Introduction to Performance Measures Measures of Performance Define baseline conditions Quantify achievement of planning objectives Compare alternative plans New performance measures are generated to improve decision making Performance Measures Must Be Clearly defined Easily understood Directly related to planning objectives Relevant to decision makers and stakeholders Capable of addressing risk and uncertainty Two Types of Performance Measures Accounts- describe the overall effect of an alternative in a specific area (e.g. cumulative economic impacts) Metrics- statistical or numerical measure of system performance Metrics are often treated as sub-accounts or used as surrogates for estimating total effects (e.g. system reliability) Requirements for Performance Measures Stakeholders must help develop performance measures The “role” of performance measures must be understood by participants Performance measures must facilitate decision making Four Principle and Guideline Accounts National Economic Development (NED): effects to the national economy Regional Economic Development (RED): changes in the distribution of regional economic activity Environmental Quality (EQ): effects on significant natural & cultural resources Other Social Effects (OSE): relevant effects that are not reflected in the other three accounts Both beneficial and adverse effects must be cited within each account for use in plan evaluation A Closer Look at NED, National Economic Development Describes increases in the net value of national output of goods and services Impacts are expressed monetary units Estimates a user’s willingness to pay for each increment of output from a plan to value goods and services The opportunity costs of resources used in plan implementation are used to estimate adverse NED effects NED Includes Estimates of Market & Non-Market Goods & Services in the Following Areas 1) M&I Water Supply 2) Agricultural Floodwater, erosion & sedimentation Irrigation 5) Urban Flood Damage Reduction 6) Power (hydropower) 7) Transportation (inland navigation) 8) Transportation (deep draft navigation) 9) Recreation 10) Commercial Fishing 11) Other The actual procedures for estimating NED depend on type of goods & services being provide A Closer Look at RED, Regional Economic Development RED describes the regional incidence of NED effects The regions used in RED estimation are those that will be significantly impacted by a plan RED is expressed in monetary units, other numeric units, or non-numeric terms RED sub-accounts Regional income Regional employment A Closer Look at EQ, Environmental Quality EQ describes effects on ecological, cultural and aesthetic attributes of significant natural and cultural resources Impacts are described in terms of duration, location, magnitude and other effects relevant to decision making, in either numeric or nonnumeric terms The perceived significance of impacts is identified based on institutional, public and technical recognition A Four Phase EQ Evaluation Phase 1 - Definition of resources Phase 2 - Inventory of resources Phase 3 - Assessment of effects Phase 4 - Appraisal of effects This process is coordinated with NEPA regulations. EQ Attributes Include Ecological Attributes Functional components Nutrient cycling Succession Assimilative Other capacity, erosion dynamic, and interactive processes and systems EQ Attributes Include Ecological Attributes Structural components Plant & animal species Populations Chemical & communities & physical properties of air, water & soil EQ Attributes Include Cultural EQ Attributes Evidence of past and present habitation that can be used to reconstruct or preserve human lifeways (e.g. archeological remains) Historic landmarks Places of cultural/religious significance Aesthetic Attributes Sights, sounds, smells, tastes & tactile impressions & their interactions with natural & cultural resources A Closer Look at OSE, Other Social Effects OSE incorporates perspectives that are relevant to the planning process, but are not reflected in the other three accounts Rigorous descriptions are not required OSE effects are expressed in monetary units, other numeric units, or non-numeric terms OSE Sub-Accounts Urban & community impacts Income distributions’ The quality of community life OSE Sub-Accounts Impacts to life, health & safety Risk of flood, drought or other disasters affecting the security of life, health & safety Potential loss of life, property, or essential public services due to structural failure Changes in air and water quality not reported in NED & EQ Indicators of Risk in Performance Measures Reliability Vulnerability Resiliency Robustness Reliability The probability that a system will perform without failure over a specified period. Vulnerability The severity of impacts which are experienced when a system failure occurs. Resiliency The likelihood of system recovery from a failure. Robustness The ability of a plan or strategy to perform effectively if future conditions are different from projected conditions. A General Recipe for Formulating Metrics First, identify concepts that best capture system performance and the interests of stakeholders Then, translate the concepts into measurable terms Common Types of Metrics Frequency that a constraint is violated (reliability) Duration of constraint violations (resiliency) Maximum and average levels of performance during a specified period Maximum and average levels of constraint violations (vulnerability) Water Use Perspective System Performance Concerns • Safe yield • Failures to meet unconstrained demand Municipal Water Supplier • Imposition of curtailments of differing severity • Costs of supplying water (profitability) • Available reservoir supply • Remaining aquifer Water Use Perspective System Performance Concerns • Price of water Industrial • Adequacy of receiving water •Ability to exercise water right Water Use Perspective Navigation System Performance Concerns • Channel closings • Imposition of light loading requirements Water Use Perspective System Performance Concerns • Lake levels Lake Recreation • Boat ramp accessibility • Recreational opportunities • Quality of recreational experience • Profits/Visitation rates Water Use Perspective System Performance Concerns Hydropower • Power production capabilities • Ability to meet minimum production targets • Profits Water Use Perspective Consumer System Performance Concerns • Price of water • Imposition of curtailments of differing severity • Ability to exercise water rights Water Use Perspective Fish Habitat System Performance Concerns • Streamflow • Scour/Sedimentation • Water quality Water Use Perspective System Performance Concerns Indian Tribes • Impacts to fisheries habitat • Ability to exercise water rights Potential Surrogates for Impacts Which are Difficult to Simulate Impact of Concern Potential Surrogate Fish Welfare Streamflow levels at different life cycle stages Wildlife Welfare Quality of Recreational Experience Streamflow Levels Reservoir levels, streamflow levels Fire Hazard Reservoir Storage Aesthetics Type of water use restrictions imposed Consumer Pain and Suffering Number and duration of water-use restrictions Summary Measures of performance are required for planning. Measures of performance include accounts and metrics. Principles and guidelines utilize four accounts: NED, RED, EQ, OSE. Metrics communicate risks and evaluate system performance in terms of multiple interests. Formulation of performance measures requires input from managers, stakeholders and decision makers. Exercise