Peter Ince
U.S. Forest Service
Forest Products Laboratory
Madison, WI
PROJECTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
RELATED TO BIOENERGY
Topics:
2010 RPA Forest Assessment
U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)
FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM
Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs
The U.S. Forest Service produces 50-year
projections of forest resource trends in the
RPA Assessment reports every five years:
Recent RPA
Assessment
Reports
(2002, 2007)
2010 RPA FOREST ASSESSMENT
RPA research includes
long-range modeling
of trends in wood
supply and demand
P
S
D
Q
2010 RPA FOREST ASSESSMENT
Developing Long-Range
Forest Product Market
Projections for the 2010
RPA Assessment . . .
Approach:
 Global Forest Products Model (GFPM)
 U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM)
 RPA Scenarios (based on IPCC SRES)
 Linkages to other RPA Models . . .
2010 RPA Models and Scenario Analysis
IPCC Global
Scenarios
Socioeconomic
Variables
Bioenergy
Forecasts
Global Forest
Products Model
Translation /
Downscaling
Climate
Forecasts
US Forest Products
Module (USFPM)
Timber harvest & supply
Translation /
Downscaling
Forest Dynamics
Model
Domestic
Macroeconomics
and Demographics
Forecasts
Forest area supply
Land Use Model
Forecasted
Forest Conditions
and Land Use
Forecasted
Wood Products and Timber Outputs
and prices
Carbon
Accounting
Ecosystem Services
Wildlife, Water, Recreation, Forage
Landscape
Structure
For the 2010 RPA Assessment, we developed the “U.S.
Forest Products Module” (USFPM) within the Global
Forest Products Model (GFPM):
2010 RPA FOREST ASSESSMENT
Rationale for global model & linkages:
 Globalization of forest product markets
 Global expansion of biomass energy
 Forest impacts of global climate change
 Global forest & market interactions
2010 RPA FOREST ASSESSMENT
RPA Assessment Objectives:
To Provide Long-Range Information
(50-year projections) about the Status
and Trends of the Nation’s Renewable
Resources on Forests and Grasslands
-----------------------------------------------
Special focus of 2010 RPA Assessment
 IPCC Global Socioeconomic and
Climate Scenarios . . .
with global bioenergy outlook
2010 RPA FOREST ASSESSMENT
Some basics about USFPM
(U.S. Forest Products Module for 2010 RPA):
We built USFPM to run inside the GFPM (when we
USFPM we also run the global analysis)
 USFPM expands what was originally a single region
GFPM (USA among 180 other countries)

run
in the
USFPM models timber supply, timber harvest, and
forest
product production in the three U.S.
subregions (North,
South, West):

We model U.S. wood supply and demand at several
market levels in USFPM . . .
Harvest
Timber
(standing
trees, or
stumpage)
Mills
Timber
Product
Outputs
(delivered
logs & chips)
Forest
Product s
We model “wood fuel feedstock” demand =
harvested fuelwood and fuel residues. . .
Harvest
Mills
TPO
Timber
Fuelwood
Harvest
Wood Fuel Feedstock
Fuel
Residues
Compared to the GFPM, USFPM has a much more completeregional
supply structure for wood and wood fiber, with base year (2006) timber
supplies calibrated precisely to Forest Service regional FIA data and TPO
data by species group:
GFPM
USFPM
Industrial Roundwood
Fuelwood
Softwood Sawtimber
Hardwood Sawtimber
Softwood Non-Sawtimber
Hardwood Non-Sawtimber
Other Indust. Rndwd.
Other Fiber Pulp
Wastepaper
Other Fiber Pulp
Recovered Paper
Softwood Ag. SRWC
Hardwood Ag. SRWC
Mill Residues
Sawlogs/Veneer logs
Other Indust. Rndwd
Harvest Residue
Fuel Feedstock
Pulpwood/Comp.
FIA/TPO data elements in USFPM (corresponding to data
in RPA “Forest Resources” report, GTR-WO-78 ):





Sawtimber & Non-Sawtimber harvests (HW/SW)
Timber Product Outputs per unit of timber harvest
Harvest Residues per unit of timber harvest
Fuel & Fiber (Mill) Residue outputs (HW/SW)
Forest Inventories & Net Annual Growth (HW/SW)
(GTR-WO-78)
USFPM also allows “cascading” economic substitution of raw materials
into fiber or energy products based on prices and costs – i.e. if demand or
prices for fuel or pulpwood become high enough, they can consume
higher value inputs:
Sawlogs
Agric. SRWC
Pulpwood/Composite
Logging Residue
60% of logging residue can
be recovered and used for
fuel feedstock, but this
requires a price higher than
current fuelwood price, to
pay for residue recovery
expense
Fiber Residue
Fuel Residue
Fuel Feedstock
PROJECTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
RELATED TO BIOENERGY
FIA/TPO data relevant to bioenergy in USFPM include . . .
Fuelwood Harvest & Logging Residue
supplies, modeled as “by-products”
of timber harvest activities in USFPM
Fuel Residue (mill residue) supply,
modeled in USFPM as “by-products” of
forest product production activities
Fuel Feedstock demand = Total wood demand for energy
including fuelwood, fuel residues, and “cascading”
supplies of pulpwood, SRWC, logging residues, etc.
Summary
 USFPM model developed for 2010 RPA using FIA/TPO fuelwood
harvest, fuel residue and logging residue data
 USFPM also models potential “cascading” use of logging
residues, pulpwood, Ag. SRWC, and even sawlogs for energy (but
only if economical to do so)
 The “Fuel Feedstock Demand” encompasses all wood demands
for energy (not differentiated by end use)
PROJECTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
RELATED TO BIOENERGY
RPA Wood Energy
Scenarios (IPCC)
According to IPCC (and RPA scenarios), the
peaking of global petroleum output will
occur within the next couple of decades . . .
IPCC (SRES): World petroleum output peaks during
2020-2030 in all three of our scenarios . . . Peaking of oil
causes subsequent massive increases in bio-energy
{
250
200
Exajoules (=10
18
joules)
300
150
100
A1B
A2
B2
50
0
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
1990
RPA Scenarios: We calibrate U.S. demand growth for
wood fuel feedstock to IPCC scenarios on biomass
energy production, as shown here . . .
Exajoules (=1018 joules)
50
~6X
A1B
A2
B2
40
~5X
30
20
~2X
10
0
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2010
2000
Projections calibrated to 6 EJ primary biomass energy in 2000 (as in B2 scenario)
Massive (~6X) increase in U.S. wood fuel feedstock demand
(2010-2060) is a feature of A1B scenario. Energy demands
eat into pulpwood, mill residues & harvest residues . . .
U.S. Fuel Feedstock Output by Source & A1B Projection (MMCM)
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1970
1980
RW Harvest
Harvest Residue
1990
2000
Fuel Residue
Howard RW
2010
2020
SW Pulpwood
TPO Fuel Residue
2030
2040
HW Pulpwood
2050
2060
Fiber Residue
Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) more than triples(!) in
A1 scenario, with expanding wood energy & net exports:
USFPM A1 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)
1,800
Residue Removal
1,600
Agric. SRWC
1,400
Non-Sawtimber
1,200
Sawtimber
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lower in the A2
scenario, with lower wood energy and lower net exports:
USFPM A2 Projection - Total U.S. Wood Harvest (MMCM)
1,800
Residue Removal
1,600
Agric. SRWC
1,400
Non-Sawtimber
1,200
Sawtimber
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Total U.S. wood harvest (all sources) is lowest in the B2
scenario, with not quite a doubling in harvest by 2060:
USFPM B2 Projection - Total Forest Biomass Supply (MMCM)
1,800
Residue Removal
1,600
Agric. SRWC
1,400
Non-Sawtimber
1,200
Sawtimber
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
Potential Future Bioenergy Data Needs
 USFPM calibrated to current FIA/TPO data (WO-GTR-78) does
not require additional wood bioenergy data
 However, if bioenergy use expands, future RPA models (2015
RPA?) may need more detailed wood energy data, such as
harvest and residue volumes by more detailed wood energy
categories (conventional fuelwood, wood for fuel pellets, wood
biomass burned for electric power, wood biomass for liquid fuels,
etc.)
PROJECTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
RELATED TO BIOENERGY