Economic Prosperity and Resilience
In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints
Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D.
April 2011 – UN Dialogue on “Harmony with Nature”
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Biocapacity Creditors and Biocapacity Debtors
Global Footprint
--------------------------- = 1.5
Global Biocapacity
The Ecological Footprint
CARBON footprint
Accounting Framework for
Ecological Services
Biocapacity:
How much
bioproductive area
is available to us?
Ecological Footprint:
How much bioproductive
area do we demand?
The Basic Equation
Amount per year
Area = ------------------------Yield
Translate area from ha into global ha…
Biocapacity
per person
Ecological Footprint
Italy
Ecological Footprint
Biocapacity
per person
Italy’s relative GDP per
capita (compared to
World)
Italy’s Biocapacity Deficit
A special report on debt
Re:
A better way
The rich world should
worry about growthpromoting reforms
more than short-term
fiscal austerity
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
DE
BY
AT
BE
ES
SK
FR
FI
GR
NL
HU
IT
IR
PO
PT
CZ
UK
RO
RU
RS
CH
SE
UA
DK
Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards)
Annual deficit adds up to a
global biocapacity debt
Mathis’ life
UN’s Most Moderate Scenario
Preparing for resource
constraints is in the most direct
self-interest of cities and
countries. (much more so than for
individuals or companies…)
mathis@footprintnetwork.org
offical national gov Footprint studies
we’re working on national govs
WBCSD
UNDP
EP and EC
UNEP Green Econ.
SEEA (?)
(2011)
Summary
• The planet has limits. Do you know
how much biocapacity you have?
and how much you use?
• Blindness costs lives & opportunities.
• Link to economic stability and
competitiveness
mathis@footprintnetwork.org
Ecological Footprint
per person
Deficit
Biocapacity per person
3.00
ITALY
gha per capita
2.50
2.00
Food
Housing
Mobility
Goods
Services
Government
GFC
Other
2007
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Cropland
Grazing Land Forest Land
Fishing
Grounds
Carbon
Built-up Land
Uptake Land
PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION
/
=
RESOURCE
EFFICIENCY
PER CAPITA
ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT
(DEMAND)
DIFFERENCE BETW.
BIOCAPACITY
DEMAND AND
BIOCAP. SUPPLY
Five Factors
BIOPRODUCTIVITY
AREA
x
/
POPULATION
=
PER CAPITA
BIOCAPACITY
(SUPPLY)
WBCSD Vision 2050 - Who’s in?
WBCSD Vision 2050
24
development
HDI
Sustainable (fits on one planet?)
Measuring “sustainable development”
Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
Alge.
CM
AO
BF
CI
EG
ET
GH
KE
MG
MW
ML
MA
MZ
NE
NG
TZ
UG
ZA
ZM
SD
ZW
CG
SN
Shrinking
Biocapacity
Credit
Increasing
Ecological
and Social
Instability
Sustainability wedges for ending overshoot by 2050 (WBCSD)
15
NEW!
MRIO (GTAP7 based)
covering 93 countries (+ 20 regions)
• Consumption – break down national total
into 57 consumption categories
• Import – which countries do these 57 cats
come from?
• Export – in which countries do exports
get consumed?
Consumption Footprint for
Cropland in gha: Switzerland
Raw milk
Wool, silk-worm cocoons
Forestry
Fishing
Coal
Oil
Gas
Minerals nec
Bovine meat products
Meat products nec
Vegetable oils and fats
Dairy products
Processed rice
Sugar
Food products nec
Beverages and tobacco products
Textiles
Wearing apparel
Leather products
Wood products
GFCF
9,701
397
155
23
0
0
0
10
10
20
24
26
1
7
112
31
2,350
187
2
454
HH
249,538
5,571
3,570
2,553
1
0
776
1,760
91,870
277,257
266,008
331,746
29,735
18,072
561,281
367,213
121,539
391,542
127,449
14,732
GOV
64
4
18
2
0
0
0
3
367
3,216
3,404
81
61
73
469
65
767
142
82
1
TOTAL
259,303
5,972
3,742
2,579
1
0
776
1,773
92,248
280,493
269,436
331,853
29,797
18,153
561,862
367,308
124,656
391,870
127,533
15,187