The Presidential Election 2008
Basic facts you really should
know
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The general election campaign traditionally runs from
the first Monday in September to the start of
November – 9 weeks
The fortunes of the parties are tracked frequently
through opinion polls
Features of the campaign:
Rallies by presidential and vice-presidential candidate
TV ads, both positive and negative
Live tv debates between presidential candidates and
separately between vice-presidential candidates
Setting the scene
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To win the presidency, a candidate must
win 270 votes in the Electoral College.
McCain just had to hold onto the states
Bush had won in 2004 to win
Obama needed all the Kerry states plus
a further 19 electoral college votes
Two time-bombs for McCain
Wall Street collapses
Meltdown Monday – Monday 15th September.
McCain never recovered in the polls
following this
McCain kept reiterating ‘the fundamentals of the
American economy are essentially sound’
Also, his campaign was bound to do better if
the focus was on national security and
terror – people trusted Obama more on the
economy
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McCain and Obama had contrasting strategies
towards the economy:
McCain offered experience and leadership
Obama offered ‘real change’ and a detailed
plan
Campaign can be summed up as man vs plan
or change vs experience
When Bush put his $700m bail out package
to Congress McCain made a mistake by
temporarily suspending his campaign and
going to Washington
2. Choice of Sarah Palin as running mate
 Rank and file Republicans were very excited
by her
 He had now solidified conservative support
for his ticket
 However, McCain had based his campaign on
experience and this could no longer be the
case
 Only a minority of voters thought Palin was
qualified to become President if anything
happened to McCain
 Palin was also going to alienate independents
 McCain’s team had not properly checked Palin
out
The role of the media
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Most Americans get their news of the
campaign from CNN or ABC daily
There are also political comment programmes
such as ‘Meet the Press’.
There are chat shows like ‘Larry King live’.
‘Saturday Night Live’ featured a wicked
impersonation of Palin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAuRgxFfb
3o
Political commercials
Candidates need to buy time
 Some can be negative
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOrmOvHysdU
Most during this campaign were not really nasty
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6reQLzgywzk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEehKNNMq_4
 However, Obama was able to out spend McCain plus
his primary campaign had gone on longer so he got
exposure then
 McCain’s ads were considered to be more negative
than Obama’s
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Televised presidential debates
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Are a traditional part of the campaign, usually 3 90
minute debates between presidential candidates and
one 90-minute debate between vice presidential
candidates
Often have a lot of hype, is a potential for gaffes but
often are not hugely significant in shaping the
outcome
An exception was 1980 debate between Reagan and
Carter and Reagan again n 1984
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=px7aRIhUkHY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoPu1UIBkBc
Rules of televised debates
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1. Style is more important than substance
E.g. Gore in 2000 kept rolling his eyes and interrupting Bush
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xFiHHdZkjU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=goDOmbdiT7w
2. Verbal gaffes can be costly
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8rg9c4pUrg
3. Good soundbites are helpful
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Up1kwoWSTkbFvKlWqE
Debates are more difficult for incumbents than for challengers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=It0Dtm1gFFQ
2008 presidential debates
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First presidential debate – was ‘podium’ style – quite formal and
was on the topic of national security but some time went on the
economy. Obama came across as more open
There was also clearly a generational difference, McCain
referred to Reagan’s SDI, no-one under 40 would know what it
was
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbyFL6hQ4sc
38% judged Obama the winner, 24% judged McCain the winner
Second presidential debate – was ‘town hall’ style – see poll
results for the first two debates
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riPkfUpjmHM
Final presidential debate – was a round table discussion. MCain
was feisty and Joe the plumber was mentioned frequently
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq7yJh08VHU
The impact of televised debates
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Evidence suggests they do more to CONFIRM what
the voters feel than to change voters minds.
They might also help convert passive voters e.g. in
2004 Kerry pulled back 8% from Bush to make the
race a dead heat after the debates
In recent years viewing figures have declined
In 2008 the figure was 45 million, however, 73 million
tuned in to watch Palin vs Biden
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXJ4Dk33cCQ
In only 4 of the last 7 elections has the candidate
judged to have won the debate gone on to win the
election
However, debate performance seemed to be key to
Obama’s surge in the polls in early October 2008