Data Analysis - Center for the Study of Los Angeles

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Racial & Ethnic Politics

Semester Project Guide

Accessing Project Files

All project files can be found on the class website.

www.lmu.edu/csla

Click on “Classes” link on left panel

Use LMU login

Purpose of Project

Does ethnicity, race and gender play a part in how Angelenos vote?

How?

Methodology

Research Design

Sampling

Data Collection

Data Processing

Data Analysis

Research Design & Sampling

This Semester Project

+

2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll

2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit Poll

2012 Presidential Election Exit Poll

Data Collection & Processing

November 6, 2012

Presidential Election Exit Poll

Data Analysis

What:

2008, 2010, and 2012

Exit Poll Questions &

Demographic Categories

How:

Project, Presentations, &

Final Paper

Launchpad for Project

Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President

Obama in 2008, 2010, and in 2012?

If so, how?

In a Nutshell

Look at past exit poll data

Perform trend analysis in your team and on your own

Make a prediction about 2012 election

Participate in exit poll

Assess your 2012 prediction

Present in a group about how LA votes

Easy Like Sunday Morning.

*For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with The Commodores.

In Depth Project Overview

6.

7.

4.

5.

1.

2.

3.

Select Teams

Choose Variables

Create Task List

Create Annotated Bibliography

Visually Represent Poll Data

Make a Prediction

Collect 2012 Poll Data

8.

9.

Assess Prediction

Outline Presentation

10. Present with Your Team

Teams

African American

Asian American

Latino

White

Gender

Scope of Data Available

Since 2012 poll data hasn’t been collected yet, you will be analyzing the following data before the November 6 election:

2008 Presidential Election Exit Poll

2010 Gubernatorial Election Exit Poll

Dependent Variable

Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against Governor Brown and President

Obama in 2008 and 2010?

In other words, did

x y

in 2008 and 2010 vote for or against

Ethnic group or Gender =

x

President Obama or Governor Brown =

y

Independent Variables

Using 2008, 2010, and 2012 data each team will look at :

Ethnicity or Gender

Income

Education

Individual Demographic Variable

Individual Voter Opinion Variable

Variables Explored in Teams

You will explore the following independent variables for

2008 and 2010 in your presentation teams

Ethnicity or

Gender

Income Education

Did

x

vote for or against

y

in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these variables?

Team Variables

Ethnicity or Gender

Cumulative opinion of group

Income

Group opinion based on income

Education

Group opinion based on education

Variables Explored Individually

You will explore the following independent variables individually for 2008 and 2010.

Voter

Opinion

Variable

Demographic

Variable

Did

x

vote for or against

y

in 2008 and 2010 relative to each of these variables?

Individual Variables

Demographic Variable

Additional demographic variable, e.g.

political party, age, religion, etc.

Voter Opinion Variable

Specific opinion question from survey, i.e. whom or what they voted for or against, e.g. other candidates, propositions, and measures

Data Analysis Requirements

You will create crosstabs with your team and individual variables.

3 team crosstabs per year = 6 crosstabs

2 individual crosstabs per year = 4 crosstabs

As a group = 20 crosstabs total

Crosstabs

Name:

Theme:

Demographic:

Berto Solis

Quality of Life

Income

Overall, do you feel things in the City of Los Angeles are going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right Direction

Staying the Same

Wrong Direction

DK/NA

<30K

29.6%

12.3%

53.6%

4.5%

30-50K

35.4%

15.0%

43.2%

6.4%

50-70K

33.6%

17.5%

43.0%

6.0%

70-90K

43.5%

10.4%

41.6%

4.4%

100K+

41.6%

18.6%

34.4%

5.4%

Total

31.9%

14.8%

47.8%

5.5%

100.0%

Visualized

Data

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Overall, do you feel things in the City of Los

Angeles are going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

<INSERT CHART HERE>

Right Direction

Staying the Same

Wrong Direction

DK/NA

<30K 30-50K 50-70K

INCOME

70-90K 100K+

Survey Year:

Sample Size:

Source:

1997

650

Guerra, Fernando; Marks, Mara. (1997). 1997 Los Angeles Riots 5th Anniversary Resident Follow

Up Survey Report: Final Topline Results. Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los

Angeles, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles California.

Create a Task List

Divide and conquer this project.

Due next week: using the semester project guide and this presentation, draft a task list organized by:

Deadlines

Scheduling meeting times with team

Scheduling meeting times with me

Annotated Bibliography

Bibliographical data with a short description of the content. At least 9 references:

3 team references, corresponding to team variables

6 individual references

2 for demographic variable for 2008-2010

2 for 2008 public opinion variable

2 for 2010 public opinion variable

Visualizing Exit Poll Data

2008 and 2010 data will be available next week, in SPSS format. In the meantime, research your team and individual variables and work on your annotated bibliography.

Here’s an intro to SPSS and why you’ll have to schedule a time to meet with me after next week to work on visualizations.

SPSS

“Statistical Package for the Social

Sciences”

Acronym obsolete, just “SPSS” now

Powerful data analysis tool

Will generate crosstabs from large

datasets

SPSS Crosstabs

How to Make Crosstabs with

SPSS

Making a Prediction

Using annotated bibliography data and visualizations, make a prediction about the 2012 election.

In Other Words…

Did ethnicity, race and/or gender play a part in how Angelenos voted for or against President Obama in 2012?

If so, how?

November 6, 2012

Presidential Election

Exit Poll!

Assess Your Prediction

Was your prediction accurate?

What external factors influenced the election?

Group Presentation Outline

One introductory slide

Three group slides corresponding to the three group variables

Ten slides, two per individually chosen demographic and exit poll question variable

One conclusion slide

GREATEST HITS ONLY

Group Presentations

Based on your joint research, provide a detailed, succinct, and brief overview of the ethnic vote in Los Angeles in 2012, using the above outline as a guide and limited to 15 slides.

Easy Like Sunday Morning.

*For the pop culture challenged that’s Lionel Richie and he wrote a song called “Easy” with The Commodores.

Questions

[email protected]

310-338-4565

Office Hours:

Thursdays 1-5pm

UH 4119

@LMU_CSLA

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