WW Associates Presents 2.5 Ghz Marketplace Awards & Analyses NIA 2005 February 16 2003 BRS Collectors Award Nextel – Fleet afoot Bankruptcy Purchases • • • • $145 Mil for what cost WorldCom $1 Bil $51 Mil for Nucentrix Gained major rights in about 100 M Pops Rejected many EBS & BRS leases in each 2003 Stealth Dealmaker Award Flux Fixed Wireless • Form D SEC filing lists 2 shareholders • 1 to a New Yorker for $6.3 M in shares • 1 to a Texan entity for $7.5 mil in shares • Speculation - HITN based in New York and Dallas home of original Clearwire 2004 BRS Collectors Award Fixed Wireless Holdings dba Clearwire • 25 deals per FCC weekly transfer releases • 153 call signs/309 channels/1555 BRS MHz • Cover 58 markets including 25 BTA holdings • F blocks in Atlanta & Seattle • Remainder primarily tertiary markets • Raises $160 M in August Private Placement 2004 Defenders Cup Award Nextel bolsters its positions in large markets: • Philadelphia F block • Dallas & Ft Worth E blocks both acquired • Austin E&F blocks each acquired • Washington H channel added • Also a few bundled and other licenses 2004 Big Market Player Award Nextwave Telecom buys from IP Wireless • Las Vegas 4 BRS channels for $2.25 M • Archdiocese of NY lease rights $12.7 M Nextwave Telecom to pay Archdiocese NY: • $1 Mil upfront plus $1.5 mil transition costs • $2.2-3.6 M rent/royalty/yr for 15 years NPV about $.10/MHz/Pop in each deal 2005 Sprinters Award • 28 market De Facto Lease deal with Sprint • Small Upper Midwest & West Markets • Clearwire extends 2ndary market position What all this activity mean • • • • • Last 2 years great “Buyer’s Market” Bells only feigned interest in 2003 fire sales Clearwire only game in many small towns Nextwave 1 toe in 2 big markets as wholesaler “Sprint Nextel will have the capability to deploy new services on the two companies’ 2.5GHz combined spectrum holdings that together cover 85 percent of the households in the top 100 markets.” (merger release) + Recent Legg Mason Analyses • On Sprint -Nextel: • “…this time around MMDS is hotter property, and there may be new opposition to its concentration…” • 1/20/05 Wireless Merger Reviews • On 2.5 Ghz rebanding: • “Bells and cable lose if duoply upset by third pipe to home” • 2/7/05 Cheat Sheets + AT&T Labs Slide at WCAI • In U.S., 2.6 GHz and 700 MHz are of key importance • Licensed spectrum is clearly important for ultrareliable operation, esp. for mission critical use – WiMAX ForumTM certification profiles needed • Unlicensed operation is likely to be a powerful force in future: – Unlicensed operation key factor in popularity of 802.11 – Shortage of licensed spectrum + Sprint Nextel Transfer Filing • • • • • • Wireless Interactive Multimedia Services 2-4 Mpbs to fixed and portable devices VOD, games, bus work, on site conferences Fingerprint ID, Bio Scanning, Crime locale Average 33 MHz licensed BRS per market Average 56 MHz leased EBS-BRS/market EBS holds key to • • • • • Creating a “Lessor’s” market Has most of today’s independent spectrum Cable Consortium is reviewing its options Integrated Providers interest in metro hubs Increasing universe to “Tipping Point” Know your Contract • • • • Technology usage restrictions Past, present or future expiration date Be cognizant of any holdover rights granted Make your availability known as able Consider Market Demographics • • • • • Size Matters Density Counts Pop Growth Rates Enterprise Values Landscape Changes • • • • • Top 3, 10, 30, 50 More demand/supply Future value premium Big Business Centers Intra/inter mkt alliance Act Based on Own EBS Portfolio Market # EBS Current Status/ Size License Not under contract Small Single Go with 1st offer regional/Clearwire Talk to Nextwave, Large Single Inquire Incumbent Large Multi Talk to Clearwire, Nextwave, etc. Mix Multi Go to Clearwire + some to Nextwave Seismic Change Cable entry, new national Big Bells or Cable enter Big Bells or Cable enter Big Bells or Cable enter Fair Market Value Point of indifference between a willing buyer and a seller. A concession by either side can get a deal done. A bird in the hand worth two in bush NY Times Feb 8th • Article Headline: “Valuing MCI in an Industry Awash in Questions” • S&P analyst Tagline: “The price tag depends on who the buyer is” Take-away Comments • • • • • • Have more than one party to negotiate BLS/FON-NXTL may bid up in metros Three bidders can create hockey stick effect Bulls and bears get rich, holdouts can starve Incumbents may pre-empt seismic change New entrants may only pay more initially Ask WW Jim Wiesenberg jwiesenberg@cox.net 602.690.4929