Global Warming
Energy Challenges
CMAQ Presentation
January 9, 2006
Overview
• Greenhouse effect
– Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise
– Forcing models / temperature predictions
• Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)
• Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak
– Future and current energy challenges
• Energy equity – the road ahead
Solar Energy and earth’s Heat
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm
250 yrs of Carbon Emissions
It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’ll
burn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?
Rising CO2 over 50 Years
http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html
Carbon Emissions and CO2
Year
C burned
1900
12307
1910
19174
1920
28050
1930
37914
1940
48566
1950
62324
1960
83453
1970
115935
1980
164083
1990
219365
2000
283373
ppm CO2
295
300
305
310
310
315
320
325
340
350
370
• Carbon burned => CO2
• Linear from 1850 to 2000
- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C
+ 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
• ~ 50% of carbon goes
into atmospheric CO2
– 33% into the oceans
• Trend is constant over
150 years – is this how
the biosphere will react
over the next 150 years?
A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned
Global Warming - the 20th Century
http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm
Earth Out of Balance
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/
Forcing, Predicted Temperature,
and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Forcing
Felt
Owed
2000
0F
2025
2050
2075
2100
- Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years
Consequences of Warming
• Thinning of polar ice caps
– Thawing permafrost / release of methane
• Slowing of the thermohaline cycle
• Rising sea level, perhaps quickly
• Extreme weather events
– Extended regions of drought
– Extremes of temperature / duration
– Extremes of storms and hurricanes
All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!
The Melting North Pole
The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,
and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these
rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/
Storms on the Move
Katrina moving
across Florida
in late August 2005
finds warm water
in the Gulf of Mexico
And grows from a
category 1 to a
category 5 hurricane
in less than 2 days!
Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/
Oil Production – Reserves
Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005
Projected Energy Demand
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html
Energy Equity
• Burning oil is burning money!
• Build an energy infrastructure with equity
• Solar energy is primary, not alternative!
– $25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’
– Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in
manufacturing, and 8 for local installers
• Built in America, by Americans, for
America, what could be more economic?
http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
Summary
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•
•
•
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Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle
Forcing models – temperature lag
Effect of warming just one degree
Peak oil – declining energy production
Energy Equity – and the road ahead
– Our single biggest challenge
– Our single biggest opportunity
References
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
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http://www.realclimate.org/
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/
http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html
http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/
http://www.solarelectricpower.org/
http://www.nrel.gov/
http://www.eia.doe.gov/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil