Y2K: OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RESEARCH
Stuart Umpleby
Kinds of Research
• Research as engagement
• Learnings so far
• Research as observation
A Y2K Plan
• Awareness-building
• Assessment
• Remediation or
replacement
• Testing
• Independent
verification and
validation
• Implementation
• Work with suppliers
and customers
• Contingency planning
Research as Engagement
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Newsweek
World Wide Web
Colleagues
Compac
FCC
WDC Y2K
Austria
Research as Engagement 2
• Panel discussions at GW
• International Emergency Managers
• Summer of 1998 -- Gordon, lectures,
solution
• Washington Post panels
• Spring 1999 EPA
• July conference -- Ferguson
• Halloween -- Indonesia
Learnings: Management
• Few managers understand the infrastructure
of modern society
• Bureaucracies are designed to deal with
recurring, not novel problems
• Management science has focused on
optimizing processes rather than how to
create resilient organizations
Learnings: Politics
• Leaders are more concerned with avoiding
association with problems than with solving
or managing problems
• Leaders in both parties and at all levels,
including corporations, have avoided
discussing y2k
• The press has followed the suggestions of
national leaders in covering y2k
Learnings: Economics 1
• The standard equilibrium model does not
cope well with a universal problem
triggered by a point in time
• The equilibrium model assumes there is
time for organizations to adapt
• Some firms may gain market share and
others may lose market share, but many
firms do not simultaneously stop
functioning
Learnings: Economics 2
• Rational self-interest is a much weaker
motivator than tradition or inertia
• The efficient market hypothesis applies only
to routine kinds of information
• The bias of investment advisers toward
market growth and stability outweighs
client interests
Learnings: Sociology
• The interests of the economy and of society
have diverged
• The needs of the economy take precedence
over the needs of people
• Preparation implies there is an alternative to
the current social and economic system
• Management culture is about careers more
than stewardship either of organizations or
of society
Learnings: Psychology
• Few people seek to understand new
phenomena
• Y2K is a threat to coping with more routine
concerns
• The percentage of systems thinkers in
society is small
Research opportunities 1
• Which societies were more vulnerable to
disruptions -- well-prepared high tech
societies or less prepared low tech
societies?
• Why were some organizations / societies
more resilient than others?
• What style of leadership / organizational
structure / org. culture responded best?
Research opportunities 2
• What is the geography of cyberspace, not
just the internet but all information
processing machines?
• How does a society make a sudden
transition to a lower level of consumption?
• How does a society “reboot” its economy?
Research opportunities 3
• Which communities were most prepared
and why?
• What is the appropriate role of universities
in dealing with a problem such as y2k?
• What kinds of people were most successful
at understanding y2k?
Possible institutional changes
• Accounting firms may be asked to review
IT assets and contingency plans as well as
financial assets
• New types of international cooperation
• New roles for associations
• New functions for universities and think
tanks
• More interest in local government
The upside of y2k
• We shall learn a lot about complex systems
• Unprecedented research opportunities -- an
extraordinary social experiment
• Opportunities for public service
• Opportunities to redesign government
services
Www.gwu.edu/~y2k
• List of my publications and presentations
• List of panel discussions arranged at GW
including powerpoint slides and Real Video
• List of future symposia and conferences -before and after studies of y2k
• Surveys
• Access to press clippings, books,
preparedness tips, key documents, etc.
Presumed stages of y2k
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Unawareness / denial
Planning / preparation
Urgency / panic
Response / recovery
Dangers
• Chemical and nuclear spills
• Failure of urban utilities
• Disruption of manufacturing -unemployment
• Failure of government services,
decentralization, rise of local mafias
• Dramatic drop in international trade
• Terrorism and sabotage
How we may escape dire
consequences
• If there is less faulty equipment than
currently estimated
• If the faulty equipment that exists does not
cause critical problems
• If more repairs have been made than are
currently estimated
• If organizations are very effective at work
arounds and fixing on failure