would quadruple global concentrations of atmospheric
methane. That's the equivalent of increasing CO2 by a factor of ten.... It would be pretty close to
the end of civilization as we know it, and this could happen. It doesn't mean it's going to happen … but we want people to be
aware [of the possibility]." (In a follow-up communication from Ira Leifer, for clarification, he notes that a factor of 10 has huge uncertainties,
that it would probably be something like that but worse. Methane (CH4) has the same forcing on a 20 year time scale (IPCC, 2007) as CO2, but
does not overlap with water vapor bands, and is not saturated in its absorption bands, unlike CO2, hence increasing factor of 4 to factor of 10.)
Although governments have been targeting a 2ºC temperature rise – which would be cataclysmic – today (barring technologies to cool the planet
and remove CO2 from the atmosphere safely) we are absolutely committed to at least a doubling of today's temperature increase (which is 0.8ºC)
within a few decades. (The Ramanathan and Feng 2008 paper, based on GHG emissions alone (without feedbacks), demonstrates a 2.4ºC
eventual warming if atmospheric greenhouse gas forcing continues at today's levels: "Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as
envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C.")
This paper cites a risk range of up to 4.3°C as the commitment. All the components for the runaway scenario that James Hansen speaks of are
now operant at 0.8ºC. Abrupt runaway warming adding an additional 1ºC per year is a possibility that could start anytime. This understanding
comes from ice core studies of the Younger Dryas abrupt global temperature change event .
The end of the Younger Dryas,
about 11,500 years ago, was particularly abrupt. In Greenland, temperatures rose 10°C (18°F) in a
decade or less. Acknowledging that this rate of warming can occur from an ice age low, as
terrifying as it is, is most critical to our understanding of abrupt, non-linear climate change. With
the precautionary principle in mind, we must assume that such a non-linear response is more likely
today than in the past, due to the continued pouring of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere
during an already warm period (Shakhova et al., Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere
from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf). The Arctic Shelf is, in fact, already perforated.
This means it has already reached – or gone beyond – the thaw point. The large underwater permafrost "lid" over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf,
specifically, is perforated and methane continues to escape into the atmosphere (Shakhova et al.). This
may cause a 12-times
increase of the modern atmospheric methane burden with consequent catastrophic greenhouse warming. In 2008,
Shakhova and Semiletov warned that it is "highly possible for abrupt release at any time." These findings represent the closest humanity has ever
approached to a literal doomsday scenario. Venting methane represents the single most catastrophically dangerous effect of global warming to all
life on Earth. In addition to ocean warming, Shakhova is of the belief that there are other factors also contributing to the melting of the hydrates,
for example, the flow from rivers. [22] The
rise in the atmospheric concentration of methane had stabilized
since year 2000, however, since 2006 it has been increasing again. Climate scientists have
determined that these methane emissions are carbon feedback, meaning, the warming of the planet
is causing the planet to emit more methane. Methane carbon feedbacks place us firmly on the brink
of runaway global warming and climate disruption. The most feared effect of global warming has commenced. Methane
carbon feedbacks are adding to the heat radiation of global warming by increasing the atmospheric methane concentration. Furthermore, the
increase in the concentration of atmospheric methane continues to accelerate. The release of methane into the atmosphere is the greatest threat to
date in the realm of our current climate emergency. Yet, scientists, in general, have been remarkably silent on even this issue, the gravest of risks.
Some scientists have now taken the position that they cannot make any claims that this is a "new" threat without knowing whether the methane
hydrate emissions are new or not. However, this position makes no difference to our plight and perhaps even makes the threat worse, as methane
gas escaping from methane hydrates today will increase, most likely rapidly, as the global temperature increases. 250 Plumes of Dire Warning
Sonar data from the West Svalbard continental margin recorded in 2008 have shown the presence of methane bubbles emanating from the seabed
up-slope, from the upper limit of the methane hydrate stability zone. In the same area, the ocean has warmed by 1°C during the last 30 years. In
2009, it was discovered that 250 plumes of methane gas bubbles had erupted from the seabed off the West Svalbard continental margin
(Westbrook et al.). Ronald Cohen of the Carnegie Institution for Science in Washington, DC, says it is a striking result: "What's amazing is that
they see such enormous quantities of methane." The methane being released from hydrates in the 600-square-kilometre area studied likely adds
up to 27 kilotonnes a year, which suggests the entire hydrate deposit around Svalbard could be releasing 20 megatonnes a year. If this process
becomes widespread along Arctic continental margins, tens of teragrams of methane per year could be released into the ocean. At present, most
of the methane reacts with the oxygen in the water to form carbon dioxide, another greenhouse gas.
In sea water, this forms carbonic acid, which adds to further ocean acidification. The Arctic ocean
water is acidifying rapidly. Research indicates that 10% of the Arctic Ocean will be corrosively
acidic by 2018; 50% by 2050; and 100% by 2100. In October 2009, Professor Jean-Pierre Gattuso,
of France's Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, said: "Over the whole planet, there will
be a threefold increase in the average acidity of the oceans, which is unprecedented during the past
20 million years." To date, almost none of the Arctic (or anywhere else) has been surveyed in a way
that might detect methane releases like the Svalbard releases. Two things are certain: the two
shelves – the East Siberian Arctic Shelf and the West Svalbard continental shelf – are in motion to
emit a massive amount of methane; and the IPCC has omitted methane feedbacks, the most
dangerous aspect of climate change, from reports and models. Shakhova's studies have been critical in understanding
the dire urgency we have before us. Prior to Shakhova's findings, scientists long feared that this scenario could happen, generating huge positive
feedbacks in the enhanced greenhouse effect from GHG emissions, but assumed methane escaping into the atmosphere was not a possibility for at
least another century. This delay-in-release theory, now proven to be mistaken, was based upon scientists' assumptions and their models with
minimal evidence. This is just one example of why we must stop modelling when we are already acutely aware we are in the greatest emergency
our species has ever faced. Models, based on future predictions (which have already proven to be dangerous, optimistic and incorrect –
minimizing our sense of an emergency), enable a society and state governments to deny our current reality, effectively eradicating humanity's
possibility for survival. Sergei Zimov, a scientist studying climate change in Russia's Arctic for 30 years, fears that as the permafrost thaws and as
the organic matter in it becomes exposed to the air, global warming predictions will have to be drastically accelerated, even beyond some of the
most pessimistic forecasts. Zimov: The thawing permafrost "will lead to a type of global warming which will be impossible to stop…. The
deposits of organic matter in these soils are so gigantic that they dwarf global oil reserves." Zimov continues: "US government statistics show
mankind emits about 7 billion tons of carbon a year. Permafrost areas hold 500 billion tons of carbon, which can fast turn into greenhouse
gases…. If you don't stop emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere ... the Kyoto Protocol (an international pact aimed at reducing
greenhouse emissions) will seem like childish prattle." The video below, filmed in January 2008, shows thin ice overlying the methane seep at
Atqasuk, which is bubbling like boiling water. (2010: 2:43) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KlBev6N5m8&feature=player_embedded It is
critical to reiterate how abrupt shifts in climate can occur in very short timescales. Ice core evidence is key. Greenland ice core records show that
during the last glacial stage (100,000 – 11,500 years ago) the temperature there alternately warmed and cooled several times by more than 10ºC.
This was accompanied by major climate change around the northern hemisphere, felt particularly strongly in the North Atlantic region. Each
warm and cold episode took just a few decades to develop. Most of Earth's extinction events have now been linked to extreme climate changes
and for most of these extinction events, methane hydrates have been cited as playing a role. Today, we CAN reduce our CO2 emissions from
fossil fuels, whereas we WILL NOT BE ABLE TO reduce methane emissions once they begin to accelerate once they begin to accelerate from
carbon feedback. Such massive natural forces will take over and change our world and be absolutely out of our control. Such an event will
initially likely result in the melting of the Antarctic icecap, which would raise sea levels by 50 metres, as well as, completely change the climates
of the world. It is therefore beyond obvious that today's 0.8ºC temperature rise is ALREADY too high to keep the Arctic permafrost safe.
Therefore, in order to avoid the possible catastrophic methane feedback that could be imminent, we must prepare to cool down the planet
immediately, instead of continuing to aim for a deadly 2ºC target – recently revised upwards by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
from a dangerous level to an extremely dangerous level. In the following video titled Methane Hydrates: Natural Hazard or Natural Resource?
(2008 | 53:08) Renowned geochemist Miriam Kastner discusses whether or not methane hydrates are a hazard to climate change. 19:20 into the
video Kastner shows fascinating film footage which clearly demonstrates the extreme instability of hydrates. Ultimately, melting and venting
hydrates will, on our current emissions path, prove to be deadly. Ultimately, drilling hydrates to burn further gas will also prove to be deadly. The
only solution is to declare a planetary state of emergency – to stop burning all fossil fuels. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSTm6cZjO14
Compromised Science | Serving the Propaganda Machine "It's difficult to get a man to understand something if his salary depends upon his not
understanding it." — Upton Sinclair The role of scientists in explaining the implications of non-decision is critical, yet scientists have been
remarkably reticent to publicly criticize what they have privately slammed as totally unacceptable and inadequate targets. The few scientists who
are vocal run the risk of being effectively ignored, ridiculed or silenced due to corporate-controlled media and the psychological manipulation of
society. 11 January 2011: In an interview with Dr. Peter Carter, a founding director of the Canadian Association of Physicians for the
Environment,Carter accurately conveys our dire reality: "Tragically, with few noted individual exceptions (such as John Holdren, James Hansen,
Hans Shellnhuber, Kevin Anderson, Andrew Glikson), the climate scientists, and all the science organizations, are sticking to their policy of what
is, in effect, dangerous climate change denial. They avoid talking 'dangerous climate change' or warning of climate catastrophe. To eradicate any
doubt on accelerating climate dangers, climate scientists would have to say and explain how today's unavoidable amount and duration of global
warming, climate disruption, and ocean acidification are now catastrophically dangerous to our survival and to most of life." Carter continues:
"According to Stephen Schneider, 'The
IPCC does not determine risks and does not define what would
constitute dangerous interference with the climate system. The IPCC says that defining the
dangerous climate change is a value judgment that only the policymakers can make.' (The late Stephen
Schneider's website is here and he discusses the issue in this paper.) The scientists in general are sticking to this policy. National and international
climate policy discussions are being based formally on the absurd assumption that dangerous climate interference is still some time in the future
that can still be avoided, so there is no emergency. James Hansen asked the climate scientists to support his 2008 public statement that 'We really
have reached a point of a planetary emergency,' but none have. With no prospect of rapid drastic emissions reductions, we all need to be most
gravely concerned for the future of humanity and all life. We need climate scientists to understand that public and formal silence on the
catastrophic climate change dangers (or risks) to the huge, most-vulnerable human populations, to the future of civilization and to humanity is, in
effect, a powerful value judgement." It is beyond reckless for scientists to continue to insist on, thus wait for, absolute proof. Society must not
accept this. Rather, we must demand action based on the risk of unparalleled magnitude, which embraces the precautionary principle. We
continue to ignore methane in the same way that world governments and scientists continue to ignore the global food security crisis we will face
if temperatures are allowed to further increase. The
universally recognized risk science formula is Risk =
Probability x Magnitude. This is a precautionary formula when it comes to large damaging
magnitudes. The IPCC assesses probability for the policy makers, but does not include magnitude.
To make matters worse, the probability results are derived from computer models invented by the climate scientists. The probability, is in fact,
only as reliable as the models, and the data fed into the models. The models are all experimental – the computer runs are called experiments.
Therefore global heating due to methane hydrate presents a massive risk of planetary catastrophe – today. We are in an abrupt global greenhouse
gas heating event right now, with the atmospheric concentration of global warming greenhouse gases being increased thousands of times faster
than any previous heating event in the history of planet Earth. By waiting for "absolute" proof, we are effectively guaranteeing that we will have
no chance in hell at preventing runaway climate change once these irreversible feedbacks are fully operation .
To wait until these
feedbacks are ABSOLUTELY underway just so we can say there is no scientific "uncertainty" is
nothing less than progenycidal negligence. Imagine if you will, that it is 1 a.m. You are awake in
your home. You look outside only to see, to your horror, that your neighbour's house is on fire.
Maybe they are sleeping – should you wake them up? Maybe they are enjoying a glass of wine and
would rather not be disturbed. What should you do? What if they don't have any house insurance?
Should you wait until the next day and check with them first? What if their children become
frightened by the fire? You don’t know with 100% certainty that it will keep burning. It may go out
on its own. Maybe it's best not to tell them. Of course this is ridiculous. You would call the emergency number immediately
because you recognized an emergency. So why are we not screaming "Emergency!" at the top of our lungs, when our entire planet is burning up
and all of our children are in it? All of the climate change assessment projections are based on computer models developed by climate science
modellers. If the models lack reliable data the projections cannot be relied on. All of the model results have wide ranges of uncertainty. The 2007
IPCC Report used the statistical mean of these wide ranges of results, up to the boundary of a 90 percent ‘confidence level’. The range is assumed
to achieve practically full scientific certainty, however, a wide range has to mean a high level of uncertainty. This clever playing with numbers
practice is in violation of the precautionary principle (adopted by the UNFCCC in 1992) which affirms that where there is a threat of climate
change, the lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent the threat. Had the IPCC respected
this principle from the adoption and onset, they would have explicitly considered risks of higher temperatures and greater impacts above the
mean, up to and outside the boundary of a 90 percent confidence level. They would have explicitly considered, thus included, dynamical melting
of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, and non–linear responses to drivers of climate change. This would have provided the world a far more
accurate measure of the climate crisis, a crisis allowed to escalate into the emergency situation that we now find ourselves in today. The Earth's
temperature has increased 0.8ºC. While CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 34 percent, methane gas concentrations have
skyrocketed – increasing a staggering 158 percent. Yet, the scientists essentially disregard methane as a major issue. Couple this with the fact that
methane is 72 to 100 times more heat trapping than CO2 in the short term and the phrase "don't scare the horses" comes to mind. The climate
system turns out to be far more sensitive than the IPCC has assumed for their global temperature projection models and their global climate
change assessment. All of the climate change assessment depends on the value calculated and used for the ‘climate sensitivity’. The climate
sensitivity is provided from the results of computer models. All of the models give an immense range - particularly for the upper most sensitive
range. 19 October 2010, Rolf Schuttenhelm: "Climate sensitivity is a term used for the expected atmospheric temperature rise for a doubling of
CO2 concentrations. Combining all the relevant atmospheric research published up to the end of 2004, the IPCC in its 2007 Fourth Assessment
Report (WG1, chapter 2) reached the conclusion climate sensitivity would be between 2 and 4.5 degrees Centigrade, with a 3C rise as ‘best
estimate’. World leading climate researchers of NASA (James Hansen) and for instance the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Hans
Joachim Schellnhuber) have since argued true sensitivity could be twice as high when including slow climate feedbacks, like Arctic methane,
deep-sea methane or increased biodegradation of ecosystems, leading to further CO2 emissions, all following an initial (industrial) CO2 induced
temperature rise. These slow feedbacks lead to the runaway warming scenarios with exponential damage. Somewhere over the climate politicsfilled years of 2008 and 2009 the world lost track of the basics of climate science. While the new insights and publications on slow-acting climate
feedbacks were worrisome to many – others hoped for comfort in denying the basic triggering factor, the climate effects of high anthropogenic
CO2 emissions, mostly due to the abundant use of fossil fuels. Although the IPCC report clearly mentions fast-acting climate feedbacks, like
water vapour and ice albedo, as important contributors to expected temperature rises, somehow we allowed a flawed focus to develop on the
molecule of CO2 itself. Meanwhile we risk losing focus on the slow climate feedbacks. If new climate research proves the findings (‘adding slow
feedbacks creates another doubling of warming’ -> 6 degrees (PDF)) of people like Hansen and Schellnhuber right, then communicators of
climate science should really consider to once again extent the definition of true climate sensitivity – or establish a new term that clearly includes
the (long-term) CO2-temperature responses of other Earth systems than solely the atmosphere, like oceans and terrestrial biosphere. " Amongst
the most obvious of climate change facts is that abrupt greenhouse gas heat energy situation is happening today, yet scientists are currently doing
research into the "probability of abrupt climate change." If this is not a complete reflection of our self delusion and denialism – I'm not certain
what is. Just consider the well known IPCC 10,000 year graphs of temperature and radiative forcing. The increase in today's temperature, CO2
and methane is a vertical line. This abrupt rate of heating has never happened before – indeed we are warming over 10 times faster than the ice
core record, and this is will become 25 times faster by 2100. Greenhouse gas levels now exceed anything seen over the past 800,000 years or
more. Scientists, after telling us for decades we must adapt to a catastrophic 2ºC, are now producing papers on how we will have to adapt to 4ºC.
This is modeling madness. By doing this the scientists are exposing humanity to a huge risk of global climate catastrophe. This madness is
effectively preventing any possibility of an emergency climate response. Modelling for future catastrophe, is effectively distracting us from the
climate emergency we face, dead on, today. Further madness has made its presence known. As methane hydrate melting and venting accelerates –
securing our path to extinction – scientists have now begun to do modelling on the hydrates. Recently, it appears that leading methane scientists,
who have been instrumental in sounding the methane alarm (based on their observations that the warming Arctic is driving the thaw and methane
venting due to anthropogenic climate change), are being pressured by other scientists to provide "absolute proof" that the thaw and venting have
not been occurring for reasons other than human-made warming. If my daughter is pushed off the playground equipment, causing a broken arm –
her arm needs a cast. Urgently. It makes no difference who pushed her. Given the unparalleled enormous risks, the precautionary principle should
certainly take precedence. The risk formula can be applied for such a colossal catastrophic impact, even when there is too little data to calculate a
reliable probability. The grim reality coupled with common sense tells us unequivocally that the Arctic temperature is only going one way –
upward. Therefore, at some point it will hit the thaw point (if it has not done so already) and no modeling is necessary to understand this simple
fact. "Catastrophic emissions cannot be ruled out." That is a main statement when pouring over scientific papers on methane. It reads like a
disclaimer along with the cautious language of possible, could, and other select language that allows us to continue denying our reality. Today,
the majority of published climate science is all framed to allow the fossil fuel industry to not only survive, but continue growing and globalizing.
When reviewing scientific papers, one cannot find any references that address the absolute necessity of stopping fossil fuel combustion. The most
important component of stabilizing our planet's climate simply is not addressed. It is both revealing and ominous that proponents of the
exploitation, which includes scientists, are suggesting that we now have to extract the methane to make the hydrates safe. Extracting the methane
is unavoidably dangerous as this would depressurize the local environment. The
gas extracted from the methane hydrates
will be burned to drive the fossil fuel world economy – emitting huge amounts of CO2 in the
process. All of the IPCC scenarios currently used, accept that our world economies are dependent
and locked into fossil fuels - thereby legitimizing the fossil fuel industry.
AT: Peak Oil
1NC Frontline—Peak Oil
You should ignore all of their ev about Peak Oil – US oil shale and Canadian tar
sands are creating a geopolitical and economic revolution
Mead 12 – Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities @ Bard College [Walter Russell Mead, “The
Energy Revolution Part One: The Biggest Losers,” The American Interest, July 8, 2012, pg.
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/07/08/the-energy-revolution-part-one-the-biggestlosers/]
Over the past year, we’ve
been watching a geopolitical revolution get underway. It’s much bigger and more
consequential than the Arab Spring, though the legacy media are giving it much less play. It will rearrange the global
chessboard, improving the position of some powers, weakening others. It is a powerful boost to
American power, reducing America’s strategic and economic liabilities while adding considerably
to its assets. And it dramatically changes the long term outlook for, among other things, the US dollar. In
line with Via Meadia‘s policy of trying to focus attention on the most consequential events of the time, we will be following this story as it
unfolds, looking at the implications of the shifts now underway for world politics, the US economy, our domestic politics, and the green
movement.
While the chattering classes yammered on about American decline and peak oil, a quite different
future is taking shape. A world energy revolution is underway and it will be shaping the realities of
the 21st century when the Crash of 2008 and the Great Stagnation that followed only interest historians. A new age of
abundance for fossil fuels is upon us. And the center of gravity of the global energy picture is
shifting from the Middle East to… North America.
The two biggest winners look to be Canada and the United States. Canada, with something like two
trillion barrels worth of conventional oil in its tar sands, and the United States with about a trillion
barrels of shale oil , are the planet’s new super giant energy powers. Throw in natural gas and coal,
and the United States is better supplied with fossil fuels than any other country on earth. Canada and
the United States are each richer in oil than Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia combined.
Further bolstering America’s new geopolitical edge, the rest of the western hemisphere is also rich in oil. Venezuela is now believed to have more
oil that Saudi Arabia, and Brazil’s offshore discoveries make it a significant factor in world oil markets as well.
Peak oil is a fiction – North America is awash in hydrocarbons. It will solve their
economy internal link
Green 12 - An environmental scientist and policy analyst @ American Enterprise Institute [Kenneth P.
Green, “North America’s energy wealth,” American Enterprise Institute| July 9, 2012, 11:53 am, pg.
http://www.aei-ideas.org/2012/07/north-americas-energy-wealth/
For decades now, the energy-narrative of North America, particularly the United States has been one of energy
scarcity. We’ve been told, repeatedly, that the U.S. has surpassed “peak oil,” and 6 years ago, people were so worried about natural gas
supplies that we were talking about importing liquified natural gas from abroad (More on that here).
But the narrative of energy scarcity in North America is a fiction: We are not only energy-wealthy, we
are energy-wealthy beyond most people’s comprehension. Energy policy analyst Mark Mills spells out the energy
potential of North America in a new report published by the Manhattan Institute.
Some of the key findings of the report are:
The United States, Canada, and Mexico are awash in hydrocarbon resources: oil, natural gas, and
coal. The total North American hydrocarbon resource base is more than four times greater than all
the resources extant in the Middle East. And the United States alone is now the fastest-growing
producer of oil and natural gas in the world.
•
• An affirmative policy to expand extraction
and export capabilities for all hydrocarbons over the next two
decades could yield as much as $7 trillion of value to the North American economy, with $5 trillion
of that accruing to the United States, including generating $1–$2 trillion in tax receipts to federal
and local governments.
They can’t solve the global debt crisis – It makes their impact inevitable
Wolf 12 [Martin Wolf, A wave of sovereign and banking crises,” Financial Times, Published
9:37 AM, 11 Jul 2012 Last update 9:37 AM, 11 Jul 2012, pg.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/European-crisis-US-economy-fiscal-consolidationau-pd20120711-W3UEP?opendocument&src=rss]
It is nearly five years since financial turmoil broke upon an unsuspecting world, in August 2007. So how are crisis-stricken high income countries
doing? Badly, is the only answer.
Of the six largest high income economies (plus the eurozone), only those of the US and Germany are
above previous peaks. Since the US was the epicentre of the early shocks, its recovery has been relatively good. Yet none of
these countries can be happy with its performance. While US gross domestic product has been more buoyant than that of
these other countries, its unemployment rate more than doubled, from 4.7 per cent in July 2007 to 10 per cent in October 2009.
Since then its unemployment has fallen only a little. But the US has still had a better performance than the eurozone, whose economy is stagnant
and whose latest rate of unemployment is 11.1 per cent, against 8.2 per cent in the US.
Economies stagnate, while policy is aggressive. The highest short-term interest rate offered by any of the central banks of the big high-income
economies is the 0.75 per cent offered by the European Central Bank. Balance
sheets of central banks have also doubled in
the big high-income countries, relative to GDP, since 2007. Japan, the US and UK continue to run very large fiscal deficits
for peacetime. Yet despite huge fiscal deficits, long-term interest rates on Japanese, US and UK
government bonds are very low, at 0.8, 1.5 and 1.6 per cent, respectively.
David Levy, of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, labels this conjuncture of sluggish economies with huge policy
stimuli a “ contained depression ”. The explanation is clear: a number of important economies are struggling
with excessive leverage, particularly in their household and financial sectors. In the US, for example, total
private sector debt rose from 112 per cent of GDP in 1976 to a peak of 296 per cent in 2008 (see chart). This ratio had fallen back to 250 per cent
by the end of the first quarter of 2012, which is where it was in 2003. In 2007, US gross private borrowing was 29 per cent of GDP. In 2009,
2010 and 2011, however, it was negative.
Above all, private sectors are running large surpluses of income over spending. In the US, the financial balance of
the private sector turned from a deficit of 2.4 per cent of GDP in the third quarter of 2007 to a surplus of 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of
2009. This massive shift would surely have caused a huge depression if the government had been unwilling to run offsetting fiscal deficits. That
is how the depression was contained.
The US is the most important of the crisis-hit economies. But it is not the only one to have experienced large private sector retrenchment: so has
the UK. In fact, the International Monetary Fund forecasts that the private sectors of all the large high-income countries will be in either balance
or surplus this year (see chart). It follows that these countries must be running large current account surpluses or large fiscal deficits. Germany is
doing the former. Others are running fiscal deficits. Since
these big countries are unlikely to be able to run large
current account surpluses together (with whom?), they have to run fiscal deficits once their private
sectors run huge surpluses. These surpluses, in turn, are partly explained by the desire to de-leverage, partly by unwillingness to
borrow and partly by the inability or unwillingness of the financial sector to lend. All this, then, is the painful hangover after
the great credit binge .
No resource wars – The academic lit on this issue is strong and deep
Verhoeven 12 - Lecturer of Politics and International Relations @ Oxford University. [Harry
Verhoeven, “Dambisa Moyo’s Resource War Argument is Flawed, Politics in Spire, Posted on June 29,
2012 , pg. http://politicsinspires.org/2012/06/dambisa-moyos-resource-war-argument-is-flawed/
One of Moyo’s controversial arguments is that China’s ascendency doesn’t just put tremendous pressure on commodity markets, but is likely to
represent such a big demand shock that supply of key resources simply can’t keep up. The consequence, for Moyo, is then that as countries —
and the planet as a whole — run out of resources, this will trigger violent conflict (e.g. “Water Wars”) between different states and communities
within states in an attempt to maintain their commodity entitlements. Moyo was thus uncriticically regurgitating the old Malthusian argument
about “tragedies of the commons” occurring, mostly in developing countries, with population growth and environmental factors as the cause of
growing poverty and civil strife.
Yet there
is a strong and deep academic literature, that draws on extensive interdisciplinary evidence
from economics, political science, anthropology and history, which shows how simplistic and
misguided such arguments about “resource wars” are, both when approached theoretically and
through Asian or African case studies. Both historically and contemporarirly, growing resource
scarcity does not tend to lead to conflict but to cooperation, even (or perhaps especially) in regions like the
Middle East and the Horn of Africa. Moreover, the idea that wars are caused by exogenous
environmental triggers — as opposed to endogenous political-economic drivers — has always been very convenient
for powerful groups who try to depolicitise asymmetries in power and wealth and argue that
scarcity is not man-made but really an Act of God that we can’t or shouldn’t contest.
2NC—No Peak Oil
No peak oil—their data sets are wrong
Lynch 7/7—MIT, researcher at the Energy Laboratory and Center for International Studies, president
of the US Association for Energy Economics. [“Peak Oil 4: The Urban Legend Of Inadequate
Discoveries,” Michael Lynch, Forbes, 7 July 2014] // AG
In my first piece on peak oil, I included a graph showing discoveries and production, and some
commented that this seemed to invalidate my arguments since discoveries have not been replacing
production for decades. This is another example of the ignorance of many who comment on the peak
oil issue, and I will clarify.
The term “discoveries” refers to estimates, at the time reported, of the amount of oil discovered.
These estimates are frequently revised, sometimes down but on average up, as the fields are better
understood and recovery improves over time with better technology and more investment. This is
what the industry (and geologists) refer to as “reserve growth”. The initial people in the current
wave of neo-Malthusian arguments known as peak oil, especially Jean Laherrere, argued that reserve
growth only occurred in the US and represented the use of the term “proved reserves” representing
P90 or 90% probability estimates, instead of the more accurate “proved plus probable reserves”
otherwise P50 or 50% probability estimates, which should on average be accurate.
No supporting data was ever presented to confirm this argument, and it has been refuted again
and again by others in the industry, including the source of the data, a company now part of the IHS
corporation, which Campbell and Laherrere relied on for their reserve data. Efforts to refute this, by
arguing that there is no new technology or that production trends can provide accurate field
reserve estimates, have ranged from incorrect to laughable.
This explains why, despite the fact that “discoveries” have been deficient in replacing production for
so long without any decline in proved reserves for decades: res erve additions to existing fields
typically outpaces new discoveries in any given year. The practice of postdating these additions to the
year of the initial discovery in some data sets, so as used in the graph shown, misleads the novices into
thinking that oil supplies are becoming more scarce, when in fact they are easily keeping pace.
Peak oil advocates try to undermine this argument by pointing to the late-1980s reserve revisions in
some Middle East producers as being ‘spurious’ and intended to lead to higher production quotas
within OPEC. (They mistakenly believe that OPEC adopted a formula using reserves and capacity,
among other things, to set quotas. It was considered, but never adopted.) However, they tend to
completely ignore the fact that excluding those revisions still leaves us with increasing reserves.
Thus, one of the major pillars of the peak oil movement, inadequate discoveries, is shown to be
nothing more than a misinterpretation of a technical term used by the industry, plus gullibility by
the supporters of peak oil advocates.
They are just wrong - The facts have changed
Monbiot 12—[George Monbiot, “We were wrong on peak oil. There's enough to fry us all
guardian.com. uk, Monday 2 July 2012 15.30 EDT , pg.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/02/peak-oil-we-we-wrong
The facts have changed, now we must change too. For the past 10 years an unlikely coalition of geologists,
oil drillers, bankers, military strategists and environmentalists has been warning that peak oil – the
decline of global supplies – is just around the corner. We had some strong reasons for doing so: production had slowed, the price had risen
sharply, depletion was widespread and appeared to be escalating. The first of the great resource crunches seemed about to strike.
Among environmentalists it was never clear, even to ourselves, whether or not we wanted it to happen. It had the potential both to shock the
world into economic transformation, averting future catastrophes, and to generate catastrophes of its own, including a shift into even more
damaging technologies, such as biofuels and petrol made from coal. Even so, peak oil was a powerful lever. Governments, businesses and voters
who seemed impervious to the moral case for cutting the use of fossil fuels might, we hoped, respond to the economic case.
Some of us made vague predictions, others were more specific. In all cases we were wrong. In 1975 MK Hubbert, a geoscientist working for
Shell who had correctly predicted the decline in US oil production, suggested that global supplies could peak in 1995. In 1997 the petroleum
geologist Colin Campbell estimated that it would happen before 2010. In 2003 the geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes said he was "99% confident"
that peak oil would occur in 2004. In 2004, the Texas tycoon T Boone Pickens predicted that "never again will we pump more than 82m barrels"
per day of liquid fuels. (Average daily supply in May 2012 was 91m.) In 2005 the investment banker Matthew Simmons maintained that "Saudi
Arabia … cannot materially grow its oil production". (Since then its output has risen from 9m barrels a day to 10m, and it has another 1.5m in
spare capacity.)
Peak oil hasn't happened, and it's unlikely to happen for a very long time.
A report by the oil executive Leonardo Maugeri, published by Harvard University, provides compelling evidence
that a new oil boom has begun. The constraints on oil supply over the past 10 years appear to have
had more to do with money than geology. The low prices before 2003 had discouraged investors from developing difficult
fields. The high prices of the past few years have changed that.
Maugeri's analysis of projects in 23 countries suggests that global oil supplies are likely to rise by a
net 17m barrels per day (to 110m) by 2020. This, he says, is "the largest potential addition to the world's oil
supply capacity since the 1980s". The investments required to make this boom happen depend on a
long-term price of $70 a barrel – the current cost of Brent crude is $95. Money is now flooding into new oil: a
trillion dollars has been spent in the past two years; a record $600bn is lined up for 2012.
The country in which production is likely to rise most is Iraq, into which multinational companies are now sinking their money, and their claws.
But the bigger surprise is that the other great boom is likely to happen in the US. Hubbert's peak, the famous bell-shaped graph depicting the rise
and fall of American oil, is set to become Hubbert's Rollercoaster.
Investment there will concentrate on unconventional oil, especially shale oil (which, confusingly, is not the same as oil shale). Shale oil is highquality crude trapped in rocks through which it doesn't flow naturally.
There are, we now know, monstrous deposits in the United States: one estimate suggests that the Bakken
shales in North Dakota contain almost as much oil as Saudi Arabia (though less of it is extractable). And this
is one of 20 such formations in the US. Extracting shale oil requires horizontal drilling and fracking: a combination of high
prices and technological refinements has made them economically viable. Already production in North Dakota has risen from 100,000 barrels a
day in 2005 to 550,000 in January.
So this is where we are. The automatic correction – resource depletion destroying the machine that was driving it – that
many environmentalists foresaw is not going to happen. The problem we face is not that there is too
little oil, but that there is too much.
2NC—Crisis Inevitable
Europe will trigger a global banking crisis – European debt crisis will trigger their
Tverberg impact
Tushe 12 — [Isida Tushe, Guest Scholar at Eurasia Review, “Who’s Keeping Europe Afloat? Is
Eurozone Collapse Beginning Of Second Great Depression?,” Eurasia Review,
http://www.eurasiareview.com/02072012-whos-keeping-europe-afloat-is-eurozone-collapse-beginningof-second-great-depression-analysis/]
The recession of the 1930s caused failure in banks both in the U.S. and Europe to the point where the
exchange rate adjustments made affected world trade and the international capital flow which turned into a global depression; loses in GDP and
industrial production. Every
day people witnessed mass unemployment to unprecedented scale similar to
today’s Greece and Spain situation. Like the 1930s events, today’s event show a fall in resource
utilization. The one difference is that it took years for these catastrophic events to happen in the
1930s. In just a few years, Europe has seen a degree of sudden financial stress, sharpness of the fall
in the world trade, economic activity, and asset prices. The world monetary standard was gold, and today the European
monetary standard is the euro. The EU has managed to establish a single market across its members, where now the Eurozone compromises of 17
member states. Synchronous
to the 1930s, today’s collapse in trade, downturn in the economy, and fall in
asset prices calls for a serious concern by the EU leaders.
AT: Vents
1NC Frontline—Vents
Underwater mapping for hydrothermal vents fails
Singh et al 07—Ph.D. in Oceanography from MIT. [“Towards High-resolution Imaging from
Underwater Vehicles,” Hanumant Singh, Chris Roman, Oscar Pizarro, Ryan Eustice, and Ali Can, The
International Journal of Robotics Research, Volume 26, Number 55, 2007, pp 55-56, accessed from
Emory] // AG
A number of oceanographic applications require large area site surveys from underwater imaging
platforms. Such surveys are typically required to study hydrothermal vents and spreading ridges in
geology (Yoerger et al. 2000), ancient shipwrecks and settlements in archaeology (Ballard et al. 2002),
forensic studies of modern shipwrecks and airplane accidents (Howland 1999; NTSB 2002), and surveys
of benthic ecosystems and species in biology (Singh et al. 2004a). Scientific users in these disciplines
often rely on multiscalar, multisensor measurements to best characterize the environment.
At finer scales, for resolutions down to millimeters, optical imaging of the seafloor offers scientists a
high level of detail and ease of interpretation. However, light underwater suffers from significant
attenuation and backscatter , limiting the practical coverage of a single image to a few square
meters. To cover larger areas of interest, hundreds or thousands of images may be required. The
rapid attenuation of the visible spectrum in water implies that a composite view of a large area (or
photomosaic) can only be obtained by exploiting the redundancy in multiple overlapping images
distributed over the scene. Although there has been considerable effort in this regard for land-based
applications, the constraints on imaging underwater are different and are far more difficult to deal
with . Mosaicing assumes that images come from an ideal camera (with compensated lens distortion) and
that either the scene is planar or the camera is undergoing purely rotational motions. Under these
assumptions the camera motion will not induce parallax and therefore no 3D effects are involved
and the transformation between views can be correctly described by a 2D homography. These
assumptions often do not hold in underwater applications since light attenuation and backscatter
rule out the traditional land-based approach of acquiring distant, nearly orthographic imagery.
Underwater mosaics of scenes exhibiting significant 3D structure usually contain significant
distortions . In contrast to mosaicing, the information from multiple underwater views can be used to
extract structure and motion estimates using ideas from structure from motion (SFM) and
photogrammetry.
No bioweapons – Too difficult to acquire and deploy
Burton and Stewart, 08 (Fred and Scott, Stratfor Intelligence, “Busting the Anthrax Myth”, July 30,
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/busting_anthrax_myth)
We must admit to being among those who do not perceive the threat of bioterrorism to be as significant as that posed by a nuclear strike.
To be fair, it must be noted that we also do not see strikes using chemical or radiological weapons rising to the threshold of a true weapon of
mass destruction either. The successful detonation of a nuclear weapon in an American city would be far more devastating than any of these
other forms of attack. In fact, based on the past history of nonstate actors conducting attacks using biological weapons, we
remain
skeptical that a nonstate actor could conduct a biological weapons strike capable of creating as many casualties
as a large strike using conventional explosives — such as the October 2002 Bali bombings that resulted in 202 deaths or the March 2004 train
bombings in Madrid that killed 191. We do not disagree with Runge’s statements that actors such as al Qaeda have demonstrated an
interest in biological weapons. There is ample evidence that al Qaeda has a rudimentary biological weapons capability. However, there
is
a huge chasm of capability that separates intent and a rudimentary biological weapons program from a
biological weapons program that is capable of killing hundreds of thousands of people. Misconceptions About Biological
Weapons There are many misconceptions involving biological weapons. The three most common are that they are easy
to obtain, that they are easy to deploy effectively, and that, when used, they always cause massive casualties. While it is
certainly true that there are many different types of actors who can easily gain access to rudimentary biological agents, there are far
fewer actors who can actually isolate virulent strains of the agents, weaponize them and then effectively
employ these agents in a manner that will realistically pose a significant threat of causing mass casualties. While organisms such as
anthrax are present in the environment and are not difficult to obtain, more highly virulent strains of these tend to be far more difficult to
locate, isolate and replicate. Such efforts require highly skilled individuals and sophisticated laboratory equipment. Even
incredibly
deadly biological substances such as ricin and botulinum toxin are difficult to use in mass attacks. This difficulty arises
when one attempts to take a rudimentary biological substance and then convert it into a weaponized form — a form that is potent enough
to be deadly and yet readily dispersed. Even if this weaponization hurdle can be overcome, once developed, the weaponized agent must
then be integrated with a weapons system that can effectively take large quantities of the agent and evenly distribute it in lethal doses to
During the past several decades in the era of modern terrorism, biological weapons
have been used very infrequently and with very little success. This fact alone serves to highlight the gap between
the intended targets.
the biological warfare misconceptions and reality. Militant groups desperately want to kill people and are constantly seeking new
innovations that will allow them to kill larger numbers of people. Certainly if biological weapons were as easily obtained, as easily
weaponized and as effective at producing mass casualties as commonly portrayed, militant groups would have used them far more
Militant groups are generally adaptive and responsive to failure. If something
works, they will use it. If it does not, they will seek more effective means of achieving their deadly goals. A good
frequently than they have.
example of this was the rise and fall of the use of chlorine in militant attacks in Iraq. Anthrax As noted by Runge, the spore-forming
bacterium Bacillus anthracis is readily available in nature and can be deadly if inhaled, if ingested or if it comes into contact with a person’s
skin. What constitutes a deadly dose of inhalation anthrax has not been precisely quantified, but is estimated to be somewhere between
8,000 and 50,000 spores. One gram of weaponized anthrax, such as that contained in the letters mailed to U.S. Sens. Tom Daschle and
Patrick Leahy in October 2001, can
contain up to one trillion spores — enough to cause somewhere between
20 and 100 million deaths. The letters mailed to Daschle and Leahy reportedly contained about one gram each for a total
estimated quantity of two grams of anthrax spores: enough to have theoretically killed between 40 and 200 million people. The U.S. Census
Bureau estimates that the current population of the United States is 304.7 million. In a worst-case scenario, the letters mailed to Daschle
and Leahy theoretically contained enough anthrax spores to kill nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population. Yet, in spite of their incredibly
deadly potential, those
letters (along with an estimated five other anthrax letters mailed in a prior wave to media outlets such as the
New York Post and the major television networks) killed only five people; another 22 victims were infected by the spores but
recovered after receiving medical treatment. This difference between the theoretical number of fatal victims — hundreds of millions — and
the actual number of victims — five — highlights the challenges in effectively distributing even a highly virulent and weaponized strain of an
organism to a large number of potential victims. To summarize: obtaining a biological agent is fairly simple. Isolating a virulent strain and
then weaponizing that strain is somewhat more difficult. But the key to biological warfare — effectively distributing
a weaponized
agent to the intended target — is the really difficult part of the process. Anyone planning a biological
attack against a large target such as a city needs to be concerned about a host of factors such as dilution, wind
velocity and direction, particle size and weight, the susceptibility of the disease to ultraviolet light,
heat, dryness or even rain. Small-scale localized attacks such as the 2001 anthrax letters or the 1984 salmonella attack undertaken
by the Bhagwan Shri Rajneesh cult are far easier to commit.
Bioweapons don’t cause extinction -- empirical death tolls prove the impact is
minimal.
Leitenberg 05—[Milton, Senior research scholar at the University of Maryland, Trained as a Scientist
and Moved into the Field of Arms Control in 1966, First American Recruited to Work at the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute, Affiliated with the Swedish Institute of International Affairs and
the Center for International Studies Peace Program at Cornell University, Senior Fellow at CISSM,
ASSESSING THE BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AND BIOTERRORISM THREAT,
http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/assessing_bw_threat.pdf]
The conclusions from these independent studies were uniform and mutually reinforcing. There is an
extremely low incidence of real biological (or chemical) events , in contrast to the number of hoaxes, the latter
spawned by administration and media hype since 1996 concerning the prospective likelihood and dangers of such events. A massive second wave
of hoaxes followed the anthrax incidents in the United States in October-November 2001, running into global totals of tens of thousands. It
is
that analysts producing tables of “biological” events not count hoaxes. A
hoax is not a “biological” event, nor is the word “anthrax” written on a slip of paper the same thing
as anthrax, or a pathogen, or a “demonstration of threat”—all of which various analysts and even
government advisory groups have counted hoaxes as being on one occasion or another.79 Those
events that were real, and were actual examples of use, were overwhelmingly chemical, and even in
that category, involved the use of easily available, off-the-shelf, nonsynthesized industrial products.
Many of these were instances of personal murder, and not attempts at mass casualty use. The
Sands/Monterey compilation indicated that exactly one person was killed in the United States in the 100 years
between 1900 and 2000 as a result of an act of biological or chemical terrorism. Excluding the preparation of
ricin, a plant toxin that is relatively easier to prepare, there are only a few recorded instances in the years 1900 to
2000 of the preparation or attempted preparation of pathogens in a private laboratory by a
nonstate actor. The significant events to date are: • 1984, the Rajneesh, The Dalles, Oregon, use of
salmonella on food; • 1990-94, the Japanese Aum Shinrikyo group’s unsuccessful attempts to
procure, produce and disperse anthrax and botulinum toxin;80 • 1999, November 2001, al-Qaida,81
the unsuccessful early efforts to obtain anthrax and to prepare a facility in which to do
microbiological work; October-November 2001, the successful “Amerithrax” distribution of a highquality dry-powder preparation of anthrax spores, which had been prepared within the preceding
24 months.
also extremely important
2NC—Hydrothermal Vents Minning
Plan leads to hydrothermal mining which is bad for vents
Van Dover 11, C. L. (2011). [Tighten regulations on deep-sea mining.] Nature,470(7332), 31-33.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v470/n7332/full/470031a.html
There are three scientific reasons for deferring wholesale commercial mining until proper
conservation plans are enacted. First, there is much more to learn about hydrothermal vent
systems. After three decades of work, researchers continue to find new vent sites in remote
locations and new species, adaptations, behaviours and microhabitats, even in well-known settings.
Second, there is no strategy in place to assess the cumulative impacts of mining. Mining one vent
field may be comparable to a volcanic eruption or other natural process that wipes out vent communities. Active
hydrothermal vents are subject to frequent disturbance, including collapse of black smoker
chimneys and microearthquake activity. The ability of a vent community to recover from such events may depend on their
frequency as well as their scale. Moreover, scientists do not yet understand how vent systems repopulate, or
anything about the complex dynamics of neighbouring communities. The effect of continuous and
cumulative mining operations may be very different from that of a single event. Third, we still don't
know how best to mitigate mining activities or to restore habitats in the deep sea. Efforts by mining
companies (such as setting aside a reserve area) during and after extraction could conceivably alleviate scientific concerns about cumulative
effects. But which measures will work, and be affordable, won't be known until the mining is complete or until experimental studies are done.
At this point, I believe a scientific panel would review the current knowledge base and mining plans for Solwara 1 favourably — with the advice
that no further mining be initiated until ecologists understand how quickly the mined vent ecosystem recovers and whether the restoration
Marine research demands patience; expeditions are long
and costly, and scientific answers slow in coming. However, we cannot be patient about effective
policies to protect the sea floor. There is an urgent need to establish conservation guidelines before
mining begins in international waters, and to place these guidelines in functioning governance and
regulatory frameworks. Mining codes alone are not enough.
strategies used by the mining company facilitated recovery.
2NC—Mapping Fails
Magnetic mapping fails
Hamoudi et al 11—Helmholts Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences.
[“Aeromagnetic and Marine Measurements,” Hamoudi Mohamed, Yoann Quesnel, Jerome Dyment, and
Vincent Lesur, Geomagnetic Observations and Models, Chapter 4, 2011, pp 57-103, accessed from
Emory] // AG
Sea-surface magnetic observations, typically acquired more than 2000 m above the magnetized
sources, lack sufficient resolution to address some scientific problems. Here ‘resolution’ does not
means the resolution of the instrument but the ability of the recorded signal (the magnetic anomaly) to
detect a given variation of the causative physical property (the magnetization of a source body). Seasurface anomalies barely resolve the longest wavelengths of geomagnetic field intensity as recorded
by the oceanic crust (e.g., Canda and Kent 1992a, 1992b; Gee et al. 1996; Bouligand et al. 2006). Simple
forward modelling easily demonstrates that the details of these variations or the depiction of ore deposits
on the seafloor in association with hydrothermal vents, for instance, are beyond the reach of these data
(e.g., Tivey and Dyment 2010).
The magnetic field created by a point source decays as 1 r3 , where r is the distance to the source
body (ln (1r ) in the case of a 2D problem, i.e., a line source seen as a point source in cross section). The
only way to significantly improve the resolution of the magnetic signal caused by a source bodies is to
reduce the distance to these bodies. For marine magnetics, this means evolving from sea-surface to deepsea measurements.
2NC—No Impact to Bioweapons
Bioweapons don’t cause extinction -- they’re weak and easy to control.
Mueller 10 [John, Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies at the Mershon Center for
International Security Studies and a Professor of Political Science at The Ohio State University, A.B.
from the University of Chicago, M.A. and Ph.D. @ UCLA, Atomic Obsession – Nuclear Alarmism from
Hiroshima to Al-Qaeda, Oxford University Press]
Properly developed and deployed, biological weapons could potentially, if thus far only in theory, kill
hundreds of thousands, perhaps even millions, of people. The discussion remains theoretical because
biological weapons have scarcely ever been used . For the most destructive results, they need to be
dispersed in very low-altitude aerosol clouds. Since aerosols do not appreciably settle, pathogens
like anthrax (which is not easy to spread or catch and is not contagious) would probably have to be
sprayed near nose level. Moreover, 90 percent of the microorganisms are likely to die during the
process of aerosolization, while their effectiveness could be reduced still further by sunlight, smog,
humidity, and temperature changes. Explosive methods of dispersion may destroy the organisms,
and, except for anthrax spores, long-term storage of lethal organisms in bombs or warheads is
difficult: even if refrigerated, most of the organisms have a limited lifetime. Such weapons can take
days or weeks to have full effect, during which time they can be countered with medical and civil
defense measures. In the summary judgment of two careful analysts, delivering microbes and toxins
over a wide area in the form most suitable for inflicting mass casualties-as an aerosol that could be
inhaled-requires a delivery system of enormous sophistication, and even then effective dispersal
could easily be disrupted by unfavorable environmental and meteorological conditions.
History proves that technical difficulties and ideology prevent effective bioterror
Parachini 03, John, policy analyst at RAND, Autumn, 2003, The Washington Quarterly, p. lexis
The technical
capacity of groups to produce or acquire and effectively deliver unconventional weapons varies considerably.
Achieving catastrophic outcomes with unconventional weapons requires a considerable scale of operations. Only in a very few
cases have groups been able to amass the skills, knowledge, material, and equipment to perpetrate
attacks with unconventional weapons on a scale that comes close to that of the danger posed by terrorist attacks with
conventional explosives. To date, only Aum Shinrikyo and Al Qaeda have been able to achieve the scale of
operations required to mount serious unconventional weapons programs, but even these two groups
have encountered difficulties. Aum Shinrikyo, which had considerable financial resources, front companies, and members
with scientific talents, failed in all 10 of its biological weapons attacks. n18 Similarly, the group's sarin attack on the
The third explanation for the paucity of terrorist attacks using unconventional weapons is the technical hurdles involved.
Tokyo subway caused roughly the same number of fatalities as the average Palestinian suicide bomber attack. n19 Aside from some minor
efforts to develop the toxin ricin, Al Qaeda and its affiliated groups tend to use explosives delivered by suicide attackers as its weapon of
choice. During the last 25 years, terrorist attacks with unconventional weapons have inflicted far fewer casualties and fatalities than
indiscriminate terrorist bombings or suicide hijackings, n20 the tragic toll of the September 11 attacks being the most pronounced example.
In cases where terrorists have used unconventional weapons in the past, they mostly have used crude
toxic materials, not sophisticated, military-grade weapons. Aum is the one group that developed a chemical agent
that is commonly found in military arsenals. Otherwise, most cases have involved limited efforts to use industrial materials or industrial byproducts as weapons. Toxic warfare can pose considerable security challenges, but on balance, these types of threats pale in comparison to
the catastrophic terrorist attacks for which government authorities prepare in tabletop exercises. n21 In a survey of 60 tabletop exercises for
An apparent lack of interest on
the part of terrorist groups in acquiring unconventional weapons also helps explain why
unconventional weapons attacks are so rare. In the case studies on the Irish Republican Army (IRA), the FARC, and Hamas,
federal departments and agencies, only a handful involve non -- military-grade weapons agents.
political vision, practical military utility, and moral codes all restrained them in part from seeking
and using unconventional weapons. In some cases, group leaders indicated to members that the use of chemical or biological
weapons would not be legitimate to their struggle. Hamas leader Abu Shannab, for one, stated that the use of poison was
contrary to Islamic teachings. n22 Although Hamas is a religiously based organization, its struggle to establish a Palestinian state
on Israeli territory and to eliminate Israel as a state is decidedly political.
AT: Tsunamis
1NC Frontline—Tsunamis
All of their impact evidence is in the context of earthquake induced tsunami’s. They
don’t solve for earthquakes.
Greenemeier 11—Technology and science journalist. [“How Does an Earthquake Trigger Tsunamis
Thousands of Kilometers Away?” Larry Greenemeier, Scientific American, 11 March 2011,
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/japan-earthquake-tsunami-waves/] // AG
How can an earthquake create a tsunami?
This tsunami was probably generated by an earthquake where the crust from beneath the Pacific
Ocean is diving down beneath Japan. What's happening is the uppermost 50 to 100 kilometers of the solid
earth in the Pacific Ocean is generally moving to the northwest at a speed that's very slow by our
standards, maybe several centimeters per year. But the crust around Japan is less dense and lighter
than the crust in the Pacific. When the two come together, the ocean crust goes down, and those two
plates really grind against each other. Along this area where the two are grinding, forces build up
over time. And then it will suddenly snap, where the Pacific plate will go down very suddenly and
the Asian plate that Japan is part of will sort of bounce up a little bit. The sudden motion of those
two plates displaces a huge volume of water, and that's what causes the tsunami.
MHs don’t cause tsunamis
Hornbach et al 07—Professor and researcher at the institute for geophysics at the University of
Texas. [ “Triggering mechanism and tsunamogenic potential of the Cape Fear Slide complex, U.S.
Atlantic margin,” Matthew J. Hornbach, Luc L. Lavier, and Carolyn D. Ruppel, U.S. Geological Survey,
Volume 8, Number 12, 28 December 2007] // AG
[37] Although gas hydrate dissociation may act as a slide triggering mechanism in water depths
between 500–1000 m, our analysis indicates that the evidence for slide failure along a critically
pressured gas-hydrate phase boundary, for all but the shallowest CFS events, is tenuous at best . In
the future, warming oceans would lead to the dissoci-ation of some of the present-day gas hydrate
deposits, thereby increasing pressures in sediments if gas is produced, but does not escape. Offsetting the
impact of warmer temperatures on the presentday gas hydrate reservoir is the increased pressure
associated with sea level rise. Though pressure changes on the gas hydrate reservoir are more
instantaneous than temperature changes, which propagate downward at a rate determined by the
sediment’s thermal diffusivity [Ruppel, 2000], the destabilizing impact of ocean warming is eventually
expected to outpace the stabilizing effect of pressure increases.
Low risk of Tsunami on the East Coast
Koebler 13—Journalist for US News. [“Study: Boston, New England at Greatest Tsunami Risk in US,”
Jason Koebler, USNews, 19 April 2013, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/04/19/study-bostonnew-england-at-greatest-tsunami-risk-in-us] // AG
Ebel says in order for a tsunami to cause major damage, there needs to be an earthquake of a
magnitude of at least 7, which are rare on the East Coast. The earthquake also has to occur in the
ocean; some seismologists believe the earthquake has to be powerful enough to cause what is known as a
"submarine landslide," which pushes sediment off the continental shelf and into the deep ocean.
The most powerful earthquake to strike the East Coast in recent memory was a magnitude 5.8
quake that struck near Richmond, Va., in 2011. The earthquake that caused at least 220,000 deaths in
Haiti in 2010 was a magnitude 7.0 quake that struck land. Ebel says that quake was not associated with
a tsunami.
They offer a false sense of security – Turns their impacts.
Falkenrath 05—Richard A. Senior Fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings Institute,
http://www.brookings.edu/comm/events/20050908.pdf
MR. FALKENRATH: I do think a greater investment in response is needed and that the public is right to
demand that in the aftermath of this event. But at the same time, we need to not suffer the illusion that
we can master Mother Nature perfectly. I mean there will always be events that can overwhelm our
most careful preparations and the most robust response assets. And there is nothing you can really
do I think about the tyranny of a mobilization timetable; that if you have assets—you can have a lot
of assets deployed all over the country, and you need to get them moving and it takes time to get
them moving. It's possible to get them on higher levels of readiness. There's no question I think that
our assets should have been on a high level of readiness sooner in New Orleans, but I don't think
you can have the equivalent of, you know, 82nd Airborne levels of readiness for national disaster
response contingencies. It would be unaffordable and not really feasible.
Solvency
1NC Frontline—Solvency
1D modeling solves better than EM mapping
Constable & Weiss 06—Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Sandia National Laboratories.
[“Mapping thin resistors and hydrocarbons with marine EM methods: Insights from 1D modeling,”
Geophysics, Volume 71, No. 2, 2006, pp G43-G51, accessed through Emory] // AG
CONCLUSIONS
Although 3D modeling will be important in the interpretation of large CSEM and MT data sets over
targets of complicated geometry, simpler 1D modeling can be used reliably to design the survey
parameters, given information such as sediment resistivity, water depth, and target depth. Because
the marine CSEM method is not completely T-equivalent, particularly at higher frequencies where
inductive effects are greatest, reservoir thickness and resistivity can be estimated as separate
parameters. However, inversion of EM data without constraints or prior structural information will
be limited by the intrinsically smooth resolution kernels and, in particular, the radial mode CSEM
data, which otherwise carries most of the information about the target structure, requires the inclusion of
azimuthal mode CSEM data, or, more economically, MT data, to recover even a smooth version of the
target structure.
Technical barriers to EM mapping
Weitemeyer 08—Ph.D. in Earth Science from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San
Diego. [“Marine Electromagnetic Methods for Gas Hydrate Characterization,” Weitemeyer, Karen A,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 11/24/2008, pp 134] // AG
One major problem for using electromagnetic techniques to map hydrate is that there have been
few electrical conductivity laboratory measurements made on hydrate. We thus lack a mechanism
for determining the quantity or concentration of hydrate expected from an electrical resistivity
measurement. Relationships like Archie’s Law are perhaps valid for a disseminated distribution of
hydrate, but if hydrate forms in veins and fractures other relationships, such as the Hashin- Strikmen
bounds, might be more valid. Unlike Archie’s Law, these relationships depend on a quantitative estimate
of hydrate conductivity. Recent funding will allow this work to take place.