Accessing Project Files
All project files can be found on the class website.
• www.lmu.edu/csla
• Click on “Classes” link on left panel
• Use LMU login

Purpose of Project
Does ethnicity, race and gender play a part in how Angelenos vote?
How?

Methodology
Research Design
Sampling
Data Collection
Data Processing
Data Analysis

Research Design & Sampling
This Semester Project
+
2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll
2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit Poll
2012 Presidential Election Exit Poll

Data Collection & Processing
November 6, 2012
Presidential Election Exit Poll

Data Analysis
What:
2008, 2010, and 2012
Exit Poll Questions &
Demographic Categories
How:
Project, Presentations, &
Final Paper

Launchpad for Project
• Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President
Obama in 2008, 2010, and in 2012?
• If so, how?

In a Nutshell
• Look at past exit poll data
• Perform trend analysis in your team and on your own
• Make a prediction about 2012 election
• Participate in exit poll
• Assess your 2012 prediction
• Present in a group about how LA votes

Easy Like Sunday Morning.
*For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with The Commodores.

In Depth Project Overview
1.
Select Teams
2.
Choose Variables
3.
Create Task List
4.
Create Annotated Bibliography
5.
Visually Represent Poll Data
6.
Make a Prediction
7.
Collect 2012 Poll Data
8.
Assess Prediction
9.
Outline Presentation
10. Present with Your Team

Teams
• African American
• Asian American
• Latino
• White
• Gender

Scope of Data Available
Since 2012 poll data hasn’t been collected yet, you will be analyzing the following data before the November 6 election:
• 2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll
• 2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit Poll

Dependent Variable
• Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President
Obama in 2008 and 2010?
• In other words, did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010
– Ethnic group or Gender = x
– President Obama or Governor Brown = y

Independent Variables
Using 2008, 2010, and 2012 data each team will look at :
• Ethnicity or Gender
• Income
• Education
• Individual Demographic Variable
• Individual Voter Opinion Variable

Variables Explored in Teams
You will explore the following independent variables for
2008 and 2010 in your presentation teams
Ethnicity or
Gender
Income Education
Did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these variables?

Team Variables
• Ethnicity or Gender
– Cumulative opinion of group
• Income
– Group opinion based on income
• Education
– Group opinion based on education

Variables Explored Individually
You will explore the following independent variables individually for 2008 and 2010.
Voter
Opinion
Variable
Demographic
Variable
Did x vote for or against y in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these variables?

Individual Variables
• Demographic Variable
– Additional demographic variable, e.g.
political party, age, religion, etc.
• Voter Opinion Variable
– Specific opinion question from survey, i.e. whom or what they voted for or against, e.g. other candidates, propositions, and measures

Data Analysis Requirements
You will create crosstabs with your team and individual variables.
• 3 team crosstabs per year = 6 crosstabs
• 2 individual crosstabs per year = 4 crosstabs
• As a group = 20 crosstabs total

Crosstabs
Name:
Theme:
Demographic:
Berto Solis
Quality of Life
Income
Overall, do you feel things in the City of Los Angeles are going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right Direction
Staying the Same
Wrong Direction
DK/NA
<30K
29.6%
12.3%
53.6%
4.5%
30-50K 50-70K 70-90K 100K+
35.4% 33.6% 43.5% 41.6%
15.0%
43.2%
6.4%
17.5%
43.0%
6.0%
10.4%
41.6%
4.4%
18.6%
34.4%
5.4%
Total
31.9%
14.8%
47.8%
5.5%
100.0%
Visualized
Data
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Overall, do you feel things in the City of Los
Angeles are going in the right direction or the wrong direction?
<INSERT CHART HERE>
Right Direction
Staying the Same
Wrong Direction
DK/NA
<30K 30-50K 50-70K
INCOME
70-90K 100K+
Survey Year:
Sample Size:
Source:
1997
650
Guerra, Fernando; Marks, Mara. (1997). 1997 Los Angeles Riots 5th Anniversary Resident Follow
Up Survey Report: Final Topline Results. Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los
Angeles, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles California.

Create a Task List
Divide and conquer this project.
Due next week: using the semester project guide and this presentation, draft a task list organized by:
• Deadlines
• Scheduling meeting times with team
• Scheduling meeting times with me

Annotated Bibliography
Bibliographical data with a short description of the content. At least 9 references:
• 3 team references, corresponding to team variables
• 6 individual references
– 2 for demographic variable for 2008-2010
– 2 for 2008 public opinion variable
– 2 for 2010 public opinion variable

Visualizing Exit Poll Data
2008 and 2010 data will be available next week, in SPSS format. In the meantime, research your team and individual variables and work on your annotated bibliography.
Here’s an intro to SPSS and why you’ll have to schedule a time to meet with me after next week to work on visualizations.

SPSS
“Statistical Package for the Social
Sciences”
• Acronym obsolete, just “SPSS” now
• Powerful data analysis tool
• Will generate crosstabs from large datasets

SPSS Crosstabs

How to Make Crosstabs with
SPSS

Making a Prediction
Using annotated bibliography data and visualizations, make a prediction about the 2012 election.

In Other Words…
• Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against President Obama in 2012?
• If so, how?

November 6, 2012
Presidential Election
Exit Poll!

Assess Your Prediction
• Was your prediction accurate?
• What external factors influenced the election?

Group Presentation Outline
• One introductory slide
• Three group slides corresponding to the three group variables
• Ten slides, two per individually chosen demographic and exit poll question variable
• One conclusion slide
• GREATEST HITS ONLY

Group Presentations
Based on your joint research, provide a detailed, succinct, and brief overview of the ethnic vote in Los Angeles in 2012, using the above outline as a guide and limited to 15 slides.

Easy Like Sunday Morning.
*For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with The Commodores.

Questions berto.solis@lmu.edu
310-338-4565
Office Hours:
Thursdays 1-5pm
UH 4119
@LMU_CSLA