1
Mobile, Web, Cloud
And Programming
Justin Y. Shi | shi@temple.edu
(with credits to Dennis Roberson and Walt Davis)
February 17, 2013
2
Moment of Silence for Professor
Charles Kapps
The Rev. Charles Augustus Kapps, Ph.D. quietly passed away Sunday
morning, February 10, 2013. He was at home surrounded by his family.
3
4
Gender of the First Computers
• It was female.
• This is not well-known.
• But, I have the proof: In WWII, woman contributed more to
programming than man: Top Secret Roses
(http://technicallyphilly.com/2010/09/22/top-secret-rosiesdocumentary-tells-story-of-women-computers-in-wwii)
5
World Changes According to Dave Evans*
• 6 devices per living person by 2020. (Mobile)
• Zettaflood is Coming: 1.2 Zettabytes unique
data in 2011. (Web)
• 1/3 of all data will be on the cloud by 2020.
* Cisco’s Chief Futurist (this is a job title…)
,
,
,
,
,
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BIG – Beyond Mega and Giga
The Web is generating BIG numbers
Prefix
Scientific
Notation
Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
103
106
109
1012
1015
1018
1021
1024
English
Thousands
Millions
Billions
Trillions
Quadrillions
Quintillions
Sextillions
Septillions
Decimal
1,000
1,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,
,
Wireless Trends
© Walt Davis 2011
,
,
,
7
BIG – Beyond Mega and Giga
The Web is generating BIG numbers
Prefix
Scientific
Notation
Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
103
106
109
1012
1015
1018
1021
1024
English
Thousands
Millions
Billions
Trillions
Quadrillions
Quintillions
Sextillions
Septillions
Decimal
1,000
1,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
,
,
,
,
,
8
Refining BIG – Beyond Mega and Giga
The Web is redefining BIG numbers
Prefix
Scientific
Notation
Kilo
Mega
Giga
Tera
Peta
Exa
Zetta
Yotta
103
106
109
1012
1015
1018
1021
1024
English
Thousands
Millions
Billions
Trillions
Quadrillions
Quintillions
Sextillions
Septillions
Decimal
1,000
1,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Est 2020 Traffic = 2 ZettaBytes / Month
Data that would fill 1 Billion 1 Terabyte disks
9
WEB OF CLOUDS
Amazon
Twitter
Facebook
Google+
Azure
YouTube
150M
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
10
April
2011
Base Chart from Twitter – September 2010
11
12
Top 15 Internet Usage Sites 2012
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What do these mean?
• Information expansion
• Privacy reduction
• Security challenged
• And all thanks to:
Mobile, Web and Cloud
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Colorful Clouds
• Storage cloud: dropbox, skydrive, googledocs, …
• App cloud: Kindle Fire, Netflix, NewYork Times, …
• Government cloud: Amazon, google, IBM and Microsoft
• HPC cloud? (High Performance Computing)
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Programming
Is the ONLY way you can exercise
control over Mobile, Web and Cloud.
16
How to Programming
• It is like “giving directions”
• Or, like directing traffic
• Need to learn multiple languages, just like in the real
world. No big deal, right?
• Your reward: Devices behave exactly the way you wanted
• You are the MASTER.
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Mobile Programming
• So you phone will truly obey you…
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Web Programming
• It is hard to separate from mobile programming (why?)
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Cloud Programming
• So you know exactly how your stuff is saved: SLA
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Mobile Programming Special Challenges
• It can bring time, space, people and things together
without effort.
• It can move with you anywhere you go.
• Immediate privacy and security concerns:
• What data do you collect?
• Where do you store the data?
• How are you going to share the data?
• What do you extract?
21
Respect the Numbers…
Look where the World is going…
23
Wireless Broadband Network Trends
• Internet and Applications Growth
• Wire-line
and Wireless Traffic Growth
• Wireless Growth – Smart Phones and Beyond
• So What?
24
The Mobile Programming Pyramid
• It’s fun.
• It’s useful.
• It makes money for you.
• It challenges your creativity.
• It helps solving people’s problems.
• It gives you something to brag about.
• It has more potentials than desktop and servers.
• It is growing.
• It’s cool.
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Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Mobile Broadband Overtook Fixed Broadband in 2008
Millions
Fixed & Mobile Broadband Subscribers
800
688
Mobile BB subscribers
700
Fixed BB subs
600
500
429
400
276 282
300
200
100
153
99
7
30
344
473
403
210
154
71
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database – March, 2010.
2009
26
Telecom markets on the move
Growth in ICTs, 1998-2009
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database – March, 2010
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Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Growth of Mobile-only Internet Users
900
Number of Users, Millions
800
700
600
Middle East & Africa
Central & Estern Europe
500
Japan
Western Europe
400
North Amercia
Latin America
300
Asia
200
100
0
2010
2011
2012
Year
2013
2014
2015
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Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Growth Projections for Global Internet Traffic
Monthly Traffic in PetaBytes
45,000.00
40,000.00
35,000.00
30,000.00
File Sharing
Internet Video to PC
25,000.00
Internet Video to TV
Web / Data
20,000.00
Video Calling
Online Gaming
15,000.00
VoIP
10,000.00
5,000.00
0.00
2009
2010
2011
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2010
2012
Year
2013
2014
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Growth Projections for Global Internet Traffic
Monthly Traffic in PetaBytes
45,000.00
40,000.00
35,000.00
30,000.00
25,000.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
10,000.00
The total of all forms of video
File Sharing
(Video to TV, Video to PC, and
Internet Video to PC
Video calling) is projected Internet Video to TV
Web / Data
to account for over
Video Calling
Online Gaming
90% of global consumer traffic
VoIP
by 2014
5,000.00
0.00
2009
2010
2011
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2010
2012
Year
2013
2014
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Wireless Broadband Network Trends
• Internet and Applications Growth
• Wire-line and Wireless Traffic Growth
• Wireless
Growth
– Smart Phones and Beyond
• So What?
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
31
Cellular Subscriber Growth is Slowing
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Facts and Figures – October 20, 2010
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Smart Phones – The Growth Product for Mobile
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Projected Smartphone Growth
Mobile Internet will be 10x Desktop Internet
Computing Growth Drivers Over Time
Mobile
Internet
100,000
Desktop
Internet
10,000
1,000
PC
100
10
1B+ Units /
Users
Minicomputer
10B+
Units
???
100MM+
Units
Mainframe
10MM+ Units
1
1MM+ Units
1960
Stand-Alone Wired Seamless/Cloud
1970
1980
1990
2000
Web 3.0:
Social Networking
2010
2020
Source: Morgan Stanley
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34
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Growth of Digital Content in the Clouds
iTunes Downloads by Months Following Launch
Songs
10
Billions of Units
Total iTunes Down Loads
12
8
Apps
6
4
2
0
1
12
23
34
45
Months Following Introduction
Source: Apple Reports
56
67
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Smart Phone Market Shares 2012
Second quarter of 2012, by operating system.
• Android (Google Inc.) — 104.8 million units, 68.1 percent share (46.9 a year
earlier)
• iOS (Apple Inc.'s iPhone) — 26.0 million units, 16.9 percent share (18.8
percent a year earlier)
• BlackBerry (Research in Motion Ltd.) — 7.4 million units, 4.8 percent share
(11.5 percent a year earlier)
• Symbian (mostly used by Nokia Corp.) — 6.8 million units, 4.4 percent share
(16.9 percent a year earlier)
• Windows (Microsoft Corp.) — 5.4 million units, 3.5 percent share (2.3 percent
a year earlier)
• Linux — 3.5 million units, 2.3 percent share (3.0 percent a year earlier)
• Others — 0.1 million units, 0.1 percent share (0.5 percent a year earlier)
Source: IDC.
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Mobile Connections By Region
457M
530M
410M
530M
2.6B
552M
467M
Total Global Revenue: $906 billion (2010)
Source: Mobile Voice and Data Forecast Pack: 2010–15 © OVUM 2010
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Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Evolution of Mobile Technology
High Speed
Video-OnDemand
Capability Bandwidth Spectrum
Video
Conference
Push-to-talk
(PTT)
Customized
Infotainment
SMS
Speech
only
Late 1970s- 80s
1G
Analog Network
Voice mail
Caller ID
Multimedia
Messaging
Conference
Calling
Web Browsing
Speech
(digital)
Early 1990s
2G
GSM
Speech, Voice
mail, SMS
Late 1990s
2.5G
GPRS, EDGE
Video-OnDemand
Video
Conference
Streaming
Music
Streaming
Music
Streaming
Music
3D Gaming
3D Gaming
3D Gaming
Faster
Web
Browsing
Faster
Web
Browsing
Faster Web
Browsing
Full motion
Video
Speech, Voice
Mail, SMS,
Web Browsing,
MMS, PTT
Full motion
Video
Speech, Voice
Mail, SMS,
Web Browsing,
MMS, PTT
Full motion
Video
Speech,
Voice Mail,
SMS, Web
Browsing,
MMS, PTT
2000s
3G
3.5G
UMTS, WCDMA, EVDO Rev B, HSDPA,
CDMA 2000
DVB/DAB
Increasing array of products with greater demand for speed
4G
WiMax, LTE
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Improvement in Bits per Hertz Spectral Efficiency
40
Wireless Data Growth at AT&T
5000% growth over 12 quarters!
268% CAGR
Postpaid Subscribers with
Integrated Devices
?
Source:” Leveraging Standards to Serve
Growing Customer Needs” presentation by
Hank Kafka,Vice President, Architecture, AT&T
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Wireless Data Growth at AT&T
Customers in Millions
AT&T Cellular Customers
120
100
80
70.1
77.0
85.1
95.5
60
40
20
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
• From 1Q2008 until 4Q2009, there was a 30.3% shift in
the number of AT&T customers with Integrated Devices –
primarily iPhones
• During this same period, 18.5 million new customers
were added, and the data traffic increased by a factor of
13.5
iPhone users generated ~36X more
traffic than non-integrated devices
42
Growth of Mobile Data Traffic
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Future Bandwidth Requirements
FCC conclusions from “Mobile Broadband: the Benefits of Additional
Spectrum”, October 2010:
 It is likely that mobile data demand will exhaust spectrum resources
in the next five years;
 A spectrum deficit approaching 300 MHz is likely by 2014
 A narrowly circumscribed estimation of the economic benefit from
releasing additional spectrum … is likely to exceed $100 billion
Source: Rysavy Research, February 2010
44
Wireless Broadband Network Trends
• Internet and Applications Growth
• Wire-line and Wireless Traffic Growth
• Wireless Growth – Smart Phones and Beyond
• So
What?
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Obvious
• Facebook and Twitter are rapidly replacing
email and texting as the primary means of
electronic communications.
• From a business opportunity perspective,
Social Network focused software built to run with
an Android end-user device for the Asian market
seems like an obvious winner!
• Similarly, investments in companies with
Internet / Smart Phone based Social Networking
applications should be (or at least were) great
investments and job opportunities.
46
Less Obvious
• Smart Phones and Tablets are rapidly replacing
Laptops and Deskside Computers as the primary
means of access to the Internet. Need to focus on
these platforms.
• The world is becoming more transparent. You
can run, but not hide.
•Mobile devices must rely on the web that must
rely on the cloud for sustainable operations.
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Even Less Obvious
• The vast amount of saved information
offers enormous opportunities to better
understand the dynamics of political,
economic and technological trends.
•Big data applications are a really important
opportunity given the data that is being generated
and shared
• Unintended consequence (information security)
is a huge issue. Need for Computer Scientists
to work with other disciplines to meet the new
opportunities.
48
Computer Science Challenges
• Wireless mobile devices are less reliable. How can we
•
•
•
•
program them to provide reliable services?
Mobile programming platforms evolve very fast. How to
teach new technologies in Universities?
Cloud devices are cheaper. Auction-based cloud
devices are the cheapest. How can we program using
auction-based resources for reliable service delivery?
Supercomputers are awesome but too expensive. Can we
build supercomputer in the cloud?
What about auction-based supercomputers?
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Are you ready for the challenges?
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What Your Fellow Students Did…
• CIS1025: Web Programming for non-programmers
• CIS2305: Mobile Programming Technologies
• Apps and Maps Studios at Temple University
• Growshare.net: Google API Competition runner up (42 in
the world) http://growshare.net
• Campus Safety App:
51
Questions?
Contact: Dr. Justin Y. Shi | shi@temple.edu
Thank you!
52
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Backup Slides
53
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
54
Wireless Communications Trends
• Wireless Growth – SmartPhones and
Beyond
• Wire-line and Wireless Traffic Growth
• 3G and 4G Technology – Approaching
the Limits on Spectral Efficiency
• Capacity – the BIG Issue
55
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Spectrum Holdings of Top U.S. Cellular Carriers
Spectrum Bandwidth in MHz*
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Clearwire
140
AT&T
100
Verizon
91
LightSquared
59
T-Mobile
53
Sprint Nextel
50
MetroPCS Wireless
21
Leap Wireless
20
* Bandwidth in Top 100 U.S. Metropolitan Markets
Source: FCC Data and Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2011
Total = 534
MHz
160
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Future Traffic?
• AT&T’s experience has shown that Cisco’s forecast for Cellular Data
growth may be too conservative!
• Gartner has projected a 38% GAGR for Smartphones through 2015.
Taken together with Cisco’s projection for 92% GAGR for cellular data
traffic, increased usage by customers will drive a 54% increase.
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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[Source: Credit Suisse, May 2010]
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
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Traffic Multiplying Effect of High-end Devices
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
59
Spectral Efficiency is Close to Shannon’s Limit
Limits with MIMO
Shannon’s Limit
Source: “Digital Dividend: Potentials and Limitations of Mobile Broadband Access”, Helge Iliders and
Peter Vary, Institute of Communication Systems and Data Processing , RWTH Aachen University, Germany,
Published in Breitbandversorgung in Deutschland • 17. — 18. Marz 2010 in Berlin Paper 24
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
60
Spectral Efficiency is Close to Shannon’s Limit
Limits with MIMO
Shannon’s Limit
Significant increases in Cellular Capacity will have to
come from additional spectrum, and from spectrum
re-use - i.e., pico-cells.
Source: “Digital Dividend: Potentials and Limitations of Mobile Broadband Access”, Helge Iliders and
Peter Vary, Institute of Communication Systems and Data Processing , RWTH Aachen University, Germany,
Published in Breitbandversorgung in Deutschland • 17. — 18. Marz 2010 in Berlin Paper 24
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
61
Micro-Cellular Evolution
Car phones
Cell phones
Smartphones
Universal Personal Communicator
Technology
requires large
# of low cost
sites
Capacity is key
Capacity Limited
Traffic/User
LTE/WiMAX
UMTS/HSPA
GSM
Economics
favors small #
of macro sites
Capacity is
not an issue
Coverage Limited
AMPS
4G
Digital OFDM
3G
Digital CDMA
2G
Digital TDM
Thin macro cell overlays
Dense micro cell under lays
DAS for large buildings
1G
Analog
Microcells for outdoor; DAS
& Pico for enterprise; femto
for residential
Larger # macro cells; Indoor
coverage w/ more power;
Some micro in dense urban
cover only Small # large
macro cells outdoor
User Density
62
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
•
•
•
AMPS
GSM
Size of Cell Site
•
Spectral efficiency of cellular has
improved 20x
But
– users have grown 15x
– usage has grown 4x
– users have moved from voice to
requiring high speed data
– 200x bandwidth increase
A single cell site that supports 150,000
pops in AMPS will only support 1500
pops in 4G
Maximum cell sizes in urban areas will
shrink from 5 miles to a 300 yd radius in
4G
Micros and Picos will predominate
1G
Analog
UMTS/
HSPA
LTE/
WiMAX
2G
Digital TDM
3G
Digital CDMA
Micro
•
Macro
Decreasing Macro Cell Coverage Effectiveness
Low
High
Demand for Capacity
4G
Digital
OFDM
63
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Wireless Technology Positioning
Mobility / Range
Vehicle
High Speed
Vehicular
Rural
Walk
Vehicular
Urban
GSM
GPRS
3G/WCDMA
Pedestrian
Indoor
Personal Area
HSDPA
EDGE
Nomadic
Fixed urban
Fixed
FlashOFDM
(802.20)
IEEE
802.16e
DECT
WLAN
(IEEE 802.11x)
bluetooth
0.1
1
IEEE
802.16a,d
10
User data rate
100
Mbps
Source: Stand und zukünftige attraktive Arbeitsgebiete für den
Lehrstuhl für Kommunikationsnetze - Prof. Dr.-Ing. Bernhard Walke
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Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
64
Mobile Data Growth is Similar to Fixed Internet Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile, 2011
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
65
Wireless Communications Trends
• Wireless Growth – SmartPhones and
Beyond
• Wire-line and Wireless Traffic Growth
• 3G and 4G Technology – Approaching
the Limits on Spectral Efficiency
• Capacity – the BIG Issue
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
66
Impact of Internet Traffic Growth
“At current growth rates, Internet traffic will increase by
a factor of 1000 or three orders of magnitude in roughly
20 years. It will be challenging for transmission and
routing / switching systems to keep pace with this level
of growth without requiring prohibitively large increases
in network cost and power consumption.”
“MEETING THE BANDWIDTH DEMAND
CHALLENGE:TECHNOLOGIES AND NETWORK ARCHITECTURAL
OPTIONS” IEEE Communications Magazine • January 2010 Editorial
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
67
Wireless Communications Trends
• Wireless Growth – SmartPhones and
Beyond
• Wire-line and Wireless Traffic Growth
• 3G and 4G Technology – Approaching
the Limits on Spectral Efficiency
• Capacity – the BIG Issue
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
68
Mobile Revenue By Region
$59B
$203B
$203B
$52B
$267B
$54B
$68B
Total Global Revenue: $906 billion (2010)
Source: Mobile Voice and Data Forecast Pack: 2010–15 © OVUM 2010
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
69
Growth of social networking services - Twitter
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Number of Internet Users
10000
Worldwide
1000
Millions
Number of Users
12% CAGR
U.S.
100
10
1
Year
Source: International Telecommunications Union
70
71
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Growth of Mobile-only Internet Users
Global
Users
Number of Users, Millions
1,000
100
Slope = 35X in 10 Years
143% per Year
10
1
2010
2011
2012
2013
Year
2014
2015
72
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
Strong growth in 3G telephony
7'000
Millions
Global Mobile BB Subscribers
Mobile BB subscribers
3G % mobile
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
15
11
8
5.6
3.2
0.5
1.7
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Mobile subscribers (total & 3G)
2007-2014
6'000
3G
5'000
4'000
3'413
Other
5'024
4'587
5'567
5'842
6'179
6'456
3'909
3'000
2'000
1'000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
2007
2008
2009
2010 2011
2012
2013
5 bn total cellular subscribers, 1 bn mobile broadband subscribers in 2010.
6.5 bn total cellular mobile subscribers, of which 43% 3G in 2014.
Source: ITU (left); Morgan Stanley
International Telecommunication Union – March 2010
2014
73
Wireless Trends © Walt Davis 2011
3G Growth by Region
Global growth in IMT-2000 countries, 2000-2009
130
140
Europe
nb countries
120
109
CIS
100
Asia-Pacific
80
Arab States
89
70
Americas
60
Africa
43
40
30
20
0
0
1
2
9
21
38
36
21
17
33
14
24
9
22
19
12
9
4
42
14
9
18
26
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: ITU World Telecommunication Regulatory Database March 2010