The McCain Nomination in 2008
The Effect of the Winner-Take-All Rule
Percentage of Primary Vote
Number of Delegates
California
McCain
Romney
42.3%
34.6%
155
15
47.5%
28.6%
54
3
55.4%
28.3%
52
0
51.8%
25.4%
87
0
36.6%
33.4%
24.8%
32
6
0
Illinois
McCain
Romney
New Jersey
McCain
Romney
New York
McCain
Romney
Oklahoma
McCain
Huckabee
Romney
Comparison of Super Tuesday 2008 & 2012
Super Tuesday - 2008
5th February
6th March
Alabama
Arkansas
Arizona
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Illinois
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Utah
West Virginia
Number of States:
Number of Delegates:
Cumulative % of
Delegates Selected
by this Date:
Super Tuesday - 2012
Georgia
Idaho
Massachusetts
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Virginia
Vermont
20
1081
55.17%
Number of States:
Number of Delegates:
Cumulative % of
Delegates Selected
by this Date:
9
466
35.48%
Republican Delegate Count to Date
Needed to Nominate: 1144
Soft* Total
Hard Total
Romney
435 (19.0%)
354 (15.0%)
Santorum
197
(8.6%)
131 (5.7%)
Gingrich
128
(5.6%)
107 (4.6%)
74
(3.2%)
23 (1.0%)
Paul
Uncommitted
73 (3.1%)
* “Soft” total includes estimates made for the number of delegates gained in ‘caucus’
states where the delegate selection process is not yet completed.
Obama Polling Match-Ups
Obama (48.6%) - Mitt Romney (45.0%)
Obama (49.6%) - Rick Santorum (43.6%)
Obama (51.8%) - Newt Gingrich (40.0%)
Obama (49.5%) - Ron Paul (43.0%)
Sourced from Real Clear Politics average of five polls (Rasmussen, NBC/Wall Street Journal, Politico/George
Washington University, USA Today/Gallup and Associated Press/Roper) taken between 16th February–10th March)
Electoral Vote in 2004 & 2008
270 Electoral Votes Required to Win
2004
George W. Bush
John Kerry
286
251
2008
John McCain
Barack Obama
173
365 (+95)
(-19)
The Kerry-Plus States
Colorado
Florida
Indiana
Iowa
Nevada
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Virginia
The Kerry-Plus States (with 2008 Electoral Vote)
Colorado
9
Florida
27
Indiana
11
Iowa
7
Nevada
5
New Mexico
5
North Carolina
15
Ohio
20
Virginia
13
_____________________
Total
112
The Kerry-Plus States
(with 2008 and 2012 Electoral Vote)
2008
2012
Colorado
9
9
Florida
27
29
Indiana
11
11
Iowa
7
6
Nevada
5
6
New Mexico
5
5
North Carolina
15
15
Ohio
20
18
Virginia
13
13
_______________________________
Total
112
112
(+2)
(-1)
(+1)
(-2)
Net Effect of Electoral College Redistribution
States Won By Obama in 2008
-6
States Won By McCain in 2008
+6
When applied to 2008 Electoral Vote ……
Obama
McCain
359
179
The Kerry-Plus States
(with 2008 Margin of Victory and 2012 Electoral Vote)
EVs
Margin
9
8.9%
54.5%
Florida
29
2.8%
51.4%*
Indiana
11
1.3%
50.5%*
Iowa
6
9.5%
54.9%*
Nevada
6
12.5%
56.4%
New Mexico
5
15.3%
57.6%
North Carolina
15
0.3%
50.2%*
Ohio
18
4.6%
52.3%*
Colorado
Share of Vote
Virginia
13
6.3%
53.2%*
_____________________________________________________
Total
112
*Potential loss = 92 EVs
Obama – The Electoral College Maths
1.
Needed to Win - 270 Electoral Votes
2.
Total in 2008 – 365 Electoral Votes (95 in excess of 270)
3.
Already lost 6 Electoral Votes from 2010 House of
Representatives reapportionment.
4.
Losses from six asterisked “Kerry-Plus” States
= 92 Electoral Votes
365 – 6 – 92 = 267 Electoral Votes