EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM
EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE POLICIES ON DEVELOPMENT
Osvaldo Feinstein
9 February 2012
1
Evaluating the impact of climate
change policies on development
Themes
1. Clarifications concerning evaluating impact,
climate change policies and development
2. Expected results from these evaluations
3. Evaluation questions and methods
4. Useful resource materials
2
Evaluating impact
• A fundamentalist view: IE is, and only is,
evaluation using Randomized Control Trials
• A pragmatic view: positive and negative, primary
and secondary long term effects produced by a
development intervention, directly or indirectly,
intended or unintended (OECD glossary)
3
Impact and the results chain
• Results chain
INPUTS  OUTPUTS  OUTCOMES  IMPACTS
• Processes, activities and context
• Non-linearities and feedback loops
Climate Change Policies (CCP)
• Policies to mitigate or adapt to climate change
• Innovative policies (risk and uncertainty)
• Explicit CCP and implicit CCP (unintended
effects on climate change of non-CCPs)
5
Adaptation and Mitigation
ADAPTATION
Actions that people, countries and societies take to
adjust to climate change that actually occurred, or whose occurrence is
anticipated (reactive & anticipatory adaptation)
Responses to actual or anticipated shifts in climate e.g., changing crops
MITIGATION
Actions reducing the chances that adaptation will be required
Preventive actions, e.g., GHG emission reductions
When mitigation fails or is too late, adaptation is needed
Evaluating the impact, efficiency and sustainability of A & M
6
Community of Practice
Community of practice for the evaluation of
climate change and development (supported
by the GEF Evaluation Office)
http://www.climate-eval.org/?q=home
Follow-up of the International Conference on
Evaluating Climate Change and Development
http://www.thegef.org/gef/eo_office
On the Concept of Development
1. Development as freedom (Amartya
Sen)
2. Development as opportunities and
empowerment (N. Stern)
3. Sustainable development
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Growth, Development & Climate Change
• Frequent focus: GROWTH  CLIMATE CHANGE
• GROWTH, even SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, is
different from DEVELOPMENT
• Our focus: CCPOLICIES  DEVELOPMENT
9
Expected results from evaluating
CC policies on Development
1. More effective and efficient pro-development
evidence based climate change policies
2. Evaluation capacity development through
learning-by-doing
10
Evidence-based vs Fundamentalism
Climate change fundamentalism
negationism: nothing needs to be done (denial)
catastrophism: nothing can be done (alarmism)
voluntarism : everything can be done
Pragmatic approach
possibilism: something can/must be done
Evidence-based climate change policies
evaluation as a source of evidence
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Questions that evaluation suggests
and that should contribute to answer
1. Which climate change policies led to the
highest net development impact in which
contexts and why?
2. How can evaluation contribute to the design
and implementation of CCPs to enhance
their positive effects on development?
12
On evaluation methods
• A pluralistic approach, consistent with the pragmatic
definition of impact evaluation
• Models, triangulation, application of evaluation
criteria, cost-benefit analysis,
cost effectiveness analysis, causal chain,
theory of change or theory based evaluation
• Meta-analysis, synthesis reviews (3iE)
Making assumptions explicit
Assumptions concerning
Incentives
Capacities
Adoption
Risk
Uncertainty
Sustainability
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Key message on evaluation methods
Choosing methods and/or techniques that are:
• Fit for purpose
• Fit for task
• Fit for resources
• Fit for circumstances
(“Horses for courses”)
Circumstances
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Purpose of the evaluation
Available capacities
Type of intervention
Budget constraint
Deadline
Data availability
Bottom line:
Fit for circumstances
Useful resources
• US GAO “Designing Evaluations” 2012 Revision
• WB Impact Evaluation Handbook (2011)
• Network of Networks for Impact Evaluation
(NONIE) “Impact Evaluations and Development”
(2009)
• New Directions for Evaluation (2009)
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Some additional useful resources
• Climate change evaluations by the WB IEG
• WDR (2011) and HDR (2010) on climate change
• “Evaluating Climate Change and Development”09
• Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change 06
• International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3iE)
• Bert Metz (2010) “Controlling Climate Change”
http://www.controllingclimatechange.info/ControllingC
limateChange_by_BertMetz.pdf
The end?
Thank you!
ofeinstein@yahoo.com