THE CHANGING
DEMOGRAPHY OF THE
NEVADA ELECTORATE
DAVID F. DAMORE
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNLV
SENIOR NONRESIDENT FELLOW, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
SENIOR ANALYST, LATINO DECISIONS
THE ORIGINAL SWING STATE
•
Nevada has always been a swing state
• The winning presidential candidate has carried Nevada in 31 of
38 elections
• Over time the presidential margin of victory has decreased, while
split ballot outcomes have increased
•
Causes
Inspire Nevada, January 30, 2016
1
• Weak political parties and strong personal political organizations
• A transient population (smallest share of native born in the US)
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
3,000,000
Nevada,
2,839,099
2,500,000
Clark County,
2,069,681
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
Washoe
County,
440,078
500,000
1960
Asian
Black
Latino
White
1980
1990
2000
2010
2014
Nevada
Clark (73%)
Washoe (15%)
Rurals (12%)
8.1%
9.0%
27.5%
52.2%
9.6%
11.5%
30.0%
46.1%
5.7%
2.6%
23.3%
64.7%
1.9%
1.8%
17.4%
73.8%
Source: U.S. Census
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1970
2
Explosive
growth since
1990 has
created a
highly
urbanized
and diverse
state.
WHAT HAS CHANGED?
• Who participates in politics
• Where political competition occurs
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• What issues matter
THE DIVERSIFICATION OF THE
NEVADA ELECTORATE
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1994
1996
1998
2000
White
2002
Black
2004
2006
Latino
2008
2010
2012
2014
Asian
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4
Source: Current Population Survey P20 Reports and Detailed Tables (1994–2014)
UNDER AND OVER VOTING BY
RACE AND ETHNICITY
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
White
Black
Latino
2008
2010
2012
2014
-4
-6
-8
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Source: Current Population Survey P20 Reports and Detailed Tables (1994–2014)
Asian
UNDER AND OVER
VOTING BY AGE
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
1994
1996
2000
2002
2004
2008
2010
2012
2014
-4
-6
-8
-10
18 to 24
25 to 44
45 to 64
65 and older
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6
Source: Current Population Survey P20 Reports and Detailed Tables (1994–2014)
DISCUSSION
•
Why is this occurring?
•
• The costs and benefits of political participation
• Nevada specific factors
How does this affect election outcomes?
•
•
Yes and no
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•
Partisan and symbolic representation at the federal, state,
and local levels
Is policy and governance responding to the state's changing
population?