Which factors forecast most
accurately which of the nominees will
win Best Picture?
Total Revenue (adjusted)
Total Budget (adjusted)
Running Time
Director Experience
Source Material
Studio
Genre
Release Date
Winning Nominees
Summary Statistics
Mean
Revenue
Minimum Maximu
m
Median
Standard
Deviation
242438461 16894615 805056171 185472335 188485606
Budget
47569153 4158000
26800000 36300000
0
46985166
Running
Time
144.59
93
219
133
33.34
Days
170.46
released
before
ceremony
68
409
129
95.65
Losing Nominees
Summary Statistics
Mean
Minimum Maximum Median
Standard
Deviation
Revenue
18167119 14719007 21388500 92361268 27418963
7
00
6
Budget
39212831 2440000
17550000 28893000 34417879
0
Running
Time
131.98
84
194
128
23.88
Days
187.34
released
before
ceremony
57
444
135.5
113.86
Does a closer release date indicate a
higher chance of winning?
T-Test
H0
Days from μw-μL=0
Ceremony
H1
P Value
μ w-μL<0
.1880
95% Confidence.
Variable
Intercept
Adjusted
Revenue
Adjusted
Budget
Days from
release to
award
Coefficients
P-value
-0.054078819
0.84446358
1.35159E-10
0.393175424
-8.61494E-10
0.476716168
-0.000111417
0.753687073
0.004166588
0.023103215
Experienced
Director
-0.203595373
0.00943012
Comedy
-0.116411456
0.390173456
Drama
-0.113457394
0.251954524
Thriller
-0.247609864
0.048548348
-0.12130757
0.184288749
-0.050586749
0.541565801
Running Time
True Story
Original
Major Studio
0.066714224
0.401458856
R-Squared
.143
Significance F
0.034
n
143
Our Equation
Ŷ=1.35E-10x1-8.62E-10x2-1.1E4x +0.0042x -0.20x -0.12x 3
4
5
6
0.114x7-0.25x8-0.12x90.05x10+.067x11
X1=Adjusted Revenue
x2=Adjusted Budget
X5= Director Experience
X6=Comedy
X3= Release Date
X7= Drama
X4= Running Time
X8= Thriller
X9= True Story
X10= Original
X11= Major Studio
Film
Lost in Translation
ŷ
.312678
Master and
Commander
0.299045
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
0.167013
0.447025
The Lord of the Rings:
The Return of the
King
0.664269
Film
ŷ
Slumdog
Millionaire
0.448771
The Curious
Case of
Benjamin
Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
0.527424
0.117674
0.116869
0.242687
Conclusions
The strongest correlation we found in the variables we tested
was a positive correlation between running time and Oscar
Winnings
We showed that the common assertion that films with release
dates closer to the awards ceremony are more likely to win is
likely a myth
Interestingly, we found a Negative correlation between
experience of director and winning.
Overall, our model can only account for 11% of the variability in
Data.
You cannot quantitatively measure how “good” a movie is.
Data Collection
Regression
Based
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by
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Thanks to:
Credits
imdb.com
Rajat Gupta
boxofficemojo.com
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