The
National
Association
Business
Political
Action
Committees
The
National
Association
ofof
Business
Political
Action
Committees
2012NABPAC
NABPACPOST-ELECTION
POST-ELECTION
2012
CONFERENCE
CONFERENCE
2012 Election Overview
2012 Election Overview
PRESENTED BY:
Hans Kaiser
November 16, 2012
State by State Voting
Electoral Votes
2008
Obama
McCain
365
173
2012
Obama
Romney
332
206
2012
= Obama
= Romney
Popular Vote
2008
Obama 69,456,897 (+ 9.5 million)
McCain 59,934,814
2012
Obama 62,615,406 (+ 3.5 million)
Romney 59,142,004
2
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Our 2010 NABPAC Presentation
• New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)
• Florida
(29 electoral votes)
• Ohio
(18 electoral votes)
• North Carolina
(15 electoral votes)
• Virginia
(13 electoral votes)
• Indiana
(11 electoral votes)
GOP nominee sits at:
265 Electoral Votes
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What Happened
New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)
Romney
Net
• Florida
(29 electoral votes)
- 0.9
• Ohio
(18 electoral votes)
-1.9
• North Carolina
(15 electoral votes)
+2.2
• Virginia
(13 electoral votes)
-3.0
• Indiana
(11 electoral votes)
+10.5
GOP nominee sits at:
205 Electoral Votes
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Swing States:
Real Clear Politics – Polling Averages
vs. Actual Results
RCP average
Actual result
Net Obama over
RCP average
CO
Obama +1.5
Obama +4.7
+3.2
FL
Romney +1.5
Obama +0.9
+2.4
IA
Obama +2.4
Obama +5.6
+3.2
MN
Obama +5.2
Obama +7.7
+2.5
MI
Obama +4.0
Obama +9.5
+5.5
NC
Romney +3.0
Romney +2.2
+0.8
NV
Obama +2.8
Obama +6.6
+3.8
NH
Obama +2.0
Obama +5.8
+3.8
OH
Obama +2.9
Obama +1.9
-1.0
PA
Obama +3.8
Obama +5.2
+1.4
VA
Obama +0.3
Obama +3.0
+2.7
WI
Obama +4.2
Obama +6.7
+2.5
Obama average over performance +2.6
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What If … ?
In each swing state the average Obama bump of 2.6%
went toward Romney; Romney would have won:
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
New Hampshire
Virginia
61 Electoral Votes
Total 267 Electoral Votes
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And What If … ?
Each state swung toward Romney by the average Obama
bump in that particular state, Romney would have won
those states:
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
9
29
6
Michigan
Nevada
16
6
New Hampshire 4
Virginia
13
83 Electoral Votes
Total 289 Electoral Votes
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Presidential Vote by Party ID
2012
100%
93%
Obama
2008
100%
92%
90%
Romney
80%
80%
60%
60%
45%
40%
20%
20%
0%
Network News Exit Polls
Democrats
(38%)
10%
9%
7%
Independents
(29%)
89%
44%
40%
Republicans
(32%)
McCain
52%
50%
6%
Obama
0%
Republicans
(32%)
Independents
(29%)
Democrats
(39%)
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Presidential Vote by Ethnicity
2012
+4
100%
80%
100%
Romney
-8
95%
McCain
-20
73%
71%
+15
59%
60%
40%
Obama
Obama
93%
+8
2008
58%
27%
67%
60%
38%
39%
80%
62%
55%
43%
40%
31%
26%
20%
66%
35%
31%
20%
6%
4%
0%
White
(72%)
Black
(13%)
Network News Exit Polls
Hispanic/
Latino
(10%)
Asian
(3%)
Other
(2%)
0%
White
(74%)
Black
(13%)
Hispanic/
Latino
(9%)
Asian
(2%)
Other
(3%)
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Presidential Vote by Gender/White
2012
100%
2008
100%
Obama
Obama
McCain
Romney
80%
+11
80%
+7
62%
56%
60%
42%
40%
35%
40%
20%
20%
0%
0%
White men
(34%)
Network News Exit Polls
57%
60%
White women
(38%)
41%
White men
(36%)
53%
46%
White women
(39%)
10
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Presidential Vote by Gender/Black
2012
100%
+14
Obama
87%
2008
96%
100%
+0
Obama
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
20%
11%
5%
3%
0%
Black men
(5%)
Network News Exit Polls
96%
McCain
Romney
80%
20%
95%
Black women
(8%)
3%
0%
Black men
(5%)
Black women
(7%)
11
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Presidential Vote by Gender/Latino
2012
100%
80%
2008
100%
Obama
Romney
-1
McCain
76%
-15
80%
65%
68%
64%
60%
40%
Obama
60%
40%
33%
33%
30%
23%
20%
20%
0%
0%
Latino men
(5%)
Network News Exit Polls
Latino women
(6%)
Latino men
(4%)
Latino women
(5%)
12
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Presidential Vote by Area of Residence
2012
100%
2008
100%
Obama
Obama
McCain
Romney
80%
+2
62%
40%
+12
+4
60%
80%
59%
48%50%
39%
36%
63%
60%
40%
20%
50% 48%
53%
45%
35%
20%
0%
City
(32%)
Network News Exit Polls
Suburbs
(47%)
Rural
(21%)
0%
City
(30%)
Suburbs
(49%)
Rural
(21%)
13
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Presidential Voting by 2011 Total
Family Income
100%
Obama
Romney
80%
63%
57%
60%
42%
40%
46%
54%
52%
44%
47%
55%
52%
42%
35%
20%
0%
Under $30,000
(20%)
Network News Exit Polls
$30,000$49,999
(21%)
$50,000$99,000
(31%)
$100,000$199,999
(21%)
$200,000$249,999
(3%)
$250,000 or
more
(4%)
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$50K was the Dividing Line
2011 Total Family Income
Under $50,000
$50,000 or more
Obama
Romney
Obama
Romney
NATIONAL
60%
38%
45%
53%
CO
59%
39%
49%
49%
FL
59%
40%
43%
55%
IA
59%
38%
48%
50%
MI
62%
36%
48%
51%
NC
55%
44%
45%
55%
NH
60%
38%
49%
49%
NV
67%
30%
42%
56%
OH
59%
39%
44%
55%
PA
67%
31%
43%
56%
VA
61%
37%
47%
52%
WI
62%
37%
45%
54%
Network News Exit Polls
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Most Important Issue
Which one of these four issues is the most
important facing the country?
Obama
Romney
Net
Obama
Economy (59%)
47%
51%
-4%
Health care (18%)
75%
24%
+51%
Federal budget deficit (15%)
32%
66%
-34%
Foreign policy (5%)
56%
33%
+23%
• Obama won health care and foreign policy voters.
• Romney won deficit voters.
• Economy voters were divided. Romney needed to win
these voters to win the election.
Network News Exit Polls
16
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Condition of Economy
Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is:
100%
Obama
90%
85%
Romney
80%
60%
55%
42%
40%
20%
NA
NA
12%
9%
0%
Excellent
(2%)
Network News Exit Polls
Good
(21%)
Not so good
(45%)
Poor
(31%)
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Family Financial Situation
Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation:
100%
Obama
84%
80%
80%
Romney
58%
60%
40%
40%
20%
15%
18%
0%
Better today
(25%)
Network News Exit Polls
Worse today
(33%)
About the same
(41%)
18
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Blame for Economy?
It’s Bush’s Fault
Who is more to blame for current economic problems, Barack Obama or George W. Bush?
80%
Barack Obama
George W. Bush
57%
60%
53%
40%
38%
51%
51%
42%
36%
57%
53%
52%
49%
37%
40%
38%
38%
52%
51%
43%
40%
54%
41%
34%
20%
NA
0%
National
CO
Network News Exit Polls
FL
IA
MI
NC
NH
NV
OH
PA
VA
WI
19
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Biggest Economic Problem
Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?
Obama
63%
The housing market (8%)
54%
Unemployment (38%)
44%
32%
Taxes (14%)
66%
49%
49%
Rising prices (37%)
0%
Network News Exit Polls
Romney
32%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20
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Candidate Qualities
Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?
Obama
42%
Shares my values (27%)
38%
Is a strong leader (18%)
61%
Cares about people like
me (21%)
81%
18%
Has a vision for the
future (29%)
45%
54%
0%
Network News Exit Polls
Romney
55%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
21
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Obama Cares about People
Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?
-Shares my values -Is a strong leader -Cares about people like me -Has a vision for the future
100%
90%
80%
Obama
90%
84%
83%
81%
83%
82%
83%
77%
Romney
82%
82%
86%
60%
40%
20%
18%
15%
14%
17%
22%
16%
9%
7%
15%
17%
17%
12%
0%
National CO
(21%) (16%)
Network News Exit Polls
FL
(19%)
IA
(24%)
MI
(23%)
NC
(20%)
NH
(21%)
NV
(18%)
OH
(22%)
PA
(20%)
VA
(22%)
WI
(24%)
22
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Obama is More in Touch
Who is more in touch with people like you?
80%
Obama
Romney
60%
53%
55%
51%
43%
55%
49%
46%
42%
49%
41%
40%
56%
55%
52%
51%
47%
42%
39%
50%
46%
44%
41%
45%
52%
45%
20%
0%
National
CO
Network News Exit Polls
FL
IA
MI
NC
NH
NV
OH
PA
VA
WI
23
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Candidate Policies
Do Barack Obama’s/Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor:
60%
Obama's policies
53%
Romney's policies
44%
40%
34%
31%
20%
10%
2%
0%
The rich
The middle class
The poor
Network News Exit Polls
24
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Vote for President
Which best describes your vote for president today?
Obama
54%
I strongly favor my
candidate (65%)
45%
42%
I like my candidate but
with reservations (23%)
57%
41%
I dislike the other
candidate (10%)
51%
0%
Network News Exit Polls
Romney
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
25
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What’s Ahead?
26
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What’s Ahead?
Party ID
2008
2010
2012
2014
Republicans
32%
36%
32%
?
Independents
29%
28%
29%
?
Democrats
39%
36%
38%
?
Philosophy
2008
2010
2012
2014
Liberals
22%
20%
25%
?
Moderates
44%
39%
41%
?
Conservatives
34%
41%
35%
?
Network News Exit Polls
27
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Income Taxes
Should income tax rates:
Obama
52%
Increase for all (13%)
44%
70%
Increase only on income
over $250,000 (47%)
29%
23%
Not increase for anyone
(35%)
75%
0%
Network News Exit Polls
Romney
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
28
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Taxes and the Deficit
Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit?
Obama
73%
Romney
Yes (33%)
24%
37%
No (63%)
61%
0%
Network News Exit Polls
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
29
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Illegal Immigrants
Should most illegal immigrants working in the United State be:
Obama
Offered a chance to apply
for legal status (65%)
37%
24%
Deported to the country
they came from (28%)
73%
0%
Network News Exit Polls
Romney
61%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
30
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Shift in Make-Up of Electorate’s
White Voters in Key States
% White Voters
CO
FL
OH
NV
2008
81%
71%
83%
69%
2012
78%
67%
79%
64%
Shift
-3%
-4%
-4%
-5%
Network News Exit Polls
31
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Same-Sex Marriage
Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage?
100%
Obama
Romney
80%
74%
73%
60%
40%
25%
25%
20%
0%
Yes
(49%)
Network News Exit Polls
No
(46%)
32
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GOP Vote
2008
2010
2012
2014
Independents
-8
+18
+5
?
65+
+8
+21
+12
?
Catholics
-9
+10
-2
?
Rural
+8
+28
+20
?
White
+12
+23
+20
?
Men
-1
+14
+7
?
Suburban
-2
+13
+2
?
Women
-13
+1
-11
?
Network News Exit Polls
33
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Contact Information
Moore Information
2130 SW Jefferson Street
Suite 200
Portland, OR 97201
503.221.3100
428 4th Street
Suite 8
Annapolis, MD 21403
410.216.9856
www.moore-info.com
Bob Moore, bobm@moore-info.com
Hans Kaiser, hansk@moore-info.com
www.facebook.com/mooreinformation
34
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