Do MPAA Ratings Affect
Revenues at the Box Office?
Daniel R. Ellis
Georgia College & State University
Motion Picture Association of America
• Created in 1922 by major studio presidents to
protect the industry from government censorship
• MPAA content rating system by Jack Valenti in 1968
G
PG
R
X
General
Audiences
Mature
audiences
Under 16 with
parent
Restricted under
16
• Ratings are evaluated by boards comprised of
“the average parent”
Age Ratings
• Current system circa 1984
G
PG
PG-13
R
NC-17*
Minimal
violence
Some violence
Unrealistic
Violence
Persistent
Violence
N/A
No nudity
Brief nudity
Non-sexuallyoriented
Nudity
Sexuallyoriented nudity
Aberrational
Behavior
No profanity
Some profanity
1 “Fuck”
Hard
Language
N/A
No drugs
No drugs
Drug use
Drug abuse
N/A
Prior Literature
Age
Ratings
Litman (1983)
Prag &
Casavant (1994)
Stimpert &
Laux (2008)
Current Study
Not
Significant
Not
Significant
Not
Significant
Significant
2003 is the most recent observation in previous research
The Real World
“The MPAA rating is so inextricably tied to
commercial success in the United States that
directors generally work under a contractual
requirement that they deliver a film with a
certain rating.”
- Ridley Scott
Simple Statistics
Single Highest-Grossing Film
$800
$761
$700
$600
$500
$475
Millions
$423
$371
$400
$300
$200
$100
$20
$-
G
PG
PG-13
R
NC-17
Data
• Sample of 524 films from 1992 – 2011
• Revenues were adjusted for inflation to 2012
Mean
Std
Deviation
Min
Max
$112.43M
$122.44M
$4.95M
$1.021B
• Control variables
Star Power
Sequel
Genre
Quality
Seasonality
Studio
Release
Reviews
Empirical Model
Revenueit= Ratingit + Star_Powerit + Sequelit + Genreit +
Qualityit + Seasonalityit + Studioit + Releaseit + Reviewsit + εit
Results
Revenue in Millions
Coefficient
Standard Error
P-value
Star Power*
21.25
8.73
0.015
PG-13*
67.99
9.45
0.000
PG*
56.89
13.43
0.000
G
36.03
29.58
0.224
3-D
56.74
29.71
0.057
Sequel*
71.11
12.43
0.000
Animated*
46.90
22.07
0.034
Sci-Fi*
100.85
18.52
0.000
Action/Thriller*
52.83
12.10
0.000
Adventure/Family*
49.34
19.09
0.010
Comedy*
45.16
12.89
0.000
Average Review Score*
21.05
3.38
0.000
Academy Award*
Nominations
16.57
2.90
0.000
Academy Award Wins*
15.01
5.10
0.003
Studio*
43.5
9.38
0.000
Constant
-163.93
24.03
0.000
Revenue in Millions
Coefficient
Standard Error
P-value
Star Power
-0.161
8.2
0.984
PG-13*
39.81
8.97
0.000
PG*
41.09
12.26
0.001
G
40.57
26.87
0.132
3-D
23.91
27.15
0.379
Sequel*
42.14
11.6
0.000
Animated
-17.54
20.92
0.402
Sci-Fi*
69.55
17.06
0.000
Action/Thriller*
22.62
11.35
0.047
Adventure/Family
9.52
17.73
0.591
Comedy
23.17
11.86
0.051
Average Review Score*
19.13
3.07
0.000
Academy Award*
Nominations
17.54
2.64
0.000
Academy Award Wins*
10.08
4.65
0.031
Studio*
21.03
8.77
0.017
Seasonal*
16.91
7.46
0.024
Release*
0.055
0.005
0.000
Constant
-221.13
22.45
0.000
Limitations
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Marketing and Advertising
Production costs
Writer/Director
Composer/soundtrack
Release of competing films
Unobserved Technological advances
Domestic less than 50% of total revenue
Further Implications
Does the MPAA increase youth access to
violence?
• “Films that would previously have been rated R were
increasingly assigned to PG-13.”
• “ The rating system has allowed increasingly violent
content to enter the PG-13 category.”
Recent study from the Annenberg Public Policy Center