Chapter Twenty Four Aggregate Expenditure and Equilibrium Output Income, Consumption, and Saving (Y, C, and S) Saving = Income - Consumption S=Y-C The Role of Income Disposable Income: The current income you receive in your paycheck, after you pay taxes. Expected Future Income: The income you expect to receive in the future The Role of Income Higher Income Higher Consumption Income = Consumption + Savings Y=C+S Savings Income Consumption Consumption Schedule Income 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Consumption 500 1250 2000 2750 3500 Assuming Taxes=0 Consumption Schedule Income 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 = Consumption 500 1250 2000 2750 3500 + Saving -500 -250 0 250 500 Graphing the Consumption Function Consumption 45o line 4000 3000 2000 1000 1000 2000 3000 4000 Household Income Graphing the Consumption Function Consumption 4000 Consumption 3000 2000 1000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Household Income Slope of the Consumption Function Consumption 5000 4000 C 3000 DC 2000 DY 1000 DC Slope = 45o 0 0 1000 2000 3000 DY 4000 Household Income Slope of the Consumption Function Consumption Slope = 0.75 5000 4000 C 3000 DC = 750 2000 DY = 1000 1000 45o 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Household Income The Consumption Function C = 500 + .75*Income People buy goods even when their income is zero 75% of each dollar of income is consumed 25% of each dollar is saved 0.75 is the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) MPC and MPS The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is that fraction of a change in income that is consumed or spent. The marginal propensity to save (MPS) is that fraction of a change in income that is saved. Savings Savings = Income - Consumption MPS: marginal propensity to save MPS = 1 - MPC Consumption & Saving Consumption Consumption Function S Y C 45o Household Income Increase in MPC An increase in the MPC increases the slope of the consumption function... Increase in MPC Consumption Consumption Function 45o Household Income Increase in the Constant An increase in the constant shifts the entire consumption function upward, parallel to the original. Increase in the Constant Consumption Consumption Function 45o Household Income What Determines the Level of Planned Investment? Real interest rates Expected future profits What Determines the Level of Planned Investment? Lower Interest Rates Higher Expected Future Profits More Investment (I) Actual Investment Actual Investment = Planned Investment + Inventories Inventories = Production - Sales Inventory Adjustment Consumers buy more than firms planned Inventories fall Actual Investment falls short of Planned Investment Output Adjustment Inventories are lower than desired Firms will increase production Output will rise Inventory Adjustment Planned Investment Output < C Inventory Adjustment Actual Investment Output = C Inventory Adjustment Change in Inventories Planned Investment = Actual Investment Inventories decline by the difference between planned investment and actual investment. Inventory Adjustment Consumers buy less than firms planned Inventories rise Actual Investment exceeds Planned Investment Output Adjustment Inventories are higher than desired Firms will decrease production Output will fall Inventory Adjustment Output > Planned Investment C Inventory Adjustment Actual Investment Output = C Inventory Adjustment Change in Inventories Planned Investment = Actual Investment Inventories increase by the difference between planned investment and actual investment. Aggregate Expenditures Schedule Income Y 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 Consumption 500 1250 2000 2750 3500 Planned Investment 50 50 50 50 50 Agg. Expend. C+I 550 1300 2050 2800 3550 Planned Aggregate Expenditures Aggregate Expenditures = C + I AE = C + I C I 45o Aggregate Income, Y Planned Aggregate Expenditures Output > Aggregate Expenditures AE = C + I Unplanned rise in inventories. Output falls. 550 500 45o Aggregate Income, Y Planned Aggregate Expenditures Output < Aggregate Expenditures Unplanned fall in inventories. Output rises. AE = C + I 550 500 45o Aggregate Income, Y Planned Aggregate Expenditures Output = Aggregate Expenditures Equilibrium AE = C + I 550 Planned Investment = Actual Investment Output does not change. 500 45o Aggregate Income, Y Income Identities C + S + T = Y (household budget) C + I = AE (planned expenditure) AE = Y (equilibrium) In equilibrium... C+S=Y C + I = AE AE = Y S=I Adjustment to Equilibrium Expenditures C+I 2400 C 2200 I = 100 C = 2300 Y = 2400 S = 100 2000 45o 2000 2200 2400 Aggregate Income, Y Adjustment to Equilibrium Expenditures C+I 2400 C 2200 I = 50 C=2150 Y= 2200 S = 50 2000 45o 2000 2200 2400 Aggregate Income, Y Adjustment to Equilibrium -C&SAggregate Planned Expenditures Savings = -600 + .25Y Consumption=600+.75Y 600 45o Aggregate Income, Y Adjustment to Equilibrium AE < Y and S > I Expenditures AE = C + I Investment=$50 Savings Consumption=600+.75Y 650 600 45o Aggregate Income, Y Adjustment to Equilibrium AE < Y AE = C + I Expenditures Actual Inventories exceed Planned Inventories 650 600 45o $3000 Aggregate Income, Y When AE < Y, Output is too High... Firms produce more than consumers and firms want to buy Inventories accumulate Actual inventories exceed planned inventories Firms will cut back on production Adjustment to Equilibrium AE > Y Expenditures AE = C + I 650 600 Actual Inventories less than Planned Inventories $800 Aggregate Income, Y When AE > Y, Output is too Low... Firms produce less than consumers and firms want to buy Inventories decline Actual inventories are less than planned inventories Firms will increase on production Adjustment to Equilibrium AE = Y Expenditures AE = C + I Actual Inventories equal Planned Inventories 650 600 $2600 Aggregate Income, Y When AE = Y, Equilibrium... Equilibrium income: the level at which C+I = Y Planned Inventories = Actual Inventories The Simple Model and the Multiplier C = 500 + 0.75*Y I = 50 Equilibrium: C+I=Y 2200 = Y Suppose that I rises to 60... C = 500 + 0.75*Y I = 60 Equilibrium: C+I=Y 2240 = Y Where do the numbers come from?? C + I = 500 + 0.75Y + 60 = 560 + 0.75Y Set C + I equal to Y: 560 + 0.75 Y = Y Solve for Y: 560 + 0.75Y - 0.75Y = Y - 0.75 Y 560 = 0.25 Y 560/0.25 = Y implies Y = 2240 Aggregate Planned Expenditure The change in I causes a shift in AE I=60 I=50 2240 2200 2200 2240 Aggregate Income, Y Investment spending increases by 10, but income increases by 40... The Multiplier!! Multiplier effect: Equilibrium GDP increases by more than the change in I or autonomous C Changes in autonomous expenditures multiply through the economy. Multiplier = 1/(1-MPC) = 1/MPS Suppose $10 is injected into the economy, with an MPC = .75: S $2.50 S 1.87 S $1.41 S $1.05 C C $10 C $7.50 Y= $10, $17.50, C $5.63 $23.13, $4.22 $27.35, $3.17 $30.52,... Add up the increments in Y: $10 + $7.50 + $5.63 + $4.22 + ... = $40 $40 = $10 * multiplier = $10 * 4 Review Terms & Concepts Actual investment Identity Aggregate income Investment Aggregate output Marginal propensity to Autonomous variable consume (MPC) Marginal propensity to save (MPS) Multiplier Paradox of thrift Saving Change in inventory Consumption function Planned investment Equilibrium