THE BRADLEY EFFECT
AND THE
DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION
Answering questions and testing hypotheses
on data for the presidential elections
in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008
Wout Ultee
Radboud University Nijmegen
November 11, 2008
Course Contemporary sociological theories
Second bachelor year
WHY DID OBAMA WIN FROM McCAIN?
HE GOT MORE MONEY FOR TV-ADS THAN McCAIN
BUT WHY DID OBAMA GET MORE MONEY THAN McCAIN?
THERE ARE MORE RESOURCES THAN MONEY
OTHER RESOURCES ARE SYMBOLIC
AND AN EFFECTIVE SYMBOLIC RESOURCE IS CHARISMA
OR FLUENCY, THE GIFT OF THE GAB, RHETORICS
SYMBOLIC RESOURCES, YES, OBAMA USED THEM
AND OBAMA OBTAINED MONEY IN THAT WAY
BUT OBAMA NOT ONLY UTILIZED SYMBOLIC
RESOURCES
OBAMA ALSO FACED SYMBOLIC HANDICAPS
OBAMA’S FOREMOST SYMBOLIC HANDICAP
WAS THE COLOR OF HIS SKIN
HOW MUCH EFFECT DID THIS SYMBOLIC
HANDICAP HAVE?
WE COMPLEMENT A MARXIST HYPOTHESIS WITH A RICH
VERSION OF A WEBERIAN HYPOTHESIS
THIS CARTOON DRIVES HOME A SUPOSEDLY DISAPPEARING
EFFECT OF OBAMA’S SYMBOLIC HANDICAP
THE QUESTION OF THIS PRESENTATION: THEY DID, REALLY ?
STATE RESULTS FOR 2004
THE PREVIOUS MAP IS FOR 2004 AND VERY
RED,
WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE A
REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON
BUT THE NEXT ONE FOR 2008 IS STILL
VERY RED,
ALTHOUGH A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE
WON
THE OUTCOME OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2008
THE MAPS WE JUST SAW ARE QUITE MISLEADING AND
FAVOUR THE REPUBLICANS TOO MUCH:
STATES DIFFER IN POPULATION DENSITY, WHEREAS
DEMOCRACY MEANS ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE
AND THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST POPULATION DENSITY
ARE THE MOST REPUBLICAN
THE NEXT MAP GIVES STATES A SIZE PROPORTIONATE TO
THEIR NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
AND THAT NUMBER OF SEATS IS PROPORTIONATE TO THE
NUMBER OF INHABITANTS OF A STATE
ONCE MORE THE OUTCOME OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
THIS MAP IS PAINTED IN BLUE,
AND EVEN MORE IF THE COLOR THE
BLUE-WHITE STATES BECOME BLUE
WE NOW MOVE FROM DATA AT THE
LEVEL OF STATES
TO DATA AT THE LEVEL OF
INDIVIDUALS
INDIVIDUAL DATA OFTEN ALLOW
FOR STRONGER TESTS OF
HYPOTHESES
WE LATER WIL STUDT DATA ON
COUNTIES, A LEVEL IN BETWEEN
STATES AND INDIVIDUALS
YOU AS A YOUNG PERSON
WILL LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH
THE GRAPH IS TAKEN FROM
THE DUTCH NEWSPAPER
NRC-HANDELSBLAD:
ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS
YOUNG PERSONS WERE THE
MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR
OBAMA
BUT DO YOU AS
A WHITE PERSON
LIKE THE NEXT
GRAPH?
WHITES IN 2008 WERE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE
FOR A WHITE REPUBLICAN THAN FOR A
BLACK DEMOCRAT
YET, THE NEXT CLIPPING FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SAYS THAT
THE USA IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS JUMPED ITS LONG-STANDING
COLOR LINE
SO, DID THAT COUNTRY, REALLY?
BACK TO THE DID-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS
QUESTION:
GIVEN THE NRC-HANDELSBLAD GRAPH,
COMPUTE THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO
DOES THIS STATISTIC TELL ENOUGH ABOUT
SURMOUNTING THE RACIAL BARRIER IN US
POLITICS?
NO, THAT DEPENDS UPON THE VALUE OF
THIS ODDS RATIO IN THE 2004
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
COMPUTE THIS ODDS RATIO GIVEN THE
FOLLOWING FOUR GRAPHS FOR 2008,
2004, 1992 and 1980
THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM THE
WEBSITE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES AND
THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE
SINCE RECENTLY CALLED THE GLOBAL
EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 74, 13, 9 and 2,
and those for religion 52%, 27, 2 and 40
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 2008
IS 30.4
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 77, 11, 8
and 2, and those for religion 54, 27, 3 and 42
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 2004
IS 11.3
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 87, 8, 2 and 1,
and those for religion 56%, 21, 4 and 22
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 1992
IS 8.5
The n’s for computing percentages for race are 89, 11, 2
and not avialable, and those for religion 51%, 27, 5 and
not available
THE BLACK/WHITE
DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN
ODDS RATIO
FOR 1980
IS 12.0
IF THE ODDS RATIO IS A GOOD MEASURE
FOR THE BLACK/WHITE POLITICAL RIFT
THAT RIFT INCREASED IN THE SHORT RUN
AND IN MEDIUM TERM ONE
AND IN THE LONG RUN
OF COURSE
UPON CLOSER INSPECTION
THE 2008 INCREASE IS THERE
BECAUSE IN 2008 THE ODDS FOR
BLACKS TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT
INCREASED MORE THAN THESE ODDS
FOR WHITES
BUT DID THE ODDS FOR CERTAIN
WHITES TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATE PERHAPS DECREASE?
TOM-JAN MEEUS AND DIRK VLASBLOM OF
NRC-HANDELSBLAD IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS
MENTIONED THE BRADLEY EFFECT
IN POLLS CERTAIN WHITES SAY THEY ARE
GOING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE
BUT WHEN CASTING THEIR VOTE
WHITES VOTE FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE
THE LEAD OF OBAMA IN THE POLLS WAS A BIT
LARGER THAN HIS LEAD IN THE ACTUAL
ELECTION OUTCOME
ACTUAL OUTCOME: 52 VERSUS 46 PERCENT
POLLS: A DIFFERENCE OF 8 PERCENT
BUT THAT IS A WEAK TEST OF THE
BRADLEY EFFECT
AND THE ALL-IMPORTANT QUESTION REMAINS
UNANSWERED:
ARE WHITE PERSONS LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A
BLACK THAN FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE ?
WHERE IN THE USA
MIGHT THE WHITE PERSONS LIVE
WHO ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE
FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE ?
WHICH STATES OF THE USA
WERE THE LAST ONES TO DO AWAY WITH
RACIAL LAWS?
TO WHICH STATES DID THE BILLY- HOLIDAY
HYPOTHESIS APPLY MOST STRONGLY?
WE ENCOUNTERED THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS IN
THE FIRST BACHELOR YEAR DURING THE COURSE
SOCIOLOGY’S MAIN QUESTIONS
IT ALSO FEAUTURES IN THE CLIPPING WE NOW REREAD
PINPOINT THE PERTINENT PHRASE !
THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS INVOKES
THE STRANGE FRUITS HANGING FROM
SOUTHERN TREES
MOST AFRO-AMERICANS (BLACKS,
NEGROES, COLOURED PEOPLE)
SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE UNITED
STATES WERE LEGALLY SLAVES
AFTER THE CIVIL WAR AND THE LEGAL
ABOLITION OF SLAVERY
THE DISADVANTAGED POSITION OF BLACKS
WAS MAINTAINED BY VARIOUS OTHER NEW
RACIAL LAWS
AND BY THE DENIAL OF DUE PROCESS IN
COURT BY MOB LYNCHING
THE LAST RACIAL LAWS WERE SCRAPPED IN
THE 1960s,
THE PERIOD OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS
MOVEMENT
SO, THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS
APPLIES MOST STRONGLY TO
THE SOUTHERN STATES OF THE USA
THE STATES WHICH LOST THE CIVIL
WAR OF THE EARLY 1860s
THE SOUTHERN STATES ARE THE ONES THAT LOST
THE 1861-1865 CIVIL WAR IN THE UNITED STATES
THEY WERE CALLED CONFEDERATE STATES AND
THEY ARE NAMED:
ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, FLORIDA, GEORGIA,
MISSISSIPPI, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA,
TEXAS, VIRGINIA
ALL THESE STATES HAD LAWS ALLOWING SLAVERY
THE STATES THAT ALLOWED SLAVERY BUT STAYED
WITHIN THE UNION DURING THE CIVIL WAR WERE:
DELAWARE , KENTUCKY , MARYLAND , MISSOURI ,
WEST VIRGINIA
FROM THE TIMES ATLAS OF WORLD HISTORY 1979
DIGRESSION
TO WHAT EXTENT DID LYNCHING
OCCUR IN THE UNITED STATES
AND WHERE DID IT OCCUR WITH THE
HIGHEST RELATIVE FREQUENCY ?
Two slides from
Franklin E. Zimring
The contradictions of American Capital Punishment
Oxford, Oxford University Press
Pages 90 and 91
NOW WE ARE GOING TO TEST
THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE
PERSONS IN THE SOUTH
ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE
FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE
TO DO THIS, WE NOW TAKE
NEITHER STATES NOR INDIVIDUALS
AS THE UNITS OF ANALYSIS
BUT COUNTIES WITHIN STATES
AND WE STUDY THE CHANGES IN ELECTORAL
OUTCOMES OF COUNTIES
BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008
THESE CHANGES FOR COUNTIES ARE
SURPRISINGLY INFORMATIVE
THE COUNTIES WHERE, IN OPPOSITION
TO THE TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATIC VOTES
IN ALL STATES OF THE USA TAKEN
TOGETHER,
THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED
ARE TO BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH OF
THE USA
THE FOLLOWING CLIPPINGS ARE FROM
THE IHT PRINT EDITION
THIS STATEMENT APPEARED NOT IN THE IHT OF
NOVEMBER 6, BUT THE ISSUE OF NOVEMBER 7
THE PREVIOUS MAPS ARE A BIT MISLEADING
THEY PORTRAY BOTTOM AND CEILING EFFECTS
IT IS NOT WISE TO COMPUTE DIFFERENCE
SCORES:
THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED WITH XX
PERCENT ETC
A STRONG INCREASE OF PERCENTAGES IS
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
IF THE FIRST PERCENTAGE ALREADY IS HIGH
WHAT SHOULD BE DONE INSTEAD :
REGRESS FOR COUNTIES
THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE ON
THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
AND DO SO
SEPERATELY FOR COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH
AND COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SOUTH
BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE PRESENT MEETING
ANOTHER TEST OF THE
HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE
PERSONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO
VOTE FOR A BLACK
CANDIDATE
REGRESSES FOR STATES
THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
ON THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC
VOTE
STIJN RUITER MADE THE NEXT GRAPH
IN THE SCATTERGRAM MOST SOUTHERN
STATES ARE BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE:
ALABAMA , ARKANSAS , LOUISIANA ,
MISSISSIPPI , SOUTH CAROLINA ,
TENNESSEE , WEST VIRGINIA
TOGETHER WITH ALASKA AND ARIZONA, THE
STATE FROM WHICH McCAIN AND PALIN
ORIGINATE
WHEN DRAWING THE REGRESSION LINE
WASHINGTON DC WITH A MORE THAN 90
PERCENT DEMOCRATIC VOTE WAS LEFT OUT
OKLOHOMA IS BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE
BUT WAS NOT A STATE DURING THE CIVIL WAR
FLORIDA , TEXAS , NORTH CAROLINA , AND
VIRGINIA ARE SOUTHERN STATES ON THE
REGRESSION LINE
FLORIDA HAS A LOT OF REFUGEES FROM CUBA
AND THESE LATINOS VOTED DEMOCRATIC
PARTS OF VIRGINIA BECAME COMMUTER AREAS
FOR PEOPLE WORKING IN WASHINGTON DC
TEXAS HAD A LOT OF DISTRICTS WITH MORE
REPUBLICAN VOTES
BUT THAT TENDENCY IN TEXAS PROBABLY IS
OFFSET BY THE LATINO DEMOCRATIC VOTE
THAT SOUTHERN STATES
FALL BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE
IS QUITE SURPRISING
SOUTHERN STATES AFTER ALL
HAVE A HIGHER PERCENTAGE
OF BLACK INHABITANTS
AS THE NEXT MAP MAKES CLEAR
FROM
THE
WEBSITE
OF THE
U.S.A.
BUREAU
OF THE
CENSUS
THEREFORE
IF AT THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL
BLACKS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE
REPUBLICAN
IN COUNTIES OR IN STATES WITH A
HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS
ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL
THE 2008 VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS
SHOULD BE STRONGER
YET THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE
IN COUNTIES AND STATES WITH A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS
IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACCORDING
TO THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE
SO, OTHER THINGS DID NOT REMAIN
EQUAL
SOUTHERN WHITES MOVED TO
REPUBLICAN SIDE
ANOTHER AND
STRONGER TEST
THE CNN WEBSITE
GIVES
EXIT POLLS DATA
FOR EVERY STATE
FOR EVERY STATE WE
NOW KNOW THE
PERCENT OF WHITES
VOTING OBAMA
FOR EVERY STATE WE
NOW KNOW THE
PERCENT OF BLACKS
VOTING OBAMA
WE ARE THUS ABLE TO
TEST A PROPOSITION
LIKLING INDIVIDUAL DATA
TO STATE DATA
A PROPOSITION WITH
TWO UNITS OF ANALYSIS
MAKE A GRAPH
PLOTTING THE PERCENT OF
BLACK POPULATION
AGAINST THE PERCENT OF
WHITES VOTING OBAMA
AND AGAINST THE PERCENT
OF BLACKS VOTING OBAMA
FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE
US BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS
WE KNOW FOR EVERY
STATE
THE PERCENT OF THE
POPULATION THAT IS
BLACK
OUR WHITES-DO-NOT-VOTE-FOR-A
BLACK-CANDIDATE HYPOTHESIS
IS CORROBORATED:
WHITES ARE LESS LIKELY TO
VOTE FOR OBAMA
IF THEY LIVE IN A STATE WITH A
HIGHER PERCENT OF BLACKS
BUT DOES THE HYPOTHESIS
APPLY TO SOUTHERN STATES
ONLY,
OR TO ALL KINDS OF
STATES?
THE NEXT GRAPH CONTAINS
SEPARATE LINES
ONLY IN SOUTHERN STATES
DOES THE PERCENT OF BLACKS
INFLUENCE THE WHITE VOTE
THE UPSHOT:
THE RACIAL DIVIDE
WAS NOT CROSSED
IN THE USA IN 2008
IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
WHITES ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE
REPUBLICAN THAN BLACKS
AND WHITES IN A STATE OR COUNTY WITH A
HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS ARE MORE
LIKLEY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN WHITES IN A
STATE OR COUNTY WITH A LOWER PERCENTAGE
0F BLACK INHABITANTS
IN ADDITION ,
IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS BLACK,
WHITES IN COUNTIES OR STATES WITH A HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN
IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS WHITE
THE ANSWER TO THIS PRESENTATION’S DOWHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION ?
EVEN NOW, WHITES DO NOT, REALLY
RELIGION SUPPOSEDLY PLAYS A BIG ROLE
IN US ELECTIONS TOO
HOW BIG WAS THAT ROLE IN 2004 AND
2008?
FIRST FORMULATE AN HYPOTHESIS ABOUT
THE NATURE OF THIS RELATIONSHIP
USE FOR THAT PURPOSE THE NEXT
CUTTING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL
HERALD TRIBUNE
COMPUTE ODDS RATIOS FOR
THE RELATION BETWEEN
CHURCH ATTENDANCE AND
VOTING
IN 2004 AND 2008
ON THE BASIS OF THE FIGURES
GIVEN IN THE IHT CLIPPING
COMPUTE OTHER PERTINENT
ODDS RATIOS FOR EFFECTS OF
WHITE EVANGELICANISM AND OF
CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN 2000,
2004 AND 2008
GIVEN THE FOLLOWING THREE
SETS OF FIGURES
FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE PEW
FORUM FOR RELIGION AND
PUBLIC LIFE
TELL EXACTLY WHICH
HYPOTHESES YOU ARE TESTING
THIS TIME
COMPUTE THESE ODDS
RATIOS FOR 1980, 1992, 2004
AND 2008 TOO
GIVEN THE FOUR EARLIER
GRAPHS FROM THE WEBSITE
OF THE IHT AND THE NYT
THE FIGURES ARE FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE
PEW FORUM FOR RELIGION AND PUBLIC LIFE
CHECK THIS CONCLUSION
GO TO THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE
AND
COMPUTE THE ODDS RATIO
FOR EVERY PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION
FROM 1980 TO 2008
WRITE UP YOUR COMMENTS
ON THE TIME SERIES !
THE MAP WITH COUNTIES AND
THE INCREASE IN THE PERCENT OF
REPUBLICAN VOTES
IS PART OF A SERIES OF 14 MAPS ON
THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE
WE NOW LOOK AT THEM
NOW WE PRESENT THE FOURTEEN IHT-NYT
WEBSITE MAPS ON ELECTORAL SHIFTS
THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE
NOW MOVES FROM
COUNTIES TO INDIVIDUALS
AS THE UNIT OF ANALYSIS
THE INDIVIDUAL DATA ARE FROM
EXIT POLLS
THE PREVIOUS SLIDE SHOWS A NICE CONTRAST
WITH THE NRC DATA FOR THE PERCENT OF
WHITE PERSONS VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008
SURE, THAT PERCENTAGE IS BELOW FIFTY IN
2008,
BUT IT INCREASED BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008
YET ALSO, THE PERCENT OF BLACK PERSONS
VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008 COMPARED WITH
2004 INCREASED EVEN MORE
THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE THEN GOES ON TO
PRESENT INDIVIDUAL DATA FOR STATES
SEPERATELY
SOMETIMES WE SEE THE LACK OF DATA
BECAUSE OF TOO SMALL N’s
IN THESE STATES THE ELECTORAL
OUTCOME WAS A CLIFF HANGER (TOSS-UP)
THE EXIT POLL DATA
FOR 1984, 1988, 1996 AND 2000
FROM THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE
NECESSARY TO
COMPUTE UNINTERRUPTED
TIME SERIES
THE END
AFTER
WHO VOTES FOR WHOM ?
THE QUESTION IS :
WHO GLOWS FOR WHOM ?