Introduction to Economics Outline: Lecture One Information About the Course Elements of Personal Finance Buying Llad Phillips or Leasing a Car 1 Economics 109 Llad Phillips Introduction to Economics Fall 1998 Hour, Location: 2:00-3:15, Phelps 1260 Instructor: Llad Phillips Office Hours: NH 3032, 9:30-10:15 TuTh and 3:30-3:50 TuTh, and by appointment, Texts: Kenneth Morris and Alan Siegel,The Wall Street Journal Guide to Understanding Personal Finance, Revised(1997) Arthur O’Sullivan and Steven Sheffrin, Economics, Principles and Tools(1998) Labs(sections) in the Micro Computer Lab(MCL) 11189 F 9:00-9:50 P333 Lab, Phelps 1526, JD 11197 M 7:00-7:50 PM P333 Lab, Phelps 1526, JA 11205 W 8:00-8:50P333 Lab, Phelps 1526, JD 11213 M 5:00-5:50 PM P200 Lab, Phelps 1525, JA 62646T 4:00-4:50 PM P333 Lab, Phelps 1526, LP TH 4:00-4:50 PM P333 Lab, Phelps 1526, LP Teaching Assistants: Joshua Anderson, Office Hours: NH 2036 Th 3:30-4:30, F 3-4;John Davis, Office Hours: NH 2032 Th 1-2, F 10-11 Exams: Quiz: Thursday, Oct. 15,. You will need a scantron sheet and a #2 pencil Midterm: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2:00-3:15 PM. Scantron & #2 Final: Tuesday, Dec. 8, 4:00-7:00 PM, Scantron & #2 Problem Assignments: At least half of the questions on the 25 minute quiz will be from the assigned problems. Due at the next Lab(section). Standing Assignment: Read the business section of the Los Angeles Times Course Home Page: http://www.econ.ucsb.edu/econ109 Lecture Topics and Reading List Part One Personal Finance: Economics in Everday Life 1. Tuesday Sept. 29, Lecture One: "Choosing a method to finance a car" Buying or Leasing a car The choice between: paying cash leasing buying on time Reading Assignment: Guide to Understanding Personal Finance, Ch. 2, "Credit" O’Sullivan and Sheffrin: Ch.1, “Introduction: What is Economics?” emphasis: concepts of scarcity and production possibilities curve O’Sullivan and Sheffrin: Appendix to Ch.1, “Using Graphs and Formulas” Problems O & S Text: p.14: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. p. 21: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Introduction to Economics Elements of Personal Finance Llad Phillips 7 Elements of Personal Finance Economics in every day life buying or leasing a car buying or renting a home personal financial planning managing personal investments managing a household budget determinants of personal income Llad Phillips 8 Buying or Leasing a Car Your choice of vehicle Is it what you need? Is it what you want? Is it what you can afford? Loss of value through depreciation of your car physical wear and tear decrease in resale value: paying a premium for newness Llad Phillips 9 Economic Concept: Consumer Durable, e.g. car, refrigerator perishable good: strawberries experience with Farmers’ Markets Haymarket Square in Boston Why did institutional buyers, such as convents, buy on late Saturday afternoons? durable good: car resale value declines each year How Llad Phillips does this affect choice of which car to buy? 10 Sources of Information Kelley Blue Book: Used Car Guide bookstores Kelley Blue Book: Internet Universal Resource Locator(URL) http://www.kbb.com/ Manufactuters Nissan http://www.nissan-usa.com/ Llad Phillips 11 Kelley Blue Book Kelley Blue Book Kelley Blue Book http://www.nissan-usa.com/ Economic Decision Making choice of a vehicle Nissan Altima XE 4-Dr Sedan Ford Taurus 4-Dr Sedan choice of payment method cash lease payment Llad Phillips plan 16 Economists Assume You Know What You Like Lingo: economists call these consumer tastes or consumer preferences Llad Phillips 17 Economists Assume You Can make Comparisons example 1996 Altima vs. 1996 Ford Taurus compare specifications or attributes we know price for a bundle of attributes • e.g. horsepower, miles per gallon, etc. dealer invoice (with destination charge) Altima: $14,641 Taurus: $17,171 manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) Altima: $16,219 Taurus: $18,545 Llad Phillips 18 Economists Assume You Can Make Tradeoffs Do you prefer a Ford Taurus or an Altima plus $2,326 = $18,545 - $16,219 ? If you prefer the Ford, then you buy the Taurus If you prefer the Nissan plus the cash, then you buy the Altima If you are indifferent between these two options or bundles of goods ( car plus cash), then you might buy either one Llad Phillips 19 Economics Framework: Converting Data Into Useful Information for Decisions Kelley’s Prices Data Nissan’s Specs Framework “Your Tastes” Decision: Choice of Vehicle Llad Phillips Information 20 Economics Framework: Converting Data Into Useful Information for Decisions ? Data ? Framework Decision: Choice of Payment Llad Phillips Information 21 Choice of Payment Method cash lease loan Llad Phillips 22 http://www.fordcredit.com/nafo/rcl/agreement.html Walnut Creek Dealer: 1996, Ford Taurus, $16,488 Example 5,976 + tax 249 + tax Example 249 + tax 24 months 5,976 + tax Depreciation: Taurus, GL Sedan Year 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 MSRP 18,545 18,295 18,280 17,675 17,619 16,595 16,054 Kelley* Depreciation 14,750 13,350 11,700 10,200 8,800 7,750 3,545 4,930 5,975 7,419 7,795 8,304 * Excellent Condition Llad Phillips 26 Depreciation: Taurus Depreciation, $ 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 Llad Phillips 2 4 Age of Vehicle 6 27 Taurus Depreciation As Fraction of MSRP 0.6 0.5 Fraction 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 Llad Phillips 2 4 Age of Vehicle 6 28 Choice: cash purchase price: $16,488 tax at 7.5 %: $1,237 documents: $35 total: $17,760 Llad Phillips 29 Keep Your Money * @ 6.9 % interest Buy The Car, Cash This Year Next Year Year After $17,760 $17,760 $17,760 $1,225* $1,225 $1,225 $17,760 Resale value: $18,985 $20,210 Car’s Services For 1 Yr. Car’s Services For 2 Yrs. $14,947** $13,538# ** MSRP - Depreciation = MSRP - MSRP * 0.194 = $18,545 * 0.806 # MSRP - Depreciation = MSRP - MSRP * 0.27 = $18,545 * 0.73 Cost of Car’s Services: $4,038(1 Yr.) & $6,672(2 Yrs.) Llad Phillips 30 Note: The first years cost: $18,985 - $14,947 = $4,038 (principal + interest) -depreciation = principal (depreciation - interest) this expression explains the final cost of paying cash in Morris & Siegel, Guide to Understanding Personal Finance, pp. 36-37, in Revised and Updated version, pp. 48-49. Llad Phillips 31 Economic Principles A dollar today is not the same as a dollar tomorrow! $10 today @ 6.9% = $10 * 1.069 next year The “opportunity cost” of spending your money is the foregone interest. The cost of buying the services of the car, neglecting operating costs: depreciation: owning a new car foregone interest Llad Phillips 32 Economics Framework: Converting Data Into Useful Information for Decisions ? Data ? Framework: Depreciation Foregone Interest Decision: Choice of Payment Llad Phillips Information 33 Choice: Lease drive-off costs(payments due at lease signing): $2,136.77 total of 24 monthly payments: $7248 = 24 months * $302 per month monthly Payment: $249 + tax tax + documents = $1237 + $35 = $1272, or $53 per month total: $9384.77 Llad Phillips 34 Buy The This Year Car, Cash Next Year Year After foregone interest on $17,760: $1,225* depreciation: $2,813# * @ 6.9 % interest $4,038 $2,450 $4,222 $6,672 # price+tax-blue book = $17,760 - 0.806*$18,545 Lease, 24 months total drive-off: $2,137 $2,137 total monthly payments @$302/m.: $3,624 $147 foregone interest on $2,137**: $7,248 $294 $5908 $9679 ** Assumes no opportunity cost of monthly payments Llad Phillips 35 Example: Buying a New ‘96 Taurus: Advertised Price $16488 Knowns advertised price + tax + documents: $17,760 down payment: $2,137 loan amount: $15,623 loan amount = $17,760 - $2,137 annual interest rate: 6.9% loan term in months: 24 months Unknowns monthly Llad Phillips payment ( $698.77) 36 Choice: Two year Loan @ 6.9% Loan Cost = Principal + Interest = $16,771 principal = loan =$15,623 interest = $1,148 Resale Value After 2 Years 0.73*$18,545 = $13,538 foregone interest on $2137: $294 total cost = $5,664 $16,771 Llad Phillips - $13,538 + $294 37 Cost of Using a ‘96 Taurus for 2 Yrs. Cost item foregone interest depreciation total drive-off monthly payments down payment monthly payments blue book** total Cash Lease Loan $2,450 $294 $294 $4,222 $2,137 $7,428* $2,137 $3,233 $6,672 $9,679 $5,664 * residual value: $11,480 ** blue book: $13,538 Llad Phillips 38 Summary - Vocabulary - Concepts opportunity cost depreciation interest on principal lease loan services of a car Llad Phillips 39 http://www/latimes.com Llad Phillips 40 SCARCITY AND PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY CURVES Production Possibility Curve A visual representation of tradeoffs that arise in an economy that produces two goods. A picture of the choices which can be made when considering the production of two goods. Llad Phillips 41 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY CURVE (FRONTIER) A production possibility curve shows how all of an economies available resources can be used to produce various combinations of goods and services. Llad Phillips 42 WHAT ARE RESOURCES? Labor -- human effort used to produce Production facilities (PHYSICAL CAPITAL) -- factories, offices, stores, restaurants • Human Capital -- knowledge and skills acquired by workers Natural Resources (LAND) -- things created by acts of nature and used to produce Llad Phillips 43 GRAPHING POSSIBILITIES Llad Phillips 44 Y GRAPHING POSSIBILITIES X Llad Phillips 45 Y GRAPHING POSSIBILITIES Thousands of computers per year X Number of Space Missions Per Year Llad Phillips 46 Y Thousands of computers per year GRAPHING POSSIBILITIES PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY CURVE X Number of Space Missions Per Year Llad Phillips 47 Y Thousands of computers per year 380 GRAPHING POSSIBILITIES PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY CURVE e 4 Number of Space Missions Per Year Llad Phillips X 48 Y GRAPHING POSSIBILITIES Thousands of computers per year 380 300 PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY CURVE e f 4 5 Number of Space Missions Per Year Llad Phillips X 49