Agenda Control in Denmark
1971-2003
Gary W. Cox, Mathew D.
McCubbins, and Asbjorn
Skjaeveland
• In all national assemblies of which we are aware, there
are certain offices to which extraordinary agenda
powers attach.
• We define an agenda cartel as a set of agents
possessing two key properties.
– First, they collectively hold a controlling share of the agendasetting offices relevant to a given assembly.
– Second, the cartel establishes a procedure for agreeing on
which proposals will be allowed access to the plenary session.
Whether decentralized or centralized, formal or informal,
this procedure amounts to investing k groups within the
cartel, C1,...,Ck, with vetoes over the placement of
proposals upon the plenary agenda.
Two subspecies of agenda cartel
• First, in parliamentary systems, it is often said
that each pivotal party in a multi-party majority
coalition wields an agenda veto. We call this a
parliamentary agenda cartel.
• Second, Cox and McCubbins (2002, 2005)
suggest that any majority of the majority party
can veto the placement of items on the floor
agenda in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Agenda Power
• When a parliamentary agenda cartel exists, it is as if the
legislative agenda were set as follows.
– (1) Whoever wishes may introduce bills.
– (2) In order for a bill to advance to the plenary session under the
current government, however, it must be acceptable to each veto
player, or gatekeeper, C1,...,Ck.
– (3) Bills that are not vetoed ex ante are decide in plenary session
under open rules with germaneness restrictions. The outcome of
which, in a one-dimensional policy game, is that the enacted bill
will be located at the location of the median voter’s ideal point
(Black, Downs).
• In this model, the veto players should never lose
(i.e., have an unwanted policy change forced upon
them).
The cartel thesis
• The cartel thesis is that, if a majority
government forms, then it will also
constitute an agenda cartel.
Rolls and Roll Rates
• Operationally, if a majority of a party votes against a bill
that nonetheless passes, we say that the party has been
rolled.
– Prior to the final passage stage, there are also sometimes clear
agenda-setting votes—that is, votes to determine whether the
legislature will or will not consider in plenary session a particular
bill. We also speak of parties being rolled on these initial
agenda-setting motions, when they vote against them but the
motion nonetheless passes. Under conditions of complete
and perfect information and with costless action, if a party
wields a veto, it should never be rolled.
• Roll rates are just the proportion of total votes on which a
party was rolled. In what follows we examine only final
passage votes or FPVs.
Floor Agenda (Median Voter) Model
• What if there is no agenda cartel and no party wields a
veto?
• If we assume that all parties can be placed along a
traditional left-right scale, so that successful bills
necessarily propose to move policy toward the median
legislator’s ideal point, then we have a very simple
expectation: The median party is never rolled, while roll
rates increase monotonically both to the left and to the
right.
– The intuition behind this result is straightforward. The median
party cannot be rolled because it is not possible to form a
majority that wants to move policy away from the median in a
unidimensional model.
Cartel Agenda Model: Hypotheses
H1) Under complete and perfect information, and with
costless gatekeeping, the roll rate of governmental parties
will be zero.
H2) The roll rate of opposition parties should be higher
than the roll rate of governmental parties, all else constant.
H3) The roll rates of opposition parties should increase
the farther is their median ideal point from the floor median.
That is, the greater is, the greater an opposition party’s roll
rate will be, all else constant. Government Party roll rates,
by contrast, should not be affected by distance from the
assembly median.
Denmark
Average roll rates
1971-2003
• In government parties: .0123
– Range: 0 to .068
• Opposition parties: .208
– Range: 0 to .80
Effect of Distance (in absolute
value) on roll rates
Cartel Agenda
Model
Floor Agenda
Model
Majority Party
0
+
Minority Party
+
+
.04
0
.02
rollrate
.06
.08
Relationship between Distance (in absolute
value) and roll rates, in government parties
1971-2003
(Is it positive or zero?)
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
Distance (in absolute value) and
roll rates, government parties
Coefficient (z score)
Distance (in absolute
value)
Constant
1.69(0.75)
Log Likelihood
-805.25491
Psuedo R2
.14
N
91
-1.89 (-6.06) ***
Estimated using Extended Beta Binomial
*** - significant at .001 level
.4
.2
0
rollrate
.6
.8
Relationship between Distance (in absolute
value) and roll rates, opposition parties
1971-2003
(Is it positive or zero?)
0
.5
1
distance
1.5
Distance (in absolute value) and
roll rates,
opposition parties
Coefficient (z score)
Distance (in absolute
value)
Constant
1.68 (10.73)***
Log Likelihood
- 16633.614
Psuedo R2
.11
N
223
-2.08 (-21.20) ***
Estimated using Extended Beta Binomial
*** - significant at .001 level
Comparing Predictions of the Relationship
Between Roll Rates and Distance for
the Floor Agenda Model and
Cartel Agenda Model
Legend: (1) O-L, Left Opposition Party; (2) O-M, Moderate
Opposition Party; (3) O-R, Right Opposition Party; (4) G-L, Left
Government Party; (5) G-M, Median Government Party
O-L
G-L
G-M
O-M
Cartel Agenda Model Predictions
Floor Agenda Model Predictions
O-R
.15
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rate
1971-1972
0
.1
0
.05
rollrate
0
0
0
1
0
.5
distance
1
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.15
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rate
1972-1973
rollrate
.1
0
0
.05
0
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.4
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rate
1973-1974
0
.3
0
.2
0
.1
0
0
0
0
0
rollrate
0
1
0
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
.8
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rate
1974-1975
.4
0
0
.2
rollrate
.3
0
0
.1
0
0
000
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1975-1976
.4
0
rollrate
.3
0
.2
0
0
.1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
.1
.2
distance
.3
.4
.5
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.3
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1976-1977, session 1
0
rollrate
.2
0
.1
0
0
0
1 0
0
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
.8
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1976-1977, session 2
.4
0
0
0
0
.1
.2
rollrate
.3
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
.8
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1977-1978
0
.4
0
0
.2
rollrate
.3
0
0
0
0
.1
0
0
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.8
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1978-1979
.6
0
.4
0
0
.2
0
0
0
0
0
rollrate
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
.8
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1980-1981
.5
0
.4
0
.3
0
.2
0
.1
0
0
0
0
0
rollrate
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1981-1982
.4
.5
0
.3
0 0
0
.2
0
.1
0
0
1
0
rollrate
0
0
.5
1
1.5
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.4
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1982-1983
0
.2
0
.1
0
1
1
0
0
rollrate
.3
0
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1983-1984, session 1
.4
0
.2
0
.1
0
1
0
0
rollrate
.3
0
0
.2
.4
.6
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1983-1984, session 2
0
.4
0
.2
rollrate
.3
0
.1
0
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1984-1985
0
rollrate
.3
.4
0
0
.1
.2
0
1 1
0
0
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1985-1986
.4
.5
0
0
.3
.2
.1
0
1
1
0
0
rollrate
0
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1986-1987
.4
0
rollrate
.3
0
.2
0
.1
0
1
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.6
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1987-1988, session 1
rollrate
.4
0
0
.2
0
0
0
10
0
.1
.2
distance
.3
.4
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1987-1988, session 2
.4
0
.3
0
.2
.1
0
0
rollrate
0
1
0
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.4
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1988-1989
.2
0
0
.1
0
1
1
0
0
rollrate
.3
0
0
.1
.2
.3
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1989-1990
.3
0
.2
0
.1
rollrate
0
0
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1990-1991, session 2
.3
0
.1
rollrate
.2
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
.2
.4
.6
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1993 -1994
0
.2
0
.1
0
0
rollrate
.3
.4
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.4
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1994-1995
.3
0
.2
0
0
.1
0
0
rollrate
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.4
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1995-1996
0
.2
0
0
0
0
.1
0
rollrate
.3
0
1
0
1
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.4
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1997-1998, session 1
0
.3
0
.2
0
0
0
.1
0
rollrate
0
1
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
.8
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1997-1998, session 2
.5
0
.4
0
.3
0
0
0
.1
.2
0
0
rollrate
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
.8
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.5
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1998-1999
.4
0
.3
0
0
.1
.2
rollrate
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.4
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
1999 - 2000
0
0
0
0
.2
0
0
0
.1
0
rollrate
.3
0
1
0
.2
.4
distance
.6
.8
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
.6
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
2001-2002, second session
0
rollrate
.4
0
0
.2
0
0
0
0
1
0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition
Distance (in absolute value) and roll rates
2002-2003
.4
.5
0
.2
rollrate
.3
0
0
0
.1
0
0
0
1
0
.5
1
1.5
distance
Labels indicate govt. status: 1=in government; 0 = in opposition