How Will Dartmouth Still be Relevant in
20 years?
Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director
Source: Seattle Times, Tuesday, January 26, 2010
September 4th, 2011
My frame of reference
Private sector:
• Strategy and management
consultant
• Software entrepreneur
• MBA
Nonprofit sector:
• Consultant to National Park
Service, charter schools, and
health services
• Foundation program officer –
innovative technology and
delivery in postsecondary ed
Motivations:
• Increased access to
opportunity
• Wicked problems
• Impatient actors
• Enlightened self interest
Class of 2028
Class of 2031
Class of 2032
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
 Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
 The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
 The changing learner
 Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
3
 Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
 The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
 The changing learner
 Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Predictions for higher ed in 2020
 More students
 Higher completion rates
 Lower cost per student
 Smaller chunks of learning
 More, measurable indicators of learning
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Four Challenges for the Next Decade
Completion challenge
Quality challenge
 Middle skill job demand
 Stagnant ~40% AA+
attainment levels
 Low completion rates


Increasing demands from
global economy
Questioning what students
are really learning
Funding challenge
Demographic challenge



State budget cuts
Limits to student and
family ability to pay and to
borrow


Increasing diversity
Low academic readiness
“Non-traditional” new
normal
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Jobs in today’s (and tomorrow’s) workforce
require more education
Percentage of Workforce by Education Level
1973
2002
2018
40%
32%
30%
32% 33%
28%
27%
29%
16%
12%
11% 10%
High School Dropout
High School
Graduate
Some College /
Associate's
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and
Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the
Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
Bachelor's & Higher
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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The college access agenda has been a success…
Postsecondary fall enrollment 1963-2005
Source: IPEDS
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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…But degree attainment rates are flat
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)
55-64
45-54
35-44
25-34
ALL (25-64)
1
U.S. (39%)
Canada (45%)
Canada (53%)
Canada (56%)
Canada (48%)
2
Canada (39%)
Japan (41%)
Japan (46%)
Korea (56%)
Japan (41%)
3
N.Z. (35%)
U.S. (40%)
Finland (43%)
Japan (54%)
N.Z. (41%)
4
Finland (28%)
N.Z. (39%)
U.S. (42%)
N.Z. (47%)
U.S. (40%)
5
Australia (27%)
Finland (36%)
N.Z. (41%)
Ireland (44%)
Finland (36%)
6
Norway (26%)
Australia (32%)
Korea (40%)
Norway (43%)
Korea (35%)
7
Sweden (26%)
Norway (31%)
Norway (36%)
France (41%)
Norway (34%)
8
Neth. (26%)
U.K. (31%)
Belgium (36%)
Belgium (41%)
Australia (34%)
9
Switz. (26%)
Denmark (30%)
Iceland (35%)
Australia (41%)
Ireland (312)
10
U.K. (25%)
Neth. (30%)
Ireland (34%)
U.S. (40%)
Denmark (32%)
11
Denmark (24%)
Switz. (30%)
Denmark (34%)
Denmark (40%)
Belgium (32%)
12
Japan (24%)
Sweden (29%)
Australia (34%)
Sweden (40%)
U.K. (32%)
13
Germany (23%)
Belgium (28%)
Switz. (34%)
Finland (39%)
Switz. (31%)
14
Iceland (23%)
Iceland (28%)
U.K. (32%)
Spain (39%)
Sweden (31%)
15
Belgium (22%)
Germany (25%)
Spain (32%)
U.K. (37%)
Neth. (31%)
Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported)
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Why? Low completion rates – our dirty
little secret
Percentage of students expecting to earn credentials
who had earned a credential within five years
100%
60%
Bachelor's
73%
80%
61%
53%
Associate's
55%
Certificate
38%
40%
20%
0%
Total
Private Public 4- Private Public 2not-foryear
for-profit
year
profit
Source: NELS 1988
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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The quality of degrees themselves is
being questioned
 Study of 2,300 undergraduates at two dozen
universities who took the Collegiate Learning
Assessment
 45 percent “demonstrated no significant gains
in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and
written communications during the first two
years of college”
 32 percent of the students whom they followed
did not, in a typical semester, take “any courses
with more than 40 pages of reading per week
 50 percent “did not take a single course in
which they wrote more than 20 pages over the
course of the semester”
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Tuition and fees are growing rapidly…
Source: New York Times
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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…And state funding is declining
Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP)
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Meanwhile, student demographics are
increasingly nontraditional
“Traditional”
• Enter college
directly after high
school
• Enroll fulltime
• Financially
dependent on
their parents
25%
“Non-traditional”
• Financially
independent
(>50%)
• Have dependents
of their own (27%)
• Work full time
(38%)
• Enroll part time
(49%)
75%
Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
 Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
 The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
 The changing learner
 Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
15
Education is the primary arbiter of
opportunity in the U.S.
Composition of total intergenerational correlation between parent and
children’s income, by transmission channel
1-28%
5%
100%
12-39%
3%
8%
30%
Education
of parents
14%
Race of
head of
household
Health
status of
parents
State of
residence
Femaleheaded
household
Financial
assets
Unexplained
(e.g.,
motivation,
social
networks,
community,
norms)
Total intergenerational
correlation =
0.431
(1.0 would
be perfectly
correlated)
Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Higher education is not equitably distributed
Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24
Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 –
2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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The Gates Foundation’s work in the U.S.
All young people who have the will to get a
postsecondary credential should have the way to do it
College-Ready
Postsecondary Success
U.S. Program Goal
Graduate all
students collegeready
Help all young
people get
degrees that
count
Helping all young
people reach their
full potential
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Gates Foundation postsecondary priorities
1
Focusing on completion, not just access, in our
measurement, funding, and financial aid
systems
2
Accelerating time to a degree through
restructuring developmental education and
bridging the gaps between high school and
college
3
Unlocking the power of technology to
personalize learning and student progression
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
 Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
 The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
 The changing learner
 Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
20
Changing generational context
Baby
Boomers

TV generation

Typewriters

Telephone

Memos

Family focus
Generation
X
•
•
•
•
•
Net Gen
Video games
PC
Email
CDs
Individualist
•
•
•
•
•
Web
Cell phone
IM
MP3s
Online
community
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Changing generational context
 NetGen’s Online 12.2 hrs per week
• 28% > GenX, 50% > Boomer
 NetGen 50% more likely to send IMs than GenX,
2x as likely to read Blogs, just as likely to use
Social Networking Sites
 70% HH Broadband (up from 29% in 2004)
 85% HH Mobile Phones
• Data to phone: 50% NetGen, 33% GenY,
20% Boomers
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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How does Net Gen use the internet?
For social, search, and
commerce
• Use an online social networking site
like MySpace or Facebook 73%
• Go online to get news or information
about current events or politics 62%
• Buy things online, such as books,
clothing, or music 48%
• Share something online that you
created yourself, such as your own
artwork, photos, stories or videos
38%
Less for formal
expression
• Take material you find online like
songs, text or images and remix it into
your own artistic creation 21%
• Create or work on your own online
journal or blog 14%
• Use Twitter 8%
• Visit virtual worlds such as Gaia,
Second Life or Habbo Hotel 8%
• Look online for health, dieting, or
physical fitness information 31%
Source: Pew Survey of Internet & American Life, 2009
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
 Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
 The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
 The changing learner
 Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
|
How to make sense of all this?
Emerging Product Categories
Social
Games
Social
Networks
Informal Learning
Learning
Games
Mobile
P2P
Simulation
Open
Publishing
Aggregators
Online
Resources
Formal Learning
Tutoring
Reference
-ware
Online
Learning
Community Driven
Services Oriented
Content Driven
Learning
Commun
ities
Interventions
Platform Driven
Established Product Categories
Source: Startl
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Bloom can help: the two-sigma problem
Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as
Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Five Trends I'm Watching
1
Open content and cheap devices
democratize information
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Open educational resources moving
beyond PDFs…
2,000 MIT courses, many
with lecture capture
2,400 lessons, delivered 78,406,600
times – and counting
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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…And available at students’ fingertips
Source: BCG, Unleashing the Potential of Technology in Education, Allison Bailey,
Tyce Henry, Lane McBride, J. Puckett, August 2011
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Five Trends I'm Watching
1
Open content and cheap devices
democratize information
2
Lecture model challenged by virtual
teams and shared courseware
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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“Improvement in post-secondary education
will require converting teaching from a ‘solosport’ to a community-based research
activity.”
-Herbert Simon, Nobel Laureate
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Carnegie Mellon Open Learning
Initiative
Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Accelerated Learning Results
 OLI students completed course in half the time
with half the number of in-person course
meetings
 OLI students showed significantly greater
learning gains (on the national standard “CAOS”
test for statistics knowledge) and similar exam
scores
 No significant difference between OLI and
traditional students in follow-up measures given
1+ semesters later
Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Model challengers taking many forms
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Five Trends I'm Watching
1
Open content and cheap devices
democratize information
2
Lecture model challenged by virtual
teams and shared courseware
3
Social media enables learning
networks
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Social media for social integration
Correlation of Facebook activity to
persistence
182
123
109
Persisters
82
Nonpersisters
Facebook Wall posts
friends
Source: Morris, Reese, Beck, and Mattis, Facebook Usage as a Predictor of Retention
at a Private 4-Year Institution, Journal of College Student Retention, 2010
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Layering social into learning networks
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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How many people would you like in
your learning network?
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Five Trends I'm Watching
1
Open content and cheap devices
democratize information
2
Lecture model challenged by virtual
teams and shared courseware
3
Social media enables learning
networks
4
Amazon/Ebay style analytics
unlock personalization
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year”
students
Per semester
credits:
4 year: >=15
5 year: 12-14
6 year: <12
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB
and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Amazon features
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Predictive modeling and targeted
interventions
• American Public
University System
• Rio Salado College
• Purdue University
CONNECTION
• Iowa Community Colleges
Online Consortium
• Sinclair Community College
• University of Maryland (BC)
• Capella University
ENTRY
PROGRESS
COMPLETION
Student Data System
Student Engagement
Leadership Focused on Completion
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Five Trends I'm Watching
1
Open content and cheap devices
democratize information
2
Lecture model challenged by virtual
teams and shared courseware
3
Social media enables learning
networks
4
Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock
personalization
DIY is for real and informal
learning brands emerge
5
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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DIY U
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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New brands and entrants?
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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So what should Dartmouth faculty do?
I don’t know. But if I had to venture…
1. Accelerate blended learning
efforts
2. Integrate SCVNGR-like
approaches into academics
3. Link students into learning
networks
4. “Flip” the classroom
5. Others?
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
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Thank You
Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director
Education – Postsecondary Success
josh.jarrett@gatesfoundation.org
www.gatesfoundation.org